Today: The Red Sox have officially announced Crochet’s extension. The full breakdown was reported by Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Crochet gets a $4MM signing bonus followed by a salary of $24MM next year. He then gets $28MM annually from 2027 through 2030, followed by $30MM in 2031. Per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, there’s also a $15MM conditional club option for 2032 if Crochet misses 120 days due to a significant arm injury. His opt-out after 2030 would also be void if such an absence occurs before then.
March 31: The Red Sox have reportedly reached agreement with new ace Garrett Crochet on a six-year, $170MM extension that goes into effect in 2026. The CAA client can opt out after the 2030 season. The deal, which does not have any deferred money, includes an additional $10MM in escalators based on Cy Young finishes and a $2MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade, though there is not any no-trade protection.
Crochet, who turns 26 in June, was on track to hit free agency after the 2026 season. The extension leaves unchanged his $3.8MM salary for this year. It buys out his final arbitration season and five free agent years, though the opt-out means it “only” extends the team control window by four seasons.
Boston acquired Crochet in one of the offseason’s biggest trades. They packaged four prospects, including their two most recent first-rounders Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery, to land the All-Star lefty from the White Sox. Crochet had seemed likely to move at last summer’s deadline until a late revelation that his camp was seeking an extension if he were to continue pitching through a playoff race.
Crochet was wrapping up his first full season as a starting pitcher. The 6’6″ southpaw threw a total of 132 innings in college at Tennessee. His draft year was cut short by the cancelation of the 2020 college season. The White Sox selected him 11th overall and fast-tracked him to the big leagues as a reliever. Crochet pitched well in that role for his first year-plus but blew out his elbow in Spring Training 2022. He underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him that season and limited him to 12 2/3 innings the following year.
By the time he’d returned from the Tommy John rehab, the White Sox were in full rebuild mode. They took the high-upside play of giving Crochet a chance to start going into 2024. They probably didn’t expect him to pitch as well as he did. Crochet’s stuff was still overpowering as a starter. He struck out 35.2% of opposing hitters en route to a 3.02 ERA in 107 1/3 frames through the All-Star Break. Chicago dramatically pulled back his workload after the trade deadline. While they kept him on a regular rotation schedule, the White Sox limited him to 2-4 inning appearances for the final two months of the season. That was a prudent approach to keep him healthy after essentially two straight lost years.
Crochet finished the year with a 3.58 ERA across 146 2/3 innings. He struck out 209 hitters while issuing only 33 walks. No other pitcher with at least 100 innings posted a better strikeout rate than his 35.1% mark. On a per-pitch basis, only Blake Snell got more swinging strikes. Crochet’s already impressive ERA was probably a bit inflated by pitching in front of a poor White Sox defense. His swing-and-miss ability pointed to ace upside so long as he could maintain his stuff while working a regular starting workload for a full season.
The Red Sox clearly believe that’s realistic. They parted with a decent amount of prospect talent to acquire Crochet’s final two years of arbitration eligibility. They almost immediately opened extension conversations. Unlike last summer, there was never any doubt that Crochet would pitch into October this year (so long as he stays healthy) regardless of whether a deal got done. Crochet indicated he’d table discussions come Opening Day. That’s a common refrain among players, but it’s not unheard of for players to back off that self-imposed deadline if there’s only a narrow gap as the regular season begins.
Crochet made his first start in a Boston uniform in the interim. He worked five innings of two-run ball with four strikeouts against Texas on Opening Day. While nothing got done last week, he told WEEI’s Rob Bradford on Friday that talks had gone “to the wire” and said that boded well for whenever they reopened discussions. They were evidently close enough to continue communications and get the deal done.
It will not have any impact on this year’s payroll calculations. Crochet is making a modest salary, as his arbitration earning potential had been limited by his lack of innings. That’ll jump beginning next year. The specific salary structure has not been reported, but the contract will count for roughly $28.33MM against Boston’s luxury tax ledger each season from 2026-31.
Crochet would likely have earned something in the $8-10MM range for his final year of arbitration. The Red Sox are valuing the would-be free agent seasons around $32MM annually. That’s a similar range to what Snell commanded in terms of net present value on his five-year free agent deal with the Dodgers. Corbin Burnes got $35MM per season on a six-year deal with Arizona, while Max Fried received a $27.25MM annual value and got eight years from the Yankees. The Red Sox valued Crochet’s free agent years the way they would for a #1/2 type starter.
Crochet technically sets a new standard for starting pitcher extensions in the 4-5 year service bucket. Jacob deGrom’s $120.5MM deal with the Mets from six years ago had been the only nine-figure contract for a pitcher in that service class. Crochet easily topped that. Still, his extension arguably fits better in the 5-6 year service bracket, since it doesn’t go into effect until his final year of arbitration. Nine-figure contracts for pitchers in that class are more common, but Crochet still handily beats the recent guarantees for Luis Castillo ($108MM) and José Berríos ($131MM).
This is the fifth significant contract that the Sox have on the books for at least two years beyond this one. Alex Bregman will make $40MM annually through 2027, though he can opt out after each of the next two seasons and a good portion of his money is deferred. Rafael Devers is signed through 2033 on salaries ranging from $27.5MM to $31MM. Trevor Story will make $25MM per season between 2026-27, assuming he doesn’t opt out next winter. Masataka Yoshida is under contract for $18.6MM annually for another two years.
It’s a risky move for the Red Sox, one that reaffirms their belief that Crochet will be a top-of-the-rotation starter for years to come. They’re buying what they expect to be his prime, as he’s signed from ages 26-32. If he stays healthy and lives up to the ace potential, Crochet could opt out before his age-32 season and potentially command another five- or six-year contract.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Red Sox and Crochet agreed to a six-year, $170MM deal beginning in ’26 with the opt-out and no deferred money. Robert Murray of FanSided was first with the $10MM in escalators, which Mark Feinsand of MLB.com specified were based on Cy Young placement. Feinsand had the assignment bonus and absence of no-trade protection.
Image courtesy of Chris Tilley, Imagn Images.
If crochet gets 170 then how much can skenes get?
17 billion
With opt outs…
I’m sure Reinsdorf would have topped that, if Crochet stayed. LOL.
And No Trade Clause.
With opt-outs after every start.
Each of which comes with a multi-billion dollar buy out.
Wow even Ricketts might have gone that high.
6 120 for Skenes. It’s tuff to stay in Pittsburgh for 2 free agent years but it’s 120 million.
He did not get a no trade clause
Not even close.
If Pittsburg offered skenes 120 then he would walk right out the door to sign for 400 mil with the dodgers
I could still see nutting shell out an extension but it depends on how big of a pay cut skenes would take
Skenes can’t walk anywhere. He either signs extension with Pirates or stuck there for 4 or 5 years making minimum wage. 50 million ain’t bad minimum wage as long as he stays healthy. But it’s not 120 130 million guarantee.
I could see skenes taking that offer to buy out his arbitration.
It’s guaranteed money and security up front that insures generational wealth without worrying about injury.
I’m willing to bet skenes misses at least a year and a half due to injuries over the course of his current team control.
That could really hamper his earning potential through arbitration.
And if he gets through that contact intact, he could sign a 400-500 million dollar contract as a free agent in 6 years
But I see an almost zero percent chance that Pittsburgh would even entertain extending him at this point
Skenes would laugh at that offer maybe harder than I am currently.
@Raven – I’m sure that alone just gave every agent an idea of what to ask for next. Love it.
He wouldn’t laugh. He would have to think hard on it. It’s a generous industry standard contract. For anyone who wants to guarantee taking care of their family for life it’s a easy yes. If you are greedy or into risk you reject it.
After seeing Oviedo go through tj recovery from fall 2023 and still in IL and Jones go on IL. No better time to talk extension.
Skenes isn’t an industry standard pitcher. He’s miles better than Jones, or Oviedo. His family is already taken care of, he signed 9.2million, and his girlfriend is reportedly worth $6M. He could never make above league minimum and be worth more than all 388 commenters on this article plus some.
Skenes would laugh at anything that doesn’t touch $200M. Think Wheeler’s AAV but Crochet’s years. Skenes is looking in the 6/252 or 5/210 range undoubtedly. And when the Pirates don’t give it (obviously) the Dodgers and Mets will be on lines 1 & 2.
You forgot Ricketts. HAHHHHH Heeee Hoooo, April Fools!
Skenes is looking in the 6/252 or 5/210 range undoubtedly.
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He can’t get that. His salary for years 3-6 is going to be $65M. He isn’t getting another $145M for one more year, $187M/2.
It’s not even something his agent would ask for.
He’s getting more than 65m in arbitration years. He will be setting a new record every year in arbitration.
How much do you value each year of ARB earnings then? In arb 1 he isn’t going from 1m to 35m in a single jump…
Skenes: I want 20 million.
Nutting: We’ll give you 2 million.
Skenes: See you at the hearing Scrooge. Now I want 25.
Skenes getting 5/210m starting in 2026 would buyout 1 (one, uno) year of free agency.
Your comment is dumb.
Only if they get a new owner or it will be 5 years/ 20 bucks
Deferred money until 2426 by the Dodgers.
A lot! Skenes will not finish his career as a Pirate.
As for this deal, Crochet has an excellent arm and potential, but this is a huge bet on his ability to scale innings, maintain his stuff, and stay healthy. All three have to happen to make the deal work. I’d bet against it.
Lord – I’m ambivalent as to whether he will make the deal work, but without question this is a very high risk signing.
So Crochet demanding an extension by the end of ST was just a bluff, not surprised there. As I mentioned before I WAS surprised that he would bet on himself by risking injury or poor performance this season. But he didn’t, it was Chris Sale all over again in terms of signing an extension quickly.
