The Nationals continue to evaluate candidates for the final spot in their rotation. Manager Dave Martinez confirmed to reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that four pitchers will be in the Opening Day rotation if healthy: MacKenzie Gore, Michael Soroka, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams. The Nats haven’t revealed in what order those pitchers will take the ball, but the more meaningful development is that there’s only one rotation spot up for grabs.
There appear to be three candidates for that job. Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz are coming off solid rookie seasons. The Nats added former NPB southpaw Shinnosuke Ogasawara on an affordable two-year, $3.5MM free agent deal. All three are left-handers who are in their mid-20s and aiming to break camp for the first time in their MLB careers.
Parker is the most experienced of the bunch. Washington called up the 6’4″ southpaw in the middle of April. He stuck in the rotation for the remainder of the season. Parker made 29 starts and worked to a 4.29 earned run average through 151 innings. He posted a slightly below-average 20.6% strikeout rate against a solid 6.7% walk percentage. Parker doesn’t have huge stuff but looks the part of a solid back-end command artist.
Herz has the opposite profile. He missed bats on nearly 13% of his offerings. Herz posted a 27.7% strikeout rate, continuing a trend of plus swing-and-miss numbers he showed throughout his minor league career. His minor league walk numbers wouldn’t point to a long-term future in the rotation, but he showed surprisingly reasonable control (9.4% walk rate) over his first 19 MLB starts. He turned in a 4.16 ERA through 88 2/3 frames.
Ogasawara’s profile is closer to Parker’s. He allowed 3.62 earned runs per nine over his nine seasons in Japan. Ogasawara worked to a 3.12 ERA across 144 1/3 frames for Chunichi Dragons last season. He had a well below-average 13.6% strikeout rate that explains his modest deal. He walked fewer than 4% of batters faced, so he’s a good strike-thrower, but it’s not clear whether his stuff will play against big league competition.
No one from this trio has had an especially impressive camp. Parker’s results have been the best. He has allowed four runs through 7 1/3 innings, striking out seven without issuing a walk. Ogasawara has surrendered 11 runs (seven earned) with five walks and six strikeouts over 9 1/3 frames. Herz has allowed eight runs (six earned) with seven free passes and only three punchouts through 6 2/3 innings. While it’s not worth reading much into a handful of Spring Training appearances, Parker’s greater experience seemed to give him a leg up on the job entering camp. If that were the case, it’s hard to argue that Herz and Ogasawara have shown enough to overtake him to this point.
Dj herz had solid rookie yr
Why are they placing so much confidence in a guy like soroka?
Soroka changed his pitch mix last season and was utterly dominant from that point on. The Nats saw enough to pay him to be a starter.
Because he’s still relatively young himself. Nats are getting close to coming out of their rebuild and a pitcher with Soroka’s talent and refined repertoire could be huge in taking the next step forward
I guess they see much more than us.
Soroka has been much better than the 3 candidates. Has actually pitched the best. Don’t know if it will translate to regular season success. What I wonder about is if a Japanese starter can pitch in a five man rotation. Don’t they have six man rotations in Japan?
Soroka has been lights out in spring training…
Gore will get the opening day nod but I believe Soroka will go second…
I’d go Williams 3rd in the rotation(because it’s usually and big bullpen game) then Irvng 4th…he will be an inning eater this year…
Williams hitting the DL in 3..2..1
The real question isn’t who wins the fifth starter job—it’s why the Nationals are even running this competition at all. The Nationals are in a rebuilding phase, meaning development should take priority over immediate performance. But the way this battle is framed—favoring Parker’s experience over Herz’s swing-and-miss upside or Ogasawara’s unknown ceiling—suggests the Nats are thinking about stability rather than maximizing long-term value.
The truly sharp move? Start Herz despite the risk, let him work through control issues at the MLB level, and use Parker as a spot starter or bulk reliever. If Herz flames out, Parker is still available. If Herz develops into a legitimate mid-rotation arm, the Nationals just unlocked hidden value for free. Instead of playing it safe, Washington should be treating this as a calculated risk to maximize long-term gains.
I agree with your reasoning but Parker is development since he ramped up to 150 IP after far fewer before then and the development part is that he was better the first half before tiring the second… so switching to swing man won’t help give him a chance to see if he can become a plus option across a full season as they theoretically get out of their rebuild and have him controlled for many more years. One of the vets makes more sense to open space for Hertz in the way you suggest but I guess that wasn’t their plan for some reason when they signed Soroka and Williams