The Orioles' decision to tender Ryan Mountcastle an arbitration contract was surprising in November. The already odd fit became all the more so when the O's signed Pete Alonso to a five-year deal at the Winter Meetings. Mountcastle hasn't had a real path to playing time since that signing, yet he remains on Baltimore's roster.
An initial out would have been for the O's to proceed to an arbitration hearing, then release Mountcastle during Spring Training. Arbitration salaries that are determined at a hearing aren't fully guaranteed until Opening Day (whether the player wins or loses). Teams can release those players during Spring Training for 30 or 45 days termination pay, depending on when they make that move.
It wouldn't have been an ideal sequence to drop Mountcastle for a little over $1MM, but that situation isn't without precedent. The Giants' decision to release J.D. Davis in Spring Training two years ago was motivated by the Matt Chapman signing, which didn't take place until after they'd tendered Davis an arbitration contract.
It appears that Mountcastle's camp learned from the Davis situation. Arbitration hearing salaries aren't fully guaranteed during the spring, but settlements are locked in at the time of signing. Mountcastle and the Orioles reached a settlement in the middle of January on a $6.787MM deal for 2026, with a $7.5MM club option for the '27 season. Mountcastle's '26 salary is an exact match for what he earned last year.
That's a savvy move by his representatives, who were clearly aware of the termination pay possibility. Arbitration salaries essentially never decrease year over year, so the $6.787MM number would have been the floor had he gone to a hearing, but it wouldn't have been locked in until Opening Day. By settling, he ensured that money is fully guaranteed. In exchange, the Orioles picked up the club option that gives them control over a potential free agent year. They did something similar with Ryan O'Hearn a couple seasons ago and were rewarded when O'Hearn played well enough to make an $8MM club option an absolute bargain.
None of that addresses the roster glut, though. It's frankly difficult to see a path in which Mountcastle is a near-$7MM value to the Orioles in either of the next two years. Alonso basically never takes a day off, so Mountcastle is not going to get first base reps unless the Polar Bear gets injured. They're likely to divide most of the DH playing time between their two catchers and/or Tyler O'Neill.
Holding Mountcastle as a bench bat isn't ideal for anyone. It's a roster spot they'd probably rather use on a utility infielder. They'd be better off clearing the salary and leveraging it into more payroll flexibility at the deadline. The player is entering a potential walk year and should welcome an opportunity to get more at-bats than will be on the table in Baltimore.
That all makes it unsurprising that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in mid-February that the O's were still open to trades involving Mountcastle and Coby Mayo. There's less urgency to trade the latter, who can fill in at third base with Jordan Westburg facing an uncertain timeline due to an elbow ligament injury. Mayo also has a minor league option remaining and could be sent to Triple-A if the infield gets too cluttered. The O's don't have that luxury with Mountcastle.
Most of the trade activity is behind us, but we may yet see one or two deals involving notable players before Opening Day. Mountcastle is among the more accomplished players known to be available. He's coming off a poor season in which he hit .250/.286/.367 while missing two months with a hamstring strain. He was a slightly above-average hitter in each of his first four and a half seasons in the big leagues. Mountcastle has never been a star, but he's usually reliable for 1-2 wins above replacement. He's a career .263/.312/.438 hitter in nearly 2700 trips to the plate.
Which teams might still be in touch with O's president of baseball operations Mike Elias?
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Yeah I didn’t agree with tendering him a contract then or now. However, the injuries have made his presence a bit of a decent fall back plan. Are there better roster options even with said injuries? Absolutely. Can you count on every other option making it out of spring training unscathed? I wouldn’t take that bet even if using house money.
You will however have to do something with him. You wont get much for him in a trade but it might be better than literally nothing.
Seems to me he was offered a contract just in case Alonso went back to NY instead. Sooner or later they will probably move him for whatever they get.
That’s an expensive Alonso insurance policy, especially when you could have non tendered Mountcastle and negotiated a closer to market deal (as this well written article explains, there aren’t a lot of landing spots for Mountcastle, particularly at $7 million) or as a fallback played Mayo and/or Basallo at 1B. Rubinstein will eventually realize that Mike Elias is spending a lot of his money and not delivering adequate results.
Feels like one or two of Mountcastle, Kjerstad and Mayo will eventually get traded. Mountcastle at least is decent defensively. The other two may just be DH types, not able to handle any defensive position as a starter.
Braves
Just what the Braves need to use the salary from profar. A 1b that hits like a 2b, and plays LF worse than a ziploc bag full of dog dump with a mitt placed on top.
Mounty has never put it all together, but there is plenty of red on his statcast page. Nobody remembers that he hit 33 HRs his rookie season.
