The 2022 Nationals found themselves at a crossroads. Washington had sold at the prior year's trade deadline, shipping Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, sending Kyle Schwarber to the Red Sox, dealing Daniel Hudson to the Padres and trading Jon Lester to the Cardinals. The organization's steadfast hope had been that even while rebuilding, Juan Soto would be at the heart of those efforts to build back up. Longtime general manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged as much in June, plainly stating on the record that he had no intention of trading Soto.
The Nats offered Soto an extension reportedly worth $440MM in guaranteed money. It would've been the largest deal in MLB history at the time. Only after Soto turned that offer down -- drawing plenty of criticism for doing so -- did Washington begin to seriously explore the possibility of trading him. Moving the game's best young hitter when he had two and a half seasons of club control remaining was no small undertaking. It'd require a seismic haul of young talent -- the type of prospect package that several interested parties simply didn't have the inventory to assemble. Most other clubs simply couldn't stomach the asking price.
A limited market of suitors for Soto emerged. To no one's surprise, the hyper-aggressive Padres entered the bidding and made a strong push. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller throws his hat in the ring when nearly any star-caliber player is available. From the moment Soto hit the market, the Padres -- then armed with one of baseball's best farm systems -- were among the most logical landing spots.
San Diego indeed wound up reeling in their big fish, and it took the type of trade haul we might not see again for years to come. Soto and Josh Bell went from the Nats to the Padres in exchange for shortstop CJ Abrams, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, outfielder James Wood, outfielder Robert Hassell III and right-hander Jarlin Susana. The Padres also sent first baseman Luke Voit to the Nats as something of a financial counterweight, and in a separate deal they shipped Eric Hosmer -- who'd invoked his no-trade rights to block his inclusion in the Soto trade -- to the Red Sox.
It was a jaw-dropping haul. Abrams, Gore and Hassell had all been top-10 draft picks within the past five seasons. Abrams was a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport at the time. Gore had struggled through some mechanical issues in the upper minors but was only a few years removed from being one of the consensus top pitching prospects in the game. Wood was a 19-year-old who was just a year removed from being a second-round pick, and his stock was firmly on the rise at the time of the swap as he ripped through A-ball. Hassell entered the 2022 season as a top-40 prospect in the game. Susana was only 18 at the time of the trade and was in his first season of pro ball after signing out of his native Dominican Republic; Baseball America likened his upside to that of a high schooler who might go in the first round of the MLB draft.
While not every blockbuster trade pans out -- Washington hasn't gotten a ton of value from that Scherzer/Turner stunner, for instance -- the Soto trade has produced a bumper crop that seems likely to form the nucleus of the next contending Nationals club.
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The Nationals are not far off .500 and should be in position to add a free agent or two by next year.
They should have added them this year.
Tyler O’Neill or teoscar Hernandez or Anthony Santander would’ve fit
The nats will be too cheap for Kyle Tucker this year
They have little pitching.
If they would’ve added a couple of starting pitchers, they’d be in position to compete for a wc this season. Guessing they’ll be linked to King/Cease in the offseason to pair with Gore.
I would’ve went through life never remembering Schwarber played for the Nationals if it weren’t for this article
Or the Red Sox
The 2021 Red Sox was a fun team they had that “it” factor that could go to the World Series
Everyone forgot schwarber’s June for the nationals he was hitting like prime diamondbacks JD Martinez
The Schwarber grand slam in Game 3 of the 2021 ALCS was one of the most electric Sox moments of the century
@jdgoat It’ll be very interesting to see if the Phillies look to continue contending while getting younger, or instead reup Schwarber and Realmuto and simply collapse for five years starting in 2028.
I do remember, because he hit 16 hr in 18 games and a total of 25 hr in something like 70 games for the Nats. He was destroying the ball when he left.
I honestly don’t think there’s been a single loser in any Juan Soto trade. The Nats got Wood, Abrams, Gore, and Susana (who is one of the better pitching prospects in baseball right now) for Soto. The Padres got Michael King, Kyle Higashoika, Randy Vasquez, and Drew Thorpe (who was flipped for Dylan Ceaes) when they traded him to the Yankees. The Yankees got a season out of Soto that would have won AL MVP in most years, and Soto hit .327 with four home runs and more walks (14) than strikeouts (9) in the Postseason, helping them win their first AL Pennant since 2009. Each team has gotten something pretty dang valuable out of Soto.
And the Mets just got him for money. They win.
Let’s see how that contract ages before we say they win.
Not at all. The stadium is full now. The excitement is high in Citi. The players hitting behind him and in front of him are having MVP years because he’s in the lineup. The Lindor trade and signing changed the franchise and he cemented it into place.
Something indicates the above Metshomer will not recall the warnings about the last half of Soto’s contract. Instead, he’ll be too busy booing from the stands. History tends to repeat itself.
It doesn’t even matter what happens in the back half of his contract. We have faith in our owner now that he will do what he needs to do to put a winner on the field. That alone will keep the fans coming.
When the Mets win something, I will tell you you’re right. Until then, let’s see what happens
When you become a teenager you will start to understand real life!
I’m 50 and I agree that the money doesn’t matter. Cohen is a multi-billionaire, if Soto’s contract goes bad in 7-10 years, Cohen will just spend what it takes to get rid of him. Zero prospects were lost with that contract. Great deal.
But if no one wants him, where’s he going to go? Money is only useful if the product is good enough.
I think Soto will be good for most of that contract, but groundbreaking? Not at all, and just because Soto is good doesn’t mean everything else will be
It’s a good deal for the Mets in the short run. This long term deal will age very poorly. Soto is not 26, he is 29. This deal takes him to age 44!! Soto is an excellent hitter ( not great) a poor outfielder, and a so so base runner. He will be a dh, in 3 or 4 years.
