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Nathan Eovaldi

Red Sox To Sign Corey Kluber To One-Year Deal

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3:55pm: The deal can max out at $27MM over the two years, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. In 2023, Kluber will get an extra $500K for starting 20 games, then $750K for getting to 25 and 30 starts. Those same figures will also be added to the value of the $11MM option, meaning it will escalate up to $11.5MM at 20 starts, $12.25MM at 25 and $13MM at 30. If the option is picked up, those same bonuses would be available to Kluber for 2024.

12:50pm: The Red Sox and right-hander Corey Kluber are in agreement on a one-year deal plus a club option for 2024. Kluber will be guaranteed $10MM on the deal, though there’s also $2MM in unknown incentives that could increase the eventual payday for the Wasserman client. The 2024 option is valued at $11MM, though with escalators and incentives for that season as well.

Kluber, 37 in April, was once one of the best pitchers alive, winning Cy Young awards in both 2014 and 2017. Those were part of a six-year run of excellence with Cleveland from 2013 to 2018, with Kluber posting a 2.96 ERA over that time along with a 27.7% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.9% ground ball rate.

Injuries limited him to just eight total starts over 2019 and 2020, with a forearm fracture and teres muscle tear the primary culprits. He’s since been ramping back up, but as more of a back-end hurler instead of the ace he was with Cleveland, signing one-year deals with the Yankees and Rays for the past two seasons. He made 16 starts in 2021 with a 3.83 ERA and 31 starts in 2022 with a 4.34 ERA. His 34.7% strikeout rate in 2017 was down to 24% last year and 20.2% in 2022. He did still avoid the free passes, something he’s long excelled at, with his 3% walk rate this year coming in a few ticks below his career 5.4% mark.

Statcast pegged Kluber’s average four-seam fastball velocity at 88.9 mph in 2022, a significant drop from prior to the injuries, when he was in the 93-95 range. Nonetheless, he still found ways to generally be effective, as his average exit velocity was in the 80th percentile, his hard hit rate in the 75th and his barrel rate 57th. Given his age and checkered health history, MLBTR predicted him for a one-year, $12MM deal, with Kluber coming in just under that, though the incentives could potentially make up the difference.

For the Sox, adding another starting pitcher makes a lot of sense given the uncertainty with their current options. Nick Pivetta is probably the only solid member of their group right now, as Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock are penciled into two spots, though they are young and only have 20 MLB starts between them. Kluber is a bit of a question mark himself, but adding him into the picture still reduces the likelihood that the club will have to rely upon depth options like Connor Seabold or Josh Winckowski throughout the year.

Boston had also been connected to various other starters throughout the offseason, including Zach Eflin, Carlos Rodón, Kodai Senga, Andrew Heaney, Seth Lugo, Tyler Anderson, Rich Hill and Nathan Eovaldi. Those players have all since found new clubs, with Eovaldi signing a two-year deal with the Rangers yesterday. Chad Jennings of the Athletic reports that the Red Sox offered Eovaldi a three-year deal earlier this month, though the guarantee on that offer isn’t known. Regardless, it seems that Eovaldi spurned it in favor of the offer from Texas and Boston then pivoted to Kluber.

Kluber had previously been connected to the Angels and Cubs, though the latter’s interest was prior to signing Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. If the Angels are still looking for rotation upgrades, some of the remaining free agents include Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto and Zack Greinke.

This deal brings the Red Sox payroll up to $186MM and their competitive balance tax figure to $212MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. That should leave them room for further additions if they so choose, as they’ve run a payroll as high as $236MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and they’re still more than $20MM shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Kluber and the Red Sox were in agreement on a one-year deal plus a club option. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported the $10MM guarantee and later provided some details on the incentives. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the $11MM figure for the option and that the deal contained incentives.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

Rangers Sign Nathan Eovaldi

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The Rangers announced another rotation addition, signing Nathan Eovaldi to a two-year deal with a vesting/player option for the 2025 campaign. The ACES client will be paid a $2MM signing bonus followed by $16MM salaries in each of the next two seasons. The option — which is valued at $20MM — would kick in as a player option if Eovaldi throws 300 combined innings from 2023-24. It’d also be triggered if the righty finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting in 2024 or finishes in the top seven that year and qualifies for the All-Star team. Eovaldi also has limited no-trade protection and innings-based incentives that could allow him to make as much as $63MM over the next three seasons.

Eovaldi has spent the past four-plus seasons with the Red Sox. Boston first acquired the righty from the Rays at the 2018 trade deadline, adding the impending free agent for their playoff push. Eovaldi was excellent in 12 regular season appearances, then added 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball in the postseason. At year’s end, Boston rewarded him for his finish with a four-year, $68MM free agent deal.

