The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.
Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.
Orioles
The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.
Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.
The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.
Royals
The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.
An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.
They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.
Yankees
The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.
Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.
The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.
They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.
Brewers
The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.
There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.
They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.
Mets
After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.
They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.
They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.
Giants
The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.
Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.
They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.
Cardinals
Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.
Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.
They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.
Mariners
The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.
The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.
Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.
The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.
Marlins
The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.
Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.
They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.
Astros
The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.
Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)
With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.
The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.
Twins
The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.
Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.
In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.
___________________________________
Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)
I don’t believe in the Mets pitching at all. That will come down to Earth. I do think their lineup is underrated, but I can’t see them winning at this pace. Orioles and Yankees are two of the best teams in the league. So of course they’ll keep winning.
NYY winning despite Torres/Judge droughts is impressive. If Volpe continues at this pace, sky’s the limit.
Mets are like that body builder that gets hit in the face by the jujutsu guy. Once the real challenge comes they’ll fold.
Wouldn’t you consider losing your best pitcher in spring training and starting season 0-5 challenges? I’m genuinely asking
In recent history, this Mets team has crumbled in pressure situations. I think the low expectations are going to help them this year. There is no pressure on this squad, and they’re playing loose.
@Shadow Banned Bader is the only bat that looks to be clearly overperforming. And of the 6 teams they ve played 5 are above .500 and the other CIN is .500.
Why is it you regularly make these assumptions as if these are not things that are tracked??
There bullpen is for real and they have one of the best pitchers in the game returning in May. You may not believe but unfortunately for you they are genuinely one of the best staffs in the league.
You believe Quintana is an effective SP2-3? Manaea, Houser, Butto? Senga magically has no more shoulder ailments. “Best pitchers in the game.” Puff Puff Pass.
Butto has been electric so far this year. Just because you don’t know his name doesn’t mean anything. Everyone else on the staff are all solid number 3 pitchers. With a bullpen that has been lights out. Their era is almost a half run better the. The Phillies and almost a run and half a game better then Braves, Nationals and Marlins. Hard to argue with results so far. They have another prospect ready to be called up in Scott who is looking to be a difference maker at any moment as well. If you don’t think Senga is one of the Best in baseball I don’t know what to tell you.
He didn’t say Senga wasn’t good. He said that his shoulder issues aren’t going to just disappear. We’ll revisit this in July.
Butto is 2 GS in (DET, KC), ranked 25th and 18th in team AVG – let’s see how he fares against LAD. He’s had 2 nice showings, but he’s outperforming 7 years worth of MiLB stats. Could it be that bad offenses/young hitters don’t have much of a scouting report on him? Glad he’s keeping the seat warm for Jett.
Senga was one of the best arms last year — which gave him a sore shoulder. Welcome 2024.
You’re right Welcome to 2024. The Mets have the best era in the NL by almost a half a run on the Phillies. If you think the Royals have a bad offense then you haven’t been watching. Bobby Witt the best player in baseball. They are 12-6 for a reason.
@Mets6986 — you were boasting about their starting pitching, yet using team ERA (that also includes bullpen ERA).
NYM: 3.29 SP team ERA / PHI: 2.54 SP team ERA
Yes. I was confused by that comment as well.
I was boasting about their staff. You are the one breaking it down by starters alone. I didn’t realize the Phillies bullpen was the horrredous if their starters era was 2.54 was that good. That won’t hold up. They are in a lot of trouble then. That would be really concerning as a Phillies fan. The Mets starters ERA won’t drop off much but there’s no way the Phillies starters are doing that all season.
If you think the Mets starters are going to be this good all year, then I have a bridge to sell you. I’d take the Phillies rotation over the Mets in a heartbeat. Phillies bullpen stumbled early, but they’ve been fine since.
