In this week's mailbag, I get into a possible extension for Tarik Skubal, potential fits for Ivan Herrera and Alex Verdugo, and many more trade-related questions.
Kevin asks:
Is a short term extension possible? Tarik will make about 30 million in arbitration for 2025 and 2026. What if Detroit offered him 100 million for 2025/26/27 and 28 ? Slight two year delay for Tarik but money in hand and manageable amount for Detroit. Thoughts?
Skubal, perhaps the current favorite for the AL Cy Young award, turns 28 in November. As Kevin said, the lefty has two more years of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency in advance of his age-30 season.
Skubal is a Boras client, but there is reason for him to consider locking in a big payday now. His 2022 season ended on August 1 due to something alternately called forearm inflammation and then just "left arm fatigue." He went on to have flexor tendon surgery on August 17 of that year. As a result, Skubal's 2023 debut was on July 4th, and he returned a different pitcher. He averaged 94.29 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball in 2022, and after he returned from surgery the following year, that was up to 95.81. He started throwing his four-seamer more and his strikeout rate leapt forward, turning Skubal into one of the game's best pitchers.
This year, Skubal's fastball velocity has climbed further still, up to 96.99 mph. Since June 19th, he's at 97.47. In very Jacob deGrom-like fashion, Skubal is now throwing a full three mph faster than he was before his surgery.
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Been a concern of mine. If the league continues to ‘alter’ and adjust the focal point of the game in the ball itself, how can you trust MLB?
Why bother being a fan of a game that is rigged when MLB openly admits to several balls in play over the last few years.
MLB claimed in 2020 and 2021 to using different balls due to shortages.
Then there are different balls in the All-Star games as well as playoffs.
Differing results from multiple teams this year in the same game. One team out hits another and the data supports that team as a whole having a greater percentage of hard hit balls.
MLB simply put, rigs games.
Addendum to clarify. In the same game there are glaring disparities.
Teams blow out other teams and the data from that game reflects the use of different balls for different teams in the same game.
The ‘hard hit’ stat is a dead give away to multiple types of balls in play in the same game.
One team crushes the ball and it dies at the track. The other team hits the ball and it flies out.
If mlb rigs games then why was there the astros cheating scandal?
Why cheat in a game if the game is already predetermined? Unless the teams themselves don’t know the game is rigged then the cheating would never happened. MLB wouldn’t plant the scandal because that made the entire league look bad
If the league itself knows the outcome of each game then that causes a huge problem because they could control the outcomes of bets on the games, this is why the WWE can’t allow betting
Maybe look at players as “variables” not aware of a pre-determined outcome.
Then player’s motivation becomes their own wellbeing as far as individual stats are concerned.
Also if players are aware there is manipulation and coercion occurring they may not know to what extent.
That is when players will still play for the outside shot that despite all the shenanigans their team may have a chance.
He should have stated “trying to rig”.
towinagain personally I’m in favor of a deadened ball. It’s awesome to watch Aaron Judge mash 50 homers a year but it’s a joke to see Gleyber Torres hit 38. But some transparency on MLB’s part would be a welcome change.
100% agree! Power is a fun part of the game but definitely overkill
The Tigers aren’t trading for Jazz Chisolm. He hasn’t played any SS in three years because his defense was terrible. They moved him to 2B and then OF. That’s also the story of Wenceel Perez who is under team control for 6 more seasons.
They’ll give Jace Jung a shot at 3B next season, but still need a SS. Colt Keith might have to move to OF or 1B to make room for Hao-Yu Lee, but I don’t see Jazz Chisolm adequately addressing the Tigers needs. Save Torkelbust and Manning for trades that might help with their pressing needs.
“Torkelbust”…ouch. yeah the top of that 2020 draft is looking abyssmal right about now.
I don’t think the Tigers are trading for Jazz.
But he got a look of 278 innings at SS at age 23. I don’t see why he should be closed off from SS permanently, especially if the bar is being better than Javy Baez.
Well for one Javy Baez is worlds better than Chisolm defensively at SS, even as his range has regressed some.
The Tigers already have a whole boatload of prospects that were “SS” coming up or pre-draft. It’s like their entire positional prospect report save for Max Clark
OP is right in that Chisolm is just an older more expensive version of players they already have in Wencel and soon McGonigal, Lee, etc
I’ll be disappointed if Ivan Herrera gets traded to Tampa Bay. You already know how that story goes. The Rays turn Herrera into a perennial All-Star and the Cardinals get a pitcher who immediately needs TJ surgery.
The Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers, and Cubs don’t really make sense.
The Marlins are the team that would make the most sense to me as a trade partner.
Personally, I don’t want the Cardinals to trade Herrera.
I don’t know what Tampa has that we would want.
I agree the Marlins are the best trade partner for Herrera. That’s who needs him the most and I think there is a deal to be made with them.
I think we have to trade Herrera. Why keep him? He’s worth more to someone else because someone else would let him play more. We have Pages then Crooks and then Bernal coming too. Catcher is the strength of the Cardinals system and we just don’t need allow them. Could trade Crooks but I wouldn’t he’s a lefty and I think he’s better than Herrera long term.
Catcher is a very difficult position to project. I’ll take the guy we have over the guy we hope we might have. Herrera works as the primary catcher. Contreras as the primary DH. There plenty of opportunity for playing time for both guys, especially going forward. With Goldy leaving after this year, Burly looks like the heir apparent at 1B. That leaves plenty of DH at bats available since we don’t really know what’s going to happen with Walker.
We have Contreras. You could argue we shouldn’t have signed him but we did and he’s been great. Playing Conteras at DH is not a good way to maximize his talents.
I also think Goldschmidt is coming back. Walker yeah who knows I don’t think we will count on him for 2025.
Herrera is worth more to someone else. That’s not a guarantee that a deal makes sense but it’s a great head start.
I believe playing Contreras at DH is the perfect way to maximize his talents. Hopefully it will help him avoid the physical drop off Arenado has experienced. I agree that Contreras has been a great hitter. I was opposed to the signing, but at this point we need him. So in a way it worked out IF he keeps hitting through the life of the contract. If he turns into a .260 singles hitter like Arenado it will be just one more bad contract we have wait out.
I can’t think of one reason to bring Goldy back.
Playing a catcher at DH is not a good way to maximize his value to the team. And keep in mind if we trade Herrera we still have Crooks and Bernal coming in what appears to be mid 2025 and mid 2026. So we have 2 more chances to put Contreras at DH down the road when perhaps it makes more sense than it does now.
Let’s say Goldschmidt wants to keep playing. Why wouldn’t we sign him if it was for a reasonable price? I think he signs with either us or the Diamondbacks. I am not saying we should sign him or that I want to sign him even. But I think we will.
Marlins definitely need catching, but I dismissed them here because the person was asking about acquiring starting pitching, and I don’t know that they have much to offer with Luzardo out.
Why don’t the Blue Jays or Rangers make sense?
Yeah I like the fit for Herrera to the Marlins but Luzardo was the guy. With him being out of the picture I am not sure there is a deal to be made there.
Rangers perhaps could use Herrera. They had Garver so they could be looking to go back to a quality catching tandem. And the Jays I believe are the next best fit because Jansen is a soon to be free agent and odds are he’s dealt by the deadline. Kikuchi would be of interest to the Cardinals I believe. Beyond that not sure.
That makes sense in regards to the Marlins. Though I would probably have some level of interest in their other starters.
I guess I’m not convinced the Rangers will sell.
The Blue Jays will sell but it wouldn’t be great optics to trade Moreno, then turn around and start shopping for a new young catcher. I expect that the current front office will let the next front office deal with the catching situation.
The Blue Jays are a perfect example of why I don’t want the Cards to trade Herrera.
The Jays had to pick between 2 young catchers and at the moment it looks like they picked the wrong one. The Cardinals are paying Contreras a large sum of money. He’s playing regularly no matter what and not the greatest trade candidate. We can’t really choose we are basically stuck with Contreras so Herrera can either be the backup or be dealt. And again we got Crooks coming he’s having an excellent season in AA he’s about a year away. And Bernal again good season at high A so he’s 2 years away. Even if Herrera goes elsewhere and plays well it won’t really matter.
I don’t like the idea of trading Herrera either. I would take a .285-.290 hitter with okay defense than a .195 catcher with great defense. Bases loaded bottom of the ninth with the playoff game on the line? I would rather have Herrera at the plate than Pages.
I think Yadi can work with Herrera more and really help his defense improve to above average.
Why would Pages be playing in a playoff game?
He wouldn’t. And neither would Herrera if he was still around.
One could possibly be catching while Contreras is the DH.