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Jeremy Pena

Jeremy Pena Dealing With Oblique Strain

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Imaging has revealed a left oblique strain for Jeremy Pena, the shortstop told reporters on Thursday. Chandler Rome of The Athletic was among those to relay the update. Pena had been out of the lineup for the past four games. He was initially in Sunday’s starting nine before being scratched due to the injury. Houston was swept at home by Seattle and has dropped the first two games of the series against the Athletics.

Just a few days after GM Dana Brown said Pena’s oblique injury “could be just a two-day thing,” Pena is now facing what could be an extended absence. While no roster move has been made regarding Pena, oblique injury timelines are typically measured in weeks, not days. It’s the second time this season that Pena has dealt with a left side issue, as he missed 27 games with a broken left rib.

It’s brutal news for a Houston team that just lost Yordan Alvarez to an ankle sprain. The Astros ceded their spot atop the AL West over the weekend and are now in danger of missing the postseason altogether. They entered Thursday’s action one game behind the Tigers for the final AL Wild Card spot. Given that the season is hanging by a thread, perhaps there would be some temptation to put Pena out there even when he’s not 100%. However, they are also doing that with Isaac Paredes, who was rushed back from a hamstring injury and is using the designated hitter spot at the moment.

The oblique injury could cut short a breakout 2025 campaign for Pena. The 28-year-old posted a healthy 135 wRC+ while slashing .304/.363/.477. He matched a career high with 20 steals. Pena’s 17 home runs fell short of the 22 he hit as a rookie, but he exceeded his total from 2024 in 107 fewer plate appearances. It was quite the bounce-back season after Pena put up below league-average offensive numbers the past two seasons. He equaled his career-best strikeout rate from 2024 at 17.1%, while pushing his hard-hit rate up over 40% for the first time, per Statcast. Pena was able to combine the improved plate discipline from 2024 with the power he showed in his debut MLB season, turning him into one of Houston’s most potent offensive threats.

The Astros have turned to Mauricio Dubon at shortstop for three of the four games without Pena. Carlos Correa slid over from third base to cover the spot on Wednesday. He certainly has plenty of experience playing up the middle for Houston. The versatile Ramon Urias is also an option at shortstop, though he hasn’t appeared in a big-league game at the position since 2022. It’s hard to imagine any of the potential replacements matching Pena’s offensive prowess, but Dubon is at least a viable defensive fit. While Pena had an excellent defensive season, ranking seventh among shortstops in Outs Above Average, Dubon is actually eighth on that list.

Astros Notes: Pena, Alvarez, Rodgers, Polanco

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6:16PM: During the Astros’ pregame radio show, GM Dana Brown said that Pena’s oblique injury “could be just a two-day thing.  It’s minor based on the initial evaluation of it.”  Pena will still get some testing done out of due diligence. (Hat tip to Chandler Rome).

5:40PM: As the Astros head into a critical matchup with the Mariners tonight, Houston will be without one of its key players for at least this game and perhaps beyond.  Jeremy Pena was included in the initial lineup but has now been scratched due to left oblique soreness, according to an announcement from the team.

Needless to say, losing Pena would be devastating to the Astros’ chances of winning the AL West, or even making the postseason given how the standings have narrowed.  The Astros trail Seattle by two games in the division race after losing the first two games of this weekend series, and another loss tonight would put Houston out of the playoff picture entirely, as the surging Guardians would have a matching 84-72 record and the tiebreaker edge.

Because the Astros don’t play on Monday, it provides some extra time to evaluate Pena’s condition.  If it is just a matter of soreness and tonight’s scratch was more of a precautionary move, it’s possible the shortstop could be back in action as soon as Tuesday.  Oblique issues are notoriously hard to project, however, so even if Pena remains short of an actual oblique strain, there might still be enough discomfort that the Astros don’t want to risk putting him into a game.

Pena is having the best of his four Major League seasons, hitting .304/.363/.477 with 17 homers and 20 steals (in 22 attempts) over 543 plate appearances.  Each of those slash categories is a new career high for Pena, and he has also matched his personal best in stolen bases.  Between his big numbers and excellent defense, Pena has been worth 5.7 fWAR this season, even though he missed all of July recovering from a rib fracture.

Injuries have been the biggest problem of Houston’s season, as it is rather remarkable that the Astros are still in the race given how many key players have missed substantial amounts of time.  Yordan Alvarez is one of those figures, as the slugger has been limited to 48 games due to a hand injury that included a finger fracture, and most recently a sprained ankle that sent him back to the IL on September 16.

