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Nathan Eovaldi Approaching Vesting Player Option Threshold

By Steve Adams | September 16, 2024 at 10:22am CDT

During the 2022-23 offseason, then-free-agent righty Nathan Eovaldi inked a two-year, $34MM contract with the Rangers. The contract contained a provision for a vesting player option that would give Eovaldi say over his fate for the 2025 season, provided he stayed largely healthy over the course of the contract’s first two seasons. With a combined 300 innings pitched between 2023-24, Eovaldi gains a player option valued at $20MM for the 2025 campaign. The veteran right-hander’s most recent start brought him to 296 innings between the two seasons combined. He’ll trigger the vesting player option if he completes at least four innings in his next start, which is slated to come tomorrow when the Rangers host the Blue Jays. All but two of Eovaldi’s 26 starts this year have lasted at least four innings.

There’s a strong likelihood that Eovaldi will unlock that option tomorrow versus Toronto. It should be emphasized that he’s not locking himself into that $20MM salary for the 2025 season, however, but rather gaining the choice to exercise that $20MM option or turn it down in favor of a return to the open market. There’s perhaps some extra incentive for Eovaldi to consider the player option, as a Texas native — he was born and raised in the Houston area — but he should also be able to top that $20MM guarantee in free agency.

Eovaldi, 35 in September, has been a clearly above-average starter in each of his two seasons in Texas. He’s started a combined 51 games and pitched to a 3.65 ERA across his 296 frames with the Rangers, fanning 23.7% of his opponents against a 7% walk rate. Both marks are better than the league average. He’s also upped his ground-ball rate considerably thanks to an uptick in his splitter usage. A hearty 49.8% of the batted balls against Eovaldi have been grounders; he posted a 43.9% grounder rate in his final two seasons with the Red Sox from 2021-22.

Barring a late injury that throws his 2025 outlook into question, there’s a good case to decline that $20MM player option. Recent examples of multi-year free-agent deals for pitchers beginning in their age-35 season aren’t exactly plentiful, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, but there are a few such cases that underscore the earning power he’ll have.

Back in the 2018-19 offseason, for instance, both J.A. Happ ($34MM) and Charlie Morton ($30MM) inked two-year deal in free agency. Happ had nearly identical numbers in his two prior seasons to those of Eovaldi at present, and he was a year older at the time (to say nothing of the fact that the price of pitching has increased since 2018). Eovaldi also has a steadier track record than he had at the time. Morton, meanwhile, had only just broken out as a high-end starter in his prior two-year run with the Astros — doing so with numbers that resemble Eovaldi’s current Rangers run. Kenta Maeda signed for two years and $24MM with the Tigers just last offseason and did as a 36-year-old coming off a lesser platform showing. Eovaldi clearly has greater earning power than Maeda had.

Generally speaking, few pitchers remain this effective into their mid-30s and return to the market at this time. Many top-tier starters ink contracts of five, six or seven years in length when they reach free agency around age 30 or 31. “Second-tier” free agent starters, as Eovaldi arguably was in his past couple trips to the market, often suffer injuries or begin to lose effectiveness as Father Time chases them down. However, Eovaldi remains a clear playoff-caliber starter, averaging 95.5 mph on his heater and logging better-than-average strikeout, walk and grounder rates while averaging nearly six innings per start.

We’ve certainly seen pitchers in their age-35 seasons or older command contracts worth $20MM or more in terms of annual value, but they’re typically on one-year deals or the type of anomalous contracts reserved for the sport’s elite arms. Justin Verlander has signed extensions and free-agent deals north of this rate in the latter stages of his career, but he’s a future Hall of Famer and three-time Cy Young winner. Max Scherzer’s record-setting three-year, $130MM deal spanned his age-37 through age-39 seasons, but like Verlander he’s a Cooperstown-bound, multi-time Cy Young winner. Eovaldi’s teammate Jacob deGrom signed the most eye-opening of these deals when he landed five years and $185MM from the Rangers, but a healthy deGrom is arguably the best pitcher on the planet.

Eovaldi isn’t going to command that type of premium annual value, but he has a clear case for another multi-year deal and could take aim at a contract paying him an annual salary in the $20MM vicinity (give or take a couple million). He’s an unusual case when it comes to getting a third bite at the free-agent apple in his mid-30s at a time when he hasn’t lost much, if any, of his effectiveness. Recent mid-rotation starters who could return to the market in their own mid-30s (e.g. Jameson Taillon, Michael Wacha, Marcus Stroman, Jon Gray) will surely be watching closely to see how the market treats Eovaldi this offseason.

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MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers Nathan Eovaldi

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26 Comments

  1. Brick House Coffee Tables Inc

    10 months ago

    Eovaldi would be a good fit on the Cubs on a two year deal with some sort of third year option, especially given Steele’s recent injury.

    He would slot in with Imanaga and Steele and give them four veteran starters to go with Jordan Wicks and hopefully eventually Cade Horton, and let them move Javier Assad back to the 6th starter and multi-inning reliever role where he can still pitch 110-125 innings.