I do
I think that’s why they changed the dimensions of LF at Camden yards. “If this guy can hit 33 HRs then there is something wrong”
Compared to their other options for DH? Murphy is still out until at least May.
Look at the underlying metrics beyond rate stats. Sure he chases, but he punishes the ball usually. The wall hurt him quite a bit.
how long ago would the Braves have known about Profar?
they probably signed Yaz when they found out….
they’re done
Atlanta FO said they found out about Profar failing the test ten minutes before MLB announced it. Yaz was probably signed as insurance when Profar underwent hernia surgery after the season.
I’m assuming Basallo will start the season in AAA to manipulate service time so why not keep him until a good offer presents itself or it sorts itself out naturally. Not costing anybody of significance a roster spot unless I’m missing something?
Basallo signed an extension. He’s up unless he falls flat on his face.
Dam never caught that news that’s pretty sweet for you guys.
I think his power is in a tier where even if the contact is behind a bit he will still run into 30+ HR’s.
They manipulated Sammy’s service time last year, when they kept him down in AAA during a terrible season which coulda used his offense or at least work out that learning curve some, in a season that toast.
They manipulated it so he is still a ROY & PPI eligible. And the Warehouse just loves their PPI picks, and Competitive balance picks!
The manipulation hasn’t gone, it just changed forms.
Disagree with this too. Basallo had about 100 PA’s in AAA before last year. He’s a work in progress defensively and needed to start behind the plate. I dont know that he ever gets to the point of being a decent MLB catcher but the bat is certainly real. Keeping him down and letting him catch in AAA was the smart move.
Catching defense is very important and Basallo is horrible at blocking balls. That really impacts the pitching. I think you’ll see a big difference when Adley is behind the plate v. Basallo
Baltimore — huh? Sammy couldn’t learn at the MLB level how to get better at Catcher when the season was lost and the games were meaningless? Only AAA can make you a better catcher? I’ll disagree with that.
Yes Adley is great at blocking. In fact, he’s Elite at blocking. Best in the business. Hasn’t hit in 2 years though.
If you value balls being caught higher than offensive development and making the tough transition from AAA to MLB (a wide gap, that is getting wider btw), well then…that’s you, np.
Players don’t come up to MLB ready to be an All Star, complete in their development, flawless in thier skills, and without bumps. Adley and Gunnar are exceptions to the rule, not the rule itself. Mayo, Jackson, Heston, or Colton weren’t 100% developed/flawless when they were called up.
Just saying, passed balls holding a guy down in AAA when his offensive profile was in the 99th percentile, and the MLB club had ample time to allow the Sammy to continue to develop without the normal MLB pressures. It was a unique opportunity for development.
And the Orioles did hold him down (because blocking, or PPI…make your own judgement) so I guess even that extra 4 months haven’t worked to make him a better blocker.
Elite bat being kept in AAA to learn defense and blocking better…yeah, we can disagree about that.
Yes I have watched every MLB game Samy has been in. The defense is less than Adley. But Adley is elite at defense…Sammy was never a defense first catcher, always an advanced bat though.
Nobody asking Pete Alonzo to go to AAA because he needs more leather work.
I’d be interested to know how you would’ve determined when Sammy was ready for Promotion. Based on his 2026 Spring Trading blocking, he’d be repeating AAA this year, if blocking were as important to the Orioles as it seems to you.
If a lost season isn’t a good time to develop your number one prospect in AAA, when is??
He did get run at the end of the year at the ML level. I don’t think him getting to start everyday at AAA was bad at all for his development. He wasn’t going to catch everyday in the MLB when Adley was healthy.
I am concerned that he won’t ever be a good catcher and won’t be playing catcher anywhere close to everyday for us this year. I don’t think that’s great for his long term development as a catcher but obviously we’re going to get his bat in the lineup & he’s already paid. (I hope he gets to passable with his blocking so he can stick there)
Catching defense is far more important than 1B defense. Catchers are involved far more in games defensively. This is why Austin Hedges who can’t hit a lick is constantly on winning ball clubs. ;
I hear complaints about the O’s pitching but I fear that Elias doesn’t value defense very highly at all. If Albernaz manages to get this team to have above league average defense he should be the manager of the year. Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso don’t help us at all in that area.
I expect Adley to be much better at the plate this year too. Even with his “poor” offense that’s better than half the C’s in the league. Be huge if he gets back to 2023 numbers.
Baltimore — Well said. We differ I suppose on how much to weight the value of defense. I’m not saying it’s zero, nor are you saying it’s all, so where that balance is…ehh.