Alvarez provided media (including the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara) with an update on his status today, saying that he has yet to begin baseball activities since the inflammation in his ankle hasn’t fully settled.  On the plus side, Alvarez is no longer wearing a protective boot, and he feels he is healing a little quicker than expected.  In the absolutely best case scenario, Alvarez would be eligible to be activated off the IL on Friday, when the Astros visit the Angels in the opener of their final series of the year.

One player who won’t be an option is Brendan Rodgers, as manager Joe Espada confirmed to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that Rodgers’ season is officially over.  The news is no surprise, as Rodgers hasn’t played in a big league game since June 14.  Initially sidelined by an oblique strain, Rodgers suffered a concussion and a nasal fracture after an on-field collision in his first minor league rehab game in July.  He returned to play one more minors game in August but was then sidelined by back problems.

Signed to a minor league deal in February, Rodgers made the Opening Day roster, and thus locked in a $2MM salary for the 2025 season.  He hit .191/.266/.278 over 128 PA and 43 games before his injuries prematurely ended his season, and Rodgers will surely have to settle for another minor league contract with Houston or another club this winter.

Rodgers was brought aboard to add second base depth due to Jose Altuve’s planned move to left field, and he may have been a fallback plan after Houston missed on signing Jorge Polanco.  The Astros were the runners-up to the Mariners in signing Polanco, as the veteran infielder told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that Houston was “very close.  They made a good offer, but Seattle came back with a better offer.”

The Mariners were also given the chance to counter, as Divish writes that Polanco’s agent gave Seattle a last chance to top the Astros’ offer.  The end result was a one-year, $7.75MM guarantee plus a mutual option for 2026 that has now vested into a player option.  Missing out on Polanco might well end up being the difference for the Astros in the AL West race, as Polanco rebounded in a huge way from a lackluster 2024 season to hit .265/.325/.489 with 24 homers for the M’s this year.

Astros, Twins Reportedly Discussed Christian Walker In Carlos Correa Trade

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5:17PM: Nightengale clarified his earlier report, saying that it was the Twins who first floated Walker’s name and the Astros who passed on moving the first baseman.

2:56PM: The Astros and Twins pulled off a shocking move in the final hours before the deadline that brought three-time All-Star infielder Carlos Correa back home to the team that he spent the first seven seasons of his career with. The deal sent Correa to Houston in exchange for pitching prospect Matt Mikulski, with the Twins retaining $33MM of the $103.4MM remaining on Correa’s contract. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provided additional details on the Correa negotiations this morning.

Most notably, Nightengale writes that the sides talked about including veteran first baseman Christian Walker as part of the return headed to Minnesota in exchange for Correa’s services. He adds that while the Twins “had the opportunity” to acquire Walker as part of the deal, they passed on taking the final two years and $40MM of his contract on. That’s not exactly a shocking decision. Given that Mikulski is a 26-year-old who has not yet even reached the Double-A level, it’s fair to view the Correa deal as a pure salary dump for Minnesota. Previous reporting has indicated that the Twins are more than $400MM in debt, and Nightengale writes that the club has lost $40MM this year.

That would make adding a larger contract like that of Walker counterproductive in most scenarios. Perhaps there was a version of the deal where the Twins retained less of Correa’s salary while taking on Walker’s contract, but given his mediocre 2025 campaign (96 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR) and the fact that he’s already 34 years old it’s understandable that the Twins wouldn’t be too interested in adding him at the beginning of a rebuild that might not end until Walker has already hit free agency.

There’s at least an argument to be made that he would’ve been a worthwhile addition to the club based on their lack of a long-term solution at the position, however. Kody Clemens is currently serving as the club’s first baseman and has blasted 12 homers in 65 games since landing in Minnesota, but is a career 82 wRC+ hitter in 222 big league games who seems unlikely to sustain that sort of production. Edouard Julien and Jose Miranda are both capable of playing the position and have past big league success but poor performance has relegated them to the minors for much of the year.

That could make the veteran consistency Walker could provide quite attractive in theory, especially after the loss of Correa and others from the clubhouse could leave a dearth of veteran leadership in the clubhouse outside of franchise face Byron Buxton. On the other hand, Walker lacks much upside; even his best seasons with the Diamondbacks saw him peak at a wRC+ of around 120, and the Twins could likely find a younger, cheaper alternative who has more of a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order force if they were interested in doing so this offseason.

While the Twins may not have been a fit for Walker’s services, Nightengale suggests that the veteran might get shopped by the Astros this winter in a bid to make room for infielder Isaac Paredes as first base next year. That’s a sensible assumption based on the composition of the club’s roster. While the idea of Paredes moving to second was briefly floated last offseason, there’s been a great deal of skepticism since then about his viability as a defender at third base. Yordan Alvarez must be penciled in as the club’s DH even after a 2025 season that has been mostly lost to injury, and with a former Gold Glove shortstop in Correa who’s eager to move to third base in deference to fellow Gold Glove shortstop Jeremy Pena there isn’t room for Paredes on the left side of the infield anymore.

