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Jeremy Pena

Astros, Twins Reportedly Discussed Christian Walker In Carlos Correa Trade

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5:17PM: Nightengale clarified his earlier report, saying that it was the Twins who first floated Walker’s name and the Astros who passed on moving the first baseman.

2:56PM: The Astros and Twins pulled off a shocking move in the final hours before the deadline that brought three-time All-Star infielder Carlos Correa back home to the team that he spent the first seven seasons of his career with. The deal sent Correa to Houston in exchange for pitching prospect Matt Mikulski, with the Twins retaining $33MM of the $103.4MM remaining on Correa’s contract. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provided additional details on the Correa negotiations this morning.

Most notably, Nightengale writes that the sides talked about including veteran first baseman Christian Walker as part of the return headed to Minnesota in exchange for Correa’s services. He adds that while the Twins “had the opportunity” to acquire Walker as part of the deal, they passed on taking the final two years and $40MM of his contract on. That’s not exactly a shocking decision. Given that Mikulski is a 26-year-old who has not yet even reached the Double-A level, it’s fair to view the Correa deal as a pure salary dump for Minnesota. Previous reporting has indicated that the Twins are more than $400MM in debt, and Nightengale writes that the club has lost $40MM this year.

That would make adding a larger contract like that of Walker counterproductive in most scenarios. Perhaps there was a version of the deal where the Twins retained less of Correa’s salary while taking on Walker’s contract, but given his mediocre 2025 campaign (96 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR) and the fact that he’s already 34 years old it’s understandable that the Twins wouldn’t be too interested in adding him at the beginning of a rebuild that might not end until Walker has already hit free agency.

There’s at least an argument to be made that he would’ve been a worthwhile addition to the club based on their lack of a long-term solution at the position, however. Kody Clemens is currently serving as the club’s first baseman and has blasted 12 homers in 65 games since landing in Minnesota, but is a career 82 wRC+ hitter in 222 big league games who seems unlikely to sustain that sort of production. Edouard Julien and Jose Miranda are both capable of playing the position and have past big league success but poor performance has relegated them to the minors for much of the year.

That could make the veteran consistency Walker could provide quite attractive in theory, especially after the loss of Correa and others from the clubhouse could leave a dearth of veteran leadership in the clubhouse outside of franchise face Byron Buxton. On the other hand, Walker lacks much upside; even his best seasons with the Diamondbacks saw him peak at a wRC+ of around 120, and the Twins could likely find a younger, cheaper alternative who has more of a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order force if they were interested in doing so this offseason.

While the Twins may not have been a fit for Walker’s services, Nightengale suggests that the veteran might get shopped by the Astros this winter in a bid to make room for infielder Isaac Paredes as first base next year. That’s a sensible assumption based on the composition of the club’s roster. While the idea of Paredes moving to second was briefly floated last offseason, there’s been a great deal of skepticism since then about his viability as a defender at third base. Yordan Alvarez must be penciled in as the club’s DH even after a 2025 season that has been mostly lost to injury, and with a former Gold Glove shortstop in Correa who’s eager to move to third base in deference to fellow Gold Glove shortstop Jeremy Pena there isn’t room for Paredes on the left side of the infield anymore.

At the same time, Paredes’s bat is much too important to lose from the lineup. The two-time All-Star has hit an impressive .259/.359/.470 with 19 homers, 15 doubles, and triple in 96 games for the Astros this year. The third baseman is expected to miss the remainder of the 2025 season at this point, so fitting him into the lineup is not a concern in the short-term. First base seems like by far the most logical fit the slugger for the 2026 season, however. Paredes is under team control through the end of the 2027 season, so he’ll need to find a new long-term home in Houston with Correa set to take over the hot corner.

That will likely make Walker expendable this offseason. He’s certainly not had the season either side was hoping for when he signed with the Astros on a three-year, $60MM deal this past offseason. Back in June, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote about the lackluster start Walker had to his Astros career. He’s begun to turn things around since then, with a strong .288/.352/.466 (129 wRC+) slash line in 186 plate appearances since that article was published, but the concerns discussed in that piece still ring true. Walker is an aging, pricey veteran on a multi-year contract who has begun to show signs of decline.

It’s not the easiest profile to find a suitor for, but perhaps there will be a team in need of help at first base this winter with whom the club can work out a trade—particularly if they’re willing to pay down some of Walker’s remaining salary. The veteran’s play over the season’s final two months and into the postseason figures to have a major influence over how feasible an offseason trade will end up being and how much money, if any, the Astros would have to retain in order to move him.

