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Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the league’s pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? We’ll be taking a look at some of the top candidates this week, starting with the American League today:

Tarik Skubal

The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner tops the list of contenders again this year. Somehow, Skubal has been even more dominant than he was last year. Through 16 starts and 102 innings, he has improved his ERA (2.29), FIP (2.11), strikeout rate (32.1%), walk rate (3.3%), SIERA (2.46), and xERA (2.61) relative to his full season numbers last year. He’s even pitching slightly deeper into games so far this year, averaging 6.37 innings per start as compared to last year’s 6.19.

For a hurler who won the pitching Triple Crown in the AL last year to improve upon that performance the very next year is remarkable, and Skubal figures to remain the favorite to win the award for a second consecutive season if he can maintain this level of production going forward. There’s plenty of competition in the AL, however, so even a minor slip up down the stretch could give the edge to another candidate.

Garrett Crochet

Crochet has been nearly as dominant as Skubal in many respects. After breaking out with the White Sox last year and getting traded to the Red Sox over the offseason, he’s turned in a 2.06 ERA and 2.53 FIP across 17 starts. Crochet leads the majors with 109 1/3 innings pitched, and while his 31.3% strikeout rate is just behind that of Skubal, he’s still struck out more batters (135) than any pitcher in baseball this year. While Crochet and Skubal appear to be more or less equals on paper, with Crochet having a lower ERA and an extra start under his belt while Skubal has stronger peripheral numbers, there are some other factors working against Boston’s ace.

Crochet is more or less untested in the second half after throwing just 40 2/3 innings after July 6 last year. After that date, the lefty never recorded an out in the fifth inning or later and topped out at just 77 pitches in an outing. Even with that less strenuous workload, his numbers suffered as he posted a 4.87 ERA down the stretch. Chicago’s decision to handle Crochet gently down the stretch last year was an understandable one given his injury history, but it creates some uncertainty about how he’ll handle the first true full-season starter’s workload of his career. Additionally, Crochet has a 7-4 record on a team that might wind up selling at the trade deadline this year. While the Cy Young is an individual award, some voters consider a pitcher’s record and their team’s success, which could benefit other candidates with more dominant records on clear playoff teams.

Max Fried

Signed to the largest deal for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history this past offseason, Fried has stepped up as the Yankees’ new ace while Gerrit Cole rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Fried has a sterling 1.92 ERA in 17 starts (108 innings), though he’s done so without the gaudy strikeout numbers of other top Cy Young contenders. His 24.5% strikeout rate is above-average but not otherworldly, but he makes up for that by walking just 4.9% of his opponents and generating grounders at a 53.1% rate.

Even with a career-high 6.5% barrel rate allowed this year, Fried remains one of the sport’s best hurlers when it comes to pitching to contact. His 2.74 FIP and 3.17 SIERA are both elite as well, and more traditional voters will love his 10-2 record, which is good for the most pitcher wins in baseball this year and the best winning percentage in the AL.

Hunter Brown

Brown is in the midst of an exciting breakout season with the Astros at just 26 years old. His 1.88 ERA is the lowest figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, and while he has just 91 innings of work under his belt so far, he’s still averaging more than six innings per start. Brown’s heroics have helped push the Astros back to the front of the pack in the AL West after a tough start to the year.

There are some reasons to doubt Brown’s ability to sustain quite this level of dominance. He’s benefited from a .244 BABIP and an 88.4% strand rate. That good fortune on batted balls and sequencing is very likely to regress toward the mean eventually, though his 2.84 FIP and 2.96 SIERA are still excellent thanks largely to a 31.6% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate and a strong 46.8% ground-ball rate.

Kris Bubic

Bubic has picked up the slack for injured ace Cole Ragans in the Kansas City rotation and has put together an elite season that rivals any of his competition on this list. He’s posted an excellent 2.18 ERA, fanned 26% of his opponents and kept his walk rate down at a sharp 7.3%. Bubic has had some good fortune when it comes to home runs, however; only 4.8% of the fly-balls he’s allowed have cleared the fence, as compared to the 15.1% homer-to-fly-ball rate he carried into the season. It’s doubtful he can continue quite that level of home run suppression, but he has the makings of a front-line arm even if a few more of those flies start leaving the yard.

Bubic has tossed 91 innings in 15 starts, averaging just a hair over six frames per outing. It’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the season wears on. Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and pitched just 66 combined innings between the big leagues and minors. His 91 frames are already his most in a season since he pitched 142 2/3 innings in 2022.