One thing is certain, if Crochet continues to be a 3.60 ERA 5-inning pitcher or has further injury issues it will be quite the overpay and someone – possibly Breslow – will pay the price for it.
BTW – Did ya see Pivetta’s first start with the Padres? Why can’t we get starting pitchers like that! LOL!!
Chris Sale did come to mind. Talented but injury risk.
Lord – It was a very similar situation. Coming off major injury and durability concerns after the 2018 season, the Sox rushed to extend him the following ST because it was the last year of arbitration for him. Everyone at the time thought it was a “great deal” because it was below perceived market value. We all know how that extension worked out.
The usual reason for announcing a deal in the first week it to avoid taking the luxury tax hit on the current season. I expect they had a deal largely in place a week ago and just waited to finalize it.
All pitching signings are either high risk deals or low return deals. This one is not out of line for an ace pitcher.
Wait – Timing had nothing to do with this year’s LT hit, it’s based solely on when the extension begins.
Rafaela’s extension was finalized April 10, 2024 but because it began with the 2024 season it hit the CBT 2024 payroll.
Raffy’s extension was finalized January 4, 2023 but didn’t begin until 2024 therefore it did NOT impact the 2023 CBT payroll.
I know, I’m a fountain of knowledge. LOL
He’s not a proven ace that has pitched 30 starts or 180+ innings or been pressed to pitch innings in the postseason either.
He has upside, lots of it, and causes for concern as well.
It’s a good deal for Boston if he proves himself capable, but I see it as a huge risk for Boston.
I am glad that my Phils did not take the risk on trading two premium prospects plus plus for Crotchet (along with the risky extension that it would have taken) no matter how it turns out.
The Red Sox deserve the kudos if it works – premium pitching is so hard to find. But this is a less secure risk than most with the lack of track record and injury history. I hope that he stays healthy for Boston’s sake.
Yeah, I think the rules on that may have changed with the last CBT. I’m outdated as usual.
Regardless, it doesn’t bother me. Deals like this take a while to put together, so I’m confident that most of the work was done during (or before) ST.
People like to focus on the monetary risk, but the money is manageable. The real risk is that the talent you’ve accumulated doesn’t perform — and if Crochet isn’t the ace that they need then they really don’t have an answer. By signing him they at least give him a chance to be that ace.
Yes, they could in theory let him walk and sign the next Max Fried, but I’m not at all confident that the deal would be either cheaper or less risky. Tough to get an ace for $170M.
The Phillies have one of the elite rotations in the game. The Red Sox desperately needed that ace after years of underinvesting in top pitching.
Wait – I think the real risk is his prior health issues and lack of proven durability.
Time will tell. I don’t like to make predictions, this contract could go either way.
A strong performance tomorrow over at least 6 innings would be nice …. and by strong I mean 2 ER or less, I don’t care about strikeouts.
“Proven durability” is overrated. Sale and Price came to the Red Sox with “proven durability”. Statistically it makes some difference but less than you might think. All pitchers are high risk, and if you sign a top arm to a 7 year deal you are happy if he stays on the field for four of those.
The flip side of that is teams would fall all over themselves to pay $50M/year or more for a healthy ace. They simply can’t predict that health with any certainty.
It might or might not work out, but it has a better chance of working out than trying to build a rotation out of low cost rehab projects on short term deals.
Wait – That last paragraph couldn’t be more true!
Let’s hope Walker can pitch better than he did in Texas.
Red Sox get a $15M club option if he misses 120 games with a “significant arm injury”. How often do pitchers stay healthy for six consecutive years without missing 120 games with a “significant arm injury” these days?
If they somehow get lucky, and he doesn’t miss time with a significant injury, then they’ll reap a ton of value over the next six years. If they don’t, and he needs another TJ, then they get a relatively cheap option to make up for some of that time missed.
Still ways that this might not work out, but the risk/reward just tilted in the Red Sox favor.
Rosenthal pointed this out elsewhere. He’d probably get $10 or so million in arbitration next year, which means they’re paying about $32MM a year after that, which is premium ace level. He may be that, but it seems like they took a big risk here.
Lord – As some people stated, the Red Sox “had” to extend him no matter what because of the huge haul they gave to the ChiSox for him.
The ChiSox had all the leverage with the trade, and Crochet had all the leverage with the extension. Red Sox didn’t even include an IP clause or elbow injury clause.
This extension is what we call in the gambling world “doubling down”.
Wait – Yeah I saw the clause was reported yesterday, I’m definitely happy about it.
Just like the Rafaela contract, all we can do now is hope for the best.
It isn’t really “doubling down” because nothing has happened of significance between the trade and the contract. “Doubling down” is what you do when you are DOWN and increase the bets to try to get back to even. Thus the term.
Rather, I would characterize it as “following through”. Either he is worth that package, in which case he is worth the contract, or he isn’t. Playing it half way is a guaranteed loss, leaving you paying too much and getting too little.
Make your determination and then go for it. No half measures.
wait – With all due respect, you’re omitting a key part of the definition.
Doubling down is when you’ve made poor decisions that have failed (ie: lost money) and therefore continue to make poor decisions in your quest to win back what you’ve lost.
“Expect to see Fox double down on its marketing efforts to give the movie a big boost. Instead of learning from his mistakes, he’s doubling down.”
“If you double down, you commit more strongly to a position. Rather than admit his policies had failed, he simply doubled down.”
In this instance, the Red Sox are down four strong prospects (including two highly ranked) and instead of waiting to see if Crochet will make the trade pay off, the Sox are risking huge dollars on top of the prospects lost.
Anyway, time will tell if it’s a winning bet or not.
Exactly… You make a mistake, there’s evidence that it is failing, and then you “double down”. That middle part is missing here. There is no indication that the original trade was failing. Expensive, yes.
Just semantics, really, but I see this as simply a full commitment to Crochet. I am NEVER in favor of half moves. At least give yourself a chance to be right. Half moves are always wrong.
Wait – I totally agree with you about half moves, the past three trade deadlines are a perfect example.
As for the trade, the overall consensus is the Sox not only overpaid in prospects (exactly as predicted by Loumer) but also left themselves with a gaping hole at the catcher position which would need to be resolved if Wong continues to perform as poorly as he has.
But I see your point, if using the “failed” component instead of the “poor decision” component then you’re correct it’s too soon to assess the impact of the trade. Time will tell.
Yup. The Red Sox have a gaping hole at catcher. Wong might be okay as a #2, but he’ll never be a good #1. Teel might have been the answer, at least he had a chance.
Not sure how they intend to address that? I was big on Carson Kelly in the off-season, but clearly the team wasn’t with me on that. You know I was saying that at the time too, it isn’t just a reaction to his hot start.
In my opinion trading those prospects for two years of service is an overpay. Trading those prospects for the right to pay Crochet $175M over seven years is eminently reasonable. The prospects were “worth” some $50M to $80M depending on how much you like Teel, and in an off-season that the 31 year old Fried got $218M/8yrs, the 26 year old Crochet is easily worth that.
Not Finish his career with the Pirates?!? He probably won’t even finish his arbitration years as a pirate.
One trillion dollhairs and a lifetime supply of stache wax. Put it on the board!
Thought he grew some chin whiskers this off-season to go with the lip awning.
Skenes will sign with the dodgers for 1 billion deferred to 2050.
skenes’ll be injured before he signs a contract
More important question to me, what about locking up Houck for a few years while we’re at it?
Sox will probably go year to year with Houck given his age.
You’re probably right, but, they also probably shouldn’t. The time is probably ripe to lock him in and pick up two team options. With all the young exciting talent it should make Houck willing to give up a year or two
I think at this point Houck probably won’t give up a year or two.
Maybe yes, maybe no. I don’t think it’d be bargain basement hometown discount, but, I think he’d do something for a fair slightly below market rate deal
it also depends on how this year shakes out. I also don’t think he’ll sign for a below market deal and I wouldn’t blame him for not wanting to do so.
They should go week to week and compensate him with gift cards
acell10
I think at this point Houck probably won’t give up a year or two.
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I think he would. Houck looks like he has a decent amount of risk attached to him. He had a fairly poor 2nd half last year with a 4.23/4.53 ERS/FIP, with an alarming 42 Ks in 61.2 IPs. He followed that up with a bad Spring and a bad 1st start.’
Is there enough upside in his age 32 & 33 seasons to guarantee much upfront money?
Houck has just 3 years of service time. He is under arbitration control through the 2027 season.
I have no idea how good he will be in 2028 and 2029. All pitching is uncertain, all pitching is risky, so it becomes challenging to project four years ahead. Same is true for Crochet, of course, but Crochet was a year closer to free agency and that tips the balance.
If Houck has another strong season, they might sign him to an extension next winter. First would like to see him put up a strong first half.
No need. He’ll be at an undesirable age by the time the team control is up. Same with Duran
I see a lot of Arbitration in Skenes future.
GaSox – Houck will turn 31 during his first free agent year.
Unfortunately the Red Sox analytics, which Breslow just said are unique and better than everyone else’s, have labeled Houck a high risk extension candidate because of his age. He has already confirmed they have not talked to him at all about an extension. Maybe it’s not in the budget?
Speaking of budget, BTW Bregman is on pace for a .488 OPS and 32 errors which would be 33% higher than the highest of Raffy’s career ;O)
From the Pirates? They will probably just offer 30 years worth of season tickets and free birthday parties (cake not included) at the stadium for his kids.
5 dollah
100 of his Topps chrome update cards
At least 171
We’ll know in 3 maybe 5 years. The trading team will likely want ah extension.
Well, we won’t know till the last 2 years of control, probably. Especially with the cheap teams.
Hey, 170 million is what? 9 million for every start he’ll make during that period?
170 m for a pre arb guy after one healthy season lmaaoooo
He’s not pre-arb, he’s a FA after next season. Better to not comment than to speak with such inaccuracy.