At the same time, Paredes’s bat is much too important to lose from the lineup. The two-time All-Star has hit an impressive .259/.359/.470 with 19 homers, 15 doubles, and triple in 96 games for the Astros this year. The third baseman is expected to miss the remainder of the 2025 season at this point, so fitting him into the lineup is not a concern in the short-term. First base seems like by far the most logical fit the slugger for the 2026 season, however. Paredes is under team control through the end of the 2027 season, so he’ll need to find a new long-term home in Houston with Correa set to take over the hot corner.

That will likely make Walker expendable this offseason. He’s certainly not had the season either side was hoping for when he signed with the Astros on a three-year, $60MM deal this past offseason. Back in June, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote about the lackluster start Walker had to his Astros career. He’s begun to turn things around since then, with a strong .288/.352/.466 (129 wRC+) slash line in 186 plate appearances since that article was published, but the concerns discussed in that piece still ring true. Walker is an aging, pricey veteran on a multi-year contract who has begun to show signs of decline.

It’s not the easiest profile to find a suitor for, but perhaps there will be a team in need of help at first base this winter with whom the club can work out a trade—particularly if they’re willing to pay down some of Walker’s remaining salary. The veteran’s play over the season’s final two months and into the postseason figures to have a major influence over how feasible an offseason trade will end up being and how much money, if any, the Astros would have to retain in order to move him.

If Houston’s front office doesn’t find an offer they deem acceptable for Walker, there are other avenues to working out the infield logjam, though each presents some issues. Perhaps Paredes could see some time at second base despite defensive questions. It’s possible that Walker could get some playing time at DH on days Alvarez plays the outfield, with Jose Altuve at second base. A trade of Paredes could even theoretically be considered, especially if a similarly well-regarded and controllable outfielder was available in return. As the Astros demonstrated for Jose Abreu, they’re also not opposed to simply cutting ties with a struggling veteran who no longer fits the club’s needs, though Walker would surely need to take an extreme turn for the worse in order for that option to be on the table.

Astros Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Astros announced a lengthy slate of post-deadline moves Friday. Houston reinstated shortstop Jeremy Pena from the injured list and designated infielder Zack Short for assignment. The Astros also activated newly reacquired Carlos Correa and fellow trade acquisitions Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, adding all three to the active roster.

In corresponding roster moves, Infield prospect Brice Matthews and outfield prospect Jacob Melton were optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land. The ’Stros also recalled righty Nick Hernandez to take the roster spot of righty Ryan Gusto, who was traded to the Marlins in the Sanchez deal. Finally, right-hander Nick Robertson was outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers. He’d been designated for assignment earlier in the week.

Pena wound up missing more than a month due to a fracture in his ribcage. He was in the midst of a breakout, MVP-caliber season prior to landing on the injured list. The 27-year-old has slashed .322/.378/.489 (143 wRC+) with 11 homers, 18 doubles, a triple and 15 steals in 350 plate appearances. He was also playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at shortstop, generating plus marks from Defensive Runs Saved (7) and Outs Above Average (4). He’ll return to his customary shortstop, while the newly reacquired Correa will slide over to third base in deference to the young shortstop who he mentored during the pair’s prior overlap in the Astros organization.

As for Short, he’ll be placed on waivers within the next five days now that the trade deadline has passed. He’s appeared in 22 games and taken 56 plate appearances with just a .220/.291/.380 output to show in that small sample. The 30-year-old Short has appeared in parts of five big league seasons and is a .172/.271/.296 hitter in 594 trips to the plate as a major leaguer. He’s a solid defender at multiple infield positions but is out of minor league options, so he’ll either clear waivers or have to stick on the major league roster of another club that claims him.

Astros Notes: Peña, Matthews, Smith

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The Astros placed star shortstop Jeremy Peña on the injured list due to a fractured rib, leaving them without their team’s most valuable player for at least a period of 10 days. A firm timetable for Peña’s return wasn’t provided by the team, and based on general manager Dana Brown’s comments regarding the injury, it sounds as though the club is taking an optimistic approach but doesn’t have a concrete idea of just how long he’ll be sidelined.

Via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, Brown called Peña’s injury a “pain tolerance thing” and left a rather open-ended window when discussing his shortstop’s potential return date. “If he feels like he’s fine after a week, we’ll start some baseball activity,” said Brown. “We can give him some things to do, and he might be able to play through it as it heals.”