If Houston’s front office doesn’t find an offer they deem acceptable for Walker, there are other avenues to working out the infield logjam, though each presents some issues. Perhaps Paredes could see some time at second base despite defensive questions. It’s possible that Walker could get some playing time at DH on days Alvarez plays the outfield, with Jose Altuve at second base. A trade of Paredes could even theoretically be considered, especially if a similarly well-regarded and controllable outfielder was available in return. As the Astros demonstrated for Jose Abreu, they’re also not opposed to simply cutting ties with a struggling veteran who no longer fits the club’s needs, though Walker would surely need to take an extreme turn for the worse in order for that option to be on the table.

Astros Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Astros announced a lengthy slate of post-deadline moves Friday. Houston reinstated shortstop Jeremy Pena from the injured list and designated infielder Zack Short for assignment. The Astros also activated newly reacquired Carlos Correa and fellow trade acquisitions Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, adding all three to the active roster.

In corresponding roster moves, Infield prospect Brice Matthews and outfield prospect Jacob Melton were optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land. The ’Stros also recalled righty Nick Hernandez to take the roster spot of righty Ryan Gusto, who was traded to the Marlins in the Sanchez deal. Finally, right-hander Nick Robertson was outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers. He’d been designated for assignment earlier in the week.

Pena wound up missing more than a month due to a fracture in his ribcage. He was in the midst of a breakout, MVP-caliber season prior to landing on the injured list. The 27-year-old has slashed .322/.378/.489 (143 wRC+) with 11 homers, 18 doubles, a triple and 15 steals in 350 plate appearances. He was also playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at shortstop, generating plus marks from Defensive Runs Saved (7) and Outs Above Average (4). He’ll return to his customary shortstop, while the newly reacquired Correa will slide over to third base in deference to the young shortstop who he mentored during the pair’s prior overlap in the Astros organization.

As for Short, he’ll be placed on waivers within the next five days now that the trade deadline has passed. He’s appeared in 22 games and taken 56 plate appearances with just a .220/.291/.380 output to show in that small sample. The 30-year-old Short has appeared in parts of five big league seasons and is a .172/.271/.296 hitter in 594 trips to the plate as a major leaguer. He’s a solid defender at multiple infield positions but is out of minor league options, so he’ll either clear waivers or have to stick on the major league roster of another club that claims him.

Astros Notes: Peña, Matthews, Smith

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The Astros placed star shortstop Jeremy Peña on the injured list due to a fractured rib, leaving them without their team’s most valuable player for at least a period of 10 days. A firm timetable for Peña’s return wasn’t provided by the team, and based on general manager Dana Brown’s comments regarding the injury, it sounds as though the club is taking an optimistic approach but doesn’t have a concrete idea of just how long he’ll be sidelined.

Via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, Brown called Peña’s injury a “pain tolerance thing” and left a rather open-ended window when discussing his shortstop’s potential return date. “If he feels like he’s fine after a week, we’ll start some baseball activity,” said Brown. “We can give him some things to do, and he might be able to play through it as it heals.”

Brown noted that there’s still a good bit of inflammation at the site of the fracture, but if that clears up in a timely manner, it’s possible Peña could return “soon after the 10 days” — provided he can tolerate the discomfort. Of course, there are plenty of factors to consider. Swinging with a fractured rib would presumably impact Peña’s productivity at the plate, and the prospect of him laying out for a grounder at shortstop or taking another errant pitch off the ribs could exacerbate the matter. There’s also no telling when the inflammation will calm down and he’ll feel well enough to swing; Peña was originally plunked on Friday night and missed the next two games due to ongoing pain before follow-up MRI and CT scans revealed a fracture that initial x-rays failed to detect.

Now that Peña is out for at least a short spell, Leah Vann of Chron.com argues that the Astros ought to take their first big league look at 2023 first-rounder Brice Matthews. With utilityman Mauricio Dubón likely to slide over to shortstop, an already weak point in the lineup (second base) could become that much more compromised. Matthews has played 52 of his 67 games this season at second base and turned in a robust .285/.403/.492 batting line (135 wRC+) in 298 Triple-A plate appearances.

Houston doesn’t need to protect Matthews from the Rule 5 Draft before the 2026-27 offseason. Selecting him to the 40-man roster more than a year prior to that point runs the risk of prematurely burning through some of his option years. However, given his production at the top minor league level, Matthews is making a clear case for a promotion, and if the Astros are confident he’s going to be in the majors for the long haul anyway, concern over those option years would be rendered moot. It’s possible Houston trades for a veteran second baseman, but talks along those lines — not just for the Astros but for the whole league — probably won’t pick up in earnest until later this month.