That contract looked shaky in year one, as Eovaldi posted an ERA just south of 6.00 in 2019 — a season in which he missed a notable chunk of action due to loose bodies in his throwing elbow. He righted the ship in the second season, though, posting a 3.72 ERA through nine outings during the shortened 2020 campaign.

Eovaldi followed up with maybe the best full season of his career in 2021. He made all 32 starts and posted a 3.75 ERA through 182 1/3 innings, striking out 25.5% of opponents against a 4.6% walk rate. That showing earned him his first career All-Star selection, as well as a fourth place finish in AL Cy Young balloting.

Unfortunately, injury issues cropped back up in 2022. Eovaldi missed chunks of what proved to be his final season in Boston due to a pair of injured list stints. He lost time between June and July with lower back inflammation and missed most of August and September thanks to inflammation in his throwing shoulder. The pair of injuries kept him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 frames, although his production on a rate basis was around his career norms.

Eovaldi managed a 3.87 ERA, striking out a slightly above-average 22.4% of batters faced. He walked a minuscule 4.3% of opponents while inducing grounders on 47% of batted balls he surrendered. Eovaldi isn’t the ace his 2021 fourth-place Cy Young finish might suggest, but he’s an above-average mid-rotation arm when healthy.

That production doesn’t come the way one might expect given Eovaldi’s power arsenal. He’s one of the game’s hardest throwers, averaging north of 97 MPH for much of his career. However, he’s never posted the elite strikeout rates typically associated with that velocity. Eovaldi’s best trait is instead his ability to pound the strike zone. He’s walked fewer than 5% of opponents in each of the past three years; his cumulative 4.4% walk percentage since the start of 2020 is second-lowest among the 120 pitchers with 200+ frames over that stretch (trailing only the 4.3% mark of Clayton Kershaw).

Eovaldi’s willingness to attack the zone has led to home run issues at times. He’s allowed homers at a higher than average clip in three of the last four years, including an elevated 1.73 homers per nine innings this past season. That’s the only red flag in Eovaldi’s recent performance track record but his health and age presumably gave some teams pause. He’ll be 33 in February, making him one of the older options in a deep class of mid-rotation starters available in free agency.

In addition to this year’s shoulder and back concerns, he has a history of elbow problems. Eovaldi underwent Tommy John surgery in high school, then missed the 2017 campaign after undergoing the procedure a second time in August 2016. He hasn’t required any IL stints due to elbow concerns since the aforementioned 2019 loose bodies. The back and shoulder injuries of this past season might be more acute problems, as Eovaldi’s average fastball velocity dipped from its customary 96-97 MPH range early in the season to roughly 94 MPH after his first IL stint.

Those injuries seemed to depress Eovaldi’s market. Chris Bassitt landed a three-year, $63MM deal headed into his age-34 campaign, while players like Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker secured strong four-year pacts despite less consistent performance track records than Eovaldi’s. Many of the free agent starters this offseason landed stronger than expected deals, but Eovaldi’s guarantee exactly matches MLBTR’s prediction from the outset of the offseason.

Eovaldi’s camp was also working against the qualifying offer. He turned down a QO from Boston at the start of the winter, tying any signing team to draft compensation. That was also the case for Bassitt but didn’t come into play for Walker and Taillon.

Texas hasn’t shown much concern about losing draft choices to add quality talent via free agency. They surrendered two picks to sign Corey Seager and Marcus Semien last winter, and they’ll do so again this offseason. The Rangers already forfeited a draft choice to sign Jacob deGrom to a five-year deal. That lessens the price they’ll have to pay in Eovaldi’s case. Texas surrendered their second-highest draft choice in 2023 and $500K in international signing bonus space to add deGrom. They’ll be docked another $500K in signing bonus room and their third-highest pick for Eovaldi.

After the Seager and Semien splashes to bolster the lineup last offseason, the Rangers have thoroughly overhauled their starting staff this winter. Texas acquired Jake Odorizzi from the Braves within the first few days. Left-hander Martín Pérez soon after accepted a qualifying offer, but that didn’t slow down Texas GM Chris Young or his front office. Since free agency opened, they’ve nabbed deGrom on the largest pitching contract of the offseason and brought in Andrew Heaney and Eovaldi on two-year guarantees.

Eovaldi adds another mid-rotation caliber starter to what now looks like a potentially fearsome Rangers rotation. deGrom headlines the staff, backed up by Jon Gray, Eovaldi, Pérez and Heaney. Odorizzi and Dane Dunning seem as if they’ll be pushed into depth roles, though there’s enough injury uncertainty with most of the top five it’s understandable Texas wouldn’t take its foot off the gas in pursuing outside help.

