Earlier this week, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Padres had discussed Dylan Cease with multiple AL East teams in addition to the Mets and Cubs. It seems the interest from the AL East has come from every contending club in that division. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees have all checked in with the Friars to express interest.
The Cease rumors have picked up steam over the past few days. It’d be unconventional for a team that presently occupies the National League’s final playoff spot to trade one of its two best healthy starters. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never shied away from big swings, though, and they’re seemingly considering the idea of trading Cease for young talent while reallocating payroll room and prospects to different available starters. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported last night that they’re among the teams that have been in touch with the Marlins regarding Sandy Alcantara, for instance.
Cease is an impending free agent who is playing on a $13.75MM salary. He’s a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer if the Padres hold him all season. As a luxury tax payor, they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the 2026 draft. That’s worth far less than they’d receive if they traded him, though they need to balance that against the hit it’d deal to the rotation for the stretch run.
The 29-year-old Cease is incredibly durable and has pitched at a top-of-the-rotation level in previous seasons. His near-30% strikeout rate and 97 MPH average fastball still point to that ceiling, but he hasn’t managed particularly strong results this year. He carries a 4.59 earned run average across 113 2/3 innings. Some of that can be traced to a nine-run drubbing at the hands of the A’s in their extremely hitter-friendly park in Sacramento back in April. That’s hardly the sole factor, though. Cease got on a decent run after that outing but has allowed a 5.21 ERA over his most recent seven starts.
Even if this hasn’t been a banner year, Cease’s track record and stuff would make him an extremely desirable trade target. He’d be the best rental rotation arm available, and teams would still view him as a surefire playoff starter. The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are all known to be in the starting pitching market. New York has a strong 1-2 in Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, but Luis Gil is a health question mark and they lost Clarke Schmidt to Tommy John surgery. Boston would certainly benefit from adding another high-end starter to pair with Cease’s former White Sox teammate, Garrett Crochet. Toronto’s veteran-laden rotation lacks a true top-end starter, and they’ve already been tied to some of the higher upside trade candidates like Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller.
The Rays would be the most surprising entrant into this group, though Tampa Bay tends to at least kick the tires on big names even if they don’t often land them. They’re a game and a half back of Boston in the Wild Card race. They’d have little hope of re-signing Cease, and a big push for a rental when they’re a bubble team seems unlikely. Tampa Bay could trade a starter like Taj Bradley or Zack Littell in the coming days; they’re also hopeful of getting Shane McClanahan back in the final two months.
San Diego awaits the return of one of their own top starters. Michael King has been out for more than two months with a nerve injury in his shoulder. He’s targeting a mid-August comeback. As of now, he’d team with Cease, Nick Pivetta and potentially Yu Darvish in a playoff rotation. That’s not a terrible group, but both Cease and King are months from free agency. Pivetta can opt out after next season, and Darvish is approaching his 39th birthday. Even with Joe Musgrove returning from Tommy John surgery next year, the long-term rotation picture is cloudy. They could try to thread the needle of acquiring a controllable arm while shipping Cease out.
Beware of the Rays!
LOL! Near zero probability. Such a trade would be antithetical to their values.
You never know. The Rays keep their powder dry. They always have a little more money available than anyone expects. If they really believe Cease puts them over the top, I’m confident they have everything they need to make it happen.
I don’t like hating on the Jays, but I think they will fade. The Yankees have more holes than there are available solutions, and I’m not sure how much salary they want to add. I still think Boston has enough talent to take the division. But Tampa could be opportunistic here and pounce.
Like I said, beware of the Rays.
Jays can go .500 down the stretch and win 90 games.
Rays would need to go 37-22 during that same stretch to make 90.
Not impossible but not likely
I agree with your logic, but it’s baseball and that’s why we play the games.
Rays are selling. 3-3 since the ASG and 6-14 over the past 20. Nothing to see here. Just another lost season for our beloved Rays. 🙁
>> Just another lost season for our beloved Rays. 🙁
Most fans would love to experience as few lost seasons for their team as the Rays fans experience.
Taj for Cease
Ya, I think that’s a great starting point. I think the Rays also have some versatile athletes that would greatly improve the Padres depth. A guy like Taylor Walls may not have much value to some teams, but the Padres could use his glove and speed off the bench. I definitely think there is a deal to be made here that works for both sides.
I like Cease but am ok with trading him. For a left fielder or catcher straight up.
