The Twins are increasingly leaning toward the sell side of things as the trade deadline looms next week. Minnesota is open to moving rental players and reportedly will at least listen to offers on some of its more appealing and controllable pitchers, though the chances of a trade appear slim. Top starter Joe Ryan and relievers Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax — all under club control through 2027 — have drawn the most attention to date. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports, however, that the asking price on Duran and Jax has been so high that some teams aren’t even spending time contemplating a real run at Ryan, whose price would be even higher. Minnesota has been seeking “at least two top-100-caliber prospects” to part with either Duran or Jax, per Passan.
[Related: Minnesota Twins Trade Deadline Outlook]
It’s a steep ask, though an understandable one. Both Duran and Jax have power arsenals and elite bat-missing ability that’s coupled with good command. Both are affordable. Duran is earning $4.125MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility. Jax is earning $2.365MM.
Since making his debut with the Twins in 2022, Duran has ranked among the game’s elite relievers. The 27-year-old sits north of 100 mph with his fastball and pairs it with an upper-90s sinker/splitter hybrid (“splinker”) that misses bats and piles up grounders. In 230 2/3 big league innings, Duran boasts a 2.46 ERA, 30.8% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 63.7% ground-ball rate and just 0.66 homers per nine innings pitched. He’s sitting on a 1.94 ERA in 46 1/3 frames this season and has 15 saves and a hold in 18 save opportunities this year.
Jax, 30, has a more pedestrian 4.09 ERA due largely to some early home runs but arguably has even more overpowering arrows in his quiver. He doesn’t sit 100 mph like his teammate but averages better than 97 mph and misses more bats. The former third-round pick has set down 36.4% of his opponents on strikes this season and walked only 6.4% of the batters he’s faced. Jax boasts a deep arsenal of six pitches but relies first and foremost on a sweeper and changeup that miss bats at elite levels. Among the 524 big league pitchers with even 10 innings pitched this season, Jax ranks fifth with a 19.4% swinging-strike rate, trailing only Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Mason Miller and Fernando Cruz.
Understandably, the cost to acquire either pitcher is set at a lofty level. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez nonetheless writes that he’s gotten the sense Minnesota will move at least one of the two. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that the two relievers have been heavily scouted by contending clubs in all of their most recent appearances.
As for Ryan, it’d presumably take an even larger offer for the Twins to consider parting with him. The 29-year-old All-Star has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season, working to a 2.63 ERA with a 29.2% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate in 116 1/3 innings. He’s been consistent along the way, holding opponents to two or fewer runs in 15 of 19 starts and averaging better than six innings per start. Ryan is earning just $3MM this season and is owed two more raises in arbitration over the next two offseasons.
An alternative for teams inquiring with the Twins about their bullpen would be 33-year-old Brock Stewart, who’s also controlled through the 2027 season. Stewart has a lengthy injury history but has been excellent since signing a minor league deal with the Twins a few years ago. Injuries have interrupted each of his three seasons with Minnesota, but Stewart has a sparkling 2.38 ERA with a 31.9% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate in 75 2/3 innings dating back to 2023. He’s averaging 96 mph on both his four-seamer and sinker this season and is earning just $870K. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently listed Stewart among his nine under-the-radar bullpen targets for contending clubs.
Ryan would be a nice addition for the Sox but i can’t see a scenario where the Twins don’t ask for one of Anthony or Mayer in return
What about Jax or Jhoan Duran for Jarren Duran and possibly Toole?
I wouldn’t trade Ryan for either one of them unless more is added by Boston.
Of course more would be expected than 1 for 1 swap
Sorry Tolle…fat fingers…
Ryan and Dohran for Mayer, Abreu and a top prospect. That gets it done.
No, no it doesn’t get it done.
Yes, that would get it done. You would just need to lobotomize Derek Falvey, first.
Nimmala and Yeasavage plus whatever else Twins want in exchange for Ryan and Duran. Ross needs to put his nuts on the table this deadline.
Getting Ryan AND Duran is pretty much impossible. I played around on BaseballTradeValues and the only way I could get it to work was including Barger (which I’m not suggesting they do).
