12:42pm: Cora told reporters this afternoon, including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, that Casas is headed for an MRI in Boston tomorrow and that there is concern he could be in for a “lengthy” absence. The manager added that the team intends to discuss its options tomorrow. Abraham adds that Casas told reporters this afternoon that he’s in “a lot of pain” due to the injury and feels it when swinging the bat.
April 21, 9:32am: The Red Sox officially placed Casas on the 10-day injured list with a left rib strain this morning, recalling Heineman in the corresponding move. Heineman, 33 in June, has participated in parts of four MLB seasons and struggled with the bat during his limited time in the majors, slashing just .218/.297/.282 in 104 career games.
April 20: Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas exited today’s game against the Pirates in the first inning due to what the club has termed left rib discomfort. As noted by Chris Cotillo of MassLive, manager Alex Cora indicated to reporters after the game that he was “concerned” about Casas’s injury and that the first baseman had left the ballpark to undergo further testing. While it’s not entirely clear how serious Casas’s injury is, it appears the club is at least preparing for the possibility that an IL stint will be required as Cotillo also reports that journeyman catcher Tyler Heineman is set to join the club in Pittsburgh tomorrow as the only healthy position player on the club’s 40-man roster who isn’t already on the active roster.
If Casas were to miss an extended period of time, it would be brutal news for the Red Sox. The 24-year-old slugger has gotten off to an excellent start so far this season with a .244/.337/.513 slash line with six home runs in just 89 trips to the plate. The youngster’s strong numbers early in the 2024 season are a continuation of his hot second half last year, when he slashed an incredible .317/.417/.617 in 211 trips to the plate after the All Star break.
It’s the latest in a series of injury woes for Boston, as the club has already lost Trevor Story, Vaughn Grissom, Tyler O’Neill, and Romy Gonzalez to the injured list while Rafael Devers has missed each of the last three games after dealing with discomfort in his left knee earlier this week that eventually required him to be sent for an MRI. If even one of Devers or Casas, the Red Sox would be stretched incredible thin in terms of infield depth, and IL stints for both of the club’s regular corner infielders would leave the club with a patchwork infield involving none of the club’s on-paper starters on the first.
Center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela has taken over at shortstop in recent days following Story’s injury, while Enmanuel Valdez has filled in for Grissom at second base to this point in the season. Bobby Dalbec has filled in for Devers at third base in recent days and has plenty of experience at first that could allow him to replace Casas as needed, leaving the likes of Pablo Reyes and David Hamilton to act as utility infielders off the bench and/or handle the hot corner in Devers’ stead if necessary.
Cotillo also notes that outfielder Rob Refsnyder took reps at first base while rehabbing earlier this season, but the 33-year-old hasn’t appeared on the infield dirt since 2018 and any appearances on the infield would further deplete an outfield mix that has already lost Rafaela to the infield and O’Neill to the injured list. With that being said, depth options such as Dalton Guthrie and Eddy Alvarez are available at the Triple-A level to be called up if necessary, though neither is currently on the 40-man roster and would therefore require a corresponding move to be made in order for Boston to select their respective contracts.
User 4204968895
This is what happens when you acquire no MLB depth in the offseason….
SODOMOJO
Dude, you guys are dropping like flies. I feel for ya, I think all of our teams have had years like this where it’s just one thing after another
User 4204968895
Thanks SODOMOJO. Long season so far, for sure, but Boston fans have had plenty to cheer about in the last few decades so we’ll ride this out with the Sox.
GASoxFan
A chunk of this injury needs to be blamed on Casas. He felt an injury a while ago and kept trying to play through it. At the time, arguably, it was much more minor as he acknowledged it gave little discomfort and he kept playing until it caused so much pain it interfered with breathing.
All in pursuit of keeping a streak going, hoping to put pressure on for extension money.
That’s not smart baseball, not team baseball, and, not a team player – a concept he’s struggled with since first coming up and refusing to do anything to change *his* ways, *his* priorities, and, try and fit in the clubhouse.
That’s a character issue to me, and, a good reason not to extend him. I think the more that attitude continues, the more trouble he will become through the years as a clubhouse fit.
all in the suit that you wear
They can only fit 40 players on the 40 man roster and they are running out. This is not a lack of depth problem.
MafiaBass
It is, because the people replacing the starters should be of at least replacement quality, and they are not. These scrubs in the majors should have been the third line of call-ups, not the second.
Mi Casas es tu Casas
Ignorant comment bro. The Red Sox have only 16 position players on their 40, not nearly enough because they have too many pitchers. And depth means competent not just bodies.
Salvi
First off, Red Sox have 17 position players on their 40 (18 if you count Story).
Secondly, there is not a lock on the 40-man. If they want to bring someone up, they can move a player onto the 60-day IL or waive someone.
It isnt a hinderance on the makeup of the 26-man roster. In fact, they just put Heineman on the 40-man without any trouble. And by Tuesday they’ll probably remove Heineman for someone else.
tff17
Heineman was already on the 40.
NavalHistorian
Unless Casas goes on the 60-day IL, the Red Sox will have eight injured players on the IL who still count toward their 40-man. That’s their basic problem. Thankfully for them, Vaughn Grissom progressed from DHing to playing the field for AAA Worcester on Thursday and Friday. He might be back soon.
I will give you that their 40-man seems a little imbalanced to me. Exempting guys like Giolito, Hendricks and Chris Murphy who are on the 60-day IL, the Red Sox have 24 pitchers on their 40-man, including 7 minor leaguers. According to the Worcester and Portland rostrers, Heineman is the only minor league position player on the Red Sox 40-man, healthy or not.
Mi Casas es tu Casas
Red Sox are idiots for having no positional depth.
Occams_hairbrush
They lost their entire starting infiield to injury.
You think they should have another group of starters sitting around ready to go? It doesn’t work like that.
MafiaBass
Accurate, the the people getting the call should be better than these dudes are, and Breslow had all offseason to fix that.
Hotdog 2
Dummy^
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
We had a ton of outfield depth…not sure what you are referring to. Everyone has to complain about something and next we know, it’s Cora’s fault.
We signed O’Neill but we knew his injury situation before we signed him. Can’t blame all the others on not getting depth when we basically started the season with 7 outfielders.
You can’t complain about pitching, so you have to find something else to complain about.
luckyh
ONeill was hurt in a collision. Who wouldn’t have gotten hurt from that?
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Doesn’t matter how he got injured, he’s still injury prone, but my point is that even so, we had depth. The opening poster just wants something to blame the Sox for despite our pitching being good so far this year.
Holden Bases
Injury prone is a myth, mostly. He plays a position that comes with a high risk of injury, unlike, say, third base.
KingKen
Running into another player on a play and suffering a concussion is not an “injury prone” situation.
Mi Casas es tu Casas
Anyone smart enough to call for the GD baseball.
Randy Red Sox
yeah because there is nothing to really complain about the Red Sox
Occams_hairbrush
I mean, what kind of “depth” would cover losing 5 of your starters?
JoeBrady
Of course.
We should’ve signed 4 extra infielders, 3 extra SPs, 1 extra RPs, and have 48 guys on the 40-man roster.
Or we could act like Dodger and Astro fans, and root for the kids while waiting for guys to return.
Poolhalljunkies
Didnt they sign cron as depth at 1b?..and he wasnt good enough to beat dalbec out of camp..aside from signing belt can anyone name some 1b guys we missed on?
Occams_hairbrush
Refsnyder played first with the Yankees. I’d rather have him out there.
Poolhalljunkies
Even the braves and dodgers would be hard pressed to cover 5 regular position players and 3 starters..
I mean this “depth” argument held water ..but come on this ship is on fire while at the bottom of boston harbor..the fact they are above 500 tells you the “depth” they do have is pretty damn good..and nobody here thought they would win without adding 2 front line pitchers..so..what would some extra “depth” meaning they cant start for 29 other teams ..position players matter? Move around deck chairs on the sinking ship..get real
FatChance65
At what point do we start questioning their trainers and strength and conditioning practices due to all the injuries?
Rking
Just hoping it’s nothing serious. Worrisome he needed to leave the ballpark.
Fever Pitch Guy
Fat – Let’s look at the list of injuries:
Giolito’s injury was a pre-existing one that may have become severe because of a new grip he was taught to use.
Story’s injury was on a bad dive.
Both the Devers and O’Neill injuries were related to neither player calling for a fly ball.
Whitlock has always been injury prone, even with the Yankees organization.
You may have a point with Pivetta and Grissom, and we just don’t know yet about Casas.
Did I miss anyone?
FatChance65
Fever—Don’t think so, but that’s enough.
Fever Pitch Guy
Fat – I intentionally left off Romy, because a 28-year-old with a career .602 OPS who was acquired off waivers isn’t a big loss. Nevertheless, he’a always been injury prone …. same as Campbell.
all in the suit that you wear
“Giolito’s injury was a pre-existing one”
========================================
Giolito made the most starts of any pitcher in MLB last season. He has been a model of durability.
2018: 32 starts, 173.1 innings pitched
2019: 29, 176.2
2020: 12, 72.1 (60 game season)
2021: 31, 178.2
2022: 30, 161.2
2023: 33*, 184.1
*most in MLB
tff17
So you are saying there was a lot of mileage on his arm? 🙂
When you get injured that early in the spring, it is usually something from the previous season that never healed.
all in the suit that you wear
TFF17: My point is that I don’t think Giolito’s injury was predictable or the Red Sox fault as Fever Pitch Guy is implying.
tff17
I certainly didn’t predict it…. Should we blame the Braves for Spencer Strider? A lot of TJ injuries this year.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – Thank you for providing yet another example of statistics being misused with the absence of critical thinking.
Pitcher injuries are often degenerative, which means existing injuries get worse over time. A smart pitcher will continue to pitch through it if they are coming up on a contract year, but the performance will decline. This was the case with Giolito, who absolutely sucked for the past two years but obviously didn’t want to miss out on a big free agent contract …. which of course the Red Sox gave him.
As one example, there was a pitcher probably before your time named John Lackey. From 2005-2009 he was one of the best starting pitchers in the league. During that time he averaged 30 starts and 198 innings pitched with a fantastic 3.49 ERA.
Then in 2010 his performance suddenly took a dive even though he pitched 215 innings that year. He was pitching with an injury, but didn’t reveal that fact. Finally in 2011 when he absolutely sucked with a 6.41 ERA he decided to go under the knife.
And guess what?
From 2013-2016 he was back to being one of the best starting pitchers in MLB. Talk about consistency, he AGAIN averaged 30 starts and 198 IP and an even better 3.35 ERA!! I love statistics, and seeing how similar his were between a 5-year period and a 4-year period puts a big smile on my face.
Moral of the story, pitchers sometimes hide injuries but it shows up in sudden unexplained drops in performance. For a little more recent example, look at Chris Sale’s numbers between 2012-2018 and then look at his 2019 numbers when he was pitching through an injury.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Thank you! Unfortunately what’s obvious to you, me and every true baseball fan is not obvious to some. Or they are simply trying to defend an indefensible signing by the Red Sox.
all in the suit that you wear
“pitchers sometimes hide injuries”
=================================
So, there is no actual evidence of Giolito having a pre-existing injury other than your imagination. Sale did have a pre-existing injury as he missed time due to left shoulder inflammation in 2018 before Dombrowski signed him to the extension.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – Yeah when a pitcher has a 3.47 ERA and 1.076 WHIP from 2019-2021 and then sucks with a 4.89 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in 2022-2023 that shouldn’t raise any injury flags …. yeah right.
I know you’re not that dumb, you just always defend ownership and the front office …. and I know why.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – I just provided the “evidence” yet again, Giolito’s sudden performance drop from 2019-2021 to 2022-2023.
Or the fact Giolito’s spin rate and velo both dropped down below the 40th percentile last year.
As for Sale, he was given a clean bill of health in ST before the extension. I’ve said many times Dombrowski should have waited before giving him that extension, but it’s comical you support the medicals on Gio and not on Sale.
all in the suit that you wear
Comical? Sale missed time on the IL and Giolito made the most starts in MLB before the Red Sox signed them.
I Love Fever Pitch Guy
The thing is, Fever, whether or not you’re right about Giolito or not, you didn’t say you didn’t like the deal because he was injured, yet, you are saying it now. I can’t in good conscience give you credit there. It’s kind of like saying “I told you so,” but you really didn’t claim it before, at least from the posts I saw.
I love what you do but I can’t give you credit here. Go back and hire your king, Dave Dombrowski. Maybe he can fix the problems.
tff17
Nah, the Giolito signing was fine with me. Not my money, and not like ownership was going to spring for somebody better.
There’s a risk to any signing of any pitcher, no guarantee that this one would work out poorly even with the warning signs you noted. And they needed SOMEBODY. (I wanted two veteran SP to add to the very limited depth.)
At least they dodged the Snell bullet.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – Not sure how you missed my point, but I’ll say it again.
