Luis Arraez had surgery today to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. The three-time All-Star announced the news himself on X, while Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase added that the Padres expect to have him back at full health in time for spring training.
Arraez had been playing through the pain since mid-June, when he tore a ligament in his left thumb on a slide into third base. He sat out the All-Star Game to rest the injured digit but otherwise played in 70 of the Padres’ final 78 games and all seven of their postseason contests. However, he knew surgery would be necessary if he was going to make a proper recovery, and once the Padres were eliminated from the playoffs, he went under the knife.
With an NL-best .314 batting average, Arraez claimed his third consecutive batting title this season, but his overall numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as they’ve been in the recent past. After putting up an .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022 to ’23, Arraez produced a .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ in 2024. Those are still above-average numbers, but that level of offense isn’t great coming from a poor defensive first baseman/terrible defensive second baseman. And unfortunately, Arraez can’t blame all of his struggles on his thumb; he hit .310 with a 106 wRC+ before the injury and .319 with a 113 wRC+ after. At the same time, that’s not to say the torn ligament didn’t have any effect. His Statcast expected wOBA on contact fell from .335 before the injury to .312 afterward. It’s possible the pain from the injury prevented him from hitting the ball quite as hard.
Despite his down year, Arraez should be one of the highest-paid arbitration-eligible players next season, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in 2025. It’s his final year of team control, so he’ll look to get back to full strength and perform more like his 2022-23 self, either to earn a bigger contract in free agency or an extension from San Diego. The Padres will hope for the same, since the best version of Arraez can be an excellent table-setter atop the lineup in front of hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill.
Arraez needs to hit behind guys like Tatis & Merrill instead of clogging up the base paths in front of them.
I’d rather have ducks on the pond for Tati and Manny. Merrill batted 7th more often than not… are you suggesting the 3-time consecutive batting champ bat 8th or something more akin to Merrill-Tatis-Arraez 1-2-3? Arraez isn’t a run producer/extra base hit guy (RBI man), per se.
Guys like Arraez, you either bat them leadoff or 9th. There’s nothing wrong batting the guy with the second best OBP on your team leadoff.
Gwynning, I’ve wondered all season about him batting 3rd ala your name sake who hit a lot of singles (especially in the last years).
A singles hitter becomes dangerous if batting behind Pro and Tatis who hit for extra bases or can steal a base after a walk / single.
I like leaving JM where he was because of Shildt’s desire to not mess him up by asking too much of him. I wonder if he stays down that low in 2025?
Maybe he is leadoff?
LT- I’m not saying it couldn’t work, just seems too odd for AJ and Schildt to move up power guys to leadoff but move Arraez down into a “power” spot. Who knows? Merrill-Tati-Arraez-Manny-Bogey-Cronie (Offseason signings not included) does seem like an entertainable experiment in ST!
Gwynning;
You’re baseball smart.
Think Dodgers: Manny Mota & Vc Davalillo.
Arraez’ best position is that of a pinch-hitter. Can do it till he’s 40….at least.
Bring him into a close game at a decisive point – where one or two runners are in scoring position and a base hit turns
the game.
The fact that he’s in the dugout with a bat changes the opposing managers strategy. Arraez can turn a game
without even getting into it.
LOL
Slap singles aren’t so useless when there’s a guys standing on second…
@wallabeechamp
Arraez is more of a get on base guy for the other guys. He isn’t a power hitter so you’d rather he gets a single or double for one of their power guys to drive him in.
I think Tatis, Merrill and Machado have to be 2-3-4 in some order. Once you eliminate those three, then Arraez makes sense as #1 based on OBP/OPS, while Bogaerts makes more sense #5 since he can occasionally go deep and punish the other team if they pitch around the SD #4.
As great as his batting average is, Arraez really isn’t an RBI guy. Edit: just noticed above poster said the same thing
Honestly, Luis is one of the most overrated players in the league, all he really does is hit for average…barely gets any XBH’s, his OPS is always low, he doesn’t drive in runners, cant run, cant field….he is barely valuable to his team.
Definitely a 1 trick pony.
Get gets on base ahead of power hitters. Thats his job and he’s good at it.
He doesn’t walk but he doesn’t strike out. He struck out like 18 times all year.
“”He can’t throw and he can’t field, but what can he do? Guys, check your reports or I’m gonna point at Pete”
He struck out 29 times – the 18 number you’re thinking of, is how many double plays he grounded into, which is quite incredible when you consider two-thirds of his at-bats were with no one on base.
