As a new week of the MLB offseason begins, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:
1. BBWAA awards finalists to be announced:
The Baseball Writers’ Association of America will reveal the top three vote-getters (a.k.a. the finalists) for each of their four major awards tonight at 5:00 pm CT on MLB Network. Those four awards are the Most Valuable Player, the Cy Young Award, the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year, and the Manager of the Year. The favorites for the MVP and Cy Young in each league are already quite clear, while the Rookie of the Year looks like a two-man race in both the AL and NL. Aaron Judge (AL) and Shohei Ohtani (NL) are the MVP frontrunners, and Tarik Skubal (AL) and Chris Sale (NL) are the Cy Young frontrunners. Colton Cowser and Luis Gil seem to be the two strongest candidates for AL Rookie of the Year, while Jackson Merrill and Paul Skenes are battling it out in the NL. Simply put, it will be a major upset if any of the above names are not included among the finalists.
Tonight’s announcement could be most eye-opening when it comes to the Manager of the Year competition, which is often harder to predict. Potential candidates include Stephen Vogt (CLE), Matt Quatraro (KCR), A.J. Hinch (DET), and Brandon Hyde (BAL) in the AL and Pat Murphy (MIL), Mike Shildt (SDP), Rob Thomson (PHI), and Carlos Mendoza (NYM) in the NL.
2. Marlins and McCullough to make it official?
ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reported on Sunday that the Marlins have hired Clayton McCullough as their new manager, but the team has yet to confirm the news. Fans can expect a formal announcement from Miami in the coming days, as well as a press conference to introduce the new skipper. For what it’s worth, the Marlins announced Skip Schumaker’s hiring in 2022 the same day the news broke, although he wasn’t officially introduced until the following week.
With McCullough’s hiring, all three managerial openings around the league have now been filled. However, there are still plenty of coaching roles available, particularly on McCullough’s staff in Miami. The Marlins have reportedly hired Pedro Guerrero to be their new hitting coach, but just about every other coaching job in Miami is still up for grabs.
3. Free Agent Prediction Contest closes tonight:
Get your picks in quick, because the annual MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest closes tonight at 11:00 pm CT. And if you’ve already submitted your answers, don’t forget that you can edit the form until the entry period closes. Click here to enter the contest now!
The goal is simple: Correctly predict where MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents will sign this offseason. The winner will receive a $500 prize, and there is a $300 prize for the runner-up and a $100 prize for the third-place finisher. Anyone who finishes in the top 15 will also receive a one-year membership to Trade Rumors Front Office. For more details about the contest, click here.
Last licks for the contest. I keep flip flopping on a few. Anyone know what the average for right guesses? Better yet, how have y’all faired? This is my first time despite being a long time reader.
I’m not sure of the exact average, but I would say it’s somewhere around 5 or 6.
I’ve ended up with either 6 or 7 each time I’ve done it. I like to keep an eye on the writers. I like to see if I can beat the writers. I can usually get most of them, but one or two will outscore me.
Canuck – 6-7 is really good, on the pod last week they said last year’s winner had 13 and nobody had 12. Steve had just 4 right, Darragh had just 3 right.
Hopefully some MLB players participate again this year.
I would like to take credit but it really just comes down to luck.
There’s just so much variance in what can happen.
Look at first base for the Yanks this off-season.
They’re moving away from Rizzo. They could sign either Alonso or Walker as a high priced replacement. If they are able to re-sign Soto though, they may choose internal options for first or a lower non-top 50 free agent, or they could fill first with a trade.
At the end of the day, it’s really just a fun guessing game, although it is nice to get a decent number right.
Canuck – Agreed, there is much luck involved. One wrong choice can have a domino effect on other selections, because many signings are contingent on other signings.
My favorite experience was Correa a few years ago. When he agreed to a contract with the Giants, I thought I missed on that one.
Then renewed hope as the Giants backed out …. until he agreed to a contract with the Mets.
But wait, there’s more …..the Mets backed out too, and who did he actually sign with? My pick all along, the Twins :O)
I had him going to the Giants, so I had the opposite reactions
This will change soon but right now it shows last year’s leaderboard:
mlbtraderumors.com/mlbtr-apps/free_agent_contest_l…
It’s a pretty good metaphor for how hard baseball is that one (1) guy out of some 1,500 or more entrants hit .271
It’s the same crapshoot in prospect development
It’s ridiculously hard and all lucky guesses, but at least based on teams needs/budget.
Sweet, thanks, Tim!
If someone would just stick with Mets/Yanks/SF and Dodgers you get at least 10.
It sounds easy, but I feel like we give those teams too much cred. Especially LA, they can’t sign every big name and won’t. NYY, my team, hasn’t in a long bit either so that variable works into it. I mean, for NY at least I’m going with the picks I want to see bases on needs, but I don’t think I can guess that with every team. I don’t get paid for that level of research.
I was (mostly) kidding. Best of luck to you Salzilla and anyone else playing. A lot of knowledgeable posters here so should be a good contest.
