Astros Notes: Peña, Matthews, Smith

The Astros placed star shortstop Jeremy Peña on the injured list due to a fractured rib, leaving them without their team’s most valuable player for at least a period of 10 days. A firm timetable for Peña’s return wasn’t provided by the team, and based on general manager Dana Brown’s comments regarding the injury, it sounds as though the club is taking an optimistic approach but doesn’t have a concrete idea of just how long he’ll be sidelined.

Via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, Brown called Peña’s injury a “pain tolerance thing” and left a rather open-ended window when discussing his shortstop’s potential return date. “If he feels like he’s fine after a week, we’ll start some baseball activity,” said Brown. “We can give him some things to do, and he might be able to play through it as it heals.”

Brown noted that there’s still a good bit of inflammation at the site of the fracture, but if that clears up in a timely manner, it’s possible Peña could return “soon after the 10 days” — provided he can tolerate the discomfort. Of course, there are plenty of factors to consider. Swinging with a fractured rib would presumably impact Peña’s productivity at the plate, and the prospect of him laying out for a grounder at shortstop or taking another errant pitch off the ribs could exacerbate the matter. There’s also no telling when the inflammation will calm down and he’ll feel well enough to swing; Peña was originally plunked on Friday night and missed the next two games due to ongoing pain before follow-up MRI and CT scans revealed a fracture that initial x-rays failed to detect.

Now that Peña is out for at least a short spell, Leah Vann of Chron.com argues that the Astros ought to take their first big league look at 2023 first-rounder Brice Matthews. With utilityman Mauricio Dubón likely to slide over to shortstop, an already weak point in the lineup (second base) could become that much more compromised. Matthews has played 52 of his 67 games this season at second base and turned in a robust .285/.403/.492 batting line (135 wRC+) in 298 Triple-A plate appearances.

Houston doesn’t need to protect Matthews from the Rule 5 Draft before the 2026-27 offseason. Selecting him to the 40-man roster more than a year prior to that point runs the risk of prematurely burning through some of his option years. However, given his production at the top minor league level, Matthews is making a clear case for a promotion, and if the Astros are confident he’s going to be in the majors for the long haul anyway, concern over those option years would be rendered moot. It’s possible Houston trades for a veteran second baseman, but talks along those lines — not just for the Astros but for the whole league — probably won’t pick up in earnest until later this month.

With both Peña and Yordan Alvarez sidelined, Houston’s lineup is missing two of its most talented hitters. They’ll need to rely more heavily on the rest of the bats for the time being, including touted rookie Cam Smith. Smith has been on absolute fire at the plate lately, slashing .367/.433/.617 over his past 16 games. As he’s heated up, he’s also climbed the batting order. Smith was batting seventh, eighth and ninth for much of May but has been plugged into the fourth or fifth spot in the lineup each game since June 19.

The Astros are bullish on Smith’s ability to be a fixture in their long-term lineup, of course, and the manner in which he’s taken to right field from a defensive standpoint only bolsters that optimism. A former third baseman, Smith is learning right field on the fly, but Brown said on the Astros’ pregame radio show this week that even dating back to the draft, he believed Smith would benefit from a move off third base and into the outfield.

“I didn’t feel like, as a scout evaluating him, that he was going to be this piece at third base,” Brown said (via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Brown personally scouted Smith on multiple occasions despite knowing he had no real chance to fall all the way to the Astros at No. 28. Those in-person looks paid off when the Kyle Tucker trade discussions began with the Cubs, however, and once the Astros pried Smith loose, Brown recalled advising his staff: “I don’t feel we took this guy for him to play third base, my vision for him is right field.”

Smith has taken to right field like a duck to water. He’s made just two errors in 597 innings at the position while generating a whopping +9 Defensive Runs Saved and +4 Outs Above Average. Statcast pegs Smith’s range in the 91st percentile of big league outfielders and credits him with 82nd-percentile arm strength. There’s still some learning to do when it comes to throwing, as Statcast actually grades his throwing as a negative despite that plus arm strength — likely a reflection of Smith still honing his accuracy on those lengthier throws and on developing instincts for hitting the cutoff man, throwing to the proper base, etc. For a converted infielder, however, the plus range, sure hands and strong arm set the foundation for a Gold Glove ceiling.

Unsurprisingly, Rome suggests that Smith’s long-term home is in right field and that there’s no infield return planned. With Isaac Paredes hitting well and controlled two more seasons beyond the current campaign, that seemed like a given anyhow, but Brown’s comments only further reinforce that long-term outlook for Smith.