On the heels of a notable early-morning signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Soto beginning to take offers?
The early part of the offseason has been littered with reports about teams meeting with or planning to meet with superstar outfielder Juan Soto. The Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Dodgers are all known to have met with Soto at this point. The Phillies were reportedly planning to meet with the slugger as well. Other teams, including the Giants and Royals, are known to have at least checked in on Soto, but the star’s free agent process is seemingly moving past the introductory stage as a report yesterday indicated teams are expected to start making offers this week. Given that Soto’s contract is widely expected to mark a new record in terms of net-present value, the coming stage of the process could quickly weed out teams that were remaining involved in hopes that Soto’s market would prove softer than some of the sky-high numbers thrown around so far. Could things begin to progress quickly for Soto once he begins receiving offers?
2. Non-tendered players enter the free agent pool:
Friday night saw a number of interesting players enter the free agent pool after being non-tendered by their clubs. These players generally occupy the lower tiers of free agency, as teams with substantial interest in them at their arbitration price point could have just traded for them in the days leading up to their non-tender. That said, interesting players such as Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Woodruff, and Cody Bellinger have found themselves in the non-tender pile in recent years. This year’s class lacks that sort of big name talent, but longtime Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano, Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan, Angels starter Patrick Sandoval (recovering from Tommy John surgery), and former Mariners infielder Josh Rojas are among the intriguing potential options that are now available to teams. Romano was an All-Star in 2022-23 before injuries ruined his 2024 season. Finnegan was an All-Star this past season but struggled through an awful final two months of the year.
3. What’s next for the Royals following the India trade?
Over the weekend, the Royals and Reds got together on a previously-rumored trade that sent Brady Singer to Cincinnati in exchange for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer. Wiemer’s fit in Kansas City as a short-side platoon partner for center fielder Kyle Isbel is a fairly straightforward one, but the acquisition of India is a bit more complicated. India is seemingly poised to play everyday as a potential leadoff option for the club ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, but it remains to be seen how the club’s defensive alignment will shake out now that both India and incumbent second baseman Michael Massey are in the mix.
Both India and Massey have played second base almost exclusively in the majors, but India came up as a third baseman and both players could surely handle either left field. Is a position change in the cards for either player headed into Spring Training, or are there more deals on the horizon that could clarify the club’s infield picture? Maikel Garcia and Massey were the club’s primary options on the infield alongside Witt and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino last year. Could Garcia or Massey be relegated to a utility role or even on the move in a future deal to upgrade the club’s questionable outfield mix now that India is in the fold?
Best comment I’ve seen about the Red Sox pursuit of Soto is that they’ve “suddenly found religion”.
Amazing how it always happens when people hit rock bottom, or in the Red Sox case when their financials crater.
The Red Sox’ financials cratered? Hardly. Better than ever, far as I can tell. Their ownership also owns their broadcast station, NESN, which is successful. And the Sox aren’t even the biggest sports asset they own (they are own Liverpool, the #1 team in the English Premier League).
Fenway Sports Group has holdings all around — Red Sox, Liverpool FC, Pittsburgh Penguins, RFK Racing, NESN, plus the Penguins’ RSN.
As a Liverpool fan I would say FSG have done a good job. But if they don’t sign Salah to an extension, I might just change my opinion. btw, LeBron James owns a small piece of the team.
Red Sox ratings on NESN are down sharply. I’m sure FSG is doing fine, but their investment in the Red Sox is lagging.
@Seamaholic
In terms of revenue generated, Liverpool FC is 5th behind both Manchester clubs, Chelsea & Arsenal.
Seam – Wait until the numbers come out in April, you’ll see.
Last year revenue dropped from $513M to $500M and operating income from $72M to $62M. I said Red Sox, not FSG. Not counting other entities.
As far as you can tell? What does that mean?
So you’re not aware of how much the NESN ratings have crashed?
Red Sox had a 4.18 rating in 2021, the last time they were competitive.