Brown noted that there’s still a good bit of inflammation at the site of the fracture, but if that clears up in a timely manner, it’s possible Peña could return “soon after the 10 days” — provided he can tolerate the discomfort. Of course, there are plenty of factors to consider. Swinging with a fractured rib would presumably impact Peña’s productivity at the plate, and the prospect of him laying out for a grounder at shortstop or taking another errant pitch off the ribs could exacerbate the matter. There’s also no telling when the inflammation will calm down and he’ll feel well enough to swing; Peña was originally plunked on Friday night and missed the next two games due to ongoing pain before follow-up MRI and CT scans revealed a fracture that initial x-rays failed to detect.

Now that Peña is out for at least a short spell, Leah Vann of Chron.com argues that the Astros ought to take their first big league look at 2023 first-rounder Brice Matthews. With utilityman Mauricio Dubón likely to slide over to shortstop, an already weak point in the lineup (second base) could become that much more compromised. Matthews has played 52 of his 67 games this season at second base and turned in a robust .285/.403/.492 batting line (135 wRC+) in 298 Triple-A plate appearances.

Houston doesn’t need to protect Matthews from the Rule 5 Draft before the 2026-27 offseason. Selecting him to the 40-man roster more than a year prior to that point runs the risk of prematurely burning through some of his option years. However, given his production at the top minor league level, Matthews is making a clear case for a promotion, and if the Astros are confident he’s going to be in the majors for the long haul anyway, concern over those option years would be rendered moot. It’s possible Houston trades for a veteran second baseman, but talks along those lines — not just for the Astros but for the whole league — probably won’t pick up in earnest until later this month.

With both Peña and Yordan Alvarez sidelined, Houston’s lineup is missing two of its most talented hitters. They’ll need to rely more heavily on the rest of the bats for the time being, including touted rookie Cam Smith. Smith has been on absolute fire at the plate lately, slashing .367/.433/.617 over his past 16 games. As he’s heated up, he’s also climbed the batting order. Smith was batting seventh, eighth and ninth for much of May but has been plugged into the fourth or fifth spot in the lineup each game since June 19.

The Astros are bullish on Smith’s ability to be a fixture in their long-term lineup, of course, and the manner in which he’s taken to right field from a defensive standpoint only bolsters that optimism. A former third baseman, Smith is learning right field on the fly, but Brown said on the Astros’ pregame radio show this week that even dating back to the draft, he believed Smith would benefit from a move off third base and into the outfield.

“I didn’t feel like, as a scout evaluating him, that he was going to be this piece at third base,” Brown said (via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Brown personally scouted Smith on multiple occasions despite knowing he had no real chance to fall all the way to the Astros at No. 28. Those in-person looks paid off when the Kyle Tucker trade discussions began with the Cubs, however, and once the Astros pried Smith loose, Brown recalled advising his staff: “I don’t feel we took this guy for him to play third base, my vision for him is right field.”

Smith has taken to right field like a duck to water. He’s made just two errors in 597 innings at the position while generating a whopping +9 Defensive Runs Saved and +4 Outs Above Average. Statcast pegs Smith’s range in the 91st percentile of big league outfielders and credits him with 82nd-percentile arm strength. There’s still some learning to do when it comes to throwing, as Statcast actually grades his throwing as a negative despite that plus arm strength — likely a reflection of Smith still honing his accuracy on those lengthier throws and on developing instincts for hitting the cutoff man, throwing to the proper base, etc. For a converted infielder, however, the plus range, sure hands and strong arm set the foundation for a Gold Glove ceiling.

Unsurprisingly, Rome suggests that Smith’s long-term home is in right field and that there’s no infield return planned. With Isaac Paredes hitting well and controlled two more seasons beyond the current campaign, that seemed like a given anyhow, but Brown’s comments only further reinforce that long-term outlook for Smith.

Astros Place Jeremy Peña On Injured List With Fractured Rib

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The Astros announced Monday that star shortstop Jeremy Peña has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a “small” fracture in one of his left ribs. The team has not yet provided a timetable for Peña’s expected return. A corresponding move will not be announced until later in the day, the team added.

Peña was hit with a pitch in the ribs by Cubs rookie Cade Horton this past Friday. He exited the game, but initial x-rays came back negative. Peña was out of the lineup both Saturday and Sunday, and he was clearly still feeling discomfort, as the Astros indicated that follow-up MRI and CT scans were performed, which revealed the fracture.

