MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! I’ll get started at the usual 1pm CT time, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time.
• Greetings! Sorry for the slight delay. Let’s get going

Yankees

• -3.5 on the Blue Jays, 9-16 over the last 25. Time to panic?

Steve Adams

• Panic? No. Time to go upgrade both the lineup and the rotation? Yeah. Losing Clarke Schmidt really hurts that staff. There’ll be several options to discuss with regard to third base. Yankees fans seem to really want Suarez, but Ryan McMahon fits them really nicely also and would be a manageable CBT hit for the next few seasons.

s45d64

• Who are the sure bets to be moved in Pittsburgh?

Steve Adams

• I’ll be surprised if all of Andrew Heaney, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and David Bednar aren’t traded. Dennis Santana only slightly less so.
• Caleb Ferguson will go, too.

Steve Cohen

• Shouldn’t the Marlins call up Deyvison De Los Santos to play first base? Ramirez has worked out very nicely.

Steve Adams

• He’s not really hitting well overall this season, and his best work came earlier in the year. He’s at .199/.287/.365 over the past two months.I like that De Los Santos is chasing a lot less and walking a little bit more, but his contact rate is still in the gutter. I’m more bullish on Ramirez in general.

Johnny Mo

• Surely the Cards are sellers now?

Steve Adams

• Losing 5 of 6, including a sweep at the hands of the Pirates, can’t feel good … but they’re five over .500 and 1.5 back of a Wild Card spot. That’s not a team that’s going to sell aggressively. If they spiral out of control from here and are suddenly 3-4 under .500 and 5+ games back of a Wild Card spot in 2-3 weeks, then sure.

Austin Jackon’s Catch In Boston

• Do guys like Santana, Thomas, and Sewald have any trade value? It’s looking like a lost season in Cleveland

Steve Adams

• Santana is still hitting at an average-ish level and is generally beloved in clubhouses. He’s overpaid, but if Cleveland eats some of the money left on his contract, I can see him netting a modest prospect return.I thought the Guards should’ve non-tendered Thomas — said to underscore my low expectations, not pat myself on the back or anything — and even I’m stunned by how far he’s fallen this year. He’s a DFA/release candidate more than a trade candidate.Sewald’s ERA is ugly, but the K%, BB% and SwStr% are all good and we’re talking a small sample of innings. They won’t get a ton, but yeah, he’s tradeable.

Chris

• Baltimore should be all in on Ranger Suarez or Framber Valdez right?

Steve Adams

• I assume this is in reference to free agency this winter? And in that case, yeah, they should be in on that pair and other notable starting pitchers.
• Valdez probably fits them particularly well, since at 32 he’s not going to command more than a five-year deal. (He’d only be the third SP 32 or older to get 6 years in the past decade. Even with a really premium AAV, you’re looking under $200MM. And since the O’s seem to prefer to avoid long-term risk with pitchers (or just … well, anyone), maybe that artificial cap on his contract length is a little more their speed.

Spud

• The Brewers have a surplus of starting pitching (no, really). What type of return would you expect to receive from Nester Cortez?

Steve Adams

• Pretty negligible at this point, given how much time he’s missed. Could still see them listening on Cortes or Quintana, though.

Royal Blue

• Do the royals move one of their starting pitchers for a bat and a possible prospect or does depend on how this week goes whether they are buyers or sellers?

Steve Adams

• I doubt any of the Royals, D-backs, Reds, Twins or Cardinals make a clear decision on their direction until like … July 27-28. (Barring a situation where they go on winning or losing streaks of like 10 games starting right now)

Bucco71

• Will Cherington be motivated to make a splash deal to save his job?  Perhaps moving Keller?

Steve Adams

• I don’t really see how trading Mitch Keller helps save his job. They’re six years into his tenure now. They were supposed to be better than this by now. Trading a homegrown starter who you were able to sign long-term — even if it’s for a nice return — isn’t something that should’ve been on the docket by now.

Jill

• Would Cleveland consider trading Kwan or Clase at the deadline?