Come on. He’s not 29. He won’t be a a DH in 3 to 4 years. Lets stay in reality.
Mets Era Thumping Soto——-he’s a DH now!
Just because he’s playing in the field doesn’t mean he should be.
That’s ridiculous. He’s a decent fielder with a good arm.
Saying he’s not a great hitter is so far underselling him so far it’s not even funny. There are only 22 batters to ever draw 700+ walks, have 200+ home runs, and a career 150 OPS+. All of them are either in the HOF, are still active and will be in the HOF in the future, or were involved in scandal, and would be in the HOF otherwise. Only Soto reached those milestones before he turned 26.
Only 25 players since integration collected at least 1500 total bases before their age-26 season, with Soto being one of them with 1746. Only 4 players have ever hit better than Soto per OPS+ through their age-25 season since integration: Mickey Mantle, Mike Truot, Albert Pujols, and Dick Allen. Mantle is an inner-circle HOF’er, so will Trout and Pujols when they get elected in. Allen was just recently elected, and probably should have been years ago.
I don’t get why so many people undersell Soto’s abilities at the plate. He’s one of the best hitters of this generation. Is his defense below average? Yeah, but his pitch recognition is unlike anything we’ve seen in years. That isn’t something that’s going to go away either. That’s something that could help him age very well, even into his late-30s/early-40s.
He’s 26 not 29 years old.
I disagree. Yankees lost big time. He was a rental and say what you want, a pennant doesn’t equal a championship.
The Nats were the only winners in this saga.
Nats were smart to trade him when he didn’t take the extension.
Padres are still relevant but we’re at least a big bat away from winning in the playoffs last year. Soto could’ve helped them.
I also think Mets are going to regress this season as it wears on. Soto is a huge boost but I dont see their starting pitching lasting all year.
Padres got a decent amount back but they gave up 3 (could be 4 or 5 with hassell and Susana) core players and they only got back 2 strong players
Yankees are the big loser if AL pennants aren’t celebrated but Mets will become a loser once Soto turns 32 (never forget people like yoenis cespedes)
I don’t think Soto is anything like Cespedes. Soto’s worst single-season OPS+ is 142. Cespedes’ best single-season OPS+ was 139. Cespedes never had the sort of plate discipline Soto has. Soto’s pitch recognition probably isn’t gonna have some sort of dramatic falloff. Even if he has to move to DH or first base as he gets older and his already below average defense gets worse, he’s probably going to at least always put up a decent OBP, regardless of age. Also, Cespedes was already 26 when he made his MLB debut. Soto has nearly 1000 career MLB games in his age-26 season.
Sad – end game analysis fails to consider the benefit of the playing time, the sold out stadiums night after night, playoff runs, etc.
SD also “got” that.
@sad tormented
You have to cheat a little bit by including Dylan Cease in the equation, so that means including Drew Thorpe (part of the Soto to Yankees trade) and the other pieces used to get him (not part of the Soto trade).
But, the Pads are still guaranteed draft picks for Cease and King, whichever one(s) they are unable to extend. Another core player or two could still be theirs.
This x1000.
This is the trade that should have cost preller his job.
Nah, he’s great at acquiring talent. Yes, he gave up a haul for Soto, but he’s an expert at acquiring talent (which is why he was able to give up a haul in the first place).
He also turned Soto into Michael King (returned in trade of Soto with Yanks) and Dylan Cease (traded piece received from Yankees to White Sox for Cease).
He’s a more aggressive dipoto. I like what he does but he sold his soul here, has come up short since. Major chaos with ownership (not his fault,) but I have to think that’s his leesh. It’s put up or shut up time for preller. He’s gotta make his presence felt instead of heard.
And as long as he’s looking up at the dodgers. He look down on Colorado all he wants and sleep easy enough.
I’d much rather stay pay than see that 4 headed monster justify Michael king for me here.
He did that at the behest of Seidler who was dying and wanted a chip if possible.
Yea he did but if he were still Soto is more than likely a paste w 2/4 these guys easily
Gore > King and they still get Dylan Cease without Thorpe.
I love gore he’s an offense away from 18 wins himself. He’s looked really really good this year but most expected the progression on that
IDK about that. Gore’s a flamethrower, but King has some serious finesse.
Gore worth more WAR and has 2 more years of control than King which would have been 3 if Preller had been smart and manipulated his service time back in 2022.
Folks talk about Gore like he’s a rookie with major upside. He’s started 80 games in MLB and has a 4.11 ERA with an atrocious 1.40 WHIP (even with his good start to 2025). He’s averaged 1.0 WAR in four seasons.
Hardly a proven elite pitcher just yet. More like another Brandon Pfaat, #4 SP on many teams. I like the 26 year old, but let’s see how his career plays out and he actually fulfills his potential – hasn’t yet.
@Brew’88…
1. Pitching development is not linear.
2. If you honestly and truly don’t believe in MacKenzie Gore they could have traded him on his own for more value than they got for Soto.
@Brew’88 No. You don’t “Like the 26 year old.” The both of us know that that is a lie. You have nothing but hatred for him.
I don’t like fWAR or bWAR for pitchers for different reasons, but if I had to pick, bWAR is usually better at telling what happened. In his entire Washington tenure, Gore hasn’t been as valuable as King for the Padres the past 1+ seasons. Gore’s off to a great start this year and will have two more years to accumulate value. Would I have wanted Gore starting over King last year in the postseason?
You’re right about the service time manipulation, but I like how the Padres handle their promotions. Refreshing to see people not screw the players so openly. I’d say that for any other org doing the same thing.
whoa @PadresWSC, wasn’t expecting vitriol. But the numbers are what they are and that seems to bother his fan club. I hated the trade for Soto and still do. Gore and Abrams are very solid, but not likely to become stars at this point. Wood is another story, skies the limit there.