Don – A great starting point? You think 1/3 a year of Cease requires 4.3 years of Bradley plus others in trade? Not a chance if so. Padres would need to pony up a lot more than Cease to get Bradley.
Cease would be nice, but none of that matters unless they trade to improve their bullpen. If they’re going to go big this trade deadline, I’d rather it be for Clase than Cease.
Of course, it is the Rays, so I’d be shocked if there is any truth to these rumors.
Geez could you imagine the future Yankees rotation when Cole returns if they were to acquire Cease? Their #4 starter will be making at least $27 million a year. You know Stroman is going to enact his option next year and become the most expensive swingman in MLB. Who gets bumped Schmidt or Gil? Do they trade Warren, Schlittler, and Lagrange (which should be enough 2 top 100 and 1 MLB ready pitchers) plus a couple of lower prospects for Cease and that potential rotation?
I don’t understand this rumor. This just makes no sense to me. The Padres can trade prospects why would they trade their present day pitching?
Cease is currently their 5th best starter. Come playoff time, he’s not a starter at all. He’ll be in the pen or off the playoff roster, based on current performance.
We know the Pads are looking to save money where they can. Why pay the prorated remainder of the $16 mil they owe Cease to pitch at the back end of the rotation when they can dump him off on someone else?
In no world is Cease the Padres 5th best starter.
**Michael King ERA 2.59 / ERA+ 161
Nick Pivetta ERA 2.81 / ERA+ 148
Randy Vásquez ERA 3.73 / ERA+ 111
Stephen Kolek ERA 4.28 / ERA+ 97
Dylan Cease ERA 4.59 / ERA+ 90
** Obviously, King is not currently available. If he comes back and can return to form, he’s back to being the ace.
One of his replacements, Ryan Bergert, has an ERA of 3.25 as a starter
If you want to make the argument that Cease is #4, fine.
Teams generally use a 3-man rotation in the playoffs. He’s not in that rotation this year unless he improves notably.
You honestly think playoffs game 3 the Padres would choose Randy Vazquez over Dylan Cease?
I would hope they would use the pitcher who has performed best this season, and so far, that hasn’t been Cease.
Cease has an FIP 2 runs lower than Vazquez. Vazquez has been luckier not better.
Cease is grossly overrated!
Cease has had ZERO good months this season! The idea that the author of the post blames a bad start vs. the A’s for his bad 2025. He had one mediocre month this season and the others have been bad.
Cease has just TWO seasons with a sub 3.91 ERA.
Cease has TWO seasons with a WHIP below 1.25
Preller knows this too and is being prudent to salvage some value for him in a desperate SP trade market. This will free up cash to improve other areas. A very wise idea by he and the Padres.
I’d trust a bullpen day over cease esp based on last years playoffs. Cease was atrocious for the padres in the playoffs.
I’d rather trust the pen to get it done and keep the opposing team off balance by throwing different look than hope cease can turn things around come playoff time if he hasn’t already during the regular season.
Plus Cease stunk in both his games against the Dodgers last playoffs.
It makes sense in terms of they are maxed on on their payroll and are trying to save money. I’m assuming the marlins are going to have to kick in like 50% of Sandy’s money.
But that’s going to be extremely hard to pull off in my opinion. If it was easy to do I’m sure other small market teams would do this every year.
The Padres can trade prospects. And if they dont want to pay salary they can trade more prospects. That makes sense not trading away a good pitcher in Cease.
Next seasons rotation is even thinner. If they can trade cease for something they can flip for a controllable starter for the next couple of seasons, then it’s a win. If cease was pitching like an all star we wouldn’t be seeing these rumors.
The fact that Cease isnt pitching like an all star is the same reason teams aren’t going to give up a lot to get him.
This is a win now team. They aren’t going to trade Cease and improve their chances in 2025 without luck being involved.
They don’t need to give up a lot they need to give up more value than a 2026 post-4th round pick.
They’d gladly trade Cease for Taj Bradley. Heck, they might even add to some throw ins with Cease to save money and get a controllable starter for multiple years.
And why does this rumor get published every hour?
For 9 months continuum?
Money. Preller might have been told that he can’t add unless he subtracts.
A rich prospect pay for two months? A guy you know is going to leave for a big payday–no extensions to be signed. And someone who hasn’t looked his best this year. You better be a team on the cusp of championship quality
Exactly. Who’s starting the bidding? Cubbies? Rays?? Boston???
