Mets Interested In Mitch Keller

The Mets have shown interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, according to Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  New York joins the Cubs as teams known to be linked to Keller, who placed second on MLBTR’s ranking of the top 40 trade candidates heading into the deadline.

It was just a week ago that the Mets got an up-close look at Keller when he held them to one run over 5 1/3 innings in Pittsburgh’s 9-1 victory over New York on June 27.  That outing was part of a nice five-start stretch for Keller that has seen the righty post a 2.40 ERA over his last 30 innings of work.  For the season as a whole, Keller has a 3.64 ERA over 106 1/3 innings, delivering both quality and reliability over his regular turns in the Pittsburgh rotation.

This durability likely has particular appeal for a Mets pitching staff that has been hit hard by injuries.  Of the five pitchers who have tossed the most innings for New York this season, Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill are on the 15-day injured list, and Griffin Canning recent underwent a season-ending surgery to fix a ruptured Achilles.  Sean Manaea has yet to pitch this season due to an oblique strain and then a loose body found in his throwing elbow, but he is scheduled to make his return from the IL before the All-Star break.

Since Senga could also be back within the week, the Mets could roll with a rotation of Senga, Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and Frankie Montas through July to see if this starting five is enough to strength the team’s hopes of capturing the NL East and then a World Series title.  Given all of the question marks within that group, adding a stable arm like Keller would certainly seem like a logical move to keep the rotation strong for the stretch run.

Beyond the prospect cost of a Keller trade, the Mets would face a particular financial penalty if they were to take on most or all of the right-hander’s remaining contract.  Keller is owed the remainder of his $15MM salary for 2025, and is then owed $54.5MM over the course of the 2026-28 seasons.  That would put another hefty commitment on the books for a Mets team whose luxury tax number (roughly $326.8MM, as per RosterResource) is well over the maximum tax penalty tier of $301MM.

Some salary offset could be included in any potential trade between the Mets and Pirates, though that would run counter to the Bucs’ desire to shed some payroll by moving Keller in the first place.  With so much young pitching either already in Pittsburgh’s rotation or on the cusp of the majors, the thinking has been that the Pirates would move at least one or both of Keller and impending free agent Andrew Heaney in order to add some young talent (probably on the offensive side), create more openings for Triple-A call-ups, and to create financial flexibility.

“There seems to be a line of thinking where if they can get that money off the payroll, it can be used to acquire a hitter,” a source tells Hiles, which perhaps hints at a scenario where the Pirates could then pivot to acquire a somewhat pricey bat (likely a veteran).  This would indicate a strategy of both selling and buying at the deadline, with the additions being aimed for either the future or perhaps even the short-term.  Despite their 38-51 record, the Pirates haven’t yet fully committed to a full-on sale at the deadline, as the source says that the club’s 6-0 homestand this week might have created some hope that a later surge is possible.

Broadly, the team has played better since Derek Shelton was fired as manager, and interim skipper Don Kelly has led the team to a 26-25 record.  Still, the Bucs remain solidly in last place in the NL Central, and it would take a major hot streak just to get to .500, let alone in contention.  While Pittsburgh might not be ready to explore trades this early into July, the team remains “one of a few teams expected to sell this trade season,” as Hiles puts it.  It is also fair to assume that the budget-conscious Pirates would always be open moving Keller’s contract regardless of their place in the standings, even in the unlikely scenario that the team does catch fire in the weeks leading up to the deadline.