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Jhoan Duran

Latest On Twins’ Trade Endeavors

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The Twins are known to be working with little to no financial flexibility as the deadline approaches, as ownership’s big-picture revenue concerns continue to limit how much new money the front office can add.  RosterResource projects Minnesota’s payroll at roughly $127.8MM, as offseason cuts have already significant reduced spending from the team’s $158.8MM payroll from 2023.

Exchanging salaries might be the Twins’ most logical way of adding some help to their roster, and with this in mind, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that “the Twins have listened to offers” from other teams about such controllable players as closer Jhoan Duran, and more obvious trade candidates like pending free agents Max Kepler or Manuel Margot.

Of course, listening to offers is a long way off from actively shopping players or having any particular inclination to move them, as Hayes notes that “the cost for Kepler and Duran is said to be extremely high.”  It can be assumed that Margot’s price tag is significantly lower, which isn’t surprising for a backup outfielder hitting .243/.302/.341 over 235 plate appearances this season.  Margot has roughly $1.3MM still owed on the Twins’ $4MM share of his overall $10MM salary for 2024, as the Dodgers are covering the other $6MM as per the terms of the February trade that brought Margot to the Twin Cities.

Kepler’s name has popped up in trade talks several times over the years, and he has about $3.33MM left on his $10MM salary for the 2024 season.  Kepler is a trickier player for Minnesota to replace since he is the primary right fielder and a solid defender, though he hasn’t traditionally had much success against left-handed pitching.  Even against righties, Kepler is hitting a modest .258/.317/.403 in 244 PA this season, so he doesn’t exactly offer a big splits advantage.

With this in mind, it seems perhaps a little odd that the Twins want an “extremely high” return for rental player like Kepler.  However, the Twins likely aren’t keen to substantially diminish their outfield depth given how many injuries the team has already fought through this year, and moving Kepler would then present Minnesota with another challenge in finding a replacement.

Duran is a different story altogether as a trade candidate.  For a team with a limited payroll, Duran is a particularly huge asset since he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this winter, and he is under team control through the 2027 season.  Trading the closer therefore wouldn’t provide any help to Minnesota’s financial concerns, unless perhaps the Twins attached a larger contract along with Duran as part of a trade package.  That tactic, however, would lessen the value of one of the Twins’ top trade chips, in terms of what the team would receive in terms of an on-field return.

In another report earlier tonight, Hayes wrote that the Twins had some talks with the Dodgers about Duran, but wanted players who could help this season, rather than the Dodgers’ preferred offer of prospects.  Trading a closer might be simpler for a team just looking to cut payroll, yet the Twins are trying to thread the needle by both limiting spending and remaining competitive, as the team is in possession of an AL wild card spot and they’re 5.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

NL West Notes: Walker, Duran, Dodgers, Padres, Kikuchi

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Christian Walker left tonight’s game with what the Diamondbacks described as left oblique tightness.  It isn’t clear when the injury occurred, though Walker struck out swinging during a second-inning at-bat, and Kevin Newman then took over Walker’s spot at first base in the top of the fourth.  More will be known about the severity of the injury once Walker undergoes tests, but any sort of oblique issue might hint at a trip to the injured list for the star first baseman.

Losing Walker for any stretch of time would deal a heavy blow to Arizona’s playoff hopes, given his all-around importance to the lineup.  Walker is hitting .254/.338/.476 with 23 home runs over 461 plate appearances, and delivering his usual excellent glovework at first base.  Beyond what an IL stay might do to the Diamondbacks’ chances in the pennant race, an extended absence also wouldn’t help Walker’s platform for a big free agent contract, as he is scheduled to hit the open market at season’s end.  This sudden uncertainty over Walker’s status is an unwelcome wrinkle for the D’Backs in advance of tomorrow’s trade deadline, as the team was planning to focus on pitching rather than any significant position-player adds.

More from around the NL West…

  • The Dodgers inquired about Jhoan Duran’s availability but couldn’t find a match with the Twins, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports (links to X).  Unsurprisingly, Minnesota wanted a ton in exchange for a closer who is controlled through the 2027 season, and Hayes writes that the Twins are specifically looking for players who can help them win immediately.  Los Angeles, by contrast, was only interested in moving prospects rather than MLB-ready talent.  As it happened, the Dodgers did move one young player with big league experience as part of a larger trade to obtain relief pitching today, as Miguel Vargas and two prospects were sent to the White Sox as part of the three-team deal with the Sox and Cardinals that brought Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman to Los Angeles.
  • Before the Blue Jays traded Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros earlier tonight, the Dodgers and Padres were among the teams showing interest in the left-hander, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).  Both NL West teams are known to be looking for starting pitching help, and it’s probably safe to assume that basically any club with rotation needs at least called the Jays about a clear trade candidate like Kikuchi.