The successful 2nd Soto trade (to Yanks) partially made up for the 1st trade for him though, but not enough.
And just a stylistic comment, Jarren, if you plan to use bullets, make sure you have more than 2?
@straightuphonestguy Offer the Nats Michael King for MacKenzie Gore straight up right now I guarantee Rizzo tells Preller to pound sand!
@Brew’88 Not vitriol. You just clearly don’t like MacKenzie Gore.
Anyway, the combination of Abrams and Gore put up the same WAR as Soto in 2023. And that’s without even getting to James Wood who you think is the best player the Nats got in that trade.
@Padres WSC. I don’t think Gore is an elite pitcher and his stats prove my point and wish some wouldn’t keep insisting it before it actually happens. That’s all. I want him to become an elite SP. To say I clearly don’t like him is baseless and wildly nonsensical. I met him many times and like him.
That’s because FOs value (some might say overvalue) cheap, cost-controlled ML talent more than high-end talent because it’s cheaper and therefore more valuable leaguewide. In Gore’s case, I truly do not care about what he did in 2022-2024, because the Padres (almost any organization worth its salt) can find backend production (~370 IP of low-4 SIERA) on the FA market for a marginally higher cost than league minimum. From now on, it changes because he’s posting CY numbers (currently!) and has only been slightly more valuable this year than King. They both will probably end up with great #2 pitcher numbers (~4 fWAR) this year. If Gore keeps that up for the next two years or improves on it, he’s worth more than King. But again, I would not have wanted Gore starting over King in the playoffs last year.
Losing Gore, I could live with, and in fact, I’d rather lose Wood (my favorite Padres prospect ever!) than not acquire Bogaerts. But that’s how the cookie crumbled with the Soto trade. Fernando got dinged for PEDs, which caught the organization off-guard, and instead of wooing Judge in FA, they got Bogaerts… the big FA splash move which may have only been because Seidler was gearing up for one last run.
@straight. Gore after 8 starts this year has a 3.33 ERA, not CY numbers? He had a similar if not better hot start last year by the way then went mediocre ROS.
He’s got a 2.38 SIERA, dude is balling out. Whether the Nats defense can hold up their end of the bargain remains to be seen, but he is pitching exceptionally well.
Pitching well I agree with. But there are a bunch of guys with better SIERA and ERAs south of 2 right now. Gore is not a CY candidate at this point.
“Offer the Nats Michael King for MacKenzie Gore straight up right now…”
Yeah, let’s just completely forget about the element of time. Seidler wanted to win in 2022, while he was still alive, not hold on to prospects, who might, or not develop, in hopes of winning in 2025, long after his passing.
straightuphonestguy, The problem with your post, which is less egregious than others, is using current production in comparison to a trade made in the 2023-24 offseason. There’s a lot hindsight in many of these posts. I remember all the hype about Gore, and also remember his somewhat underwhelming rookie season that didn’t match the hype.
Had Seidler, knowing his time was limited, not wanted Preller to go all out to try to win a title, Preller may not have traded that much prospect capital. Who knows? But the point is no one knew at the time that the package traded for Soto, would be this good. It’s only in hindsight that fans are bemoaning the talent that was traded away.
@jean Matrac I’m not forgetting it at all I’m responding to the Preller fanboys who unironically say that they would rather have the players they got back for Soto than the ones they gave up.
@Jarren
It should not be a point against Preller that he does not play games with service time.
He doesn’t more than most. If they are ready and not traded yea they are up for sure.
Brew – true SD fans all agree with you and as I’ve said before, Gore was adorned with the “next Clayton Kershaw” label out of high school and while he has finally developed into a reliable SP, it is a #3 / maybe #2.
I think that is something the casual fan fails to grasp. king has done more for SD in his 1 season + than Gore was projected to do for SD in that same time frame.
Not one of those guys traded to Wash was going to help SD in 22 playoff push nor the hoped 2023.
Yes, would hurt to have Abrams and Wood, but neither are top #5 CY pitchers plus not a bad backend guy like Vasquez.
No one ever seems to remember SD gets more hears of RV than Wash gets of Gore and right now they are both #3 ish pitchers.
Sure Gore has more upside but what does upside get you?
So many posters on here seem to treat MLB like fantasy league – how many games does SD win last year without Cease, Vasquez and King?
AND SD gets draft picks who might turn out to be the next Soto for all anyone knows but these guys don’t want to consider all elements of a trade. Wins, sellout stadiums, fans support, happy fans, improved chances at a ring while core guys in in prime, etc.
Preach on Brew!
Jarren – the obvious response is that if SD could have, they would have. Fans that talk like this have no clue what is really going on in non fantasy league baseball.
@LTC “how many games does SD win last year without Cease, Vasquez and King?”
More than they did in our timeline. And maybe the offense doesn’t tucker out in the NLDS if James Wood and CJ Abrams are still around.
“AND SD gets draft picks who might turn out to be the next Soto for all anyone knows”
In 10,000 simulations they win more games if they just keep Abrams, Gore and Wood.
“sellout stadiums, fans support, happy fans”
Only casual fans care about such things. You root for the name on the front of the jersey not the back every single time.
Jarren – and pray tell how the would have gotten Cease without Thorpe? Wood and Abrams?
Now you have Gore and cease and no, since the trade, I’d take King all day long and all nights too!
And I was a huge Gore fan as a SD fan back in the day. When he was drafted and the next year, Gore was rated similar to Skeens –
See any similarities to their career paths? Me neither.
@Longtimecoming Well that’s pretty easy…
They could use Dylan Lesko or Robby Snelling as the centerpiece in the Cease trade instead of Thorpe. Those guys actually fit the White Sox’s timeline better than Thorpe, who is now rotting on the 60-day IL with TJ while still accruing service time.
