The Reds have issued a qualifying offer to Nick Martinez, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The QO is valued at $21.05MM. The right-hander declined a $12MM player option over the weekend to hit free agency for a fourth straight winter.
Wittenmyer reports that the Reds and Martinez have discussed a multi-year extension but haven’t gained much traction. Rather than risk losing him for nothing, Cincinnati made the surprising call to issue the QO. Martinez and his representatives at the Boras Corporation have until November 19 to explore the market before deciding whether to lock in what would easily be the highest salary of his career.
Martinez had an excellent first season in Cincinnati. The Reds signed him to a two-year, $26MM free agent deal. Martinez had pitched well over two seasons in a swing role with the Padres. He pitched in the same capacity for the Reds, starting 16 of 42 appearances. He logged a career-best 142 1/3 innings with a 3.10 earned run average. He has allowed fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine in all three seasons since returning from Japan during the 2021-22 offseason. Martinez showed pristine control (3.2% walk percentage) and did a fantastic job avoiding hard contact. That mitigated concerns about how he’d adjust to hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Strong as that production was, the QO is a gamble for a team that doesn’t run huge payrolls. Martinez is headed into his age-34 season and would likely be limited to a three-year deal even if he weren’t attached to draft compensation. There looks to be a good chance he accepts the offer. The Reds spent around $90MM on player payroll this past season. If they end up a similar range in 2025, Martinez’s salary would account for upwards of a fifth of their spending.
That’s a lot to commit to a swingman, though it’d be more reasonable if the Reds wanted to give Martinez a full-time rotation job. He has been better out of the bullpen, as one would expect, though he was quite good in either role. Martinez posted a 3.84 ERA with a 19.1% strikeout rate out of the rotation. He turned in a sparkling 1.86 mark while fanning 22.5% of opponents across 53 1/3 relief innings.
The QO qualifies as a major league free agent contract. Article XX(b) free agents like Martinez gain full no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season, so the Reds couldn’t deal him this offseason without his consent if he accepts the offer. Cincinnati wouldn’t have made the offer if they weren’t prepared to welcome him back at that price.
If Martinez finds a robust market and is still able to land a notable multi-year contract, the Reds position themselves to land draft compensation. In the unexpected event that Martinez lands a $50MM+ deal elsewhere, Cincinnati would get a pick after the end of the first round in 2025. The likelier outcome is that a contract would be for less than $50MM, entitling the Reds to a pick between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round. Another team would forfeit draft pick(s) and potentially international signing bonus space to add Martinez. The penalties vary depending on the signing team’s revenue sharing status.
Image courtesy of Imagn.
Lol…. what?
Every 2-3 years the Reds either operate as a small market team or as a team who blindly throws money around at anyone who’ll take it.
If the Reds wanted to spend $21M, couldnt they have bought out the arb years one of their very talented pre-arb hitters to balance the salary going forward, giving the hitter more money now, and the Reds more payroll flexibility in a few years when they are actually ready to seriously contend
Post post post post post post post-hype sleeper.
Congrats on your $21.05 Million, Nick Martinez!
He will get more than that.
I highly doubt that. I’d think he’s a lock to accept the offer
not on a multi year. I think this is actually near market for him on a 1 year (maybe a hair light, but with the QO, no one wants to lose a good pick for a 1 year deal).
People are downplaying this guy. He was a 4 WAR player last year, and was a mid 3 ERA guy throwing a little over 100 innings the 2 prior years. He did not come out of nowhere. Since coming back from Japan, in 3 years he has around 350 inninings and an ERA in the low to mid 3s. Do i trust him to throw 180 innings next year- not really, but even 140 innings of 3.5 ERA ball is worth 20m these days.
Remember the guys we know are not very good but will throw 140-160 innings are going to get 8-12m, Guys like Kyle Gibson. So if you can start in the bigs, that is pretty much the FA floor. So 21m is not crazy even if you think he is an inning eating 4 vs. a solid 2/3 with a short track record (which i think most teams will view him as).
I think the real question is if he takes this, or ends up with something like 3 years for 48 million from someone else. With his age, no one is going past 3 years, and that may still be pushing it.
I agree, though a little less optimistic. I’m guessing $39M-$42M/3. There are a lot of similarities between him and Wacha, and Wacha got $51M/3, Wacha is more a pure SP, so he gets a premium, but their ERA+ and K/W are almost identical over the past three years.
Let’s suppose he thinks he could get three years and $36 million or just take the QO. I think he takes the QO but it may be a closer call than people think.
He’ll be 34. He’s taking the most guaranteed $’s which will certainly be more than $21 mill.
He should be able to do better than 12M per on an AAV. 2/~32 or 3/~42. If he thinks he can get that he should probably decline the offer.