Jacob deGrom

This is the healthiest deGrom has been in a half decade, but you wouldn’t notice virtually any layoff based on the results. The multi-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.08 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 95 1/3 innings in his age-37 season. He’s set down 25.9% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 5.5% of the batters he’s faced. deGrom had some short starts early, but he’s averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per outing with a 1.67 ERA dating back to April 18.

As with Bubic, there are workload questions. This is already the most innings deGrom has pitched in a season since 2019. He’s only 33 1/3 innings away from matching his combined total from 2022-24 (majors and minors included).

Other Options

The field of potential AL Cy Young candidates this year is a very deep one. Framber Valdez remains one of the sport’s top ground ball pitchers with a 59.5% grounder rate to go alongside his 2.88 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 16 starts. Joe Ryan has a 2.86 ERA, including a 2.38 mark over the past two months. Drew Rasmussen boasts a 2.45 ERA, but his 84 1/3 innings place him more than 30 frames behind the league leaders. They’re all pitching well enough that a big second half could get them in the conversation. Nathan Eovaldi has an absurd 1.56 ERA on the season, but he’s missed the past month with triceps inflammation. Relievers Andrés Muñoz (18 saves, 1.21 ERA), Aroldis Chapman (14 saves, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Hader (21 saves, 1.73 ERA) have all been brilliant, but it’s hard enough for relievers to get consideration in a normal season — let alone one where the top group of starters has performed this well.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL Cy Young voting? Will Skubal reign supreme once again, or could another challenger step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

MLBTR Podcast: Garrett Crochet’s Extension, Problems In Atlanta, And Other Early-Season Storylines

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Tim Heitman, Imagn Images

Red Sox Sign Garrett Crochet To Six-Year Extension

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Today: The Red Sox have officially announced Crochet’s extension. The full breakdown was reported by Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Crochet gets a $4MM signing bonus followed by a salary of $24MM next year. He then gets $28MM annually from 2027 through 2030, followed by $30MM in 2031. Per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, there’s also a $15MM conditional club option for 2032 if Crochet misses 120 days due to a significant arm injury. His opt-out after 2030 would also be void if such an absence occurs before then.

March 31: The Red Sox have reportedly reached agreement with new ace Garrett Crochet on a six-year, $170MM extension that goes into effect in 2026. The CAA client can opt out after the 2030 season. The deal, which does not have any deferred money, includes an additional $10MM in escalators based on Cy Young finishes and a $2MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade, though there is not any no-trade protection.

Crochet, who turns 26 in June, was on track to hit free agency after the 2026 season. The extension leaves unchanged his $3.8MM salary for this year. It buys out his final arbitration season and five free agent years, though the opt-out means it “only” extends the team control window by four seasons.

Boston acquired Crochet in one of the offseason’s biggest trades. They packaged four prospects, including their two most recent first-rounders Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery, to land the All-Star lefty from the White Sox. Crochet had seemed likely to move at last summer’s deadline until a late revelation that his camp was seeking an extension if he were to continue pitching through a playoff race.

Crochet was wrapping up his first full season as a starting pitcher. The 6’6″ southpaw threw a total of 132 innings in college at Tennessee. His draft year was cut short by the cancelation of the 2020 college season. The White Sox selected him 11th overall and fast-tracked him to the big leagues as a reliever. Crochet pitched well in that role for his first year-plus but blew out his elbow in Spring Training 2022. He underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him that season and limited him to 12 2/3 innings the following year.

By the time he’d returned from the Tommy John rehab, the White Sox were in full rebuild mode. They took the high-upside play of giving Crochet a chance to start going into 2024. They probably didn’t expect him to pitch as well as he did. Crochet’s stuff was still overpowering as a starter. He struck out 35.2% of opposing hitters en route to a 3.02 ERA in 107 1/3 frames through the All-Star Break. Chicago dramatically pulled back his workload after the trade deadline. While they kept him on a regular rotation schedule, the White Sox limited him to 2-4 inning appearances for the final two months of the season. That was a prudent approach to keep him healthy after essentially two straight lost years.

