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Nick Martinez

Reds Notes: Martinez, Offseason, De La Cruz

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Nick Martinez accepted the Reds’ $21.05MM qualifying offer this week, making him the lone player of the 13 who received a QO to accept that one-year deal. The two parties talked about a potential multi-year deal before the 34-year-old righty accepted, and while talks on a multi-year deal are reportedly on hold for now, Martinez suggested that he’s still open to such an arrangement and has received no indication from the club that talks won’t pick up down the line (links via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic).

“Accepting the qualifying offer doesn’t limit us from talking, so I’m definitely still open to it if that helps mitigate costs for this year or sign more guys,” Martinez said yesterday (via Rosecrans). Via Sheldon (on BlueSky), he added: “To my understanding, [discussing a multi-year deal] is still on the table.”

Martinez’s $21.05MM salary puts the Reds right back at their 2024 payroll level, per RosterResource’s projections. Reds COO Doug Healy said last week that the 2025 payroll would be “at or above” last year’s roughly $100MM level. A $21MM salary for Martinez doesn’t leave tons of wiggle room, and the Reds haven’t divulged just how far “above” that $100MM level they’d be comfortable spending. Working out a two- or three-year deal with Martinez that might reduce his 2025 salary would give the Reds more flexibility and also allow them to further extend their control over a player who president of baseball ops Nick Krall called a “great team guy” and a “lead-by-example guy.”

Prior to the Reds’ surprise decision to tender a QO to Martinez, MLBTR had penciled Martinez in for a three-year, $39MM contract on our annual Top 50 Free Agent rankings. The Athletic’s Tim Britton offered a very similar three-year, $40MM prediction. A deal in that range could allow the Reds to trim several million off Martinez’s 2025 salary — perhaps even more, if the team is willing to backload the deal so Martinez’s salaries are greater in 2026-27, when other contracts will be coming off the books. Emilio Pagán is earning $8MM in 2025 but is a free agent at season’s end. Jeimer Candelario is signed for two more years and earning more in ’25 ($15MM) than in ’26 ($12MM).

Among the Reds’ other goals in free agency are adding a bat to the lineup, deepening the bullpen and, per Sheldon, improving the team’s overall defense. Landing a corner outfield bat has long seemed like a viable target for the Reds, with Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar, Michael Conforto and Max Kepler among the non-Soto tier of free agent possibilities. Again, bringing Martinez back at a weighty price point complicates the pursuit of such hitters, but all should sign contracts that are within reasonable proximity to the Reds’ prior free agent thresholds. Cincinnati has in the past signed both Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas to four-year, $64MM free agent deals, for instance. Santander will very likely command a larger guarantee than that, but the others should come in at or below (well below, for Conforto and Kepler) that type of total commitment and/or annual value.

One other area of focus for the Reds this winter will be making incremental improvements to Elly De La Cruz’s already impressive game, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. One of the game’s most dynamic talents and still just 22 years old, the 6’5″ De La Cruz wowed with 25 homers, 67 steals and a .259/.339/.471 batting line while playing 160 games and spending every inning he was in the lineup at shortstop. Krall specifically voiced a desire to work with De La Cruz on whittling away at his 31.3% strikeout rate — a mark that’s already down a bit from his 33.7% rate as a 21-year-old in 2023.

Interestingly, Krall noted that “a lot of our guys” are in that same boat, perhaps foreshadowing one of the traits he’ll look for as he looks to bolster his lineup this winter. With regard to De La Cruz, however, both Krall and GM Brad Meador emphasized to Wittenmyer that even with a crowded infield mix and prospect Edwin Arroyo on the rise, De La Cruz is the team’s shortstop for the foreseeable future. Krall and Meador spoke of working with De La Cruz to tighten up his defense on routine plays and scale back outs made on the basepaths, though the team is surely thrilled with the overall quality of their budding star shortstop’s performance. De La Cruz is under club control for at least five more seasons and likely won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2026-27 offseason.