With both Peña and Yordan Alvarez sidelined, Houston’s lineup is missing two of its most talented hitters. They’ll need to rely more heavily on the rest of the bats for the time being, including touted rookie Cam Smith. Smith has been on absolute fire at the plate lately, slashing .367/.433/.617 over his past 16 games. As he’s heated up, he’s also climbed the batting order. Smith was batting seventh, eighth and ninth for much of May but has been plugged into the fourth or fifth spot in the lineup each game since June 19.

The Astros are bullish on Smith’s ability to be a fixture in their long-term lineup, of course, and the manner in which he’s taken to right field from a defensive standpoint only bolsters that optimism. A former third baseman, Smith is learning right field on the fly, but Brown said on the Astros’ pregame radio show this week that even dating back to the draft, he believed Smith would benefit from a move off third base and into the outfield.

“I didn’t feel like, as a scout evaluating him, that he was going to be this piece at third base,” Brown said (via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Brown personally scouted Smith on multiple occasions despite knowing he had no real chance to fall all the way to the Astros at No. 28. Those in-person looks paid off when the Kyle Tucker trade discussions began with the Cubs, however, and once the Astros pried Smith loose, Brown recalled advising his staff: “I don’t feel we took this guy for him to play third base, my vision for him is right field.”

Smith has taken to right field like a duck to water. He’s made just two errors in 597 innings at the position while generating a whopping +9 Defensive Runs Saved and +4 Outs Above Average. Statcast pegs Smith’s range in the 91st percentile of big league outfielders and credits him with 82nd-percentile arm strength. There’s still some learning to do when it comes to throwing, as Statcast actually grades his throwing as a negative despite that plus arm strength — likely a reflection of Smith still honing his accuracy on those lengthier throws and on developing instincts for hitting the cutoff man, throwing to the proper base, etc. For a converted infielder, however, the plus range, sure hands and strong arm set the foundation for a Gold Glove ceiling.

Unsurprisingly, Rome suggests that Smith’s long-term home is in right field and that there’s no infield return planned. With Isaac Paredes hitting well and controlled two more seasons beyond the current campaign, that seemed like a given anyhow, but Brown’s comments only further reinforce that long-term outlook for Smith.

Astros Place Jeremy Peña On Injured List With Fractured Rib

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The Astros announced Monday that star shortstop Jeremy Peña has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a “small” fracture in one of his left ribs. The team has not yet provided a timetable for Peña’s expected return. A corresponding move will not be announced until later in the day, the team added.

Peña was hit with a pitch in the ribs by Cubs rookie Cade Horton this past Friday. He exited the game, but initial x-rays came back negative. Peña was out of the lineup both Saturday and Sunday, and he was clearly still feeling discomfort, as the Astros indicated that follow-up MRI and CT scans were performed, which revealed the fracture.

It’s an awful injury for the Astros. Peña is enjoying a full-fledged breakout this year, turning in a performance that could well make him an American League MVP finalist. The 27-year-old shortstop is hitting .322/.378/.489 with 11 home runs, 18 doubles, a triple and 15 steals (in 17 tries) — all while playing plus defense at shortstop. FanGraphs ranks him third in the majors with 4.1 wins above replacement, tied with Shohei Ohtani and trailing only Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. Baseball-Reference has Peña tied with Raleigh for second in baseball, behind only Judge.

Peña’s breakout has in part been fueled by some good fortune on balls in play (.360 BABIP, up from .308 in his three prior seasons), but that’s only part of the tale. He’s upped his walk rate, and while it’s still below league average, his 5.7% mark is a notable improvement over last year’s paltry 3.8% clip. His 15.7% strikeout rate is down from last year’s 17.1% mark. Peña’s batted-ball profile doesn’t necessarily look all that different upon first glance, but while his overall average exit velocity is nearly unchanged from 2024, his exit velocity on balls hit in the air. specifically, is up nearly three miles per hour. Statcast’s “expected” metrics still feel there’s some regression in store, but there are tangible changes to his underlying statistical profile that suggest he’s not simply going to fade back to his pedestrian offense from 2022-24.

Replacing the type of production Peña has provided simply isn’t feasible. Mauricio Dubón has stepped up at shortstop over the past couple days and can at least be expected to provide solid glovework, but he’s a career .259/.294/.379 hitter who’s batting .239/.278/.390 in 2025. Prospect Brice Matthews, Houston’s pick at No. 28 overall in the 2023 draft, is currently in Triple-A and slashing .285/.403/.492 with a huge 15.4% walk rate but also a weighty 28.5% strikeout rate.

