Latest On Yu Darvish

Yu Darvish’s 2025 debut may be getting closer, as the veteran right-hander threw 48 pitches over three innings of a simulated-game situation on Thursday at the Padres’ Spring Training facility.  Darvish has spent the entire season on the injured list after developing elbow inflammation during spring camp in mid-March, but despite the long layoff, Padres manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and other reporters that he doesn’t believe Darvish will need much rehab time before making his return to the San Diego roster.

While no specific timeline has been established, Shildt said the team might have Darvish undergo the final stages of rebuilding his arm strength while pitching Major League innings, rather than embarking on a lengthy minor league rehab assignment.  Assuming all is well with Darvish physically, Shildt said the club trusts that Darvish’s veteran know-how would allow him to properly ramp up on the fly while pitching in games.  The Padres would manage Darvish’s workload via inning limits and pitch counts, but even a somewhat limited version of Darvish would still be very helpful for an upcoming busy stretch of the schedule.  As Cassavell notes, the Padres have a stretch of 26 games in 27 days beginning on May 30.

Before such plans can be put into place, of course, Darvish will have to continue taking positive steps in his pitching progression.  Some level of minor league game activity seems likely, as Shildt said that Darvish will have to build up to an 80-pitch limit.  The 38-year-old Darvish has already been thrown multiple bullpen sessions, and Thursday marked the first time since the spring that he faced live batters.

This is the third straight season that Darvish has dealt with some type of elbow problem.  The most serious of the injuries was an olecranon stress reaction that ended his 2023 season in August, and the righty has battled inflammation in each of the last two years.  Darvish also had IL stints in 2024 due to a neck strain and two groin strains, and he also missed more time due to an undisclosed family issue.

Given how Darvish pitched only 95 1/3 innings in 2024 between the regular season and the playoffs, it is perhaps a little surprising that (for now) the Padres aren’t planning for a longer rehab stint in the wake of his latest injury.  Still, Darvish did get most of his Spring Training work in before his elbow inflammation arose, and obviously the Padres aren’t going to take any undue risk with Darvish’s health.

It is perhaps telling that San Diego has kept Darvish just on the 15-day injured list since Opening Day, as a placement on the 60-day IL would mean Darvish can’t be activated until the last week of May.  Since that might end up being Darvish’s timeline anyway, the Friars might well shift Darvish to the 60-day purely for procedural reasons if the team is in need of an extra 40-man roster spot.  But, Darvish’s continued stay on the 15-day IL gives the Padres some flexibility in bringing him back even earlier than that 26 games-in-27 day stretch.

The 24-13 Padres have gotten by just fine without Darvish to date, but needless to say, the rotation will look a lot stronger with the five-time All-Star back in the ranks.  Michael King and Nick Pivetta have both been excellent, but Dylan Cease has been uncharacteristically shaky (despite some strong peripherals), and Randy Vasquez’s shaky peripherals undermine his solid 3.76 ERA.  Multiple off-days in the last two weeks have allowed the Padres to get by without a proper fifth starter for a while, but Stephen Kolek is now lined up to take that role, and he is today’s scheduled starter against the Rockies.

Darvish had a 3.31 ERA over his 81 2/3 frames of regular-season work in 2024, with a 6.6% walk rate that was solidly above average, even if his 23.6% strikeout rate was only slightly above the league-wide midpoint and he allowed much more hard contact than usual. A sharp dropoff can arise suddenly for any pitcher as he ages, and Darvish has already been testing Father Time just by making it into his age-38 season.  This said, the Padres only need Darvish to be a solid mid-rotation arm rather than an ace, and it seems quite possible that he can reach or better that status if he can avoid the injury bug.