Nick Martinez Accepts Qualifying Offer From Reds

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Nov. 18: Martinez has now formally accepted the QO, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He adds an update to a prior report, adding that talks on a multi-year deal are not expected to continue.

Nov. 17: Veteran right-hander Nick Martinez is planning to accept the qualifying offer from the Reds, according to a report from Francys Romero. Martinez will remain with Cincinnati for the 2025 season on a one-year, $21.05MM deal.

Martinez, 34, was a somewhat surprising recipient of the QO after a strong inaugural season with the Reds. The right-hander joined the club on a two-year, $26MM guarantee last winter after both he and the Padres opted out of their simultaneous options for the 2024 campaign, making him a free agent. The deal with Cincinnati proved to be something of a coup for the Reds, as Martinez turned in an excellent 3.10 ERA and 3.21 FIP over 142 1/3 innings of work in a season that saw him split his time between the starting rotation and the bullpen.

While the righty posted utterly dominant numbers in relief, sporting a 1.86 ERA in 53 1/3 frames out of the bullpen, his 3.84 ERA across 16 starts saw him flash the ability to be a quality rotation piece. A closer look at Martinez’s work this season reveals that he struggled badly out of the rotation early in the year, with a 5.46 ERA through the end of April. He ended the year on a dominant note after returning to the rotation in early August, however, with a 2.42 ERA in 63 1/3 innings across 11 starts down the stretch. That excellent late-season performance could inspire more confidence in Martinez’s abilities as a rotation piece looking ahead to 2025, although it’s worth noting that his strikeout rate (22.5% vs 19.1%) and groundball rate (42.8% vs 33.7%) were both better out of the bullpen than the rotation this year.

Of course, part of Martinez’s value since returning to MLB following a four-year sojourn to Japan (where he posted a 3.02 ERA in 378 1/3 NPB innings) is his ability to shift from the rotation to the bullpen based on the needs of his team. The right-hander has worked as a swingman in each of the last three seasons, logging 184 innings across 35 starts in the rotation and and 175 innings over 117 relief outings. On the heels of a season that saw Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott all miss time due to injury, it’s easy to imagine the Reds placing additional value on Martinez’s flexibility as they attempt to map out a plan for their young rotation arms. That’s especially valuable given the presence of top prospect Rhett Lowder, who looked dominant in a late-season call-up but may not be ready to jump straight into a wire-to-wire big league season in 2025.

That combination of production and versatility convinced the Reds to extend Martinez the QO, even though $21.05MM constitutes a raise of more than $7MM over his 2024 salary. The sides reportedly discussed a multi-year extension in the days leading up to the QO deadline earlier this month, but did not ultimately come together on a deal. Given Martinez’s age, it’s likely that his earning power on the open market would be tamped down in any multi-year pact. That reality surely made accepting the QO an attractive option for Martinez, and that’s exactly what MLBTR predicted he would do in our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list.

While adding Martinez to the club’s pitching staff for 2025 is sure to improve the team, that hefty raise might cause some complications for the club’s budget. RosterResource estimates the club’s current payroll for 2025 to be just under $81MM. While the Reds are committed to a payroll “at or above” their 2024 level, the club spent just $100MM on payroll last year and the addition of Martinez’s $21.05MM salary would push the Reds to $102MM, just over that mark. Potential non-tender candidates like Santiago Espinal and Jake Fraley could help the club save a few million dollars here and there, but it seems as though Cincinnati will need to exceed their 2024 payroll by a notable amount in order to make further additions this winter.

As for the free agent market overall, this winter’s market remains deep in interesting mid-to-back of the rotation options even with Martinez off the board. Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, and Nick Pivetta are among the mid-rotation arms expected to pursue multi-year deals in free agency this winter, while bounce-back candidates like Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer could provide significant upside as they look to re-establish themselves on one-year, high-AAV deals similar to Martinez’s.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X, 13 players have received the QO and they are:

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

Reds Issue Qualifying Offer To Nick Martinez

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The Reds have issued a qualifying offer to Nick Martinez, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The QO is valued at $21.05MM. The right-hander declined a $12MM player option over the weekend to hit free agency for a fourth straight winter.