Matthews is not yet on the 40-man roster and wouldn’t need to be added this winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, but his performance nonetheless puts him in the conversation for a look with Peña shelved. Presumably, the longer Peña is expected to miss, the more seriously the organization would consider Matthews an option to step in for him. Alternative options within the organization who have some shortstop experience include Shay Whitcomb (already on the 40-man roster), Zack Short and Greg Jones. Neither Short nor Jones is on the 40-man, however. Whitcomb has barely played shortstop in 2025 but does have a bit more than 1800 career professional innings at the position.

AL West Notes: Severino, Pena, Langford

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The Athletics are playing all of their games for the next few years at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento while they wait for their stadium in Las Vegas to be constructed. It’s been expected from the very beginning that playing in a minor league stadium would be an adjustment for the players, and before the season began there were issues raised by the MLBPA that resulted in a brief scuffle over whether the park would have grass or synthetic turf. Even with concessions such as the use of grass, however, some players were bound to find the change jarring.

According to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Luis Severino is one such player. Severino has performed much better on the road this year, with a 2.27 ERA in seven road starts as compared to a 6.79 ERA in ten starts at Sutter Health Park. When asked about the discrepancy, Severino was quick to attribute it to the fact that the team gets to play in a traditional MLB stadium when on the road.

“We don’t have that at home right now,” Severino said, as relayed by Kuty. “It’s not the same. It’s not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun. There’s no air conditioning there, too. It’s really tough.”

The A’s are expected to remain at Sutter Health Park through the end of the 2027 season, so conditions aren’t likely to change in the short-term. Severino signed with the A’s for three years and $67MM over the winter, and while his deal comes with an opt-out clause after the second season he’s still locked into that contract through the end of the 2026 campaign.

Given Severino’s displeasure with his home ballpark and the Athletics’ lackluster 34-51 record, it’s easy to speculate about the possibility of a trade benefiting all parties. The righty was floated as a possible trade target for the Cubs earlier this week, but there’s plenty of reason to think the A’s might be reluctant to part with Severino considering the struggles they’ve had luring high-dollar free agents into the organization previously. While most clubs would expect to be able to replace a high-dollar veteran they part with in trade via free agency the following winter, it’s not hard to imagine the A’s ballpark situation making free agent pitchers reluctant to sign there.

More from the AL West…

  • Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena was out of the lineup today after getting hit by a pitch in the ribs during yesterday’s game against the Cubs, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) that Pena came in today feeling better after being considered day-to-day yesterday. Espada added that Pena would receive treatment and do light baseball activities but be held out of tonight’s game. That creates reason for optimism he could be back in the lineup for the series finale on Sunday, which would be a huge boost given that Pena has put himself into the MVP conversation with a blistering first half. Mauricio Dubon has filled in at shortstop in Pena’s absence.
  • Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford was placed on the injured list due to an oblique strain yesterday, but MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry writes that both Langford himself and Rangers brass have suggested the issue isn’t a serious one. President of baseball operations Chris Young told reporters that the team having two upcoming days off on the schedule played a role in the decision to send Langford for what the club expects to be a minimum IL stint, and added that the injury was “right on the cusp” of being something they’d just rest Langford on the bench for a few days for. Langford has struggled to a lackluster .224/.286/.342 in June this year, so perhaps a ten-day reset could benefit the 23-year-old in more ways than one. Alejandro Osuna has joined Evan Carter and Adolis Garcia in the regular outfield mix while Langford is out of commission.

Extension Talks Between Astros, Jeremy Peña Put On Hold

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The Astros and Jeremy Peña were apparently making some recent progress on extension talks, per reports from Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Heyman described the talks as “serious” while Alexander said the two sides were “deep” in discussions. Alexander adds that the deal in question would have exceeded $105MM over five years. However, Heyman notes that these talks took place before Peña switched his representation to the Boras Corporation. Earlier this week, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that Peña had hired Boras to represent him.

Peña, 27, has long been a solid shortstop of the glove-first variety but his bat has taken a step forward this year. From 2022 to 2024, he produced a combined .261/.307/.399 batting line. He hit 47 home runs but only drew walks in 4.9% of his plate appearances. His 100 wRC+ for that span indicates he was exactly league average at the plate. But thanks to his glovework and 44 stolen bases, he was able to produce 8.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs.