Twins Designate Matt Bowman For Assignment

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The Twins announced that right-hander Jhoan Duran has been reinstated from the injured list, as had been reported on earlier this week. In a corresponding move, right-hander Matt Bowman has been designated for assignment.

Bowman, 33 next month, signed a minor league deal with the Twins in the offseason. He was added to the 40-man roster just over two weeks ago, after throwing six scoreless frames in Triple-A, and has since pitched 7 2/3 innings over five appearances in the majors.

He only allowed two earned runs in that time, which is why his earned run average looks nice right now at 2.35. However, the underlying metrics have been less impressive. He has six strikeouts and four walks, leading to respective rates of 19.4% and 12.9% thus far. His 57.9% ground ball rate is strong but he wasn’t going to maintain a .056 batting average on balls in play nor a 90.9% strand rate. That’s why his 5.64 FIP and 4.38 SIERA are much higher than his ERA in this small sample.

Since Bowman is out of options, the Twins had to remove him from the 40-man roster entirely in order to open an active roster spot for Duran. They will now have one week to trade Bowman or pass him through waivers. If the latter scenario were to come to pass, he has over three years of service time, giving him the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency instead. However, he doesn’t have five years of service, meaning he would have to forfeit the remainder of this $925K salary to return to the open market.

Elbow injuries, including Tommy John surgery, prevented Bowman from pitching in official game action from 2020 to 2022. He was able to return to the mound last year, tossing 58 2/3 innings for the Triple-A club of the Yankees with a 3.99 ERA. He struck out 22.6% of batters faced in that time while giving out walks at an 11.7% rate and getting grounders at an 51.9% clip. He also tossed four innings for the Yanks in the majors but was outrighted after the season, which allowed him to sign with the Twins.

Twins Notes: Correa, Martin, Duran, Sands

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The Twins announced Monday that they’ve reinstated shortstop Carlos Correa from the 10-day injured list. Infielder/outfielder Austin Martin was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding move. Correa wound up missing just over two weeks with what was originally announced a a likely oblique strain but was reclassified as a more mild intercostal strain after he underwent an MRI.

It’s a boon for an already-surging Twins lineup that has rattled off seven straight wins. Strength of schedule has been a big part of that, as the Twins are coming off sweeps of the White Sox and Angels (and are now in Chicago for another three-game set against the South Siders). Correa hit .306/.432/.444 with a homer and two doubles in 44 trips to the plate before sustaining the injury. He’ll reclaim his everyday shortstop role and a slot near the heart of the Twins’ batting order.

Correa’s return brings an end to the first big league stint for the 25-year-old Martin, who handled himself well for a couple weeks before falling into a 3-for-21 slump that dragged his batting line down to .226/.294/.371. The former No. 5 overall pick showed strong contact skills (17.6% strikeout rate) and defensive versatility with time at each of second base, left field and center field.

Martin is in the first of three option years and figures to be back in the big leagues before too long. He’s outplayed struggling veterans Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot, but both have lengthy track records that will earn them some more leash to right the ship. Jettisoning either instead of Martin would surely have depleted the organization’s depth, as both could reject minor league assignments and become free agents once their contracts cleared waivers.

Correa isn’t the only key piece expected to return to the Twins before long. Closer Jhoan Duran has made a pair of rehab outings in St. Paul and was sharp in his most recent one. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that Minnesota’s flamethrowing righty tossed a clean inning with two strikeouts and induced whiffs on six of eight swings against him Saturday, topping out at 102.9 mph with his heater.

Duran, 26, has established himself as one of the game’s premier relievers since debuting in 2022. He’s been on the injured list all season due to an oblique strain but touts a 2.15 ERA 33.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 63.4% ground-ball rate in 130 big league innings. He’s saved 35 games for the Twins and picked up another 19 holds since cracking the Opening Day roster as a rookie back in ’22.