Owner Ray Davis and the front office haven’t shown many qualms about spending. Tacking on Eovaldi’s $16MM salary to next year’s books brings their projected payroll around $196MM, per Roster Resource. That’ll be a franchise record, easily topping the organization’s previous Opening Day high-water mark of $165MM. The deal’s $17MM average annual value brings their competitive balance tax number around $220MM, per Roster Resource, leaving them $13MM shy of next year’s $233MM base tax threshold.

The rotation hefty lifting looks to be complete, but Texas is known to be seeking ways to upgrade in the corner outfield. There’s room for a mid-tier free agent pickup there if the team prefers to stay under the CBT marker, though it’s also possible Davis is comfortable pushing past that threshold. The franchise’s boldness this winter has backed up their claims they plan to compete for a playoff spot in 2023, as both the Rangers and Angels have worked to try to close the gap with the Astros and Mariners in the AL West.

It’s another free agent departure for the Red Sox, who have seen a few notable players head elsewhere. Eovaldi and Xander Bogaerts each left after declining a qualifying offer. Boston receives draft compensation for both, though that’s a rather minimal benefit in their case. The Red Sox narrowly exceeded the CBT threshold in 2022, a decision that didn’t pay off when the club stumbled to a last-place finish down the stretch. They only receive bonus selections after the fourth round in next year’s draft as a result.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Rangers and Eovaldi were in agreement. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was first to report it was a two-year deal with an option, as well as the specific financial breakdown. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with the $34MM guarantee and the third-year option being a vesting/player provision, as well as the option specifics. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the no-trade protection and potential to vest the option based on Cy Young voting.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLBTR Poll: Nathan Eovaldi’s Landing Spot

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Aside from Carlos Correa, whose agreed-upon deal with the Mets is on hold as his camp and the team try to sort out renewed concerns regarding the shortstop’s physical, Nathan Eovaldi is the highest-ranked player from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents who has yet to put pen to paper. He’s also the only unsigned player who’d turned down a qualifying offer.

A few teams have been tied to the former All-Star starter. Last week, Rob Bradford of WEEI reported the Padres, Angels and an unnamed American League East club were in the mix. It doesn’t seem that team is the incumbent Red Sox, as Bradford has suggested on a few occasions this offseason Boston doesn’t appear especially motivated to retain the right-hander.

The Padres have already made a couple rotation moves, re-signing Nick Martinez and adding Seth Lugo on a two-year pact. They’re presently slated for the final two spots behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. There’s still a fair bit of downside in that group, with neither Martinez nor Lugo having much recent track record as an MLB starting pitcher. Both Martinez and Lugo have the chance to opt out of their deals after the 2023 season (albeit only if the Padres first decline a two-year, $32MM club option in Martinez’s case). Darvish and Snell are each ticketed for free agency after next year, leaving Musgrove potentially as the only long-term rotation building block. Headed into his age-33 season, Eovaldi’s not likely to receive a significantly long investment, but he figures to command multiple years and could help solidify the post-2023 rotation in San Diego.

Anaheim already has a solid front five. Shohei Ohtani is the ace, while Tyler Anderson was brought in on a three-year free agent deal to add to the middle of the staff. Patrick Sandoval, José Suarez and Reid Detmers round out the group, with all three young southpaws having pitched well down the stretch in 2022. The Angels have frequently relied upon a six-man staff in the Ohtani era, though. Even if they’re planning to go with a five-man group to maximize Ohtani’s workload next year, there’s merit to bringing in another stable arm who can add some injury insurance.

Aside from San Diego and Anaheim, reports of known suitors for Eovaldi have been few and far between. The Yankees and Blue Jays were linked to him earlier in the winter, but those clubs have since signed Carlos Rodón and Chris Bassitt, respectively. New York now seems likely to be out on Eovaldi entirely, with Rodón joining Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas in the starting five. Toronto could fit for a rotation pickup on paper given the uncertainty associated with José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi/Mitch White at the back end. Yet they’re already projected for a franchise-record payroll, and general manager Ross Atkins told reporters over the weekend he believes the team’s “hefty lifting is done.”

If one assumes the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays aren’t the unnamed AL East team involved in Eovaldi’s market, that’d leave the Rays and Orioles. Baltimore is the better fit, with Tampa Bay having inked Zach Eflin to a $40MM deal to bolster an already quality rotation. Baltimore entered the offseason seeking starting pitching. Thus far, they’ve swapped in Kyle Gibson for Jordan Lyles in the veteran innings eater role but haven’t made the kind of mid-rotation or better addition most had anticipated. Baltimore has some rotation options — i.e. Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez — but it’s a group light on MLB experience.