Wittenmyer reports that the Reds and Martinez have discussed a multi-year extension but haven’t gained much traction. Rather than risk losing him for nothing, Cincinnati made the surprising call to issue the QO. Martinez and his representatives at the Boras Corporation have until November 19 to explore the market before deciding whether to lock in what would easily be the highest salary of his career.

Martinez had an excellent first season in Cincinnati. The Reds signed him to a two-year, $26MM free agent deal. Martinez had pitched well over two seasons in a swing role with the Padres. He pitched in the same capacity for the Reds, starting 16 of 42 appearances. He logged a career-best 142 1/3 innings with a 3.10 earned run average. He has allowed fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine in all three seasons since returning from Japan during the 2021-22 offseason. Martinez showed pristine control (3.2% walk percentage) and did a fantastic job avoiding hard contact. That mitigated concerns about how he’d adjust to hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Strong as that production was, the QO is a gamble for a team that doesn’t run huge payrolls. Martinez is headed into his age-34 season and would likely be limited to a three-year deal even if he weren’t attached to draft compensation. There looks to be a good chance he accepts the offer. The Reds spent around $90MM on player payroll this past season. If they end up a similar range in 2025, Martinez’s salary would account for upwards of a fifth of their spending.

That’s a lot to commit to a swingman, though it’d be more reasonable if the Reds wanted to give Martinez a full-time rotation job. He has been better out of the bullpen, as one would expect, though he was quite good in either role. Martinez posted a 3.84 ERA with a 19.1% strikeout rate out of the rotation. He turned in a sparkling 1.86 mark while fanning 22.5% of opponents across 53 1/3 relief innings.

The QO qualifies as a major league free agent contract. Article XX(b) free agents like Martinez gain full no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season, so the Reds couldn’t deal him this offseason without his consent if he accepts the offer. Cincinnati wouldn’t have made the offer if they weren’t prepared to welcome him back at that price.

If Martinez finds a robust market and is still able to land a notable multi-year contract, the Reds position themselves to land draft compensation. In the unexpected event that Martinez lands a $50MM+ deal elsewhere, Cincinnati would get a pick after the end of the first round in 2025. The likelier outcome is that a contract would be for less than $50MM, entitling the Reds to a pick between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round. Another team would forfeit draft pick(s) and potentially international signing bonus space to add Martinez. The penalties vary depending on the signing team’s revenue sharing status.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Nick Martinez Declines Player Option; Brent Suter Re-Signs New Deal With Reds

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The Reds announced their full slate of option decisions for the 2025 season this afternoon. Right-hander Nick Martinez turned down his $12MM player option for next season. The Reds held a $3.5MM club option on lefty reliever and Cincinnati native Brent Suter, but rather than exercising it they’ve signed him to a new one-year contract with a club option for the 2026 season. He’ll be guaranteed $2.25MM and the option is worth $3MM, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that the Reds first paid the $500K buyout on Suter’s $3.5MM option for the upcoming season before re-signing him to the new terms.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati declined a $3.5MM option on catcher Luke Maile in favor of a $500K buyout, while right-hander Jakob Junis declined his end of an $8MM mutual option. He’ll be paid a $3MM buyout. Each of Martinez, Maile and Junis are now free agents.

Martinez, now 34, has shown a strong willingness to bet on himself when it comes to contracts. After pitching in Japan from 2018 to 2021, he has returned to North America and continually signed deals with opt-outs that he has triggered.

Going into 2022, he signed a four-year, $25.5MM deal with the Padres with the ability to opt-out after each season. He eventually triggered his first opt-out and re-signed with the Friars for 2023, a $26MM guarantee over three years with a convoluted club/player option structure. After the 2023 season, the Padres turned down a two-year, $32MM club option and then Martinez turned down his two-year, $16MM player option. He then signed a two-year, $26MM deal with the Reds that again allowed him to opt out after one season.