This year, he’s already up to 4.0 fWAR through 79 games thanks to a massive .326/.382/.495 line and 150 wRC+. That’s not entirely sustainable, as he’s currently riding a .365 batting average on balls in play. For context, this year’s league average is .291 and Peña personally had a .308 BABIP coming into the season. Still, there are some signs it’s not entirely luck. His 41.4% hard hit rate is a career high. He has 11 home runs, despite only hitting 15 last year and just 10 the year prior. His 5.9% walk rate is still low but an improvement for him. His strikeout rate is also down for a fourth straight year. He had a 24.2% rate in his rookie season in 2022, then 20.3% the year after, 17.1% last season and 15.9% this year.

Though there may be some regression coming, it seems fair to conclude Peña has increased his earning power with his bat this year. Perhaps he realized this as well and that’s why he made the pivot to Boras. The idea that Boras clients never sign extensions is incorrect, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Several big-name Boras clients have signed extensions, including Stephen Strasburg, Xander Bogaerts and Peña’s teammates Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr..

On the other hand, there is some truth to the fact that Boras clients generally lean towards trying out the free agent market. It’s possible there’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg thing happening. Do Boras clients look to maximize earnings because that’s the way the agency prefers to operate? Or do players looking to max out hire Boras because they have seen him play that game?

Whatever the reasoning, Peña has made the switch at a notable time. He came into this year with exactly three years of major league service time, meaning he’ll be at the four-year mark at the end of the year and on pace for free agency after 2027.

Peña is currently in his age-27 season, making a $4.1MM arbitration salary. A five-year deal starting in 2026 would buy out his final two arb years and three free agent years. Looking again to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker for players in the 4-5 service window who signed extensions, the group has two clear standouts. Garrett Crochet recently secured himself a six-year, $170MM guarantee. A few years prior, Matt Olson got $168MM over eight years.

There’s a clear gap between those deals and what the Astros were discussing with Peña, so perhaps that is what has led to this pause. Since Peña is currently in his age-27 season, he is on track to reach free agency after his age-29 campaign. A five-year extension would buy out his age-28 through age-32 seasons. If he can keep putting up solid numbers, he should have more earning power by going year to year and hitting the open market younger. Though that naturally comes with the risk that his performance dips or he suffers a significant injury between now and then.

Ultimately, it’s up to Peña and what his priorities are. As mentioned, he’s making $4.1MM this year. He has already set himself up for a nice raise next year. He should have some financial security and could bank on himself if he wants. If he’s comfortable with the Astros, perhaps he would be willing to take something below full market value to stay, but then maybe he wouldn’t have hired Boras if that were the case.

For the Astros, they have extended some players, as mentioned. However, they have also let guys like Carlos Correa, George Springer and others walk to sign elsewhere. They signed Alex Bregman to an early-career extension but eventually let him hit free agency and sign with the Red Sox. Framber Valdez seems likely to depart after the current season. Kyle Tucker seemed unlikely to sign an extension and was traded in the offseason.

Payroll wise, the Astros are right up against the competitive balance tax this year and are clearly trying to avoid it, though they have more wiggle room going forward. RosterResource has their 2026 CBT number pegged at $135MM, about $100MM lower than this year’s. Arbitration raises will increase that numbers but the club is going to see commitments to José Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero come off the books. Their most notable impending free agent is Valdez, though they may feel they can replace him internally with their many injured starters potentially getting healthier by next year.

Looking farther down the line, McCullers comes off the books after 2026, Christian Walker and Cristian Javier after 2027, then Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader after 2028. Altuve is the only guy on the books by 2029 and they’re clear by 2030. It appears there should be room in there for Peña but he will have to agree on an acceptable price point.

Photo courtesy of Cary Edmondson, Imagn Images

Poll: AL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. With an MVP set to be crowned in both leagues after the season, that means two players are already halfway through a year that will earn them the sport’s most prestigious individual award. Who are the frontrunners to claim the trophy for themselves this offseason? We’ll be looking at both leagues over the next two days, starting with the American League:

Aaron Judge

Major stars like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Kyle Tucker have migrated to the National League in recent years, but Judge would arguably have entered the season as the odds-on favorite even if he were still competing with them. The slugger already won the MVP award in both 2022 and ’24. Ohtani won back-to-back MVP awards in 2023 and ’24, but those were for two different teams in two different leagues. Judge would be the first player to win back-to-back MVPs in the same league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and ’13. Uncommon as the feat may be, Judge seems well positioned to pull it off. His .367/.468/.727 (225 wRC+) slash line is nothing short of comical, and he already has an absurd 6.0 WAR season according to Fangraphs through just 77 games.