There are different types of catcher profiles too; JT Realmuto, or Pudge types that are more bat than glove. Sammy is never going to be as good as Adley defensively, but that’s a very high bar anyway.
We agree that Catchers ought to have their Defensive skills much more sharpened than corner OF or 1B. I don’t think Sammy is as ‘poor’ as most would thing, and definitely not to the point of being a serious flaw to the team or himself/career. Way to early to say a 21 year old with a month of time in the bigs can’t grow more and at a faster rate?
Gunnar was pretty rough around the corners defensively at SS in his first year. Not a polished MLB SS in year 1. But by year 2 he made adjustments, and last year, he looked better than an average SS (imo anyway); better throws, internal game clock slowed, approach angles got better, the feeds were crisp.
Just saying, MLB coaches, resources, are going to round him (and all rookies) out further and faster than AAA.
I feel like folks expect a finished MLB player when guys are called up. It simply means they are ready to adjust to the MLB game, just as they adapted at every level jump.
There is nothing left for Mayo, Beavers, Kjerstad, or Basallo to learn in AAA…they all need MLB time.
And this is where you’d correctly point out, “how you playing all these guys, someones not going to get that time/development, so it’s a waste” (not trying to put words in your mouth, just trying articulate what I understood as one of your points)
That playing time always seems to appear though, yeah? Between days off, injuries, slumps, matchups, ‘pre-cautionary measures’, all players in the 1-9 of the line up will have numerous days off. There are even players on the roster that some folks might just call “fragile” or might just astrix their name everytime with “when healthy”. Not me, I feel that’s unlucky to label such. Tempting fate n’ all.
Last, Elias and defense; Adley, Gunnar, Westberg, Mounty, Cowser, Holliday all were good or better defensive players. Bradfield Jr, Honeycutt, Tavares, Esquval (??), Mateo, or even Mullins and Hayes…I don’t think he’s avoiding defense like the Phillies were constructed. Nor is he like the Pirates that put defensive acuman ahead of offensive. If the Pennsylvania teams are the extrems of those philosophies, I’m happy to lean/tilt offensive makeup. Being in the middle defensively is fine since many of those defensive metrics are less than foolproof (hence why there are 2 different WAR calculations, the defensive metric used and it’s weight in the formula).
To me, the defense is good at the moment, and has the potential (w/ development and time) to become much better. These are young players learning, so they ‘project’ to grow, where as older teams (cough, Dodgers) will see their defense move the other way and regress.
Anyway, appreciate the exchange, good times thanks. Sounds like you might’ve been a catcher in a previous(?) life?
There is nothing left for Mayo, Beavers, Kjerstad, or Basallo to learn in AAA…they all need MLB time
I generally agree with that unless Mayo needs to learn to play the outfield. Basallo’s bat is too good to not be up. It’s just really tough with catchers that absolutely rake like him. The glove doesn’t usually have a chance to catch up when the bat is so good. He has an absolute cannon though. I’m just worried about development behind the plate—-not a lot of catchers as tall as him as well. I think only Tyler Stephenson is his height currently catching in the MLB. (& the Reds have started moving him off C) I think the blocking is too poor to start him there in a playoff series. But I obviously hope that improves &. Like you said he’s just a kid at this point.
I think slightly above average defensively is the absolute ceiling of this team. If you look at the smaller market clubs that have success—defense is a common theme. The Brewers have multiple CF capable outfielders out there at once. Im not sure we have one at the moment. Cowser will play there but he’s really a corner outfielder (if he can hit enough)
Uh what? He’s going to be with the MLB team. PPI pick possibility and he just signed the extension…
You assumed wrong
Unless he gets hurt, there is quite literally zero chance Basallo doesn’t make the opening day roster.
He has already been extended so there is absolutely no need to play service time games with him.
A change of scenery might greatly benefit him. I don’t know how needs a 1B though
In my opinion that goes for Mounty and Kjerstad. Realistically there’s no place for either guy on the O’s right now. Mountcastle is a couple years older but Kjerstad probably still has a higher potential if he can stay healthy which is a big question mark for him. Best case scenario for Kjerstad is he ends up like a Kyle Stowers, where the change of scenery really allows him to flourish.
Mounty however, in the past 3 years, averages 109 games played and a triple slash of .265/.309/.419 at first base. Now his oWAR in ’23/’24 was the best of his career. But again 115 games in ’23 and 124 in ’24. In my opinion he’s a buy low gamble you might get good value out of.
Based on his white hot spring performance, I see no need for any change of scenery for Kjerstad.
He seems quite capable of rebounding as an Oriole and an open spot for 2027 will be there for him since Ward is an impending free agent.