You accused Dombrowski of extending Sale despite (according to you) a known injury.
But you defend the Red Sox for not recognizing all the injury warning flags with Giolito.
That’s what is comical. Two identical situations where the Sox medical staff cleared a starting pitcher at the time they signed a contract, with each player requiring major surgery shortly after, and yet you defend one front office staff while criticizing the other.
The hypocrisy, and reason behind it, is what’s comical.
kcmark
And being in a contract year.
tff17
That’s the thing, ILFPG. If I didn’t pan the deal when it was signed, I don’t get to pan it now. I never *loved* the deal, as some did, because I saw Giolito as a serviceable #3 starter. But I figured he would at least give them innings.
Fever Pitch Guy
Love – Go back and read my posts from last year. Even before there were reports of the Sox interest in Giolito, I vehemently was opposed to signing him because of my concern over his performance the past two years. I wasn’t in a position to insist he was injured, how can I possibly do that when he kept it a secret even with the three teams he was on last year? I’d have been crucified for making such an assumption.
I never start rumors, I only point out facts. Sometimes I have to wait until my assumptions are proven correct, that’s what responsible mature intellectual people do :O)
stymeedone
@fever
Do you really think that Boston doesn’t see what even you can see, and doesn’t take steps to fully examine for the possibility of a pre existing injury? Just like a small change in a batting stance can put a hitter into a slump, a small change in mechanics can effect a pitchers effectiveness. Its always possible that a minor injury was missed, and got worse during the ramp up for the season. Its also possible this was just an unforeseeable happening. Neither of us will ever know.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – It’s okay to admit being wrong, we all have the right to change our mind on things.
For instance I have always believed Yoshida will earn his contract and be a very good hitter. If he finishes this year with a .700 OPS then I’ll readily admit I was wrong.
Fever Pitch Guy
stymee – All too often people here assume every decision the Red Sox make is the right one. Fact is, they make bad decisions …. quite often.
Medical exams are not 100% thorough, to the best of my knowledge no MRI was done on Gio prior to signing the contract.
What I know for a fact, ego often gets in the way of rational thinking. The Red Sox were the 4th team since last year to believe they could “fix” Gio’s problem. They assumed his performance the past two years was not a physical issue., despite the drastic drop in velo and spin rate.
Want another example? Years ago the Red Sox were thinking about acquiring a pitcher named Eric Gagne. They received an email confirming he had been using steroids. They traded for him anyways, and he was a disaster in a Red Sox uniform.
The guy who made that decision to acquire him anyway? Theo Epstein.
all in the suit that you wear
“Not sure how you missed my point”
=================================
You have not proven a point. Giolito was not injured in 2023 before the Red Sox signed him. He had no arm or shoulder injuries until this year. Here is his injury history:
foxsports.com/mlb/lucas-giolito-player-injuries
Chris Sale had elbow inflammation in July 2018 before Dombrowski signed him to the extension. Here is his injury history:
foxsports.com/mlb/chris-sale-player-injuries
Chris Sale only pitching 4 innings in the 2018 ALCS and 5 innings in the 2018 World Series was another red flag missed by Dombrowski before he extended him.
all in the suit that you wear
A change in ERA and WHIP does not prove he was injured. Do you think every hitter who has a change in BA/OBP/SLG is injured too?
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Remember when I said a few days ago Winck starting today was not yet confirmed?
Well now it’s confirmed! LOL!!
And what a lineup …. sorry, I have to laugh again.
Rafaela and his .197 OBP batting leadoff.
Dalbec, Reyes, Valdez and Heineken all starting.
So Yoshida, despite finally getting hot and having an awesome game yesterday, is benched by Cora. And the team has an offday tomorrow.
Does Cora’s interpreter have a wager on the Pirates winning today?
tff17
I figured you would be all over that .197 OBP, though I guess he has reached base twice? Cora’s moves often leave me puzzled, but they work out better than I would ever have expected. Not that there is any way to manage around a lineup with so few real bats.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – I was thinking with so many people here constantly attributing pitcher success to “luck” with BABIP, we should have a similar “luck” stat for managers.
Fact is, before today Rafaela was 0-for-16 against lefthanded starting pitchers with only one walk. Cora got lucky, let’s hope he doesn’t continue putting him at leadoff. The team already has an obscene amount of solo homerun shots because of the poorly constructed lineups.
all in the suit that you wear
Stymeed: Looking this over this again, I think you captured the situation perfectly and explained why a change in ERA and WHIP does not prove Giolito was injured before signing with Red Sox.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – You are resorting to the exact same disingenuous tactics you use with others to “win” debates.
Remember this? “Do you have an audio link of Xander saying he was offered only $90M? Oh, you don’t? Then you failed to prove the offer exists, therefore it never happened”.
I’ve provided logic and multiple examples of starting pitchers who had longterm consistent success, then suddenly saw a drastic drop in performance, then went under the knife.
You refuse to acknowledge pitcher injuries are often degenerative, you refuse to acknowledge pitchers often continue pitching through injuries, and you refuse to acknowledge a pitcher can’t simply have “bad luck” for 2 years after being consistently good for several years.
All because you want to “win”.
all in the suit that you wear
FPG: That is not a quote of me. You made it up. The only thing I want to win is the truth. My original point was there is no evidence that Giolito had a pre-existing injury before the Red Sox signed him. You have presented no evidence to prove that. A change in ERA and WHIP does not prove Giolito was injured before signing with Red Sox. Do you think every hitter that has a change in BA/OBP/SLG is injured too?
tff17
All veteran pitchers have preexisting damage to their arms, but it is very difficult to predict when they will finally break down. The most rapid attrition seems to be in the 29-31 age range, from a small study that I did a few months back, but even then it is a tossup WHICH pitchers will stay healthy and which will go under the knife.
all in the suit that you wear
FPG: I would never say that, because there is no evidence of something, it never happened. No evidence of something means there is no evidence one way or the other. Please remember this difference. It is what I am saying about Giolito. There is no evidence of a pre-existing injury that I have seen. Stymeedone had the best take on this in my opinion. I will likely continue to push back on claims with insufficient evidence to support them as others do too.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – You know I’m paraphrasing, but you most certainly told GASox without a direct quote from Xander or the front office his FACTUAL assertion was not true because it can’t be proved with a direct quote. In fact now that you mention it, I don’t believe I have seen him posting since. You probably got him so agitated refusing to acknowledge all the proof he presented that he probably decided to stop posting, hopefully he is okay.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – Do you also believe nobody should ever be convicted of murder if there’s no victim’s body? What are you gonna say next, the glove doesn’t fit so we must acquit?
Mountains and mountains of evidence that you refuse to explain because you can’t.
1) Sudden and drastic decline in performance
2) Sudden and drastic drop in spin rate
3) Sudden and drastic drop in velocity
4) Already had TJS 12 years ago, it’s common to have another similar injury
5) Couldn’t pitch again after just FOUR INNINGS with the Sox
6) He admitted the sensation he felt this spring was the same as last year, each time he thought perhaps it was just “general soreness”.
“I didn’t know right then that it was over,” – Giolito explained in a recent interview with MLB analyst Chris Rose. “I had a similar sensation that happened last year”
7) UCL tears are frequently chronic and degenerative.
Now go right ahead and dismiss all that to give you a sense of “winning” ….. you be you.
all in the suit that you wear
FPG: You were not paraphrasing correctly. I explained it very clearly to GA that I don’t believe we know for sure what offers the Red Sox have made to a player unless the player or the Red Sox confirm things and I would need a direct quote to believe it. That is my opinion. In that discussion there were no direct quotes. GA is posting today.
all in the suit that you wear
FPG: You have not provided mountains and mountains of evidence. If you post the velocity data and spin rate data, I will take a look at it. However, I doubt anyone can prove on this forum that Giolito had a pre-existing injury before the Red Sox signed him. Again, I think Stymeedone had the best take on this, ending with “we will never know” if he had a pre-existing injury. I doubt we will ever agree on this.
GASoxFan
Fever, it was somewhat odd timing, but, youre half right, half wrong.
Lately I go through bad-streaks and somewhat better ones. I’ve been pushing myself a lot lately and it caught up with me. Thanks for the well wishes.
IRT the convo about Bogey and the Sox, well, I think the rational minds read what was said and drew the appropriate conclusions. Frustration, sure, some, but nothing that would drive me off much.
I only posted a couple times between then and now, mostly calling out MLBTR on ignoring Oneill’s injury in all their reports and updates. (They did finally acknowledge it several days later, far too long for what they’re trying to buildnthis site to be as he was MLB’s HR leader on the day of the injury not to mention his OPS and OPS+ numbers at the time.)
Got on yet more meds, but, they hope it will aid breathing/gas exchange issues. We shall see. Not sure Atl/Sox series is viable at this point although we mentioned it earlier.
GASoxFan
Suit, you received direct quotes from Bogey, including to audio playable of him doing interviews, where he said it was well reported what the sox offers to him prior to free agency were, and, every major (and minor) source reported the same $90m numbers, representing 3 remaining years on his extension at 20m/yr, and a 4th year option on the existing deal that would vest at 20m based on PAs being converted to a fully vested year, plus $10m thrown on top.
No alternate figures were reported.
So, Suit, your exact counter argument was because Bogey himself never said the words ’90 million dollars’ that that meant nothing.
Never-minding that Boston, Bloom, or anyone associated with them never once said the reports were inaccurate, or, didn’t fully encompass what was discussed or any other BS excuse to deflect during intense negative media publicity and bad press, not to mention enraged fans- something that hurts you when dealing with future free agents and their representatives mind you.
In the world of sports and contract negotiations that’s closer then you usually ever get, and, certainly goes well beyond the concept of ‘reasonable doubt.’
tff17
@all-in-the-suit, Fangraphs reports the average fastball. He was throwing 94+ in 2019-2021, which fell to 92.7 in 2022 and 93.3 in 2023. It was ticking up slightly at the end of 2023 but still didn’t sustain the 94+ that had previously been his average. If you pull up the game-by-game velocity graph, note the progressive slide in 2022, with an incomplete (and inconsistent) rebound in 2023.
Baseball Savant reports spin rates. His spin rate did jump from 2019-2021 but fell back less than 10% and was still above his prior norm in 2022-2023. Even less of a drop in the spin rate of his slider, and it actually increased on his changeup.
The Red Sox got him relatively cheaply (and on a short deal) because he wasn’t at his best in 2022-2023. Injuries and/or cumulative damage is almost assumed to be a part of that. Sometimes the pitcher recovers and rebounds, sometimes he heads to the operating room.
So I think you are both right? There is good reason to believe he wasn’t physically 100%, but there is good reason to believe that NO pitcher of that age is physically 100%. I don’t think that TJ surgery was a foregone conclusion, at least not from the data available to fans. (Clearly they didn’t see any screaming issues in his medical charts either.)
all in the suit that you wear
GA: Good to see you. I noticed you were missing. If you want to occupy yourself, the comments to this article will keep you busy.
GASoxFan
Suit: I’d been keeping up on the reading side of things, even if not the posting. For a while I debated even jumping into the mix on the latest quagmire facing Boston.
If you recall, this offseason I did regularly say boston needed more corner infield depth as dalbec was the only decent defender to back up Devers, and, when it can down to cron/dalbec I voted dalbec due to cron being limited to 1B.
The infield is in about the shape I expected it would be, just not *this* early in the campaign.
And as promising as the SP start has been, there is no one move to make IMO that fixes the unearned run fiasco. Certainly not with a projected starting lineup including Devers, Casas, and Grissom when all healthy as all feature POOR defense and MANY errors, both graded and those upgraded per deference to MLB preferences.
Dalbec has many shortcomings, but, he’s fairly solid with the glove. Unfortunately, it’s going to take another season, maybe 2, to solidify the defense and get rid of the error-fest.
I’d love to see Devers at 1B while Casas was out, keeping dalbec at 3B. If Devers makes fewer errors at 1B than Casas, then the ideal distribution would be keep Devers at 1B, make Casas the full time DH, then try to get a defensive whiz at 3B who hits better than dalbec who becomes a bench player.
Where’s that leave Yoshida? Sliding back to OF depth/platoon player, or, trade bait (with cash) towards the fix at 3B.
all in the suit that you wear
TFF17: Thanks. Do you think the fall in spin rate in 2021 could have been from the ban on sticky stuff?
all in the suit that you wear
GA: When you piece things together, you can wind up with the wrong conclusion in my opinion. So, I leave things like this as unknown and unconfirmed. We all have our opinions and that is my opinion on how to approach things.
all in the suit that you wear
I doubt Devers can play first base well. I doubt he can field bad throws well. If true, he might have a worse impact on defense by moving to first base. I’m thinking Casas is probably better defensively at first base than Devers.
all in the suit that you wear
TFF17: Actually, I’m not sure what you are saying as you say his spin rate fell back but was above his prior norm.
GASoxFan
Suit: here’s my thinking on Devers vs Casas at 1B.