A few other teams make some sense as speculative possibilities, albeit as imperfect fits. The Rangers have added four starters already this winter, though they could at least consider another arm to push both Jake Odorizzi and Dane Dunning into depth roles. The Twins have ample payroll space amidst a quiet winter. Rotation help isn’t a need per se, but adding Eovaldi would help guard against some of the injury question marks with the in-house staff. The White Sox may not have any additional spending room after their five-year commitment to Andrew Benintendi. If they do have some money to play with, though, another starter would fit on the roster. The Dodgers could look to fortify their rotation with Walker Buehler missing most or all of next season. There’s room on paper for Eovaldi but they’d have to exceed the luxury tax threshold, which they don’t seem eager to do, in order to add him.

Where does the MLBTR readership anticipate Eovaldi winding up?

(poll link for app users)

 

Padres, Angels Showing Interest In Nathan Eovaldi

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The Padres and Angels are both seeking starting pitching, with the two sides showing interest in top remaining free agent starter Nathan Eovaldi, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI. Bradford adds that one other unnamed AL East team is interested in Eovaldi. Meanwhile, Robert Murray of Fansided reports that the Padres are also among the teams “strongly in the mix” for free agent Johnny Cueto.

The Angels have a fairly solid five-man rotation on paper, but since Shohei Ohtani’s been around they’ve tended to opt for a six-man rotation. As such, the addition of Eovaldi to stabilize the rotation makes plenty of sense. Ohtani and Tyler Anderson look set to occupy the first two spots in their rotation, with Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez rounding out the five. That young trio has shown plenty of promise and the addition of a veteran like Eovaldi would give them a very formidable group of starters to go into the 2023 season with. Even if they don’t wind up signing Eovaldi, the Halos are keen to add more pitching, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com, and certainly could make a play for some of the other remaining options on the market.

For the Padres, they currently have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell locked in to three spots in their rotation. They’ve indicated that they plan to start Nick Martinez and new signing Seth Lugo in their rotation in 2023, which would make the need for a starter less obvious. However, Lugo has been far more effective as a reliever over his career and hasn’t made a start since 2020, while Martinez only made ten last year, so there’s a little bit of uncertainty there.

As for the unnamed AL East team, the Yankees would appear an unlikely suitor given their needs in left-field and recent signing of Carlos Rodon while the Blue Jays signed Chris Bassitt and don’t seem to be focused on the rotation. Hitters appear to be more of a pressing need for the Rays, who signed Zach Eflin earlier in the off-season and have the makings of a strong rotation as things stand. That leaves the Orioles – who have been vocal about wanting to add starting pitching this winter – and a return to the Red Sox – who have an uncertain rotation picture – as the obvious options. Bradford’s report does note that the Red Sox do not appear to be the front-runner for Eovaldi, although that doesn’t preclude them from being the AL East team interested.

With most of the starting pitchers off the board, Eovaldi is the top remaining option. MLBTR ranked him as the 23rd best free agent this winter, and predicted a two-year, $34MM contract. He’s shown tremendous consistency over the past three years in Boston, pitching to ERAs of 3.72, 3.75 and 3.87 over 340 innings. Shoulder and back issues restricted him to 109 1/3 innings in 2022, but he’s been a dependable starter when fit. In 2022, he struck out batters at slightly above-average 22.4% clip against a walk rate of 4.4%.

The Red Sox did offer Eovaldi a qualifying offer at the end of the season, so any team (outside of Boston) that signed him would be giving up draft picks. The Padres already forfeited their second and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft, as well as $1MM in international bonus money, for signing Xander Bogaerts. So if they added Eovaldi, they’d be giving up their third and sixth-highest picks in the draft as well. The Angels would have to forfeit their second-highest pick, as well as take a $500K hit in international bonus money.

In San Diego’s case, it would seem to make it more likely they’d go after someone like Cueto, who wouldn’t require any draft pick forfeiture. Of course, the Padres are squarely in win-now mode and may view draft picks as a necessary cost to put their team over the top, but given Eovaldi will surely command a multi-year deal with a strong AAV, as well as the draft pick forfeiture and their less-obvious need for rotation help, it’d be a surprise if they won a bidding war for the veteran’s services.

Instead, Cueto could make a lot of sense to deepen their starting pitching stocks. Cueto, 37 in February, tossed 158 1/3 innings of 3.35 ERA ball for the White Sox in 2022, his best season since finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting for the Giants back in 2016. While his strikeout rate was the worst of his 15-year big league career, Cueto offset that by posting a strong 5.1% walk rate, and keeping the ball in the park far more often. That came after posting a 4.59 ERA over 194 innings over the previous three seasons.