Crochet finished the year with a 3.58 ERA across 146 2/3 innings. He struck out 209 hitters while issuing only 33 walks. No other pitcher with at least 100 innings posted a better strikeout rate than his 35.1% mark. On a per-pitch basis, only Blake Snell got more swinging strikes. Crochet’s already impressive ERA was probably a bit inflated by pitching in front of a poor White Sox defense. His swing-and-miss ability pointed to ace upside so long as he could maintain his stuff while working a regular starting workload for a full season.

The Red Sox clearly believe that’s realistic. They parted with a decent amount of prospect talent to acquire Crochet’s final two years of arbitration eligibility. They almost immediately opened extension conversations. Unlike last summer, there was never any doubt that Crochet would pitch into October this year (so long as he stays healthy) regardless of whether a deal got done. Crochet indicated he’d table discussions come Opening Day. That’s a common refrain among players, but it’s not unheard of for players to back off that self-imposed deadline if there’s only a narrow gap as the regular season begins.

Crochet made his first start in a Boston uniform in the interim. He worked five innings of two-run ball with four strikeouts against Texas on Opening Day. While nothing got done last week, he told WEEI’s Rob Bradford on Friday that talks had gone “to the wire” and said that boded well for whenever they reopened discussions. They were evidently close enough to continue communications and get the deal done.

It will not have any impact on this year’s payroll calculations. Crochet is making a modest salary, as his arbitration earning potential had been limited by his lack of innings. That’ll jump beginning next year. The specific salary structure has not been reported, but the contract will count for roughly $28.33MM against Boston’s luxury tax ledger each season from 2026-31.

Crochet would likely have earned something in the $8-10MM range for his final year of arbitration. The Red Sox are valuing the would-be free agent seasons around $32MM annually. That’s a similar range to what Snell commanded in terms of net present value on his five-year free agent deal with the Dodgers. Corbin Burnes got $35MM per season on a six-year deal with Arizona, while Max Fried received a $27.25MM annual value and got eight years from the Yankees. The Red Sox valued Crochet’s free agent years the way they would for a #1/2 type starter.

Crochet technically sets a new standard for starting pitcher extensions in the 4-5 year service bucket. Jacob deGrom’s $120.5MM deal with the Mets from six years ago had been the only nine-figure contract for a pitcher in that service class. Crochet easily topped that. Still, his extension arguably fits better in the 5-6 year service bracket, since it doesn’t go into effect until his final year of arbitration. Nine-figure contracts for pitchers in that class are more common, but Crochet still handily beats the recent guarantees for Luis Castillo ($108MM) and José Berríos ($131MM).

This is the fifth significant contract that the Sox have on the books for at least two years beyond this one. Alex Bregman will make $40MM annually through 2027, though he can opt out after each of the next two seasons and a good portion of his money is deferred. Rafael Devers is signed through 2033 on salaries ranging from $27.5MM to $31MM. Trevor Story will make $25MM per season between 2026-27, assuming he doesn’t opt out next winter. Masataka Yoshida is under contract for $18.6MM annually for another two years.

It’s a risky move for the Red Sox, one that reaffirms their belief that Crochet will be a top-of-the-rotation starter for years to come. They’re buying what they expect to be his prime, as he’s signed from ages 26-32. If he stays healthy and lives up to the ace potential, Crochet could opt out before his age-32 season and potentially command another five- or six-year contract.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Red Sox and Crochet agreed to a six-year, $170MM deal beginning in ’26 with the opt-out and no deferred money. Robert Murray of FanSided was first with the $10MM in escalators, which Mark Feinsand of MLB.com specified were based on Cy Young placement. Feinsand had the assignment bonus and absence of no-trade protection.

Image courtesy of Chris Tilley, Imagn Images.

Red Sox, Garrett Crochet Expected To Table Extension Talks

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March 28: While talks are on pause because of Crochet’s self-imposed Opening Day cutoff, it seems the sides got relatively close. Crochet tells WEEI’s Rob Bradford that discussions went “down to the wire” and that he didn’t feel there was a large gap. Asked by Bradford if that provided reason for optimism whenever talks resume — presumably next offseason — Crochet replied that was “definitely fair to say.”

March 27: Earlier this month, newly-acquired Red Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet set a deadline of Opening Day in extension talks with his new club. With Crochet scheduled to take the mound for Boston against the Rangers this afternoon, that deadline has now passed and it seems as though no deal is in place between the sides. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo relays that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters “not to expect” a Crochet extension at this point, while WEEI’s Rob Bradford adds that Breslow said he intends to respect Crochet’s stated desire to not negotiate during the season.