In any event, without the Soto trade, at the end of the 2023 season, Preller would be tasked with rebuilding the Padres’ rotation, just as he was in our timeline. Only difference is he would have MacKenzie Gore on hand to fill one spot and more capital available with which to fill the other spots.
Jarren – not sure how Gore has more WAR than King? King had almost as much last year alone than Gore has for his 80+ starts over his career.
Look at their stats this year. Gore has more WAR. Or at least he did before the today start. They left him in too long and he blew it in the 7th inning so maybe it will have gone down a bit.
Also, as PadresWSC pointed out, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore combined put up the same WAR as Juan Soto in 2023. And that’s before you account for them being cheaper and controlled longer.
King’s a goner in free agency after this season and Padre’s won’t pony up $$$.
They’ve got at least $50M coming off the books with every position sewn up long-term except for 1B, LF, and C. Even with raises and Manny’s contract increasing, they’re going to have money for King.
Straight – I completely agree and would argue that C isn’t a problem with Salas near term. Also, a guy in AA looking good at 1b. I think if King desires to stay in SD, his 25 salary, and Hosmer money and Suarez money is plenty.
SD BP can overcome loss of Suarez with the guys they have.
King, Musgrove, Pivetta, Darvish – not a bad 4 in 26. Vasquez, Kolek, Hart, Waldron, lizarraga, Cruz – some get signee – some of the better depth that SD has had in years.
I’ve been critical of Preller at times, but I admire his willingness to push the chips in to try to win a WS title. It’s perhaps at the direction of Seidler without the worry of job security, but most GMs/PBOs wouldn’t pull the trigger in fear of it backfiring and losing their job. Had they won it all in 2022, or 2023, no SD fan would be complaining about what Preller gave up.
He’s what we all want but he’s all in all the time and dangerous when your bleeding farm. Give props to his analytical here they keep churning prospects like butter. If he didn’t have that he’s dead in the water with a jammed gun.
I’m just saying sotos generational you could argue 3/4 return he moved have hit today and hassell is insane depth on that.
To me he swung and missed and no I don’t think Michael king saves face on rental and difference between 1-4 here.
Well your initial post stated that Preller should have been fired for the Soto acquisition. Seidler was on borrowed time, and wanted Preller to go all in to win a title. So there was no way he was going to be fired.
Yes, the return from the NYYs was less than what they gave up, but Soto came to SD with 2 years and 2 months team control. He was traded with only 1 year of control.
We just have different takes. You say he swung and missed. I say he did the most he could to bring his boss the title he so very much desired, but it just didn’t happen. But getting Soto gave them the best shot at it, and that’s all anyone can ask.
If you’re not going to retain you move off I agree. Kings not garbage and not a horrible fall back.
But no hindsight if nobody’s dead here Sotos a padre instead and you can second guess if Aj moves off any of the 4. The fact that he did naw this looks worse and worse by the day man
If they couldn’t draft/develop talent, they wouldn’t be able to trade for Soto anyway. And Hassell is org depth at this point, not the type you miss in a trade.
Who besides you says Soto’s still a Padre if Seidler’s not dead? Or that he couldn’t have signed Soto without trading him first if he weren’t dead?
Hassell isn’t the reason Padres fans (the smart ones at least) have a beef with the trade.
“Yes, the return from the NYYs was less than what they gave up, but…”
But nothing. That is the point the Preller fanboys keep denying and the point those of us who know what we are talking about keep driving home.
I wasn’t claiming Hassell was the missing piece, I was responding to the bit about Hassell being “insane depth”.
Here’s what gets me; they went for it (the 1st Soto trade), and that’s fine, Seidler was about that……but not really it turns out. Going for it means you keep Soto for the 2.5 years of control, not give up on going for it after 1.5 years. They were fortunate to get what they got in return from the Yanks in the 2nd trade, but it was only a band aid for the 1st trade.
Death of the owner; I’m not going to say you can’t plan for that, but also if the dude is trying his damndest to see a WS before he goes… I mean, he’s in the driver’s seat, right?
The dead man himself would never have traded Soto. That was a preller call 100%
Not at all I think jarlin sill be the best on that and they stole him
Knowing he’s 4th piece back on that you’ll take it for sure
True. You had to pivot at that point, though, IMO. Too many holes on the roster to just keep Soto for another run.
Seidler screwed the Padres over but Padres fans seethe when I say that.
“But nothing.”
So all things are equal? The ‘but’ in my post is germane in that Soto was worth less when traded by SD than when traded by DC. So it doesn’t take a baseball genius to understand why the return was less. This fundamental stuff. I mean, really?
” Going for it means you keep Soto for the 2.5 years of control…”
They went for it while Seidler was still alive. That was the direction given to Preller by ownership. That direction changed when Seidler passed away, and new ownership took over. The new owners were worried about the team’s financial obligations. They weren’t going to re-sign Soto, nor spend big in free-agency for 24024, so Preller maximized Soto’s value, getting what he could, looking to the future, rather than see him walk with only a comp pick in return.
*2024
“(Seidler) himself would never have traded Soto.”
Sure, but besides being a total guess on your part as to what Seidler would have done, you’re removing a major part of the equation since Seidler did die. If Seidler doesn’t have cancer, maybe the trade for Soto never happens.
Soto was traded after Seidler’s death. Preller went all out at Seidler’s direction which is why he acquired Soto in the first place. Had Seidler not died, Soto doesn’t get traded.
But just as Seidler had Preller go for it to try to win a title, new ownership wanted him to cut costs. Getting what he could for Soto was the only thing he could do, given the direction from his new boss. None of what happened was Preller’s call. It was all ownership from Peter Seidler to those that took over after his death
I know Soto was worth less when he was traded the second time. That is my entire point.
