The Padres are looking to upgrade in left field and Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that Jarren Duran of the Red Sox is on their list of trade targets. They have been interested in Duran before, as they were connected to him in rumors ahead of the 2024 season.
Given the prior interest, it’s not especially surprising that the Friars still have their eyes on him. They weren’t able to pry him loose ahead of last year but wound up with a cheap solution for their left field opening, as they looked to replace Juan Soto without having much to spend. They signed Jurickson Profar for just $1MM and got a career year out of him, though obviously that now looks suspect in the wake of his recent PED suspension.
Going into 2025, the Friars once again had financial limitations and tried to grab more lightning in a bottle. They brought in a number of players on small deals and minor league pacts, adding them to their incumbent options. So far, they have tried eight different players in left: Jason Heyward, Oscar González, Brandon Lockridge, Gavin Sheets, Tirso Ornelas, Tyler Wade, Jose Iglesias and Connor Joe.
No one in that group has been a solution so far. González is now playing in Japan. Heyward hit .176/.223/.271 before landing on the injured list with an oblique strain. Ornelas has hit .071/.188/.071 in the majors and is on optional assignment. Joe was traded to the Reds. Wade, Iglesias and Lockridge are mostly glove-first multi-positional guys. Sheets is having a good year at the plate but is not a good defender in left. He also departed yesterday’s game after colliding with the left field wall while trying to catch a home run ball.
Duran, on the other hand, is a great left fielder. Last year, he hit 21 home runs and slashed .285/.342/.492 for a 129 wRC+. He stole 34 bases and got strong marks for his glovework, splitting his time almost equally between center and left. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 6.7 wins above replacement on the year.
Here in 2025, his offense is down. He has just four home runs so far. His walk rate has also fallen from last year’s 7.3% to this year’s 5.7% mark. That gives him a .264/.312/.406 line and 97 wRC+. His Statcast numbers are a mixed bag. His hard hit rate and exit velocity are up relative to last year but he’s barreling the ball less. His home run to fly ball rate has almost been cut in half, going from 11.7% last year to 6% this year.
Whether he can get back to last year’s offense is hard to say but he does have 13 steals. His glovework isn’t getting the glowing marks it did last year but those numbers can get a bit wonky in small samples.
Regardless of this year’s slide, Duran would be a nice upgrade over anything the Padres currently have in house. There’s also the financial element to consider, as the Friars have clearly been operating with limited funds for years now. Duran just qualified for arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player in the most recent offseason.
He and the Red Sox didn’t agree to terms ahead of the filing deadline but eventually avoided arbitration. He is making a $3.75MM salary this year with a $100K buyout on an $8MM club option for 2026. That option can climb as high as $12MM via escalators. Even if that option is turned down, Duran can still be retained via arbitration for 2026, and through the 2028 season as well.
The combination of his skills, control and affordable salary makes the interest from the Padres very easy to understand. However, those attributes also give him plenty of appeal to the Red Sox and it’s unclear if they have any interest in moving him while he could still be a key part of their club for years to come.
It is possible to imagine a scenario where they consider it. The Sox currently have a crowded outfield mix, with Duran usually slotting in next to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela and right fielder Wilyer Abreu, while Rob Refsnyder is on hand as a bench outfielder. Masataka Yoshida would be in the mix if he were healthy. Rafael Devers has the designated hitter spot taken almost every day. The situation is such that Roman Anthony, considered by many to be the top prospect in baseball, can’t get a call-up even as he is destroying Triple-A pitching.
The Sox are also having a bit of a disappointing season on the whole, currently sporting a record of 29-32. They are only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot but would have to leapfrog many teams to get into postseason position. Their injured list currently features Yoshida, Alex Bregman, Triston Casas and a number of pitchers.
Over the coming weeks, it’s possible that they slide further back in the crowded American League playoff race. In that scenario, perhaps they decide that they want to make Duran available. Trading him would open left field for Anthony while presumably bringing back some valuable pieces in the trade as well.
However, that’s a lot of speculation. And even if becomes more realistic, the Padres surely wouldn’t be the only club with interest. As noted by Lin, the Friars have traded away a lot of prospects in recent years. Even with their clear interest, they may not have the prospect capital to get a deal done. Their system is headlined by two highly-ranked prospects in Ethan Salas and Leo De Vries but reporting has generally indicated the Padres want to hold onto those two as their future catcher and shortstop respectively.
Even if the Padres are willing to further subtract from their system, they might also have to think about their rotation, as Lin points out. Michael King and Yu Darvish are on the injured list right now, which further subtracts from a group that was already top-heavy to begin the year.
There are plenty of variables involved here and there’s still lots of time until the trade deadline, but it’s a situation to monitor for now with more rumors surely to follow. This year’s trade deadline is on July 31st.
Photo courtesy of Brett Davis, Imagn Images
Let the Fire Sale in Boston begin.
Fat chance, no?
Gwynn – Talk about clickbait! LOL!!!
It’s impossible to predict. Neither Duran nor Rafaela nor Anthony has played hardly any right field compared to other positions, so that leads one to believe Abreu won’t be traded … but who knows with Sox management being so scatterbrained.
Any team would love to have Duran, obviously.
Why is it clickbait? I’m not sure you under what that is. Might want to do a little research before embarrassing yourself.
Without providing a possible return (mentioning two top prospects that won’t likely be traded doesn’t qualify IMO), these articles are always click bait to me. I can see multiple trades if they don’t turn things around and even one like Duran if they do.
Fever – Based on gut instinct and the proverbial twenty pounds of Kentucky windage, I have always felt that Cora has had a relatively low opinion of Duran, so this wouldn’t surprise me. The same way John Farrell never seemed to like guys like Blake Swihart.
The very straightforward title of this article (“Padres Interested in Jarren Duran” when I saw it) and the fact that it’s accurate to the contents therein definitionally exclude it from being “clickbait”.
Let, I usually agree with your posts even if I don’t respond. I found myself though scratching my head on this comparison. We’ll never know on Swihart had he not gotten hurt but his upside to me seems like a Connor Wong who will never have a year like Duran had last season. I still crack up on how us Sox fans back in the day always first put Swihart well above Ref and then laughed at how both were overrated by Sox and Yankee fans. I congratulate Ref every time he plays as he busted his hump to become perhaps the top righty pinch hitter (and more) in the game. He’ll become a manager in my view, possibly succeeding Cora if a) he’s retired by then and b) Tek turns down the job. Outside of money and staying in the community, I would not want to play for Henry.
Let, I usually agree with your posts even if I don’t respond. I found myself though scratching my head on this comparison. We’ll never know on Swihart had he not gotten hurt but his upside to me seems like a Connor Wong who will never have a year like Duran had last season. I still crack up on how us Sox fans back in the day always first put Swihart well above Ref and then laughed at how both were overrated by Sox and Yankee fans. I congratulate Ref every time he plays as he busted his hump to become perhaps the top righty pinch hitter (and more) in the game. He’ll become a manager in my view, possibly succeeding Cora if a) he’s retired by then and b) Tek turns down the job. Outside of money and staying in the community, I would not want to work for Henry.
dewey – Absolutely, it’s amusing clickbait by Dennis Lin. That’s why I laughed so hard when I saw the article, it’s just like all the “interest in” articles we all laughed about during the offseason that never had any merit.
1) No source named, just an anonymous “league source”
2) No mention of who the Padres are willing to trade
3) No mention of reaction from the Red Sox
4) Already known the Padres pursued Duran a year ago
5) No signs anywhere of the Sox being willing to trade Duran now
Padres desperately need a LF and Duran is a star LF on a team with a losing record, so Lin decided to create the news.
As creepy as Pete Abe sounded by saying this tonight, he compared this story to him having interest in Sydney Sweeney ….. and he was right on point.
let – Sorry to say your gut instinct is wrong on this one, Duran has repeatedly given a ton of credit to Cora for sticking with him and supporting him during the dark days.
Meow – I’ve already written in great detail why the article is clickbait, but once again I’ll reiterate Lin is the one guilty of it. This site is not, because it’s a rumors site and any rumor coming from The Athletic is going to draw attention.
Now if you still think the Padres having interest in Duran, a star who is still under team control by the Red Sox, is a legit story …. well then no amount of logic will make a difference here.
dewey – Based on what I saw in The Clubhouse, I don’t think Ref would make a good manager. I’ll leave it at that.
Yes, because LF and RF are so dissimilar. Sure, you would like the RF to have a strong arm, but its not a requirement.
stymee – In Fenway it is a requirement. Can you name a Red Sox starting right fielder who had a weak arm?
Right Center = 380 feet
Deep Right Center = 420 feet
Pretty much nailed it right there Fever
They could ask Devers to play RF. Just for the fun of it.
Fever, didn’t see it so I can’t respond…
The media siting each other’s made up rumor.
Lord – Devers was taking grounders at shortstop prior to yesterday’s game, for real. Just for the fun of it. LOL!
lol, you’re funny
Bad take. Cora loves Duran.
Now that’s a team guy.
Padres do not have the prospects or the pitcher the Sox need. hence “clickbait”
But if the rumor is even only 5% true, why dangle a guy like Duran who has three years of control left after this one? Trade Rafaela, Bello or Wong. Granted, you won’t get the return, but those are three guys you wouldn’t miss.
give me a break
What do you think the point of trading is?
Rafaela you will need to include money and or prospects to move, and is younger and actually a good defender in CF.
I don’t think Boston will have any takers for him, but I suppose you could just bench him and all that money they spent extending him.
Semantics man. We all know what he means.
He has taken grounders and throws at 1B for more than a week now and not just for the fun of it.
Tell you what, Gwynning…….
Your Padres are missing Kim at SS something awful. Even if he hits .220. It’s not so much a knock on Bogaerts – who was never a good defensive SS and is now on the downside – as that Kim was simply a solid, consistent, sensational SS with the Padres.
The Catcher and SS make a teams defense go, and that supports the pitchers…..which is especially important since they started counting pitches and take pitchers out of the game when they hit a certain number.
hard to miss Kim too much, he hasn’t played in a game in 2025
Miss Kim? Sure, in more ways than one. Was it feasible to retain him? Not even at half the money he got from Tampa. I’m happy for Kim, and like Brewski said- he hasn’t played a game in ’25- but SS is Leo’s turf “pretty soon”… X is just a spot on the map until then, Sammy!
Kim hasn’t played in the majors. He played defense for the 1st time in a game yesterday in AAA rehab and is 2 for 16. The chances of Kim playing even average defense in 2025 is nil.
Perhaps MLBTR is missing out on an opportunity here. They should probably add a section so that the posters that seem to live on here can add their baseball credentials for everyone to see.
Of course, the most commonly checked credential box would be the one that says “I spend all of my time in the mlbtr comments section telling everyone how much I know about baseball, calling the actual GM’s and manager’s and ownership idiots 99% of the time and pounding the keyboard all day long.”