Went down to 2.65 in 2022, and down further to 2.64 in 2023, then down even further this year to 2.47 (see if you can figure out the percentage it’s down from 2021).
And not related to Red Sox, but the Bruins having another awful season hasn’t helped NESN either.
If Kajunki is worth 63 million, a large amount of teams are in trouble.
coop – If I’m Severino or Pivetta, I’m LMAO at those who said of them “OMG he’s crazy, he should have accepted the QO”.
@Fever Pitch Guy
Pivetta has similar SIERA, FIP & xERA to Kikuchi, so he could ask for a similar deal but Severino is pitching worse than his actual ERA suggests, so some regression is coming for him. I wouldn’t offer him similar money to what Kikuchi got.
York – I totally agree, I’m just saying they are definitely worth more than $21M total.
@Fever Pitch Guy
But that’s exactly what Kikuchi signed for per year. If they had taken the QO, it would have just been 1 year at $21M but still the same amount per year. But I understand, these guys want more than 1 year. Given that Kikuchi just signed a 3 year deal, I could see a case being made for Pivetta but not for Severino. I feel bad for the team that signs him.
York – I’m thinking a 3-year contract for a total of $45M for Pivetta and a 2-year contract for a total of $35M for Severino.
@Fever Pitch Guy
Thank you for clarifying.
@Fever Pitch Guy
Hey, you know how you like bugging me about making fun of Nerds destroying baseball? Well, in the Angels-Kikiuchi thread, Zonedeads writes:
“Nothing about him is above avg. you can bring up any bs stat you want but his actual stats he posted for his career says he’s trash”.
York – Haha …. I don’t like bugging just you, I will point out to anyone the over-reliance and misuse of any stat ;O)
Severino’s results weren’t too crazy different than his peripherals, and even so, he still pitched very effectively. High groundball rate combined with low barrels and a low hard hit rate led to an almost elite job at limiting opponent exit velocity.
Kikuchi topped expectations by a bit, so I’ll take the “over” on those numbers, Fever.
tff – On each of Pivetta and Severino?
On Pivetta at least, I haven’t looked at Severino closely. No interest. Maybe $51M to $54M on Pivetta?
tff – Yeah could happen.
@cooper-shill
You act like kikuchi is the worst pitcher on the market, hes one of the best guys you could have gotten.
He’s a great 3-4 guy, who’s shown flashes of being a 2-3.
“cooperhill” is the same doofus who posts these “Print those playoff tickets!” comments on nearly every minor-league signing, so no surprise he shows his ignorance on pitchers like Kikuchi.
That’s about right. Consistent with about $7m per WAR, maybe even a little less.
Yeah, that’s pretty much market rate for a league-average starting player. Especially a starting pitcher.
That is almost exactly what this website said he would sign for.
India was a 3B in college and when he began in the minors. The Reds moved him to 2B. Garcia’s.281 OBP might have been the reason to acquire India and have him play 3B with Massey staying on 2B
Yeah I’m not sure why everyone is thinking India will be at 2b, it seems pretty evident that he was aquired to be the 3b.
If the Royals do end up benching Massey for him, this trade makes absolutely no sense.
Jonathon India is very underrated.
Yes. He’s better than Singer is likely to be, by a fair margin. But the Reds have a lot of middle infielders.
Singer is a starter with under 4 ERA potential and India is a guy who’s ops is below 750 in Cincinnati (the hitters park)
I actually like India since an ops in the 700s is decent for a 2nd baseman but singer has a lot of value…
I have to wonder what Singers era will be in Cincinnati. I’m guessing a healthy above 4.00
I think Melendez gets moved for a reliever and prospect.
A reliever prospect in A ball maybe. He’s doesn’t have a position and can’t hit
India was moved to 2B to accommodate the ill-fated Mike Moustakas deal, it’s not like with enough preparation he couldn’t slot back in at 3B
Rumblings have Massey living to LF to accommodate his balky back. India would slot in at 2B and Garcia stays at third and his lower in the order.