The season is young, but, Casas actually leads Devers with 2 scored* errors to 1.
Many of Devers scored* errors are split almost exactly even between fielding and throwing, BUT, the majority of his throwing errors are to 1B. I attribute those to two factors – obviously one is a poorer rushed throw, but, a BETTER 1B saves many of those throws as well, and that comes from the eye test seeing both sides of those plays. But, for scoring, it doesn’t matter if a better defender could’ve saved an error, itsnchargednto the guy making the bad throw.
When tossing to the 2b/ss covering, Devers actually does pretty well. However, Casas DOES himself still create errors throwing to 2B.
Here’s the theory:
A 3B is responsible to field many more balls than a 1B. Here’s an interesting (old) read on distributions, but, pull tendencies of rh and lh hitters, all that havent changed much and 1b vs 3b shift hasnt changed much.. and, the width of territory a 3B vs 1B typically is responsible to cover as a percentage of the fair territory by angle:
tht.fangraphs.com/infield-defense-mdash-back-to-ba…
So, I think Devers improved arm accuracy on short throws, 90- ft between bases but has been demonstrated worse 127+ ft across the diamond (remember, it’s more likely a throw to the adjacent base, excluding home, you’re standing closer to it [ie away from foul line] where as across the diamond you’re likely deeper in the hole on the OF grass than the base itself.)
What’s the net effects of a 1B move? Responsible for fewer balls hit that direction, statistically proven. Responsible for fewer degrees of coverage on the range of balls hit. Less fielding chances means less errors. Shorter throws, fewer throws, to 2B also means less errors.
If you had a strong fielding 3B, with an accurate arm, Devers should have a decent chance at catching the throws, again, with few errors.
At this rate, I figure it doesn’t hurt to *try*… we know how bad Casas is at picking throws, and we know how bad Devers is at 3B. And we know the infield is largely responsible for having the horrific unearned run differential.
Why not shake it up? It can’t get worse. And while Casas is out, you’re not going to hurt much to try it, right?
all in the suit that you wear
GA: Makes sense. I agree it can’t hurt to try. I was guessing that balls hit to first base plus throws to first base gives him more chances for errors.
GASoxFan
Suit: here’s the other thing, not to sound too mercenary and all but baseball *is* a business…
With Henry being how he is with payroll lately, another benefit is suppressing Casas’ salary through arbitration. His value is his bat, pure and simple. And arb awards to pure DHs lag position players.
Casas isn’t adding value with his glove. He was a -4 DRS last year. If you prefer the stat cast data, he was -10 OAA, and a -8 on their FRV which is supposed to encompass everything from fielding to range to throwing. Either way he’s generally not *projected* to bring a positive value added result with his glove on any particular defensive play.
So why pay him extra for it as if he does?
Devers is a sunk cost. So I’d advocate if you *can* you go and get a plus defender with good arm at 3B, assuming *if* Devers can work out ok at 1B. Anything even close to what casas grades at, even if devers is slightly worse, is a HUGE upgrade because of what you change on the left side of the infield.
Then you keep Casas bat and save money with him at DH, net positive defense and unearned run potential. If Devers is stuck at 3B? Get a plus defender at 1B, reduce the number of errors both at 1B and on picked throws. Still shove Casas to dh, and still see some upgrade.
all in the suit that you wear
Makes sense. I wonder if Casas could play some LF. Not sure if he is fast enough.
GASoxFan
Suit: I’m not sure you’d even want to try Casas in the OF.
1) again, for a bat-only guy, you put him in DH and keep his salary down in arb years, especially when he sounds like he wants gold golver money for the 1b position as a guy who is a below average defender.
2) Looking long term you’ve got abreu, duran, and rafaela as young controlled OFers with Anthony and others coming along in the farm.
3) You’re also currently stuck with Yoshida who is getting off to a slower start as a DH, but, I expected as much from some offseason posts I made delving into his splits batting as an OFer and as a DH – not everyone produces as well as DH as when they’re playing in the field as well.
Obviously there’s a LOT of youth to sort through and see how things play out in an extended look, but, trying to force DH-types into field roles is how the roster got so imbalanced to begin with.
We can only hope Breslow doesn’t allow that trend to continue
tff17
I was thinking of that myself, but don’t have any evidence one way or the other.
His spin rate jumped between 2018 and 2019, then fell part way back in 2022. Check out Baseball Savant some time, they have a wealth of data. Sometimes too much!
tff17
So Dalbec at 3B and Devers at 1B? Could work out decently, and might take some of the stress off Devers’ knee. Less athleticism needed at 1B.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – Yes you explained it very clearly that if there’s no direct quote from the player or management, then it’s not true.
And I explained very clearly we have never and will never get direct quotes of specific contract offer details that were rejected.
Which begs the question, why the hell are you even here? So much of the content published by the MLBTR staff isn’t confirmed by direct quotes from players or management ….. but yet you are always here?
Doesn’t make sense, now does it? You are saying reported information, whether it be contract offers or trade possibilities or whatever, has no merit and is meaningless …. and yet you are here every day. Sorry but illogical behavior doesn’t get by me.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – Here is the exact quote from John Harper. I’m sure you’ll say he’s not credible, and you’ll say Brooks Baseball is not credible, and you’ll say Statcast is not credible too. It’s what you do to “win” in your mind.
“The primary culprit seems to be Giolito’s four-seam fastball, which averaged 93.3 mph last season, according to Brooks Baseball, a tick down from his 94-plus as recently as 2020. Perhaps more revealing, his spin rates were down as well, meaning he wasn’t getting as much carry on his four-seamer up in the zone.
In fact, both the velocity and spin rate on his fastball dropped below the 40th percentile of major league pitchers, according to MLB Statcast.”
Fever Pitch Guy
GASox – So happy to you see you posting again!!
Thanks for the update, we are all sending you positive vibes and energy my friend.
As for your pointing out the lowball offer to Xander, it frustrates me because I’ve been in your shoes many times. I know how much time and effort it takes to be on top of a subject and then explain it in great detail with supporting links/sources. When people like Suit instantly brushes it all aside because there’s no direct quotes from player or management (and he KNOWS there never is) then it really irks me …. because all that time and effort was wasted on someone who refuses to acknowledge they were wrong.
Anyhow, best wishes to you and thanks for checking in.
Fever Pitch Guy
GASox – I admire your patience with him, but unfortunately it’s all for naught. He has never, ever admitted being wrong.
And he has never, ever taken a position opposite Red Sox management. He has always and will always support management, because that’s what he likely gets paid to do.
Remember he pulled the exact same crap with Mookie, Eovaldi, Lester, etc ….
DBH1969
OM-EFFING-GOD!!!!
You know FPG and Suit are going at it again when a 3 day old Red Sox topic suddenly has 5000 new replies!
Oh look, the vortex has sucked in TFF and is making GA’s hospital bed roll down the runway!
I effing LOVE you guys!!!
Back in a bit… need to put on 15 more pots of coffee to get through all of this!
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Great post, thank you!
Here is something very important and germane to this discussion about Giolito:
Before he was drafted, his value had dropped significantly because of health concerns. At one point he was expected to be the top overall pick in the draft, until the health concerns.
Nat’s GM Mike Rizzo SPECIFICALLY stated they wanted him to “test the waters and let loose to see where we were at”.
mlb.com/news/nats-2012-top-pick-lucas-giolito-to-h…
This is exactly what I’ve been saying over and over. Yes a pitcher of his current age and prior workload will have some normal wear and tear (no pun intended). But Giolito knew he was heading toward surgery, and therefore didn’t go max effort until he secured the ridiculous contract he got from the Red Sox. Then, once he got that contract, he wasted no time “letting loose” to test the injury … knowing full well he was guaranteed at least 2 years of big money while recovering.
Is it possible the new grip played a part in the “letting loose” leading to the implosion? Maybe. Either way, dude was hurt and wisely kept it a secret until he got paid.
I mean think about it …. how often do the Red Sox outbid other teams for a healthy quality player? NEVER!!!
GASoxFan
DBH, you’d get two thumbs up if I could for literally making me laugh.
all in the suit that you wear
TFF17: Thanks. I don’t see the “sudden and drastic drop” in Giolito’s velocity or spin rate that Fever Pitch Guy is claiming. I don’t think a change in ERA or WHIP prove an injury. I don’t see anything to convince me that there were any obvious reasons for the Red Sox to avoid signing him which was my point from the beginning. Fever Pitch Guy will bash the Red Sox and then bash those that push back on it.
all in the suit that you wear
“both the velocity and spin rate on his fastball dropped below the 40th percentile of major league pitchers, according to MLB Statcast”
===================================
When was this? You expect people to make sense of statements like this that lack detail? You have not provided anything that shows a drastic drop in velocity and spin rate. To do that, you need to provide the data before and after. I don’t see a drop in velocity from 94 to 93 as a problem.
Fever Pitch Guy
GASox – THANK YOU!! I know you are a true fan therefore it doesn’t surprise me that you are aware of how error calls work for first basemen.
Fact is, unless a throw to first base is perfect there’s zero chance he will be charged an error on a bad throw no matter whether or not he could have caught the ball. If for instance Casas foolishly refuses to come off the bag to catch a bad throw, he’s not charged with an error …. even though he should be. This exact thing happened last week.
Fever Pitch Guy
GASox – Excellent post! One other factor that works against Casas, he’s downright stubborn and has a reputation for not being very receptive to instruction or change. That’s why, unlike some others here, I am not very optimistic that he will improve defensively over time. He’s a really unique dude, and we all know what “unique” means when used to describe people.
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – Too funny! Well I’ve always said Suit is usually polite for the most part (not always), therefore I don’t mind engaging with him.
This is still the most recent Red Sox article …. I think?
We need new Red Sox news to Mo Vaughn! Should be today with “Devers and O’Neill are back” …. hopefully.
DBH1969
🙂
Fever Pitch Guy
Suit – See, there ya go again … so because you weren’t there in person and “didn’t see it” you are in essence saying all those named sources are not credible.
Nothing is ever “credible” to you, unless it supports your viewpoint.
I’m guessing you’re in more than a few conspiracy theory groups.
tff17
I realize that you are committed to a highly negative narrative with Casas, but the reality is a lot more nuanced. There is a difference between “confident” and “stubborn”, between “unique” and “inappropriate”.
A reasonably detailed look – with quotes from his teammates – here:
mlb.com/news/triston-casas-2023-rookie-season
Those traits could easily be interpreted as the seeds of greatness if you wanted to spin it differently. Whether he is a stubborn washout or a future HOF depends on many factors, but especially the effort and focus he puts into his game. Given the progress we’ve seen from him over the last two years, I’m inclined to believe that he works VERY hard at his craft. (Admittedly hitting more than fielding, but he has been working on that as well. He knows he needs to improve.)
Manny was “unique” as well. And Ted Williams. So yeah, we know what that means.
all in the suit that you wear
FPG: You are making things up about me again. You want us all to believe Giolito had a “sudden and drastic drop” in velocity and spin rate yet provide no starting point and ending point for the drops and when they were. You need to provide that if you want to be believed. How can we evaluate and see how drastic the drops were without that? This is how you could support your claims which you have failed to do so far. It’s very simple and straightforward really. All of your insults also reflect badly on you.
I Love Fever Pitch Guy
You’re a glutton for injured Red Sox players, aren’t you? Let’s blame Cora for it.
Fever Pitch Guy
Love – Yay I have another dedicated fan!
Blame Cora? If you want to be my #1 fan, you need to pay better attention to my posts.
I have never blamed Cora for a pitcher’s injury, you’re thinking of a different regular poster here. As one example, I have repeatedly stated Giolito was already injured when he signed his ridiculous bloated contract with the Red Sox.
Please study my posts more carefully and memorize them.
Thank you!
KingKen
The only one you missed was Romy Gonzalez who was on fire in AAA, came up to fill in at SS after Story’s injury and after a decent game hit the IL himself.
Trollfree
Fever = Where did you read that O”Neill didn’t call for the ball? How do you explain the SS peeling off to avoid a collision. A lucky guess?
The current team devastation is all on Devers as usual. He’s a moron when it comes to have any level of baseball savvy on defense. His immaturity keeps him from taking a team attitude at anything. Cutting off balls in the infield he has no business chasing or charging into the outfield like a bull in a china shop, he doesn’t get how to play the game on defense. He’s a major liability and someone needs to ream him out for his selfish play.
tff17
Supposedly both of them called it.
Fever Pitch Guy
TF – I know, I know …. it’s always Devers’ fault! LOL!!!
Seriously though, the video confirms it. No lips or tongues moving, no arms waving. Rafaela wisely momentarily took his eyes off the ball to see where his teammates were positioned, that’s why he backed off.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Just curious, where did you read that? I know Cora is always gonna support his guys, he is definitely not gonna publicly say “So and so should have called it”.
tff17
I *thought* that was what Cora said, but going back to the postgame interview I’m now reading it differently. Agreed that he isn’t going to throw one of his players under the bus.