Carver – Serious question here, do you own or run a competing baseball website?
If not, why are you trying to shame people into making MLBTR less active by pressuring them to post less?
What is your true motive for wanting to reduce traffic and views here?
Fever – Yet again you are just making stuff up. No competing website, no agenda, and no motives. I am certain that Tim and Co. are not worried about losing eyeball time from the large batch of regulars that are incredibly verbose, self-styled experts that spend 24/7 around here as they will not be shamed into being less active.
I am simply observing what to me is a part of the mysterious circus of the social media age, and that is folks that spend all day filling a comments section with their, uhhh, somewhat chaotic and self-reverent ramblings and “analysis”.
The paid writers on the site probably spend less time on here than some of the commentary litter kitties. But if that is what floats a boat, then I guess they should enjoy the cruise.
Carver – This is a place where people come to have fun talkin’ baseball, you don’t appear to be here for that reason.
Why do I say that?
Well first of all you just accused me of “making stuff up” when my post contained LITERALLY nothing more than 3 questions. How you managed to get “making stuff up” from only questions is quite disturbing, actually.
Secondly you’re incredibly presumptuous to claim you know how much time people spend here and how long it takes them to post. Unlike you I don’t have the audacity to speak for others on this topic, but speaking for myself it takes me approximately 2-3 minutes on average to post. I’m not a 1-finger typist, I type quite fast. If you assume everyone types at your speed, then you’re projecting which is not cool.
Lastly, the staff here works their butt off putting in a lot of time and effort to provide so much content. Most people can see that by reading the articles. Seems like you just wanted an excuse to take another shot at this site.
If you can’t focus on baseball and have no intention of contributing to the enjoyment of this place, then you’re probably better off moving on.
Retired Automotive Engineer living, riding motorcycle and flying around Africa…. Don’t criticize others what they do in their spare time cause you will never understand. I happen to look forward to reading this blog and everyone’s comments.
Tell ya’ what FPG – we will probably never see eye to eye. You say a lot of trash, and come across as a pretentious know-it-all when from a baseball standpoint you do not have the depth and standing to preach the way that you do.
I am always supportive of Tim and the crew and the site, when way too many others are carping about grammar and spelling and presentation at every opportunity for a rumors site that has been incredibly successful. I have zero issues with them; just with a certain group of keyboard warriors that make the comments section such a silly place too much of the time.
I go back and forth on whether to even read the comments, however there is also a large group of interesting posters that brings me back after I avoid it for stretches of time. Solid folks that present opinions as such, don’t talk down to posters that don’t deserve it, don’t spend time trolling as their main approach, and don’t live and die on filling up a comments board with treatise after exposition after rambling monologue to live and die on a hill that is not even worth the stroll.
To answer some of your other nonsense – chances are high that I type faster than you do (yet another one of your incorrect assumptions); for sure I carry on real baseball conversations with those that are worth the time, and only when you buy this site should you tell me whether I should be on here or not.
And I have now spent time attempting to answer a friggin’ comments board hero, which I know is an utterly foolish endeavor from the start…and that is my fault. Given that you chose to answer my post, I engaged, knowing full well that it would be a waste of time. Have a nice rest of the day.
@GarryHarris – I can usually tell who are the retired or semi-retired folks from their approach and I had you pegged correctly. As a semi-retired dude myself that now writes full-time, I get your point and nothing was aimed at you – or anyone in particular…just a subset of the comments section.
Sorry that you took offense, but frankly my critique of the keyboard warriors and their relative waste of space on here remains. This isn’t about those that simply spend time and both share, engage and listen as if they are in person while holding a conversation. It is the social media keyboard warriors (usually – but not always – young or relatively young punks that define Mr. Dunning and Mr. Kruger) who spawned my temporary ire.
Carver, your comments to FPG, which are on the money, are why most of us that have been on here for years have muted him.
Carver – Let’s summarize, and I promise this won’t take long.
1) You initiated this discussion out of the blue (not in response to anyone) by slamming this website and the people who spend time here. That’s all you talked about, you mentioned absolutely nothing about baseball.
It takes a whole lot of ignorance for you to not realize that makes YOU the troll that you accuse everyone else of being.. That makes YOU the keyboard warrior that you excuse everyone else of being. All your accusations are hilarious when you follow them up with behavior that directly points to YOU being what you accuse others of being.
2) Your reading comprehension absolutely sucks. You still don’t understand that “making stuff up” requires making statements, and questions are obviously not statements.
I could go on, but I won’t.
2 minutes, times up, you’re muted, go try to troll someone else.
And yet some of us do have backgrounds, or credentials… but a lot of the people I’ve read silently on here for years before I ever posted are pretty smart and knowledgeable and do make very solid points. That’s why I wanted to start engaging.
Don’t always think you know your audience, there are some lurkers here and this isn’t really that huge of a community.
I agree hat some are rude and disrespectful. I get mad at some too.
@cdr9er – I am not sure who your reply is to, but if to me please note the couple of times that I clearly made it known that my comments are contained to the noteworthy keyboard warriors that litter the field.
I know that I clearly said that the only reason that I come on here is that there are a number of very solid posters that are not only fairly knowledgeable but also treat this as a real conversation with give and take and perhaps some shared wisdom, rather than a competition to drown out the rest with off-key babble-speak and grating nonsense.
The reality is that it is endemic to this type of social media interaction, and everyone is aware of the phenomenon. There are tons of folks out there where “winning” is described as sitting at their keyboards all day long, talking trash to gain some cheap thrill. In real life, they would never say stuff along these lines to someone’s face, or act this way.towards others as it does not work in the meat world, only the virtual world. There is no “one size fits all” when it comes to the trollboyz, but there are certainly a number of shared characteristics.
But most of those on here do not fit that profile – most are simply very much into baseball as an outlet, as am I. It would be nice if we didn’t have to put on waders to find our way through to the gems, but c’est la vie.
Trading Duran wouldn’t indicate a fire sale. It would be more of a case of opening a spot for Roman Anthony who looks to be a more productive OFer than Duran is.
Ken – What do you mean by “create a spot”?
There’s been a spot for him since Day One this season.
Abreu is already being benched against many LHP, and Rafaela could easily become a utility player or get sent down to work on his hitting.
Roman Anthony has never been blocked by anything other than owner greed.
Not many players that are more productive than 8.7 WAR
Duran has averaged 5+ WAR over the last 2 seasons and he only started in 82 games in 2023. Hard to be much more productive than that. All three starting OF are on pace for 3+ WAR, so until one of them falters greatly or is injured, the unproven Anthony will stay in AAA unless he starts doing something historic with the bat. He is hitting well for Worchester, but he isnt top twenty in the International League in BA or OPS.
Duran had 8.7 WAR on baseball Reference last year. Not a lot of guys more productive than that. Any one of the other outfielders on the team would be better for the Sox to trade. Difficult situation since they have 3 solid guys. Play one of them at first!
There’s no fire sale but trading Duran is inevitable. Do it now while this season is in shambles. At least Anthony will get a chance and we can hopefully get some young pitching for him. Or maybe a good first base prospect.
Need to get a really sweet package if you are trading 3+ cost controlled years of a very good player… I don’t think a collection of B prospects will do it.
If this season is in shambles why would the Red Sox want Dylan Cease, Michael King or Luis Arraez back in the trade?
No.
So, what’s up Beantown? Whatcha all want for Mister Mister Duran Duran?
Gwynn – How freakin’ cool would it be to send Bateman to Boston!!!! It would be more than a feeling just thinking about it.
Package him with Cruz, Mayfield and Salas and you’ve got yourself a deal ;O)
Fever—More than feeling? Boston? Pun intended?
Chance – I’m busted ;o)
We could send them Bateman, but they actually need Batman.
Matt Harvey is… >checks notes<
Available!
Gwynn – I’d rather have Steve Harvey …. but not Paul.
Now I know… the rest of the Story!
Paul Harvey would be my pick.
Pitching….starting MLB ready pitching that you pencil in 180 innings a year.
bum – Cease and King are gonna be free agents, who else are you thinking? Pivetta? ;O)
Never gonna happen.
Padres are a playoffs team with eyes on the World Series.
Why would they trade guys off their major league team
and mess that up?!
As a red Sox fan I’d rather restock the minors with a Duran trade. We have guys prospects but not at first or in the pitching department. No idea what San Diego has though
The Red Sox have an incredibly loaded deep farm system. They actually have a decent first base prospect that for some reason is still in AA. In the difficult hitting environment of the Eastern League this guy is slashing .320/.415/.513 and he’s playing excellent defense at first base. He’s also walking more than striking out. Blaze Jordan seems like the forgotten man but he’s healthy this year and he’s been really good. He needs to go to AAA I think he can help takes a professional at bat every time he’s up.
The Red Sox farm is loaded with arms as well. It’s unfortunate that Shane Drohan got injured again he was downright filthy to start the season but alas injured again. There’s nothing real exciting at AAA but below that the Red Sox are loaded with starter/reliever pitching. There are at least three guys that are ready to be in AAA and are future big league pitchers Early, Monegro, and Sandlin. In High A is where the big arms reside Tolle, Clark, Valera, and Rivera. There is also Luis Perales will figure into the mix with big time stuff but recovering from TJ surgery. There are other guys like Hayden Mullins and Blake Wehunt who can also be big leaguers. It’s just a loaded farm. I’m not labeling these guys as a 1-5 because they are still evolving. Connelly Early’s fastball velocity continues to tick up as he goes through the pitching lab. He’s sitting in that 93-95 right now that’s up from two to three miles per hour from last year. He starts sitting 95-97 with all his plus secondaries and he’s no longer a back of rotation arm he’s a middle rotation arm with a chance to more. A lot of these guys are in a similar boat their stuff continues to tick up making them hard to predict but they look like big league pitchers. There are a lot of guys like that in this system. A lot of pitching help is coming over the next three years at least and very probably a top arm or two will emerge.
I can’t see a scenario where Boston trades Duran. This article is pure speculation Duran isn’t going to be a free agent until 2029 his cost would be enormous if they traded him. Oh and for you guys that say blow it up and get prospects the Red Sox have a real rule 5 issues over the next three years at least, so likely it would just add to those problems if they traded away veterans for prospects. This is simply wishful thinking by a Padres beat writer Lin on the Athletic.
Bruin – Great post!
Yeah anytime I see the vague “league source” used, I am skeptical.
If the Red Sox plan to finally try to contend next year, they need Duran. He makes things happen at the top of the order. It’s a shame the bottom of the order is so crappy, not very many RBI opportunities for him.
It was actually announced yesterday that Blaze was being called up to AAA, but they had an off day yesterday so he hasn’t played there yet.
Also, I’m cautiously optimistic about him, but there’s a heavy emphasis on the cautious; he was in his third season at AA and finally put together a solid month there, although even in his third season he was still relatively young for the league.
How about trading some players from that incredibly deep farm system for some good major leaguers instead?