Ever since Crochet came to Boston in a trade where the Red Sox surrendered a package of four prospects headlined by top-100 talents Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery, hammering out an extension with the southpaw has seemed likely to be a priority for the club with just two seasons remaining until the southpaw reaches free agency. The 2024 All-Star made his first career MLB start on Opening Day for the White Sox last year, but that lack of experience did little to slow him down as he pitched to a 3.58 ERA (115 ERA+) while posting a sterling 2.69 FIP and striking out an incredible 35.1% of his opponents in 32 starts.

As much as the 2024 campaign did to establish Crochet as one of the league’s premiere front-of-the-rotation arms, however, it did little to settle his value on a long-term deal. As previously mentioned, the lefty had no experience as a starter in the majors or minors prior to 2024 due to injuries limiting him throughout his young career. He’d not thrown even 55 innings in a professional season before 2024, and even last year he threw just 146 innings while averaging roughly 3 1/3 innings per start in the second half. The fact that the lefty has not yet participated in a full MLB season with a starter’s typical workload works against Crochet’s value, even as the 25-year-old’s youth, tantalizing stuff and huge strikeout numbers make a case for him as among the most valuable assets in the sport.

Given the uncertainty surrounding Crochet’s value, it’s not necessarily shocking the sides were unable to agree to terms. Reporting last summer indicated that Crochet may have been targeting Tyler Glasnow’s $136.5MM guarantee with the Dodgers as a ballpark comparison for his extension talks with the White Sox, though it’s unclear how his demands may have changed after moving to Boston. That sort of outlay for a pitcher with Crochet’s health question marks may have been difficult for the Red Sox to stomach without getting to see him pitch up close, and now it appears they’ll have that opportunity in 2025. There’s nothing stopping the sides from resuming extension talks next offseason, though considering that it’ll be Crochet’s final before free agency it’s likely that another strong season from the lefty would leave the Red Sox to pay nearly full-market value in an extension next winter.

In other Red Sox news, Sean McAdam of MassLive reported this afternoon that outfielder Masataka Yoshida is headed to Boston for a consultation as he deals with a back issue. McAdam adds that Yoshida, who is on the injured list as he rehabs from offseason shoulder surgery, will remain in Boston to continue his rehab following the consultation. Yoshida was previously expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment as he builds up arm strength ahead of a return to the outfield for the first time (aside from a one-inning cameo last year) since 2023, though it now appears he’ll rehab with the big league club for at least the time being. A career .285/.343/.433 hitter across two seasons in the majors, Yoshida served as Boston’s regular DH last year but was bumped out of that spot by the signing of third baseman Alex Bregman, who pushed incumbent third baseman Rafael Devers to DH.

Garrett Crochet Sets Opening Day Deadline For Extension Talks

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Ever since they swung a deal with the White Sox to land prized southpaw Garrett Crochet back in December, extending the southpaw’s stay in Boston beyond his final two years of team control has appeared to be a top priority for the Red Sox. The club reportedly approached Crochet about the possibility in early January, and at that point Crochet expressed interest in getting a deal done. With that being said, however, Crochet has seemed to be more interested in betting on himself of late. The latest news regarding the state of talks comes from a recent interview Crochet sat down for with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, where he revealed he was not interested in continuing extension discussions into the regular season when it begins on March 27.

“For me personally, once the season starts, I would like for whatever conversations are currently being had to be placed on the back burner until the following offseason,” said Crochet, as relayed by Speier. Crochet went on to note that he doesn’t want the possibility of an extension to serve as a distraction for either himself or his teammates once the regular season gets underway.

Between the newly imposed deadline and comments Crochet made to MassLive’s Chris Cotillo last month where he expressed interest in playing out the 2025 season before signing a long-term deal, it’s perhaps not a shock that more than 65% of respondents to a recent MLBTR Poll suggested that they expect Crochet to enter the 2025 season without an extension in place. With that being said, it’s possible that Crochet’s disinterest in negotiating beyond Opening Day convinces the sides to work more aggressively towards a deal in the final weeks of Spring Training. For his part, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow expressed to Speier both his interest in getting Crochet locked up long-term and confidence that the front office would have the financial support of ownership when it comes to getting a deal done.