Steve Adams

• I’d be more surprised by Kwan, just given the perennial need for outfield help. Clase is signed longer-term, but Cleveland churns out good relievers with such frequency that at a certain point it has to become tempting. His command is also a bit worse this year, although it’s still far better than average and his 16% swinging-strike rate is his best since 2022 so I don’t think too many folks are going to be worried that the stuff/location is maybe marginally less sharp than in 2024.I would still bet against a Clase trade, but teams will be trying and his name is going to bounce around the rumor circuit.

Cubbie Blue

• Offense is super strong. Pitching staff is suspect. Should we gamble on a Sandy Alcantara deal, or throw the kitchen sink at Pit for Skenes?

Steve Adams

• Can throw whatever you want at the Pirates. I will livestream a video of myself eating a pair of my socks if Pittsburgh trades Paul Skenes to the Cubs. (In general, I see less than a 1% chance of Skenes being traded)

Wondering

• I think Detroit needs a high leverage LH reliever for October. Who other than Chapman might be a possibility?

Steve Adams

• There aren’t a ton of obvious lefties available, though some unexpected names always pop up. I imagine they’ll say, “Been there, done that” with regard to Gregory Soto, but others I could see moving…. Hoby Milner, Jalen Beeks, Caleb Ferguson, Steven Matz, Danny Coulombe, Taylor Rogers, Aaron Bummer

PunkRockies

• What kind of market do you think there is realistically for Ryan McMahon? He’s hit better since June after a rough start, and the defense is still there, but you can’t help but think the Rox would have gotten more dealing him last July. Is a team’s top 10 prospect a realistic return?

Steve Adams

• He hit well in May, too. He’s a plus defensive third baseman from whom you can relatively confidently expect 20ish home runs and average-ish (perhaps a bit better) rate stats at the plate. He’s going to strike out a lot, but he’ll walk plenty also.You can look at McMahon as sort of a poor man’s Matt Chapman. And then you remember that Matt Chapman got $151MM beginning with his age-32 season, while McMahon is owed $36MM total for 2+ seasons as of the trade deadline. Next year is his age-31 season.So yeah, there’s surplus value there. “A team’s top-10 prospect” isn’t really a good way to categorize things. The Mariners have nine prospects in Baseball America’s top-100. The Astros, Angels and Rockies all have one.
• Point being…. a good system’s No. 13 prospect might be better than the Astros’ No. 5. Numerical rankings within the confines of one system tell you little, which is why the industry assigns value grades (FV) on the 20-80 scale scouts use to grade individual tools and pitches. That’s the better place to look, and I do think McMahon probably should be able to fetch a 50 or a couple 45 types … basically someone on or not far from the back half of a top-100 list

kc

• any market for Severino or Springs? or other A’s?

Steve Adams

• I can’t see Severino having much value, given that they overpaid to sign him in the first place and he’s now underperformed and has that post-’26 player option. Springs has easy value and should be popular, yeah. Urias and Andujar both could fetch nominal returns if they’re healthy

Drew

• Could Mackenzie Gore bring a Crochet-like return if the Nats decide to reboot the rebuild?

Steve Adams

• He would (or should) bring more than Crochet did. You’re looking at 2.5 years of control to what was (at the time) two of Crochet. Plus Gore has demonstrated he can handle a full starter’s workload in a way that Crochet hadn’t (and really still hasn’t). I don’t think he’ll move, but they’d be justified in asking for a massive return

Clay

• Jose Soriano has put up consistently solid mid-rotation numbers for last season and this one, granted in ’24 he only threw about 113 innings. Do you think the Angels would part with him and what kind of package would it take from SF to bring him to the Bay?

Steve Adams

• I think they should be willing to and won’t be. The Angels seem to perennially delude themselves into thinking they’re far closer than they are, and owner Arte Moreno has resisted this exact type of future-oriented move at so many junctures in the past.I’d absolutely be willing to listen on Soriano if it were my call, but alas, Moreno has yet to offer me the opportunity to make that decision.I’m not hard to get a hold of, Arte. Call me.

Duran

• Is J Duran really on the trade block?