Mad – Hopefully the Red Sox plan to try to win next year, which means trading prospects this coming offseason.
No way they trade a guy with this talent level and control. Maybe for a high end starter with similar control.
I mean, they traded two top 100 prospects (Teel and Montgomery), plus Meidroth and Gonzalez for Crochet last offseason, so it’s not like they aren’t willing to move prospects for major leaguers who are going to help them win.
But who is giving up that kind of starter this year for an MLB outfielder?
Wade – I’d be fine with Duran and a lesser player (maybe Rafaela) for Skubal, contingent on the Sox signing him to an extension. That way the Tigers would still have the talent to contend and the Sox would have insurance in case Crochet blows out his elbow.
Wade – Tigers.
I don’t see that. Skubal is too valuable. How many years of control does he have?
Wade – Only one and a half years, if the Tigers can’t extend him this year he’s probably gonna get traded. The Sox could certainly add other players such as Bello, Houck, Burdi, etc.
Blaze Jordan was injured the last two seasons at Portland we are really seeing the first time in a few years the real Blaze Jordan. He played through a lot the last few years and it affected him. We are seeing the real Blaze Jordan now an excellent defensive first baseman that takes a professional at bat rarely strikes out and now is walking more than he’s striking out. It’s good to see him get his chance at AAA.
Mad I think they are going to have to trade from there farm for big league help. They should trade from their rule 5 guys to alleviate that problem and add some other arms. I think they will either at the deadline if they manage to be in it at the time or in the offseason.
That does sound more reasonable but at that point do the Red Sox need an ace for a year and a half more than an all star outfielder for 4? I guess outfield is more expendable for them. I would lean towards getting rid of Yoshida, Refsnyder or Rafaela for a more moderate return.
Sorry Bruin.
If you knew anything about Dennis Lin/Ken Rosenthals relationship with the padres org, you’d know they actually hate the team. Dennis actually lost most of his access after the Scherzer/Turner debacle years ago.
If Lin has any wishes, it’s for the padres to have a complete
implosion that he can write about.
Fact of the matter is, you have the #1 prospect in baseball, ready for the big leagues, and he needs big league at Bats. It does make a ton of sense to deal Duran, either to the padres or another team.
I agree with your analysis of the farm, but Anthony makes Duran redundant. The problem is finding a fit. Enough teams need a CF, but the teams looking to acquire one are unlikely to give up any current value.
mainesox 2
It was actually announced yesterday that Blaze
========================
I agree he has some talent, but last time I saw him, he looked like he was in horrible shape.
Wade – That’s why in my earlier post I specified the trade should be “contingent on an extension”. like it was with Pedro ;O)
vpsd – Interesting information on The Athletic, thank you!
But I disagree with your last sentence. No, it doesn’t make sense to trade one of the best leadoff hitters and outfielders in the game, who is only in his 20’s and is team controlled for more than 3 years, when you can simply move Rafaela to another position/role or demote him to AAA or trade him.
Duran should be available for a near soto-level haul, between 4 years control, and, a 6-war level player.
I notice the article left out last night’s performance by duran at the plate. Reality is, red sox line up is somewhat exposed/unprotected depressing a few guys numbers.
Blaze Jordan is not going to be anything in the majors. He toiled in AA for a while and only recently started hitting.
SD and NY gave hauls for soto…
Crochet
Been waiting for that moose since he was 13 hitting 500 ft bombs
Tang- Blaze Jordan has been injured quite a bit the last couple of years he never got it going when he did an injury would happen. He also had a well documented depression issue in 2023. He’s still only 22 and will be 22 all season. He’s now in AAA he’s defense at first is excellent he hasn’t made an error all season at first or even third which he also plays but he’s a top notch defender at first. He’s finally healthy this season and when healthy this is who I think he is. Portland is a very difficult hitting environment especially early in the season and he has been among the best hitters in the eastern league. He gives you a professional at bat, makes contact doesn’t strike out much and also big time power when goes after it. I think the best is yet to come for Blaze Jordan.
Bruin – Great post, I’m bullish on Blaze as well.
I know you follow the minors a lot so you can probably answer this question ….. is the defense and hitting approach in the minors the same as it is in Boston?
Do you see the same number of fielding and baserunning errors in the minors as we see with the Red Sox? Missing the cutoff man, throwing to the wrong base, etc?
And is the hitting approach in the minors the same one-size-fits-all aggressive uppercut approach that’s in Boston?
A very hungry wolf.
We’ll give you all the (Dom) Smiths.
Heaven Knows I’m Miserable Now, YBC!
More than the Padres have to part with.
“In a sport like baseball where like 80 percent of your prospects don’t work out in the first place, it is absolutely mind boggling how often ‘teams’ hoard prospects” – Jack O’Rourke.
I think it’s 99% FOMO and 1% POBO ego, web. Nobody wants to let loose the next Yordan, Tatis, Trout… Salas, De Vries, etc. That’s the thing that keeps GM up at night!
“There’s also the financial element to consider, as the Friars have clearly been operating with limited funds for years now.”
We need to monitor your website’s use of an old narrative…
I guess “financial limitations” is synonymous with “trying to stay out of the third CBT bracket”??? Tired narrative, regardless! Go Pads
Except for the LAD, and maybe the NYM, I’d bet most teams are monitoring the payroll.
The Mets are definitely monitoring the payroll. Other than Soto, Stearns Mets have done nothing extravagant.
Not sure what the heck you are talking about. The Mets have the 2nd largest payroll in baseball at $327 million and are over the 4th and highest threshold of the CBT, the so-called Cohen line.
READ!
Post something based in common sense and backed with information that shows you posted something worth reading in the first place! All caps just make you look dense.
I had issue with “for years now” when last year was the only year that could truly be financial constraints. 24 was clearly reset mode but still right up to the limit.
Its a bit of a lame comment to make saying for years now but prior to the last few years they have definitely been limited financially.
@King They had the 3rd highest payroll in MLB less than two years ago? What do you mean by last few years? Last year (2024)? That was the reset on the CBT. Dodgers did the same thing in 2023.
It’s amusing.
They have the 9th highest MLB payroll so far in 2025 if the Padres are broke narrative from mlbtr writers were true, 21 other teams are bankrupt beyond hope including the Redbirds!
I said prior to the last few years the Paddes have been limited financially. Thats what i said and that is true.
The Padres spent a ton for a few years and fans want to believe that’s the new normal but its not.
yeah, a while ago before the Seidler group took over they were a bottom payroll team. But that’s not very relevant today in an article that suggests the Padres are financially strapped now. It’s not to say they have endless $ to spend, we don’t know how high they’re willing to go after the 2024 CBT reset. But Duran is affordable in $, just not likely affordable in the prospects haul he would demand so I doubt the Padres work a deal..
The owner died. I would say that’s relevant. How could you ignore that???
Limited finances isn’t referring to total dollars spent, but rather the amount remaining to spend. A team with a $100MM payroll,but a budget of $160MM is not limited. A team with a $260MM payroll and a $270MM budget is limited. Its referring to how much capital a team has to play with.
The Padres increased spending. Only 3 teams increased spending more. Every team is limited in some respect. Tat means that the Padres were limited by a lower amount than nearly every other team. The narrative is a false one. Its also getting old.
It’s not that they’re broke it’s that they have limits on payroll in respect to LT tier implications.
The questions regarding the Padres payroll going forward are quite warranted.
1. They are operating with a brand new owner who was only approved by MLB in February.
2. There is currently a legal battle for ownership of the Padres (by previous owner’s widow)
3. The last owner stated that his reason for raising the team’s payroll was that he couldn’t take the money with him (had long been battling cancer and was in remission at the time)
4. Padres have the 9th highest payroll (Cot’s) while having the 19th largest market (among MLB teams).
At some point I expect a reckoning will come and the Padres will drop payroll to reflect their budgetary constraints, but I doubt it happens mid-season. Guessing that this coming off-season, or next, ownership will significantly pull back the reigns.
And the real issue with the Padres is all of the dead money they will have on their books, and the ages of the players they are locked into. They basically just frontloaded everything and maxed out their Amex. In 2028 they have $154 million already on the books, and all that will get them is Merrill, a 30 year old Tatis, and a bunch of dudes either washed up or not even playing any more.
@WCSoxFan
Those are all valid points/concerns, but don’t necessarily portend a “reckoning”.
1. Important to distinguish between media market and revenue market in MLB. The Pads are actually lower than 19th in media market. But they have the 2nd or 3rd highest attendance in MLB the last few years and their investments in building a downtown experience/revenue market has been a model for MLB. They are one of the MLB teams paying into revenue sharing.
2. The FO has said they are now at about the payroll they plan to remain at, which is lower than the payroll from 2023 (3rd in MLB), but still within the top 10 in the league. This is a long-term goal of the post-Peter Seidler ownership, which is a really a family group of the Seidlers.
3. Until we actually see a reckoning, and given that instead we are seeing them fully committed to a top 10 payroll, then why assume it’s all going to come crashing down? Is it because they are a small media market? That seems to be the driver of the narratives from writers. Or is the model they’ve achieved perhaps a good indicator that a small media market team can maintain high payroll and still profit?
Machado and bogaerts are both 33 this season. And they will be making a combined $51 m next year at age 34, then $65m a year through the end of 2033… for 8 years beyond this season.
That’s a reckoning their income stream cannot support long term while investing in other talent.
Tatis and Merill will ramp up by 2028 to total another $58m, although, young enough they’ll hopefully remain productive and injury free.
But you’re talking over 120m to four guys, only two of which are likely to remain productive, for the 6 seasons 2028-2033, where both Machado and Bogey will be 36 to 41 years old, respectively. And both debuted young, 19 & 20 years old respectively. That’s a lot of wear and tear on the body. Machado is signed for a 23 year playing career, Bogaerts 22 years… not many bodies can withstand that, especially demanding positions like the left side of the IF with all the running and diving
Payroll went UP above 2nd tier of CBT thresholds this season after dipping under the CBT threshold to reset the penalties. How could you ignore that???
Oh wait, your specialty is kpop, not baseball. I forgot that you have no clue about what is going on in baseball Joel.
Cleaver, nearly every team other than the Dodgers have limits on payroll.
After 3 seasons above the CBT threshold, the Padres dipped under for one season and then immediately raised payroll and went over the 2nd tier this season. They are right against the 3rd tier right now so depending on trades made at the deadline they could pass that level in 2025.
Most teams only dream of having “limitations” as high as those the Padres have.
It’s the same ownership group. That hasn’t changed. Only the control person with MLB has changed.
The legal battle decisions won’t change the focus on winning. Try reading and paying attention to what all the parties involved have said.
That is not what Peter Seidler said.
The Padres have the 5th highest CBT payroll at $269 million – legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/
Nothing else matters when discussing payroll.
The Padres ownership including the newest control person have said that they can and will continue to have this level of payroll. ALL parties involved have said it is sustainable. Your guess is wrong based on their statements.