@Brew88
They didn’t have the money to pay Soto and patch the rest of the holes on the team. The Bally Sports deal going kaput affected things, no matter that some fans inexplicably insist otherwise.
If we want to say they should not have signed Xander, so they could have paid Soto, I am always all ears for that.
“Trade Soto and get better” somehow worked, as we all know.
@Jean M. Oh I thought you meant 24024 thanks for clarifying! hehehe. I do understand why they traded Soto to the Yanks when they did but can’t understand why AJP (or Seidler) would do the 1st Soto trade and be naive to this as a possible outcome. If they were naive (maybe Seidler didn’t believe he would die so soon) okay, we’ll chock it up to a monumental oops. But if they knew they might have to jettison Soto after 1.5 years instead of 2.5, then the logic behind doing the trade in the first place gets pretzeled. Either way, not a good look.
Brew – I’m going to live and die with that first z Soto (and Bell who was literally on of the hottest hitters at that time) was the maximum “go for it” and well, if Bell had performed after the trade and maybe 1 SP stayed healthy, it might have been the year.
Trades are made with the goal of improving the shot and should not always be graded on whether or not the players performed as expected.
If you know that Soto was worth less in the second trade, why are you complaining that SD gave up more to acquire him, than they got in return from the NYYs?
Brew, I hate making dumb mistakes like 24024. I just had to correct it, despite it being obvious what I meant. Glad that it tickled you though.
The initial trade for Soto was because Seidler, knowing he didn’t have much time, wanted Preller to operate in win-now mode. Seidler is thinking, if they win a WS title before I die, who cares about the future?
Soto was far and away the best guy available and he did help them almost get to the WS in 2022. They beat the Mets, who’d won 101 games, in the NLWC, and then beat the Dodgers, who’d won 111 games, in the NLDS. They had a legitimate shot at it.
This is all evidenced by the fact that Soto was traded 23 days after Seidler died. Preller had been directed by Seidler to operate in a go all out way to win a WS title. After Seidler’s death, he was then directed to change course and operate in a more financially conservative way. It’s all circumstance, not some overriding poorly executed master plan.
@Jean Matrac Same as what I said before. Because some Padres fans genuinely believe that trading Abrams, Gore, Wood, RH3, Susana, Zavala, Wilson and Iriarte for Cease, King and Vasquez was a net gain.
Rally Goose, I’m sure nobody thinks the Soto transactions resulted in a net gain. That’s just silly to think that. But SD had to pay a price for having Soto’s production for 1-1/3 seasons. Value changes over time, and direct comparisons made years apart are useless.
Hassell has been injured.
He in now healthy and rebuilding his value.
@Rally Goose
You forgot Higashioka and Brito.
Brito still counts even if you are only including guys who are still with the Padres.
And the 2 draft picks if they lose Cease and King.
Maybe they are the next Mike Trout and Paul Skenes!
@Jean Matrac Lots of Preller fanboys think the Soto transactions resulted in a net gain.
@ISD Sure, include Brito. They’re still better off with no Soto trades.
Or the next Matt Bush and Jake Gautreau!
HEHEHATE—- if the Padres keep winning it doesn’t matter.
A GM doesn’t lose his job over one trade….ANY trade,if the team continues to be successful.
Petco is sold out nearly every single night.
The team is double digit wins over .500
This team…this excitement….is what Padre fans have been dreaming of for decades.
Fired……lol
If the goal is to beat the dodgers yea preller failed. He tried but it cost him everything. If second place is worth it in the nl west for his tenure tip your hat off it’s a weak division behind them. That’s not worth gore,Abrams, jarlin or hassell for good measure. Michael king and second place isn’t worth praising this man for. It is embarrassing stuff in a game we’re prospects are power. Not pawns anymore.
Financially this a mess and it’s not getting better that way anytime soon.
I’m very critical on Prellar as we all should be after this
HEHEHATE;
I was very critical of Preller for years here. Primarily because he micro-managed the entire organization.
Finally ownership had him bring in a veteran manager in Bob Melvin. The Padres got better. But while Melvin has always been a manager that was respected and could make some sort of order out of chaos, he’s almost always been a buck short. The biggest move of Mr. Preller’s career was to jump on Mike Schildt immediately after the Cardinals were dumb enough to dump one of the best managers in MLB – as one broadcaster put it: “All he does is win”. Shildt was hired in as a coach, but anyone that follows MLB for a while knew that it was only a matter of time before he was made manager. That’s what turned the Padres fortunes – they may well be the best team in MLB other than the Dodgers.
Like all MLBTR articles, this article looks at one aspect of a ML team comparing individual player statistics, and draws conclusions as to how some player moves came out. That’s nice. Rotisserie League “owners” do that all the time. However, MLB is not rotisserie league, and in MLB the only statistic that matters is team W’s vs. L’s……..and the FO, manager, and coaching staff has a lot to do with that……almost always more than one or two players.
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The other day MLBTR posted an article noting that the Royals had poor hitting statistics from their OF and need to do something about it. THEY HAVE WON 16 OUT OF THEIR LAST 18 GAMES. Their OF is a problem? Their OF is doing what management wants them to do to help the team win.
Statistics mean nothing unless the persons citing them understands the total picture. Any 14 year-old looking at data over anything can cherry-pick stats and make an argument. So?
Why? The full year they had Soto the team went 82-80 missed the playoffs
Traded him for an ace in King and very good 3/4 in Vasquez and they won the second most games in franchise history last year at 93, made the playoffs, and look like they’re on pace for 90+ again this year.
They really just need to figure out LF long term for the season and they’ll be golden long as everyone stays healthy.