Steve Adams

• Jarren or Jhoan?I’m sure the Red Sox will listen on Jarren but aren’t itching to trade him or anything. He’s floating around more due to the “surplus” of outfielders they have in Boston and because of one early report connecting the Padres to him.Jhoan, I’d be more surprised by. If the Twins are still under .500 or just kind of a Wild Card bubble team, other clubs will try and Minnesota will listen (probably on Griffin Jax, too) — but the asking price would be huge and I’d strongly lean against anything getting donw.
• done.*

Dodgers Fan

• What would it cost us for 3+ months of Adrian Houser?  The guy seems to have found a fountain of youth with the white sox.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Houser is going to command a notable prospect return, nor do I think the Dodgers would target him. They’re only going to be aiming for pitchers who’d start playoff games for them, and that’s not Houser.He’s throwing harder, granted, but the strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are still noticeably worse than average. His sub-2.00 ERA is largely a product of him stranding 85% of the runners he’s allowed to reach base, which is 15 pecentage points above his career level and 13ish above league-average. He’s not going to keep that up, nor is he going to keep seeing only 4% of the fly-balls he yields turn into homers. (His career mark and the league average are both around 12%)

Adam

• If the Pirates did trade Skenes (I know they won’t but humor us here) would they be able to ask for more than the Nats did for Soto?

Steve Adams

• Yes

This Guy Right Here

• Who are the White Sox going to move?

Steve Adams

• Adrian Houser, Aaron Civale, Mike Tauchman. Maybe Steven Wilson. I expect they’ll find a way to trade Robert but the return is going to be middling.

Marty

• If the pirates eat say 15% or 20% of the remaining money owed to Hayes do they Yankees find him more attractive than a Ryan McMahon?

Steve Adams

• I doubt it. Hayes has stopped hitting because of chronic, ongoing back troubles. McMahon is more productive currently. He’s not as good a defender, but you feel better about getting competent to above-average offense out of him.

Your name

• Both Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas have been awful while Michael McGreevy has shown he’s capable of being a back of the rotation starter. Could either Fedde or Mikolas be moved to the bullpen/released since neither will bring back anything in a trade

Steve Adams

• Mikolas was at least pretty serviceable until that absurd six-homer start against the Cubs. But he was never likely to be traded, thanks to his salary and no-trade clause.Fedde had real value in the offseason, and he’s shredded most of that with his strikeout rate disappearing and his command worsening considerably. Another team might take a chance on him to round out the back of the rotation, but the chance for a decent return was back in the offseason and the Cardinals for whatever reason chose not to do it.I wouldn’t say McGreevy has proven anything yet, but he’s more deserving of a rotation spot than Fedde, based on merit, yeah. Fedde has an ERA of almost 6 since his shutout against the Nationals (and rate stats to match it)

Phillie Phanatic

• Phillies need a right-handed Lfer or CFer. Who could that  potentially be? Seems like mostly lefty bats are available.

Steve Adams

• Ramon Laureano, Chas McCormick, Harrison Bader (if the Twins wind up selling short-term guys). Lane Thomas has to be running out of leash in Cleveland, but he’s a change-of-scenery guy at best.

Dick Monfort

• I am the one responsible for the poor performance of the Rockies and the unfairness it causes to the fans of Denver and Colorado. I need to sell the team, don’t I? (Fisher, Nutting, Sternberg…take notice)

Steve Adams

• He doesn’t *need* to, no. But would they be better with a less meddlesome owner who didn’t operate in such insular fashion? Almost certainly, yeah.

Philly Rocks

• Alec Bohm and a prospect to the Rockies for McMahon; who says no?

Steve Adams

• McMahon is signed longer than Bohm is controlled. Rockies won’t (or shouldn’t) be looking to acquire someone with such little club control remaining.

reds reds reds

• could taylor ward be in cincinnati come july 31? cheap salary, breakout season, angels have had interest in chase petty, and could be the rh bat the reds need.