With the Padres before and with the Reds in 2024, Martinez oscillated between the rotation and bullpen. He got into 42 games this year, including 16 starts, tossing 142 1/3 innings with a 3.10 earned run average. His 20.4% strikeout rate was a bit below average but his 3.2% walk rate was elite. Among pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched this year, only George Kirby gave out free passes at a lower rate.

Both with the Padres and Reds, his results have been better out of the bullpen. This year, he had a 3.84 ERA as a starter but a 1.86 mark as a reliever. Whether he’ll be viewed as a reliever or starter will likely differ from club to club, but he should be able to top $12MM on the open market, making his decision to opt out a logical one.

Now the Reds will be able to issue him a qualifying offer and it has been suggested in some circles that they will consider it. Though Martinez is a solid contributor, it would be a bit of a surprise to see him offered a $21.05MM QO.

None of his previous contracts have had an average annual value higher than $13MM, so he would likely accept such an offer. The Reds have generally had payrolls just a bit above $100MM in most recent years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so Martinez accepting the QO would take up something approaching a fifth of their payroll. That’s a lot of money to commit to a swingman.

Suter, 35, has been a steady performer in the big leagues for close to a decade now. Debuting back in 2016, he now has a 3.45 ERA in over 500 career innings. He signed with the Reds in the offseason and gave them 65 2/3 innings with a 3.15 ERA. His strikeout rate wasn’t great but he demonstrated excellent control and his usual propensity for limiting damage. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate were both in the 96th percentile, according to Statcast.

His previous deal came with a $2.5MM salary for 2024 and a $500K buyout on a $3.5MM club option for 2025. As mentioned, the Reds gave him that buyout and worked out a new salary for the upcoming season, also securing a club option for ’26.

Maile doesn’t hit much but has a strong reputation as a defender and game-caller. That continued to be the case this year, as he slashed .178/.268/.252 but with solid work behind the plate.

The Reds are moving on today but could perhaps circle back to Maile at a lower price point. Tyler Stephenson is the only backstop on the 40-man roster now, so they will need to find a backup, whether that’s Maile or someone else.

Junis, 32, has generally had solid results in his career. However, his 2024 was largely held back by injury. He signed with the Brewers in the winter, a $7MM guarantee broken up into a $4MM salary and a $3MM option.

He went on the injured list early in the year due to a right shoulder impingement. His return from that injury was delayed when he was struck by a batted ball during BP. He eventually tossed 67 innings on the year with a 2.69 ERA, getting flipped from the Brewers to the Reds as part of the deadline deal that sent Frankie Montas to Milwaukee.

Going back to the start of 2021, Junis has thrown 304 1/3 innings with a 3.99 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate and should be able to secure himself a solid deal in free agency.

Nick Martinez Open To Staying In Cincinnati, Undecided On Opt-Out Clause

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Right-hander Nick Martinez is putting the finishing touches on a terrific first season with the Reds, having thus far compiled 134 1/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball with a 20.8% strikeout rate and superlative 3.3% walk rate. He’s signed through the 2025 season and slated to earn $12MM next season but has the right to opt out of the second season of his two-year, $26MM contract and test free agency for what would be a fourth straight offseason.

The 34-year-old righty recently told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon that he hasn’t made a decision or spoken with agent Scott Boras about his contract status while simultaneously expressing love for the Reds’ clubhouse and speaking fondly of his time in the organization. Martinez plainly stated that in spite of the opt-out opportunity, his mindset upon signing was that he was going to be in Cincinnati for multiple years. He’s bounced between starting and a variety of bullpen roles and said he’s on board with how he’s been used. He alluded to a “more delicate issue” that needs to be talked about in the offseason — a seeming nod to that looming opt-out provision and the clear reality that he’d be able to easily top the remaining one year and $12MM on his contract if he returned to the open market.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a lengthy look at Martinez’s opt-out and his ostensible comfort with going year-to-year in free agency as he continually improves his earning power. The 2011 Rangers draftee struggled through four big league seasons (2014-17) before reinventing himself in a breakout run with Japan’s Nippon-Ham Fighters and SoftBank Hawks. Since returning to North American Ball, he’s pitched three seasons between San Diego and Cincinnati, logging a collective 3.36 ERA in 351 innings. Martinez has filled virtually every role possible, working as a starter, closer, setup man, long reliever and bulk reliever behind openers.