Should have been O’Neill’s play, coming in, but Devers wasn’t in position to see him coming and somehow the communication wasn’t there.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Absolutely, I posted that a few days ago.
All outfielders have priority over all infielders, because with outfielders the play is in front of them which makes it easier to catch.
I’m starting to feel sorry for Devers, he gets criticized for not playing hard enough or putting in effort and he gets criticized for playing too hard and putting in too much effort..
tff17
I see it the other way… Devers is a big body player, not the kind of natural athlete who is slick defensively at 3b (remember Beltre?). I give him credit for putting in the work to stick the position as long as he has, even though I suspect he will need to move off it in his early 30s.
So I’m not going to jump on him for his defensive miscues. He plays with his heart on his sleeve… Sometimes I wonder what game people are watching?
DBH1969
@ Fat… these injuries seem to be a league wide concern, not just the Sox.
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – Usually with position players it’s bulking up too much that causes core and leg injuries. However that can’t be the case with Casas, he is notorious for substituting strength & resistance training with yoga, stretching, etc.
Maybe he’s not using his hips enough when swinging?
Occams_hairbrush
Never.
kingbum
I think a lot of these injuries are because pitchers are trying to get the same spin rates that got with the sticky substances on the ball. I think the damage is degenerative, meaning cumulative over time up to the point of needing surgery eventually whether it’s TJ or something else.
As for the position players getting hurt, I’m not sure if players are actually taking time off in the winter. I would be interested to see a comprehensive study on who is playing winter ball in these foreign leagues. Many players don’t get any rest at all and it’s all cumulative over time.
mgomrjsurf
Also have other Catchers in Minors that can play 1B..
NavalHistorian
The Red Sox problem isn’t a lack of players who can play 1B if Casas is out, it’s that they don’t have room on their 40-man roster.
Unless Casas is seriously injured and they expect him to be out at least two months, he’ll be the 8th injured Boston player who still counts towards the 40-man roster. Only one of those guys, 2B/SS Vaughn Grissom is on a rehab stint and expected back soon.
With the exception of Heineman (and Vaughn Grissom), all of the position players on the Red Sox 40-man are already on the MLB roster. They have no choice but to use him. If they want to put another minor leaguer on their 40-man they’d have to DFA/release/trade somebody or put them on the 60-day IL.
Fever Pitch Guy
Naval – Great post! I totally agree, this roster was horribly constructed as their focus was on saving money instead of building depth.
One thing not mentioned in the above article, both Devers and O’Neill are due back Tuesday. So you can expect Dalbec to play first base for a while if Casas has an extended absence.
DonOsbourne
The Sox should reach out to the Cardinals about Goldy. He would probably turned back into Paul Goldschmidt if he could get out of St. Louis.
Fever Pitch Guy
Don – Zero chance the Sox take on Goldy’s contract or even just trade prospects for him.
DonOsbourne
You’re absolutely right. The Cards would have to eat most of the money and expect next to nothing in return. But sadly, our management team has backed us into a spot where that trade still makes sense for us.
It would probably help the Sox in multiple ways as well. Goldy looks terrible at the plate right now, but he is still elite with the glove.
Fever Pitch Guy
Don – The Sox already have a decent first base glove in Dalbec, so I don’t see them trading for another.
I think Cron or Belt would be much more likely. Belt would be ideal, if the Sox are willing to spend on him … which is a huge if.
stymeedone
Cron is playing in the minors. Belt is sitting at home. Belt won’t be a short term replacement piece. He not going to be ready quickly, and not going to sign to be dfa’d as players get healthy. Cron could be traded for, and doesn’t get a say. Plus he would be ready now.
n888
Surely Belt would sign for any opportunity at this point?
Fever Pitch Guy
stymee – You have a valid point about readiness, but if it takes 3 weeks for Belt to get into game shape I still think it’s the best option. Casas will likely be out for a couple months, at least.
n888
In the meantime Jared Walsh might be worth a pickup
Fever Pitch Guy
n – I totally agree. As the saying goes, beggars can’t be choosers. He needs to sign somewhere, not just for income this year but also it will be much tougher to get a contract next year if he doesn’t play at all this year.
Cliff Harrison
The contract doesn’t seem like it should be major stumbling block. The Cardinals are paying him for the year one way or the other so if continuing to pay him facilitated a move then what’s the harm?
Fever Pitch Guy
Cliff – It the Sox would give up very little and pay just minimum salary, then sure I’d go for it.
BTW just curious, what do you think is the reason for Goldy’s decline?
DonOsbourne
It depends on what you mean. The decline from ’22 to last year? Or what he’s doing this year?
Some of it is probably just age. He’s probably never going to be the “22 MVP version of himself again. But I think most of it is just him pressing too much trying to make up for his lackluster team. From the All-Star break last season until now, he has chased more bad pitches than I’ve ever seen in his Cardinal tenure. A change of scenery would do him wonders.
DonOsbourne
“Lengthy absence”. Goldy > Pablo Reyes. Just sayin’.
Fever Pitch Guy
Don – From 2022 to last year, players don’t age that fast. It’s fair to not expect another MVP season, but a 171 point drop in OPS is huge. Is he injured maybe? Decline in vision? Personal stuff going on?
Players at his age with his track record don’t usually suddenly begin to press.
thecrocusesareinbloom
This team is such a mess, and I feel really bad for the young guys. There’s probably enough talent on this roster that if ownership had invested in some depth options this could’ve been a breakthrough year. Sigh…
Also, hindsight’s 20/20, but cutting Cron in favor of Dalbec is looking pretty silly right about now, isn’t it?
ibuititnoonecame
Depth brought in depth they needed to bring in some stars…. This team never had a chance
thecrocusesareinbloom
@ibuiltit (great username btw) — I think the quality of play to this point in the season when people have been healthy implies that there’s a winning team here even without a huge acquisition. Now that we’re three cycles through the rotation I think it’s fair to say that Bailey obviously unlocked something on the pitching side of things, and the offense was always going to hit. Defense is shaky, I’ll give you that.
I said consistently during the offseason that this was a low-floor, high-ceiling team, and I wouldn’t be shocked with a win total anywhere between 70 and 90. Bringing in some options—Amed Rosario type guys—to build out the depth would’ve gone a long way in lowering that floor. Instead, it seems like we’re headed for the lower end of that spread. They’re one of the best bad teams I’ve ever watched play.
thecrocusesareinbloom
*Raising that floor, sorry. It’s a Saturday night in New Orleans—I’m a couple beers in 😉
all in the suit that you wear
“I think it’s fair to say that Bailey obviously unlocked something on the pitching side of things”
==========================
Agreed. The Red Sox have the lowest team ERA in MLB at 2.59.
mlb.com/stats/team/pitching?sortState=asc
Fever Pitch Guy
crocus – I’m jealous, NO is a great city!
Just don’t drive to Biloxi and do any gambling ;O)
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – Humor us, do you think even with good health that 2.59 ERA is sustainable?
Or is it possibly a situation where other teams were caught offguard by Bailey-Breslow-Boddy’s new approach, thus rendering other teams’ scouting reports worthless?
The question is, when other teams make adjustments …. will the Red Sox pitching staff be able to do the same? Time will tell.
tff17
Their FIP is 3.33, and you can add a bit to that for Fenway and for below-average defense.
Any scout that didn’t see this coming in Spring Training, or who takes over a month to put together a scouting report, is not deserving of the job. The typical time to get a book on a player is two weeks — and that is when it comes at them cold.
I think the bigger issue is that it is a different approach than what other teams are using, and it is tough for hitters to make those adjustments from one series to the next.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – ST is never a good time for scouting reports. Most of the regulars get very little playing time because of the large number of players on each team, and when they do play quite often it’s experimentation with pitches that may never be used in the regular season.
I’ve seen this before, many times in fact, where pitchers get a great start until opponents update their book on them. Similar to how Bobby Dalbec got off to a great start in his MLB career until opponents learned how to pitch him ;O)
tff17
We’re almost a full month into the regular season. Those scouts had better start earning their paychecks! Two weeks is the standard.
Try knocking the first two weeks off Dalbec’s ML career, see what it looks like then? *NEVER* judge a hitter by what he does in the first two weeks.
vinc3nt3
Playing the Angels & A’s will help anybody’s ERA.
JoeBrady
The offenses the RS have faced have been exactly league-average.
Fever Pitch Guy
crocus – Sorry I have to disagree on Cron.
Dalbec has one big advantage on him, he plays both corner infield positions rather well. Cron can’t play 3B. With Devers missing time, Sox would have been screwed without Dalbec.
Yes the depth in the organization is beyond sad. This is what happens when you draft poorly and refuse to spend.
thecrocusesareinbloom
Was Dalbec out of options? For some reason I thought he had at least one more option year left and could’ve been stashed at AAA. In fact, he was down for a hot minute before Story got hurt, wasn’t he?
I more meant that if Casas and Devers both go down we could’ve had both Dalbec and Cron, but because of the way they chose to construct the opening day roster, we’ve only got Bobby now.
all in the suit that you wear
It looks like this is Dalbec’s last option year.
I Love Fever Pitch Guy
You just like to attack your own team, don’t you? That’s what I love about you, even if you seem senile, Fever Pitch Guy.
Fever Pitch Guy
Love – I’m cool with people being obsessed with me, but you know I don’t tolerate personal attacks and insults for very long …. right?
Keep it friendly please if you don’t want to be muted …. again.
I Love Fever Pitch Guy
What about how you treat acell? That’s not a personal attack? It’s been more than that- you’ve blatantly told people they shouldn’t be here and that their opinions are wrong.
You’re one to easily talk, my friend, and all you do is deny, deny, deny. Grow up for once
Fever Pitch Guy
Love – It’s ironic you mention acell.
People often wonder why I haven’t muted him (you?) despite his constantly trying to discredit me. I mean the dude (you?) has NEVER agreed or complimented anything I’ve written, but he (you?) NEVER hesitates to accuse me of being wrong.
It’s not that I’m showing him (you?) favoritism, he (you?) has just been good about not crossing that line.
I told someone they shouldn’t be here? Provide the link please. If I did, I’d like to see the context …. perhaps after the person resorted to namecalling and false accusations?
My last interaction with him (you?) was when he (you?) insisted I was wrong in saying Acuna’s contract would have to be redone instead of somehow magically adding years to the end of it. I provided a mountain of evidence he (you?) was wrong, including the Machado contract. And I waited and waited for him (you?) to show some integrity, maturity and class by at least acknowledging I was right …. even a simple “my bad” would have sufficed.
But nope, he (you?) never did. What’s the point of having a discussion with someone if they cowardly run and hide whenever they are proven wrong?
I Love Fever Pitch Guy
I’m not acell, just a keen observer of you butchering him and not approving of it. You’ve been very unprofessional toward him, especially for someone whose opinions are always right.
Mute me all you want. I find ways back through the cracks. You know, the same cracks that let you talk and belittle others without being punished.
I can make this game of charades far worse, so maybe be respectful for once and shape up because I’m not going anywhere. I’m just sick of you ruining my experience with being so offensive to others.
If you want proof, look up my IP. I’m not acell. I’m defending him because you’re just awful on these forums and you make the Sox and everyone you disagree with look bad for your own enjoyment.
Fever Snitch Guy
Go ahead and ban him you little snitch. While you’re at it, ban me too. You can’t take the same criticism you give others, can you?
Pretty bad for some 50 year old guy behind a computer screen who has no life except bashing the Sox.
Here comes the cancel culture. Fever can mend the rules and call out anyone, but when it’s him on the table, he cowers and mutes because he can’t tarnish his name.
Fever Snitch Guy
I’m not obsessed with you, you’re a snitch. You’re going to have an awful lot of muting to do.
Fever Pitch Guy
Love – Didn’t take you long to go full psycho now did it? LOL!!
Just yesterday you posted how you “love what I do” …. and now you “hate what I do”? I really hope you don’t have access to small animals.
I know there are accounts I’ve muted who continue to constantly post about me, it really doesn’t matter who you are. All that matters is you aren’t here to talk baseball, you are here to talk about me. And I’m not.
So bye-bye!
Fever Snitch Guy
Maybe we can talk about how you post poorly and degrade everyone you disagree with?
tff17
They let JD Davis pass on waivers over just $6.9M.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – How much do you think Belt would want? If Casas is out longterm, I would hope the Sox would at least consider him.
tff17
At this point I think Belt would be happy with a regular ML job. Hoping Casas back sooner rather than later, will withhold comment until then.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Sounds like you’re saying minimum salary, which is cool. His presence wouldn’t be blocking any prospects, so I would be for it.