Sure, PHI has some leveling out, but Nola was bad last year and Wheeler has been the best SP since 2020, period. I wouldn’t doubt Suarez/Sanchez being better than average, while having some stud arms (Abel, eventually Painter) waiting in the wings. It’s no contest between rotations. Sevvy hasn’t pitched more than 102 IP since 2018 (!) which Wheeler almost doubled in 1 season 3x. Goodness.
“Electric”
There you go again with just talking about starting pitching. The Phillies have better starting pitching. It’s not drastic but they are better. However the games are 9 innings long and don’t end when the starting pitcher leaves. Overall the Mets pitching is better than the Phillies pitching. I know as a Phillies fan you thought you had the second place all locked up with an outside shot at winning the division. Now you realize it will be a battle all year long and the Mets aren’t going anywhere. The problem is you fail to realize the pieces the organization brought in with Stearns that makes pitchers better. Why do you think Brewers pitchers always outperformed every year? They may not be all great but they all will be solid all year long and that wins baseball games.
The Phillies bullpen was rated #1 by MLB before the season started. The Phillies had 3 games where they were up by 7 or more and put in poor relievers who gave up a bunch of meaningless runs. Those relievers will be sent down and aren’t part of the picture (save for Soto who had 1 awful inning). The bullpen ERA is worse than it looks because of those situations. Phils have a solid bullpen. I love the Mets backend. Diaz is elite, but I wouldn’t say the Mets bullpen is better than the Phillies yet. Let’s see what happens around June.
And I really don’t think the Mets will be fighting for second at all. I think they’re playing great baseball at the start of the season like they always do. Again, let’s see where they stand in June. I think they’ll be in the playoff picture, but not fighting for 2nd.
All I’m saying is the NL east is really fun to watch right now and that’s all I care about. At least I have an argument to make after last season.
It’s a shame with the new schedules that the NLE doesn’t play as much. It’s going to be hard to gain any ground on Atlanta, but still, it’s a fun start for the top 3 in the NLE. Not so much for the Fish.
The starting pitching is overperforming. Senga’s injury is concerning. I absolutely expect regression there. I like the Mets bullpen, but in the last 3 seasons we saw the bullpen struggle in the 2nd half. Diaz being healthy helps keep the backend elite. But the 6-8th inning guys need to hold up.
@VonPurpleHayes ‘Coming down to Earth,’ though, shouldn’t result in a crash, but more like combined ERAs after Senga (arguendo) and Quintana of 4.25-4.50, below average but not by too much—figuring the league average ERA will end up around 4.25..
The Mets also have a respectable cadre of guys who rate to put up ERAs in the 4.25-5.00 range: Megill, Butto, Lucchsei, Peterson, Vasil, Hamel, Walker (maybe a stretch), Nunez,… with Christian Scott looking like he has solid MOR stuff and belongs in the tier above them.
Which leaves a lot depending on the offense, which has been average to this point and has as many as seven guys, perhaps eight with the addition of JD Martinez, capable of better than average performance, several significantly better than average. .
There’s a chance. All I’m saying.
I picked both the Mets and Padres as my dark horse playoff contenders. I felt both their rosters were being over looked/under valued.
The Yankees are surprising to me, I didn’t think Rodon would be horrible again this year but I thought trading their pitching depth was going to be very costly especially after Cole got hurt.
Mets fan here. I don’t think the team is playoff caliber but they certainly are fun to watch right now.
I don’t know about their pitching but I do really like the offense. I could see them being buyers at the deadline
Why don’t you think they are playoff caliber? You do realize teams barely above .500 can make the playoffs?
I wouldn’t even argue against a 3rd WC spot. I just think they’ll hover around .500 most of the year. Right now, they’re playing like one of the best teams in the league. I don’t expect that to last. That doesn’t mean I don’t expect them to be decent.
If senga can come back and not look like a pitcher pitching w an Injury, I’ll start believing more. For niw im just enjoying it. I do think coming into the year many forgot they still have quite a few talented players.
