Last offseason, MLBTR took extensive looks at how the market for each of the top free agents might shake out, providing those pieces to our Front Office subscribers. We're doing the same this winter, kicking things off with a look at the likely bidders for Juan Soto and where each stands with regard to payroll and the luxury tax, among other aspects that ought to be considered.
At this point, there's little need to chronicle Soto's greatness to this point in his career. In our Top 50 Free Agent rankings, I penned over 1000 words on Soto alone, outlining just some of the reasons he's rightly referred to as a "generational" talent (a term that perhaps is used a bit too cavalierly these days). To borrow a couple excerpts from that:
"It’s rare for a player to even make his big league debut at 19, let alone to immediately break out as a star. That’s precisely what Soto did, however, belting an opposite-field home run off Chad Green in his second big league plate appearance. One home run doesn’t make anyone a star, of course, but Soto was completely unfazed by MLB pitching and went on to post a .292/.406/.517 batting line and swat 22 homers all before turning 20. In the entire history of the game, no one as young as Soto has turned in a season that good. Soto’s 142 OPS+ in his rookie season is the best in MLB history (min. 300 plate appearances). Soto’s debut harkened back to Hall of Famer Mel Ott’s jaw-dropping 19-year-old rookie season with the New York Giants exactly 90 years prior."
That, of course, is just looking at his rookie year. Soto's only gotten better since then, recording more walks than strikeouts in five consecutive seasons. He belted a career-high 41 homers this past season while slashing .288/.419/.569. By measure of wRC+, he was 80% better than league average at the plate (and somehow still only his team's second-best hitter; we see you, Aaron Judge). Yet Soto and all of his career accolades are hitting the open market at just 26 years of age. Judge, by comparison, played his first full season at age 25. He was entering his age-31 season in free agency. Shohei Ohtani was entering his age-29 campaign. Free agents rarely hit the market this young, and it's feasible we haven't even seen the best version of Soto yet.
When it comes to contract expectations, throw precedent and norms out the window. If you're not willing to put down at least a decade -- and likely 12, 13, 14 or even 15 years -- you're not likely to get a seat at the table. (Though it's fun to at least think of a clean-payroll club offering an extreme AAV on a shorter-term deal with an opt-out; six years, $450MM anyone?)
We know most of the teams that have already met with Soto by now, but let's take a look at each and try to identify which clubs might emerge as the ever-popular "mystery team" based on their payroll, tax status, and other factors.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
tigers182
I don’t even need to read this article to know the right answer is Detroit.
Luke Strong
Absolutely, Soto is a perfect fit for the Tigers and he should want to play there and Chris Ilitch should want to sign him… he’s a great bet. He plugs into a very young team and they’re a juggernaut for years to come. Potential all stars at nearly every position.
Pete'sView
“Potential all stars at nearly every position.” As much as I like the Tigers, I don’t know about that. Unless Detroit makes non-Soto impact moves this off season, I think they’ll regress.
Tork, McKinstry, Vierling . . .? Come on.
roob
Yankees or Mets. End of story.
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
C’mon man. Mets obviously.
Rexhudler86
Soto is going to the royals.
Jacksson13
MINNY SOTO !!
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Soto to the Orioles for 1/2 the cost and Boras is working for free on this…Soto is determined to sign with the Orioles
Dynasty
MLBTR has paywalls now?
just_thinkin
Had for awhile, but it’s gotten really out of hand over the last year. Like 1 in 5 articles now.
ItsThatOneGuy
right?! its gotten so bad, and i frequently finding myself going to other sources because of it. It will be a full pay site before long except for really basic articles. Used to be one of my most visited sites.
all in the suit that you wear
It’s only $3 per month.
FemboySportsFan!
@all in the suit
Doesn’t mean we should be obligated to pay it.
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
You’re not obligated to pay it. But try going to ESPN when every article that has substance to it is paywall. Especially the hockey. My goodness I can’t stand it over there.
WillieMaysHayes24
Just copy the link to the article you want to read and go to archive.is
Paste the link and voila! No more paywall.
This works for most paywalls, but sadly, not mlbtr.
letitbelowenstein
If I had $3 a month, I’d get married.