Generally, when a commenter types “lol” or “lmaaoooo,” or “rofl” as part of their comment….that person is not doing much thinking before commenting.
Like that justifies overpaying an average player lol.
good job proving Paddyo right.
Average player? What a laughable comment. He’d be the number one starter on the Dodgers.
Why because he gets a lot of strikeouts? lol
He would be our emergency starter and moved to the bullpen come postseason.
Darren – Crochet is averaging 4 K’s per start ;O)
You must have an average brain if you think Crochet is an average player. Watch him pitch maybe?
Oh look, a casual.
He’s above average but not worth anywhere near $170M. Last year he threw 146 innings. Before that he had never pitched more than 65 innings going all the way to age 19 when he was in college. Guys like this are a going to have major surgery soon if they don’t build arm strength up over time.
He’s the 4th starter on the Dodgers don’t get ahead of yourself ol timer.
Not quite. Although just about every Dodger starter would be the ace anywhere else.
Ohtani when pitching, Yamamoto, Snell, Sasaki, Glasnow all better. Kershaw clears when healthy. May was great, looked good the other night… You’re right he’s probably in the bullpen on the Dodgers.
He’s not PreArb….
You are spinning yarns about Crochet.
At least he will pitch in the playoffs now.
Only if he can hit for devers too
It’s the 5th game of the season moron
It was a joke “moron”
fred – The Red Sox making the playoffs is a very big assumption. Yesterday T.C. was emphasizing the Sox have never in their entire history made the postseason after losing at least 4 of their first 5 games.
Obviously with the expanded playoffs and key injuries on other teams, the Sox can still make the postseason. But they most definitely lied about putting their best team on the field. Rafaela starting in the OF over Anthony is a crime, and how the hell did Cora not realize Devers wasn’t prepared for MLB pitchers? Oh yeah, because Cora spent all his time in ST focused on his BFF Bregman and the kids.
Almost every championship team in history has lost 4 out of 5 games at some point in their season. It just happened at the beginning of the season so people think that’s different. Load of bull.
Hayzee – I can always count on you for a laugh, thank you!!
The Dodgers must be really worried then with their 5-0 record ;O)
Well, what’s the probability that a team winning its first five games wins a championship and is it higher than a team that goes 4 and 1? Because if it’s NOT, then should they have lost a game on purpose?
And aren’t we talking about a franchise that went down 3 game to none in a playoff series?
Huh.
hayzee – You lost me there! LOL!!
hayzee – Postseason is not the same as regular season, and a postseason series is not the same as an entire regular season.
Case in point, the NESN crew (TC, Rice, Loumer, etc) all boasted about how the OD win was a sign of how great the team is and how they will go far into October.
Yes, OD does provide a hint of how the season will progress …. but a full trip through the entire starting rotation gives a better hint.
Of course nothing is guaranteed no matter how they perform during the first week, it’s all about probability. When you dig an early hole in the standings, it’s harder to find your way to the top of the standings.
Hopefully Anthony and Mayer will be called up soon, that would definitely help. But I would be surprised if they are called up early enough to earn a year’s service time.
If he makes it that far.
Good deal for both sides
Leaning towards much better deal for Crochet than RSox. If he would have made for example 12 mil in his final ’26 arb year……that’s 5/158mil (31.6 aav). That is very retail for someone who is still trying to show he can be that 165ip+ ace with workload limitations removed. Believe this guy is a stud, but fair amount of risk here.
Retail price would necessitate adding extra years. This deal ends when Crochet is 32. I think it’s very fair for both sides and the Red Sox now have an ace to sell tickets.
I wouldn’t call him an ace yet. He’s only had one full season. Could be the next Rick Porcello.
Agreed. I’d add they gave up the prospect capital to be in a position to do this in the 1st place.
Gbs – even porcello won a CY….
GASoxFan, so Crochet is less accomplished than Porcello and still got $170M.
There’s definitely some risk, but, so a great opportunity for reward. Let’s wait and see how it ages before condemning it
@gbs42 and @drtymike0509 Fair points.
I normally agree with you. But Porcello never came near a 35% K-rate. He topped out at 23.5. They’re not really even comparable.
Portillo make good hot dog
Rick porcello didn’t have this guy’s skills
he is not an ace. he is a #2 at best.his top haul is 145 inn, to a 3.58 era.thats not ace.he may become an ace, he may not.thats not determaned yet.besides that,the red sox have alot more problems,like how to stay out of the basement this year,and break 500.no offence, but they look horible right now.
The redsox have been atrocious with RISP. You can’t have games going 0-10 or 0-12 with men in position to score.
I think that will sort itself out shortly
YBC – Trust me, despite all the new high profile acquisitions they are still sucking wind when it comes to ticket sales. The discount and freebie ticket offers I’m getting inundated with are hilarious!!
Red Sox Nation isn’t falling for it again, they want to see results. Missing the postseason again would be a colossal failure.
They do!
Hank,
My initial comment was to say Crochet has had one good season, the same number Porcello had.
My follow up was somewhat tongue-in-cheek regarding their Cy Young Award status.
Is Crochet better than Porcello was? He has better stuff, but health is a skill, and he needs to show he has that skill to be worth this contract.
GaSox – It never did last year because of their swing-as-hard-as-possible hitting philosophy.
To bring runners home from 3B with less than 2 outs requires the ability to make contact. Strikeouts don’t accomplish that.
@Slimray I hope you’re not a gambling man for someone who is apparently a terrible judgement of MLB talent. You act like Crochet is some 30+ year old that has failed to reach 160 innings in his career… Many of the most talented pitchers of all time didnt even reach the Show until they were around ~25 years old.
Top 3 pitchers in baseball by Talent: Skubal, Skenes, Crochet
They’re not really even comparable.
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Porcello was a good #3. Crochet, if healthy, is one of the best pitchers in baseball. And Porcello’s roughly $32M per is probably the equivalent to Porcello’s $21M we extended him for.
In what was his only good season
In what was his only season as a starter.
PineTar,
Many of the most talented pitchers of all time were in the Show for a few seasons before age 25.
Yeah good do for Crochet. Ok enough to do deal for Boston. Risk but if he stays healthy and great he would get more $ and years.
cws – Well said! Some people here don’t realize the true value of the extension is based on the $158M/5 years that you mentioned.
BTW – Nice performance by Perez today!
It’s an amazing deal for Crochet, but for the Red Sox, there’s a huge amount of variability on what this deal will end up being. Crochet just parlayed 46 starts above high school (at roughly 250 innings total) into $170 million. And he wasn’t exactly Cy Young-level in those starts. AND he has a massive injury history.
If he lives up to the hype and stays relatively healthy, it’s a good deal for the Sox. Otherwise, this deal could be a disaster.
on the flip side Crochet signed for less than what cy younger caliber starters go for.
“what cy younger caliber starters”
He’s yet to prove he is one.
rct. Crochet was cy young caliber for the first half of last season but regardless he still didn’t sigh for what Cy young caliber starters especially at his age go for.
He had an incredible 209 to 33 K/W rate. That’s most definitely Cy Young- caliber. Skenes had a 170 to 32. What more do you need to see to realize how good he is?
@Hank: “What more do you need to see to realize how good he is?”
How about more than 140 innings of work? And if he’s going to pitch that low amount of innings, it needs to be electric stuff. If he’s “Cy Young caliber” he would have received votes, which he didn’t. Skenes, the other guy you mentioned, *did* have that kind of stuff and came in third in the Cy voting, despite only 133 innings and also being on a horrible team. Again, Crochet: no consideration.
So many people want to live in past. How many starts he made doesn’t matter. Only thing that matters is future results. Looks to have cy young worthy stuff. They seen the medicals. Know how he works recovers.
“So many people want to live in past. How many starts he made doesn’t matter. Only thing that matters is future results.”
How are you going to predict those “future results”, if not by looking at his past and his starts? Do you shake a magic 8 ball?
Scouting and analytics. Teams turn relievers into successful starters. They have little to no mlb starts to go by past results.
Crochet has half a season of starter data. And it’s recent. Would you rather have 2 or 3 seasons sure. More information the better. The best evaluators predict the future though. The braves didn’t care about Sales past few years of starts or lack of. They only cared about what he will do with them. You see the better teams doing this all the time. I do this all the time with zero resources.
@RCT – I’m sorry but I fail to see how such a young talented arm coming to Boston with over a thousand less innings pitched than Sale had when acquired is a bad thing or increased risk in any way.
The fact that he is 25 and hasn’t burnt out his arm as he heads into his prime years.. is exactly why this contract is a steal, and I’d seriously rather have Crochet locked up at 170 than have both of Burnes + Fried combined for the same.
YourDreamGM
They only cared about what he will do with them.
=========================
Before last year, Skubal was 23-27 with a 3.87 ERA. And some people still think he might be a good pitcher.
JoeBrady
All one has to do is look at the Pirates.
Astros didn’t care what Cole Morton did with Pirates. Rays didn’t care about Glasnow stats with Pirates. Pirates put him in pen so Glasnow must be a reliever! Padres didn’t care about Musgrove pirates stats. Yankees didn’t care about Holmes.
Pirates didn’t care about what Santana did for Yankees. And Yankees didn’t care about Hill’s 6 era with Chicago. Padres traded Soto for King who didn’t have many starts.
As Could ANY significant signing.
Teams only lament the deal gone wrong…
There are plenty where the team got the excess value of an early signing… But those aren’t convenient comparisons when a guy wants to sit home and play the “I told you so” game in the comments section.
And he wasn’t exactly Cy Young-level in those starts.
=======================
He was certainly a C.Y. candidate last year, before the innings restrictions. He had a 141/20 K/W with 10 HRs in 101.1 IPs, thru the end of June. He was probably better at that point than Skubal.