I suspect they are all real, save NYM and MIL. The Mets are all of 10-8. And I seriously doubt the Brewers hitting is all that improved.
I think prob the 10-3 run is why they are on the list
And the 10-3 run coming against Det 1-2 @ Reds 2-1, @Atlanta 2-1, KC 2-1, Pirates 3-0… All teams which had winning records when the Mets faced them
And who beat the Mets???
Yeah and besides Atlanta none of those teams are good either.
You could argue that all those teams (save for Atlanta) are overperforming and were due for losses. Still, the Mets have been playing great ball.
If you dont think the Brewers hitting is all that improved, you do *not* know what kind of trash lineup they were throwing out there on a daily basis last year. My goodness. Atrocious. This years lineup is significantly improved.
Okay, fair. It did look better at a 2nd glance. I’m still not sure just how much though.
Dark don’t know crap he may feel special and that’s ok he has a right to feel special but the brewers are Rowling that division is not impressive why can’t they win it????
This exact reason is one of the ones as to why I’m not buying it. Y’all could still win the Central and I wouldn’t buy it being anything but being just better than the rest of a poor crop. Winning the NLC means practically nothing save a ticket to probably get stomped in the WC round, and the DS if you’re lucky. FWIW I’d say the same thing about more or less any other NLC team.
A comment from mustache is why you arent buying it? Hmm, okay. I dont think the Brewers will run away with the division. I wouldnt put money on any specific team this year. As far as the playoffs are concerned, the “best” teams dont often win it. Just have to make it and get hot to have a punchers chance.
Mets will Met!!
Brewers will Brew!
Orioles Good for Long Run!
Astros Getting Karma
Payback from Cheating!
How many current Astros were on the 2017 team?
These guys act like they have not had sustained success for 6 years after they stopped stealing signs. Karma would be the sustained success for taking the fall, while letting go multiple stars.
Dark don’t understand divisions prob a large market fan there isn’t one in particular in the central but dark doesn’t understand that
The brewers are cat poop to him I bet his team isn’t better if so not by much…. But he still hates cause he can
Records don’t lie
What does dark want them to do??? They win that don’t make him happy they can only play there schedule so don’t use that excuse
They don’t use there injuries as an excuse
Nobody cares what you suspect
Nobody suspects the Spanish Inquisition.
Oh Joe great MPFC reference
Surprise is our main weapon…fear and surprise…oh, no, wait, our 2 weapons are surprise and fear… and ruthlessness…wait, no, our 3 weapons are…
The easiest pick is the Marlins. Everybody saw them crashing back to Earth after the big negative run diff last year and the ridiculous good luck in one-run games. They’ve just crashed a little harder than even I anticipated.
The toughest pick is the Astros. Are they really this bad? The run diff says yes but then everybody looks at all the division titles. I think they’ll come around but the division might be tough for them this year.
As someone that watches them a lot. I don’t think they are the 2019 team, but they are just as good as last year. When the injury issues go away and some timely hitting happens they will be back to leading the division. Abreu might have to go though. Currently they are playing with 24 outs. It’s very sad to see.
Jung Hoo Lee is far from “subpar”.
He’s hitting.270, not striking out much, and making consistent hard contact. His adjustment to the MLB is looking good.
His defensive game looks great too.
Yeah. I bristled. Seems to be going so much better than a 87 wRC+ indicates.
Exactly why I’ve never been a stathead.
My eyes see a guy in a 10 game hitting streak BEFORE he even learns the opposing pitchers. Dude is legit !
His issue is he hits a lot of pull grounders. He does have very strong bat to ball skills. If he hits 250-280 with a small walk rate due to his bat to balls skills he will likely grade out as a below avg player when looking at non batting avg stats.
Everyone know what dark cares!! It’s what scouts look at!! Every scout cares what dark says!!!
You are just a bit obsessed with Darkside, and it is kinda disturbing.
It ain’t easy being this popular!