Why not use James Wood in LF? Oh wait.
Probably because at the time of the trade young Mr. Woods was a minor league player.
Cause then that would create holes in the rotation removing King Vasquez and Cease that were all products of trading Soto to the Yankees……Oh wait…..you’d just trade one problem for an even bigger problem. It’s easier to find league average LF than it is multiple TOR arms.
@Easy as 1 2 3 Gore fills one rotation spot, Cease fills another (use Dylan Lesko or Robby Snelling as the headliner) and then spend the money they save by not signing Bogaerts on the third pitcher. Next question.
Why? Ownership was in on the plan too.
Whether anyone likes it or not, the Pads’ success since 2022 has quieted realistic talk about Preller being fired. I would argue such talk is unfair at this point.
The knock on Preller was always that he could stockpile minor league talent, but never put together a winning major league roster. That monkey is now off his back. Preller and Shildt should do their thing for as long as it keeps working.
And they still suck
Susana is a right hander but they obviously very well with this package. Everyone they got could looks good with the exception of Hassell who has been better this year.
If he becomes a platoon bat that’s just icing on the cake
Butchered the grammar there but the deal looks good for WAS!
Must’ve had Jarlin Garcia on the brain when I typed “left-hander,” haha. Thanks!
Imagine how good the Padres would be with what they gave up. They would be the clear cut favorites to win it all.
I do agree with this. People are praising the Padres but they did exactly what the Mets did. Build a winner only to lose and then break it down again. That, to me, shows misdirection.
The Padres would still be facing the unlimited $$$$ Dodgers. They ain’t doing too badly right now, i.e. #2 or #3 overall in the MLB, after losing five of their position starters a month ago, and their top two starters (Musgrove and Darvish), one for the season, and the other … well, we’ll see.
You are engaged in something called “static analysis”. Life is dynamic. Meaning that for each trade, and each player involved in that trade, there is no way of predicting their course or development today, back a year or two ago. Any change in that scenario, results in thousands of possibilities. Preller holding onto all of this prospects would have, on paper, made them the top MLB team, but life isn’t scripted. For example, what would have happened to the value of those trades if Peter Seidler hadn’t passed away when he did?
The single truth that could have been predicted two years ago, with near full-proof reliability, would that the Padres would be facing a Dodger’s organization that is so well heeled, that they could probably pay the salaries of every player on their 40 man roster just from hot dog sales alone. (Yeah, that’s a joke, because no matter how many $Billions I cite from known sources that the Dodgers bring in every year, someone here will tell me that I’m full of it, that the Dodgers have the same $300M or $400M in revenue as every other team.) The Dodgers organization doesn’t necessarily spend every nickel they earn on the current organization, but they have enough annual revenue and reserves to buy any and every player in the MLB that they target, pay what ever the luxury tax amounts to, and still be able to buy a whole ‘nother team.
The Padres challenge is to beat the Dodgers. Wild card playoffs are the backup goal, but any team which has the means to OWN their division like the Dodgers can, has already made the payoffs on day one of the season. Note that I also take nothing away from the Dodgers. They are a first class organization from top to bottom, and probably would have the same development and drafting capability if they were fighting for dollars like most of the other 30 MLB teams (not named Yankees or Mets). They are just a real, good franchise. However, whatever Preller does to become competitive against the Dodgers, or contend for a wild card opportunity, is 10X the effort and achievement of any other GM, given the small market that serves the Padres.
Giving up good stuff to get a better team, is just a part of his portfolio, another tool in his toolbox. And, he’s not going to win on all of those moves, either.
I don’t think they can’t beat the Dodgers now. They might be better. All of the players we are talking about would have developed with the Padres and probably quicker. The Padres would probably would have not wasted money on Boegarts and had that money to spend on needs. So replace Gore for King, and Abrams for Bogaerts. You add in Woods in a position of need and have Boegarts money to add another starting pitcher. That team would be the best team in baseball no matter the Dodgers money. Imagine an Outfield of Merrill, Tatis and Woods for the next ten years?
But would anyone still be watching a team that was losing and out of contention for the past 3-4 years, if Preller sat pat and did nothing but wait for the youth movement? The team might be under new ownership.
Who is Woods?
James Wood. Great young OF for the Nats.
@JoeBrady We are talking about Woods. Not Wood. I obviously know who James Irvin Wood is.
The Dodgers definitely don’t have the same revenue as the other “major market” teams. The Dodgers and Yankees both eclipsed $728M in revenue, with the Dodgers in first at $752M. The third team, CHC came in at $584M, $168M less than LAD. That’s a significant advantage and most mid-tier clubs came in somewhere in the $320-$350M range, <$400M than LAD. That's a significant revenue advantage before factoring in the payroll/$$ spent vs. revenue made.
I get we love strikeouts and the promise of ‘stuff,’ but Jarlin hasn’t actually had a good year since 2022 when most of that was in Rookie ball, needed above average luck to keep the ball in the yard in 2024, and so far this season doesn’t know where the ball’s going (20 BB in 26 IP).
On the plus side he’s young for his level, but there are a lot of negatives.
Jarlin was the fifth piece in the trade.
I don’t think he will succeed as a starter, but he’ll be a nice back-end pen piece if nothing else. Great throw-in from the Nats perspective.
AnY gM wOuLd HaVe MaDe ThE sOtO tRaDe !
SoTo WoUlD hAvE sIgNeD aN eXtEnSiOn If SeIdLeR hAdN’t DiEd !
BuT iF wE dOn’T tRaDe FoR sOtO wE dOn’T gEt MiChAeL kInG, dYlAn CeAsE aNd RaNdY vAsQuEz !
DuMpInG tReNt GrIsHaM wAs WoRtH iT !