!!
$21M for him? Is that what it’s come to?
Welcome to 2021!
He had a good year but I wouldn’t give him 21 million dollars for the next one. Considering this guy opts out of contracts like it’s his job I imagine he will take the 1 year deal
Huh?
No way he turns this down, and no way he would’ve gotten this in fa… why not just try tj resign him, explain it like I’m five
I am guessing the Reds want to keep him, but not with a multi year deal at the 15-18 million a year he may get on the open market. Maybe they figure he will walk for a multi-year deal and they get the compensation draft pick. If he picks it up, it’s only one year at deal that pays 3 to 4 million above what he would get on a longer contract. But I am a White Sox fan, I don’t know what a well run organization looks like so I may not be a good judge here lol
i think Ember is 100% spot on. 21m for 1 is about the same to most teams as 48m over 3 (at least guys getting 1 year deals in that range are guys we expect to get 45-50 over 3 and vice versa)..
If the long term on the table from the reds is 3 at 45m, this is just giving him that option, and and out if he wants to leave. I could see him flipped mid season for a back end of the top 100 prospect list if he is more or less what he was this year again. That is basically the haul you would get from a QO walk.
The Reds aren’t well run either. And only keeping him for 1 year probably doesn’t help them much….the key should be building for continual success.
Couldn’t they move him at the deadline for prospects if they are out of it this coming year?
“And only keeping him for 1 year probably doesn’t help them much”.
Actually, a one year contract for Nick Martinez gives Chase Burns time to get to the major leagues. Burns was the second overall pick in this year’s draft.
That’s great Bob, they’ll need more than Chase Burns though. They could use a top of the line starter on multiple years. As well as a couple of new outfielders, a backup catcher, and some relievers. Stop eating at Montgomery Inn and get on that.
Martinez was widely expected to get a 2 year deal in the $24-25 million range. The entire reason he opted out was to get another year, possibly two, added to his guarantee at the same AAV he made in 2024.
Widely expected by you maybe, but everyone else has him close to what Wacha got, 3/51.
Martinez should get a raise in AAV.
He made $14 million in 2024
Yep, Martinez made $14 Million in 2024 and his option was only $12 million in 2024. He pitched 142 innings in 2024, second only to Hunter Greene on the Red’s staff. I would argue he is worth even more to the Reds as they have difficulty attracting pitching free agents. Still, I don’t believe he will accept the QO.
This website reported that price. Its actually why I mentioned that specific number. Now they have him as taking the QO.
guys get 30-40% more in a 1 year deal vs a 3 year deal (ie 3 at 15m per is pretty close in expected return for the same guy doing a 1 year deal). Teams take more risk in long term deals- ie the player becomes terrible or gets hurt. So on a 1 year deal there is less risk…. but almost no one does this sort of thing over and over again (maxing out 1 year deals), i think that is what Scherzer is doing now, and is getting 40-50m per year, but no one is giving him 4 years for 200m, if he wanted 4 years he is going to need to lower to 120m (he is getting up there in age so i think the other thing is that he wants the option to hang it up at any time)
He rejects it. His AAV will be lower, but he will take the guaranteed longer money.
Plus he’s a boras client : / He will gamble
I’m glad they did. They have a low payroll. They will need him for the rotation. If he doesn’t accept, well, they get an extra draft pick.
He was solid for the Reds, and that’s nice salary for one year.
Spoiler alert, he’ll take the QO while throwing a party with his agent.
He will get more in terms of money(or at least very close) and years on the open market.
Especially from a large market.
i think this is the right ballpark for a 1 year deal, and he is 34, so long term is harder for him. I am not sure if any teams is going to value a 3rd year from him very much.
I could see him looking at 3 offers- 1 year 21m, 2 years for 38 million, or 3 years at 45 million…… So the total goes up, but most teams would be valuing year 1 in this ballpark, and year 2 with a healthy haircut, and year 3 as more or less a good reliever (21, 17, 7).
Can’t he also get additional money after next year?
Exactly my thoughts. With Burns and Petty close to the majors, the best scenario is he accepts and the Reds are not on the hook for but one year. The 2nd best is he signs elsewhere and they get the draft pick. If he signed for 3 years with the Reds for around 13 million per season, then that is probably ok as well.
$21M for one season of Martinez maybe doesn’t seem so outrageous coming off $16M for a season of Frankie Montas.
Montas was always a wild risk. I think they thought the floor was inning eater worth 8-12 (where most of the high 4 ERA innings eaters normally sign- Lyles, Gibson Ect) with the chance he rebounded to be way more.- but he failed to even live up to that floor.