I was hoping in the offseason that my O’s would make a play for him. Hindsight being what it is I’m glad we didn’t. Would’ve been a lost season regardless of whether he was pitching up to his potential or not. If I’m the Padres though, I think you play it out. You’re close enough in the standings to make a playoff push. But at the same time I guess it would be prudent to at least listen to other teams.
Rays finally willing to spend the money they’ve been stealing from the rest of the league?!
I cannot see the Padres dealing Cease based on Preller’s past behavior unless it’s an impossible offer to turn down (like a long-term LF/1B/C solution) and they have a backup SP option who at least can eat innings during the regular season. Too many ?s with King and Yu staying healthy and trusting Kolek/Bergert in a playoff series. I do like the thought of taking on Alcantara and that seems to fit the Preller playbook of pedigree and buying low on pitching. Money aside, I’d be less surprised if Preller stood pat on Cease and brought in Alcantara than if he traded Cease. I don’t think they’ll find any reasonable fix for C, but there are cheap LF/1B/DH options available.
Also I’m realizing this might be the last Dylan Cease trade rumor. What a ride it’s been.
I’d call up the Yankees. Pitching is always in demand.
Padres get
Cam Schlitter
Carlos Lagrange
Spencer Jones
Brock Selvidge
Marcus Stroman
Yankees get
Cease
Suarez
Remove Stro and you got a deal, Easy.
Seems like a lot from the Yankees side and I doubt Suarez gets traded with his opt-out.
Taking back Stroman frees up the Yankees to pursue some upgrades of their own instead of carrying his dead money rest of the season.
I think change of scenery would help Stroman and figure padres work their magic with him
But breakdown wise
Schlittler Jones Stroman for Cease
Lagrange Selvidge for Suarez
It’s about what they’d pay individually in a bidding war for each.
Let’s step back and think that Preller knows King and Yu’s conditions the best of anybody on Earth. This “listening” on Cease reinforces my thoughts that AJ trusts 4-5 other SPs more than him down the stretch and beyond. Other teams are gambling on Cease’s ceiling for 1 Run… and it could pay off. While he hasn’t generated great numbers this year, he’s not dog food either. He still has his + stuff and could *potentially* put it together for a Playoff drive for just about any contender. We’ll see, AJ never seems to have a quiet TDL, but he might still yet.
Yu is 39 and I know they won’t rush King back but shoulders are tricky. You can never have too much pitching, so dealing Cease without a massive upgrade elsewhere on the team or diversifying a bit (like the Soto trade) seems to be at odds with Preller’s long-standing MO. Not saying its impossible, but seems very unlikely to me.
Jays just doing their due diligence as usual. Will cone in second with another big name.
First in the american league though 🤷♂️
One thing people forget is late season calls up. Preller has never been shy about throwing guys out there. I remember him tossing Ryan Weathers out there back in 2020 playoffs saying welcome to the bigs go get em kid
You look at their farm currently two guys stand out. Henry Baez and Brandon Nett.
Come playoff time I see the padres going with Pivetta, Berget and piecing together pen games. And wouldn’t put it past them tossing out two rookies nobody’s seen all season hoping to get a couple innings out of them for the series.
Is it ideal? Nope.
But game three of Morejon 3 innings, Kolek 3 innings gets you to 6
Game four of Darvish 3 innings Jakob 1 inning Hart 2 innings gets you to 6.
You do what you gotta do come playoff time
Cease best strength is durability, but he is an early hook/ineffective against patient lineups. That’s why he hasn’t been good in any big games where he had a shot to shine in Chi or SD.
Good for him he’ll probably get a 5yr/9 figure deal this offseason, but he’s not a big time starter.
How about trading Preller and Shildt.
Said nobody ever! Hahaha
The players all love them both, that tells me everything I need to know.
The players may love them, but they sure aren’t playing like the do right now. No heart at all on this team right now, just going through the motions.
The walks are down but the hits and hr/9 are up.