I agree that Judge, Ohtani, Skubal, Sale, Cowser, Skenes, and Merrill are all frontrunners, but I could totally see Langford, Abreu, or Wells finishing ahead of Gil in AL RoY.
I find it really tough to compare pitchers and position players. I can look at Langford and Cowser and compare their offensive and defensive numbers and determine which is better. Comparing them to Gil is tricky though.
Can’t picture Wells finishing ahead of Gil. He had a great start but a brutal finish. His finish was so bad I doubt he has the starting position locked up for next season.
It’s fair to wonder if Wells simply hit the rookie wall. It was his first full major league season and he’s a catcher to boot. That can really be physically draining, and it’s not unusual for rookies to struggle at the end of their first full season.
Skenes should be 2nd in CY and 1st in ROY.
Agree
I’ve got Merrill for RoY. He played a full season at an everyday position. Skenes was better but not a full season and only every 5th day after that
Merrill had 593 PA, Skenes faced 514 batters, a 15% advantage for Merrill but nowhere near a 5:1 ratio as implied, or at least inferred.
That difference certainly is a factor, as well as the number of defensive plays they were involved in and the quality of their defense matters, and Merrill gets credit for his baserunning skills.
Merrill was a very good player for the entire season while Skenes was excellent in 4-1/2 months. It’s a reasonably close call, though I’d pick Skenes.
Nope, Zack Wheeler should be second.
ohyeadam: This is why there should be separate awards for pitchers and everyone else. You can’t fairly compare their numbers. There is a separate award for relief P of the year, why not starters? It’s very possible that Skenes will come away empty handed. And if it seems that’s one award too many, as long as MLB gets sponsorship, they’ll do it.
Sasaki’s availability really screws up the contest because we have to decide which of the 8 pitchers going to the Dodgers he’ll replace :D.
I could go 50/50 on A.L. ROY, but I predict it will go to Cowser.
let – I admit I’m slightly biased, but Abreu deserves it more than Cowser.
He has the higher WAR, the higher OPS, and the Gold Glove.
Granted the AL rookie class was much weaker than the NL.
As for Gil, I guess I could accept his winning it because so few pitchers have put up an ERA of 3.50 or less with at least 29 starts.
Abreu had the higher OPS but not the OPS+ which factors in parks and other things. Abreu benefited from playing in Fenway.
Fangraphs has a different perspective on the WAR valuation, giving Abreu a 3.1 WAR to Cowsers 4.0
Abreu had 7 outs above average, all in right field
Cowser has 8 OAA in left, 1 in center and 1 in right, 10 in total.
Abreu was great, but it’s not hard to see why Cowser could get the nod.
Canuck – Yes I see your point. I knew Cowser had the better OPS+ but I’ve never been sold on the accuracy of any stat that takes into account Park Factor. It’s hard for me to reconcile with Fenway being favorable to lefthanded hitters. Abreu’s strength is pulling the ball, Fenway is a horrible place for doing so, which would explain his having fewer homeruns at Fenway despite more PA’s there.
If there’s Park Factor with L/R splits I’d love to see it.
Also if ballparks are factored in, why isn’t Abreu’s defense higher given he plays RF in the hardest park there is?
So far as I know, ballparks are factored into the main defensive metrics.
Also, who says RF in Fenway is the hardest there is.
I would think center with that weird notch would be tough. RF is mostly just big with a slightly odd corner.
So much love for Alex Cora for manager of the year, how come he’s not listed? lol
Error in Judgement will probably drop the MVP trophy when they hand it to him. Clunk.
…and Wander Franco has been arrested again…
Unbelievable. Next, he’ll be eating the dogs, he’ll be eating the cats.
Bart: Then he’ll be deported back to the DR. Oh, wait. He’s already there. What a waste of talent.
What a waste of a life.
Franco is a massive scumbag. Justice is coming for him.
Trade Rumors should not censor his discussion. It gives cover to a monster by not allowing the public to discuss and expose him.
I’d prefer they forget he exists. It’s not like he’s got anything to do with baseball anymore
Branch,
You can discuss Franco in lots of places just not here because this private business has decided to close comments. It’s not a freedom of speech or censorship issue, it’s a business decision.
If you’ve seen Juan you’ve seen’em all. Ahahaha!
I hope my AI randomized MLB team list results in a few hits.
I think Sale will win and should win the NL cy young, but, Zack Wheeler should be given his props too. He had a fantastic season and is a joy to watch on the mound, even as a lifelong Braves fan.
Jesse: I think Sale has waited long enough. Not just that, but I think he definitely earned it.
How Wilyer Abreu is not rookie of the year in AL will baffle me.
And of course the Dodgers will be in the market for a new first base coach. I understand Don Mattingly is available.
Let’s go! Hope Schildty and Jackson “Barrel” can win their respective catagory! Go Pads
Are those prizes in Canadian or US Dollars?