Nationals Notes: Susana, Cavalli, Law

Top pitching prospect Jarlin Susana has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 UCL sprain, and will be shut down from throwing for the next two weeks.  Nationals manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman) that the team will then evaluate Susana’s next steps at that time, but for now, Martinez described the injury as a “best-case scenario” given the initial concerns over Susana’s elbow.

The right-hander is far from out of the woods yet, as he’ll still be facing a significant absence even if he avoids surgery and doesn’t have any further arm discomfort.  As Zuckerman notes, if Susana’s recovery doesn’t take and ends up needing a surgery anyway, this early hopeful diagnosis could end up costing Susana some time and only delay his time on the sidelines.

Acquired as part of the blockbuster Juan Soto trade with the Padres in 2022, Susana was a consensus pick on preseason top-100 lists, topping out at 19th overall on Fangraphs’ ranking of the game’s best prospects.  Other evaluators like ESPN (53th), Baseball America (67th), and MLB Pipeline (79th) were a little less bullish, but the bottom line is that the fourth-year pro has plenty of potential.

Advancing to the Double-A level for the first time this season, Susana has a 4.15 ERA and a 31.1% strikeout rate in 26 innings in Harrisburg, though his walk rate has swelled to 16.4%.  Control problems have long been the biggest issue facing Susana, who is one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the minors.  His plus-plus fastball sits at or above the 100mph threshold, and Susana also has an excellent slider as a secondary offering.  While Susana has a promising future as a starter, he might also project as a future closer given the one-two punch of his fastball/slider combo.

Speaking of injured Nationals pitchers, Cade Cavalli was officially activated off the 15-day injured list today and optioned to Triple-A.  Cavalli underwent a Tommy John surgery in March 2023 and ran into a setback in the form of dead arm syndrome during his rehab process last year.  Cavalli pitched 8 1/3 minor league innings over three appearances in the minors in 2024, and he has a 5.27 ERA over 13 2/3 innings (across three different minor league levels) this season during another rehab assignment.

Washington put Cavalli on the big league IL to begin the season, so as Zuckerman observes, officially ending that IL stint is at least a good sign that Cavalli’s health problems at behind him.  He can now continue to pitch in the minors outside of the limits of a rehab assignment, though it will still be a while before Cavalli builds up enough arm strength to make a return to the Nationals’ rotation a possibility.

Cavalli was the 22nd overall pick of the 2020 draft, and was also top-100 prospect before the TJ surgery interrupted his career.  The right-hander did get a cup of coffee in the majors, as Cavalli’s MLB resume consists of a single start (4 1/3 innings) in August 2022.

Derek Law also started the season on the 15-day IL due to forearm inflammation, and Zuckerman reports that Law is set to throw off a mound this week for the first time since Spring Training.  A right flexor strain put Law on the IL late in the 2024 season, and some continued discomfort from that injury lingered throughout the offseason, and kept Law from pitching throughout almost all of the Nationals’ spring camp.  Initially considered to be a relatively precautionary IL placement, Law’s forearm problem has now cost him a quarter of the season, and it seems like he’ll miss at least the rest of May since he’ll plenty of time to ramp up.