ItsThatOneGuy
death by subscription. its everywhere. its not $3. its ANOTHER $3.
roob
You know what will always be free? Fox propaganda channel.
Dynasty
They should just put more banner ads at the top like everyone else.
Pete'sView
Dynasty –
God, no!
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
What? It’s really just the chats and mail bags conversations that the guys have with the subscribers, and then perhaps one article a day.
One in five articles lol.
Pete'sView
just_thinkin —
Only for really cheap fans. MLBTR is a bargain.
rct
“Like 1 in 5 articles now”
This is insanely wrong. Of the last 30 articles on the site, only two of them are Front Office articles and one of those is merely a chat transcript. Every single transactional article is free. Only the rare speculative or recap articles are paywalled.
And by the way, you can remove the paywall for like $30 *a year*. It’s like $2 a month. You’re obviously visiting this site every day and getting 95% of the articles for free. Stop whining and complaining about it.
LaBellaVita
$30 dollars for a year? Are you saying I would have to give up one lunch at the local diner during the year to pay for something that provides me hours of reading pleasure?
Lindor's Bodyguard
$3 per month. It almost broke me but…
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
For as often as I go here and to the NBA site, it’s worth one cup of coffee per month.
These guys are pretty quick with the headlines and it’s very comprehensive. Come here exclusively and I won’t miss hardly anything.
It’s a bargain to me especially considering I used to pay 50 cents then a dollar for the USA Today on Tuesdays to get all the stats LOL
just_thinkin
Soto is the most boring offseason topic imaginable.
Lindor's Bodyguard
Trevor Bauer
just_thinkin
TOUCHE!! LMAO
Pete'sView
just_thinkin —
Sure, the most intriguing FA in 50+ years is “boring?”
Art Shamsky
The article basically says what everyone already knows: Soto to the Marlins is all but a lock.
nosake
If your ego is as big as a blimp and you want the optimum attention you think you deserve, where you gonna sign??
FemboySportsFan!
well, I wanna see where you sign too.
rct
The Chiba Lotte Marines. They lose Roki Sasaki but gain Juan Soto.
Jimbo_Jones
Angels
nosake
LOL
bryzzo
Just read the article and it says cubs GM Jed Hoyer is all in on Soto but unfortunately he won’t go 10 years and settles for David Dejesus on a 1 year player option contract.
Citizen1
I’d like one of the up and coming teams recent playoff teams , Kc Detroit or Baltimore to sign Soto. He’s worth 10 years at avg 5 war but later years will be at dh due to poor fielding but better than avg playoff hitting. Serious pass at 12+ years. Likely it’ll be giants or Mets signing who won’t be near the playoffs.
Miken31
The Mets won’t be near the playoffs? The same Mets who were in the National League championship series last year? What an informed opinion.
Citizen1
Thanks. Mets also lost several key starters and may not resign Alsnso.
Miken31
They haven’t lost any key starters. Free agency has begun and they haven’t lost anybody yet. They also have an endless payroll and some good young players ready for the majors. They have an owner who wants to win more than any owner in the sport. They have a brilliant baseball president. The assumption would be they will be a perennial playoff contender.
Mikenmn
I’d like to see Soto to go to a team that isn’t one of the mega-revenue teams–and I’m a Yankees fan. Put this guy on a young and a talented group, and maybe it can produce a mini-dynasty before its roster gets picked apart by free agency.
Denden
Young and talented top three: Seattle, Tampa Bay, Boston.
Definitely sign with Boston. Farm is loaded with talent. And they’re willing to spend for championships again.
The Yankees are always willing to spend top dollar but their farm is so depleted because they almost always trade their home grown talent away.
Rumors2godsears
Your newest Seattle Mariner… Juan Soto.
joew
Pirates seem like the best fit… .. . yeah it was a joke..
pepenas34
Soto is not a 5 tool player and his best asset is his age, he is not better than Betts, Harper, Ohtani, Judge, Tatis, Lindor. At least to those players I can see a 10 + years deals.
Do you want to be around this guy for 15 years?
bruno202
Harper last 3 years 11 WAR and 147 OPS+
Soto last 3 years 18.9 WAR and 160 OPS+