Maybe next time try reading what the Padres ownership group has actually said before commenting. .
They blew past two CBT tiers this offseason and will blow past the third if they make any trades. It doesnt seem like the CBT was limiting them much of at all. I wish Henry operated like the Padres are doing right now. Don’t you?
“…for years now”. said the 2nd tier CBT in the rear view mirror? Maybe dog years? Fruit Fly years? or visa veeeesa, since 1969 or Joan Kroc pot?
And limit what Darragh and others on here are drinking.
Would be better as a Royal….I’m sure the Royals could put together a sweet package for him
would the royals give up Caglianone for him?
Umm no lol
No cags but royals have a ton of good young lefty pitching and high end catching prospects
You can’t be serious. MAYBE if Duran were hitting .310/.410/.550 or something.
They should. 3+ seasons from Duran is probably a higher WAR than Caglianone. Jac could be a 150-K DH. You need an awful lot of HRs to make him worth Duran.
Joe, just what the Sox need, another 150k strikeout machine who doesn’t get on the mound.
150K means almost nothing now a days a lot of good hitters will strike out that much, even Ohtani struck out 162x last year during a historic season. Duran K’d 160x so not sure why we’re even bringing up strike outs.
It’s a margin of error thing. Duran does everything. Jac does little but hit HRs. If his Ks spike by 10%, it’s a lot more damaging.
Duran is a solid player but Jac could be a real difference maker for the offense which is what KC needs. Duran is probably closers to that 2-3 WAR mark than the 8+bWAR or 6.7fWAR he posted last year. Jac has the chance to be a consistent 4+ WAR player if he lives up to his potential. Plus you’re getting 6 1/2 years of Jac and paying him peanuts the first 3 while Duran will be much more expensive his final arb. Years.
@ReyDay Duran put up 6.7 fWAR last year and 2.5 fWAR in half of a season (362 PA) in 2023 – he’s clearly better than a 2-3 WAR player. His WAR numbers are unfairly diminished by playing LF (defensive metrics are rough for Fenway’s LF especially) as he’s a quality CFer. In terms of his hitting he’s been consistent with a xwOBA of .319/.338/.321 over the past 3 seasons with randomness skewing the other numbers. Pretty clearly a 4+ win player, which is what you’re ‘hoping’ Jac turns into.
That said, the extra 3 years of control (Royals called him up a little early and will be a borderline super 2 case) is important, especially for a small market team.
My point being: you can make your case for not making this swap without unfairly diminishing Duran.
Rey, one or two ok. A team full of them? When the Sox were consistently good, the churned the line…
I never unfairly diminished him I said he’s a solid player and made my own opinion that he’s closer to a 2-3WAR player range. Is that not to say he can put up a season of 6+, but I think he’ll be closer to that 3 range than 4+ which I think Jac will be eventually.
I think a lot of ppl forget Duran is about to be 29 this year so I don’t see him being a 4+ guy when he’s 30 and 31 when speed starts to decrease a bit.
@ReyDay the problem is that your 2-3 WAR opinion has no bearing in past results or his peripherals. When discussing these things with others, unsubstantiated opinions hold no merit and only confuse the discussion. And if you’re saying a player is 2-3 WAR then you ARE saying that he can’t put up 6+ WAR, otherwise he would be a 2-7 WAR player and you are simply criticizing his floor, but that isn’t valid for this player.
There’s no sign of Duran showing his age but he will be 31 during the last year of control and it’s reasonable to worry that he may decline at that time.
just look at his peripherals on baseball savant, and how models on fangraphs project the rest of this season and the next few years.
There are much smarter people than us mlbtraderumors lurkers that get paid to do this for a reason.
KC one of the best fielding teams, they need offense and Duran away from Fenway could actually become a worse hitter in a weaker lineup that’s my point. If this theoretical trade happens you can’t take his Fenway/Boston numbers and automatically apply it to KC. And no I’m not saying he can’t put up a bigger WAR season than 3, I’m saying aside from anomaly season that’s where I see him as going forward a 2.5-3 WAR player per year on average. If a guy puts up a 7 WAR season and the next 5 years goes onto to put up 2.5-3 are you gonna call him a 7WAR player or a 2.5-3WAR guy typically ?
K are about the same. Would 3+ years of Duran be worth more than 6+ years of Caglionone?
Alternate headline “Padres interested in acquiring something for nothing.”
Get you kicks for free…
Shouldn’t that be every gm’s mantra?
Should they not be? If they can give up a little to get a lot.. we’ll isn’t that the GMs goal for every team?
yeah but that’s not a great way to maintain relationships
Basically it leads to your calls not getting returned.
Guys who always lowball you, you stop answering, as true with gms as real life.
As a hobby I deal in older cars and trucks, fixing as a hobby, selling parts, etc. And I’ll tell you, there’s cheap misers out there that nickle and dime you, or, always try to blow tiny flaws of no value up as making things worth half.
You learn who they are, then they get mad because you never answer their calls and refuse to deal with them. I’m sure gms share stories, every bit as much as those of us within niche hobbies for particular areas do.
Blacklists are a thing where if anyone will deal with a guy at all, they charge a pr*ck tax
It’s definitely a mental aversion for some. It reflects their insecurity. They’ve built their strategy this way to protect themselves against how they don’t want to be treated. Unfortunately, it is self-fulfilling. As with blacklists etc, it only reinforces what they think of the world.
GaSox – So very true! And it’s not a matter of just being annoying, it’s the old saying “Time is money” which means don’t waste your time on a difficult buyer when there’s other buyers you can move onto.
The few free agents the Sox have signed over the past 6 years were all blatant overpays ….that’s the only way they can attract players.
In big pools sure, Soup N*zi “NEXT” applies.
There probably is some form of smuck tax on the Red Sox free agents. But it could also be that Henry is cheap and would rather target “bargain” star free agents. Since 2011 it has been somewhat like that with acquiring free agents.
However fever, to a degree that may be changing with the young talent arriving.
I expect tough negotiations, and, opt outs and no trade clauses pushed for, but, slowly it’s becoming a more desirable destination.
Preller is certainly not a POBO that lowballs as the evidence of all of his trades clearly shows.
GaSox – There’s been no evidence yet of that changing.
Buehler was obviously an overpay, the Dodgers didn’t even want to risk him taking that same $21M with a QO.
Chapman is being paid a premium price.
Bregman couldn’t get the massive longterm contract he wanted, so he settled for the massive short term contract with opt-outs and of course the Cora & Buehler connections.
I understand the future *could* be bright if the Big Three rookies live up to expectations, but that won’t sway players to take less than or equivalent contract offers from the Red Sox. Especially when they haven’t even shown the ability to have a winning record since 2021.
GaSox – What are your thoughts on Cora automatically having Chapman pitch the 9th in tie games regardless of situation?
Tonight it was absolutely asinine bullpen management by Cora. After Whitlock cruised with a 14-pitch 8th inning I was literally screaming at the TV “Do NOT replace him with Chapman in the 9th if it’s still tied”.
But sure enough, that’s exactly what Cora did ….. knowing full well if the Sox didn’t win it in the bottom of the 9th, it would be 7.62 ERA Zack Kelly pitching the 10th with a ghost runner on 2nd base and facing the heart of the Angels lineup including Trout.
Rafaela made up for his horrendous 2-run throw by having a great night at the plate, so this loss falls squarely on Cora.
Cleveland – Yes Henry has been really cheap several years, especially 2020-2024, but it’s the front office that keeps pissing away money on high risk player comeback attempts. Did anyone really think Hendriks would return to form this year? Did anyone really think Paxton would stay healthy? Kluber? Story who came to the Sox with a known injury and several declining years in a row? The list goes on and on.
BTW – Deven Marrero nailed it tonight when he said the young players are not focusing on basic fundamentals because they are too pressured by management and the coaching staff to focus on analytics such as exit velo and launch angle. The fielding errors and baserunning errors prove that out.
Fever Pitch Guy — I don’t see Henry and the front office as separate. They may have different ways of doing things but the table is set by Henry. All those guys that’ve failed after signing here are an artifact of how Henry invests. He loves name brand and high risk. This isn’t a Breslow or Chaim origin, they are just the tools and mouthpiece to announce it to us.
Cleveland – My understanding is the total player payroll budget is set by Henry, but the CBO (Bloom & Breslow) decides how to spend it. Henry gets involved only with the mega contracts.
Boston easily was the most overrated team entering the season. So many young players with one or even zero good, full seasons under their belts. Starting pitchers with injury histories, basically an unproven bullpen.
The – Orioles and Rangers were also heavily overrated.
At least the Red Sox had a chance to win the division if everything broke right and they didn’t have morons running the team. They just couldn’t afford to have any injuries, but that’s exactly what happened.
@FPG – I would argue that the Red Sox had terrific depth of starting pitching, relief pitching, outfielders, designated hitter and middle infielders. Unfortunately they had no depth at 1b, 3b (after the Devers fiasco) or catcher (after trading Teel) – and that’s been killing them.
Poor in-game management and bad luck have been issues as well, but if Devers was playing 3rd, or Bregman were healthy or Casas were healthy (and hitting) it wouldn’t look so bad.
Giolito coming off big injury. Crochet faces or should face innings limit. Other young pitchers unproven. Even Chapman, who’s been steady, had question marks. Casas, even Duran, short or no track record. Sorry, disagree.
But I wouldn’t call them “morons.” FPG is a so-called Red Sox fan. Doubt he could do better.
Wc – I’d argue that while the Sox had depth at SP, they don’t have the top talent necessary to have a successful season.
Crochet has been great, I hope he stays healthy. But after him it’s Buehler, Giolito, Bello, and Fitts/Dobbins. I don’t trust any of those guys right now.
The starters are rarely pitching 5IP or more, which is like death by 1000 cuts.
The BP also wasn’t that deep. They were relying on Hendricks to healthy and pitch like his peak, Whitlock to get healthy and pitch like his peak, and hope that Slaten who was a rule 5 BP arm can continue his success. That’s not exactly a recipe for success.
WCS – Of course you’re right about Casas and Bregman, those have been key losses. And Lord knows the in-game management has been atrocious.
The high number of errors can be attributed in large part to so many guys playing out of their natural position, which points to not only poor managing but also lack of depth.
Guys like Buehler, Hendriks, Whitlock, Casas and Yoshida had a high injury risk when the season started. The lack of depth probably was at least partially because ownership didn’t plan to contend this year.
FPG – I don’t understand the notion that they “didn’t plan to contend this year”. Seen a few other people mentioning that and I don’t think they pony up to sign Bregman for the short term high AAV deal with options after each season if they didn’t plan on competing this year.
But my opinion on that is solely based on Bregman’s deal and I could be missing the big picture. Sure it’s technically a multi year deal but I don’t see them making that investment and pushing them into the luxury tax if they didn’t plan to contend this year.
Maybe the intent was to go just over and if they are out of it at the deadline, shed some salary.