That’s a higher total than stars like Jackson Merrill and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were able to cobble together in a full slate of games last year, and it’s hard to argue with those numbers. Dominant as Judge has been, however, it must be pointed out that he’s currently benefiting from an eye-popping .453 BABIP. That figure is 100 points higher than his career mark, which is already at the high end of the spectrum for sustainable BABIP figures. It would be the highest BABIP by a qualified player since 1871 if he were to maintain it over a full season, and just the second time a player posted a BABIP of even .400 since 2002, joining Yoan Moncada’s 2019 campaign.

Cal Raleigh

If anyone has a chance to challenge Judge for the title, Raleigh likely has the best shot. He’s hit a whopping 31 home runs this season to capture the MLB-wide lead, and his .276/.383/.659 (191 wRC+) slash line is almost as incredible as that of Judge. Raleigh’s 5.1 fWAR is second in the majors to Judge as well, and he’s even managed to chip in on the bases by swiping nine bags in 11 opportunities. Of course, the most impressive thing about Raleigh’s season is that he’s doing all of this while playing the game’s most taxing defensive position. He’s caught 58 of the 75 games he’s appeared in, and if he keeps this up over the full season he’d surpass legendary seasons by Buster Posey in 2012 and Johnny Bench in 1972 to put together the best season behind the plate in MLB history.

The biggest obstacle to Raleigh turning this first-half momentum into an MVP win is, of course, Judge. While Raleigh has the edge in terms of baserunning, defense, home runs, and strikeout rate, Judge is leading in WAR, wRC+, walk rate, all three triple slash categories, and games played. There’s no question about whose season has been more productive when stripping away the context of Raleigh’s position, and Judge might need to cool off significantly in the second half just for their numbers to be comparable when all is said and done.

Bobby Witt Jr.

After finishing second to Judge in 2024 AL MVP voting with a stellar campaign, Witt is back at it this year with another banner year. His elite shortstop glove has made him the second most valuable defender in baseball according to Fangraphs, and he’s already stolen 21 bases after swiping just 31 total last year. With that being said, the power that allowed him to swat 32 homers last year has taken a big step back. The drop off in power has left him with a .286/.343/.490 (123 wRC+) slash line that’s well above average but not quite MVP-caliber, and he would likely need to turn things up a notch in the second half and benefit from steps backward by Judge and Raleigh in order to have a chance at coming home with the trophy.

Jeremy Pena

Perhaps the most surprising entrant into this list, Pena has never so much as made an All-Star appearance in his career but is in the midst of an incredible season. He’s slashed .326/.380/.493 (149 wRC+) in 78 games so far this year with 11 homers and 15 steals in 17 attempts alongside an excellent 16.1% strikeout rate. That wRC+ is seventh-highest among qualified AL hitters, and Pena benefits further from playing a valuable defensive position in shortstop. With that being said, he’s not quite on the level of Witt defensively and his .365 BABIP is elevated well outside the range of his career norms. Like Witt, he’ll likely need a massive slowdown in production from Judge and Raleigh in order to be a serious contender for the award this year.

Other Options

Judge, Raleigh, Witt, and Pena are all more or less in a class of their own at this point in the season, and even Witt and Pena would need a lot to go right in order for them to catch the two front-runners. With that being said, there are some other at least plausible candidates. Tarik Skubal continues to dominate on the mound and his 3.9 fWAR tally matches that of Witt and Pena. Jose Ramirez remains as consistent as ever and could put up another 30-30 season this year. Jonathan Aranda has been one of baseball’s best hitters this year but doesn’t play a premium position. Byron Buxton has flashed all five tools this year with strong defense, elite speed, and a 155 wRC+ but will have trouble garnering much attention with just 60 games played so far.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL MVP voting? Will Judge reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Raleigh step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Can Jeremy Pena Keep This Up?

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It’s been a struggle for the Astros to even keep their heads above water this year thanks to the substantial losses they suffered over the offseason and a large number of lackluster in-season performances. Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker are all playing elsewhere. Yordan Alvarez is hurt. Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, and new addition Christian Walker have all been disappointing so far. And the rotation has virtually no certainty behind Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. All of that makes staying just 2.5 games back in the AL West an impressive feat in its own right, even if the days of the dynasty that brought home two World Series championships appear to be over.