“When there is an opportunity that makes sense for the Red Sox, we have the support of ownership,” Breslow said, as relayed by Speier. “…I think if there are opportunities to keep players that we identify as cornerstones of a run of success in a Red Sox uniform, that will be greeted with the same enthusiasm.”

That Crochet is the sort of player Red Sox brass—and ownership—might be willing to extend themselves in order to add is hardly a surprise. After all, the club gave up a massive prospect package headlined by top-100 talents Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery in order to acquire Crochet during this offseason’s Winter Meetings, and Crochet’s talent speaks for itself after he posted a 3.58 ERA and 2.69 FIP in 32 starts for the White Sox last year in his first season as a big league starting pitcher.

The raw ability Crochet flashed during the 2024 campaign combined with the 25-year-old’s youth should be enough to earn the southpaw a hefty contract in free agency, so long as he stays healthy and effective over the next two seasons. That qualifier is necessary for virtually any pitcher in an age where season-ending surgeries with rehab timelines of a year or longer becoming increasingly commonplace, but it’s especially true for Crochet. After all, the lefty’s 146 innings of work last year were nearly triple what he’d ever done in the majors prior to this year, and well above the 65 innings Crochet maxed out at even during his college days.

Injuries cost Crochet almost the entirety of the first stage of his career, and it would hardly be surprising if the Red Sox had some trepidation about offering the lefty a massive extension given his injury history. With that being said, it’s difficult to argue that the Red Sox couldn’t afford to pay Crochet a hefty sum. After all, the club’s projected payroll for 2025 according to RosterResource is just $210MM even after signing Alex Bregman to a massive three-year guarantee last month. While that’s a bump up from recent years, it’s lower than even the club’s 2022 payroll, to say nothing of the $242MM the club spent in 2019.

Perhaps, then, the best thing for both sides could be waiting until after the 2025 campaign to get a deal done. If Crochet puts up a strong season this year, that could give the lefty a more credible claim to the sort of huge extension he’s surely hoping to land while also affording the Red Sox an up-close look at him over the course of the 2025 season, which could give them more confidence in locking up the southpaw on a deal that could reasonably stretch into his mid-to-late 30s.

Poll: Will The Red Sox Extend Garrett Crochet This Spring?

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The Red Sox had their biggest offseason in years this winter, and after a failed pursuit of Juan Soto kicked things off in earnest by pulling off a massive trade with the White Sox where they sent multiple top prospects to Chicago in exchange for the club’s top left-handed pitcher. That Garrett Crochet deal naturally brought to mind the Chris Sale swap from nearly a decade ago, but one major difference between the two deals is the amount of team control remaining: Sale was locked up for three seasons when the Red Sox acquired him, while Crochet only has two years of team control remaining.

That shorter team control window could pose a problem for the Red Sox, given that their deep cache of impact, upper-level prospect talent is only just beginning to reach the major leagues. If Crochet doesn’t stay in Boston beyond the 2026 season, he may only overlap with top hitters like Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer for a year or so before the club will once again have a vacancy at the top of their rotation. Fortunately for fans in Boston, there seems to be mutual interest in an extension. Crochet spoke about the state of extension talks with the club last month and emphasized how appealing the idea of remaining in Boston long-term was to him just days after the club reportedly approached his camp about the possibility of an extension.

Of course, mutual interest in an extension won’t always lead to a deal and it’s also possible that Crochet’s feelings have shifted. He was asked about the extension possibility again last week, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, and seemed a bit more open to taking his time: “I think that the long-term security is definitely something attractive. As players, we like to look out for our family first. But with last year being my first taste of starting, part of me also wants to see what I could do with the full season of innings workload. [I] was on a short leash. Part of me wants to see what I could do in a full season before, I suppose, locking myself into a certain bracket of player.”

Crochet and the club will still need to line up on what appropriate value for a deal would be, and that could be quite difficult given Crochet’s extremely unusual career path to this point. Drafted 11th overall by the White Sox in the 2020 draft despite the fact that he had spent most of his time in the SEC pitching out of the bullpen, Crochet was brought straight to the major leagues as a reliever and pitched to a phenomenal 2.54 ERA in 60 1/3 innings of work for Chicago from 2020 to 2021. At the time, the club appeared to be eyeing a rotation role for Crochet in 2022, but he underwent Tommy John surgery that April and did not pitch again in the majors until late in the 2023 season.