*vomit*
Were you lamenting Grisham when he put up a 90 wRC+ in 200 PAs last season tho?
No. And they didn’t have to attach him to Soto or anyone else to get rid of him. They could have non-tendered him. It’s quick, it’s clean and everyone gets what they want (well… except Trent Grisham. But then I missed the part where that’s A. J. Preller’s problem).
I’m not sure what you mean. They did have to attach him for the return they got, unless he was just there to free up additional salary (why wouldn’t the Yankees have non-tendered him then?). Whether or not that’s an overpay because he’s having a career year is a different issue. I always liked Grisham and thought people graded him too hard. I loved the glove, and any offense was extra.
Some Padres fans defend the two Soto trades on the grounds that it “allowed Preller to dump Trent Grisham.” They either don’t realize or just ignore the fact that Preller was already “allowed” to dump Grisham. Non-tender was an option.
That’s fair. I thought it was pretty clear the Yankees valued him and wanted him as part of their return. It would be great to have him in LF this year.
As a Brewers fan, you can have Grisham
Never trade for Soto at all.
Plug Gore into the rotation.
Plug Wood into the outfield.
Plug Abrams in at shortstop.
Abrams eliminates the need for Bogaerts. Use that money on starting pitching instead.
Alternatively, if we REALLY don’t believe in C. J. Abrams, trade him for starting pitching.
Trade RH3 and Susana for starting pitching as well.
#weride
In this scenario we also wouldn’t have been in the playoffs over the last several years.
Yes you would have. You were well on our way in 2022, you missed in 2023 even in OTL and you were set up better for 2024 and 2025 than you were in OTL if you do it this way.
Right idea wrong positions.
Wood first or DH
Extend Kim instead of Bogaerts
LF Merrill
CF Abrams
Susana and RH3 bring back at best a 3
Gore is a 3
Still need two TOR arms and pen pieces
@Easy as 1 2 3 Kim should have been traded at the 2023 trade deadline.
I trust that Preller would have been able to figure it out. He was in our timeline with less capital on hand then he would have in the alternate timeline.
I like the trade retrospective; it will always be divisive. I think a lot of the sour taste on the first Soto deal is due to the disappointing 2023 deal. If the Padres had one more bite of the apple with Soto in the playoffs, I think it would’ve immensely taken the sting off the second trade. The second trade was a very good pivot — obviously, you don’t wanna trade Soto, and you don’t get back anything close to what you gave up to get him. Still, Higgy had a great year, King’s been a revelation (if they extend him, it will also help soften the blow, IMO), and Vasquez is interesting as #5 and potentially #4 arm.
Also, who plays SS if they never consummate the first Soto deal? Kim? Abrams? Merrill? Do they still trade Abrams to make room for Merrill and Wood? What do they even get for a young SS who would be league-averageish with the bat and terrible with the glove? Do they try to move him to CF and replace Grisham? Interesting scenarios to consider.
The point is they would be better positioned today if they never traded for Juan Soto.
The trade looks worse because of Tatis’ suspension, the aberrant 2023 team performance, and Seidler’s passing, all of which were unforeseen (maybe there was some idea with Seidler). I’m not gonna cry over spilt milk. The only part that hurts is Wood and signing Bogaerts.. like if they pull down someone else in FA, I don’t think I have an issue with the trade. I think, knowing Tatis was gonna be suspended, you take a mulligan on the trade knowing it’s not yet time to push.
Seidler’s passing wasn’t unforeseen at all he made that comment about how you “Can’t take your money with you.” Do the math.
Yeah “can’t take your money with you” wasn’t some ominous sign he was dying. It’s a saying. So is “can’t spend it if you’re dead”
“Hey Pete how come you’re blowing so much money on competitive tax balances?”
Pete: Well you can’t take it with you
In no way shape or form did that mean hint foreshadow Pete was subtly telling us he was gonna die soon after making that comment. He died at 63. Old people tend to realize they’re old and say things like that.
The first Soto trade took some serious balls, giving up almost all of your recent 1st round picks (except Merrill who ended up being the best one of all).
They entered 2023 as the World Series favorites per the gambling books. In the NL their offense ranked 4th in fWAR, their pitching finished 3rd, yet they had to win 16 of their last 18 games to finish above .500 and missed the playoffs.
It was the weirdest team with an offense that sucked with men on base, couldn’t win a extra inning game or come back from a deficit.
Seidler passed and Preller has to cut payroll, and in the end it was over 80m lower in 2024. It seemed like the Yankees were the only team seriously going after Soto and in Preller’s position he didn’t have a ton of leverage. The negotiations dragged out for a week with Cashman saying he wouldn’t give up both King AND Thorpe but Preller didn’t budge until he did. Thorpe was easily the top piece to land Cease.
When they made the Soto trade I didn’t expect him to show up with a limp bat in ’22, nor did I expect the 2023 offense to have so little fight. The trade didn’t work out as hoped, it happens.
Making that 2nd trade, revamping the roster including 2 starters that ranked top 7 in CY voting and winning 12 more games (Their 2nd most in their 55 year history) isn’t normally the kind of thing that puts a GM/PBO on the hot seat. And when they start the next year hot as well that is especially not happening.
I wish James Wood was in LF, but no regrets trading for a 23 year old superstar that appeared to be the missing piece to making an epic team. His performance in ’22 wasn’t there and 2023’s team sure didn’t mesh. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they were a much more close knit team once Soto was gone.
I’d take King over Gore. I’d take Merrill over Gore, Abrams and Susana. I’d take Merrill over Wood.
Preller getting Merrill locked up on that deal I would have thought would keep Padre fans happy for quite a while. To say nothing of that fresh 93 win season while having the 2nd best record in baseball today. It’s not like they made a big trade that didn’t work out and then they sucked because of it.