@Joemo I agree that their starters lack (or at least haven’t shown) the upside we’d prefer, but that’s still solid depth considering the injuries and wouldn’t be an issue if the team was scoring more runs. Crawford should get his first rehab assignment this week and Houck hopefully won’t be far behind, with Sandoval still looking likely by the end of the year – so the depth has held (despite struggles of Wink and Criswell).
The 5 IP issue is more a result of Cora than the pitchers. He consistently pulls them at 4.2 even when they are having strong outings. Their starters (for the most part) haven’t been getting knocked out early and currently rank 10th in baseball in innings pitched.
The fact that the Red Sox had three legitimate candidates to be their setup man only speaks to the depth. And despite the ineffectiveness/injuries, along with the quick hooks by Cora, the bullpen has the 9th best ERA in baseball (Fangraphs had them ranked 9th coming into the season). So clearly they had the depth, and the depth has paid off.
That’s what I mean: dreaming. Pitchers like Houck, Crawford, Bayo, Slaten are far from proven, and the fact they are injured so early in their careers is quite concerning. The preseason hype around the Red Sox was unwarranted. Now, if these guys, Duran, Anthony, Abreu put 2-4 productive seasons together as a group, I’m sold. That’s a big if.
Fever, don’t forget that in some cases it was lose-lose. Take Giolito, whose signing i know you hated on day one.
But, nobody knew he wasn’t even going to start the season without going down. He triggered his player option @19m. I bet as a mutual option the sox decline and get a better candidate on the 26 man slot.
But, they’re stuck either eating 19m for nothing and dropping him, or, carrying him. Hendriks was a fair bet with a good track record to come back. We still don’t know because after that layoff, it takes months of regular work for guys to shake the rust.
Yoshida was known hurt before the season. He costs money, but, isn’t a block for space, yet.
I’m OK with buehler for what he is. I consider him overlap for whitlock/Bello.
Really, the problem is a philosophy with Henry not wanting to go long term on pitching. Remember the players are expensive speech? Where fans can’t expect to contend every year?
Henry wants to blow those short term high dollar deals off the books while looking at the kids. I expect more top tier FA pursuits in 26/27 as they know which kids pan out and what they’re working with
Joe – That comes from interviews with Kennedy last year when he responded to fan complaints by stating they aren’t going to push their chips in until the core of top prospects is settled in as productive starters with the Red Sox. When they are fully settled with plenty of MLB experience, specifically Campbell/Mayer/Anthony, only then will ownership switch into GFIN mode especially by acquiring truly good players at the trade deadline. So obviously the earliest that would happen is next year.
GaSox – Great post! I think there will always be unanswered questions, such as whether or not Story is truly done as a hitter. That will create a domino effect, if Story is kept at shortstop for the next 3 years, then Mayer can play 3B and Campbell can play 2B. But who knows.
One thing I do know, remember when we were puzzled as to why they didn’t trade any of the three outfielders during last offseason? Seems apparent they intended to keep Roman down all along.
Oh and what Henry said was actually worse than fans can’t contend ….. he accused fans of expecting a WS championship every year, which was quite patronizing considering nobody expects championships every year …. but we do expect a competitive team each year.
Notice how small market MLB teams are never overrated by the national sports media heading into a new season?
Generally the best things they will write/say is something to the effect that the team is pesky and they may be a playoff contender.
Boston and Toronto need a fire sale.
The Jays went 10 and 4 over the past couple weeks and they’re a half game out of the wildcard. It’s hard to see them selling.
Mule – York has a hatred of Toronto ….. which is interesting considering his handle is literally what the city of Toronto was called.
Get it done AJ! He’d fit in PERFECTLY.
De vries for duran would get it done i suppose
Tho i doubt sd would give up the next acuna/tatis/soto
I’m guessing he’s completely off the table. Salas may not be untouchable anymore though.
Nobody’s interested in salas anymore though
Fixed it for u
This is such ridiculous hyperbole. Yes his stock is down, but saying no one values him is just abjectly false.
He turned 19 yesterday and is around the same age as HS that are about to be drafted.
yes he has struggled with the bat, but is also being challenged against players several years older than him in AA, and reportedly already catches at an mlb level.
Catchers notoriously develop much slower than other positions. Francisco Alvarez is the only catcher in the last 10 years to play a full season at 21 or younger.
30th best prospect in the game whose defense is MLB ready at age 18. Everyone is interested in him. The Padres are not interested in trading him.
@soul
30th means nothing. Even #1 prospect doesnt always have great success in majors, let alone #30
Ye his D has been praised
But .200 last yr
.188 this yr
Redsox would never in a million yrs trade all star jarren who hit 21 hr with 34 sb last yr & led majors in doubles & triples for a teenager batting 188. They wouldnt trade jarren for 10 ethan salas’s let alone just 1
Thanks for pointing out so clearly that you have no clue WTF you are talking about.
Fatality… websoulsurfer wins!
If the Bosox still see winning this year Duran for King or Cease and Cronenworth..solves 1B. If the Sox are done with this year King and one of those 2 prospects for Duran and a 15-25 prospect. Pads reaching out so you gotta set the bar
You must be high af, the Padres, who are in a better position to go to the playoffs than Boston, would not trade anything from their starting rotation or lineup for Duran. The most they could get would be salas if they wear AJ down
dam – Agreed, and the Red Sox aren’t gonna trade Duran for an upcoming free agent …. they are not in GFIN mode, at all.
In fact they haven’t been in GFIN mode since 2018.
Yeah, Duran for Cease or King makes almost zero sense for either side
The Red Sox were in GFIN mode in the offseason as they traded their last two first round draft picks for Crochet. However, injuries to Bregman, Casas and pitchers may have changed their approach to being sellers.
Eh, he had two years of control left when they traded for him, so even ignoring the extension it was more like go for it soon mode. Still don’t see them being sellers unless they continue to slide in the standings through June, and if they ARE sellers there’s absolutely no sense in trading Duran for a 2 month rental starting pitcher.
I think Bregman was also a GFIN move. Agreed about Duran. They will only trade him for a very good return. I think they will continue to slide because I’m guesing the bullpen will be collapsing from exhaustion.
I absolutely love Duran for King….I would make that trade yesterday especially with Roman Anthony ready to come up.
bum – Why make that trade when you can sign him as a free agent in a few months???
Also Fever by trading for King, you remove the QO attachment. While that means a buying team doesn’t have to lose picks, it increases King’s marketability and eventually cost in dollars.
The Sox are hard pressed to make the playoffs this year (and even less likely without Duran) and King would be a rental. Meanwhile the Pads are competing and trading away King hurts their chances of doing that. I don’t see that trade happening from either side.
3.5 years of Duran for 0.5 years of King? No chance.
Right!
Fill one hole and open up a big one in their playoffs rotation?
Makes zero sense for Padres.
If they “still see winning this year” why on Earth would they trade Duran even if it’s for Bubba Chandler or Andrew Painter?
1-Anthony replaces Duran.
2-Chandler/Painter replaces almost everyone in the rotation.
Pretty straightforward.
Lmao trading a guy who put up more than 8 WAR last year and who they control though 2028 for someone who hasn’t even touched the majors yet. Next joke.
Pretty sure a majority on here will say it’s an outrage that Ornellas isn’t given a shot, or that Wade can’t be a fulltime LF.
“Budget issues” may have indirectly led to Sheets playing out of position and getting injured. He’s been a wonderfully productive hitter but best suited for DH/1B.
Take a look into Duran, nothing to lose!
Only way a deal for Duran happens is if the Padres trade trade some of their rising talent in the lower level of the minors.
C Ethan Salas and SS Leo Devries are “untouchable”.
Highly rated young Padres minor league starting pitchers like: Mayfield, Cruz or Bateman could get it done with another prospect.
The Padres are a playoffs team and need their major league pitching depth and position players to offset occasional injuries. S0, the Padres are not subtracting Cease or Cronenworth etc from their major league team in a trade for LF.
This seems likely, the Sox could potentially get salas but they would either have to add more or just really wear AJ down
No! The Padres have already refused to trade both Salas and De Vries and the all the many deals they have done over the past few years.
They have them penciled in @ C and SS for ’26 or early ’27.
Prolly more like ’28
SportsFan0000
C Ethan Salas and SS Leo Devries are “untouchable”.
======================
Is that because Salas is performing so badly that SD can’t get any value for him? Salas had a .599 OPS last year in A+, and .544 this year in AA (SSS).
This year Salas isn’t performing badly, he’s injured and hasn’t played.
Salas’ value on the market is purely based upon already demonstrated catching skills and yet to be demonstrated hitting. But he turned 19 yesterday.
Too young to write off, and too young to have a resume of proven abilities.
but too young to assume it’s as rosy as it was.
Ethan Salas , when healthy, has starred in the Arizona Fall league.
Drafted as the #1 International prospect @17 years old.
Starred in Arizona Fall league @ age 18 against players who were 3-4 years older than him.
Salas is already a major league catcher Defensively.
His hitting is catching up to his superior defensive skills.
youtube.com/watch?v=v7q2LLAepMw
FWIW, I don’t believe that there is any such thing as a “catching prospect”. I’ve seen so many of these guys bomb out.
Top 100 prospects make it in the majors as an average or 2.0 WAR player just 17% of the time. You can say that about all positions.
For top 20 prospects, which Salas was last season, its slightly higher. Like any prospect he has a 1 in 5 or so chance of making it to the majors and sticking as an average or above player.
Salas just turned 19 a few days ago. In the past 60 years you can count on the fingers of one hand the number of catchers that spent more than a cup of coffee in the majors before their age 21. The average age of a catcher’s MLB debut is more than a year older than any other position. They just take longer to develop.
USUALLY the development that is delayed is what catchers do behind the plate, not at it. As many in the game have said, Salas could be in the majors right now if that was all he had to do. I am betting he could still hit as well as Maldonado this season once the stress fracture in his back is healed.
Salas’s accumen is his pop-times, his arm, his quiet framing. Blocking isn’t there yet. The offense is still very much up in the air. It really is too early to count your chickens before they hatch. Just because the Padres have been aggressive with his placement doesn’t mean he’s earned those. There should be some concern the Padres are inflating his value so early.
Nobody is taking Crone’s contract.
Trading Duran would be stupid….. now trading Abreu to Padres makes sense.
Duran won’t get extended. He is older than the other outfielders. Abreu is a power hitter with gold on his glove with a lot of control. Duran is expendable unfortunately. His speed is very valuable and hopefully yields a decent return.
Kyle – You know the only reason Duran didn’t win a GG last year was because of Varsho ….. in fact Duran had 23 DRS last year compared to Abreu’s 16.
Varsho had 28, and those were the three top defensive outfielders in MLB last year.
Abreu is a platoon hitter. Can’t hit LHP. baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=abreu…
Cease, Arraez and Matsui to Boston for Duran, Fitts and Whitlock.