By that point, the White Sox had already begun rebuilding. That gave them little reason not to explore using Crochet out of the rotation, and so he stretched out over the winter and was tapped as the club’s Opening Day starter for his first career MLB start last year. The lefty was nothing short of brilliant in 32 starts last year, but nearly tripled his career-high workload with 146 innings of work. The White Sox carefully managed his innings throughout the season in an effort to keep him healthy, and he threw just 44 2/3 innings total over his final 14 starts, less than 3 1/3 innings per start. That lack of volume could raise some questions about Crochet’s ability to stay healthy while handling a traditional starter’s workload, particularly given that his ERA in the first half of the season was just 3.00 while that figured ballooned to 4.84 in the second half.

Those potential workload concerns could tamp down Boston’s willingness to offer Crochet a premium guarantee, even as his underlying numbers suggest a ceiling commensurate with the game’s very best starting pitchers. Crochet’s 2.69 FIP would’ve trailed only Cy Young award winners Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal if he had enough innings to qualify, and his eye-popping 35.1% strikeout rate led all starters who pitched even 20 innings last year. It’s also worth noting that Crochet won’t celebrate his 26th birthday until nearly halfway through the 2025 season, and that youth could help to ease some of Boston’s concerns about his longer-term outlook in terms of health and durability.

With so many competing factors to consider, it’s fair to argue that Crochet is one of the most difficult players to pin down in terms of value. Prior to last summer’s trade deadline, reporting indicated that Crochet may view Tyler Glasnow’s $136.5MM guarantee with the Dodgers as a target for extension talks although, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed in a post for Front Office subscribers back in August, Glasnow had six years of service time at the time of his deal with L.A. which could make it difficult for Crochet to reach those same heights. If that’s still Crochet’s asking price, it’s possible the Red Sox might prefer to play his first season under club control out and revisit negotiations later this year or next offseason. With that being said, a big season from Crochet would surely push his asking price up substantially. That figures to be especially true if he manages to stay healthy and qualify for the ERA title this year.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out between Crochet and the Red Sox? Will they come together on an extension before Opening Day? Or will the Red Sox wait to see how Crochet performs with the club during his first season in Boston before making a decision? Have your say in the poll below:

Garrett Crochet Discusses Extension Talks With Red Sox

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Newly-acquired Red Sox lefty Garrett Crochet was in attendance for today’s Fenway Fest event in Boston, and he spoke to reporters (include Chris Cotillo of MassLive) about the state of extension talks between Red Sox brass and Crochet’s own camp. The comments come on the heels of reporting earlier this week that suggested the sides had begun preliminary discussions about a longer-term deal.

“There have been conversations with my agent and the front office, just kind of getting a feel for one another,” Crochet said, as relayed by Cotillo. “Staying in Boston long-term is something that has a lot of merit in my mind and something I think would be awesome. In the meantime, I’m just focusing on spring and getting ready for the upcoming season, trying to stay focused one day at a time. When something’s presented, then we’ll attack it.”

Crochet, 25, enjoyed a breakout season with the White Sox last year as he moved from a relief role into the rotation. He made the most of the opportunity, pitching to a solid 3.58 ERA in 146 innings of work with a 2.69 FIP and an eye-popping 35.1% strikeout rate. That dominant performance on a team that broke the all-time MLB loss record made a trade nearly inevitable, and Boston pounced on the opportunity during the Winter Meetings last month and shipped a package headlined by catching prospect Kyle Teel and outfield prospect Braden Montgomery to Chicago in exchange for Crochet’s services.

The southpaw immediately adds a clear #1 starter to the front of the Red Sox rotation, but with a young core of talent reaching the major leagues and knocking on the door at Triple-A, locking up Crochet beyond his remaining two years of control would make plenty of sense for Boston. Crochet is clearly open to such an arrangement, and his comments today only served to confirm the lefty’s interest in locking in a longer-term guarantee. It’s hardly a surprise that Crochet would be open to listening on extension talks. He’s suffered through a number of injury-marred seasons already in his career, and that elevated injury risk surely makes a long-term guarantee more attractive.

To that end, he made clear prior to the trade deadline last summer that if he was going to go over his established innings limit to pitch in the 2024 postseason after a midseason trade, he would want to get an extension worked out prior to a deal coming together. Of course, no deal was ultimately made and now Crochet is in Boston. It’s unclear exactly what sort of deal either Crochet or the Red Sox are angling for at this point, though one noteworthy reference point is a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan over the summer that suggested Crochet was seeking a nine-figure deal at the time.