I did do a mock of…
Joe Ryan and Danny Coulombe
(Total Value: 71.5)
in exchange for…
Trey Yesavage, Arjun Nimmala, Davis Schneider, Alan Roden and Josh Kasevich
(Total Value: 74.40).
I’d do that trade if I’m the Jays. Not sure if the Twins would.
I’m with you Jeffy. I would do that trade as well. To be clear, when I said whatever else Twins would want, I was thinking about prospects. Addison Barger (aka Allison Burgers) I would classify as untouchable. He’s in beast mode and a future building block.
Yeah, but Ryan is in beast mode as one of the best SPs in MLB. It’d have to hurt to swing a deal for him.
As a Twins fan, the Jays have nowhere near enough to get Duran let alone Duran AND Ryan. That of course is just my opinion so it means nothing. I was just surprised when I looked through the Jays prospect list and how barren it is. The price should be HIGH especially since any team can QO one or both as well after the 2.5 years (if they’re still good, of course). The Dodgers or Mets line up the best, in my opinion. The Mariners would be a decent third choice too. Those would likely be the best places to ship Duran.
I don’t expect the Twins to trade either. They’re too cheap and have too much control left. They both will likely still have similar trade value next year, depending on health/performance as always.
I wouldn’t trade either if I ran the Twins, but one can dream. If we’ve all learned something from past deadlines, there will be some surprises.
Agreed, though the Twins are never part of those surprises so I’d be absolutely shocked (about 100 times more shocked if it were Ryan vs a reliever).
Lmao, those (3) dude you don’t know baseball. The tigers have the best prospect in baseball along with the best starting pitcher. They can trade for any prospect or player they want. They could also trade Jobe who is injured but was just ranked the top pitching prospect in the game a year ago. The top 4 prospects they have will get you more then what the dodgers, Mets, or mariners could offer. Js
Honestly didn’t know the Tigers were looking for RP. I think the Twins could possibly get Rushing (Dodgers) or Ford (Mariners) for Duran. Whether those teams would do that, I don’t know, but Duran has a ton of excess value.
I don’t think the Tigers would top that since topping that would probably be Clark which seems like too much for the Tigers to give up. Briceno doesn’t seem as good as the other catchers and it sounds like he’ll be a 1B instead so I don’t see how the Tigers could willingly offer more.
The Twins would trade Duran for Nimmalla and Yesagave in a heart beat.
I doubt it… what makes you say that
Berrios for SWR and little Austin Martin hasn’t exactly worked out
for either club really…probably better for the Twins…bc they were able to facilitate Pablo Lopez this way
How didn’t it work out for the jays?
Interesting that BOTH Jax & Duran recently BLEW Games.
They did that last year too. That’s why they fell out of the playoffs. The bullpen couldn’t hold games.
The Twins offense is so unbelievably bad dating back to August of last year that the bullpen had to protect one run leads night after night. Even the best bullpens can’t hold in that scenario.
(I think) Eno and DVR of the Rates and Barrels podcast brought up the possibility of a team getting Jax and then next trying him again as a starter next year. It’s an interesting idea. If he mostly ditches the fastball and gives it a try, it might work.
That doesn’t feel like such a ridiculously high asking price for Duran or Jax that it would scare me off inquiring about Ryan. There’s a wide range of value in top 100 prospects. So if it’s more like two top 50 guys for a reliever, then I’d get a little gun shy. But I would’ve expected the price on Ryan to be exorbitant before hearing that the Twins are asking for a lot for their dominant late inning arms with multiple years of control.
Are you a twins fan?
I am mostly a Blue Jays fan.
Prospect hugging FOs crying to the press the past 2+ offseasons and trade deadlines. Nothing new. Only the trade of Crochet has released MLB death grip on upper tier prospects.
The real issue is buyers thinking trade market is a loophole to get good pitchers for cheap meh prospects and that media will shame sellers. No one would sign FA arms for big bucks if you could get low cost ones for scraps.
Is there a mailbag or anything tomorrow? I’m curious what the realistic cost would be for the Cubs to get Ryan.