It seems likely Cueto will land a one-year deal, which could help the Padres as a means to insure them against Lugo and/or Martinez needing to be moved back to the bullpen. He also brings a wealth of experience and won a World Series with Kansas City in 2015. That could well appeal to a San Diego team determined to take the next step and win a championship.

Yankees Interested In Nathan Eovaldi

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The top remaining free agent pitcher, Carlos Rodón, reportedly prefers the Yankees as his future club. They are interested in him as well, but the problem is that Rodón is seeking a deal of seven years or more at a significant salary while the club would prefer to keep it down to four or five years. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they will try to find a compromise but that the Yanks will also be considering Nathan Eovaldi as a backup plan.

Starting pitchers have been flying off the board in recent weeks, leaving Eovaldi as one of the best ones still out there. Over the past few seasons, Eovaldi has oscillated between being a very effective hurler and extended injury absences. After establishing himself in the majors with the Dodgers, Marlins and Yankees, he required Tommy John surgery late in 2016, wiping out the remainder of that season and the following one.

The Rays signed him for that 2017 season he was going to miss, with a $2MM option for 2018 that they eventually triggered. Up until that time, he had shown a powerful arm but without the strong results to match. He had a 4.21 ERA at that point in his career with a 17% strikeout rate. But 2018 proved to be a huge pivot point for him. He tossed 111 innings on the year with a 3.81 ERA and 22.2% strikeout rate. That included a midseason trade to the Red Sox, with Eovaldi going on to toss 22 1/3 innings in the postseason with a 1.61 ERA and 18.8% strikeout rate, helping the club win the World Series.

Those postseason heroics resulted in him returning to the Sox on a four-year, $68MM deal. Over the course of that contract, he’s continued to produce strong results but also deal with injuries. In 2019, he missed significant time due surgery to clean up loose bodies in his elbow. He was only able to log 67 2/3 innings that season with a 5.99 ERA. He bounced back in the shortened 2020 campaign, making nine starts with a 3.72 ERA, though he did miss time due to a calf strain.

He stayed healthy in 2021 and made 32 starts, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate. In 2022, injuries caught him again, as he went to the IL twice, once for back inflammation and once for shoulder inflammation. He still made 20 starts on the year with a 3.87 ERA and 22.4% strikeout rate, strong results but a concerning step back that came with diminished velocity. He averaged around 97 MPH in the first three years of his Boston deal but dipped to 95.7 MPH in 2022.

Despite that injury track record and Eovaldi’s rejection of a qualifying offer, MLBTR still predicted he would land a solid two-year contract worth $34MM, or $17MM per season. The free agent market has generally been quite strong this offseason, with many players outpacing their projections. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Eovaldi, who turns 33 in February, push for a third year or a higher average annual salary. Outside of him and Rodón, some of the best remaining starters on the open market are Noah Syndergaard, Michael Wacha, Corey Kluber, Drew Rucinski, Johnny Cueto, Drew Smyly and others. Those are still some quality arms but the options for a true impact upgrade for the rotation of a competitive team are dwindling.

For the Yankees, they don’t strictly need a starter, given that their rotation is in good shape. Ace Gerrit Cole should be followed by Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas, with one spot available for either Domingo Germán or Clarke Schmidt. Adding another pitcher like Rodón or Eovaldi would bump Germán and Schmidt down the chart while also providing some cover in case Severino or Montas struggle to stay healthy like they did in 2022.

The payroll might be an issue, however, as it’s been suggested that the club would prefer to stay under the third tier of the competitive balance tax, which is $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would increase and the club would also see its top 2023 draft pick moved back ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll at $250MM with a CBT figure of $266MM. A mega deal for Rodón or even a more modest one for Eovaldi would send the club well beyond that third tier and could even push them close to the $293MM top tier. With other needs around the roster, including left field and the bullpen, whether the Yanks actually have an appetite for a rotation splurge remains to be seen.

Eovaldi has been connected to the Blue Jays this offseason, though that was before they signed Chris Bassitt. There’s also been rumors of a return to Boston though the latest reporting indicated he wasn’t a top priority for the club.

Pitching Notes: Cardinals, Eovaldi, Rodón

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Currently boasting a staff of Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals were not predicted to be heavily involved in the free-agent starting pitcher market this offseason. Nevertheless, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is aware that, “a year from now, we know we’re going to need starting pitching,” per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Mozeliak added that the team has recognized that they will have to replace or re-sign four starters after the 2023 season.