Duran’s return will only strengthen a Minnesota bullpen that ranks third in MLB with a 2.62 earned run average. Twins relievers are also second in strikeout rate at 29.8%, 12th in walk rate at 9.2%, fourth in FIP at 3.40 and second in SIERA at 2.98. Former starter Cole Sands has been a big part of that, turning in 13 1/3 innings (second among Twins relievers) with a 1.35 ERA, 36.5% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate.

It’s an incredible turnaround for Sands, who entered the year with a 4.99 ERA in 52 1/3 big league frames. He’s seen his average fastball climb from 93.7 mph last year to 95 mph in 2024, and his newly implemented cutter has been excellent. Opponents don’t yet have a hit against Sands’ four-seamer this season.

Sands’ success, history as a starter and the current state of the rotation — Anthony DeSclafani out for the season, Louie Varland optioned to Triple-A after struggling — prompted Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic to ask president of baseball ops Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli about the possibility of stretching Sands back out as a starter. Neither wholly discounted the possibility, though Falvey noted how well Sands has been pitching in a relief capacity and emphasized that if things reach that point, the Twins will need to “do it thoughtfully” because midseason role changes can be particularly tricky.

As things stand, the Twins are going with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and rookie Simeon Woods Richardson in the rotation. Ober and Paddack have each had one nightmare start where they were tagged for eight runs but have been otherwise sharp. Woods Richardson has made just two starts but flashed improved velocity while holding the Tigers and White Sox to a combined three runs in 11 innings with an 11-to-2 K/BB ratio.

The Twins are without DeSclafani and minor league lefty Brent Headrick, their likely next man up on the rotation depth chart, as he’s on the minor league 60-day IL due to a forearm strain. Further injuries could push them to more strongly consider a starting role for Sands, but Minnesota could also look outside the organization at some point if the depth continues to be tested. Falvey downplayed that possibility to Gleeman, but it’s worth mentioning that the Twins went that route with Dallas Keuchel last year and wound up getting six starts out of him down the stretch.

Twins Notes: Lewis, Duran, Kepler

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Twins fans received a positive update regarding injured third baseman Royce Lewis today with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noting that, per Minnesota head trainer Nick Paparesta, Lewis has resumed baseball activity and is “headed in the right direction,” with the start of a run progression on the horizon late next week.

It’s great news for the soon to be 25-year-old, who suffered what was termed a “severe” quad strain on Opening Day. Long regarded as one of the most exciting young talents in baseball, the first overall pick of the 2017 draft has done nothing but hit throughout his major league career with a .313/.369/.564 slash line since he made his debut back in 2022. That’s good for a sensational wRC+ of 159, but Lewis has been limited to just 71 games in the big leagues to this point in his career by a myriad of injuries, including torn ACLs in both 2021 and 2022.

While its easy to be pessimistic about Lewis’s health given his lengthy injury history, the fact that he’s already resumed baseball activities is heartening news given the fact that Lewis was initially expected to be shut down for an entire month before being re-evaluated. That would seemingly put him more than a week ahead of schedule, making a return as soon as sometime in the middle of next month a realistic target for the youngster.

Adding Lewis’s bat back to the lineup would surely provide a huge boost for Minnesota, as the club has scuffled to a 7-12 record in the early going this season while posting a collective wRC+ of just 78, good for bottom three in the majors. If Lewis were to return and take over some of the at-bats currently being offered to struggling veterans Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro, it could help transform the lineup and provide a spark to a team that’s already seven games back of the red hot Guardians for the AL Central crown early in the 2024 campaign.

Lewis isn’t the only key Twins player who could be gearing up for a return in the near future, however. Gleeman also notes that closer Jhoan Duran continued his rehab from an oblique strain with a 21-pitch session against live hitters yesterday. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Gleeman) following the session that Duran looked like he was “just about ready” to face hitters in real games. Gleeman went on to add that Duran is expected to be cleared for a rehab assignment in the near future, and that the righty flamethrower could return to the big league club before the end of April despite initial concerns that he would be sidelined into next month.

Should Duran return to the big league club in short order, it would provide a major boost to a Twins bullpen that has largely handled itself well in his absence. While he’s yet to make an appearance this season, Duran has been among the most dominant relief arms in the sport since making his debut back in 2022 with a 2.15 ERA (191 ERA+) and a 2.85 FIP in 130 innings of work over the past two seasons. He stepped into the closer role for the club last year and performed admirably, picking up 27 saves in 32 chances. Griffin Jax has acted as the club’s top option in the ninth inning while Duran has been shelved.