Crochet wasn’t the only Red Sox player to discuss the state of extension talks today, as top prospects Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell both spoke to WEEI today and revealed that neither has been approached by the Red Sox about the possibility of a pre-debut extension. That’s not necessarily a major shock, given that pre-debut extensions are generally quite rare. They’ve become more common in recent years, however, as evidenced by both Jackson Chourio of the Brewers and Colt Keith of the Tigers signing deals of that sort last offseason alone.

The Red Sox would surely love to lock up either Anthony or Campbell beyond their current windows of control. Anthony is rated by Baseball America as the #1 prospect in all of baseball, while Campbell isn’t ranked too far behind at #24. Both figure to make their big league debuts in 2025, though the exact timing of those debuts remains up in the air. There’s been some speculation that Campbell, in particular, could be in the conversation for an Opening Day roster spot should he manage to win the second base job away from David Hamilton and Vaughn Grissom in Spring Training this spring, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if both youngsters are in the majors by the time the first half of the 2025 season comes to a close.

While there’s certainly value from a player’s perspective in locking in a major payday before they so much as take their first big league at-bat, they also typically come with much lower price tags relative to extensions signed as soon as during a player’s pre-arb years as a big leaguer. Chourio’s extension with the Brewers guaranteed him a record-setting $82MM last winter, but that pales in comparison to the nine-figure deals secured by players like Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. once they had already established themselves as star-caliber big leaguers. That said, pre-debut extensions aren’t without risk for the team either; even elite prospects can go on to struggle in the majors, with Jon Singleton of the Astros and Scott Kingery of the Phillies standing out as examples of players who signed pre-debut extensions and then went on to provide their clubs with little value over the life of those deals.

Given that, it’s perhaps not surprising for the sides to have not yet engaged in extension talks. Anthony and Campbell may well both prefer to bet on themselves early in their careers as they eye either a more lucrative extension down the line or free agency once their time under team control comes to a close. On the other hand, the Red Sox may prefer to see how Anthony, Campbell, and other top prospects like Marcelo Mayer develop before making extension offers as they have over the years with players like Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts.

Red Sox, Garrett Crochet Have Had Preliminary Extension Talks

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The Red Sox made one of the biggest trade acquisitions of the winter, landing Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for four prospects. Boston apparently has interest in keeping their newly-acquired southpaw for the longer term.

Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox and Crochet’s camp at CAA have had at least preliminary discussions about a long-term deal. Tomorrow is the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures on salaries for the 2025 season. That doesn’t preclude the sides from continuing to negotiate, but it stands to reason they’ll attempt to hammer out a deal to avoid an arbitration hearing for this year.

Crochet is coming off his first full season as a starting pitcher. His early-career injuries and usage out of the White Sox’s bullpen limited his arbitration earnings. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the southpaw for a $2.9MM salary. He’s controllable for one additional year and is on track to reach free agency after his age-27 season.

For the next two seasons, Crochet should offer immense surplus value. He turned in top-of-the-rotation numbers on a rate basis last year. Crochet worked to a 3.58 earned run average with a massive 35.1% strikeout percentage. Chicago limited his workload within starts down the stretch. He finished the season with 146 innings despite taking all 32 turns through the rotation. Boston presumably won’t have any qualms about fully unleashing Crochet in his second season as a starter.

Crochet’s contract status was a key issue heading into last summer’s deadline. The southpaw seemed an obvious candidate to move as the ace of a team that was headed to the worst season in modern history. Chicago held onto him instead, in large part because his camp indicated he wanted an extension to pitch into October. To be clear, there’s no indication that Crochet would take that stance again now that he has a full season under his belt. At the time, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote that the asking price would’ve been above nine figures. Passan noted that Crochet’s camp could compare him to Tyler Glasnow, who signed for four years and $110MM in new money on his extension with the Dodgers.

It’s not a perfect comparison. Glasnow was one year from free agency and had banked significantly greater earnings. Crochet is an extra season away. However, Crochet’s second half probably pushes his asking price higher than where it had been at the deadline. He finished the year healthy and is a few months closer to free agency. Even last year’s capped innings tally is above Glasnow’s career high of 134 frames in an MLB season.