The Rockies could definitely use him. As long as the trade cost was minimal, I wouldn’t mind seeing a major league player at first base in 2026. Mountcastle feels a bit like a Mickey Moniak type pick up and I think he could thrive in Denver.
Troy Johnston was better last year than Mountcastle.
I don’t do the “what have you done for me lately” mentality. Yes, Mountcastle had a rough 2025, but that followed a 5 year stretch of well above average OPS+. I tend to lean toward 2025 being an aberration.
And Johnston’s .292 SLG thus far in Spring Training is making me think he is not the answer.
Johnston has a 107 OPS+ in 44 MLB games.
Mouncastle has a 109 OPS+ in over 650 MLB games.
Considering they are basically the same age, I know who I would bet on to have the superior year in 2026 and it ain’t the 29 year old with less than 50 career MLB games.
No one wants Ryan Mountcastle.
Why do the Orioles (still?) have Mountcastle?
Value.
Ryan Mountcastle is a better than average offensive player, and a better than average defensive player (finalist in GG a couple years running/in a row now). There are many teams that could use a just turned 29 year old (15 days ago) above average player.
Mike Elias is very shrewd/firm about what he sees in player value, seemingly. He’s had a warchest of prospects for years now, and has traded few (stingy?), but those he has have been for the impact MLB players without exception. Well, the Jake Flaherty trade…ehh. Point being, Mike seems very capable of making sure he gets good value, and he won’t over/under sell too often on his perceived value (both internal and market valuations). Elias will find the right deal, or no deal. Excess players is a problem? Says who? Ask Brandon Hyde. Playing time, markets maturing, team health, and team performance will all change, but Mountcastle has a 5 year track record of performance.
Other teams don’t want to match the Orioles value on Mountcastle.
…or
Guilt.
Elias felt so bad about making Mount Walltimore during Mounty’s second full season (Mounty who broke the all time Orioles rookie HR total w/ 33 just a year before), that Elias is simply apologizing to Mountcastle for derailing his career with a redesign of a holy ballpark so as to attract top of the rotation Free Agent starting pitching. Fail. The wall is back(ish), the SP never came, but Mounty is the Bird that flew into Waltimore full speed and broke his lil’ ol’ heart.
Yeah, it’s guilt. Definitely.
Anyway, thanks Anthony, liked the read and the thoughts on possible moves. I personally think Mounty would slay in Wrigley, so maybe the Cubs come around.
0.1 WAR means he was replacement level in 2025. In 2024-2025 he was roughly MLB average.
Right now, he has no surplus value. He is making a lot of money for a player that neither has a position on the field nor a MLB average WAR.
Huh?
Mountcastle has a position and he’s quite solid at that position.
Mountcastle has no position in Baltimore going forward other than DH. Alonso will play 1B.
Last season Mountcastle had a -1 DRS and -1 FRV. That is below average. Combine that with an 83 OPS+/81 wRC+ and that is why he is seen as the short side of the platoon with Basallo at DH going forward.
No surplus value means he will be extremely hard to trade unless the Orioles are eating most if not all of this salary.
Mounty can play 1B at an average to slightly above average clip defensively. I hope we dump him off somewhere where he can get reps because it’s tough sledding here.
Colorado would work. Miami makes sense too. There will be no return on the trade.
Web — Mounty put up back-to-back seasons of 2.0+ WAR before last season. He got hurt last year, played the least amount games in his career. He has an 8+ WAR for his 6 year career, with last year being 0.1.
OPS+ says Ryan Mountcastle has 5 years over 100, and last year he didn’t, last year.
How about wRC+, yeah 5 of 6 years over 100+ (last year the outlier). For what it’s worth, Fangraphs ‘projection’ is for a 100+ wRC in 2026 for Mounty.
If by ‘he doesn’t have surplus value’ you mean that Elias sees the 5years of performance as the valuation, and an aquring team would like to deal at his 2025 season values, then yeah…sure.
But he’s not last year’s player, and any team that would acquire him would quickly pivot publicly and talk up the 5years of solid performance.
I think the league sees the Orioles having excesses and want discounts since they are excess to the Orioles. Mike wants fair value and doesn’t do discounts or give aways. (Well, the Grayson was an odd one though. Close to a give away/discount)
2.0 WAR is league average. At his best, that is what Mountcastle is. Last year he was not close to that.
He had a -1 DRS and -1 FRV as a 1B. That is below average. Combine that with an 83 OPS+/81 wRC+ and that is why he is seen as the short side of the platoon with Basallo at DH going forward.
In trades, it’s all about what have you done for me lately. With a $6.8 million salary and no position in Baltimore going forward, he has no surplus value and players need surplus value to get anything other than salary relief in trade.