A two- or even three-year deal should be available to Martinez this offseason, although the Reds will have some time to ponder a potential multi-year deal to keep the versatile righty from reaching free agency at all. Martinez opined that the Reds have the pieces in place to ascend to playoff contention next year and spoke glowingly about his teammates. He’s a valuable piece of the puzzle as things stand, capable of serving as a fourth or fifth starter behind Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott (all three of whom he specifically mentioned in expressing his optimism about the team’s future) or again operating as a pivotal swingman who can be called upon in any role.

Those three young arms are effectively locked into the top spots in the Cincinnati rotation. Top prospect Rhett Lowder, 26-year-old Graham Ashcraft and 23-year-old Julian Aguiar are among the other candidates for starting roles next season. The Reds could arguably use a veteran arm to help stabilize the rotation outlook, but not every viable starting option would be so amenable to being shuffled between the starting staff and bullpen as Martinez has been in recent years. It does make him a clear fit, even if his numbers are notably better in relief. The question for the Reds will be one of salary, as Martinez has pitched well enough to justifiably seek a raise over the two-year, $26MM terms to which he agreed last winter.

Cincinnati has about $27MM in guarantees on next year’s books, per RosterResource. That doesn’t include Martinez’s option, an $8MM Emilio Pagan player option or a $3.5MM club option on lefty Brent Suter that seems likely to be picked up by the team. The Reds will also have to weigh arbitration raises for Ty France ($6.775MM salary in ’24), Santiago Espinal ($2.725MM), Tyler Stephenson ($2.525MM) and Jake Fraley ($2.15MM), plus first-time arb-eligible players like Lodolo, Ashcraft, Alexis Diaz and Sam Moll.

The Suter option, arbitration raises and a slate of league-minimum players to round out the roster would put the Reds north of $60MM before even considering Martinez or any offseason expenditures. Cincinnati has opened the past two seasons with payrolls ranging from $82-100MM. Martinez could be deemed something of a luxury if ownership wants to keep payroll in that same range, though it’s not yet clear what type of payroll the club is comfortable fielding in 2025. The Reds will also be in the market for at least one veteran bat to upgrade the lineup. Adding to a bullpen could see as many as four relievers reach free agency — Martinez, Pagan, Buck Farmer, Justin Wilson — will also surely be a goal.

Nick Martinez’s Third Straight Opt-Out Decision

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In a couple months, Nick Martinez will need to decide whether to test free agency for what would be the fourth straight offseason. More than most free agents, Martinez has seemed to value flexibility. Since he returned to affiliated ball during the 2021-22 offseason after a stint in Japan, the right-hander has signed contracts that allow him to opt out after the first season.

In each case, Martinez has pitched well enough to take that opportunity. He provided the Padres with 106 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball in 2022. San Diego brought him back in free agency on a new three-year deal after he triggered the out clause. That came with another opt-out possibility, which Martinez took last winter after posting a 3.43 ERA through 110 1/3 frames.

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Reds Likely To Trade From Bullpen Depth

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The Reds are telling teams they plan to trade from their bullpen, report C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. That is not yet a signal about their deadline direction, though. According to the report, Cincinnati anticipates having a bullpen surplus as they expect Emilio Pagán and Ian Gibaut to return from the injured list next month.

Cincinnati has somewhat quietly had one of the better bullpens in the league. Reds relievers rank seventh with a 3.52 earned run average and are eighth with a 24.5% strikeout rate. The relief group had been a recurring problem before turning into one of the team’s strengths this year. Swingman Nick Martinez has thrived when working from the ’pen. Fernando Cruz has developed into one of the league’s better strikeout arms, while underrated lefty Sam Moll has continued to excel after coming over from the A’s at last year’s deadline.