DanFan…. Phone hangs up from Red Sox side…. very quickly
Will throw in Bateman or Nett. How about Adam and take out Matsui?
No
😂😂 Boston laughs at this.
Why on Earth would the Red Sox want rentals like Cease or Arraez if they are trading Duran and those other dudes? And if you say they want to extend Cease or Arraez you’re getting muted.
In reality I think all of this Duran talk is nonsense. Don’t know if it is SD or Boston that is sh ad king the tree getting everyone riled up. These two teams do not match up well. And Boston is not ready to wave any surrender flags. And SD needs a LF since March.
If they are not ready to wave any surrender flags why trade a guy who put up 8.7 WAR last year and is controlled through 2028 even with no extension?
Exactly. Why? But to be fair he probably doesn’t post another season like that. But if Boston could get a top of the rotation pitcher with years of control, then maybe.
Boston is not going to trade him. This is probably some ruse from the SD FO to SD media telling the fan base, hey look we are trying. We made a call.
SD has the pieces, controllable and prospect, that Boston would be asking for to pry him loose. And expiring deals are not it. But would they is the question.
Honestly, next month, it wouldn’t be earth shattering to see a 3 way deal, where an AL club grabs cease or king, and, the prospects coming back are chosen by the red sox, then supplemented from the SD farm to round out a deal that gets SD an OFer.
But Mookie Betts. Even under a different FO, shows how a direct SD-BOS trade doesn’t line up well on *big* deals. They both seem to want the same goals in the trade, which, is incompatible.
SD can’t wait a month for a LF. They need one now. The offense is pathetic. In a month the could look at catcher and the rotation if Darvish is out for the balance.
LFGSD619
If they are not ready to wave any surrender flags why trade a guy who put up 8.7 WAR last year
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1-The 8.7 is probably an aberration.
2-But more importantly, they have three good ML outfielders, plus the top prospect in baseball, who also plays OF.
You mean the guy with a 86 OPS+ this year and a prospect who they won’t even call up?
LOL
When has a team EVER traded a guy in-season who has put up an 8+ WAR season before and made it to the WS that year? I’ll wait.
Just for fun, what do you predict Duran’s WAR to be this year?
2.5
“Here in 2025, his offense is down. He has just four home runs so far. His walk rate has also fallen from last year’s 7.3% to this year’s 5.7% mark”.
Very poor writing and effort put into these facts…. as Duran is actually ahead of most of his number this year versus last year….. It was not until June and July where he took off Offensively.
You are bending the truth. His numbers are down just because he started slow last year doesn’t change that.
Cooper is right though, it’s too early to say Duran is having a down year compared to last because technically through the first two months he has higher average and more HR than this point last season.. then he became elite in June for a few months before dropping off hard in September. Duran got hot the previous summer around the same time, so he seems like he’s just a notorious slower starter, like many ballplayers in this league.
So two bad months, 3 great months and a bad month? At his age and up and down history is still concerning. Certainly can’t just say he will have another 3 great months.
Of course they are…… Who wouldn’t be at the right price? Duran is a gifted player. Come on.
Seems like every trade rumor ever. We want your guy to improve our roster, BUT we don’t want to give up our top prospects because they are our future.
Why would San Diego need a shortstop of the future when Xander is signed until like 2053?
Because SS Devries was the top International prospect signed in that year. Because SS Devries has already jumped 2 levels in the minors and just turned 18 years old and has already hit for the cycle.
Because Devries could be starting for the Padres @ age 19 or 20 at the latest.
Because DeVries is a foundational building block with cost controlled for 6 years.
Because SS Devries is a]ready superior on both sides of the ball to Xander and cheaper too.
Xander could move to 2B or be traded to free up cash for LF, to sign King or another starter etc..
Who is going to trade for Xander’s contract at this point unless you attach at least two prospects along with him?
And no, Devries is not superior to Xander on EITHER side of the ball because he is not even a proven major league player and Xander is basically a borderline HOFer right now.
Teams have inquired about Xander numerous times.
Yes, Devries is the Padres future starting SS.
Yes, Salas is the future Padres starting catcher.
No Xander will not be playing SS for the Padres after DeVries is promoted to the majors in ’26.
Yeah good luck with that.
Borderline HOFer. You’re smoking what?
The man has 1740 hits and is only 32 and has another 8 and a half years under contract. Barring injury, he should eclipse 2500 easily and probably get 3000 hits. He is an automatic HOFer if that happens.
Prob doesn’t teach 3000 hits unless he returns to his old form or close soon. Contract length doesn’t mean much if he isn’t still playing 5 years from now.
lol no where close to being a hall of fame player. He might reach 2300 hits. Most of that contract will be on the bench or DL or released.
You type like a 13 year old girl, sportsfanoo
I dont see Boston as sellers. The Bregman injury hurt them but they gotta keep playing to win. I could see Duran being dealt but it would have to be a 3 team deal with the Padres and someone else who wants prospects.
The source is Dennis Lin from the Athletic with Bow Tie Bob as his boss. I find the Athletic and Bow Tie Bob as reliable as a used car salesman in Barstow.
Ha ha. The Athletic is probably the most respected source of online info in world sport.
Here’s a tip. They know stuff fans don’t.
That might’ve been true back when they were independent, before they were became part of The New York Times.
fopp – I totally agree The Athletic is one of the better baseball sites, but they are not a non-profit …. they will do what they can to make money.
Do the Red Sox have interest in Skubal? Of course they do, as does every other team that can afford him. Is that interest worthy of big headlines on The Athletic? No, not unless there’s more to the story that makes a trade seem possible.
That’s the problem with this Duran rumor, there is literally NOTHING more to the story than the Padres “have interest”.
One of the young nationals outfielders would be very easily possible once the regular starters come back from the IL. Lyle and Hassell could be had without waiting for the deadline
Not a chance. Mike Rizzo hangs up on the Padres or Red Sox the second they ask for either Lile or Hassell.
As much as I wish they were, the Nats aren’t in position to actually contend and trade cost controllable young players yet. The bullpen’s a mess, they need 1-2 SP cost controllable SP beyond 2025-26, and there isn’t a future 1B prospect anywhere close to making it to DC. There’s zero indication the Lerner family’s going to spend in free agency like Ted Lerner did (and lots of indication they won’t.) For example, somebody in the family objected to the Strasburg settlement, which soured the relationship with him and delayed his retirement. People who think this organizational rebuild’s going to be fast tracked by a Werth or Scherzer-type deal are grasping at straws.
At the time of the Soto deal Hassell was actually the guy who generated the most interest/buzz, not Wood. Injuries have delayed his development a bit, but Hassell’s still only 23. Lile was the Nats 2nd round pick in 2021.
Alex Call *isn’t* a young kid, he’s 30. He is what he is, a guy who will hit .240-.250/.340-.350/.360. Zero power and not much speed (only 18 career SB and negative DRS in both CF and LF.) That’s, at best, a 4th or 5th OF on a good team. If the Nats can find a trade partner, he should be gone at the deadline but they’ll probably end up keeping him too long, just like they did Lane Thomas.
Jacob Young is “only” 25, but he’s not a starting OF either. For a guy with *zero* power, he strikes out far too much and doesn’t walk. Even in his 2.8 WAR season last year, his OBP was only .316. His entire value is SB and defense. He’s a guy you either have to live with as permanently in the 9-hole in the lineup, or he’s 4th OF because of the low OBP, which is actually worse through 127 AB this year (.309) than it was in 2024. Even if Rizzo still considered Young a prospect, both Hassell and Lile are *far* better.
NavalHistorian
Not a chance. Mike Rizzo hangs up on the Padres or Red Sox the second they ask for either Lile or Hassell.
=======================
There’s a decent chance that neither Hassell nor Lile will be everyday starters.
There’s a “decent chance” Dylan Crews doesn’t become a long term everyday starter either. What’s your point?
My point was, and is, Rizzo’s *not* going to quickly trade Hassell and/or Lile in favor of starting Alex Call and Jacob Young in the OF. Neither of those two players are starting on a good team. If Crews, Hassell and Lile don’t develop, absent big $ free sgent signings ownership’s unlikely going to approve, the rebuild’s likely going to fail just like the White Sox last attempted rebuild failed.
If a GM calls and offers Rizzo a haul for Hassell and Lile of course he should listen. But that’s unlikely to happen. Most teams overvalue their own prospects, and Rizzo’s definitely got a track record of doing this with guys he drafted or acquired in a trade. The best example of this is Lane Thomas. Rizzo was one of the *very* few GMs who thought Lane Thomas was an everyday starter. Rizzo ultimately traded him a year too late and got less in return. Since the trade, Thomas has shown he’s not a good everyday OF. Rizzo’s probably going to do the same thing with Call.
If a GM calls and offers Rizzo a haul for Hassell and Lile
==========================
Not happening. Hassell stalled out after A+. Lile’s never been ranked.
You guys seem to have it backwards; Boston has no shortage of outfielders on both the Major League roster and in the farm system. It would be Breslow hanging up on any team calling trying to offer us more outfielders.
Padres are interested in any corner OF available on any of the MLB teams who is a two way, producing player and who won’t cost their top prospects
SS Le Devries or C Ethan Salas (UNTOUCHABLES).
Padres are also interested in Marlins LF Kyle Stowers who is a native of San Diego
Make a list of all the LFs who might be available and the Padres have inquired about all of them,.
New MLB Trade Rumors story every day about the various LFs the Padres have interest in
Just like all the usual 3B guys the Yankees are tracking on every MLB team.
The Padres don’t have the assets to trade. The Padres already said DeVries and Salas are off the table. The Red Sox could use Cease but that is a rent a player for someone with control. All the other Prospects are too far away from the majors.
Duran had a great year last year and has 4 more years of control. He is going to be bring a haul if they trade him They are at the point if they do deal him it is going to have to include a strong package of near major league ready players.
Until he got injured I could have seen the Red Sox swap Duran for Smith-Shawver and Waldrep.
If I had to make a bet who will end up with Duran:
1) Mariners, assuming they will move one of their young pitchers now that the Mariners are in the hunt.
2) Phillies offer up Painter and Crawford. Duran was a Dombrowski draft pick.when he was Sox GM.
3) I see people saying the Royals. Maybe a Pasquantino and Noah Cameron might get close.
1-The Mariners sit on their hands a lot.
2-DD is never giving up Painter unless his arm is permanently hurt.
3-Pasq + Cameron is way too weak.
The only one I think I would dispute is #2. Dombrowski did draft Duran and he has turned into a good major leaguer and the 4 more years of control. He has the team that is legitimate this year. I have never seen Dombrowski hold onto a prospect if the deal helps the big club.
Anything could happen, and Painter did have TJS. But he is one of the best minor league pitchers out there. I’d take him ahead of Bubba Chandler. And I’d trade Duran for Bubba in a heartbeat.
Duran’s numbers are down on both offense and defense and that is why he is expendable by the Red Sox.