Wainwright, who re-signed with St. Louis on a one-year, $17.5MM deal with incentives, has already stated that the 2023 season will be his last. Additionally, Mikolas, Flaherty, and Montgomery will all be free agents at the conclusion of the 2023 season. Matz and Hudson are the only starters with a contract for the 2024 season, with Matz signed through the 2025 season and Hudson a free agent after 2024. Goold reports that the Cardinals “plan to explore contract extensions with at least two of the starters who are unsigned beyond 2023,” with Mikolas being the most likely candidate.

The Cardinals are currently projected to enter the 2023 season with a payroll of $171.9MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, after the season, they are forecasted by Roster Resource to have only $94MM in commitments — giving them ample room to add to their team. Despite this financial freedom, Mozeliak notes that the Cardinals “have some young starters coming,” perhaps signaling a desire to avoid free agent starters in order to fit within the team’s budget.

Lefty Matthew Liberatore (the Cardinals’ No.4 Prospect) struggled in his Major League debut during the 2022 season, pitching to a 5.97 ERA in 34 2/3 innings with a 17.4 SO% and 11.2 BB%. He didn’t fare much better in his second season at Triple-A Memphis, pitching to a 5.17 ERA in 115 innings with a 23.5 SO% and 8.3 BB%. Nevertheless, Liberatore is only 23 years old and still has plenty of time to settle in at the Major League level. Additionally, Gordon Graceffo (Cardinals’ No.3 Prospect), Tink Hence (No.6), and Michael McGreevy (No.9) all are expected to make their debuts during the 2024 season, with Graceffo and McGreevy earning promotions to Double-A Springfield during the 2022 season, while Hence spent the entire season with Single-A Palm Beach.

More pitching-related items from around baseball….

  • According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the Red Sox do not view former All-Star Nathan Eovaldi as a top priority in their starting rotation search. Bradford adds that other teams are showing more interest in Eovaldi than the level currently displayed by Boston. The Mets were previously rumored to be in on Eovaldi, but their recent five-year, $75MM deal with Kodai Senga likely takes them out of the running for the soon-to-be 33-year-old. Eovaldi joined Boston during the 2018 season, with the righty helping them win the 2018 World Series. The Red Sox rewarded the starter with a four-year, $68MM contract that resulted in 407 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA baseball, with a solid 24.4 SO% and strong 5.6 BB%. Despite being limited to 20 starts in 2022 due to low back inflammation and right shoulder inflammation, Eovaldi pitched to a 3.87 ERA in 109 1/3 innings with a 22.4 SO% and 4.4 BB%.
  • In other St. Louis news, the Cardinals have reportedly entered the Carlos Rodon sweepstakes, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. With Rodon seeking a seven-year deal and St. Louis having only two starters signed for the 2023 season, the Cards might look to join the bidding war for the two-time All-Star’s services. Rodon, 30, signed a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants during the 2021 offseason, with an opt-out after the first year. Brushing aside injury concerns and making a career-high 31 starts, the southpaw pitched to a 2.88 ERA in 178 innings, with an absurd 33.4 SO% and strong 7.3 BB% before opting out of the contract at the end of the season. For his part, Mozeliak has remained coy, stating that while the team does “have some resources available,” but that he wouldn’t “believe many of the rumors you’re reading right now,” per Derrick Goold.

Blue Jays Notes: Senga, Bassitt, Taillon, Reyes, Brantley, Gallo

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The Blue Jays are exploring several roster upgrades, with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club has interest in such players as Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Alex Reyes, and Michael Brantley.  “There doesn’t appear to be traction…at the moment” between the Jays and Chris Bassitt, though the right-hander is another free agent hurler at least under consideration for the team.

Starting pitching is Toronto’s clearest need, and as one agent told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Blue Jays are “all over the pitching market” right now.  To this end, it is fair to speculate that the Jays have at least checked in on basically every available arm, which has been the team’s strategy for the previous three offseasons.  Davidi adds that the Jays also “have some degree of interest” in Carlos Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi, and their own incumbent free agent in Ross Stripling.  Past reports have indicated that the Jays have extended an offer to Andrew Heaney, and they were interested in Kyle Gibson (before Gibson rejected Toronto’s one-year, $10MM offer to sign an identical deal with the Orioles), and even Justin Verlander, before Verlander joined the Mets.

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have solidified the front end of the Blue Jays’ rotation, but there is a lot of uncertainty afterwards, given how Jose Berrios and especially Yusei Kikuchi struggled in 2022.  There isn’t necessarily a guarantee that Kikuchi will even get a clear shot at a starting role, since he could at best be competing with Mitch White for the fifth starter’s job, or perhaps even be relegated to the bullpen if the Jays end up acquiring two new starters this winter.