The Reds don’t have a ton of maneuverability with their relief group. Cruz and Moll have locked down two spots with their performance. Closer Alexis Díaz has been inconsistent, but Cincinnati isn’t going to send him down. Justin Wilson, Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims all have the requisite service time to decline a minor league assignment. Cincinnati can’t option Tony Santillan back to the minors after selecting his contract two weeks ago.

That leaves one bullpen spot with a five-man rotation. Martinez is currently working from the starting five but could slide back to the ’pen once Carson Spiers returns from the injured list. That’d essentially complete the bullpen without having any obvious candidates to bounce between Great American Ball Park and Triple-A Louisville.

If they needed a fresh arm at that point, the Reds could designate someone for assignment. While Farmer has a 2.80 ERA over 45 innings, his strikeout and walk profile is pedestrian. Santillan had spent virtually the entire season in Triple-A, but The Athletic writes that the Reds view him as a key piece and would not want to put him back on waivers. Cincinnati could get Gibaut, Pagán and lefty Brent Suter back from injury later in the season.

While they’ll likely deal with other injuries along the way, the Reds obviously won’t be able to make any trades after next Tuesday. It seems they’re preemptively trying to get something in return for at least one or two of their relievers rather than lose players via waivers in August. The most obvious candidates for such a move are their impending free agents: Sims, Farmer and Wilson.

None of that trio would bring back a significant return. Sims, who is playing on a $2.85MM arbitration salary, has the highest ceiling of that group. He misses bats and has worked in a high-leverage capacity for the last few seasons, but he issues too many walks to be an in-demand trade chip. Sims is handing out free passes at a 13% clip over 33 frames this year after walking more than 15% of batters faced last season.

Wilson missed virtually all of 2022-23 because of Tommy John surgery and a lat injury. He returned this year with his typical velocity and has fanned more than a quarter of opponents with a 5.2% walk rate. A .365 average on balls in play has led to an unimpressive 4.85 ERA, but the 36-year-old is a fine option for teams seeking another left-hander in middle relief. Wilson is making a $1.5MM base salary.

Martinez is making $14MM this year and has a $12MM player option for next season. He’s pitching well, turning in a 3.88 ERA with excellent control over 72 frames. The fairly lofty salary and ’25 player option could lead teams to look elsewhere, though. It’s also not clear if the Reds want to deal Martinez, whose versatility they could value if they still anticipate making a playoff push.

General manager Nick Krall told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer yesterday that the front office had not decided on their overall deadline outlook. They’re five games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, yet they’re within 4.5 games of a Wild Card spot in a wide open National League. Cincinnati’s game against the Braves tonight was rained out. They’ll make it up with a doubleheader on Wednesday. They play a weekend set in Tampa Bay and one game against the Cubs before the deadline.

Krall: Reds Have Not Declared Themselves Sellers

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July 23: Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall pushed back on Morosi’s report, telling Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he’s had conversations with the majority of the league but has “not gone down one road that specific.”

Krall’s comments came on the heels of a Cincinnati victory over Atlanta last night. That win kept the Reds within four games of a Wild Card spot in the National League, albeit in an extraordinarily tightly bunched race. Though they’re only four games back, the Reds would need to vault past the Giants, Cubs, D-backs, Padres, Pirates and one of the Mets or Cardinals in order to move into Wild Card position. The Cubs are actually a half-game up on the Reds in the standings, and their own president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, publicly conceded just last night that his focus will be on 2025 and beyond.

The next few days will likely be pivotal for the Reds as they chart their course for the remainder of the season. They have two games left against the Braves, followed by three road games against the Rays. They’ll host the Cubs on the evening of July 29 — their final game before the July 30 deadline.

July 21: Back in early July, when the Reds were 41-45 and just a few games out of the NL Wild Card race, club GM Brad Meador suggested that the club was not yet ready to commit to a strategy for this year’s trade deadline. Flash forward to today, and fallen to a record of 47-53 after getting swept by the Nationals coming out of the All-Star break. It appears that recent performance may have been enough for the club to officially set course, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the club has begun to inform rival clubs that they are willing to part with players on expiring contracts.