If we count this year where Crochet makes $3.8M, they are paying him $173.8M over 7 seasons which is less than $25M per season. Seems like a good deal assuming he stays healthy.
Roger Beshens Football Slider.
Fred Rogers Cardigan Sweater.
Bob Ross Bird Painting
Jed Hoyer Sucks dirt.
Gabba Gabba hey hey
I Wanna Be Sedated.
Brent Strom no clue until 2024 with a meeting with Mr Beshens. What MLB team taught the Roger Beshens football Slider before 2018? NO TEAM
No Major League team taught the Roger Beshens football slider until 2018? What was the reason for that? It doesn’t involve anyone creating the pitch or someone else throwing it.
I don’t think I will get a reply.
Oooof
this
I’m betting that contract won’t age well.
Not all of them are like jordan montgomery or zack greinke
ERod
MadBum
You’re right not all of them are BUMS
Greinke was great
It’ll age way better than that Jordan Montgomery deal. Yikes!
That’s the lowest bar.
Figured this would be a lot more unwieldly.
Breslow and company ACTUALLY have a clue and a plan.
Yes…..
The owner gave him money to spend that he didn’t give to the guy that – with his staff – rebuilt the farm system and developed the quality young players that are on the team as well as many that have been used to make trades.
See this all the time in MLB. A FO and/or manager builds up the franchise from next to nothing, and as the players start hitting the majors they increase the budget, fire the people that built the organization up, and bring in others and that somehow get credit for the team now being a contender.
Such is life.
Bloom did a great job with the farm system, but not so much rebuilding the pitching. Yoshida and Story have turned out to be mistakes, and these two things are why he was fired……The pitching was devoid in the farm system and free agent mistakes. I really liked Bloom, but in the end I would have fired him too.
Nice! Now he’s gonna get injured.
“Crocked” can mean injured or disabled.
“Crock” can also refer to a person or thing that is old, decrepit, or broken-down. Ahahahahahaha!
good deal for both sides
he’s worth the risk
Gods of Health, this man’s Fate is in your hands…
I think there’s a deity of shoulders & elbows. Youay direct your prayers, chants, and prop bets to their office.
You *may*
The deity of head and shoulders makes shampoo
Lance Armstrong shudda gave an offering to the testicle God
Youay that Fonzie-speak
I hope this works out…but damn that’s a lot of money for someone who still has a lot to prove
he’s young and has the working for him. They basically locked Crochet up for his prime without going into his late 30s
Yeah, but how good will his prime be?
hopefully really good.
Top-5 starter in the game
@manfraud Crochet just had a year indistinguishable from deGrom’s ROY season. The only thing he has to prove is whether he can stay healthy.
Granted that’s a lot, but it’s also a lot less than you’re implying.
Paid like a Cy Young winner. Geesh.
But at least the Sox are locking guys up.
He is? 7/160 is about the going rate for a good pitcher. It’s not even close to what fellow lefty Fried got.
You have it flipped. 6/$170. Almost $30 million AAV for a guy who hasn’t accomplished much in the majors.
And if they wait until he accomplishes enough to satisfy you, they’ll be paying a lot more.
“And if they wait until he accomplishes enough to satisfy you, they’ll be paying a lot more.”
And if he can’t pitch more than 150 innings without getting injured, they’d be paying a lot less. Novel concept, bud.
No, not a lot less. He had a 4.1 bWAR last year in 146 innings. Fried just got $218M/8 and he’s averaged 4.0 over the past 3 seasons.
l don`t respond to the negativity because it`s like arguing with a drunk.They always change the goalposts. If they sign a player early ,he`s an unproven talent,big risk. If they wait and sign them at 30,it`s an overpay and he`s aging and a big risk….so,you can`t win, Hank,btw Hank was my favorite player growing up in the late 50`s and 60`s!!
Fried 8 years vs 5 and with opt out can be 4.
muth – I hope you’re not referring to AAV, because Fried is getting only $27.25M annually.
Total money. Crochet is 4 years younger. If they wait till he “proves it” he’ll demand a higher AAV than even Fried.
Is it a risk? Sure. He’s a pitcher…but the skills are off the charts and in a relatively full season he showed them.
He got a very similar contract as Carlos Rodon
That’s a lot of money for someone who has had one exceptional year., but averaging only 4 1/2 IP per start? But he’s 26, and he seems to have a great deal of talent, so why not?
The IPs were more before they put him on rstrictions.
Correct Joe. He was pitching 6+, 7 innings in many starts last season before he exponentially increased his innings limit from what he was used to as a reliever.
Lots of moving parts in last year’s stat lines, but, hopefully the extension pans out. They certainly paid a kings ransom to get him, so, you almost needed to do the extension to see what he can become over a few seasons.
He averaged 5.63/GS before the restrictions kicked in. It’s unrealistic to expect any SP to average more than 6. And with a better defense, maybe Crochet might’ve averaged 6.
“but averaging only 4 1/2 IP per start?”
It needs to be pointed out that this was largely due to the White Sox protecting him from getting injured. They didn’t let him throw more than ~65 pitches in any start in the second half, regardless of how he was pitching. If you look at his game logs, he had many starts where he gave up 0, 1, or 2 runs yet the White Sox yanked him after 4 innings.
I agree with your general point though. Way too much money for someone who hasn’t done much yet. Big gamble.
It was actually half an exceptional year.
He posted a 5.00+ ERA in limited action in the second half last year.
“He posted a 5.00+ ERA in limited action in the second half last year.”
You need to look at his game logs. He had one bad start of 7 runs in 2.1 innings. He had a 3.00 ERA in all other starts in the second half.
He was also unhittable in his last 8 starts. He had a 42/3 K/W in his final 25.1 IPs. It’s a tiny sample, but it’s like having a 14/1 K/W in a 9-inning game. Those are games some SPs have once a career.
King – Exactly! And what’s even more concerning is you would expect the opposite.
Pitching only 44 innings since July 1st, you’d expect him to air it out with every pitch and leave nothing in the tank.
Fever – that one I’ve got to disagree with you on.
Remember around the AS break he put out a statement he wouldn’t pitch the postseason without an extension? He knew the innings he threw vs previous highs, and, was concerned about doing damage to the arm by overexerting going forwards.
Actually shows some smarts in the kid trying to protect himself, even if he did it the wrong way.
But, a kid who is worried about the workload his arm as had would do the exact opposite of airing it out, regardless of short innings per appearance… wouldn’t you think?
GaSox – If he truly stopped giving his best after his June 30th start, then he essentially pitched for just half a season.
If you’re right – and you very well could be – then there was even a greater fear of injury than we all realized.
And I’ve asked this question in the past (not to you, just in general) …… what if a team had acquired him last summer and agreed not to pitch him in the postseason. It sure sounds like he would have been useless in August/September as well.
So if he had gotten traded he would still have pitched only 31 innings in August/September with a 4.83 ERA because of his fear of getting injured??? Then what in the hell was the reason for the ChiSox to even bother shopping him last summer?
There is just so much wrong with this picture.
If you remember, once that statement from crochet came out, it *was* effectively the end of shopping him around.
The club saw a chance to sell high on an asset they knew would expire before a return to competitive ball. So they tried shopping him, at which point… yep, played out exactly like that.
But yes, he was used to heavily earlier in the year with 6+ and 7 IP appearances mixed in with 5+… not managed as an asset expected to pitch a meaningful entire season. And that’s also why clubs weren’t very interest in the trades
Got $170 mil and only started 32 games in his career….
How many had Yamamoto pitched
NPB. Plenty
Not the same and you know that and Yamamoto got 300 and ten years lol
Translates pretty well. Their best as good as ours. Just look at the NL and former AL MVP….
@Jerry Hairson
The truth lies somwhere in the middle here. While the best in NPB can be as good as anyone in MLB, overall there is far less talent depth over there.
Could pull many examples, but my favorite is the holder of the NPB single season hit record, Matt Murton.
Japanese stars can translate well to the states, but definitely are no sure thing. MLB teams seem better at scouting foreign players these days though, as the big flops have been fewer and fewer
Like over a hundred….
They could wait until he starts about 100 games and pay him a lot more.
Or regret paying him at all. It can go either way. Time will tell….
yikes!!! The Red Sox will rue this signing mightily, I’m afraid.
They will rue like Tampa rue McClanahan
Like Yankees rue Cole.
Wonder how much Skubal is gonna get?????
Probably just above what Cole got.
$766 million.
For 225 career innings, this is an absolutely insane contract.
Somehow, even with arbitration years left, he is getting almost the same as 2 time Cy young winner Blake Snell.
he’s also what six years younger than Snell?
But with a long history of super serious arm injuries.
If he had a 2nd great year, it wouldn’t be so crazy. However, they are betting on replicating a year where the league was adjusting to him and he was never pushed deep into games. I think it’s probably a year too short or $20-30M more than he should’ve gotten.
Snell also has his own long history of super serious arm injuries.
Snell also has two Cy Young Awards
sure and as I said he’s 6 years olde than Crochet.
He’s very young, and, wage inflation for SP is a real thing. I’m not sure the numbers are as crazy as they feel to some commenter all things considered. Only question is what level he will produce at.
Incorrect. Snell pitches every season. He misses some action but NO SERIOUS INJURIES.
Blake Snell has pitched over 180 innings twice in his career. he’s not the paragon of health you’re making him out to be.
I never said Snell was a bastion of health. However, his only year under 100 IP since 2017 was COVID. Crochet, on the other hand, only has 2 seasons ever above 100 IP: last year and his last year in college.
And again Crochet is six years younger than Snell. the age when they sign matters a lot.
Friendly reminder: Don’t blame the player, blame the GM.