He’s never seen a pitch he won’t swing at – even if it’s bad contact.
He struck out 18 times with the padres. Wasn’t looking at his Miami stats.
1 tool player
We don’t need him to slug. We need him to get on ahead of the big bats. He does that. He can run I guess he isn’t as fast as De La Cruz but he can still get around the bases. He made great defensive plays at 1st all year.
These tired tropes that he can run and field are just that. All these people that bash him would love to have him leading off for their team.
.372 career OBP. League average speed and league average defense at 2 positions. Current FA value projected at 5/62-64.
Can Padres get a slight discount because he is coming off surgery and he has said he would like an extension? With an team option year at the end that would give him a higher AAV if exercised, but would not count towards CBT payroll now?
5/55 with $15 million option year and $1 million buyout? Saves Padres $4 million on CBT payroll.
The amount of chat that surrounds Arraez is crazy, when you consider Luis Rengifo reached base at a better clip this year. Just saying.
Lou Ferrigno may not of got on much, but he has insane power when it matters.
Sadly, old-school baseball minds don’t care about walks unless you’re a pitcher.
Rengifo played in 78 games. Maybe if he played more people would pay attention.
And yet he still managed to be more productive than Arraez did in 150 games.
Cam Rengifo had a higher percentage of getting on base in 76 games. Arraez had more hits by far.
And yet Rengifo is still not mentioned by anyone.
Maybe because Rengifo is injured every season. Maybe because Arraez (13.6) has more than double the WAR as Rengifo (5.7) over the past 4 seasons and they are the same age with the same service time.
He’ll be ready for his new team. Can’t see San Diego paying him almost $15 M.
All except for the fact that the managing partner and the GM both said that he would be back in 2025. Sadly for you, they are the ones that make the decisions about who plays for the Padres.
Do tell. Please share your source.
Stop being a lazy bleep. Google is your friend. Or maybe actually READ the articles on this website and the ones they link to. Or do you just come here to comment and only read the headlines before sharing your “opinion”?
I Googled “will arraez be back with the padres” and nothing came up.
I looked at the MLB-R article entitled “Luis Arraez Interested In Extension With Padres” and it mentioned nothing by the GM or managing partner.
lol not more hot air!
Ok Ryan.
Is Arraez the only player to lead the league in BA that ended the season on 3 different teams?
Yes.
.314 avg with a bad thumb? Impressive
He tore a ligament in his thumb in mid-June, making it painful to grip a bat, and hit .321/.353/.416/.769 with a 116 OPS+ in the 2nd half.
Has to make you excited about what a healthy Arraez can do in 2025 if you are a Padres fan.
Oh, and LEO, he is exactly league average for his career as a 1B and a -1 DRS at 2B. Post COVID he is a +4 2B and again exactly league average as a 1B. Look at actual stats. Pay attention. Your opinion doesn’t matter nor does what writers say.
-5 DRS across 1B and 2B this season, in only 872 innings. And incredibly, he’s in the 1st percentile (!!) for range.
But since you want to look at his whole career, he’s -51 Outs Above Average across the board.
Honestly, the Pads would probably be better off giving you a glove.
You do realize that you need a minimum of 400 games or 2500 innings played to measure defensive performance with DRS, right?
Oh, you mean you think you can tell from 39 games and 339 innings at 2B?
Please stfu. You are embarrassing yourself.
If there needs to be a minimum of 400 games or 2,500 innings to measure DRS, why did you quote his DRS at 1B despite the fact he’s only played 146 games and 1,152 innings there in his career?
You had a go at the Author of this MLBTR post in a completely condescending and disrespectful way, only to go ahead and undermine your own argument.
Buh bye. I have limited time for morons and you have proved that you are.
OAA graded Arraez as worth -12 runs below average defensively. It’s long been known that he sucks with the glove.
The trade for Arraez was interesting. I don’t think the Padres gave up much at all in terms of prospects, but the cherry on top was to get Marlins to pay his salary in 2024.
So Luis gave the thumbs up to the doctor to get surgery done.
I’ll see myself out.
Time to trade him as his value will never be higher as a batting champ 3 years in a row.
…for 3 different teams.
Dylan Cease and Arraez to the mariners for Luis Castillo and Luke raley
Castillo costs too much.