At the time of the signing, that was at least what i thought- Montas must be healthy and they think they can get 160 innings, and are paying up a little since they think they may be 160 good innings if things break right for him
Could this be pressure for him to sign an extension? I’m not sure of the timeframe and rules, but the team seems to be saying “are you willing to bet on yourself for one year to retry free agency, or would you prefer the guaranteed years?” Especially at the age of 34.
he is not getting a super long deal either way. maybe a team is willing to go 3 years, this may just be a reflection of the cost of FA SP going crazy the past few years.
If you can throw 140 big league innings of non disaster ball (ERA under 5), then you can get 8m from someone. Even the better options from that heap of 5th starters that eat innings (so better bet to have 160 innings of 4.5 ERA/FIP ball ) are going for 12-14m on a 1 year deal. The top of the market for SP does not seem to be moving as much- but just big league innings are getting expensive.
I realize that. But, I bet the Reds are thinking “would you rather have 3/45, 1/21, or hope you can beat that with the QO attached?”
If you look at the contract just handed out to Wacha, Martinez will probably average about the same amoutn per year. So, offering him a QO at nearly 22 million a year is actually not far off or even potentially a fair yearly value for what he can do.. Does it make sense for the Reds? It does if they can pick up a draft pick (unless they throw out some cash this free agency period).
Wacha was a starter that made 29 starts. Martinez was mainly a reliever. All the models had Martinez picking up an additional year, some two, at the same AAV as the 1 year he had left on his deal with the Reds. 2/24 or 3/36. 1/21 is a huge jump up.
Wacha 166.2 innings 3.5 bWAR. Martinez 142.1 innings 4.0 bWAR. You need to revisit “your” models and figure out where they went wrong.
Martinez won’t accept, but at least the Reds will get a draft pick now.
@ Bobcastelliniscat,
That Q.O. hurts him on the open market. Who would opt to lose draft pick to sign him? He’s not your typical Q.O. candidate.
The Reds almost surely assume he’ll take the Q.O. because of the above and the high salary. They obviously want him back for one year or will try to work out multi-year extension soon.
the draft loss isn’t that bad if he signs for less than 50M$…which is likely. The ~70th pick in a draft isn’t that valuable in relation to a 3 year lockup of a good player.
The compensatory draft pick has a $50M threshold, but I think the penalty for the signing team is the same regardless of the contract value.
Negative….depends on revenue sharing. Big difference between a back 2nd round or back 3rd round pick.
The penalty depends on revenue sharing and luxury tax status. Not contract value.
My thought too until I saw he is w boras. Boras loves to gamble on the open market
I did not expect that
This is Martin Perez circa 2022.. great yr qualifying offer and sucked in 2023 to be non tendered
Not quite. Perez made 4M$ that season. Nick Martinez made 12M$ going into the decision. In addition Perez’s 2020 and 2021 seasons weren’t nearly as good as Martinez’s 2022 and 2023 seasons prior to the QO season.
Nick Martinez isn’t afraid to take a short deal and bet on himself.. I say he absolutely accepts it.
His profile matches a 3 year contract/$20 MM AAV, so the QO is just about $1 MM above market. Having said so, Scott is very likely to decline it.
No. It doesn’t. He was expected to receive a FA deal of around 2/24-25.
Seems a little out of the park, but time will tell.
Rotation is complete! Greene, Lodolo, Lowder, Abbot and Martinez with Burns coming in 2nd half. If Diaz continues to be a train wreck then Martinez can even close. Love the move! 20m for one year isn’t a long term or bad commit! I’d rather have Martinez for 1 year vs Wacha for 2 at the same price! Worse case we get a draft pick if someone does something silly with him! Brilliant move by the reds. I love it!
Take it Nick. You won’t get much more than that on a 2 year deal and this allows you to hit FA again next offseason without a QO hanging over your head.
I do not understand. We have so many question marks that 21 mil could have helped answer. Looks like Stuart Fairchild and Wil Benson will platoon.
Ridiculous.
I bet the Reds try to sign him to the same type of deal Wacha signed with KC, 3-51.
I love the move. The Reds have money to spend, even with their payroll. It’s a one year deal so it can’t hurt them long term. It allows time for Ashcroft and Burns to put it together. It will not likely affect them in their search for an outfield bat. Their payroll has been as high as 129Mish before the rsn issues. Even with this signing they are still under last years 90M. By 5M depending on who you ask.
It also will not affect signing young guys to long term deals.
PS, no I do not expect them to spend 129m.
PSS, or he rejects and moves on. Win Win
Attaway Nicky M! Cash it and have a great year
Word is that he is taking the QO this week.
The question is, will they do anything else or does Little Nicky have hand prints on his posterior for the third straight year?