We going to do an article about hot and cold starts and we ain’t even gonna mention the team with the worst record in baseball. White Sox are down but d***m that’s cold.
Sucks to suck 😛
The White Sox are just living down to expectations. This is about teams that are better/worse than expected.
Yeah, by adding them to the poll for slow starts would be low-hanging fruit. I don’t think MLBTR was looking for something close to unanimity.
Your point doesn’t make sense. If they are left off the article because they sucked last year and only expected to be worse than why is Baltimore on here for being good when they won 100 games last and have the #1 prospect in baseball?
It’s not about what they did last season. The WSox were left off the poll, not because they sucked last year, but because of the expectations for this year. Those expectations are that the WSox will be one of the 3 worse teams in MLB and will flirt with a 100 loss season.
The expectations for the Orioles is that they will regress. Most teams that win 103 games do regress the next season. 103 wins suggests a fair amount of luck with things like injuries. The O’s are on pace to win 105-106 games this season. Adding them to the poll is justified since the question is whether they will continue to play that well, and duplicate the success of last season
Sure.
It will come as no shock that I believe the Reds pitching will be their downfall, as in not making the playoffs once more and wasting another year of this young team’s window.
It already looks like the Mondas, Pagan, and Candelario signings were a waste of money that could have been collectively spent on an actual ace.
Too many pitches from starters that can’t last, and an overworked and ineffective bullpen are the way it is now and looks to be continuing throughout the season.
What is concerning is the lack of offense recently from a good offensive club. If they can’t outscore folks, they are in further trouble.
So surprised the Reds didnt make more additions to their pitching this past offseason. As a Brewers fan, I’m happy about that. The Reds are very entertaining and young. This years trade deadline and certainly next offseason I would expect to be more active for them.
No mention of the Mets dominant pen?
Pre-season projections had all pitchers aside from Diaz with an ERA in the 4s.
Unfortunately, projections take an average of all possible outcomes and don’t exactly account for some pitchers underperforming and getting moved and some pitchers over performing and sticking.
Garrett and Smith have been tremendous. There’s reason to believe they’re for real, as Garrett added a nasty splitter and smith returned to his very successful, unconventional, 2022 mechanics.
Otto, raley, and diekman have all been at their 90% outcomes. Honesty, in Diaz not being quite as dominant as 2022 he’s the only one “underperforming.” SRF has been quite good recently too, so he will be back. Kranick and crick also possibilities on their return from injury.
To this point, they’ve been one of the best.
Giants seem like they should be better than they are, but probably not that much better than a .500 team. I expect Chapman and Soler to do a lot more damage with the bat. Jung Hoo Lee isn’t going to be much more than a slapsy leadoff guy, but they must have known that when they signed him. Webb has underperformed, while Hicks has overperformed; I expect that to level out soon. The end looks nigh for Yaz and Slater. But there’s some minor leaguers that are making good progress. And so far, Patrick Bailey, who I thought was due for some serious regression, has looked pretty good.
Zaidi committed 400 Million this past off season and the Giants are still a huge pile of Asss
27chumpy, As usual you’ve provided the most superficial take, lacking any relevant insight into the Giants, MLB, or even baseball in general. The Giants have the 10th highest payroll. The Yankees have the second highest. What are you going to say when the Yankees fail to win it all, like they do every year. Wait, I know. You’ll just disappear like you always do every season.
You’re wrong referring to Lee as being only slapsy. His exit velocity has been surprisingly good. He’s averaging a 91.5 exit velocity tying for 50th best in MLB with guys like Austin Riley, and only 0.2 MPH behind Bryce Harper. He has the most hard hit balls, quantified as 95+, on the team, tying him for 10th in MLB. Once he learns the pitchers he’s going to be exceptional.
True but a lot of lee’s hard hit balls seem to be pulled grounders. Which usually is an out or a single.