Don’t blame the greed, blame the pride
We often exaggerate and loosely throw the words overpaid or overrated around in these threads. This however, may very well be the biggest overpayment I’ve seen in my entire life. As a Yankee fan I love watching the Red Sox ruin themselves with awful decision after awful decision. Piss the face of your franchise off – check, financially cripple your franchise with clown contracts – check
speaking of awful decisions and financially crippling moves: lose the second best hitter and generational talent to your cross town rivals-check, sign a 32 year old pitcher with questionable injury history to $200 million contract-check. Let Scott Boras fool you into signing Carlos Rodon to a nine figure contract-check, let Boras fool you again by resigning Cole after he declines his option- check.
Also may I add sign a 37 year old 1st basemen who’s coming off the worst statistical year in his entire career, check. Don’t sign an actual 3rd basemen leaving DJ the BUM as your only option, check. Bring in Cody Bellinger thinking he’s going to replace the offensive hole they now have upon losing said generational talent, check.
Worry about your mental midgets Yankees. Wrain
He is watching videos of games when DJLM could still play.
Speakin’ of clown contracts
Sure.
A pox on both their houses.
If there were equal revenue sharing in MLB the Red Sox and Yankees would be like the Giants, Jets, and Patriots are in the NFL.
Well, for one, it hasn’t been bad contracts that have sunk the past 4 years. It’s been a stew of apathetic owners, wtf-style injuries and some horrible defense. Save for Story and Yoshi, there really haven’t been any awful decisions after awful decisions as you state.
If there’s a fan who certainly knows sunk contracts, it’s a Yankee fan. Tell Jacoby we said hi.
*Devers contract.
Devers defense
We Back Baby!!!!
yea,the sox look great.pulling up the rear in al east.lol.
Overpaid!
not if he averages 4WAR per year and opts out after year 5…good value. To say nothing of tickets and merchandise he’ll sell
4WAR is a cool name for an indie rock band
4WAR that group w the where the wild things roam masks
Mike – Looking at Crochet’s career, do you think he will be healthy and be able to be a 4 WAR SP through the next 6 seasons, since the extension kicks in next year?
It’s undeniably a risk. I;m a Yankees fan, so I can ask the same thing about Fried. Long term pitching contracts…Mike Mussina paid off, Greg Maddux first Braves deal. But you are absolutely right.
The greatest pitching contract has to be the 4yr/52m deal that Randy Johnson signed with the Dbacks after the 1998 season. That was the same off-season Kevin Brown became the first 100m man (7/105m).
Randy Johnson won the CY all 4 years. He got such a smaller deal than Kevin Brown because he was considered to be much riskier.
This deal with Crochet is about 50m more than I thought it might be for and obviously a ton of risk (like every single pitching contract) but man, he could go all Randy and be the best pitcher in the game over the next 5 years and it could be a absolute bargain.
Kudos to the Sox for not prospect or cash hugging!!
Padre: anything less than ace performance and workload (meaning 6Ip/start, 30+ starts, good numbers overall) and the deal is a massive overpay. There’s no evidence he can handle that workload. Given his previous workload and injury history, it’s very unlikely that he can handle that kind of workload and be effective over one full season, let alone the next 7.
There are plenty of pitchers who have had one good full year and then disappeared off the face of the earth.
Yeah it’s a huge gamble but I’m of the opinion that for a team like the Sox who have deep pockets and just gave up a ton of talent to acquire him, why not pony up and keep him more than two years?
I’d rather have Crochet at this price than any of the 3 big FA arms (Snell, Fried, Burnes). Burnes is the safest to give you the most innings of the bunch, but he’s also seen around a 50% decline in K’s in recent years so that might not end up being as valuable as you’d hope. Snell and Fried vs Crochet in games started over the next 5 years I have as a wash and think Crochet’s upside blows those others out of the water since he could be just entering his prime due to the big age advantage.
I would have liked to see him actually pitch a full season as a starter before making this deal. It’s difficult to be a SP for one game. It’s much more difficult to do it 30+ times a season, year over year. His second half of last season worries me. In shortened outings, he should have dominated. He should have been trying to impress other teams so that the best teams would trade for him. But he didn’t dominate, it was mostly the opposite.
Crochet could be entering his prime, or because of his past workload and injury history he could not handle the workload and needs to jump back to the bullpen – in which case this deal is a significant overpay.
And extra year of evidence that he could do that and then there’s going to be a bump in salary but it’s less risky.
I don’t think he is signing this deal next off-season with a big 2025. At that point he is one more big year away from potentially doubling it.
Compare this contract to the Yankees decision to not let Cole walk after he opted out of 4/140 and was hurt a lot last year. Even without the benefit of the TJ that seemed a helluva lot riskier to me then this deal.
Cole has YEARS of throwing 200+ IP to show that he can handle the workload.
Crochet doesn’t.
Man I really hope this contract works out, because if it doesn’t the Sox look quite dumb for it.
You can say that about any long-term contract. Rodon has a 1.2 bWAR for the NYY over two years. Ray has a 1.8 in three years. McCullers has thrown 47 IPs in 3 years.
He already has had tommy john, so I don’t think its a sure thing he will need it again
LOL
Fenway: why? Most of the time when a guy who was a starter gets TJ, they pitch for like what 6-8 years before needing a second one. But Crochet handled a reliever workload through college (started a handful of games,.mostly reliever) and then didn’t start at all in the majors (skipped the minors) and got TJ. It’s not the same as your typical starter getting TJ.
LFGMets: He’s already had that. Hopefully once is enough.
This has Sale written all over it.
except Sale was 30 when he signed his extension and Crochet is 26
But Sale had finished top 5 in Cy Young voting for four straight years when the Red Sox signed him. And then he gave them two incredible seasons (and the won the WS in one of them).
ok so that just furthers the point that comparing this signing to Chris sale’s is a lazy comp at best
Lazy comp was my nickname in middle school
You guys are so obsessed with Cy Youngs. The best pitcher often doesn’t even win it.
How about looking at stuff like K-rates, K/BB rates, swinging strike rates. You know, the stuff that really matters and that is the foundation for how teams make decisions like this.
Oh yes, I forgot that you are the decider of all comments oh great one! Next time I’ll check first with you to verify that my comment is worthy of your eyeballs sir.
Oh yes, I forgot that you are the decider of all comments oh great one! Next time, I’ll check first with you to verify that my comment is worthy of your eyeballs, sir.
Hammerin’ Hank
How about looking at stuff like K-rates, K/BB rates, swinging strike rates.
=========================
Is this your first foray into a RS conversation? I’m pretty sure that less than 10% of the fans know Crochet’s SwStr%.
And Sale was in need of TJ
And that’s my comp. Lazy as it may be.
Don’t know about lazy. But sale lost velocity which is a huge red flag for something wrong. Difference in age.
Crochet could need it. Already had it once. Was a reliever to start. But healthy as of now as far as I know.
at least you have some self awareness
This has Sale written all over it.
======================
Without opening up another can of worms, if Sale doesn’t break a finger trying to bare hand a comebacker, and then fall off of his bicycle, it would’ve still been a good contract, even with the TJS.
we diverge there Joe. He missed time due to a shoulder injury along the way too along with other maladies. The comeback was bad luck. The bike thing I don’t even know how to describe that. The tommy John surgery and other ailments not so much,
Hopes and prayers that this doesn’t turn into Chris Sale 2.0. However, the Sox did win a championship with Sale so if that’s the case i guess it’s worth it
Sale was much older (30) when he signed his extension with the sox.
They already won world series. Then once Sale velocity dropped they extended him.
His velocity was down early 2018 he adjusted and mid season he was throwing harder than ever. Different creates a new variable. Went on DL with shoulder came back velocity drastically down. That’s a red flag. Then even after it being even more drastically down early 2019 red sox weren’t concerned. They were incompetent. Finally get him healthy and just give him away to Atlanta.
People are so fickle. All I read is that the Sox don’t want to spend and won’t take gambles on anyone. When they do, people bash the signing. Locking up Crochet and potentially Campbell are big risk, big reward signings. As a Sox fan, I love it.
Sox fans seem to like it. It’s only the stupid toxic Yankees fans and jealous fly over country teams fans who are hating.
What’s a fly over country. Austria? Luxembourg? Tajikistan?
Campbell makes sense.
Crochet deal seems to expensive for his track record given his injury history. Any scenario where he doesn’t pitch like an ace for the duration of the deal and it’s a massive overpay by the Sox.
Crochet had one great half season of baseball and got paid like a top tier SP free agent. He had TJ while handling a reliever workload. This is too risky.
Now if he pitched well through this full season? Throw in a little more money and the deal makes sense.
These people are miserable losers who only know how to complain. 1st it was all praise when they made the trade happen. Now it’s all complaints when they give the guy an extension. What are they never supposed to lock up a ACE? Just let him walk after 2 years? They are complete idiots. Half this comment section is clueless.
It’s like politics. For at least half the country, your opinion of tariffs depends on your party affiliation. In here, at least half of the posters opinions revolve around their opinion of the FO. For some, every move is a bad move.
If only there was something in between the extremes you’re painting.
The good news is they are FINALLY spending money.
Well, technically they are not spending money NOW on Crochet. That starts in 2026.
Red Sox now assured of winning every fifth game! At 1-4 thankfully his spot in the rotation is up again so the team can notch up win number 2!
Also, I know it’s the tiniest sample size ever, but holy cow Devers looks baaaaaad……
It’s giving Chris Sale
Just have to see how this works out. That’s a lot for a pitcher with just one good season under his belt. Maybe it will go good for the Sox.
FSG was traumatized by offering Mookie contracts too late that they jumped the gun with Crochet.
This is a deal he should have gotten if he proved he can be healthy and pitch well through this full season.
Based on the current market the price goes up by 50 mil if they wait and he doea that
Pool – An extra $8M annually would be worth 80% less risk. It’s not like the team is adverse to overspending.