As noted by both Nicholson-Smith and Davidi, the fact that the Jays were considering getting into Verlander’s market (even on a short-term deal) is another sign of how aggressive the team is willing to be, and perhaps a sign of how far they’ll stretch the payroll.  Bigger spending may be somewhat inevitable given the rising costs involved in the pitching market this offseason, though it might be a reach to see the Blue Jays spend what it will take to sign Rodon or perhaps even Senga, considering how the Japanese ace is drawing a lot of attention from multiple teams.  Speculatively, the Jays’ relative lack of interest in Bassitt could have to do with Bassitt’s desire for at least four guaranteed years, which may be a tall order for a pitcher heading into his age-34 season.

Reyes represents another kind of pitching addition, as the former top prospect is an intriguing bounce-back candidate who would fit on a lot of teams.  That said, Reyes also carries plenty of risk given his long injury history, including a shoulder surgery that kept him from pitching whatsoever in 2022.  It will be interesting to see how Reyes’ market materializes, as the Blue Jays and other teams will naturally be weighing the injury concerns, but the sheer amount of interest could still lead to a decent payday for the right-hander.

Beyond the pitching market, the Jays are also looking for left-handed hitting outfielders.  A gap in the outfield emerged after Toronto dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners, and a lefty swinger could help add balance to a largely right-handed Blue Jays lineup.  Brantley is one possibility, and while he is a player the Jays reportedly came very close to signing in the 2020-21 offseason, health questions also surround Brantley’s market.  Shoulder problems that eventually required surgery limited Brantley to only 64 games last season, and he has missed a lot of time earlier in his career with other injury woes.

Such names as Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger have also been linked to the Jays’ outfield search this winter, and agent Scott Boras told Nicholson-Smith and Hazel Mae (Twitter link) that Toronto indeed had interest in both of his clients.  Boras also said the Blue Jays had interest in another client in Joey Gallo, another left-handed hitter.

Gallo is coming off a thoroughly rough 2022 season, hitting only .160/.280/.357 with 19 homers over 410 plate appearances with the Yankees and Dodgers.  Gallo’s “three true outcomes” style will always limit his offensive productivity to some extent, yet he is only entering his age-29 season, and Gallo’s strikeouts haven’t stopped him from posting some big offensive numbers in the past.  As recently as 2021, Gallo posted a 4.2 fWAR season, and his ability to play a decent center field would also be of interest to a Jays team that would ideally like to give George Springer more time in a corner outfield spot.

With Gallo, Bellinger, and probably Brantley all in line to receive one-year bounce-back types of contracts, the Jays could be planning to address the outfield with just a shorter-term addition, and then focus on a longer-term addition for the rotation.  The Blue Jays appear to be open to all possibilities, however, and their pursuit of free agents is also obviously impacted by what they might do on the trade market, especially with their catching depth being in high demand.

Chaim Bloom On Bogaerts, Pitching, Offseason Additions

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9:34PM: Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe has some updates on the pitching search, citing right-hander Tommy Kahnle as a target for the Red Sox bullpen.  The Sox haven’t made much progress in recent talks with Eovaldi, and while the Red Sox are known to have interest in Kodai Senga, the Japanese star hasn’t yet visited Boston while making the rounds to visit other teams.

On the hitting front, Abreu was offered a three-year deal “in the low- to mid-$40MM range,” well below the three years and $59.5MM Abreu received from Houston.

6:47PM: Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom spoke with the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (Twitter thread) and other reporters today at the Winter Meetings, outlining his team’s extensive plans for the rest of the offseason.  Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez represent Boston’s most notable additions thus far, and Bloom said the Sox could yet add at least two more relievers to augment the bullpen.

All in all, Bloom said the team wanted to add “seven, eight, nine” players to “build the team we want to have.”  This list includes three or four position players, as well as at least one starting pitcher who can bring “upside, leadership, and consistency” to the rotation, as well as innings.

On paper, it looks like the Red Sox are aiming for a repeat of their first three offseasons under Bloom’s leadership, which saw the club made a wide array of moves big and small to shuffle up the roster.  This semi-overhaul added both everyday players and more complementary parts to the roster, with a general focus in acquiring controllable players and veterans on shorter-term contracts — with the major exception of Trevor Story, and his six-year, $140MM pact from last March.

Bloom’s tactics have drawn a mixed reaction at best from Red Sox Nation, as the team’s last three seasons have consisted of one trip to the ALCS (in 2021) and two last-place finishes (2020 and 2022) in the AL East.  Several of Bloom’s less-heralded moves have panned out, but several have also not borne fruit, and Boston’s relative lack of spending on big-ticket players has also drawn criticism given the team’s traditional large-market ways.  The Red Sox have remained at least a top-10 payroll team over Bloom’s three seasons and even exceeded the luxury tax line last year, though many of the team’s biggest expenditures were signed before Bloom joined the organization.