Statistically, most of his balls in play are up the middle, 40.8%, with slightly more pulled, 32.4% compared to the opposite field, 26.8%.
So far, he does tend to hit the ball on the ground, but the harder a ball is hit, the the higher the BA. What’s exceptionally good about Lee, is he puts the ball in play, and doesn’t strike out. According to Statcast his SO%, 10.5%, is currently the best in MLB.
Since he’s never seen any MLB pitcher before this season, what he’s done so far is very encouraging. Plus it’s early. The fact that Lee’s SLG is 39 points higher than Aaron Judge, 41 pints higher than Freddie Freeman, and 47 points higher than Corey Seager tells us that.
The fact that his profile as a good defensive CF, where even a slapsy hitter would be a plus, indicates to me that the Giants have found them selves a gem. And that so far, describing him as slapsy is not at all accurate so far.
The O’s having a 51% chance is exactly why basing anything on predictive measures is silly. Why any system would predict such a precipitous drop from defending ALE winners to a coin flip to make a WC is not reliable.
Moreover, I fear the Yankees hot start is more similar to their 2022 historical run – nice, but going to end. Their offense is much better, without a doubt. But, they still have a substantial uphill battle.
These metrics are always flawed because they tend to take old data into account too much. Any team that just made the PS after years out is always docked % on getting back to an extreme degree. Not that getting back is a given, but there is too much out of the control of metrics when you are factoring in old data points to heavily.
I agree. There odds should have been around 80% to start the year and around 90% now. The Orioles are definitely the team to beat in the Al this year.
I dont think they are, but i know most do. If they add another SP then i could see it. I think when degrom and scherzer are back texas is the favorite for me with yanks not far behind if they get anything from cole.
For the Yankees they touched upon older players/injury risk. But I think they’re a solid playoff contender outside of if something like many of them getting hurt happens. Of course they won’t keep up this pace.
The Orioles are always undervalued when good. All the projections tend to overshoot on teams with stars and undershoot on teams like the Orioles. PECOTA for instance significantly underguessed every year 2012-16, 22, 23, and they’ll very likely get over 24’s prediction pretty easily. Orioles face a hellish schedule in June so they will slow down some then.
Yankee clipper- there are so many valuable metrics in todays game of Baseball. I can lose track of time so easily when I’m doing deep dives on past and present players. That ‘side’ of the game is fascinating to me.
However – “Playoff Odds” are absolutely NOT that! Those are an absolute and complete waste of time. Esp in April!
Even Worse yet are the metrics found on the bottom right of any game that is televised by Apple +. When a batter is in the box at 0-0 in the lower corner they have calculated a (for example) 24% hit chance” depending who’s up. Or if my Mariners are playing it would flash a 96% chance of strikeout! ” their odds go up and down after every pitch thrown. Talk about utterly useless! It does my bleeding head in!
Can’t believe people actually thought the Cardinals would be good
Me neither. I don’t see any improvement from what they went into the season with last year.
Mo and Marmol continue to be their biggest albatross…
A pair of HoF’ers at the corners, lots of budding young hitters, and a division that probably can be won with a 87-75 record
Ans like the Brewers, potentially winning a bad division doesn’t mean anything.
Ludicrous statement. Its a significant achievement every year to win your division. If the Cardinals come out and win it, I promise you would celebrate it.
Royals are going to fade, especially when you take into consideration that 6 of their 12 wins are against the White Sox who are 3-15, 3 against the Astros who are 6-14
meanwhile the Guardians do not make the list??
Yeah, the Indians have been playing great.
The realest team is the Red Sox. They’re going to be mired in mediocrity for most of the year and end up right around .500 again.
You can’t predict the future. No matter if it’s wall street, sports or climate change. Anyone who says they can is selling something.
BTW, the O’s doing it without Bradish, Means or Bautista.