Based on the current market the price goes up by 50 mil
============================
I don’t know why some fans don’t get that. It’s a 0-sum game. If you wait and he fails, you win. If you wait and he succeeds, you lose.
This, and given what they gave up to get him, they’re clearly betting on him to succeed
50 million feels on the light side too
Pretty good for a guy with a 9-19 lifetime record!
Well, he did pitch for the White Sox…
A+ post. Thanks.
Yeah, his win-loss record should have definitely been the main consideration here.
If he was 19-9, he gets $270 million. I kid.
Pitching for the White Sox torpedoed his won/loss record.
Skubal was under .500 before last year. Greene, Lopez, Alcantara-all below .500. I can build a WS team with guys that are .500 pitchers on bad teams.
Almost 200 million for a pitcher with 33 career starts.
Pedro Martinez must be rolling in his grave.
Who killed Pedro? It wasn’t Napoleon.
Probably Nelson that little person the Sox used to let run around the clubhouse.
It is quite the bargain to find a elite starter with so few miles on em.
I didn’t know one all star appearance made someone elite ad he doesn’t have a lot of miles because he’s already had a Tommy John Surgery.
1 all star Paul Skenes not elite? Who gives a it about all star appearances. His incredible stuff is where it’s at.
Yes a rookie with 1 all star appearance.
Great comparison…
DarrenDreifortsContract
Yes a rookie with 1 all star appearance.
Great comparison…
==========================
Both had exactly one season as a starter.
Both had exactly one All Star appearance.
Now you’re just trolling.
Don Zimmer.
Nappy was a traitor. Worked for Tracy Flick behind his buddy back
“Pedro Martinez must be rolling in his grave.” That’s got to be the least credible thing I’ve heard at these forums in the last month. Congrats
He be rolling. Rolling a fat one
Consider the source.
All Pedro is doing is rolling over in his bed.
Cbraves – Or he’s chowing down.
I don’t think there is any chance this yields a positive return on investment for the Sox. Way too much money given the control they had, lack of track record, talent given up to acquire him, etc. A brutally bad mistake
the sox had two years of control which isn’t much. Crochet is also 26 at the time of his signing and basically got the same money and term as Carlos Rodon did at age 30. It way too early to call this a “brutally bad mistake”.
Agreed. Basically all they had was this season and his walk year. It was either close the small gap that remained or he was going to test FA…
The extension doesn’t start until 2026 so they are buying one cheap year out and adding five more years of control. He’s a pitcher he’s risky but when right he’s tor talent and they got him for 28.333 million on that 6 year extension. It was a fair deal they got him cheap for this year and bought out the one cheap year for 5 more years. This had to be done with the prospect package they gave up.
4 years. Unless he is negative value he will opt out.
Bruin – I have to half-agree. It’s a fair deal if he stays healthy and pitches like first half of 2024.
Being forced into a massive risk simply because of the haul they gave up doesn’t make sense at all.
It’s like giving an engagement ring after dating a really attractive woman for just a week, and then feeling like you have to marry her because you paid a fortune for the ring.
Damn I should copywrite my analogies. LOL!!
Fever, with a good pre-nup you roll with it if she’s really that attractive!
GaSox = Haha …. did you by chance read my earlier comment on pre-nups? ;O)
I guess in Crochet’s case the pre-nup would have been the Lackey or JDM clause.
Brutally bad comment
This is bad news for seattle. This makes extending Walter almost impossible for them. With his travk record his extension would have to blow this deal away
I like it. It’s arb year + ~$32M * 5.. Anything can happen, but t his guy is one of the best in baseball when he is right. His 6.33 K/W last year is as good as it gets. Skenes was great at 5.31 and Skubal was great at 6.51.
And I am surprised it wasn’t attached to this article, but anyone want to speculate about what Skubal is going to get?
probably in the Cole neighborhood 9 at 350 or around there
10% paid in gold
With all this NPV contract talk now a days, how long before these players realize gold is money and everything else is credit? One can dream.
Bro’s gonna need pallet all that glitter.
The life of contract 10% would be about 5,500 oz of gold at current prices.
Yeah that’s like 345lbs of gold or 12.5 gold bricks
Gold is only something you use to hedge your real investments.
Gold has compounded annually at an avg of 8% for the last 25 years, and is up over 30% on the current fiscal year. It is 1 of 2 tier 1 reserve assets under Basell III.
It’s a wealth preservation asset and protects against the destruction of fiat purchasing power.
I think it’s a solid contract for both sides. As a Yankee fan I have to say watching what the Red Sox are doing rebuilding this quickly with the talent and this trade they are going to be a strong team in the AL East for the foreseeable future.
Now if only they swipe some torpedo bats from yankee stadium….
Those bats for are for the hitting handicap
So perfect for Devers these days….
GaSox – Speaking of, now get this ….. yesterday Cora swore on his trashcan that Devers isn’t being affected by either his shoulders or the transition to DH.
Then Devers said he thinks it’s all mental from him overthinking about hitting.
Well DUH ….. THAT’S what everyone has been speculating, he doesn’t know how to handle not having his time between PA’s occupied with fielding. The more time players have with nothing to do, the more they think.
So can someone please tell Cora that overthinking absolutely IS the result of his transition to DH. It’s not a coincidence he started his first season as fulltime DH with the worst slump of his professional career.
Devers has played DH before I think, just not full-time.
His problem is reported as he changed his footwork while swinging and he’s not catching fastballs.
If the whole not being on-field thing is that big a problem, stick a bag on the floor of the tunnel, give me free season tickets, and I can throw baseballs at Devers that he can fail to catch in-between innings.
GaSox – Haha …. love it!
Hey at least Devers never dove for a ball nose-first …. but then again, he’s not the one who is Pinocchio ;O)
Seriously though …. if it was something as simple as his footwork, or widening his stance too much, is it really possible NONE of the dozen coaches has caught that? So what’s the solution, expanding to 2 dozen coaches?
I know the Sox regime is ignorant about many things, but with their huge staff and state of the art technology how can they possibly NOT notice something different about Raffy’s swing?
Fever – I think they have. I might be imagining it, but I swear Cora mentioned in one of his media appearances Devers footing in the batters box having changed.
GaSox – I don’t know, I don’t recall hearing that from him. If they know that’s the issue, why hasn’t it been resolved by now?
I mean he spent 100% of his time in ST on hitting, why wasn’t it rectified then? It’s not like we are in midseason and he has suddenly slumped …. this kind of start to the regular season is absolutely inexcusable.
And here’s the thing that REALLY amazes me about analytics, when they totally ignore really basic important stats.
You said earlier Raffy has DH’d before. Yes, he has 110 PA’s as a DH.
Guess what his numbers are as a DH?
.230/.291/.410 and an OPS of .701
Small sample size for sure, but CLEARLY he hasn’t proven he can be a successful DH.
Let’s talk about another Dominican 3B who is a great hitter, Jose Ramirez.
.891 career OPS playing 3B
And career as a DH? In 519 PA’s he has a .742 OPS
DH is not for everyone, and I would imagine it’s harder for someone who suddenly lost their fielding position the way Devers did.
But hey, let the Red Sox ignore past results ….. past results are not any type of indicator of future performance …. right?
$170 million for one decent year as a starter. Maybe it will work out, but I don’t get that logic. Players get paid crazy money on potential, not proof
Still better than the Bello deal. Bello hasn’t reached success yet
You would rather pay on past results. Not much of a baseball dude
No, I would rather pay somebody $170 million based on potential and a whole history of one decent season. Why would I pay somebody $170 million based on a good track record and consistency? Not much of a common sense guy are ya?
Well they could wait and give him around $300 million in another two or three years.
Like I said, maybe it’ll work out maybe it won’t, but they really did pay him $170 million based on potential not a good track record or consistency
It’s a bit like the stock market. You can wait for Amazon to prove itself, but then you risk missing out on the huge gains.
And it is not necessarily better or worse, depending on your core competencies.
I love it for the Sox. Starting pitching is crazy expensive. You have to take some risks. Under $30 m annually for a 26-yr-old with outstanding strikeout stuff is as good a dice roll as you’ll get.
It’s worth pointing out that salary isn’t that far above the most elite BP arms either, a rold crochet has shown he can hold down. It’d be an overlay if he had to revert there for sure, and a disappointment, but, would t be the worst deal in mlb even if that came to pass
GA – Harder has 19MMm AAV, Diaz at 20MM. This deal is what 28.33 so a significant hike over those guys. Harder signed his deal in 2024, so recent.
So much for not getting a deal done and Fever Pitch Guy crying about how bad our management is. You ask why I don’t pay for the ads, it’s because these writers are so off base and pull a 180 the next day after they said deals were off the table. I would have better credibility as a journalist.
Okay, rant over. Good we locked him up but we gotta hope he has continued success and is the real deal.
No one here pays for the ads. The ads pay mlbtr
I’m positive people do pay for ads free reading
Not what you said. But sure some people do pay to be ad free. I love the ads. Hope they get more. Mlbtr needs to make $.
But that IS what I meant. I’m not paying to get rid of ads when the reporters have nonchalant news and I’m flooded with ads. It’s a bad precedence
So instead of paying to get rid of ads you keep putting up with them so you can read the nonchalant articles. Why?
I come for the comments. I only read the headlines
These writers collect articles by other publications and report with a neutral perspective. Your username is childish.
10 cents per day. You got this!
The dude should go to the local park after St. Patrick’s Day. There are enough bottles there to pay for 100 days worth of MLB-TR.
Marking meters on warm winter day. My go to as a kid. People with gloves drop quarters in snow cant find them. Snow melts easy $. Take a coat hanger to laundry mat and really clean up.
YourDreamGM
Marking meters on warm winter day.