Good question, but Owen Cassie or Ballesteros (or both) would probably be part of that conversation. After that, who knows, but the asking price would be large due to Ryan being under team control through 2027.
Would Mick Abel, Max Lazar, Alex McFarlane, Aroon Escobar & Johan Rojas be enough to get Duran, Jax & Bader – Twins fans? Or would it have to be Painter in lieu of Abel? Because that’s the trade my Phillies need to make. You kinda owe us one on Kody Clemens haha.
For me, it’s an easy no. I wouldn’t even trade one of Duran or Jax for that. It’s quantity, no quality.
Abel isn’t good. The amount of K’s he gets keeps decreasing. He walks a ton too. Zero interest in Lazar. McFarlane has the same problem as Abel. Escobar is at least okay, but as a third player received. Rojas has zero power, as a throw in, sure.
So my opinion, two or three of those players need to be swapped out for two or three much better players
I’ve stopped laughing now. To me your assessment of minor league talent is laughable.
Results matter to me. I have no problem admitting that.
I don’t think a 25 K% combined with a 12 BB% is good. Those are Abel’s combined AAA stats. How many guys with a BB% above 9 or 10 have become a number 3 starter or better? Those numbers, nine times out of 10, just get worse in the majors.
McFarlane has a 23 K% and 11 BB% in A+.
For comparison, Joe Ryan put up a 35 K% and 4 BB% in A+ and 40+ K%, 5 BB% in AAA. He dominated and barely cracked the top 100 twice.
Most of these guys fail, especially when they are already having a hard time getting outs in the minors. I think the failure rate of top 100 prospects is something like 70-80%.
For someone like Duran, I think the Twins should be able to get one prospect in the 25-50 range and one in the 80-100 range. I don’t think that’s a crazy ask for a guy with 2.5 more years and the ability to be QO’d. I’m not that tied up in the top 100 either, as I said, Joe Ryan was barely one and I’d take 100 more of him. Abel is nowhere near the talent that Ryan was or is.
Would the Twins trade Joe Ryan to the Red Sox for a package that includes Ja Duran or Abreu, and 2 prospects out of Campbell,J.Garcia,Tolle and Arias ?? What would it take??
I think Ryan for Duran and a borderline or barely top 100 prospect would be fair to the Twins (or a slight overpay). Duran isn’t the guy he was from 2024, but still valuable (if you meant Duran plus two of those listed that is a big overpay). I don’t think either team trades their guy though.
Abreu plus two of the others feels like a big overpay too. I love Ryan but that seems like A LOT so I would do that in a heartbeat if I were the Twins. Likely means the Sox would never offer it.
T33
Your answer surprises me. I’m a big fan of Duran,but the Sox dealing from a position of strength (outfield )for a legit # 1 in Ryan. I would hope the Sox would do it. It’s all about pitching. I was not sure if it was enough. A rotation with Crochet & Ryan at the top is very strong.
Like anyone, I’m just guessing. Just a fan who knows nothing.
Duran is a 2-3 WAR player with one more year of control than Ryan (I think). Ryan is a 3-4 WAR player so their value is already pretty close which is why I think someone at the backend of the top 100 would be enough.
Abreu is a 2 WAR guy (maybe better? Not sure) with like four more years of control. Then you listed four guys who are or were top 100 prospects and said to pick two.
I know pitchers have a premium on them but that just seems like a lot to me
Those huge packages with 3 big league players aren’t even worth discussing. Teams generally don’t trade 3 big leaguers in one trade. Always better to piece them out. Hard to imagine a team has 5 prospects you like that much to give up 3 mlb players.
LOL on the Clemens comment!! He has definitely stepped up for us in big situations. In all seriousness though, I think Painter would have to be part of the deal.
These “rumors” happen every year. And just like last season we won’t see much happening from the Twinkies.
Ryan will get a team friendly extention I believe. Jax would be better suited to try at starter. Which is what he wants.
Look at what the Padres gave up to get Tanner Scott last year for half a season. If you want Duran or Jax, times that return by 3. That gets you in the ballpark.