“You can’t predict the future. No matter if it’s wall street, sports or climate change. Anyone who says they can is selling something”
Utterly ridiculous statement. Incalculable wealth and man-hours are dedicated to creating data models for the exact purpose of calculating the probability of future events … in many various applications…. but “wall street, sports and climate change” in particular.
Anyone who says they can’t predict the future doesn’t understand statistics.
Nothing surprising about the Orioles at 12-6. They’re probably going to win a WS before the 2020s are up. Reminiscent of the Braves bringing up Acuna, Albies, Riley, and Swanson in 2017-19 and winning it all in ’21.
Orioles: According to both the Pythagorean Winning Percentage and fWAR, the Orioles are performing as anticipated, indicating that their current hot streak appears to be genuine.
Royals: While the Pythagorean Winning Percentage indicates they should have about 2 more wins, fWAR suggests only 1 less win than their actual count, leading to a discrepancy. Therefore, I lean towards this not being a real hot streak, and expect them to regress to their usual performance.
Yankees: Both evaluations show the Yankees are slightly overperforming. I anticipate a minor regression, but for now, their hot streak seems reasonably legitimate.
Brewers: Both metrics align with their current record, indicating that their hot streak is indeed real.
Mets: Like the Brewers, the Mets are performing as expected based on both evaluations, suggesting their hot streak is genuine.
Twins: While fWAR indicates they should have one more win, overall, they are performing as projected, so this doesn’t seem like a cold streak.
Astros: fWAR suggests the Astros are significantly underperforming, indicating they should have a better record. This points to a real cold streak, supported by the Pythagorean Winning Percentage indicating they should have two additional wins.
Marlins: Although both metrics suggest they should have a couple more wins, their performance aligns with expectations, so this isn’t a significant cold streak.
Mariners, Cardinals, Giants: All three teams are performing as expected, so their current records don’t reflect a cold streak.
Maybe I don’t understand your assessment of the Royals but it sounds like the stupidest thing I have ever heard. It sounds like you are saying you looked at two systems and both of them say the Royals should be about exactly where they are but the two vary slightly from one another and, therefore, you expect them to lose 106 games.
@Steve12345
What type of logic are you taking from that? I’m saying, the early hot streak doesn’t seem sustainable due to the discrepancy. I didn’t say they will lose 106 games. That’s not even what the article is about.
You said you expect them to regress to “their usual performance”. The season just started so I assumed you meant like last year’s record. I think they lost about 106 games last year. Regardless, the discrepancy seems to be 1.5 games between the two indicators. One slightly above their record and one slightly below. So, those indicators would say the should roughly maintain. I personally don’t think they will stay above .600 all year but I just don’t think they will collapse to .300. I think they will compete for a weak division and .550 might win it.
@Steve12345
I actually liked the Royals this season. They did some good offseason moves. I do expect them to compete for at least the WC and possibly the division.
Fair enough. I agree with that. I just don’t understand the language of “real hot streak” I guess. Like, is a “real hot streak” a bad thing because it’s just a hot streak and doesn’t indicate a good team. Or does “real hot streak” mean the team is really as good as their hot streak.
@Steve12345
I guess the hot/cold streak is bad wording. I guess they should have said, does it seem sustainable or not sustainable that they would perform in this manner. I don’t think the Mets are going to be a 100 win team, but I think they’re about a .500 team, which is what their record shows. Will they win more some days and less other days? Sure, but they’ll hover around .500 for the season.
Nobody had the royals making the World Series back to back years in 14 & 15, nobody had the Nats making the playoffs let alone winning the WS in 19, and nobody gave two craps about the rangers last year. My point is that the numbers you listed are irrelevant and pointless. They gave the orioles a 50% chance at making the playoffs again after winning 100 games last year, they gave NY a 70% chance after having their worst season in almost 30 years. Maybe the Yankees will win the east, but that fWAR and Sabermetrics is a terrible way to go by who’s the best team.