=========================
I went the bottle route. There was a commercial strip on the opposite side of the block from me, and some of it was unbuilt. People would throw empties into weeds and such. I could get 20 cents or so pretty quickly, especially if I was lucky enough to find a beer bottle.
That was enough to get an 8-year old an afternoon of candy.
JoeBrady
Parking meters work too! Even better than Marking meters.
Aluminum cans more work but easy $.
As I became a older kid I didn’t mind finding the unopened cans bottles.
It’s funny, I’m not poor, but I still do it. My spouse goes thru a lot of club soda. Returning the bottles makes the environmentalist inside me happy, and instead of candy, I buy roast beef.
Give the 10 cents to the hungry on the street. I dont need to pay for my leisure when the site looks poor with all the ads anyway
You sure are thick, aren’t you?
I can just cope without spending for the removal of ads
Where’s @FPG?? We need a wellness check!
He’ll be around in a bit I’m sure. Maybe he’s shocked at the money starting to be thrown around the last couple weeks.
Sorry GA, I know he’s your buddy but he lacks credibility and when something that goes against one of his assertions happens, he tends to take his time responding.
Very possible acell… very possible.
But still, I’m always open to holding out the olive branch, I still think it’d be interesting to grab a beer even with you and talk baseball despite our numerous disagreements through the years. FPG seems to have taken the devers handling particularly hard this year.
But I’m weird and willing to admit it
We’re all weird in some ways. No judgement at least on my end.
Y’all RS fans are all weird – unlike Yankees fans! I disagree with him more often than not but I admire his passion. FPG is good people.
Yankees. You’re sorely mistaken on him being “good people”. Good people don’t have to strait up lie to make their point and then antagonize others but to each their own.
and Yankees fans are a very strange bunch themselves.
Duly noted but I haven’t experienced going into deep dive convos with him. Fully agree about our fans as well.
GASoxFan
I still think it’d be interesting to grab a beer even with you and talk baseball
========================
Dude, nothing personal against the other posters, but you are like the #1 guy in here I’d go for beers with. A little baseball, a little talk about cars…
Joe speaking of which, have you decided yet to pull the trigger on a fun toy? Whatcha waiting for man, you only live once LOL.
A week ago I picked up another platinum pearl GT mustang. 460hp of smiles at 25mpg doing it on the highway around 80-85 with the a/c on. Igs my first s550 body style in a convertible, which, is actually QUIETER than a hardtop. Fully loaded from the HUD and all the advanced controls, air conditioned seats, you name it. Even came with factory line lock if I wanna finish off the rear tires when they’re on their last legs. 😉
Not yet. I’m wondering whether my retirement car is waiting until my wife retires.
That said, and at the risk of getting yelled at, what do you think of the Eco-boost? I’m sure it’s not up to the GT standards, but it is cheaper.
I’m not a fan, for several reasons.
One, there’s a whole lot more to break. Nice thing about the gt is its all motor, doesnt depend on power adders like turbos. With the e-boost you’re taking a tiny motor and putting it to far more punishment on the parts but running higher rpms and higher pressures and compression internally. Turbos get shaft play, seals go, and the car is bricked till fixed as it won’t run properly without the compressed air.
Second, depending how you drive, you’re going to run more rpms and more pedal activity, idea being no mustang is light weight anymore. These are 3800, 4000 pound cars. You do need more throttle to make the same power and get some oomph.
The biggest factors to me though, come down to cost. The gt package adds some extra options beyond the motor, and, your resale or insurance value in an accident outpaces the cost difference between the ecoboost and the GT. Massively. I was just offered a 2017 ecoboost premium trim that needed Basically nothing with 140k on it for $7000. That same car in a GT is 18k all day long, and retail prices add 5-6k to each of those numbers.
In some ways, you’re paying a little extra as an investment knowing when you sell and get out of it you’re going to pull more in value than difference in acquisition cost.
Just my thoughts though. I was disappointed when they axed the 3.7l v6 after 2017. Those were good motors, made the hp and torque of an ecoboost just all-motor, less pressures, less to break, slower wear, and were stout being above 300hp. And if someone wanted the headaches of a turbo, can easily be upgraded and run to boost.
Thanks, I’ll add that to my list. My heart wants the chest-pounding acceleration, but the accountant in me says that I will seldom need 480 hp.
GaSox – I kinda figured Crochet would be around $150M.
Whatever they give Campbell I’m fine with, something tells me he will be giving a bit of a discount like Xander and Arroyo did (among others).
He’ll disappear for a while then make up some half cocked story filed with false statements about how he knew this would happen all along
YBC – Sorry for the delayed appearance, it was a brutal travel day home from Arlington/Dallas because of the weather delays. Four hour delay, and we even had to de-plane after boarding the first time.
American Airlines doesn’t offer complementary WIFI like JetBlue and other airlines, so I was totally oblivious about the breaking news.
Hah… Glad ya made it back in one piece!
YBC – Thanks! On the plane I got stuck next to a really sick guy. I wore a mask, hopefully I didn’t catch whatever he has. I’ll know by Friday I guess :o(
@FPG: Then you’d be Fever Plane Guy.
Steve – Haha …. good one, I like it!
I’m a bit of a germaphobe, not on the Howie Mandel level but I definitely keep my distance from viruses.
Today’s Friday and I’m still fine, so looks like my N95 worked :O)
That is a lot of money for Boston to tie up one player when in recent years, they were trying to be thrift. If this team flounders losing those prospects would have been a bad decision.
Mookie says hi
10 percent of their capable payroll isn’t a big deal.
Happy to see them lock him up. He’s signed for his prime years for what will turn out to be lower than future market value. That’s just the Sox playing strong odds. Great to see. Dude’s a stud.
But how does he feel about the torpedo bat?
Yike, that’s like more than a million per inning
This seems really reasonable given the SP market right now and Crochet’s ceiling. I personally think it is more likely to not work out fully for the Sox, but it seems within the margin of error for a franchise of this size. I hope he stays healthy and we get to watch him deal.
@Johnny Vandeer Meer It’s not quite “really reasonable” and I say that as a fan of Crochet’s work. What usefully cuts the cost of the deal and which no one’s mentioning are the rights the Red Sox retain in the event of an injury costing Crochet 120+ days.
It’s hard to calculate the exact value of that codicil to the team but it has to be at least $10m. Still, if it’s 10m in the context of 170m that’s roughly 6%. Call it 6/160m and the extension is still not terribly reasonable given the player opt out kicks the price back to 170m, at least. .
I suppose the deal takes deGrom’s extension and increases it by the big increase in the price of starting pitching since spring 2019, but it makes some assumptions that are hard to support based largely on Crochet’s 2024 and secondarily on just 73 MLB innings prior given he’s two years from FA.
Locking him in at $32M per free-agent year—cheaper than Burnes ($35M) or Snell ($32M NPV)—means they’ve nabbed a top arm before the market explodes, saving cash when their big contracts peak.
He has a 0.5 year track record of being an above average MLB SP and a history of elbow issues.
This is a big gamble with big risk.
I think it’s money well spent, but time will tell. It is simply an innings game. If he’s somewhat healthy and gives you 150+ innings a year, with his talent, it’ll be a bargain. Team don’t really have a choice with these things now. If you wait and he throws 160+ innings with similar stats to last year the price goes to like 8/280 or more to sign me after something like that.
Good perspective on this. And the Red Sox are signing him until age 32, or 31 if he opts out after not missing serious time. Avoiding his mid- to late 30s has to be hugely valuable to the Red Sox and I suspect that’s represented in the price, as the benefit to the team is a cost to the player in what is fundamentally a zero sum negotiation.
Look at the cost for example to the Yankees in signing (or, this offseason, extending) Cole through his age 37 season and losing him for two years, at least, at 33-35: the 1/2 season in 2024 and now the 1-1/2 seasons fr TJS, That’s $72m, minimum. Or the cost to Texas of deGrom’s injuries (not that it was the most intelligent contract to begin with) during his age 35 to 39 seasons, 1.1 WAR for their $74m, while the Mets had deGrom through age 34 and despite the injuries still got 6 bWAR out of the two FA years they bought with his extension.. Or all the other examples of the cost to teams of having to sign great pitchers well into their 30s.
Avoiding those costs has to be a big part of this contract.
How soon does he go on the IL?
It is a lot of money for a guy with a small track record, and already one major surgery under his belt, but you gotta take your chances if you want to win.
Tommy John is a pretty dope comp.
For a guy who had one good year, not so sure
I don’t know about this. I get it – he has a lot of talent in that arm & strikes out a lot of batters. But he hasn’t really done anything yet. He hasn’t had a full season of regular work, as the Pale Hose limited his innings in the 2nd half of last season. And now he’s making 28M a year…where’s the motivation? Not to mention the obvious injury risk that all pitchers face, especially in the era of.max effort. Good luck to the kid and to the Sox. But I would have wanted to see a full season before I’d consider making a commitment like this.
That is A LOT of guaranteed money for a guy with 1 half season of success as an MLB starting pitcher and an injury history.
Let’s see how it works out for them.
I personally prefer to play for the Naked Feet ball club, but to each their own. Unfortunately I’m having to pay like $80 to play, so fml, dammit!
Over the 7 seasons I wonder if Crochet will spend more days on the regular season active roster or more days on the IL?
What’s the under/over?
TJ surgery incoming . book it
Skubal and the Tigers are on the clock
Always happy to see a sensible comment. Skubal has a stronger track record, and is currently healthier. But he is also 2.5 years older. IMOHO, their future investments are so low that they really need to put some real money on the table.
Dude, if a guy who has never pitched a full season gets this kind of $$, imagine what Skubal, a Cy Young winner, will get. That said, Crochet was closer to FA when this deal was signed, so that ups the ante for him. Maybe that evens it out? I wouldn’t sign a starter long-term given all the risk. But it’s awfully hard to watch a talented pitcher walk away.