It’s an awful injury for the Astros. Peña is enjoying a full-fledged breakout this year, turning in a performance that could well make him an American League MVP finalist. The 27-year-old shortstop is hitting .322/.378/.489 with 11 home runs, 18 doubles, a triple and 15 steals (in 17 tries) — all while playing plus defense at shortstop. FanGraphs ranks him third in the majors with 4.1 wins above replacement, tied with Shohei Ohtani and trailing only Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. Baseball-Reference has Peña tied with Raleigh for second in baseball, behind only Judge.

Peña’s breakout has in part been fueled by some good fortune on balls in play (.360 BABIP, up from .308 in his three prior seasons), but that’s only part of the tale. He’s upped his walk rate, and while it’s still below league average, his 5.7% mark is a notable improvement over last year’s paltry 3.8% clip. His 15.7% strikeout rate is down from last year’s 17.1% mark. Peña’s batted-ball profile doesn’t necessarily look all that different upon first glance, but while his overall average exit velocity is nearly unchanged from 2024, his exit velocity on balls hit in the air. specifically, is up nearly three miles per hour. Statcast’s “expected” metrics still feel there’s some regression in store, but there are tangible changes to his underlying statistical profile that suggest he’s not simply going to fade back to his pedestrian offense from 2022-24.

Replacing the type of production Peña has provided simply isn’t feasible. Mauricio Dubón has stepped up at shortstop over the past couple days and can at least be expected to provide solid glovework, but he’s a career .259/.294/.379 hitter who’s batting .239/.278/.390 in 2025. Prospect Brice Matthews, Houston’s pick at No. 28 overall in the 2023 draft, is currently in Triple-A and slashing .285/.403/.492 with a huge 15.4% walk rate but also a weighty 28.5% strikeout rate.

Matthews is not yet on the 40-man roster and wouldn’t need to be added this winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, but his performance nonetheless puts him in the conversation for a look with Peña shelved. Presumably, the longer Peña is expected to miss, the more seriously the organization would consider Matthews an option to step in for him. Alternative options within the organization who have some shortstop experience include Shay Whitcomb (already on the 40-man roster), Zack Short and Greg Jones. Neither Short nor Jones is on the 40-man, however. Whitcomb has barely played shortstop in 2025 but does have a bit more than 1800 career professional innings at the position.

AL West Notes: Severino, Pena, Langford

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The Athletics are playing all of their games for the next few years at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento while they wait for their stadium in Las Vegas to be constructed. It’s been expected from the very beginning that playing in a minor league stadium would be an adjustment for the players, and before the season began there were issues raised by the MLBPA that resulted in a brief scuffle over whether the park would have grass or synthetic turf. Even with concessions such as the use of grass, however, some players were bound to find the change jarring.

According to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Luis Severino is one such player. Severino has performed much better on the road this year, with a 2.27 ERA in seven road starts as compared to a 6.79 ERA in ten starts at Sutter Health Park. When asked about the discrepancy, Severino was quick to attribute it to the fact that the team gets to play in a traditional MLB stadium when on the road.

“We don’t have that at home right now,” Severino said, as relayed by Kuty. “It’s not the same. It’s not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun. There’s no air conditioning there, too. It’s really tough.”

The A’s are expected to remain at Sutter Health Park through the end of the 2027 season, so conditions aren’t likely to change in the short-term. Severino signed with the A’s for three years and $67MM over the winter, and while his deal comes with an opt-out clause after the second season he’s still locked into that contract through the end of the 2026 campaign.

Given Severino’s displeasure with his home ballpark and the Athletics’ lackluster 34-51 record, it’s easy to speculate about the possibility of a trade benefiting all parties. The righty was floated as a possible trade target for the Cubs earlier this week, but there’s plenty of reason to think the A’s might be reluctant to part with Severino considering the struggles they’ve had luring high-dollar free agents into the organization previously. While most clubs would expect to be able to replace a high-dollar veteran they part with in trade via free agency the following winter, it’s not hard to imagine the A’s ballpark situation making free agent pitchers reluctant to sign there.

More from the AL West…

  • Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena was out of the lineup today after getting hit by a pitch in the ribs during yesterday’s game against the Cubs, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) that Pena came in today feeling better after being considered day-to-day yesterday. Espada added that Pena would receive treatment and do light baseball activities but be held out of tonight’s game. That creates reason for optimism he could be back in the lineup for the series finale on Sunday, which would be a huge boost given that Pena has put himself into the MVP conversation with a blistering first half. Mauricio Dubon has filled in at shortstop in Pena’s absence.
  • Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford was placed on the injured list due to an oblique strain yesterday, but MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry writes that both Langford himself and Rangers brass have suggested the issue isn’t a serious one. President of baseball operations Chris Young told reporters that the team having two upcoming days off on the schedule played a role in the decision to send Langford for what the club expects to be a minimum IL stint, and added that the injury was “right on the cusp” of being something they’d just rest Langford on the bench for a few days for. Langford has struggled to a lackluster .224/.286/.342 in June this year, so perhaps a ten-day reset could benefit the 23-year-old in more ways than one. Alejandro Osuna has joined Evan Carter and Adolis Garcia in the regular outfield mix while Langford is out of commission.