@Baseball_dude
Ultimately, the O’s, Yankees, Dodgers & Braves are not going to be in the WS this year. They are built for full season performance not short-term elimination games. I’m not using fWAR to determine who is the best team. I was giving my perspective on who is off to a sustainable hot streak and who is not.
Metrics are good indicators of future performance but cannot and never will be able to take in to consideration the health of the human mind and it’s ability to blend in with others (team chemistry) and physical health.
IMO, metrics/stats/analytics could not predict that the Orioles would win 101 games last year because it could not identify healthy team chemistry … and outside of Mullins and Wells, they stayed pretty much injury free. SP is already experiencing injuries this year. I’m thinking it’s gonna be a challenge to repeat last year’s level of success because of it.
Yankees are for real, Mets are not. Twins will get better and Royals will crash. Orioles are real and so are Brewers. Astros will come around and so will Mariners. Marlins stink like dead fish, Giants will get better but cannot beat LA(unfortunately). Cardinals are hard to figure. I would have bet dollars to dimes that there was no way that they would have two bad seasons in a row. Nobody mentioned the Braves, they can hit but starting pitching is weak. Phillies will win the division (unfortunately)
Cards extended Marmol and are aging and didnt more the needle for their poor performing team last year. This year isnt a surprise.
Why were the orioles given a 51% chance to make the playoffs after winning over 100 games last year?, but the Yankees were given a 71% chance after playing like crap last year? I’m not saying the Yankees won’t win the east (they have a great chance) but seriously.. what’s wrong with these people and their backwards no sense predictions?
Probably because making Yankees fans happy generates more clicks than making Orioles fans happy.
If the World Series was determined by who’s grossly overpaid/underachievers, the New York Yankees would be the champs every. single. year.
When it counts in October, they’ll be somewhere they’ve become very familiar with the last 20 or so years…. on the couch.
Not only does Holliday looked over matched at the plate, he actually looks like a scared 16 year old boy. He will never be a decent player like his dad. Matt looks embarrassed when his son plays and the Ripkens gave up #7 for this !!! He needs to return to AAA. Move Gunner to 2B and call up Mayo for 3B.
A week ago I was reading hundreds of posts criticizing the Orioles management for manipulating his service time. Turns out maybe a little more time in the minors is useful. But, I wouldn’t say he will never be a decent player based on one week. He may be a hall o’ famer someday.
What I see especially in the NL are a lot of mid teams. Braves and dodgers are the clear best two teams. Followed by Phillies who I think are the best next team but likely won’t run away with a wild card.
After those three teams pretty much every other team except the marlins (injuries have destroyed them) and the Rockies look like teams that could be win 84 games or 77 games. I believe we are going to see a lot of teams hang around the .500 mark for most of the year. Lots of good but not very good teams in the NL.
The orioles being 50/50 to make the playoffs pre-season is just disrespectful to the game itself. Side note, royals look legit. Should be a fun series this weekend
@2012orioles
Where do you see 50%? FG has 76.5% chance of making the playoffs right now. Cubs, Jays & Mariners are around 50%. The Indians are top of their division and they only have a 40% change of making the playoffs.
Fangraphs had them at 50% to start the season. That’s why fangraphs is a joke. 76% chance is a joke too. They beat the Yankees by 20 games last year and added an ace. Their minors is loaded with call ups. The odds of them not making the playoffs is in the single digits.
@Mets6986??
Ultimately, even if they make the playoffs, they’re probably better getting in as a WC spot as the division winners never seem to make it since the new revised playoff system. Sure, you can win 162 games but get knocked out of the first round.
With the Sox unlikely to go anywhere this year, I’m rooting for the O’s “hot start” to be the real deal. And as always, I’m hoping to see Yankee Stadium collapse into a field of rubble (when nobody’s there, of course).
The Orioles hot start is real. Just so much young talent on the roster and once Means and Bradish are back they should only get better.