I’d much rather have Belt than Cron.
thecrocusesareinbloom
Agreed with TFF. The interviews with Belt following the total lack of offers during the offseason were honestly hard to watch. Dude put up one of the best offensive seasons of his career and heard crickets all winter. He looked so forlorn and confused. I have to imagine he’d be pretty hungry if a team gave him a chance to get back on the field.
tff17
Belt has his 10 years pension time in, so he isn’t desperate. But decent chance you could get him on a $10M 1-yr deal. For a player of that quality and experience, that’s pretty much the ML minimum. 🙂
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – $10M for 2/3rd of a season? Gulp!
tff17
Would be pro-rated a bit… And no reason he would need over a month to get ready.
JoeBrady
30 teams passed on JD at that price. He has a .627 OPS is on the IL
tff17
I thought he was a good match for the Red Sox. If he is on the IL already, that just confirms he would fit right in!
JoeBrady
He was a perfect match, but with two caveats.
1-He was too expensive at his original salary to be a backup.
2-He was a steal at his current salary, but once he was a FA, he was only going to sign with a team with an opening at 3rd.
But he would’ve been a really nice fit. In fact, depending on Casas’ health, he might not be a bad addition right now.
tff17
Yup. You nailed it with that take.
stymeedone
@inbloom
Cron can’t play 3B. Dalbec has been needed there.
Fever Pitch Guy
stymee – Exactly what I wrote earlier, Dalbec has more value than Cron because he’s a decent glove at both corners.
Buff Barnacles
Its time for Brandon Belt!!!!
Fever Pitch Guy
Buff – YES!!! If Casas is out for an extended period of time, I would be totally on board with it.
okbud
Was looking at the WooSox roster, any chance Niko Kavadas gets a chance? (Assuming Casas goes to the IL)
thecrocusesareinbloom
He wouldn’t help with the high strikeout numbers, but he sure would be fun to watch!
Redsoxx_62
That’s what u was thinking too
Redsoxx_62
Sorry I not u lol
Fever Pitch Guy
Redsoxx – You’re not him? Okay ….
notagain27
Looks like the dreaded Oblique injury has claimed another hitter. When will these teams learn that these guys can’t take countless swings every day in the cages? Body can only take so much.
Fever Pitch Guy
not – It’s not oblique, it’s either bruised/fractured ribs or torn cartilage. Both worse IMO.
BillMueller326
Please no more blobby dalbec! He can’t hit, just sign someone, anyone, with a pulse!
DBH1969
This is really Dalbec’s best and last chance to become the player he needs to be. He is better defensively than most give him credit for and he has shown in the past that he has the potential to be an every day player.
We have seen examples in the past of bench/back-up players taking advantage of opportunities created by injuries… ‘Tek replacing Hatteburg (younger members here may not remember that Tek was the back up), Tom Brady replacing Bledsoe. Duran last year seized a starter role last year.
I am not saying Dalbec will, or even can, suddenly become the next face of a franchise. But if he finally gets out of his own head, as he seems to finally be doing, then he can become the next everyday role player. The next Trot Nixon or Orlando Cabrera. Heck, at this point I would take Rob Deer!
He has the tools, he just needs to stop waxing the toolbox and open the effing thing.
It is his moment to shine, his team needs him, and I am pulling for him.
It is the year of The Kid Sox… let’s see what happens!
tff17
I agree with you on his defense, but Dalbec is already 28 and (if you look at his minor league numbers) his whiff rate is trending the wrong way. A decent starting player needs to be able to put up a +2 WAR, and Dalbec topped out at +0.5 WAR even when he was striking out just 34% of the time. Hard to imagine him doing even that much at this point with a strikeout rate of 37% and rising.
I think you underrate Nixon? He averaged +3.4 WAR from 1999-2003, ages 25-29. Dalbec is already aging out of those “prime’ years and hasn’t come anywhere remotely close to it. Rob Deer put up +7.9 WAR over the same age span, striking out just 30% of the time.
Wilyer Abreu reminds me of a young Trot Nixon. Nixon is his upside, though, a really good player.
DBH1969
Agree about Nixon, TFF. Trot is one of my all time favorite players. A dirt dog in the truest sense. I wasn’t comparing stat wise, but rather role wise. Trot wasn’t a super star, but a team star who played his heart out. Dalbec could become that if he just hits .250
tff17
Yeah, with a .250 BA he would be a decent player. The problem is that he is closer to .200 over the last 500 PA. That is a wide gap to bridge.
@FPG I think Devers can use all the reps he can get at 3B. He is still passable there, even if he will never be good.
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – Do you remember the big homerun Trot hit off Clemens on Sunday Night Baseball?
I always liked Trot and Tek for being the quiet, lowkey, intense players they were …. the exact opposite of guys like Millar, who I didn’t really care for as a player.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Glad to see I’m not the only one who is okay with Devers at 3B for the immediate future! I thought I was alone on that island here. LOL!!
What about Yoshida, what are your thoughts on him? He seems to have turned things around in a big way now, at the exact same time as last year.
DBH1969
I can not believe there are 2 people who think Devers should be playing 3b. I must be reading this wrong. Otherwise I didn’t just see a unicorn, I saw a unicorn being groomed by Bigfoot!
tff17
Yoshida doesn’t play defense, is slow on the basepaths. To hold down a starting job as a DH you need to be a GOOD hitter, and with more power than he has shown to date. Maybe an .850 OPS? I’m not seeing that from him yet, but hope that he can make me eat my words.
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – To clarify my position, I supported giving Devers one final chance this year to see if he can improve. Otherwise I’d really, really like to see him given a shot at 1B …. just like Vladdy.
And if he doesn’t work out at 1B, then they bite the bullet and DH or trade him.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Yoshida has a .954 OPS since April 13th!
Yesterday he had 3 hits including a homerun and a double!!
Macho Man is baaaaaaaack!!!
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – I totally agree Bobby is a decent glove at multiple positions, but the hitting has to greatly improve for him to stay on the roster even if Casas is done for the year.
What I’d like to know, why hasn’t Cora been trying out Devers at first base during practice and ST? If Casas is out a while now would be the PERFECT time to see how Devers does at first base …. if he was given some reps there in practice drills and ST, like Ref was.
DBH1969
@FPG, Devers isn’t playing 1st for same reason he isn’t the DH, which is the same reason he isn’t on the DL… OPTICS!!!
The Sox PR department and FO is already a laughing stock. There is no way they make those moves after the PR spamfest they’ve put into him.
Devers will play 3B while sitting on a bed pan before you see him play 1st base
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – I totally agree with you, but this is yet another example of the Red Sox inconsistency with regard to decisionmaking.
They are so hellbent on forcing players to play multiple positions and move them around in the lineup, so why not turn Devers into a “versatile” player? They contradict themselves so often, it’s a major turnoff and just another sign of the total dysfunction within the Red Sox braintrust.
Cooperdooper7
Dalbec takes too many pitches and is constantly in 0-2/ 1-2 counts.
Fever Pitch Guy
Coop – Seems like sometimes he’s wearing glasses, sometimes he’s not. Loomer was talking about it the other day. Maybe it’s a vision issue?
DBH1969
Thus some food for thought: Sox have lost their entire starting infield, a starting OF, and chunck of their starting pitching… and are still above .500 and only 2.5 out of 1st in a the only division that has every team above .500.
I am telling you all it is The Year of the Kid Sox! A club that will end around .500 but headed in the right direction. So grab a brew, pull the cap out of the fire place, and enjoy the show. Like I posted on the Globe. When they win, you can see the Kids’ potention, when they lose you can see what they are still working on, but either way, these kids are fun as eff to watch. Even when they make you pull out your hair and scream at the TV
tff17
This team has a really nice young rotation *if* they can stay healthy. Just not a whole lot of depth to it if the injuries start to stack up. I do have hope for Fitts, but Criswell is your classic ‘depth’ starter.
Very thin offense though, so I agree with the .500 record. Will start extending the depth there as Mayer, Anthony, and Teel get to the majors.
DBH1969
Mayer, Anthony, and Teel shouldn’t be rushed, but injuries could force the issue. Teel especially. He is in his first year of pro ball and both of our catchers are playing well. No need to rush him. And Mayer’s injury set his time time table back I year, I think.
But there is optimism on the horizon
tff17
I’m tentatively expecting all three in August or September. They aren’t on the 40-man roster yet, though, and if they hit a rough spot in AAA then that will slow the timeline. No need to rush them, but a “cup of coffee” this year could help them perform out of the gate in 2025. Even for talented kids there is an adjustment period.
DBH1969
Oh, I definitely expect the September cup of coffee for all 3, and that would be appropriate. A little taste of the experience for all 3 is a must and part of the natural progression!
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Expect Mayer, but don’t expect the other two. This is also confirmed by the Red Sox website.
The outfield will likely be Duran, Abreu and Rafaela once Grissom returns. No need to rush Anthony.
And with how well Wong is performing, no need to rush Teel.
Bruin1012
As someone who has watched nearly all of the Portland games I’m still very concerned about Mayer. Yes he has looked on the surface that he has figured it out with a .366 average but it’s all fluff and luck driven. He is still striking out at near career highs, he no longer walks still chases and he rarely seems to hit a line drive. His .467 babip is comically high and the eye test and his underlying numbers don’t suggest it’s anywhere near sustainable.
Roman Anthony otoh looks like he is having a rough start to the year and he has somewhat but he is trying to get more loft in his swing and with that he is adjusting and striking out more then usual. His previous heavy ground ball profile and his very low fly ball profile weren’t conducive for a strong potential power hitter. His mix thus far has much more line drives and fly balls more like a 1/3 rd each instead of the 50-60 percent ground ball rate he has been sporting. I expect him to really take off once he adjusts to his more lofted swing.
Kyle Teel is a line drive machine he screams high average hitter to me he hits so many balls on the screws he should always be a high babip hitter. He is also making an adjustment to AA Portland and striking out a bit too much but once he adjusts I expect him to quickly get to AAA Worcester.
I hope that Mayer starts squaring some balls but out of the big three I’m most concerned about Mayer.
DBH1969
@ Bruin, I haven’t seen any of them play. Do you think these guys are getting crushed by the added pressure of being told they are the savoirs of the future, is it just normal growing pains?
Fever Pitch Guy
Bruin – Thank you, I always appreciate your comments on prospects.
From what you described, Mayer isn’t that much different than Rafaela hitting-wise.
Bruin1012
DBH I’m not sure on that one without being able to talk to them. I think it’s just the learning process. Portland isn’t a good place to hit, in fact, the Eastern League on average is much tougher to hit in than the International League. I really like Teel he just screams hitter to me.
DBH1969
Cool. Thanks for the I put. I hope you are right about Teel. Sounds like he could be great #2 hitters, which the Sox definitely need!
Bruin1012
Fever when Mayer hits the ball he does have that back spin and carry on his fly balls so I think he gets to power. The walk thing is concerning his walk percentage has been trending down and has completely bottomed out this season. Rafaela makes more contact then Mayer but has more chase Mayer has more in zone swing and miss then Rafaela. At least so far in AA Portland.
Penrod has been impressive in AA Portland but my guy to take the biggest leap forward this year is ERC his heavy sinking fastball is up to 95-98 now with more potential his secondaries are good as well. He’s having a little trouble harnessing his new power stuff but he’s striking out the world down in Salem his stuff is legit for a quick move to Greenville.
Fever Pitch Guy
Bruin – As always, thanks for the insights!
Looking forward to when Yoeilin Cespedes eventually is with Portland, he intrigues me.
Bruin1012
I can’t wait for rookie ball to start in Florida because of that guy. Word is he has been extremely impressive on the back fields and in xst in Fort Meyers. On a bad note Miguel Bleis looks totally lost at the plate.
Fever Pitch Guy
Bruin – Did you see Baseball America’s 2027 projected starting lineup?
Last December they had Cespedes as the starting 2B, before the Grissom trade. Now they have Cespedes as the starting 3B, with Devers at DH.
Where do you think Cespedes will be the better fit?
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – Yes there are many youngsters I enjoy watching … Casas, Duran, Abreu, Pivetta, Whitlock, Crawford, Houck, Bello, Wong …. and also my guy Yoshida!
But player development is helped when they are surrounded by talented veterans in a competitive environment. When there’s no talented veterans and they are buried in last place playing in front of small silent Fenway crowds that is not a good environment for young players. Look no further than Oakland.
These young Sox players need veteran leadership like Pedroia, Ortiz, Sale, Eovaldi …. and unfortunately they simply don’t have that right now. Devers is basically the captain, but he’s not a good leader.
DBH1969
I think it is plainly clear that Devers has no desire to be The Leader. There is nothing wrong with that, it is just his personality. But somebody will step up. Pedy became a vocal leader early on.
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – I wouldn’t be surprised if he was asked to be the team leader. He’s the only one from the championship era, he’s got the most talent (offensively of course), and he’s got the massive longterm contract. He is the face of the franchise now, normally that means team leader.