Teams are not paying top dollar for the Doran who is playing this year.
Duran’s slugging % and OPS are down close to 100 points each.
He is 28 years old and already appears to be regressing?
A few prospects including one of their A ball or rookie league starters would be reasonable for Duran.
He has four years of control and is only 1 year removed from an All-Star season. With those facts if I am the Red Sox I hold onto him if people are throwing A ball scratch tickets at me.
No they could not use Cease if they are trading Duran. Cease is a R E N T A L.
Hmmmm. I see what Preller traded for Soto.
Red Sox should be interested.
Soto to the Padres was a highly criticized trade.
It will never happen again if Preller wants to keep his job in SD.
BuT mUh MiChAeL kInG, dYlAn CeAsE, rAnDy VaSqUeZ aNd JaCkSoN mErRiLl !
The ahzt manager Sox has watched as Fitts gives away the game.
Again the same ole thing I’ve been saying
It takes out a good starter on a roll
Leaves in a starter who has nothing
Useless piece of shzt
He needs to go
He’s a curse , will continue to be one until it’s gone F F S
The Angels scored 6 runs with the first 7 hitters. If you think any manager in the history of baseball is taking out a pitcher any earlier than the first 7 batters, I’m going to assume you’ve never watched a major league game.
Watched plenty of baseball for over 60 years
Never seen a manager with a curse as Cora has with pitching.
For that last 4 plus years it’s been the same ole thing Just sits there and watch a starter with nothing give up lots all while takes a starter out while on row
As for doing nothing. Must say as normal with Cora. Did you see any relief pitchers up during that lousy outing. Probably not.
I’m not defending Cora, just the idea that he should’ve pulled the SP sometime during the first 7 batters. Unless the SP was a one-inning opener (or injured), they will never get pulled that early. You’d have to have a RP warming up at the same time as the SP was warming up.
It’s okay to admit that.
RSox should be actively shopping Devers. Offers for Duran would have to be mega proposals
All the reasons that Boston wants to trade Devers are the same reasons other teams won’t offer fair value. (Actually, the offers will be fair, but Boston fans don’t think those reasons should affect his value.)
With Devers contact and unable to play any position but 1B, assuming he will agree, they won’t get a return.
He’s hitting too well to be traded. His salary relative to his age and production, is pretty good.
Yeah, this isn’t happening. Slow day.
Yup no chance boston moves thier 3rd best player behind devers and bregman who has 3+ years of control left lol you got all of us lol click click click…no question though that if duran was available there would be far better offers out there than whatever the padres would come up with
Slghckckblgmfx. Blah.
That makes about as much sense as anything you have posted.
I’ll speak for all Red Sox fans when I say I expect something very big and substantial for Mr. Duran if we were to trade him. He’s a great player and we can’t get Mookied in return for him (Connor Wong, Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs!). And you have to take Story and Yoshida too, just to humor us and to further de-Chaim the team.
“The Friars have been operating with limited funds for years’ ROFLMAO
You already know why I’m here.
I’m seeing lots of comments leaning more toward overvaluing duran. Seems so far that last year was a career year. Without the SLG he’s just a speedy OF w potential for decent avg and obp. I dont think he’s bringing back as much in a trade as some are thinking.
Even regressing his 2024 8.7 bWAR by *a lot* leaves you with a very valuable 3-5 WAR OFer / CFer in his prime age seasons, with a good arm, terrific bat speed, top 13 percentile exit velo, elite (29.1) sprint speed, excellent baserunning numbers.
With those attributes it also wouldn’t be a complete shock to see him put up another 5-7 bWAR season, and he has 3-2/3 controllable years remaining.
That’s an extremely valuable player. With the time left under team control he’d bring back significantly more, for example, than one year of Kyle Tucker brought the Astros.
Nobody views him nearly as the player Tucker is. War or no war Tucker is a much more coveted player.
Tucker is certainly a better player, but Duran had 4 years left coming into this season, while Tucker had only one year left. Duran is more valuable.
Padres will give up their top 5 prospects for him, then trade him by the All Star break.
As a Sox fan it’s sucks to say, he’s probably gone. He’s got a ton of value and we know they won’t sign him long term even though he is deserving. The Sox have an over crowded OF and this would Allow Anthony to finally get up to the big leagues. Breslow please just let do the right thing…..if you aren’t going to sign him long term get talent for him. Or some major league pitching. Good lord
He’ll be a free agent at 32 and his closest comps didn’t age all that well. It’s hard to see why the Red Sox should dig deep to sign him now for, say, his age 32 to 35 seasons.
If they want to keep him I can see offering to guarantee his arb years at the going rates and in return getting one FA year and a second FA year as a vesting option or, better, as a team option, getting Duran through 33 or 34 without betting big that he’ll keep hitting like he did in 2023-24 for the next five years. His current speed should mean he can at least handle a corner at 33.
But if he wants to bet on himself and that his OPS+ stays bt 120 and 130 until FA, more power to him. I don’t think it’s going to happen, and we may already be seeing decline, but if he wants to shoot for 5/125m or the like beginning when he’s 32, the Red Sox should wish him luck. The early to mid 30s are very dicey times for non-superstars, and it’s not as if he’s currently an elite CFer with that to fall back on.
The Padres wouldn’t part with anything the Red Sox would be interested in.
The Padres INCREASED payroll more than all except 3 other teams, but Darragh is still vomiting that BS about financial limitations. Seriously, what is wrong with you?
Denis Lin is regurgitating rumors from prior to the 2024 season and saying the Padres are interested now. I am quite sure that almost every team is interested in a player capable of putting up an 8.7 WAR and coming off his 2nd season in a row with an OP+ over 120. Only a handful of those in the game.
The question is what are the Red Sox asking for Duran. In the 2023-2024 offseason that was a pair of top 100 prospects. Its undoubtedly more now. Since Salas and De Vries are the Padres only top 100 prospects and neither are available in trade, what do you think they would have to give up to get him?
There is a huge difference between being interested and having the assets to make it happen.
How about Mitch Keller?
Every team should be interested in Duran. And Ohtani. And Soto. Doesn’t mean they’ll be traded.
Shocking, Shocking I tell ya!
Though trading Duran would clear a path to Boston for Roman Anthony it’s too soon to pull the trigger on such a deal unless the Red Sox would be getting something that can help the team right now (which is highly unlikely). I suppose it will be something to keep an eye on over the next couple of months though
The Padres are still paying Eric Hosmer $12 million in 2025, lol. Give him a glove and trot him out there.
When you have as many glaring problems as the Red Sox have to fix, is anyone really not expendable?
The Roman Anthony situation demands a starting outfielder goes. Two have bad contracts and very little trade value so we are stuck with them. The other two still hold value. So Abreu or Duran has to go if you want anything back in return to help somewhere needed while making room for the lefty prospect. It is that simple. If we can get any long term upgrades in the rotation or bullpen back, I pull the trigger if I am the Red Sox.
You don’t follow the Red Sox, do you?
Rafaela is on pace for the best season by a Red Sox CF in a generation as measured by WAR. Abreu is not far behind that. Duran, who is a notoriously slow starter is on pace for a 3+ WAR season which is well above average.
Anthony is a great prospect. He is not yet a great MLB player. All 3 of our OF today are very good, well above average major league players. Until the production of one of them falls tremendously, one of them gets hurt, or Anthony does much, much more with the bat in Woostah, hes not getting called up.
I do, since 1974, and have missed watching less games during that time than you have been alive most likely.
All you have said is this. The Red Sox have not produced or had a very good all-around center fielder in a generation. Due to that, Rafaela looks amazeballs. Burks, Ellsbury and Damon may disagree. Rafaela is a standout defensive player, and a mediocre hitter. He hits righty (on a team short on that), has defensive value. and some flexibility to play different positions. He isn’t being moved for those reasons, but also because he wouldn’t get a return with that contract. His discipline and ability to move runners is nearly nonexistent also, and scouts notice that.
Roman Anthony is the BEST (#1) prospect in all of baseball. Not second, not top 10, not top 100. #1. Every one of the outfielders mentioned is on our team through the next few years. Your plan is not bringing up Anthony (the number 1 prospect in the sport) because he blocked by Duran, Abreu, Yoshida, and Rafaela? On a team that is mediocre. We are planning on an injury to make room for Roman Anthony, BTW, and Yoshida when he is healthy?
Nothing in our outfield is not expendable on a mediocre team that needs pitching, defense, power, OBP, fundamentals, etc. You are taking this like I want to lose Duran or Abreu. I am saying one or both will have to go because they are left-handed hitters, because they have value in a trade to help elsewhere, because the other outfielders have nearly no trade value, and because they block our future (the future of the number 1 prospect in the game of baseball on planet earth, which is where the Red Sox play baseball).
The Padres don’t have any of that to trade.
The Padres have no prospects, international money, or talent on the team to trade? Interesting take. I have no idea if they are willing to, or need to with the Red Sox, but they certainly have the talent to pull off trades if they wanted to. I would think that since garbage teams regularly can find suitors for trades that far better teams could also, if they wanted.
The Padres don’t have any of that to trade.
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Every team has enough talent to land Duran. Trades are often about the near top-100 prospects that no one hears much about.
You are mistaken.
Rafaela is on pace for no such thing… He’s having a fine season, but he’s on pace for 3.1 WAR.
Duran put up 6.7 WAR last season playing more CF and LF, but even if you don’t want to count him because he also played a lot of LF, JBJ put up 5.5 WAR in 2016 with essentially the same skillset, Mookie put up 4.8 WAR in 2015 as a CF, Ellsbury average over 4 WAR per 150 games and arguably could have been MVP in 2011 with 9.5 WAR
He is sorta right. Rafaela has a 2.0 WAR in a third of a season is a 6.0 WAR season. baseball-reference.com/players/r/rafaece01.shtml
Fangraphs uses expected stats, not actual stats, to calculate WAR, so I ignore it for position players.
Duran started 89 games in CF last season, just over half. Not really a full time CF. Rafaela has started 53 of his 56 games in CF through yesterday.
If he maintains this pace, 6.0 WAR would be the best for a full time Red Sox CF since 2011 when Ellsbury had a 8.3 WAR. Not quite a generation, but 15 seasons. Bradley was close in 2016, but not quite at 5.5 WAR.
Most teams would like to have the “financial limitations” the a Padres had this season when they increased spending by $45 million, one of only a handful of teams that saw any increase. They are 6th in spending overall even though they are in a small market. Sometimes it makes you wonder when the writers keep using that tired line about a team that is outspending my Red Sox.
As far as trading for Duran, its not happening. The Padres don’t have the prospects they are willing to trade. So why write about it anyway. Doesn’t Dennis Lin have things to write about that are in the realm of possibility or did his bosses at the New York Times say “write more clickbait”?