Web — MLB executives look at more than just a players previous year when evaluating players/trades. If you are unaware/doubt that, well, cool. You do you bud.
They do look at more than last season, and they weight it 2/3 last season and then what those players did the last 2-3 years before that. So that means in Mountcastle’s case they are looking at 66% of 0.1 WAR and 33% of 2.1 WAR. If that was not the case then he would have been traded by now.
I will go with my 30+ years of experience working in that area of the game and you can do you boo.
Web — Your clarification helps me understand your point better, I believe. I’ll assume, (correct me if I’m mistaken) your 66/33 figure is limited to Mountcastle esq trades; ie. an MLB regular for same. (Grayson Rodriguez for Tylor Ward doesn’t fit this profile, correct, as it’s a full injured season for the 66% valuation).
However, that would also suppose the Orioles are looking for an MLB regular in a return for Mountcastle. If Elias and co. wanted an MLB ready minor leaguer, is the same 66/33 equation used?
Regardless, other factors like team control, player salery(s), payroll, team goals, etc. are just 1% of a trade valuations of player trades? Hard to imagine.
Furthermore, 66/33 as an industry standard is possibly harder to imagine.
Skeptical. What’s being mistaken? Can you support/elaborate your claims further?
Colorado
DePodesta values OBP far too much to trade for a guy like Mountcastle.
He signed Willi Castro. Tell me about how in tune you are with Depodesta.
move horowitz to 3rd, play Mountcastle at first, duh!
Spencer Horowitz? He has played 3B zero times as a professional. And there is a reason why.
Mountcastle would be a decent fit for the Nats. I just don’t see them making the move unless he ends up DFA’d and waived.
They can’t without paying nearly all of his 2026 salary. He has little if any value. To get rid of him they will have to pay to get rid of him. Better to just keep him and hope that by the deadline he performs well enough to have at least a modicum of value.
If you attach prospect capital, you could just send the salary and stuff to a rebuilding team. Someone said it, the Nationals or Rockies.
That is true. Attach a prospect with some value and get a team to eat Mountcastle’s salary.
I don’t think the Rockies would be a fit because DePo values OBP so highly. What prospect(s) do you think it would take to get the Nationals to take Mountcastle’s salary?
Levi Wells? Nestor German?
I was thinking more along the lines of Clemmey, but maybe just a lottery ticket like Marconi German.
Who’s Clemmey?
Sorry, at a ball game right now and looked at wrong team.
Bateman or a lottery ticket like De La Cruz.
The Orioles are not going to attach either one of those guys to shed $6MM in any world. Elias agreed to trade Laureano because he liked Bateman enough to do so. As a pads fan you should’ve prob been up on that.
Absolutely crazy thought… the Red Sox. There’s still some questions about Cassas’s health and not a lot of options to back up Contreras. Not pushing it, not trying to figure out the logistics, just throwing it out there.
Unless an injury occurs elsewhere it’s probably not likely the Orioles find a taker at this point in the spring. With Westburg and Holiday out the O’s don’t face the roster crunch of Mountcastle or Mayo and can carry both, at least for a little while. Let the numbers make the decision after that
Korea?
What about it?
Mounty will dh at least against lefties and more if back to 2024 levels… if he slumps again yes to the bench or cut… you don’t give away someone with gold glove potential that can shore up Alfonso in late inning defense or push him to dh instead. Other dh options aren’t guaranteed to hit better. Mounty was 20-30 hr power. That’s worth something if he proves a rebound to norm after injuries.
What is Mountcastle’s norm that he’s rebounding back to?
33 HR is the exception. His other seasons are more like 15-18 based on him appearing in 110-120 games. Pro rate from there if he does not.
Also, Mountcastle displayed very good defense in 2024 but gold glove potential is a bit of a stretch especially when he’s a platoon guy. In 2023 he was decent. Last year’s bit below average numbers returned to what we saw prior to 2023.
I’m not picking on this particular item, but its better to look at stats with a neutral eye and not the orange-tinted one hoping that every player always realizes their potential. Like holding up Mateo as viable due to his 2022 fielding numbers when they declined steadily the next 3 years, and for hitting well for one month otherwise being 20% below league average or worse for his entire tenure.
Its an example of Elias being perfectly comfortable with wasting smaller amounts of money for low production while avoiding big money for productive top of the rotation pitching. Mountcastle is not worth 6.8M. That is why he remains an Oriole, 31 other teams agree he’s not worth that. Mateo wasn’t worth 3.4M last year, either.
We can hope that the norm for Adley and Gunnar are back in 2023 to early 2024 not what we’ve seen since then. But if they don’t the new norm has to be accepted.