And he has tried to be a leader, he strongly spoke up last year around the trade deadline and again early this spring. But I totally agree with you, he doesn’t have the personality for it. Manny never would have been a good leader, and Devers is very similar personality-wise to Manny.
tff17
Story was a key veteran leader — until he got injured. Agreed that this is a need for a young team. At least part of what you put on Cora is stuff that veterans could help with.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Agreed that Story would have been a good leader if he was playing and producing, but obviously neither has happened yet.
It’s like Sale the past few years, he’s likely a HOF pitcher but with him missing so many games he really couldn’t fill that pitching staff leader role that he normally would.
JoeBrady
… and are still above .500
======================
I actually prefer to not tell the casual fans things like that. It is more entertaining when the casuals think we are 0-22.
DBH1969
Lol!
rlburgs
Amazing that they have a positive W-L record with all the injuries they have had. I think Cora and the entire coaching staff deserves commendation.
Fever Pitch Guy
burgs – This is the exact same situation as the prior two years, weak schedule at the start of the season makes them look better than they are.
Let’s take a look at their schedule thus far, shall we?
4-2 against the 9-12 Angels
3-0 against the 8-13 A’s
2-0 against a slumping Pirates team that is 2-8 in their last 10
2-2 against a .500 Mariners team
And 1-6 against the only good teams they’ve played, Cleveland & Baltimore
Let’s see how they do in Cleveland before heaping praise on Cora.
'Tang It
Cora deserves no praise regardless. They win despite him.
RickEO
Its fine. Best starters in baseball
Bruin1012
Losing Casas for an extended length of time is an absolute killer for this team. He’s the best hitter on the team imo, he hadn’t even got hot yet and was still sporting 6 homers and an ops north of .850 and it was just recently you could see his timing was getting better and better he was about to take off. I think they need to sign Belt if he has a long term injury this season. This really sucks I’m guessing Devers will be back soon same with O’Neil but none of them are Casas. Hell it seems like have his K’s are looking and half of those wring ups the ump missed the call he could be sporting a .400 obp with the robot umps and probably a couple of extra wins.
Fever Pitch Guy
Bruin – It’s a killer for me personally, as my interpreter would have won $20K if Casas led the majors in homeruns this year.
Devers and O’Neill both back Tuesday per Cora.
Bruin1012
That will help Fever. Casas will still be a huge loss.
Bruin1012
Glad to see it’s only a strain still it’s a trick injury and his swing is so rotational just hope he lets it heal before coming back. I saw him wince on that first at bat yesterday I think that’s when he did it.
Bruin1012
Well sheeit not a good update
Poolhalljunkies
They won today…try to enjoy it
Rsox
The hits just keep on coming…
DBH1969
Well, 10 days isn’t 60, so it could be worse.
We now have 3 catchers. If we lose another infielder, we are in seroius trouble. They will rush Devers back and ensure that he ends up seriously hurt.
Mark my words…. we are less than a month away from losing Devers for an extended period from.injury to his shoulder, knees, or both.
All because the Sox can’t be bother to sign another body.
All of that good MOJO I was feeling this morning is evaporating
And yet Joely is too valuable to jetison!!!!
CKinSTL
Brutal week for the Red Sox.
B dog 351
Why isn’t Yoshida playing? Makes no sense
Cooperdooper7
Ask the Manager….. how about why is Reyes playing 1B and Dalbec playing 3B????
tff17
Dalbec isn’t bad defensively. Reyes struggles on the left side of the infield.
Poolhalljunkies
Dalbec sadly might be the best defensive 3b in the whole organization
Poolhalljunkies
Good question on yoshida..unless they dont think he can hit a lefty
dasit
this stinks
i was bred to hate the red sox like poison but watching his at-bats are fun
Blackpinkinthearea
Entitled fans as usual
Rsox
Did somebody in the Sox clubhouse drink Jobu’s rum.
C.J. Cron is still unemployed, might be worth bringing back as a depth option
Poolhalljunkies
Bobby dalbec beat him out…do we really want someone dalbec can play better than..ever?
Rsox
At this point a healthy body is more important than anything
davemlaw
Brandon Belt is sitting at home waiting for a call.
Now’s the time.
whyhayzee
Would he take the Belt Way to get to Fenway?
Rsox
Belt refused to sign a guaranteed incentive laden deal with the Mets as well as minor league contracts with other teams so i doubt unless he’s desperate to play that he would take what the Sox would offer
GeorgeK
Knock Knock? “Bobby!” Bobby Who? “Bobby Dalbec who doesnt belong in the major leagues except the Red Sox are so damn desperate to have someone with a beating heart but would be better off bringing up Marcello Meyer and watch him go 1 for 50.
Poolhalljunkies
Mayer has looked great for portland so far
Bruin1012
Yup if you just look at statistics he looks good he did square a ball up today which is nice but his numbers are babip driven he’s not anywhere near ready.
Salvi
If the Red Sox had forfeited their entire 2016 Draft, they wouldve been better off.
Groome
Chatham
Anderson
Dalbec
Shawaryn
Poolhalljunkies
Pirates looked like the bad news bears today and got swept by what many here think is a triple a lineup..good thing they play the games otherwise youd think bos would be the team getting swept lol
Rsox
When you get swept by a team where Rob Refsnyder is one of the more accomplished hitters in the lineup you would probably lose to the Bad News Bears, at their current ages…
'Tang It
I’ve had a rib injury before. It took years to heal. This could be a problem.
whyhayzee
Holliday and Dalbec are both 1 for 30.
B dog 351
Could be a lot worse. Imagine being a pirates fan and watching this series. Ouch !!
Salvi
Pirates looked lost all weekend, especially today.
all in the suit that you wear
The Pirates started the season off really well. I wonder what happened.
Salvi
They did the same last year, I remember them coming to Boston and kicking the Sox butt for 4 straight games.
They started 2023 off 20-8, then went on to finish 76-86. Im just glad Red Sox got to them AFTER their hot start ended this year.
all in the suit that you wear
Good point. I remember that last year. I was rooting for the Pirates to win the NL Central, but now I’m rooting for the Brewers.
dirtyjog
Sox fans need to chill, myself included. 15% of the way through the year. Aren’t expected to compete regardless, but even with Giolito, Pivetta, Devers, O’Neill, Casas, Story, Grissom, Whitlock, etc. injured to various degrees, still 3 over 500 including 10-3 on the road.
Should they have more depth? Yes. Did I enjoy seeing Heineman’s name in an MLB box score? No. But in the meantime Reyes and Valdez deserve credit for shoring up the infield, and Crawford and Houck (among others) deserve credit for stepping up with a weakened lineup
B dog 351
Dirtyjog: Great point. 23 games in, long way to go. I don’t think they are competing at full health. Let’s be realistic did anyone think they would be pitching as well as they have with what they have.
Fever Pitch Guy
dirty – Hard to ignore 11 of the 12 wins are against bad teams, and they are just 1-6 against good teams.
I look forward to the return of Devers and O’Neill Tuesday, let’s see how they do in Cleveland. It’s not just about winning, it’s about player development. If the Sox want to compete in 2025 or 2026, guys like Rafaela and Grissom and Bello HAVE to improve because they will dictate how the future plays out.
tff17
Only way for them to improve is to keep working at it – and it helps that Cora shows confidence in them even when it isn’t justified by the numbers.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – In all fairness to Cora, what other choice does he have?
I really think he’s sticking it to management by doing things like batting Rafaela (.210 OBP) leadoff and starting Heineken (career .580 OPS) at DH.
Cora is probably pissed at what he’s been given to work with, especially with this being a contract year for him. His earnings potential is being dragged down.
tff17
I know you wanted Yoshida at DH, but it is possible he wasn’t available. He didn’t come in as a pinch-hitter either. Beyond that, who else? Hamilton or McGuire (against a LHP)?
Cora plays his full roster (a strength in my opinion). If he is putting poor lineups out on the field, that reflects the quality of the players he was given.
Lineup orders are often strange, but that is strictly a second-order effect. There isn’t any way to manage this roster to a playoff berth, so I’m happy with whatever Cora believes is best for his players and their development. Not worth getting upset over.
I doubt he’ll have any difficulty finding a job should he choose to leave. But in my opinion his best strength is in supporting the development of young players.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – No indication he was injured, media outlets questioned the decision. If you see anything from Cora explaining the decision please let me know as I’m curious what he gives for a reason. I fear it would be the typical “I wanted him to have two consecutive days off” BS which he tends to do with offdays.
Yes on McGuire, who replaced Heineken anyway after just one AB. Does it make sense to burn one of the few position players on the bench so early in a game? No, of course not.
I know how Cora operates, he sent a message to the front office with that move.
I’ve already posted a few times that Cora doesn’t have much to work with, glad you agree :O)
Isn’t the development of Yoshida just as important, if not more important, than Heineken?
I see you’re a big Cora fan and I respect that, I will try not to discuss him with you. It’s just hard sometimes trying to remember who likes who and who dislikes who.
Me, I’m easy because I don’t take sides on players or manager or coaching staff etc. I will defend and criticize based on right and wrong, nothing more.
tff17
I try to be fair to all… I’m not so much a Cora “fan” as it is that I try to understand his strengths and weaknesses, same as I do with players. It is very easy for us to focus on the weaknesses but that is rarely the whole picture.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Just like the Astros have only played good teams to start their season.
It’s still early but I don’t think the RS are as bad as some fans make it out to be. I think those extensions will work out.
Trollfree
It’s amazing how clueless fans are when it comes to whether their team is on a hot streak or simply playing bad teams. Clowns like Amsinger and Reynolds and many other MLB experts have the same issue because they don’t dig into the details.
Boston is now 13-10 and many think they are on a hot streak. They are not because they play CLE next who beat them three out of four in Boston. This time they have to play in CLE where their chances are lower.
So the month was supposed to end with a record of 16-16 and be the best month of the year thanks to a very weak schedule. The season is progressing exactly as planned.. Each series varies from the prediction but just like last year the number of positive results are off set by nearly the exact same number of negative results. Last year the prediction was 74 wins and the team won 78 thanks to NYY and TOR. In 2024, there will be anomaly series both positive and negative. But in the end, fans need to realize it’s the strength of opponents that dictates the season results, not hot and cold play. It’s Boston sweeping bad teams like PIT and OAK and being swept by excellent teams like BAL. Nobody is hot right now, they are just playing a bad team and are now traveling to a good team to be beat up and called cold by the media not simply over matched like they were in BOS.
13-10 with 9 games left in April against CLE, SF and CHC. If BOS loses 2 of 3 in each series the team will be 16-16 just as predicted by the end of April.
Is that hot or cold? NO. They either play better or worse teams. It’s that simply. Now, with all the injuries it seems unlikely they will win 3 games but it could happen. The problem is May is going to be very ugly in comparison.
April saw four bad teams two got sweep and BOS won against the other two bad teams 2-1. They played two average series and lost 5 of 8 games and got swept by the lone good team.
Here is May’s schedule:
MIN (AVG), ATL (GOOD), WAS (BAD), TB (GOOD), STL (AVG) TB (GOOD), MIL (AVG), BAL (GOOD) and DET (AVG).
28 games and the highest probability for 9 wins. At that point the 25-35 record puts them 10 games under .500, at least 5 games behind 4th place and completely written off for the players by May 31.
So consider the fact that BOS won’t be cold in May, they will simply be over matched. They will have one series where they may look to be hot since it’s against WAS but they won’t be hot, they will simply over match WAS. The next series will be against TB and they will once again be over matched.
So JB, get your bragging in about being hot right now because it’s not going to last and recognize BOS will only be favored in TWO series between now and July.
tff17
Good points, TF, but baseball isn’t that deterministic. They have been playing a weak schedule, but they have also done a little better than you would expect even given the level of competition.
They could lose 2 of 3 in the next three series, but that wouldn’t be a smart wager. It is a long season, though, and unlikely that the pitching will remain THIS good. Last I checked their projected record on Fangraphs was still around .500.
DBH1969
@Trollfree. First, good to see you bro. I haven’t seen you around much lately, I hope.all is well.
On to topic, as usual, good analysis. Just a couple things to keep in mind.
I still think ending .500.maybe over optimistic, however as I posted above, I can see this team maybe reaching .500.
1. Sox are beating bad teams. I think most us here saw them losing a lot of thise games
2. Seems like half the team is on the IL, indeed, we are at the 40 man limit for position players, and maybe pitchers, too? And still finding ways to win. Story, Devers, O’Neil, and Casas out yesterday with Ceddanne leading off.. and still won.
3. Starters doing much better than expected.
4. Joelybis the only soft spot in the Pen.
Yes, all this against bad teams, but I refer to pont #1 with 2 to 4. They are still winning against bad teams.
Now at some point this year, they will healthy, playing bad teams, and lose. This is the good run. There will be.a bad run.
But still, this team could see 81 wins.
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – That’s a bold precise prediction man, you seeing 81 wins but not 82?
I will always remain optimistic as usual, months ago I posted a path to contention that involved good team health and big seasons from players such as Casas, Yoshida and Duran. The talent is there, but injuries and poor managing are always the wildcard.