Cease would be a decent pickup for the Jays. Cease for Varsho and a mid prospect? Varsho would be an upgrade over Merrill for San Diego which needs outfield help/production
I can see your train of thought and not to say he’s not immediately usable, but I really don’t think Varsho is a real improvement over Merrill. Maybe, just maybe with the glove… maybe. Merrill’s unbelievable out there, too! Regardless, it moves Sheets back to the dirt and DH. His bat has slowed down as an LFer. Maybe we can find an arm to add? Obviously not Tiedemann… or maybe so? Toronto seems to have soured on him and Niebla might like to kick the tires. We can obviously balance out, but it won’t be Salas or Leo.
What Toronto has is a lot of OF in the majors/AAA. A lot of them have Mike Tauchman profiles or even Cronenworth offensively. There’s not a lot of ceiling in that group, but they’re ready to have a major league role now. They have some infielders like this too but certainly a glut of OFs. Their system has seen a lot of success on the pitching side this year. They have 4 guys at AA who have taken pretty big steps forward. That seems like a pool of potential trade candidates. They’re not imminent major leaguers but probably on pace to debut next season if they don’t stall. I doubt they are going to part with Yesavage for any rental. But Kendrys Rojas or Jauron Watts-Brown feel like possible headliners for a good rental.
As for Tiedemann, he’s still rehabbing and hadn’t gained any traction before the injury. There’s a big gap between the raw talent and performance so far so he feels like a guy they’d be selling low on and I think that makes him less likely to move.
The other thing the Jays have to offer is money. They could absorb some money SD would rather have off the books. I can’t really see an obvious easy to take on salary though. Those contract structures are not easy to absorb. Matsui maybe?
But first, what are they going to do with Darvish? He is pretty much done. He has entered the Scherzer zone. Move him to the pen? Mop up?
High BABIP, home run vulnerability, and struggles in clutch situations are significant red flags. Best to stay away…
Slider is still sharp; batters are sitting dead-red and finding solid contact%.
Regarding his slider that you say is ‘sharp’…
The drop from 1.8 to 0.2 RV/100 (Run Value 25 to 2) indicates a major reduction in effectiveness, making the slider barely above average in run prevention.
Higher BA (.224 vs. .159), SLG (.383 vs. .257), and wOBA (.303 vs. .208) show batters are hitting the slider more effectively.
Increased Hard Contact: Hard Hit % rose to 37.0% (vs. 34.5% in 2024), suggesting more authoritative contact when hitters connect.
Slight Whiff/K% Decline: Whiff rate (41.9% vs. 44.7%) and K% (37.9% vs. 39.1%) remain strong but are down, indicating reduced swing-and-miss potential.
High Usage: 46.2% usage raises concerns about predictability and arm health, especially with a lower RV/100 and Cease’s overall 2025 struggles (4.53 ERA per original document).
Just watched this heartless bunch of guys loose 2 to the Marlins and tonight to the Cards in person. So frustrating to watch this team. Starting to think Preller & Co. should punt on this season and look to next year. Hard to imagine a team being led by a 2nd year player who is struggling right now (Merrill), making much of a push down the stretch.
Yeah another relatively frustrating season for the Padres. On paper they should be a good 7 pr 8 wins ahead of where they are
I wouldn’t put too much stock in how teams perform around trade deadline time
Players say it doesn’t affect them but common it’s hard to ignore your name mentioned into trade scenarios and on social media. Lot going on around this time that puts extra concern on players like ok if I get traded I have to do this this that this.
I don’t think any of the top arms who are potentially available (like Cease) are worth what the Blue Jays would have to give up in prospect capital. We don’t need another #3 pitcher, we need a Joe Ryan, who I don’t think is a realistic option. I’m at the point where I’d just look at getting an Adrian Houser type as a long man/spot starter and then invest the big assets in back end relievers who will shorten games significantly.
Yeah front office may be thinking the same thing but with Atkins track record i won’t hold my breath.
Tough position for him to be in especially with Bichette probably moving on after this season. A lot to factor in to their decision making
Should have never extended Yu Darvish, milked as much baseball as they could out of him in 2021, ’22 and ’23 and then tagged him with the qualifying offer, shook his hand and showed him the door.
The hell the Rays won’t resign him! Don’t they know that someone other than $ternberg will own them by the time 2025 is over? Maybe this means this new ownership group will actually spend and $tu doesn’t care who they try to get this year since he won’t be footing the bill to resign them.
Nice and thoughtful guy with the gift of poetry. Solid, durable, occasional flashes of brilliance. Not a playoff ace
and yoga, frisbee golf and beekeeping
You should pick up Cease just to troll the Cubs. Esp since you have Q