It seems like a team such as the Royals would be a match for Soto. They had the right players to make the playoffs last year and a superstar like Soto could take them to the next level, the World Series. Plus the attendance would skyrocket to capacity. If the team owns parking and concessions, that would be enough money to pay 50MM+ per year.
Then again, who wants to live in KC playing for a team that is not committed to winning every year.
The question should be “Is Soto beginning to receive offers?” Once he takes an offer, the deal is done.
The soto market is simple
new york and new york
No one can outbid cohen so mets clearly favorites
I believe Soto will sign either with Yankees or Mets because both of them throw money at literally everything that moves.
As a Nats fan, I would like us to find a great reliever to replace Finnegan as our closer.
And to conclude my comment, India could phase out Massey or Garcia. We’ll have to see what KC does with him.
Michael Massey is the trash can emoji. Why would KC consider him part of the future?
Both players can remain at second. India can DH at leadoff with Massey at second when Salvy catches. When Salvy or Vinny DH India can play second with Massey available off the bench. Beyond needing a leadoff hitter the Royals needed quality depth at second due to Massey’s recurring back issues.
It looks like there a few teams that need a starting shortstop and a very thin crop of free agents. I think the Royals will shop Garcia to the teams that still need a shortstop once Adames comes off the market. Hopefully one of those teams has an abundance of mediocre corner outfielders to choose from.
Rumors floating that Soto might be willing to do a long term with opt outs in years 3 and 4 of the deal, if that’s the case, Dodgers are DEFINITELY in, if those rumors are false, it’s easily down to the two NY teams!
Yankees should try to restructure the contracts of their high earning stars. They could defer some money to make room for Soto, Snell and Santander. I think Judge, Stanton, Cole and Rodon would accept that. Signing Soto won’t be enough.
Even if some players agree, the MLBPA will take issues because it lowers the present day value of their contracts. ARod tried doing that prior to his trade from the Rangers and the union disapproved. Their job is to keep raising the bar for player salaries.
Do the Red Sox wanted him to defer money?
So there’s two schools of thought at play here. One is to not disrespect Soto by making a lowball offer But the other thinking is I don’t want to make my first offer be too high because we all know that Soto’s camp is never going to take a first offer. They’re going to ask for more and more. So you don’t want the floor to be 600M.
Pretty sure the floor is $600M, whatever you bid.
Tf – If teams start at $600M that doesn’t leave much room to go. I think he ends up there, $50M annually for 12 years.
For the teams that have met Soto, I’m sure they’ve discussed a general framework of a contract with Soto. Now it’s filling in the dollar figures so I doubt there will be lowball offer submissions.
i’ve seen comments questioning his age is there actual evidence that he’s older than his stated age?
Those comes from the pitchfork crowd who are always trying to put down players and exclaim over-pay for every new contract. We’ve heard it all for players like Soto, Ohtani, Judge, Lindor, Snell, Alonso, etc.
figured thanks
Pujols, Jose Abreu……….
No. People are being morons. They are just questioning SOME players from the DRs age and not others.
Dasit – To give a more complete answer, age fraud for Dominican players is a huge problem right now. It’s well documented.
nytimes.com/athletic/5231394/2024/01/27/mlb-age-fa…
Proving the fraud is very difficult, and of course MLB will never disgrace a superstar player if they don’t have to.
So no, there’s no proof of Soto’s age. But as you stated, it’s fair to question just like it’s fair to question whether certain players are using steroids.
My brother in law sent me this from the Padres Reddit.
reddit.com/r/Padres/comments/1gzt391/saw_this_on_t…
I like some of the ideas he has and don’t like trading Cronenworth, especially sending money with him. Padres fans, what do you think? Would you do any of these? Would it help the team win more games in 2025?
cronenworth has the underrated health tool. the kind of player you take for granted until he’s gone
This is only part of the equation: “teams with substantial interest in them at their arbitration price point could have just traded for them in the days leading up to their non-tender.” There could be a quite a few interested clubs ‘at or near the arbitration price point’, yet not interested when they also have to send a player in return, thus upping the cost.