I have never thought this could be a sub-70-win team. If forced to make a prediction all I will say is they will win at least 70 games.
I also never expected them to lose against bad teams. They have too much talent, they should plow over teams like Oakland, ChiSox, Marlins and Rox.
I doublechecked just now, there are no pitcher limits for the 40-man ….. only for the 26-man. The Red Sox are being crucified for their roster management and lack of depth, but again it’s not surprising when a front office and ownership doesn’t care about winning. They punted on this season months ago, we all know that. So really what’s the point of depth? Some people think they will spend over $8M on a guy like Belt …. I seriously doubt that will happen. Even though I do want Belt, I wouldn’t give him nearly that much.
Just try to focus on the positives, the talented players. Forget about wins and losses, you can’t win a gunfight with just a knife.
tff17
The players on the 40-man roster are the ones who can be brought up and down easily. It makes sense to stack that with pitchers, because one of the keys to avoiding a pitching collapse (like we saw last season) is the ability to cycle pitchers through the last 1-2 spots in the bullpen to cover the innings.
There were 727 pitchers in the majors last year with 5+ innings pitched (not even counting those who got one or two innings and then were tossed back). Averages out to 24+ pitchers per team or 60% of the 40-man roster. The Red Sox roster balance is not unusual.
Pitchers are also easier to claim in the Rule 5 draft — for example Slaten and Paulino were both seen as marginal prospects. Slaten got claimed and is working in the majors in a low-leverage relief role. Paulino wasn’t taken.
tff17
You asked what it would take to get Belt… Players need 10 years of service time to qualify for a MLB pension, so those who are shy of that cutoff will do anything to add a little more service time. Belt has had a solid career and made good money. He has already turned down a low-base incentive-laden deal from the Mets. I could easily be off on the $10M (annualized) estimate, but I don’t think I’m *that* far off. He is never going to sign for the major league minimum.
I’m doubtful that ownership will approve the expense, though. Tough when you can’t afford a legit starting player to plug a gaping hole in the starting lineup.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – The thing is, nobody can be brought up from the 40 unless someone is removed from the 26.
I’m just pointing out Cora has lost many games because he had players playing out of position, or no hitters on the bench that he could use to pinch-hit in key situations or be pinch runners or defensive replacements.
In 2004 Dave Roberts never would have stolen that base off Mariano because there wouldn’t have been a roster spot for him. Same thing with Kirk Gibson against Eck, never woulda happened with today’s pitcher-heavy hitter-light rosters.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – I totally agree with your last paragraph, I think no matter what the results of today’s testing Casas will likely miss a couple months.
It will be interesting to see if he eventually gets criticized for his lack of conditioning, as you probably know he has quite the reputation for yoga/grounding/napping instead of traditional workouts.
Trollfree
DBH – Been down a rough road for the last month but I’m recovering well from the surgeries. Thanks for your comments.
Now on to baseball!! Breaking down the competition is a strong counter argument to your point.
Key to why things are more negative than you might think:
7 remaining series with bad teams, 13 remaining series with average teams and 26 series remaining against good teams.
Bad Team Series – 4 completed successfully with 7 left. 2 prior to the all-star game so a long dry spell with reduced winning.
Average Team Series – 2 completed unsuccessfully. Fell back 2 wins on the predicted results. 13 more series are left. With similar results to their first two, they could lose 13 games more than those predicted. If they play to the prediction that will keep them closer to the 66 wins than they would otherwise achieve.
Good Team Series – Small sample in 1 series that was a sweep so nothing should be read into it. BOS has 26 more series versus good teams. 10 in the first half and 16 in the second half and it’s similar to 2023 in that there are significant AL East games in late September.
Last year NYY and TOR hiccuped early in the season and got swept by BOS when they were expect to win 2 of 3. Anomalies happen BUT in SEP TOR swept BOS twice to even the score leaving the NYY the primary reason BOS won 4 more games than expected.
Anomalies will happen versus good teams, average teams and bad teams but the baseline is the baseline and the standard deviation will usually vary both above and below the projected wins in each series. By adding more good team series and average team series and taking away many bad team series in 2024 the projection dropped from 74 to 66. 66 is just a number based on quality of the opponents but it is the baseline from which the anomalies will dictate the final wins.
For me, as each player goes down to injury the balance of talent is impacted and it makes it that much harder for BOS to win versus a weak team, ever more difficult to beat an average team like Cleveland and extremely difficult to not be swept by good teams. The survival seems to fall on the young pitchers to keep the team in the games. I hope that happens but even that might not be enough because while CLE has comparable pitching they have significant better hitting. ONE win in CLE is a moral victory.
I’m not being negative, I am simply trying to get folks to realize that if the Red Sox are playing the Bad News Bears that being hot has more to do with the quality of pitching than literally an improvement in play. Progress on offense and defense can be observed but it will be gradual and the improvement can better be observed at year end than from game to game. That’s the ideal ending to 2024, more talent going into 2025 than we have right now.
Fever Pitch Guy
TF – Fantastic analysis, on behalf of everyone thank you!!!
And don’t worry about upsetting the snowflakes. It’s not “being negative”, it’s being REALISTIC and calling a spade a spade. That’s what TRUE fans do!
If real Americans didn’t stand up against oppression during the Boston Tea Party, this country would still be under British rule. We MUST get the oppressive Red Sox ownership to either change their ways or sell.
tff17
One of the few positives about the roster this year is that there are a LOT of players with options. And really no shortage of guys I’m not going to miss if they get sent down for a couple weeks. So the 26 man roster is less of a concern to me at this time.
The 40 man roster is a bigger issue. I’m not seeing a legit backup (can’t call him a replacement) for Casas at 1B right now other than Dalbec. Kavadas at AAA isn’t on the 40. Belt and Cron are not on the 40. I haven’t heard anything yet suggesting Casas should be moved to the 60-day DL, so they would need to make a cut. Maybe Mata? I don’t know…
In the game today you have just a four-man bench, 13 position players and 13 relievers. Tough to carry specialists.
tff17
You disappoint me with that line, FPG, i thought you followed the team a little more closely than that? I can understand how a casual fan might latch onto something that happened over a year ago, but there is plenty of evidence supporting Casas’ workouts since that time.
Besides, the criticism makes no sense. Yoga and stretching regimes *reduce* strains and sprains. If anything, this would be evidence that Casas (and Whitlock who also hit the weights hard this winter) aren’t doing enough yoga.
tff17
“Progress on offense and defense can be observed but it will be gradual and the improvement can better be observed at year end than from game to game. That’s the ideal ending to 2024, more talent going into 2025 than we have right now.”
I’ll second that… I’m not terribly interested in lineup construction, bullpen decisions, or whatever this year. And honestly it isn’t that important that the bench is crap. This is a development season, NOT one in which our playoff hopes will rest on those AL East games in September.
Just hoping to see progress, especially from the borderline players who NEED to make progress to stay in the majors. I like what we’ve seen from the young pitching so far, and Abreu had a breakout week. Casas was going strong before the injury. Now maybe Rafaela can figure out his swing decisions?!?
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Wait, huh? I didn’t say yoga or grounding or napping or suntanning is a bad thing, I just pointed out he’s been criticized a lot for spending so much time on it instead of working out.
You think he stopped sunbathing over a year ago?
Ummmm …. you may want to take that back after seeing this pic from just 3 weeks ago :O)
sfgate.com/athletics/article/sunbather-oakland-col…
“With the Red Sox opening the season on the West Coast, first in Seattle and now in Oakland, Casas has been caught bare-chested twice already.” – April 1, 2024
“Where does outfield yoga rank amongst pregame routines? #RedSox pic.twitter.com/nHR8NMJZ02”
tff17
I think the criticisms for the grounding/sunbathing/whatever have been badly overblown, don’t really care to talk about it. If it doesn’t disturb Cora or his teammates, why would I care? (If it did disturb Cora, he would put an end to it.)
Casas puts plenty of time into his workouts. The two are not exclusive.
He was on a 40 home run pace when he got injured. I know that is very different from actually hitting 40 home runs, but the power is undeniably there.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – I respect your desire to not talk about it. Casas admitted it angered a lot of teammates in the past, but like I said before as long as Casas continues to produce offensively I couldn’t care less what he does outside the games. If it continues to be a disruption in the clubhouse, the players will surely handle it. Especially guys like O’Neill and Story.
BTW – Cora denied it, not surprising as he always supports his players …. unless they are named Verdugo. LOL!
Oh and hopefully now you realize I follow the team quite closely ;O)
GASoxFan
TFF – I own up to being one who criticizes Casas for the nail painting, the sunbathing, etc…
Why? Part of it is there has to be *some* standards of professionalism for a major league baseball player, which, includes how you carry yourself and your appearance on GameDay.
If you want to sunbathe nude on a rooftop in Brookline outside of the stadium I don’t care. But the ball field on GameDay isn’t the place for it. And appearancewise, I’m all for beards, scruffy hair, all that. But we draw the line somewhere, right? We don’t want a guy with post Malone tattoos, goth makeup, painted nails, and teeth filed to cone points while wearing 15 chains do we?
Don’t need to go full Yankees appearance clause necessarily, but, draw the line somewhere.
And, all that other stuff takes away from what he should be doing- learning defense.
That’s the end of my rant, and, it’s OK you don’t want to go there. Full respect for that.
The totality of the mindset and constitution though for Tristan concerns me. I think he was a babied ‘me kid’ whose mom doted on him and let him have his way on everything.
How he responded in the clubhouse to friction when called up? Red flag.
Zero common sense because he was having a hot streak and didn’t want to give it up, during a period he was trying to make his case for BIG extension money? Now instead of being out a few days, he could be out months? RED FLAG.
I think he’s going to be a clubhouse problem as he ages, I get a narcissist feel out of him, never putting team first, just stubborn and it’s his way or nothing.
tff17
@FPG, Yeah, I know you follow them closely, which is why it puzzles me when you seem to miss part of the story on a key player like Casas. I absolutely agree he is “unique”, but that doesn’t have to come with negative connotations. It is arguably a necessary element to achieve greatness (tough to be great if you are ordinary). Part of his uniqueness is an almost obsessive approach to improving his hitting, and an extreme confidence that he WILL be great. Which is why he wasn’t yet ready to accept the long term deal that the Red Sox offered.
I haven’t ever heard anything that suggests he is dismissive of teammates. And yes, the veterans (including Turner and Jansen last year) would already have addressed it if they had serious concerns.
I gotta wonder why Cora felt he needed to call out Verdugo publicly. In comments since (especially after the trade), Verdugo made it pretty clear that he was hurt by that, did not feel that he had done anything terribly wrong.
For what it’s worth, Marmol seems to have had similar issues with O’Neill in the past…
@GASoxFan I work with teens, and can vouch for the fact that their standards of professionalism don’t always align with those of their elders. I wasn’t terribly offended by his sunbathing, and it sounds like (after discussing it with him) his teammates have come to accept it as well. So to me it is a non-issue. Guess I can understand why it is a bigger deal for others.
You want to approach the world with the confidence that you are great? Then show them you are great! If Casas can do that, then all will (or should be) excused. But if he can’t live up to his vision of his potential then he will need to learn humility. For what it’s worth, I get the feeling that Verdugo struggled with this a bit as well — too much flash and too little substance?
I like that he is willing to bet on himself. Best thing for everybody involved is if he earns that deal he is hoping for.
My biggest concern with Casas is his health. He missed time in 2022, then again last year, and now this “rib” injury. (Intercostal perhaps?) Ankle injury in 2022, shoulder injury in 2023, and now this… Hitting the weights to add muscle is the easy part of working out, but you have to also put in time to maintain flexibility and core strength. Surprising to me the number of ballplayers who get that balance wrong. (Remember Benintendi’s problems with that a few years back?)
Fever Pitch Guy
TF – Great to see you again!!! As always excellent post!
Thankfully I can’t see the braggers, but I have to laugh how every year going back to 2022 they do the same damn thing …. they puff out their little chest and crow about how great the team is during the first couple months when they beat up on bad teams, and then when the Sox start playing a lot of games against good teams and inevitably fall below .500 they disappear. That seems to be a common thing with fairweather fans, they are the loudest braggarts when the team is winning and then they become non-existent when the team is losing.
I’m a realist, I know this ownership doesn’t give a damn about winning and Cora is too stubborn to improve his managing. So I root for the players and support their development, that’s what is most important right now. The guy that really excites me the most is Abreu, I can see why Vegas had him as one of the favorites for ROY.
Let’s see how they do in Cleveland with O’Neill and Devers back, if they can stay within 8 games by the end of May that will be an accomplishment. The schedule gets really brutal a month from now, lots of games against Milwaukee, Baltimore, Tampa, Philly, Yankees, Toronto and San Diego.
tff17
My “home forum” is the BOSOX listserv… I do enjoy participating elsewhere, as time and interest permits, but I’m always posting somewhere even if I disappear here for long stretches of time.