Steve Adams

• I would say Ward’s breakout was in 2022. This year he’s striking out and popping up at career-worst rates and barely keeping an OBP around .300. He’s also making $7.825MM (not *that* cheap, at least for the Reds) and will probably get a raise to $11MM or so next year, perhaps more, depending how the counting stats finish up.I’m not saying the Reds shouldn’t have any interest, but if the Angels asked for Chase Petty, that’d be an easy no for me, even with Petty’s brutal debut performance earlier this season.

Bobby Cox

• Did you see the trade scenarios on ESPN for skenes, acuna, etc. They felt light imo. What did you think?

Steve Adams

• I’ve been asked about all of these, with many suggesting that David Schoenfield’s column constitutes a genuine rumor for something that might happen. It’s an opinion piece designed to generate conversation, which it’s doing, but he’s not saying or reporting that any of Skenes/Acuna/Buxton will be traded.It’s just a thought exercise. I haven’t given much thought to whether the packages feel light or appropriate because it doesn’t really matter. None of the three are going to be traded.

coaches

• Hitting and pitting coaches are usually fired in the off season aren’t they ? It’s hard to find a new one in mid year isn’t it  as decent ones would be under contract ?

Steve Adams

• More common in the offseason or in the last week or two of a season, yeah. But the Rangers swapped out hitting coaches already early in the season.

Cardinals fan

• Where will Arenado be playing in August?

Steve Adams

• Third base, for the Cardinals.

TxDude

• The Rangers offense has looked lost all season. And even most of last season too. Big changes have to coming eventually, right?

Steve Adams

• I mean, they already made big changes. They traded Nate Lowe, brought in Jake Burger and Joc Pederson — all in the name of hitting fastballs more effectively. It didn’t work. They fired their hitting coach and hired Bret Boone. It hasn’t done much.I’m sure larger-scale changes are coming, yes, but they’re made some attempts that haven’t paid off.Adolis Garcia seems like a trade candidate whether the Rangers are in the race or not, since he’s going to be a non-tender candidate after the season and isn’t hitting well for what’s now a second straight season.

Marty

• Why aren’t the twins considered sellers? Looks like they could have some of the best movable assets this deadline.

Steve Adams

• They’re trending that way, but at five games out from a Wild Card spot and with three-plus weeks to play until the deadline, they’re going to keep their options open

Slappy Slapster

• What value do you think Seth Lugo has in trade? Many of the Royal faithful think he would bring a top 100 prospect +. I don’t think so due to his 2026 option.

Steve Adams

• I lean more toward your view of things. The player option/opt-out is pure downside for the acquiring team.

Sir Nerdlington

• What would you expect to be the cost for a Suarez/Gallen trade package? Seems like the Cubs-Snakes line up too well to not make this happen.

Steve Adams

• I don’t really think it’s true that the Cubs specifically line up any better than the Yankees, Tigers, Mariners or several other clubs. Most teams could use another starter, so any team looking at 3B — or just for a bat in general — lines up pretty nicely with the D-backs on that sort of combo

Dave

• If the Rangers are sellers, will they try to move deGrom?

Steve Adams

• He has a full no-trade clause and will be owed $88.3333MM through 2027 after the trade deadline. Most of the teams that can stomach that type of annual salary are CBT payors, several of whom (Mets, Yankees, Dodgers) would owe a 110% tax on the $37.85MM AAV of what remains on his contract.Lots of questions about trading deGrom every week. Doesn’t feel all that feasible to me.

Padres

• What would it cost to get Adolis in left?  Padres could use that slg.

Steve Adams

• Not much. But “use that SLG” is an interesting frame for a player who’s currently slugging .380 with a career-worst .152 ISO. Garcia is popping up more than ever and hitting a lot of pretty harmless fly-outs. He’s more reputation than known commodity right now (hence why he probably won’t be  ALL that hard to pry loose)
• Ok, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, two weekly subscriber-only chats (one with me, one with Anthony) where your odds of getting a question answered are much better, direct Q&A opps with Darragh McDonald, access to our new Trade Deadline Outlook series, access to our Contract Tracker, GM Tracker and our Agency Database, and more. It all starts at $2.99/month.Thanks and enjoy the rest of your week!