Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola is already on the injured list but won’t be returning soon. Per Matt Gelb of The Athletic, a recent MRI revealed a stress reaction in his right rib cage. He won’t throw for the next two weeks.
Nola landed on the 15-day IL almost a month ago due to a sprained right ankle. It’s unclear how or when he suffered this rib injury but it’s a notable setback for him. Even if he’s healthy two weeks from now, it will have been about six weeks since his most recent game action. At that point, he’ll have to ramp back up into game shape. As noted by Gelb, it’s now possible that Nola won’t return until after the All-Star break.
Prior to hitting the IL, Nola wasn’t having his best season, with a 6.16 earned run average in nine starts. However, that may not have been entirely his fault. His 23.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate were fairly close to his previous levels, while his .348 batting average on balls in play and 68.7% strand rate were both to the unlucky side. ERA estimators like his 5.00 FIP and especially his 3.63 SIERA felt he deserved far better.
He now won’t get a chance to improve his numbers for a while. As he has been out of action, the Phils have endured their toughest stretch of the season. They have lost nine of their past eleven contests, dropping them to four games back of the Mets in the National League East.
On paper, the Philadelphia rotation is strong even without Nola in it. They still have Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo and Mick Abel. However, Wheeler recently spent some time on the paternity list and Luzardo’s past two starts have been awful. Abel’s big league numbers are good so far but he literally has two starts under his belt.
Ideally, that group can help the team right the ship in the coming weeks. If not, the Phils have some potential in-house pivots. Prospect Andrew Painter is now healthy and putting up decent numbers in Triple-A, though he may have workload concerns after missing all of the previous two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. Taijuan Walker is currently in the bullpen and could return to the rotation, though getting stretched out midseason can be a challenge.
The trade deadline is on July 31st, which may coincide with Nola’s return to the big league club. Given the starting options the Phils already have on hand, trading for more help is probably not the top of their to-do list, but it’s always possible that more injuries pop up or that Nola experiences another setback of some kind.
Photo courtesy of Bill Streicher, Imagn Images
32 years old, 1-7 record in 2025, 6.16 era, 5 1/2 more years left on his deal and about 135 mil $
yikes
overreacting as always 6.16 era inflated by one bad start he has 2 great start 2 decent starts
Small sample size, sure, but that looked like a bad contract before the ink dried and I’m sure it will turn out that way.
Perhaps, his performance is related to his injury.
@Chuck
If you say that enough times about every player, you’re bound to be right like a broken clock twice a day.
Nah, it’s a good contract. He’s paid to pitch in the number 2–4 spots in the starting rotation, and he’ll live up to that. He’s always had a couple of horrible starts, but most of the time he’s pretty good.
Most broken clocks are no longer right twice a day.
Right you are, Susannah. Only broken clocks with hands are right twice a day.
“Overreacting as always..one bad start”…Ultimately, you are what your record and statistics say you are. And to my eyes, it’s been more than “one bad start”.
With the innings pitched by guys like Nola(1/3 of season is completed), it generally takes a lot more than “one bad start” to inflate your E.R.A to north of 6+ runs per.
He’s had 8 starts and was injured for a few of them. Tough to say what he is yet.
“8 starts..tough to say what he is”..Nola has a rather amazing record of health and durability. There’s actually plenty of data to tell and assess “what he is”. His 9 starts this year cannot be ignored.
His over 270+ games(6 str8 yrs of 30+ starts, not counting covid yr) started in the Major Leagues tells me he is a very healthy, extremely durable and capable #3 starter. I believe before it’s over he’ll justify his contract.
Mahalo mlb fan
Tons of philly phaithful have dogged on him for years…
Tough to say what he is yet.
========================
He had two brilliant starts prior to his injury. Way too early for pronouncements.
OTOH, he has a 100 ERA+ from 2023-2025. I don’t think he’s finished, but I also wouldn’t want to be on the hook for 5+ seasons.
“Dogged on him for years”…You don’t mean the same “Philly Phaithful” that once booed and “dogged on” Santa Claus do you?
That was Eagles fans in the 70s. Mets fans have booed Soto, Alonso, and Lindor. Let’s keep talking about Santa.
one bad start? what planet u livin on, boy?
5ip, 5 runs
5ip, 7 runs
6ip, 4 runs
5ip, 4 runs
3ip, 9 runs
Always does better second half
Bring up Painter!
Paint your wagon.
Keith
his AAA stats are not that impressive.
The Phillies are a mess.
And still 10 over .500 somehow. They seem to alternate between being the hottest team and baseball or the coldest. The Mets are far more consistent.
*in baseball
The starting rotation is the only thing keeping the Phillies’ boat afloat.
Offense is a big problem; they have only scored 4 runs or more three times in the last 11 games.
My God, what’s happened to Luzardo? Even the good pitches he’s made are getting KO’d.
The Phillies should be selling at the TD. JT, Schwarber, Castellanos, etc. Only Wheeler, Harper, and Turner untouchable. Time to start over. Phillies window is closed.
And yet, they are very much in contention. This is a silly post based on a significant skid. Before this skid, they won 10 games in a row. I’m not saying there’s no need to panic. With Harper injured, the other stars are flailing. The loss of Alvarado destroyed the bullpen. The Nola injury seems significant, and Luzardo was a Cy Young candidate before 2 historically bad and alarming starts. So all is not rosey in Philly, but they’re 10 games over .500 and firmly in a playoff spot. They have a great rotation, and some young promising talent in Abel, Crawford, Painter and more. They will almost certainly be aggressive at the deadline. It’s foolish to count them out because of recency bias.
I wonder how long it’s been since someone gave up 20+ earned runs in back-to-back stats.
Looks like the Phillies are taking a page from the 76’ers w/ this BS.
Nola has been great his entire career. Hopefully giving him this barrage of “stuff” will allow him to come back and e the #2 he is….
Thoracic Outlet Syndome?
Phillies acquire:
– Zach Eflin (1/$18M – holds down 5th starter spot until Nola returns, kicks to bullpen for post season just like in 2022, some nostalgia as well)
– Felix Bautista RHP (arb1 – true closer allows Romano, Strahm, Kerkering to work 7th/8th)
Orioles acquire:
– Taijuan Walker RHP (2/$36M)
– Mick Abel RHP (Desperate enough for young SP star, and pitching in general, that they agree to take Taijuan in hopes of competing next year)
– Johan Rojas CF (Mullins is a FA, can allocate FA dollars towards pitching)
Baltimore hangs up the phone in seconds. Bautista has two more arbitration years after this one. You’re not getting him for that 2/3 package of slop
You can always count on “Mr. McNasty” and “chandlerbing” for constant negativity.
When Walker looks like a better pitcher I’d go hide my face for a few weeks too. Honestly, he’s the only pitcher on the staff you expect to fail, even before this year. He excels at disappointing fans. But hey, 5.5 more years, he’s super young will only get better.
Walker has been MUCH better than any Phillies fan could have imagined when the season started. He’s pitching higher leverage innings. Thought he would be mop up at best when season started.
Would have offered 99 x 3 or take a walk. He’s going to be a millstone.