Totally agree on rooting for the players and their development. A season like this can be useful to sort through some of the marginal prospects, find out what they are capable of handling. Abreu is one of those (always questioned by the prospect mavens) and I agree that he has the potential to step up and make a career as a regular.
I have no illusions about contending this season. Not impossible that they slip into the playoffs, but if it happens it happens. That shouldn’t drive the team decisions at this point. If they really wanted to contend they should have opened the pocketbook a crack this past winter.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – I meant to ask you before, what exactly is that listserve? Is that kinda like an old school forum where articles are posted and there’s a bunch of different messageboards?
DBH1969
I am also curious. Would love a link, TFF
Trollfree
TFF17 and Fever – I’m on the same page about rooting for individuals. Houck, Crawford, O”Neill and Duran all have been great and others too. For me the 2024 focus is talent escalation. The more the better. We have a lot of talent that we need to acquire before we can compete.
Fever Pitch Guy
TF – Watch Abreu, he will be a ROY contender, He’s not the best fielder, but man is he strong and can hit for power! His homer the other day was an absolute moonshot!!
tff17
Yeah, real old school. It is an email list — members send to the listserv and the messages get bounced by email to the entire list. Is a good group of fans, we’ve been together there since the early 90s.
Subscription link here if you want to give it a try:
apple.ease.lsoft.com/scripts/wa-PLUTO.exe?SUBED1=B…
tff17
Oh, don’t get me started on that!!! I **love** what Houck has done this year, riding that filthy slider for 6+ innings regularly. I’ll admit up front that I had given up on him as a starter given his middle-inning struggles, but he has really proven me wrong.
Crawford has been tremendous, though in his case it is more steady progress over the last 2-3 years. Back in 2022 he was ranked below Seabold. A short two years later he is one of the best pitchers in the game.
Duran has also surprised me with his improved plate discipline and tremendous line drive rate.
I’m usually wrong, so no shock there, but I love when the kids do BETTER than I was expecting!
And FPG, Abreu needs better throw decisions, but he has good range for a corner OF and a strong arm. With experience he could be strong defensively as well.
Trollfree
Fever – Rafaela and Abreu are two young players with specific challenges they need to overcome.
Abreu is extremely streaky. In 2023 he hit 100 points higher than Rafaela and played the same number of games. The challenge is that in 3 games he got 14 of his 18 hits and went with only 4 hits in the rest. Rafaela on the other had couldn’t maintain his patience. He would put up a hit in several games then fail and start reaching out of the strike zone. He needs to MAINTAIN discipline whereas Abreu needs to stay consistent day to day and not could one huge games to keep his numbers looking good.
Having Duran, Rafaela, Abreu and Anthony developing into excellent hitters will make the team very strong for years. It’s quality depth and BOS needs that across every offensive position. All four outfielders need to continue getting accustomed to the design of Fenway so they stop making the route mistakes and the hesitations on when choosing which base to throw to and the footwork.
I’m with you on Abreu but I also like Duran, Rafaela and Anthony because they all a superior talents compared to the other farm system guys added more recently. I believe they are the potential all-stars of the future along with Teel.
Trollfree
TFF17 – I’ve been a huge Houck fan for years. While folks were criticizing the 3rd time through the order crap, I was trying to figure out what was causing the issue. It was never about his stuff falling off, it was partially a coaching staff problem because the game plans didn’t fit his stuff and it was partially the movement on the ball as he threw more pitches. The new pitching coaches fixed the first issue and they have worked with him on reading the impact of volume in a game on the movement of his pitches. The end result is lots more strikes and lots less pitches to far off the plate to temp hitters to go for them. The coaches have done an excellent job with Houck and Crawford.
I agree on Abreu and his throw decision making. It is fixable and that’s the good news. Just like getting Rafaela patience when he doesn’t meet his own expectations. In many ways, he resembles Devers from an expectations stand point and a lack of maturity at handling failure in a single game.
tff17
My mistake was in trusting the coaches to know what they were doing. Amazing the difference that the new staff has made, and I agree that it helped Houck figure it out. Huge difference in value between a good starter and a good closer (which is what I had thought he might end up being). Glad he has made that leap.
Any thoughts on Whitlock? My concern there is his health — wondering if a relief role might suit him better?
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – I always say there’s good and bad in EVERY occupation.
So many times people have jobs they don’t deserve. They get them and keep them either because they are close to the hiring boss, or they’ve been with the same employer for a very long time.
Case in point, Carlos Febles. He was in the Red Sox organization for 17 years! But he absolutely sucked as 3B coach last year. Cora wanted to keep him because he was close to him, but thankfully he was overruled. Now Febles is Toronto’s problem!
Fever Pitch Guy
TF – Which begs the question, which of those 4 guys goes?
They cannot keep all 4 longterm, unless Rafaela moves to a crowded infield.
I really think, as do many, that Duran will be the one to go. And I will NOT be happy when that happens.
But Abreu has the most upside offense-wise, Anthony is the most talented of MAT, and Rafaela is locked up for a very long time.
Sorry but trading either Duran or Abreu instead of Rafaela will likely be a big mistake.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – What about Whitlock? It’s the EXACT same situation as Houck, everyone insisted Whitlock is good only as a reliever and they insisted he gets injured only as a starter.
Whitlock had just ONE YEAR as strictly a reliever, there’s no trend. It’s silly how people assumed he couldn’t be a good starting pitcher, and this year he’s really proving that!
Crawford was very quietly the BEST starting pitcher last year, I’m glad he’s getting the attention now that he deserves.
I think Abreu can be another Manny ….. strong arm, can make some great plays, but will likely botch some routine plays. As long as he keeps hitting for power I’m cool with the defense, I’ll take a great hitter over a great fielder any day of the week.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – Thanks! So it’s kinda like posting on a messageboard, except it’s done through email?
Yeah talkin’ baseball is always more fun when everyone is friendly and having fun. Baseball is my true passion, college hoops is a distant second.
tff17
Duran, Rafaela, Anthony, and Abreu?
Let’s see how all four progress this year. Right now, Duran is the best of the four — but he is also closest to his ceiling. Anthony might be the best of the bunch but is still a step or two away from the majors. Rafaela is the only “true” CF, though Anthony is sticking there longer than some expected he would.
There are various ways that you might keep all four. Get Rafaela some time at 2B/SS, or move Yoshida (might need to happen anyways) and cycle them through DH.
Duran is older than the others, and might only have a few years of peak production before he declines. Of course the other three aren’t at their peak yet.
It is a good problem to have… (If in fact we actually get to that point.)
tff17
No, the situation with Whitlock is very different. He has an arsenal that screams “starting pitcher” but has already had his first TJ and broke down in 2022, 2023, and 2024 when trying to pitch as a starter.
There’s some reason to believe that throwing 160 innings as a starter puts more stress on the body than throwing 80 innings in relief. And heck, a closer these days might not go over 60.
No, I don’t know that moving him to relief would keep him healthy. But he lasted 9 starts in 2022 before that hip injury, three starts in April 2023 before his first injury, another seven starts before his second.. Four starts this year…
Would you put money on him making ten consecutive starts without breaking down? If not, then how can he possibly be a starting pitcher?
No question about his ability, or even his ability to pitch multiple times through the lineup. With Whitlock it is 100% a question of keeping him on the mound.
And yes, a listserv is basically an email based message forum. You still see them sometimes for professional or affinity groups, though I guess some of those have moved to Slack? I’m too old for all this new tech…
Trollfree
TFF17 – Whitlock has a talent a lot of relief pitchers don’t have. A few years ago he showed he could come in after the starter and get the team out of the inning without giving up the runners on base. That is incredibly rare. We have watched the for four years as Cora picked the wrong guy to follow the starter. Think about how many guys have scored due to the wrong choice. I watch Whitlock protect leads and I was very impressed. The entire success of the pitching staff changes if he is the guy who pitches what I call the stress inning so the starters ERA is minimized.
Between bad defense by Devers and good relief holding base runners by Whitlock, the team could win many more games. I wouldn’t use Whitlock to start. Houck, Crawford, Bello are the core guys. Boston needs a SP1 in 2024 and the pitching staff needs to find one more young guy to round out the order and ideally they really need 3 in house guys to become quality depth for the future.
Hope the pitching coaches give Whitlock a shot at being the stress guy and I hope Whitlock can recapture the skill that separates him from other relievers..
Trollfree
Fever – Think about the situation from a control perspective.
Duran is in arbitration to 2029.
Abreu is in arbitration to 2030 and pre-arb to 2026
Rafaela is locked up through 2031.
Anthony if he comes up in 2024 he’ll be a free agent in 2031.
If Breslow allows for a longer test period for Abreu and Anthony maybe the team can be more certain who the top 3 players are. Rafaela is already locked in so he’s a keeper.
Duran needs a year more of success and should get a decent offer and be player two.. Arbitration starts in 2025 for Duran so I believe 2025 will be the decision year on him.
Anthony and Abreu has so many years of cheap cost that a good manager will find ways for the four OFers to play frequently like Texas does with Garcia, Carter, Lankford and several other young contributors like Taveras, Smith,Foscue and others. They are deep and Boston can be too since no long term contract needs to happen soon.
You’ve have put yourself in a box with your thinking. Check out the Ranger, Braves and Dodgers. They all have much better depth than Boston but that can change in just two years if we don’t think 3 ONLY works.
Trollfree
Fever – My belief is a player needs to be suited for his skills and I think Whitlock was outstanding in 2021 when he pulled the team out of the fire many times. If he still can do that he’s a logical choice for keeping runners on base when the starter has a rough inning and needs to come out. So many games are lost when the wrong reliever is inserted when the starter gets in trouble. The team ERA is impacted when the bases are cleared due to bad relief and Cora is an expert at it.
I think your perception of Abreu is premature. I think he has some above league average skills just like Rafaela, Duran and Anthony. Don’t forget the team also has an outstanding O”Neill who simply needs to not play Devers. DEPT, DEPT and more DEPT. Boston needs to fill the cupboards for 5 years and figure out who the long term contracts will be.
Declaring a guy like Abreu at this many at bats as great seems like a bad idea since he’s incredibly streaky. We need to monitor adjustments being made by each of the young outfielders to get a better sense of who can develop as a hitter. Duran is leading the pack. Abreu and Rafaela are figuring things out and will bounce up and down as they make adjustments. Anthony has not even started the process. I say conclusions are premature today. Give it some time.
tff17
Great commentary, Trollfree, on Whitlock and the outfielders.
I’m usually not one to jump on manager decisions, and he hasn’t had a whole lot to work with some years, but I *do* get tired of seeing Joely Rodriguez as the first arm out of the pen just because he is a lefty. With runners on base I want somebody (like Whitlock) who can really pitch.
Trollfree
My bad – DEPTH DEPTH DEPTH. Spelling still a challenge!!
Nobby
Rafaela is an excellent fill in for shortstop and has really solidified the defense. Maybe he will start to hit and become the Betts replacement. Asking for a lot, I know but, hey, I can dream.
tff17
Ought to be a moratorium on comparing Rafaela and Betts. I mean they do have some of the same skill set, but there is a HUGE difference in their plate discipline. That’s like comparing Dalbec to Mark McGwire.
Fever Pitch Guy
TFF – I think the comparisons come from the fact both players are both infielders and outfielders who are known for their speed and making great plays.
But yeah I totally agree, Rafaela isn’t anywhere near as good a hitter or fielder as Mookie was at that same point in his career.
DBH1969
Hahaha. Now that made me laugh out loud!!! Thanks! Dalbec v McGwire. Hahah
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – Little known fact, Ted Williams had a CAREER OBP of .482 which is absolutely wild …. he essentially reached base safely every other PA for his entire career!
Bruin1012
Ted also missed three years in his prime for the war and the I believe he missed 1952 for the Korean War. He missed a total of 4 years 3 in his absolute prime when he was better than a 10 WAR player. He likely would have hit 130 or more homers and he did that as a dead pull hitter in Fenway imagine how many homers with the short porch in Yankee Stadium. The best hitter in the history of baseball for my money.
Fever Pitch Guy
Bruin – Glad to see another Ted fan here! Yeah he definitely would have also gotten 3,000 hits if he hadn’t missed so much time serving the country. He was a remarkable man, also a HOF-caliber fisherman and pilot.
Bruin1012
Might have been a better fisherman than a baseball player that’s saying something. He loved to fish and sounds like he was equally intense.
Bruin1012
Read his book as a young Ladd as well. His eye site was truly amazing he set gunnery records as well with his 20/10 vision. Truly remarkable vision.
JoeBrady
That was the right move.
And my theory is that moving to SS might help his hitting. If Cora tells him to catch every ball, and not worry if he doesn’t get any hits at all, maybe the stress he was feeling at the plate might dissipate. Making a nice play defensively makes your next AB a whole lot easier.
DBH1969
His BA will shoot up if he stops trying to pull every outside pitch.