The writer didn’t mention it, because he probably didn’t think of it, but the Padres are not REQUIRED to trade just prospects. They are allowed to trade a major league player that may instantly help us and is also controllable, or any variation of MLB player/prospects/international money/all of the above. With their so-called money restraints, they might be amenable to trading a contract for an elite right-handed bat that costs a lot of money to free up that position for a prospect, upgrade their outfield, and alleviate their budget? Just a thought.
Personally, I don’t think it happens either. Just pointing out the why’s.
Maybe not “required.” But they are trying to contend this year so they would probably not “want” to trade anyone who is currently helping them win games.
Anyway, like I said elsewhere, if the Red Sox were to trade Duran, they would exclusively want guys who are controlled through at least 2029 in return.
@websoulsurfer Veeerrrrryyyyyy interesting for someone who claims to be an Angels fan to care that much about the Padres 😉
William, the Padres are in the playoffs as of today. They are not trading players off the major league roster. That is really asinine to suggest that they would.
Do you really think a team that is that loaded and looking to make the playoffs is going to trade from their major league roster?
They have the 5th largest payroll and were one of only a few that actually increased their payroll. They obviously have no need to, as you put it, alleviate their budget.
You should have refrained from commenting. Nothing you said helped your cause in the least.
The last half of your last sentence is the most likely scenario. The Athletic has become clickbait central since NYT took over.
I had a subscription from day one and it only took a few months after NYT bought them to cancel it. The change in the quality of writing was apparent, immediate, and made their articles not worth paying for. I still read them when it’s about the Padres but use library access to read for free now.
Let’s see where Boston is July 1st. Return compensation is key but it’s too early to be throwing in the towel.
Personally, I didn’t think this team had a shot of making the playoffs this year, but that is me. I just saw so little upside in our pitching, and bottom half of the lineup. I can see how others may want to hold out and see how close this team, as constructed, can make it towards missing the playoffs again.
There really is no rush to sell (I agree completely), but there is also no point in not pulling the trigger on a good deal if it helps towards 2026 and beyond. Remember, even if this team somehow pulls a rabbit out of its hat and plays well above what they are right now, they still don’t have the rotation, bullpen, or hitting to make a run in the playoffs playing against much better teams.
It’s hard to see this trade happening because the Red Sox would likely want DeVries. Padres aren’t likely to trade him. Perhaps with his slow start his value is down but still hard to see a deal. Though this is Preller who wanted Duran a year ago and gets fixated on players.
Plus usually by the time you hear about a Preller deal it’s after it’s gone no where. Except perhaps the Soto to Yankees deal.
Simm – Red Sox are all set at shortstop for the longterm, they’ve got multiple guys who can take over after Story is gone.
Sox would more likely want Salas (catcher) and Mayfield, Cruz and Bateman (all pitchers).
It’s the pitching where the Sox really fall short. Look at yesterday’s game, they are so thin at pitching they had Fitts making a rehab start against the Angels and he got rocked for 6 runs in the first inning.
I don’t think the RS will be caught up in De Vries. They have Mayer (even though I think he’ll move to 3rd) and Arias, who isn’t that much behind De Vries.
I think if they are looking for pitching it’s going to be MLB ready pitching, once they graduate Campbell, Mayer, and Anthony, the majority of their top 20 prospects are going to be pitchers.
If it isn’t MLB ready pitching, or maybe and MLB ready 1B, they are just going to look for the best value possible regardless of position.
HUGE difference between the #3 prospect in baseball and the #57 prospect.
You are right that the Red Sox likely would not be gunning for De Vries in a trade which is good because the Padres are more likely to trade Tatis than De Vries. Meaning less than zero chance.
Slow start? He hit for the cycle and moved up to the #3 prospect.
I get they want pitching and if it’s starters then they likely can find one in a different org. As far as DeVries the padres aren’t going to trade him but the Sox would take him SS or not. SS can play everywhere on the field except pitcher and catcher.
Perhaps they would do salas and a some arms. Padres have a lot of Pen arms and a some starters but the starters aren’t gong to be highly ranked on prospect lists. Padres struggle vs lefties so I think they are better off getting a right handed bat for LF. Merrill, Arraez, Cronenworth and Sheets are playing everyday. Guess they could platoon sheets vs lefties then use play OMG in the field allowing them to rotate the DH spot some. With Duran they still would have 4 starters vs lefty/lefty which isn’t great.
Sinking more. I’m thinking 15-16 games out in the East and 10 games back in the WC hunt.
Still not worth trading Duran.
I do not like the idea of trading the one spark about our team. But, if we must, why not Dylan Cease?
Cease will be a free agent. The only reason to make that trade would have to be if an extension could be made and reached as a consequence. Short of that, you would be trading Duran to trade Cease at the deadline anyway.
Padres would take that trade though. They get a controllable outfielder, shed a pitcher they will most likely lose to free agency and save payroll.
Just a personal opinion but I love Cease as a number 3 on a good pitching staff. On the Sox he is the clear number 2, and that means the rotation still isn’t cutting it for this year with him. The Sox don’t do it without the extension and a plan to sign a number 2 pitcher to push our existing 2-5 starters to the 4/5 slots, bullpen to help there, or off the team.
Agreed. I wouldn’t do it without the extension but Cease is a solid pitcher
If you aren’t willing to trade for Cease without an extension just don’t trade for him at all and wait until the offseason to make your pitch. He’s a Boras client anyway.
Agreed, and this close to free agency I doubt Cease signs an extension
No, Padres would not do that trade since they need Cease for the playoffs.
That ship has sailed.
My memory’s a little bad. How did Cease do in the playoffs last year?
Well for starters because he’s a rental and you guys have the ability to sign him away from SD in the offseason and keep Duran. Or trade him to someone else for someone(s) who aren’t rentals.
The Padres should weigh whether his 2025 decline in power and defense, combined with potential mental health challenges, justifies the trade cost. I wouldn’t pay too much for his flailing bat and significant decline in defensive metrics.
Jordan Walker from STL would be a great candidate to buy low with a high ceiling.. He is an ideal “Change of scenery” player.
Not happening. Lin is a hack. SD doesn’t match up well with Boston. Boston would want a significant major league piece now. Arraez doesn’t cut it.. Need a top RH power bat or a key SP. Sox aren’t moving him unless they get blown away and thats not happening.
Cease (if extension is in place) and Suarez for Duran who says no
When AJ Preller got of t he floor and stopped laughing
then there would be a loud click on the line.
Red Sox. They’d rather just wait until the offseason, sign Cease away from the Padres, keep Duran and laugh about it.
Any scenario begins with the premise that the Padres are looking to upgrade the existing team to make a run in the playoffs. When you think about it that way you can understand why the return for Duran isn’t going to be their big bats, starters, or bullpen cogs unless making the playoffs isn’t going to happen. I pointed out earlier they have everything it takes to make a HUGE splash for any player that is offered around the league, it just wouldn’t make sense for them under most scenarios.
And if the Red Sox trade Duran they will exclusively want players who are controlled through at least 2029 in return.
Padres.
Going into the season with that group for LF how could you expect it to be any different?
They could trade Cease for a productive LF and perhaps more.
Who is trading a productive LF with control AND more for a 2-3 month rental?
I see them wanting Duran because he the cheapest of the Sox to pluck. But he is the work ethics leader in that clubhouse I don’t see that being anyone’s equation. They aren’t selling him. He is marketing at this point. If anyone Rafaella if they can’t move Yoshida. Who at this point Miami should just take to avoid penalties.
Yoshida is untradable without taking on another equally bad contract in return. I cannot think of any team that wants a bad outfielder with not much reliable power to be their DH for that much money. He stays put.
Rafaela is a nice defensive pickup with versatility for a lot of contenders, but that contract just doesn’t justify getting him. That may change eventually if he ever hits and can move runners, but not now, and teams are going to be looking at him RIGHT NOW, in any trade. He stays put.
Ref is a nice 4th guy for a lot of teams, but the return would be so low you may as well keep him as insurance. He stays put.
Duran and Abreu would hurt the most, but that is because they are the two with value. They are controllable players that add defense, offense, and Duran adds speed for teams that are missing a piece in the outfield.
I just ask myself this question. If we aren’t very good with both of them, are we that much worse off with one being replaced by the best prospect in baseball?
If this was a good team, I would argue keeping the outfield intact for the playoff run and leaving Anthony down makes sense, but this isn’t a good team. Both players will still be here next year anyway to block Anthony. So, the exact same problem remains, and you are going to end up having to move one or both eventually to solve the problem (Yoshida/Anthony), or trade that number one prospect. The alternative is finding buyers for Yoshida and Rafaela, or have Rafaela being paid like a starter to be a utility guy.
It really isn’t that hard of a call. It just requires decisiveness and finding willing suitors.
William – At this point the spark that Roman would provide will be meaningless. They look more like sellers right now than they have since 2020.
As for Rafaela, this 7-game hot streak if it continues for a month or more could finally make him tradeable. Of course that’s a big if, his constant aggressive uppercut swing approach doesn’t play against the quality pitching he will be seeing the next 2 months. The easy part of the schedule ends today.
Interestingly for the first time the camera zoomed in on Cora chewing out Rafaela for that boneheaded 2-run throw. Good to see finally.
Tis the season for BS trade speculation, but Lin should know better than to angle this as an active situation. Journalists need some accountability even in sports. What a scrub move by Lin.
Cease, Bogearts half contract and him, Ethan Salas, Leo Devries for Jarren Durran and Rafael Devers
Think about this logically for a second. Why on Earth would the Red Sox want Cease the rental if they are trading Duran and Devers? And why would the Padres include him if he doesn’t move the needle in a trade?
It’s a thought. Devers is being difficult changing positions; he’d be a gone headaches, whereas Bogearts is willing to move wherever you need him. Just a thought.
And if the Red Sox are trading Duran they have no use for Dylan Cease. Because he’s a rental.
Anthony, Mayer, Duran for: Cronenworth, Waldron, Campusano, Humberto Cruz
One “homer” trade for another…
i’d be shocked if he’s traded but in theory whenever a young player puts up what is likely to be a career year (durran is great but imo it’s unlikely he will ever have another 9 war season) there is a window to “sell sky high”
We are also interested in Aaron Judge, just to be clear.
Duran has over 3 years of control and is one of the their only legitimate bats . In my opinion trade him and what, continue this rebuild for another few years? They need a new coaching staff a legit president of opps .
If the BoSox want a pitcher, they should check in with the Reds. The Reds need a bat, plus have minor league goodies.
An anonymous “league source” says San Diego is interested in Duran. Everything else here is publicly known.
I don’t really doubt there’s interest from San Diego. The real question is who leaked and what’s their agenda? I don’t see a reason the Friars would float this publicly. The Red Sox seem like a more likely source for the rumor, as a trial balloon or to set the stage. Getting a feel for public reaction or introducing fans to the idea the Sox might be sellers.
Duran might not be moved. If he is, he might not go to San Diego. But I suspect the Sox are expecting to be sellers, and interested in moving Duran if the return is right.