Jacob deGrom holds the record for the largest extension for a pitcher with between four and five years of service time. deGrom secured $120.5MM from the Mets covering his age 32-35 seasons. That was an anomaly, as deGrom was a late bloomer but was coming off a Cy Young season. Crochet would certainly look to top more recent precedents like Pablo López’s $73.5MM deal with the Twins and the $71.5575MM in new money which Mitch Keller got from Pittsburgh last spring. A four- or five-year term would seem the most likely midpoint if the sides can reach an agreement. That’d allow the Sox to buy out two or three free agent seasons while Crochet would still have an opportunity to cash in as a free agent at 30 or 31.

Giants Declined To Include Bryce Eldridge In Tucker/Crochet Trade Offers

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The Giants were known to have had interest in Kyle Tucker before the Astros traded the outfielder to the Cubs, and The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly shared some details on that pursuit plus the new information that the Giants were one of the many teams who talked to the White Sox about Garrett Crochet.  San Francisco “made legitimate offers” for both Tucker and Crochet, Baggarly writes, “to the point that [the Giants] were said to feel a bit uncomfortable with the players they were willing to sacrifice.”  However, neither offer included top prospect Bryce Eldridge, and thus no trades materialized since the Astros and Sox each viewed Eldridge’s inclusion as “a prerequisite.”

Eldridge was the 16th overall pick of the 2023 draft, and he has already hit .292/.379/.514 with 29 home runs over 649 plate appearances in the minors even before he turned 20 years old last October.  This hot hitting saw Eldridge moved up the ladder to four different affiliates during the 2024 season, though it is worth noting that his numbers dropped off (in small sample sizes) as he played higher levels of minor league ball.  Eldridge had a more modest .785 OPS in 40 PA with Double-A Richmond and then a .601 OPS in 35 PA with Triple-A Sacramento.

Since he has already reached Triple-A, it isn’t out of the question that Eldridge’s MLB debut could come during the 2025 season, especially given how San Francisco was already aggressive with his early promotions.  LaMonte Wade Jr. is a free agent next winter and has been the subject of trade speculation even this offseason, so the path should soon be clear for Eldridge as the Bay Area’s first baseman of the future.  While the Giants will naturally want to see him post better numbers in the upper minors before calling him to the Show, it is easy to see the potential in the 6’7″, 223-pound first baseman.

Eldridge fits the mold of a classic left-handed slugger, and scouting reports from both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America praise his huge power and his mature approach at the plate.  Pipeline and BA each place Eldridge 35th in the most recent editions of their league-wide top-100 prospects rankings.  He is the only Giants minor leaguer in Baseball America’s rankings, while Pipeline also has James Tibbs III (the 13th overall pick of the 2024 draft) 88th on their list.

In either case, Eldridge is certainly the top prospect in a San Francisco farm system that is considered to be relatively thin, so it isn’t surprising that the Giants aren’t eager to move him in any trades.  Obviously this is a big roadblock in negotiations, since as Baggarly notes, “any team dangling a solid-average everyday player or better is going to start by asking for Eldridge — and not likely to move off that position.”

The White Sox were known to be focusing on young position players in exchange for Crochet, and indeed three of the four prospects Chicago received from the Red Sox in the trade package were position players.  As per Pipeline’s rankings of San Francisco’s farm system, the Giants are slightly deeper in position players than pitchers, though not to the level of Boston’s depth.  Likewise, the Cubs still have a wealth of position players in their minor league system even after moving Cam Smith as part of the Tucker trade.

Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey and GM Zack Minasian have yet to complete a trade in their limited time leading the San Francisco front office, though in the view of rival executives, Baggarly hears the Giants have been “hyperactive in attempting to generate trade dialogue.”  Since questions remain about how much ownership is willing to commit to the payroll this season, the trade market could therefore be the Giants’ best method of adding talent to the roster, though that creates another layer of complication if other teams are chiefly focused on Eldridge among the minor league prospects.  As Baggarly frames the situation, some other front offices have been trying to see if they can get Posey or Minasian to bite on an unfavorable trade out of sheer inexperience, which has “led to a few opening offers…that have amounted to non-starters and time wasters.”

In terms of other trade candidates, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle details some of the players the Giants could still look to pry away from rival teams, and reports that the Giants “had some interest” in Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner earlier this winter.  The past-tense phrasing, however, indicates that San Francisco moved on after signing Willy Adames as the new everyday shortstop, so Tyler Fitzgerald now looks to move from shortstop to second base.

MLBTR Podcast: Winter Meetings Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

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