The development of shortstop Jeremy Pena is a major reason why they’re still in the hunt for the playoffs at all at this point. A third-rounder in the 2018 draft who debuted in 2022 with a brilliant season that earned him a Gold Glove award, Pena has always been a valuable player thanks to his excellent work at shortstop but has never been more than a league average performer at the plate. Entering 2025, the 27-year-old had slashed .261/.307/.399 with a wRC+ of exactly 100 during his MLB career.

As the Cubs demonstrated when they offered Dansby Swanson $177MM to become their starting shortstop, a league average bat with an excellent glove at shortstop is already incredibly valuable. Pena has seemingly taken his game to another level so far this year, however. He’s hitting an excellent .298/.362/.447 with six homers, six steals, and a wRC+ of 132 this season. Those numbers aren’t exactly appearing at the top of any leaderboards this early in the season, when relatively small sample sizes allow baseball’s most fearsome hitters to flirt with a .400 batting average or a 60-homer season virtually every year. But could Pena’s step forward be more sustainable than the typical hot start to a season?

There’s plenty of reason to believe that’s the case. One of the most positive changes in Pena’s profile is his substantially improved plate discipline. After striking out at a 20.4% clip and posting the third-lowest walk rate in the majors among hitters with at least 1500 plate appearances over the past three years, Pena is now one of just 19 qualified hitters with a strikeout rate under 14% this year (13.7%). He’s even walking a bit more frequently, with a 6.2% rate that grades out as merely below average rather than in the conversation for lowest in the league. Those improvements in plate discipline appear to be largely sustainable. Pena is swinging less often than ever (49.0%), and while that’s come with a decrease in swing rate inside the strike zone it’s also allowed him to cut down his swinging strike rate by nearly three points relative to his career norms.

While Pena’s increased passivity in the strike zone could be a cause for concern down the line, for now it seems as though swinging less often is doing wonders for his plate discipline. That willingness to take strikes inside the zone has been offset so far by increased power production. Pena’s .149 ISO to this point in the season doesn’t quite match his rookie campaign, when he launched 22 homers and 20 doubles, but it’s still ten points above his career norms and leaves room for him to flirt with a second 20-homer season after combining for just 25 long balls in 2023 and ’24. If this newfound power proves to be sustainable, that could help Pena avoid opposing pitchers challenging him in the zone more often to exploit the fact that he’s begun to swing less often.

The underlying metrics on Pena’s power output are mixed, however. He’s hitting the ball hard more often than ever before with a 40.1% hard-hit rate that would be the best of his career, but his 6.8% barrel rate is not substantially different from his career 6.2% mark, his average exit velocity is virtually unchanged, and his max exit velocity is actually lower than ever before. His bat speed has actually come down slightly as well. It’s not all bad news, however: in addition to his aforementioned hard-hit rate improvements, Pena is squaring the ball up more often than ever before (28.9%). In all, Pena’s xwOBA (.349) is more or less in line with his wOBA of .355, which suggests that he’s more or less earned his production to this point.

How do MLBTR readers feel about Pena’s strong start to the season? Is it a sustainable step forward for the young hitter, or will he revert back to average with time? Have your say in the poll below:

AL West Notes: Astros, Sano, A’s

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Since being hired to helm the club’s baseball operations last winter, Astros GM Dana Brown has not been shy about the club’s interest in extending its core players. So far, that has yielded extensions for both right-hander Cristian Javier and second baseman Jose Altuve, with third baseman Alex Bregman and outfielder Kyle Tucker seemingly the club’s next priorities to negotiate with. With that being said, Brown recently indicated to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) that the club would have interest in looking into extensions for players with less service time, as has become commonplace in Atlanta, where Brown served as scouting director prior to joining the Astros.

Per Rome, that interest has not yet materialized in extension negotiations, at least when it comes to shortstop Jeremy Pena and right-hander Bryan Abreu. Pena finished fifth in AL Rookie of the Year voting during the 2022 season and earned a Gold Glove for his work at shortstop, but took a step back last season as he slashed .263/.324/.381 with just 10 home runs in 634 trips to the plate. Abreu, meanwhile, just turned in his second consecutive campaign with a sub-2.00 ERA out of the Astros bullpen, pitching to a 1.75 ERA in 72 innings of work while striking out a whopping 34.8% of batters faced. Pena remains under control through the end of the 2027 season, while Abreu can be controlled through at least 2026.

That the Astros have yet to engage either player in extension talks hardly precludes them from doing so in the future. While Rome relays that Pena recently declined to comment about his contract status, Abreu indicated that he’s open to offers from the team. Rome highlights sophomore catcher Yainer Diaz as another early-career extension candidate in Houston, with right-hander Hunter Brown and outfielder Chas McCormick among other speculative candidate who could make sense as potential extension targets for the club at some point.