I think the Royals could be real too. A better pitching staff, more consistent offense and a division that is not very good could all work in their favor.
On the cold side unfortunately the Marlins are for real. Firing Ng after making the postseason was a head scratcher. Losing Alcantara at the end of last season and replacing Soler’s bat have hurt the team almost as much as the injuries to Cabrera and Perez
Everyone’s here except the M’s which the worm has started to turn. The pitching is getting better all the time ⌚ the hitting is kindof a pain in the ass. Julio is for now a free swinger chasing too much. Garver, Raley not providing much except for too many strikeouts, Crawford has not done much better. This is yet to get better. The question later might become , how much better? Will give us a clearer reading on what we can expect from them.
In the news talk of trading Gilbert, hypothetical at this point, perhaps something on the horizon?
My theory on the M’s “cold start” (for the past 2 seasons actually,) has a lot to do with the fact that half their lineup is new. Coming to a new Org to be “the guy” heaps a ton of pressure on players. It’s human nature to press, to be over eager especially when you’re brought in to make an impact in the middle of a lineup like Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco have.
Both have scuffled to start their SEA careers but they haven’t suddenly lost their abilities, despite looking lost at the plate at times! If that makes sense! Some of those SP’s “we faced” in the first week-10 days were absolutely on top of their game, I’m not sure Garver and Polanco have ever seen that many offspeed pitches! That is how you contain the SEA lineup.
Polanco has already started to cut back on the K/0’s and he leads the Club in BB’s. He’s not pulling up trees but 4R’s 2 HRs and 5 RBI’s over the last 4g is helping him trend in the right direction. Hopefully Garver’s 1st HR vs CIN on Wed will release the floodgates. He could certainly teach Julio a thing or two about pitch recognition and taking a BB. If they remain healthy I think both Garver and Polo will play big roles in the hunt for the AL West…..this Div is wide open and I like SEA’s chances because that Mariners Pitching is SOOOO good. Yesterday’s sweep of CIN was the Rotations 7th straight Quality Start. I’m not worried about a so called “cold start” – not when we have two young SP’s who have legitimate (early) chances of being in a AL Cy Young Race! Gilbert and Miller look phenomenal.
Logan Gilbert is going nowhere. He will be extended in SEA. The Owners might be cheap but they know where their “bread is buttered” – they know they have a Pitchers Park.
Hi, yeah…didn’t even mention the Pirates. I guess that means the author thinks they’re for real.
I think it would be good to separate the hot and cold start teams into two sections. It’s hard to tell which team belongs in which group without counting.
No links for either poll.
No White Sox?!?
The White Sox terrible start isn’t a surprise. And the injuries have pushed it to the point of being silly.
Giants aren’t coming back, they are done
mets have been impressive since 0-5 start
pitchers and hitters overachieving like crazy tho. all those guys are on 1 yr deals, severino, manea, houser, bader, tyrone. a bunch of veteran has-beens with something to prove. its a group of scrappy players desperate to avoid being sent down to AAA or worse, being forced to settle for the diablo de los rojas in the mexican league. eventually this assembly of garbage will come back to earth. i expect this mets tm to finish with around 75-77 wins. if they’re smart, they’ll fire this rookie nobody manager & hire schumacher who was so pissed that marlins fired their GM he asked to be released from his option next year. dude can coach. bring him to queens. bring up the talented prospects. who knows, mets might even win 80 games next year.
If the Mets are smart they’ll do nothing you said and be fine
Ye bec mets have been “fine” by not listening to common sense for the past 40 yrs
You keep bringing up the past like bro move on.
Marlins position players and starting pitchers say the slow start is not for real. The Marlins bullpen says it is.
I would agree Banned. I wonder how long before the Marlins trade Arreaz?
I think they try to extend him this offseason. He’s not touchable at this point, unless someone offers something that the Marlins absolutely can’t refuse.
Mike Hill and Jeffrey Loria are no longer with the team.