After a busy weekend, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Veterans return to free agency:
While the free agent market was largely picked clean as recently as last week, Article XX(B) free agents (as well as a selection of other players) had opt-out clauses this weekend. Many of those players took those opportunities, and those who did not get added to their club’s 40-man roster are now back on the open market. Among the names to return to free agency are infielder Brandon Drury, southpaw Ryan Yarbrough, infielder Nick Ahmed, and right-handers Adam Ottavino and Jake Woodford. It’s possible many of the players who returned to free agency over the weekend could find new clubs in relatively short order, as outfielder Manuel Margot did when he was released by the Brewers, only to sign with the Tigers less than 24 hours later. In Margot’s case, he managed to garner a major league offer, but most players will likely be limited to minor league deals.
2. Hand surgeries out west:
The clubs that previously shared the Bay Area both have position players going under the knife today, as Giants outfielder Jerar Encarnacion is set to undergo surgery on his fractured left hand later today. In West Sacramento, meanwhile, A’s second baseman Zack Gelof is scheduled to undergo hamate surgery to repair a fracture of his own after he was hit by a pitch on his right hand last week. Both players are tentatively expected to be out until May, although more specific timetables for their returns to action are expected at some point after the procedures are completed. A’s top infield prospect Max Muncy (no relation to the former Athletic and current Dodgers third baseman) figures to fill in for Gelof at the keystone while he’s out of commission, while the Giants could rotate players through the DH slot in the lineup while Encarnacion is out.
3. Extension season is heating up:
It’s been a busy few days on the extension front, with multiple players landing long-term deals with their club over the weekend. Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk agreed to a $58MM pact that will keep him in Toronto for five more seasons, while Guardians righty Tanner Bibee landed a five-year deal of his own that guarantees him $48MM. Earlier last week, Diamondbacks right-hander Justin Martinez and Reds catcher Jose Trevino both reached deals of their own that will keep them in town long-term. As Spring Training winds down, will any other players and clubs use the last few days before Opening Day to hammer out a long-term agreement?
It remains to be seen if the Reds give an extension to any of their core guys. Based on history, I am not hopeful but hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Who do you feel good about extending? I feel like Elly is the only surefire stud and his agent is Scott Boras…
McLain, Steer and Stephenson were the ones I thought would be good, but I doubt they would extend Stephenson now.
I have always expected Elly to go bright lights, big city. They will probably deal him in year five.
Yea, besides Elly, all of those guys feel risky, and the Reds are an org that doesn’t seem interested in calculated gambles. They want no dead money on the payroll at all times. That’s frustrating for fans, but it’s a valid approach for a lower-mid payroll franchise.
There’s real bust risk on most of those guys. Stephenson isn’t an impressive catcher. CES still might be nothing at all. Players like Steer tend not to age well. McLain took such a long time healing last year that you probably want to see if he’s full strength for more than the length of Spring Training. Elly could probably point at Fernando Tatis Jr’s deal as a comp which ain’t happening in Cincy.
At some point they have to put up or shut up. For 35 years, they have chosen to shut up.
#SelltheteamBob
Usually extending young players is something most cost-conscious teams do. So you would think locking up someone they see as a core leader or something would be in the works.
Due to his injury, Drury is unlikely to be in a rush, but I would love to see the Tigers take a gamble for their Third base hole.
Someone pointed out that he always kills it in ST but it doesn’t always continue once the season starts.
Jays were smart to lock up Kirk, quality catchers are very rare these days.
Max muncy of the athletics needs to face former athletic Max muncy again
sad: With unfortunate advent of inter league play, I’m sure he will.
What happened to the Sunday chat?
Why did t White Sox place Drury on disabled list?
If teams shifted to a continuous-time stochastic model—factoring in injury likelihood, opt-out probabilities, and extension impacts as interconnected variables—they’d see that the current approach maximizes chaos, not wins. A team like the Giants, juggling Encarnacion’s absence and a thin DH pool, could have preempted this by retaining a veteran if they’d quantified his utility across multiple scenarios. No one’s discussing this because baseball analytics still fetishizes individual WAR over systemic resilience—yet the data in this article screams that the real edge lies in mastering the variance, not the mean.
Wow I think I’ll mute u
@Charliehustle2
Why? I don’t think I was trolling or being negative in any manner.
I think you exceeded his two-sentence attention span limit
You were too stochastic…
Ha, too stochastic? Fair call—I can get a little wild with the nerd stuff.
Take it a step further and teams should consider how their team history contributes to those outcomes. Some clubs have weak training staffs and their approach contributes to injury and extends the games missed. The White Sox in particular have a bad approach. Fans and teams tout bad luck but the bad luck can be explained in the data.
Old York, Great posting. You did a great job extracting thoughts that float in my head about individual WAR Vs. the total systematic approach to WAR relating directly to a MLB Team. I interpreted what you wrote to be a fresh look at each individual player’s overall contribution to a ball club in its summation value rather than his individual value. I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment. You have to be objective in how you determine a player’s value. Team Management decisions can influence the final WAR numbers by playing a certain player at one position forcing another player to another position either in the batting order or defensively that changes the numeric divisor that results in a higher or lower calculation of WAR. The increased usage of sinkerball pitchers that induce increases groundballs while increasing the pitcher’s innings resulting in reduced injuries on your club can heavily influence overall WAR and individual WAR. Jose Iglesias’ OMG created an unmeasurable intrinsic value to WAR through Human value to team-building that is impossible to have a numeric factor applied to it. Basing some decisions on the eye test of management can also influence a players overall worth that can’t be quantified in a true value.
“Meanwhile” has to start the sentence, not come in the middle between commas.