More from around the AL West…

  • Prior to signing a minor league deal with the Angels this past winter, veteran slugger Miguel Sano spent the 2023 season hard at work at improving his health after being unable to secure even a non-roster deal with a club last winter on the heels of a 2022 season that saw him slash a ghastly .083/.211/.133 while being limited to just 20 games by knee injuries. During his season away from affiliated ball, The Athletic’s Sam Blum writes that Sano not only focused on keeping his knee healthy after undergoing surgery on it the year prior but also completely overhauled his diet and exercise regime. The results speak for themselves, as Sano entered the Halos’ camp this spring having shed 58 pounds since he last took the field in the big leagues. If Sano can work his way back onto the big league roster, he could be a source of right-handed power in Anaheim after hitting 162 homers in just 694 games during his eight years with the Twins.
  • In recent mailbag, Scott Ostler and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle relayed that earlier in the Athletics’ search for an interim home between the end of their lease at the Coliseum this fall and the construction of their new stadium in Las Vegas, which is expected to be complete in time for Opening Day 2028, the club considered a multi-city plan that would have seen the club play either 41 or 60 games at the Giants’ home stadium of Oracle Park while splitting the rest of the club’s games between Sacramento and Anaheim. This plan would have kept the A’s in compliance with their TV contract, which stipulates that the club must play at least 41 games in the Bay Area. Ostler and Shea go on to add that San Francisco wasn’t willing to offer the A’s more than 20 games at Oracle, however, and that a split schedule between multiple host cities is no longer under consideration as the club has since turned its attention towards negotiating a lease extension at the Coliseum.

West Notes: Longoria, Scherzer, Pena

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With the Diamondbacks still in the thick of a playoff run, third baseman Evan Longoria surely hasn’t had much time to ponder whether or not he’ll continue playing beyond the 2023 season in recent days. That being said, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated today that the veteran, who celebrated his 38th birthday over the weekend, is “leaning towards” playing again in 2024, though he’s made no official decision at this point.

That Longoria would consider playing beyond this season is of little surprise. In part time duty with the Diamondbacks this season, the veteran has slashed .223/.295/.422 with a wRC+ of 92 in 74 games. Those numbers are decent for a part-time player, but what really sticks out is Longoria’s performance prior to being shelved for a month with a lower back strain at the end of July. At the time of his injury, Longoria’s slash line was an impressive .238/.303/.500 with 11 home runs and nine doubles in just 178 plate appearances. Those well above average numbers and the significant power Longoria flashed would make him a useful addition to plenty of teams, particularly given his apparent willingness to accept a part-time role.

What’s more, a career milestone could be within reach for Longoria if he returns in 2024: the veteran has 1,930 hits for his career to this point, putting him just 70 away from 2,000 career hits. While Longoria hasn’t reached 70 hits in a season in recent years, he’s come very close with 66- and 65-hit campaigns in 2021 and 2022, respectively. If he decides to continue playing in 2024, he’d join a free agent class at third base that includes Jeimer Candelario, Matt Chapman, and Gio Urshela.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • Though he was left off the Rangers’ roster for the ALDS, veteran right-hander Max Scherzer is seemingly making good progress in his bid to return from what was initially expected to be a season-ending teres major strain. As relayed by Rangers beat reporter John Moore, Scherzer told manager Bruce Bochy today that he feels “normal” after a successful bullpen session against live hitters on Friday. Given the positive update, it seems reasonable that Scherzer could remain in play for the Rangers during the ALCS, should the club make it that far. Texas currently holds a 2-0 lead over the Orioles in the ALDS. If Scherzer can return this postseason, it would surely be a major boost for the Rangers. The future Hall of Famer posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.45 FIP across eight starts with the Rangers after the club acquired him from the Mets at the trade deadline.
  • Astros fans received a bit of a scare during last night’s loss to the Twins when shortstop Jeremy Pena suffered an awkward landing on first base while running out the final out of the game. Fortunately, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle relayed this afternoon that Pena was on the field and taking grounders during the club’s workout session during today’s off-day in Minnesota. Given Pena’s participation in the workout, it seems whatever may have been ailing Pena won’t be an issue headed into Game 3 of the ALDS tomorrow. Pena, who hit .263/.324/.381 in 634 trips to the plate this season, would likely be backed up by Mauricio Dubon at shortstop in the event that he was unable to play.
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