It’s hardly a surprise that Cincinnati would limit any sell-off to rental pieces. After all, the club has an exciting core of young talent led by star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and right-hander Hunter Greene that figures to keep the Reds in the playoff conversation in the coming years, and this season has been complicated by injuries to key pieces such as Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, TJ Friedl, Brandon Williamson, and Graham Ashcraft. By maintaining that core of players as well as veteran pieces under longer-term control such as Jonathan India and Jeimer Candelario, the Reds can remain fairly well positioned to load back up for the 2025 campaign this winter and make another attempt at returning to contention.

The Reds’ list of pending free agents is a relatively short one, but it nonetheless has some interesting names. Right-hander Frankie Montas, whose $20MM mutual option for 2025 is all but certain to be declined, is perhaps the player with the most name recognition that the club could look to move. Righty Nick Martinez has a $12MM player option for 2025 and could also be made available, while outfielder Austin Slater (who the Reds acquired from San Francisco just two weeks ago), lefty Justin Wilson, and right-handers Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims will each see their contracts run out at season’s end.

According to Morosi, the Orioles are among the clubs to have interest in Cincinnati’s rental pitchers, including Montas and Martinez. The fit between Baltimore and either of those two pieces is somewhat obvious, as the Orioles have lost starters Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells to season-ending surgery this year. That’s left them to put together a patchwork rotation filled out by Dean Kremer and Albert Suarez behind front-end duo Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. At least one more playoff-caliber starter would make plenty of sense for the Orioles, and they would likely benefit from adding additional depth beyond that as well.

Whether Montas, 31, constitutes a playoff-caliber starter at this point in his career is up for debate. The righty has struggled badly with the Reds in 89 innings (18 starts) this year, posting a 4.85 ERA and 5.04 FIP which are both roughly 15% worse than league average. While Montas has allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of his 18 starts this year, blow-up starts have been a fairly frequent occurrence for the righty, including a combined 12 runs allowed in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Nationals and Rockies.

Bleak as his recent performance has been, Montas isn’t far removed from a stretch of mid-rotation success with the A’s from 2018 to 2022 where he posted 3.70 ERA and 3.61 FIP in 99 appearances. With that being said, it can’t be ignored that Montas underwent shoulder surgery back in February of last year. Since his return from going under the knife, his peripherals are those of a completely different pitcher. He’s struck out just 18.7% of batters faced after entering 2023 with a career 24.3% strikeout rate, and after allowing free passes to just 7.8% of opponents through the end of the 2022 season he’s watched his walk rate balloon to 10% since undergoing surgery. Even with those flaws, however, Montas’s track record as a quality mid-rotation arm could still certainly attract interest from pitching-hungry suitors.

Martinez, however, could prove to be the better fit for the Orioles’ needs. The right-hander has found a niche as one of the best swingmen in the game over the past three seasons with San Diego and Cincinnati, and this season the 33-year-old boasts a solid 3.88 ERA with an even stronger 3.15 FIP. While his 18.9% walk rate isn’t anything to write home about, he’s limited walks to a clip of just 3% this year while surrendering just six home runs in 72 innings of work. Martinez has been used primarily in relief this year, although he made five starts for the Reds early in the season and demonstrated the ability to move between the rotation and bullpen with relative ease during his time in San Diego. The veteran righty would offer the Orioles pitching depth for both the bullpen and rotation down the stretch, possibly working out of the rotation for the remainder of the regular season before moving into the bullpen during the playoffs.

Of course, Baltimore is far from the only club that could be interesting in the Reds’ available rentals. The Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, and Padres are among the other teams known to be in the market for starting pitching, while virtually every contender is typically on the prowl for rental bullpen help this time of year and could have interest in either Martinez in a relief role or a rental bullpen arm like Wilson, Farmer, or Sims.

2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

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We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

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