Extension Talks Between Astros, Jeremy Peña Put On Hold

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The Astros and Jeremy Peña were apparently making some recent progress on extension talks, per reports from Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Heyman described the talks as “serious” while Alexander said the two sides were “deep” in discussions. Alexander adds that the deal in question would have exceeded $105MM over five years. However, Heyman notes that these talks took place before Peña switched his representation to the Boras Corporation. Earlier this week, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that Peña had hired Boras to represent him.

Peña, 27, has long been a solid shortstop of the glove-first variety but his bat has taken a step forward this year. From 2022 to 2024, he produced a combined .261/.307/.399 batting line. He hit 47 home runs but only drew walks in 4.9% of his plate appearances. His 100 wRC+ for that span indicates he was exactly league average at the plate. But thanks to his glovework and 44 stolen bases, he was able to produce 8.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs.

This year, he’s already up to 4.0 fWAR through 79 games thanks to a massive .326/.382/.495 line and 150 wRC+. That’s not entirely sustainable, as he’s currently riding a .365 batting average on balls in play. For context, this year’s league average is .291 and Peña personally had a .308 BABIP coming into the season. Still, there are some signs it’s not entirely luck. His 41.4% hard hit rate is a career high. He has 11 home runs, despite only hitting 15 last year and just 10 the year prior. His 5.9% walk rate is still low but an improvement for him. His strikeout rate is also down for a fourth straight year. He had a 24.2% rate in his rookie season in 2022, then 20.3% the year after, 17.1% last season and 15.9% this year.

Though there may be some regression coming, it seems fair to conclude Peña has increased his earning power with his bat this year. Perhaps he realized this as well and that’s why he made the pivot to Boras. The idea that Boras clients never sign extensions is incorrect, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Several big-name Boras clients have signed extensions, including Stephen Strasburg, Xander Bogaerts and Peña’s teammates Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr..

On the other hand, there is some truth to the fact that Boras clients generally lean towards trying out the free agent market. It’s possible there’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg thing happening. Do Boras clients look to maximize earnings because that’s the way the agency prefers to operate? Or do players looking to max out hire Boras because they have seen him play that game?

Whatever the reasoning, Peña has made the switch at a notable time. He came into this year with exactly three years of major league service time, meaning he’ll be at the four-year mark at the end of the year and on pace for free agency after 2027.

Peña is currently in his age-27 season, making a $4.1MM arbitration salary. A five-year deal starting in 2026 would buy out his final two arb years and three free agent years. Looking again to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker for players in the 4-5 service window who signed extensions, the group has two clear standouts. Garrett Crochet recently secured himself a six-year, $170MM guarantee. A few years prior, Matt Olson got $168MM over eight years.

There’s a clear gap between those deals and what the Astros were discussing with Peña, so perhaps that is what has led to this pause. Since Peña is currently in his age-27 season, he is on track to reach free agency after his age-29 campaign. A five-year extension would buy out his age-28 through age-32 seasons. If he can keep putting up solid numbers, he should have more earning power by going year to year and hitting the open market younger. Though that naturally comes with the risk that his performance dips or he suffers a significant injury between now and then.

Ultimately, it’s up to Peña and what his priorities are. As mentioned, he’s making $4.1MM this year. He has already set himself up for a nice raise next year. He should have some financial security and could bank on himself if he wants. If he’s comfortable with the Astros, perhaps he would be willing to take something below full market value to stay, but then maybe he wouldn’t have hired Boras if that were the case.

For the Astros, they have extended some players, as mentioned. However, they have also let guys like Carlos Correa, George Springer and others walk to sign elsewhere. They signed Alex Bregman to an early-career extension but eventually let him hit free agency and sign with the Red Sox. Framber Valdez seems likely to depart after the current season. Kyle Tucker seemed unlikely to sign an extension and was traded in the offseason.

Payroll wise, the Astros are right up against the competitive balance tax this year and are clearly trying to avoid it, though they have more wiggle room going forward. RosterResource has their 2026 CBT number pegged at $135MM, about $100MM lower than this year’s. Arbitration raises will increase that numbers but the club is going to see commitments to José Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero come off the books. Their most notable impending free agent is Valdez, though they may feel they can replace him internally with their many injured starters potentially getting healthier by next year.