He would be cheaper than cease and arraez combined. Raley is on team control js
I don’t hate the hypothetical deal…
The Padres dealt with a lot of injuries this year, but have most guys back next year. With better luck on health, look out.
.
Brew – the BP starts out much much better than 2024. The end of the year BP only loses Scott while having Hoeing and Adam. Jakob, Reynolds, Gillespie, Cosgrove and a few other AA guys to fill that 1 spot.
Healthy Machado and Arreaz and Bog to start the year.
Maybe Campy on a bounce back.
Just don’t have a lot of margin for injuries again next year though.
Not counting on it, but maybe Tatis plays more than 3 months next year?
I am curious what the Pads payroll with be next year. They were a top 5 team in MLB this year, hope they give it a full go again next year. And with the attendance and extra playoff revenue, I’ll be pissed if they hold payroll down.
I guess I’m old school. I appreciate the consistently high batting average just as I did back in the Gwynn days. I hope Arraez finishes his career in the Brown and Gold.
And that’s the key – he does hit over .280 so even if his batting average is close to his OBP, that could be productive. Can he sustain that is a big question? If he gets on at .350 OBP and 90% of it is from BA, then that can be valuable because chances are he may get hits with people on base to drive them in where a walk may not.
This is really going to sap his power
This might possibly be the most interesting team in all of MLB in the next 12 months. Wanted to go all in and did in 2023 but didn’t get the expected/desired results. Dropped nearly 100 million in payroll for 2024 and had two chances to advance to the NLCS-of which one chance was at home. Picked up Profar who kicked in first-half relevance, had Waldron that was the team’s ace for a spell, brought up one of the few, arguably MLB ready minor leaguers the team still had in Merrill who kept the team in the game most of the season-esp the second half and fracked ridiculous performances out of Higgy and Solano (and even Peralta here and there). Team lost Soto and Snell-who was a wasteland first half of the season and the best pitcher in MLB 2nd half but gained King (killed it) and Cease (who is Snell 2.0-just different because the guy could pitch a no-hittter or get yanked in the 1st the entire season). Those long-term contracts the team is so fond of (Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth, Bogaerts) only increase in 2025. If ownership wants to keep payroll near where it was for 2024 and under 200 mil, will be very difficult to replicate the results from the über-affordable guys. Darvish is a warrior but not getting younger. He missed substantial time this year for personal reasons. So is Machado but how effective is he offensively playing through various injuries vs resting/recovering? Love Tatis but he is the second coming of Eric Davis…5 tool player but as frail as china and almost guaranteed to be out for a solid slate of 30+ games. Bogaerts not the most durable either. Squad had injuries and some Darvish stuff on the unlucky side but also had some lightning in a bottle finds as well. How much of that fantasy bullpen that didn’t come into play the last two playoff games of the year comes back? How much of it is worth paying? Team needs another outfielder and starting pitching. Kim is as good as gone to SF. Can you really afford to pay Arraez vs Cease? At what point does the team seriously look to bring up De Vries and/or Salas? (Guessing not until post All-Star break if things backslide). Musgrove gonzo for 2025 doesn’t help. Darvish, King and Cease (if not traded) along with Waldron and one or two of the unimpressive innings-eaters from the various 2024 transactions still requires another two starters and precious little in the minor leagues with Snelling packed off. 2024 seemed like the best chance for the Padres to succeed in the postseason during this regime. All that despite the payroll dumps, new skip and multiple moving parts throughout. As impressive was the job that AJ Preller did in 2024, to stay the same or even improve will require even greater heft. Stay tuned…
If ownership wants to keep payroll near where it was for 2024 and under 200 mil, will be very difficult to replicate the results from the über-affordable guys.
==============================
That’s what it all boils down to. They are already over the cap. They have to replace:
Higgy
Kim
Profar
Musgrove
And various pieces-Perez, Adam, Scott
I assume they will be good again, but 90 wins will be a stretch without breaking the next cap.
Why do they have to replace Adam?
What a clown article. I guess a batting title is bad now. Best hitter since ichiro. I’d rather see .300+ average than 30+ Homer’s and 150+ s/o any day. The game is a hard watch nowadays
1-No one said a batting title was bad.
2-30+ HRs and 150+ Ks includes Judge, Ohtani, Ozuna, Gunnar Henderson, and others. You have to include the total contribution.
Tommy Thumb surgery