Thus far, MLBTR's Deadline Outlook series has focused on teams that have a clear buy or sell direction. The Orioles are certainly trending towards the latter but are arguably the first semi-bubble team that we'll cover. Barring a monster July, they'll have no choice but to sell at least some short-term pieces. They've got a number of players who'll draw interest.
Record: 34-46 (2.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Sell Mode
Impending Free Agents: Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano, Gary Sánchez
Baltimore has eight impending free agents, seven of whom have some level of trade value. O'Hearn has slumped this month but still carries a robust .301/.384/.485 line. It's his third consecutive above-average season, and he's playing on an affordable $8MM salary. The Mariners, Giants, Reds, Rangers and Royals could all make sense. Mullins had a monster April but hasn't hit over the last two months. He's nevertheless alongside Luis Robert Jr. as the most obvious trade candidates at a weak position. The Mets, Phillies, Guardians, Royals, Padres and Braves are among teams that could use a center fielder or could target Mullins with an eye towards playing him in a corner.
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I’d like to extend Domínguez. He’s really found it again. Trade all the rest of the value is there.
If it’s not nailed down, get it gone. I’d even trade Adley if the price was right. I feel Henderson will command so much money they can’t keep Adley AND Gunnar.
TRADE Mullins, Dominguez, Urias and Sanchez
Extend O’Hearn and Westburg
bring up Basallo, Carlton and Selby
TRADE Mullins, Dominguez, Urias and Sanchez
Extend O’Hearn and Westburg
bring up Basallo, O’Neill, Carlton and Selby
Activate Rutschman and Mountcastle
With how often Westburg is getting hurt, they have to keep Urias. But they should trade all impending FA. They can always re-sign O’Hearn but I am concerned he would want 3 years and 15+ and that’s not worth it for a DH.
Sell the rental pieces and prepare for a better offseason to be competitive in 2026!
They will be a team that sells at the deadline and is better after they do.
The Mets will take Mullins only if it’s not going to cost a high prospect lol
A couple of lottery picks ought to do it
I have always like Mullins but I don’t see this as a priority for The Mets. 3rd base, DH, Catcher, and 2B ( when McNeil is playing OF) are producing far less then desired. They should upgrade one of those first.
Ramon Urias would be much more useful for the Mets than a third centerfielder with a subpar bat. Mullins doesn’t hit much anymore.
Urias and Dominguez for Tidwell
Serrano
Lambert
Tidwell and Serrano for Mullins and Akin
No mystery here they will be big time sellers, unless ownership stops ME.
Starting pitching is always in demand so they should receive varying degrees of interest/offers for Eflin/Morton/Sugano.
Mullins is interesting because he could be the LH bat a team like Astros are looking for
Morton is 41 with an era pushing 6 and Eflin is right behind him.
They aren’t getting anything.
Morton will get something useful. SPs are not plentiful.
Same with Sugano. Lately he’s been lit more than a Snoop blunt.
very little if any trade value for Sugano
Trade all eight for young pitching. Simple as that.
Hoping the Mariners make a play for Ryan O’hearn.
The Orioles, as they usually have done, went in trusting too much in what they had and took half-measures to address the issues. They knew Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, and Grayson Rodriguez all had arm problems last year. They knew they weren’t going to re-sign Burnes. But, having a pitcher like Burnes on the staff shows you what this team can do when it actually has some pitching. So what do they do? Go out and get an elderly Morton, get a an injury prone lefty reliever in Kitteridge, and go out and get a mid tier Japanese import in Sugano (who has been decent until recently) and spent about $12 mil/yr on each one of them.
They lose Santander and replace him with injury prone O’Neill who has done jack all for this team, and they spent a pretty penny on him, too.
Mullins has been pretty terrible and has injury problems in each of the last couple of seasons. He’s barely hitting over .200 and his numbers only look good because he’s managed to hit some homers. Time to move on. They should have traded Mountcastle a couple of years ago when he still had value. I never liked him as a prospect or as a player.
They need to trade everyone that gets some interest and pare down these useless, overpriced half measures and seriously retool this team. Go out and GET AN ACE to anchor this rotation around. Don’t you dare bet on a good and healthy run of games from Bradish, Rodriguez, or Wells. Don’t bet on your young arms you are brining up and are getting crushed right now.
I believe this team has enough in house offense to compete, especially when a couple of other hitters from the minors arrive like Basello.
SPEND ON SOME STARTING PITCHING, then add on some complimentary pieces.
Santander signed for 5 years and $92.5m (aav 18.5), while O’Neill was signed for 3 years and $49.5m (aav 16.5).
both are injured and have been ineffective thus far. At least Baltimore is on the hook for less money and fewer years.
And with Burnes, sometimes the best move is the one you whiff on. He won’t be available until late next year after you could potentially be out of any contention.
I didn’t say they should sign Burnes, he was never going to sign here anyway.