The Red Sox have quite a bit of money coming off the books this winter, of course, with Xander Bogaerts being the club’s most prominent free agent.  Reports from the weekend indicated that the Sox weren’t one of the primary members of Bogaerts’ market, and that the Red Sox had yet to make “a competitive offer” to the shortstop.

Bloom pushed back against that speculation today, saying “have certainly made offers to him, we’ve been engaged, and we’ll stay engaged.”  Bogaerts is still a chief priority for the Red Sox, though Bloom expected the shortstop to check out all of his options in his first trip to free agency.

Re-signing Bogaerts and solidifying the shortstop position for years to come would naturally have a big impacton Boston’s plans to remake its position-player mix.  Bloom noted that Story or Enrique Hernandez could potentially take over at shortstop if Bogaerts departed, but if he stayed, Story would likely remain at second base and Hernandez could bounce around the diamond, perhaps primarily staying in center field.

Story and Hernandez figure to play everyday roles somewhere, and Rafael Devers has third base covered and Alex Verdugo will get regular work at one or both of the corner outfield spots.  However, there’s quite of bit of flux elsewhere around the diamond and quite a bit more opportunity to add new faces, depending on how much playing time the Red Sox want to give to such younger players as Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, or Jeter Downs.  For instance, the Sox technically have plenty of first base/DH candidates in Casas, Bobby Dalbec, and Eric Hosmer, but the team still made a big push to sign Jose Abreu before Abreu decided to join the Astros.

Pursuing Abreu would seem to indicate a greater willingness to spend on the front office’s part.  A very big contract will obviously be necessary to re-sign Bogaerts, and bringing Nathan Eovaldi back will likely also require a healthy multi-year commitment.  Bloom said that incumbent free agents Eovaldi and Michael Wacha were both still possibilities as the team explores the pitching market.

Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Strahm Drawing Strong Interest

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The markets for right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Matt Strahm are “heating up,” according to Rob Bradford of WEEI. He speculates that one of them could sign prior to the Winter Meetings, which begin on December 4.

Bradford doesn’t specifically link any teams to the two hurlers, but it’s not surprising that they are generating lots of interest. Both of them have shown various levels of quality in the past but neither is likely to command a massive contract, meaning very few teams would be priced out of their bidding. Given that just about every team could use some extra arms, it makes sense that many of them would be kicking the tires.

Eovaldi is an established mid-rotation starter but has shown himself capable of pushing his production towards the front end. In 2021, he made 32 starts for the Red Sox, throwing 182 1/3 innings in the process. His 3.75 ERA might seem to be merely decent, but his 25.5% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate were both a few ticks better than average. Advanced metrics felt he deserved much better, with his 2.79 FIP almost a full run better than his ERA. FanGraphs wins above replacement, which is FIP-based, gave Eovaldi 5.7 on the season. That was the third-highest tally among all MLB pitchers that year, trailing only Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler.

However, he’s not coming off the ideal platform year, as back and shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings in 2022. He kept his ERA down to 3.87 but his velocity was down in the second half and his strikeout rate dropped to 22.4%. This isn’t the first time injuries have been a concern, as he’s twice had Tommy John surgery and also had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in 2019. He’s also turning 33 in February and has been tagged with a qualifying offer, tying him to draft pick compensation. Those factors will put a damper on his market, with MLBTR predicting a two-year, $34MM contract. The free agent market has aces like Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon, but they are all likely to command nine-figure deals. The next tier features many mid-rotation options like Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and others, but Eovaldi is one of the more interesting upside plays in that group.

As for Strahm, he’s proven himself to be a capable left-handed reliever, which is often more than enough to garner free agent interest on its own. But he’s also hoping to find an opportunity as a starter this offseason, which could expand his market even wider. He hasn’t made multiple starts in a season since 2019, but Michael Lorenzen hadn’t made more than three starts in a season since 2015 when he set out to free agency looking for a starting gig and signed a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels a year ago.

Strahm has a somewhat similar profile and could potentially secure himself a deal in that range, though it’s not a guarantee he’ll take that path. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported today that Strahm is more likely to secure a bullpen job given the weakness of the free agent market in that department. As Rosenthal points out, the other southpaw relievers like Taylor Rogers, Will Smith and Brad Hand all had concerning performances in 2022, while Matt Moore was great but after many poor seasons prior to that. Those factors could lead to Strahm getting a nice offer to be a team’s primary bullpen lefty, which might be tempting enough that he forgoes his plan to jump into a rotation again. He posted a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings this year for the Red Sox, striking out 26.9% of batters faced while walking 8.8%.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

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