@Easy as 1 2 3 Those in charge of things in San Diego knew Seidler was on borrowed time. Deal with it.
@padrepapi…
“I’d take King over Gore.”
Maybe you would but none of the GM’s would.
“I’d take Merrill over Gore, Abrams and Susana. I’d take Merrill over Wood.”
We should have all of them.
Every GM would take king over gore this season. None of them would do the trade because of the contract status.
Yes the padres would be better setup if they never made the Soto trade.
They went for it in 22’ and came pretty close though tatis issues hurt them.
23’ is one of the reasons you play the games. Padres lost so many one run games and started the season 0-12 in extra innings. You replay that season 10 times padres likely make the playoffs 7-8 of them.
Either way the there are no take backs. The Padres are still a very good team. Preller will likely make another move this season if not more than one.
I disagree. I don’t think anyone thought Seidler would be passing 16 months after the first Soto trade.
Every GM in baseball would take King over Gore if their contracts were the same…which they’re not..because King has proven himself as an ace the last year and half.
“Yes the padres would be better setup if they never made the Soto trade.”
That’s it! That’s the point I’ve been making this entire time!
@straightuphonestguy He and those close to him knew. Just because they were cagey about his health doesn’t mean it wasn’t known.
Because he’s further into arb*
At this summer’s trade deadline MacKenzie Gore will have the same amount of club control remaining that Juan Soto had when he was traded.
That is why I said it was stupid to not manipulate his service time.
@rallygoose
Sure those close to him probably knew he was on borrowed time
You however didn’t have a clue. You weren’t privy to that information
Trying to suggest him saying he can’t take money with him was him trying to tell us he was dying was a stupid comment. Deal with it.
@Easy as 1 2 3 I don’t have inside information, no. But my friends and I suspected it like a year before he died.
It’s not a stupid comment at all.
Sure you did. It’s still a stupid comment.
Nothing suggested Seidler was ill considering he was pretty active around the league and involved in so many things regarding padres constantly in the media
Suggesting an off hand comment like “can’t take it with you” meant he was dying soon was stupid no matter how you spin it. It suggested nothing about his illness or how much time he “had”. We don’t even know how much time he “had” to this day.
I looked up the quote you suggested. You completely left out of the part where he said “i like spending money”. Yeah definitely the comments of a dying man talking about living his best life spending his money how he wants. Exact attitude you’d expect from someone dying. Or in reality not.
My prediction is you’ll follow this up with another stupid comment justifying the original stupid comment more.
I did. It’s not a stupid comment. Seidler knew he was on borrowed time. That is the important part. And absolutely it sounds like the comments of a dying man. My grandpa always said the best way to live life is to have your last check bounce.
Abrams isn’t the most durable player. Woods is raking and has a chance to be a bonafide star. Hassell we’re still waiting on. Gore has been solid so far. Susanna has a chance at best…
And any/all of them could have been traded on their own for starting pitching if you honestly and truly didn’t believe in them. No need to trade for Juan Soto whose trade value was decreasing with each passing day as an interim step.
Who is Woods?
Natalie never had this problem
James Woods – pretty good actor.
They traded bats to the Nats as well…hahahaha
Great trade for the Nats.
Wood seems to be really clicking with potential for more if he lowers his GB rate but the best decision probably was to buy low on gore who really struggled with command that time.
The Nats could have easily gotten a lesser prospect who performed to like a 900 ops or 2.5 era to play it “safe” but they went for gore believing he can be fixed, saying “we don’t care how good we will be in 22 and 23, give me the highest upside for 25 and beyond”.
This decision could have backfired if gore was a bust but being in a division with the braves, Phillies and 300 million dollar payroll mets shooting for the maximum upside was the right thing to do.
They still have some catch up to do to catch up to the big 3 but at least they have a chance now
The sad thing for the Nats is how many pieces away they still are. It didn’t help that the Scherzer/Turner trade has fizzled for them too.
Realistically, if they went out and got 2 SP’s who were #2-3 rotation types, and a couple of bullpen pieces, they could be a WC contender as soon as next year (or this year, if they’re active at the deadline).
Rough time to be a fridge playoff contender in the NL.
Trading for Soto One of the Worst Trades in San Diego Padres history
(and there have been a lot of them over decades).
If Preller passes on Soto, then CJ Abrams starts @ Shortstop.
James Wood is the Padres LF.
A Padres OF of Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and James Wood would be the best in baseball.
McKenzie Gore is in the Padres rotation
And, Preller does not sign Xander Bogaerts that saves the Padres a ton of cash both short and long term.\
Susanna is soaring breaking out in the minors and becomes another major league asset for the Padres.
Robert Hassell III is now not injured and health again and along with
SS Leo De Vries(hit for cycle in minors) and minor league catching phenom Ethan Salas would give the Padres a very young championship core for a long window of contention.
Preller could still have traded for an found under the radar guys similar to King etc for the rotation and bullpen.
Soto did not produce what was expected for his 1st half seasons in SD and did not help SD qualify for and win a World Series.
Soto is a good p[ayer, but he was a disappointment in SD.
In his 2nd year, he started to hit, but was not worth stripping the Padres farm system of multiple long term “building” blocks of top young prospects/future star young players.
Most knowledgeable baseball fans knew from the git-go that Padres ownership, in a smaller market City, was not ever giving Soto a long term deal for 500M, 600M 700M.(and then fill out their roster with AAA and utility players?!)
Obviously, the economics in small to medium market San Diego never worked for such a deal
Pretty much the case. But I find it amazing that the team is still really good in 2025! Kolek and Sheets are emerging talents. I wish we had Wood but Tears, Fountain and Hightower next up.
They’d be 38-0 without the Soto trades.
And they would have colonized Venus by now also
Probably