I said they didn’t do enough to bolster the rotation because they already thought they had enough in house to get them by. They were wrong, again, like they always are when they bank on their own starters.
Wrong. The Os knew this was not their year with Bradish and Wells out Means gone so they smartly didn’t go for it. They had enough pieces to be a wild card but a near historic number of injuries killed that. Do I really need to list them all for you?
At various times, Henderson – their best player missed – not coincidentally their worst month, Wedtburg, the heart and sole of their lineup, Mountcastle, ONeil, Laureano, Mateo, Cowser – probably their fourth best player for most of the first half and now Adley.
On the pitching side, Eflin missed time, Suarez gone, Kittridge most of the year, now Povich. Not all these guys are equally important but no team could withstand that.
Add to that the worst stretch of Morton’s career, Felix had to be eased in and Gibson was rushed in with no spring training.
Yes some guys have disappointed – namely Kjerstad who I believe has lingering effects of being beaned by the Yankees – what else explains a guy that had a 1000 ops in AAA now can’t hit even there.
The only guys that will bring any value at all are OHearn and maybe Morton and a reliever but not sure it’s worth it. I think OHearn is a keeper and it would be hard to upgrade Dominguez as a number 3 or 4 reliever.
Bradish and Wells will hopefully get August and September to tune up for next year and then the Rubinstein and Elias can be more aggressive next off season filling some holes.
Fans understandably ignore the business side, but this was not the year to go big. That said this is basically the team that won 101 games but they need some updates.
I am not wrong, you are essentially agreeing with everything I said.
They thought they had enough pitching (even though 3/5 of the rotation was coming off of arm injuries) and spent unwisely on “bargain” replacements.
Why is O’Hearn a keeper? He’s on the wrong side of 30, he is a splits player only, and he really only plays 1B/DH and will pretend to be a corner OFer from time to time, and he’s only going to get worse out there as he ages. Right now the O’s have two players that could start taking over 1B in the near future depending on how they progress. Coby Mayo, and Bassello while the O’s still have Rutschman.
I am not ignoring the business side, I am addressing it. The Orioles spent unwisely this off season. Most of the signings they have made have been abysmal. Lureano is doing much better than I thought he would, Sanches is working out as a backup catcher, and they are getting some decent return on Carlson. Kitteridge is a little too soon to tell.
It is time to get serious with this window of opportunity. Stop getting these stop gap bandaids, and get some real pitchers in house. That is the only way you win in this sport. Pitching, pitching, pitching.
And? I didn’t say they should have signed Santander.
They are currently paying O’Neill a lot of money to do nothing but sit on the IL.
Elias has done so well with 30s and 40s picks: Henderson, Westburg, Norby, + Beavers 880 ops in AAA, only two duds. Why would he trade Mullins or o’hearn when he can get comp picks. Very possibly can also get one for eflin if he recovers from injuries in 2nd half. He won’t get offered more than the avg value of those 6 picks (even scaling down outlier Gunnar to just v good)
You don’t really know what the market is for these players. You have to weigh the option of getting a useful player from another team that can help you right now, or to gamble on a pick that won’t be ready to help you for another 3-4 years, if they pan out.
Henderson and Westburg are pretty good, but they are having down years and Gunnar isn’t exactly a gold glover at SS. Norby hasn’t really hit much, not that he’s been given much of a chance. All the more reason to trade O’Hearn if you can get something for him. This season is done. Let Norby get the extended atbats he deserves and see if he actually is a building block moving forwards.
You also have to be careful. Don’t you have to offer a QO in order to get a pick if that player signs elsewhere? Somebody might pull a Wieters and actually accept the QO and really throw a monkey wrench in your plans.
Well, he traded both Mullins and O’Hearn, as I suspected he would.
Norby is currently flopping in MIA, but Stowers was raking before his injury that might keep him out most of the rest of the season.
Ed, you really circled back on that one. I never meant to imply that ME SHOULD shoot for a QO comp pick on those bubble guys, I just guessed that he thinks so highly of his skill that he WOULD want a pick. Then two of them flopped out hard. O’hearn was still marginal but Elias threw in the towel.
Hope next year doesn’t repeat the issue w Rogers.
Mullins was going to get traded no matter how well he did this season unless the team was going to make the post season. He hasn’t been anything close to the break out season hitter, his defense is sliding, and he’s entering his 30’s, and about to get much more expensive. Time to cut bait. It was the same thing with O’Hearn. He’s a good player for the price the O’s had him for, but he’s going to get a raise into the $10 million + range, and that’s full time player price.
obsessed will trade Mullins, Dominguez and Sanchez at the deadline and be replaced by Carlton, Shrowd and activate Adley
Norby was traded, prob an avgish 2b.
Agree mkt will develop how it will, plus all are low end QOs and therefore some risk, but my point is that trades for all 3 are nobrainers for other teams but ME track record makes him do math different