Looking farther down the line, McCullers comes off the books after 2026, Christian Walker and Cristian Javier after 2027, then Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader after 2028. Altuve is the only guy on the books by 2029 and they’re clear by 2030. It appears there should be room in there for Peña but he will have to agree on an acceptable price point.

Photo courtesy of Cary Edmondson, Imagn Images

Poll: AL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. With an MVP set to be crowned in both leagues after the season, that means two players are already halfway through a year that will earn them the sport’s most prestigious individual award. Who are the frontrunners to claim the trophy for themselves this offseason? We’ll be looking at both leagues over the next two days, starting with the American League:

Aaron Judge

Major stars like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Kyle Tucker have migrated to the National League in recent years, but Judge would arguably have entered the season as the odds-on favorite even if he were still competing with them. The slugger already won the MVP award in both 2022 and ’24. Ohtani won back-to-back MVP awards in 2023 and ’24, but those were for two different teams in two different leagues. Judge would be the first player to win back-to-back MVPs in the same league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and ’13. Uncommon as the feat may be, Judge seems well positioned to pull it off. His .367/.468/.727 (225 wRC+) slash line is nothing short of comical, and he already has an absurd 6.0 WAR season according to Fangraphs through just 77 games.

That’s a higher total than stars like Jackson Merrill and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were able to cobble together in a full slate of games last year, and it’s hard to argue with those numbers. Dominant as Judge has been, however, it must be pointed out that he’s currently benefiting from an eye-popping .453 BABIP. That figure is 100 points higher than his career mark, which is already at the high end of the spectrum for sustainable BABIP figures. It would be the highest BABIP by a qualified player since 1871 if he were to maintain it over a full season, and just the second time a player posted a BABIP of even .400 since 2002, joining Yoan Moncada’s 2019 campaign.

Cal Raleigh

If anyone has a chance to challenge Judge for the title, Raleigh likely has the best shot. He’s hit a whopping 31 home runs this season to capture the MLB-wide lead, and his .276/.383/.659 (191 wRC+) slash line is almost as incredible as that of Judge. Raleigh’s 5.1 fWAR is second in the majors to Judge as well, and he’s even managed to chip in on the bases by swiping nine bags in 11 opportunities. Of course, the most impressive thing about Raleigh’s season is that he’s doing all of this while playing the game’s most taxing defensive position. He’s caught 58 of the 75 games he’s appeared in, and if he keeps this up over the full season he’d surpass legendary seasons by Buster Posey in 2012 and Johnny Bench in 1972 to put together the best season behind the plate in MLB history.

The biggest obstacle to Raleigh turning this first-half momentum into an MVP win is, of course, Judge. While Raleigh has the edge in terms of baserunning, defense, home runs, and strikeout rate, Judge is leading in WAR, wRC+, walk rate, all three triple slash categories, and games played. There’s no question about whose season has been more productive when stripping away the context of Raleigh’s position, and Judge might need to cool off significantly in the second half just for their numbers to be comparable when all is said and done.

Bobby Witt Jr.

After finishing second to Judge in 2024 AL MVP voting with a stellar campaign, Witt is back at it this year with another banner year. His elite shortstop glove has made him the second most valuable defender in baseball according to Fangraphs, and he’s already stolen 21 bases after swiping just 31 total last year. With that being said, the power that allowed him to swat 32 homers last year has taken a big step back. The drop off in power has left him with a .286/.343/.490 (123 wRC+) slash line that’s well above average but not quite MVP-caliber, and he would likely need to turn things up a notch in the second half and benefit from steps backward by Judge and Raleigh in order to have a chance at coming home with the trophy.

Jeremy Pena

Perhaps the most surprising entrant into this list, Pena has never so much as made an All-Star appearance in his career but is in the midst of an incredible season. He’s slashed .326/.380/.493 (149 wRC+) in 78 games so far this year with 11 homers and 15 steals in 17 attempts alongside an excellent 16.1% strikeout rate. That wRC+ is seventh-highest among qualified AL hitters, and Pena benefits further from playing a valuable defensive position in shortstop. With that being said, he’s not quite on the level of Witt defensively and his .365 BABIP is elevated well outside the range of his career norms. Like Witt, he’ll likely need a massive slowdown in production from Judge and Raleigh in order to be a serious contender for the award this year.