    1
    Reply
    • Blackpink in the area

      10 months ago

      The Cubs need to make trades. Their top 6 prospects are all projected to be ready in 2025. They have more players than places for them to play. And I don’t think they are gonna be spending a bunch either. Trades are what make sense for them.

      1
      Reply
  2. Old York

    10 months ago

    Time to scratch his start due to some mysterious pain.

    Reply
    • Blackpink in the area

      10 months ago

      Really I don’t think the Rangers care much one way or the other. Similar pitcher to Charlie Morton and that’s pretty much what Morton got in 2024.

      Reply
    • rememberthecoop

      10 months ago

      Nah, that’s not how CY rolls. Plus, it won’t matter – Eovaldi is going to decline that option anyway in search of a multi-year deal.

      2
      Reply
      • deweybelongsinthehall

        10 months ago

        Agreed. While he’s from Texas, he’s earned the right to use this option as leverage. I expect he’ll stay in Texas with no state income taxes but he could jump to Houston. That said, he never wanted to leave Boston so a return there is also possible. He’ll have in my view many suitors and I’m actually seeing. three year, $46m deal in Texas or a $50m deal in Boston or elsewhere (with state taxes). Could even be a higher two year average with a third as another option.

        Reply
        • LordD99

          10 months ago

          I believe his AAV will eclipse $20MM.

          Reply
        • A'sfaninLondonUK

          10 months ago

          @LordD99

          Two TJ surgeries. Not sure I’d commit to more than a year on year deal. But I’m English, live in London & know b*gger all.

          I’d be encouraging him to stay living locally, and offering similarly vesting options….

          Reply
        • mlb fan

          10 months ago

          “AAV will eclipse $20M”…I don’t know if his AAV will eclipse $20M(perhaps on a 1 yr deal), but his total guarantee(the most important number)has a decent chance on a multi year deal.

          1
          Reply
        • Ma4170

          10 months ago

          I see more a 2/32 type deal at his age and injury history

          Reply
  3. gilleb

    10 months ago

    Bochy has praised Eovaldi vigorously and considers his veteran leadership a vital influence on the younger half of the Rangers’ pitching staff.
    They will easily offer him a two-year deal for around $45 mil with a 3rd year option.
    Eovaldi doesn’t seem like a guy who would leave his home state for a couple of million dollars.

    4
    Reply
    • HalosHeavenJJ

      10 months ago

      Agreed. Plus the lack of a state income tax would means a couple million elsewhere isn’t as much take home pay anyway.

      1
      Reply
    • The Ranger Fan

      10 months ago

      I hope you’re right

      Reply
  4. RunDMC

    10 months ago

    Eovaldi really is impressive, as a 2-time TJS recipient — Walker Buehler should take note.

    Reply
    • vtadave

      10 months ago

      He did last night

      Reply
  5. whyhayzee

    10 months ago

    I wish the Red Sox had kept him, he’s a horse. That said, he won a ring with the Rangers so that’s good for baseball. That’s right boys and girls, good for baseball. And if he goes to the Astros? Good for the Astros. Maybe help win them another ring. And that’s good for baseball. Shuts up the trash can idiots. Which is good for baseball. All in all, good for baseball. Hooray.

    1
    Reply
  6. rememberthecoop

    10 months ago

    Not only is he still effective, his leadership and track record in the postseason should easily garner him a multi-year offer from a contending team. That said, I don’t think he leaves Texas.

    Reply
  7. Acoss1331

    10 months ago

    Eovaldi is retiring as a Ranger, he’s not going anywhere.

    Reply
    • LordD99

      10 months ago

      Cohen will offer him a 2/87 deal.

      Reply
    • The Ranger Fan

      10 months ago

      Texas has 11 free agents this winter and it’s gonna be interesting to see who stays

      Reply
      • gilleb

        10 months ago

        Texas free agents:
        Scherzer — Wish him well. Good chance he retires.
        Eovaldi — Offer 2/$45 with a 3rd year option
        Heaney — No offer, but he was a solid contributor.
        Robertson — Offer 1 yr deal ($11-12 mil?) with option
        Yates — Bochy thinks he’s a must-sign. I have no idea how much.
        Leclerc — Gone…thank goodness
        Kelly — They’ll make him an offer. He may be next year’s starting catcher.
        Urena — They’d like him back
        Jankowski — Wouldn’t be surprised if he retires and is on coaching staff next season

        Trading Gray would save $13 mil

        Reply
    • The Ranger Fan

      10 months ago

      Warden of the north (acoss13) s…
      Let’s hope he stays a Ranger

      1
      Reply
  8. Acoss1331

    10 months ago

    LordD99,

    He is over 35 years old, so you’re right Cohen might want to snag him!

    Reply
  9. Hey now

    10 months ago

    2 years $46-$50 million with a similar 3rd option would seem right

    1
    Reply
  10. fenwayfrank

    10 months ago

    He was awesome for the Redsox, especially that long relief outing in the 2018 World Series. I’d take him on my team any day.

    Reply
  11. MLBTR needs to hire editors

    10 months ago

    “Meanwhile” needs to start the sentence. As a conjunctive adverb, it can’t come in the middle between commas.

    Reply

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