The argument can be made that the positives are that he *doesnt* have a lot miles on his arm and this deal ends when he’s 32 with some wear-and-tear for another team to worry about.
coop – How is Crochet closer to free agency, do you mean by a few months? They both were/are eligible for free agency after next season.
The Sox beat the Tigers to the punch and set the floor for extensions.
Skubal was able to recover from 2 surgeries before winning the Cy Young. Fans are willing to give him money without batting an eye, while theres parallel worry about $170M to a 26 yr old with less pitches on his arm and less arm surgeries.
Skubal had TJ in 2016, still got drafted. He became a full time MLB SP for DET in 2021, then had a flexor tendon surgery the following yr in 2022. Just 2 yrs after the 2ND arm surgery he wins the Cy Young and is about to get $200M+.
2021 – Skubal’s first yr as full time MLB SP = 149.1 innings across 31 G and 29 GS. Rounding liberally to 149.1 IP/31 GS = 5 IP/GS
2024 – Crochet 1st yr as full time MLB SP = 146 IP/31 GS = 4 2/3 IP per start (suppressed innings by WSox)
Skubal – 2021 634 BF & 2547 pitches thrown – 1.26 WHIP; 4.34 ERA & 5.58 xERA; 9.9 K/9; 15.5 Pitch/SO…..Entire career as SP, 4 yrs removed from TJ & 2 yrs from flexor
Crochet – 2024 595 BF & 2395 pitches thrown – 1.07 WHIP; 3.59 ERA & 2.85 xERA; 12.9K/9; 11.5 Pitch/SO…..1st pro yr as SP, 2 yrs removed from TJ
Arms blow up easily now a days, and arms heal to Cy Young caliber as well.
@Mo Valuable comment. Thanks.
It will be interesting to see how teams approach stud starters in the context of TJS having a life of 7-8 years, on average.
@Jack – Agreed. If Skubal gets a 7 yr deal in the next 9 months, it’ll take him through years 10-17 following his TJ. He did have that flexor surgery about 6 yrs after the TJ, so maybe that helped him to reset his clock a bit.
My thought for DET would be to target a 3-5 yr deal and try to beat the 8 year mark on that flexor surgery for the expiration. $130M/4 yr = $32.5M/yr + 1 club option @ $30M with an injury clause lowering the option salary.
That’s a very solid strategy for the Tigers to pursue.
As extraordinary as Skoobie’s 2024 was, his career looks a lot like often-injured Blake Snell than a post TJ Zack Wheeler. His injury history suggests exactly the kind of deal you describe.
Until Buehler and Crochet are injured.
MLBF, The thing is all pitchers are a TJ waiting to happen but here’s the good thing when managing risk on this deal on average pitchers last between 6 and 10 years before needing another procedure. So odds are he will probably be good for the duration of the contract and that’s the most important. Could he blow his arm out right away of course he can but odds are he won’t. When you factor everything in the prospects traded, the average time on the second TJ surgery, and what a front of the rotation guy means to a team that has the talent in place to be really good for a long time this was a smart move by Breslow. You just couldn’t let this guy walk. It was a good business move. Everyone who thinks he will be injured it’s just hate and wishful thinking the data says he probably won’t get injured but keep wishing all the same.
I’m less bullish on Walker Buehler simply because the data on second TJ surgeries are just not as conclusive as first TJ surgeries. He is pitching for his career this season so I expect he pitches well but I probably wouldn’t go crazy trying to sign him. The interesting thing about Buehler he had his first TJ surgery in August 2015 and his second in August 2023 8 years after the first.
My Bad August of 2022 is when he had the surgery so 7 years later still in that 6-10 year window.
It’s the second TJ surgery that worry’s me about Buehler. I agree he comes with a higher pedigree but there just isn’t a ton of evidence on how long pitchers last after a second TJ surgery. I would be hesitant to give him the deal he’s going to want if he has a great year and it’s solely because of that second TJ surgery.
After the Sale debacle, Boston touches the stove burner to see if it’s still hot.
Look it up. From 2019 until he was traded, Sale spent more time on the injured list than in uniform. That, my friend, was a debacle. Google it.
So cute, how you skip 2018-2019 when Sale paid off most of his contract in just two years, or how Cora had him lead the league in IP for no particularly good reason.
Fact: Sale spent more time on the IL from 2019 until the trade then he spent in uniform. That is indeed a collapse. Funny thing about facts is they don’t change no matter how you try to spin them.
Some where Tom Bolton smiles…or Joe hesketh.. your choice ..
olm – And somewhere Michael Bolton is wondering where his hair went ;O)
Great. Now let’s trade for Sandy.
I’d be curious to what the cost would be. Three years left at a reasonable salary.
Wouldn’t be cheap. Marlins would absolutely demand some MLB ready guys on top of high ceiling prospects. Plus there will be offers from multiple teams to compete with. But there’s no debating that winning in October starts with pitching. And my oh my that rotation would be formidable. Gotta keep Roman, Campbell, and Wilyer. But everyone else would certainly be in play.
Since the opt-out is before just the final year, isn’t that just a player option?
What’s the difference?
That’s my point. It would be better to call it a player option, which is the same thing in this situation but describes it better.
I suppose the full throttle crowd can officially go away
one can only hope.
Wow…Don’t care what his 2024 numbers were, the issue is durability and was 2024 his real MO or just a run-up for a better deal………for 224 total innings pitched over his career in the major leagues…….the Red Sox better hope 2024 is his real MO and not an aberration……….
The White Sox had him on an innings limit in ’24.
Rocky- the way I see it, it’s just money. Yeah, easy to say when they’ve been stingy the past few seasons, but, look, going forward story’s money is rolling off, sale’s money rolled off, you’ve got a lot of kids who will be low cost or hopefully extended affordably. It’s not the biggest or the worst risk, especially given the difficulties securing high end SP on the open market, right?
He is probably no more of a risk than the risk of Fried pitching for 8 more years. Just as a general rule, I think that too many fans think of kids as risky, but older guys as sure things.
Yawn.
got that 2pm feeling eh?
Doomsayers take a read
blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-sox-hook-crochet-with-…
Good article. I wasn’t aware of the injury provisions.
@Zenslinger Good analysis. The projection considers 6/170m to be right around the median, and that’s with Crochet never pitching more than 140 innings.
That’s how valuable a projectable top starter is in today’s game, even with starters ostensible devalued because of their reduced workloads.
Trade farm for injury prone pitcher. Sign to massive contract. Trade away for depth infielder?
you’;re not making sense. The sox didn’t trade the farm to get Crochet. (more than I would have liked) that said that contract isn’t massive in context.
The Red Sox farm system was rated No. 1 by Baseball America and No. 3 by MLB Pipeline AFTER they traded for Crochet.
Er, consistency in reference points matters. What was the Red Sox farm rated by BA and by Pipeline before AND after the deal?
Jack: The No. 1 and No. 3 ratings were AFTER the Red Sox traded two Top 100 MLB prospects (Teel and Montgomery) to the White Sox for Crochet. The farm system would be even better if they kept Teel and Montgomery who were their 2023 and 2024 first round picks. Not sure what you are getting at.
@Reply Just looking for constancy in the yardstick we’re using, given it’s not uncommon for different outlets to value a farm system 5 slots higher or lower than one another.
Jack: Yes, the farm system ratings vary from site to site. My point was that the Red Sox did not “trade the farm” for Crochet as two of the better rankers of farm systems had the Red Sox farm rated very high after the Crochet trade.
My point is very simple. The Red Sox did not “trade the farm” for Crochet as uvmfiji said.
Glad they could stitch that together.
A 160 million dollar mistake is easier to stomach than a 300 million dollar one it would be if a deal wasn’t reached. All he has to do is stay healthy to make this good deal for Boston.
Bum – That’s like saying all the Red Sox have to do is make the World Series …. easier said than done.
As long as Crochet can give at least 180 innings of sub-3 ERA pitching, I’ll be very happy. Even if it’s 2.99 ERA over 181 innings, I’m good then. I don’t expect Skubal 2024 numbers.
I just want 160 innings, Cora is not letting anyone get over 180. That’s not on the pitcher, that’s on the manager. As long as he’s available for more than 25 starts to pitch I’m a happy man. I’m really happy if he sees 160+ innings. It isn’t Cora’s managing style to have an Ace be an Ace. This is 160 over 6 years, I’m happy if it’s under 3.5, remember pitching half your games in Fenway is much different than half in spacious Comerica or whatever company bought it’s naming rights in Detroit. Fenway probably kills an ERA by a half run, it’s not Colorado but it’s noticeable.
bum – It’s true with Cora you never know because he’s so inconsistent, but last year he let Crawford pitch 183 and Houck 179.
Time will tell. The thing with Crochet, he doesn’t pitch to contact so he’s going to have high pitch counts early in games unless he’s really on and striking everyone out. Last week he threw 88 pitches in just 5 innings.
I say he has two more TJ surgeries within that 6 year time span.
Has anyone continued to pitch with 3 tj surgeries?
Pool – Yes, Tejay is one.
baseball-reference.com/players/a/antonte01.shtml
Also Isringhausen and Jonny Venters.
@Poolhalljunkies Good question. The trivia answer is Jonny Venters, who went 20-13 in 5 seasons with a 2.71 ERA and a 147 ERA+, i.e., peak Hall of Famer stuff.
Isringhausen also made MLB appearances after a third elbow reconstruction, though MLB is coy about calling it TJS. Neither seems to have pitched much after the third operation. Article is titled “The Best Tommy John Success Stories”
Overpaid
Crochet is smart to take the money now rather than wait until he blows out his arm again…
A good 33% of a season converted to years of money… Foolish owners. Injury-in-waiting…
I hope Crochet has a good career and success, lord knows he was not going to get that in Chicago.