Other Options

Judge, Raleigh, Witt, and Pena are all more or less in a class of their own at this point in the season, and even Witt and Pena would need a lot to go right in order for them to catch the two front-runners. With that being said, there are some other at least plausible candidates. Tarik Skubal continues to dominate on the mound and his 3.9 fWAR tally matches that of Witt and Pena. Jose Ramirez remains as consistent as ever and could put up another 30-30 season this year. Jonathan Aranda has been one of baseball’s best hitters this year but doesn’t play a premium position. Byron Buxton has flashed all five tools this year with strong defense, elite speed, and a 155 wRC+ but will have trouble garnering much attention with just 60 games played so far.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL MVP voting? Will Judge reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Raleigh step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will be the AL MVP in 2025?
Aaron Judge 54.96% (4,111 votes)
Cal Raleigh 37.38% (2,796 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 2.70% (202 votes)
Jeremy Pena 2.65% (198 votes)
Bobby Witt Jr. 2.31% (173 votes)
Total Votes: 7,480

Poll: Can Jeremy Pena Keep This Up?

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It’s been a struggle for the Astros to even keep their heads above water this year thanks to the substantial losses they suffered over the offseason and a large number of lackluster in-season performances. Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker are all playing elsewhere. Yordan Alvarez is hurt. Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, and new addition Christian Walker have all been disappointing so far. And the rotation has virtually no certainty behind Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. All of that makes staying just 2.5 games back in the AL West an impressive feat in its own right, even if the days of the dynasty that brought home two World Series championships appear to be over.

The development of shortstop Jeremy Pena is a major reason why they’re still in the hunt for the playoffs at all at this point. A third-rounder in the 2018 draft who debuted in 2022 with a brilliant season that earned him a Gold Glove award, Pena has always been a valuable player thanks to his excellent work at shortstop but has never been more than a league average performer at the plate. Entering 2025, the 27-year-old had slashed .261/.307/.399 with a wRC+ of exactly 100 during his MLB career.

As the Cubs demonstrated when they offered Dansby Swanson $177MM to become their starting shortstop, a league average bat with an excellent glove at shortstop is already incredibly valuable. Pena has seemingly taken his game to another level so far this year, however. He’s hitting an excellent .298/.362/.447 with six homers, six steals, and a wRC+ of 132 this season. Those numbers aren’t exactly appearing at the top of any leaderboards this early in the season, when relatively small sample sizes allow baseball’s most fearsome hitters to flirt with a .400 batting average or a 60-homer season virtually every year. But could Pena’s step forward be more sustainable than the typical hot start to a season?

There’s plenty of reason to believe that’s the case. One of the most positive changes in Pena’s profile is his substantially improved plate discipline. After striking out at a 20.4% clip and posting the third-lowest walk rate in the majors among hitters with at least 1500 plate appearances over the past three years, Pena is now one of just 19 qualified hitters with a strikeout rate under 14% this year (13.7%). He’s even walking a bit more frequently, with a 6.2% rate that grades out as merely below average rather than in the conversation for lowest in the league. Those improvements in plate discipline appear to be largely sustainable. Pena is swinging less often than ever (49.0%), and while that’s come with a decrease in swing rate inside the strike zone it’s also allowed him to cut down his swinging strike rate by nearly three points relative to his career norms.

While Pena’s increased passivity in the strike zone could be a cause for concern down the line, for now it seems as though swinging less often is doing wonders for his plate discipline. That willingness to take strikes inside the zone has been offset so far by increased power production. Pena’s .149 ISO to this point in the season doesn’t quite match his rookie campaign, when he launched 22 homers and 20 doubles, but it’s still ten points above his career norms and leaves room for him to flirt with a second 20-homer season after combining for just 25 long balls in 2023 and ’24. If this newfound power proves to be sustainable, that could help Pena avoid opposing pitchers challenging him in the zone more often to exploit the fact that he’s begun to swing less often.

The underlying metrics on Pena’s power output are mixed, however. He’s hitting the ball hard more often than ever before with a 40.1% hard-hit rate that would be the best of his career, but his 6.8% barrel rate is not substantially different from his career 6.2% mark, his average exit velocity is virtually unchanged, and his max exit velocity is actually lower than ever before. His bat speed has actually come down slightly as well. It’s not all bad news, however: in addition to his aforementioned hard-hit rate improvements, Pena is squaring the ball up more often than ever before (28.9%). In all, Pena’s xwOBA (.349) is more or less in line with his wOBA of .355, which suggests that he’s more or less earned his production to this point.

How do MLBTR readers feel about Pena’s strong start to the season? Is it a sustainable step forward for the young hitter, or will he revert back to average with time? Have your say in the poll below:

Will Jeremy Pena be an above average hitter going forward?
Yes, Pena's improved discipline and power output are sustainable enough for him to remain an above average hitter. 58.65% (1,010 votes)
No, Pena's questionable power metrics and passivity at the plate will cause him to regress back to average with time. 41.35% (712 votes)
Total Votes: 1,722
Show all

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