Gleeman goes on to suggest that while Duran could return before the end of the month, outfielder Max Kepler figures to rejoin the club even sooner than that. Kepler was placed on the IL earlier this month due to a right knee contusion after fouling a ball off his knee on Opening Day but could be nearing a return, with Baldelli suggesting that Kepler is “close” to being ready to return and Gleeman indicating he could be back in the lineup for Minnesota as soon as Sunday.

Kepler scuffled badly prior to his stint on the shelf, going 1-for-20 with a walk to open the season, but was a key cog in the club’s lineup last year as he slashed a solid .260/.332/.484 while playing strong defense in right field. With Kepler out of the lineup, the Twins have been relying on a mix of Trevor Larnach, Manuel Margot, and Austin Martin to cover the outfield corners in his absence with Byron Buxton entrenched in center field.

Twins Notes: Wallner, Larnach, Correa, Duran

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The Twins shuffled their outfield mix this afternoon, optioning Matt Wallner to Triple-A St. Paul while recalling Trevor Larnach.(Declan Goff of SKOR North was first to report the move.) Larnach got the nod in left field for tonight’s loss to the Orioles, going 1-4 in his season debut.

Wallner has started the season in a massive slump, striking out in 17 of his first 33 trips to the plate. The Southern Miss product was a productive left-handed bat for the Twins last year, turning in a .249/.370/.507 line with 14 homers through 254 plate appearances. That came with a fair share of whiffs, but last season’s 31.5% strikeout rate is still well lower than the clip at which Wallner has fanned through this year’s first couple weeks.

Between Wallner’s frigid start and Max Kepler’s injured list stint, Larnach could get another chance to carve out a spot in the Minnesota outfield. The former first-round pick has gotten scattered MLB looks going back to 2021. Elevated strikeout rates have prevented him from truly establishing himself. Larnach hit at a roughly league average level (.222/.315/.385) in nearly 700 trips between 2021-23. He nevertheless could be in line for looks against right-handed pitching as a lefty complement to right-handed hitters Austin Martin and Manuel Margot.

Kepler is one of a trio of key lineup pieces on the injured list. The Twins have been without Royce Lewis since Opening Day, while Carlos Correa landed on the shelf late last week. Minnesota initially announced Correa’s injury as an oblique strain before revising the diagnosis to a right intercostal strain. In an appearance on MLB Network radio this afternoon (X link), manager Rocco Baldelli said the Twins would wait for Correa’s symptoms to abate before formulating a specific timeline for his return. Baldelli reiterated that the strain is mild, although he noted that could still lead to an absence of a few weeks.. Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer are handling shortstop with Correa on the shelf.

Injuries have also been a factor on the pitching side, particularly in the bullpen. The Twins have been without star closer Jhoan Duran thus far as he works back from a Spring Training oblique issue. The power righty is making progress toward a return. As reflected on the MLB.com injury tracker, Duran has worked through a pair of bullpen sessions in recent days and is slated to throw to hitters for the first time on Friday.

Duran has been among the most dominant pitchers in the sport since making his 2022 debut. He owns a 2.15 ERA in 130 big league innings, pairing a stellar 33.2% strikeout rate with an otherworldly 63.4% grounder percentage. The 26-year-old has as electrifying an arsenal as anyone, backing a triple-digit heater with an elite curve and an absurd power splitter that averaged north of 98 MPH last season.

Jhoan Duran, Caleb Thielbar, Anthony DeSclafani To Begin Season On Injured List

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1:39pm: There’s concern that DeSclafani could require season-ending surgery, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Nightengale and others.

1:00pm: Twins closer Jhoan Duran, lefty reliever Caleb Thielbar, and rotation hopeful Anthony DeSclafani will open the season on the 15-day injured list, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Duran is dealing with a “moderate” oblique strain, while Thielbar will head to the IL with a strained hamstring. DeSclafani has a more ominous forearm strain and is slated to meet with Dr. Keith Meister for further evaluation.

Beyond that trio of surefire big leaguers, the Twins will also see prospect Matt Canterino and roster hopeful Zack Weiss start on the injured list, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Canterino, long one of the organization’s most promising arms, will be on the Triple-A injured list after suffering a subscapular strain in his shoulder. Weiss, a waiver claim out of the Red Sox organization, has been rehabbing a teres major strain and will be on the major league injured list.

Losing Duran even for a short spell is painful for the Twins, given the flamethrower’s emergence as one of MLB’s premier relievers. Since making his big league debut on Opening Day 2022, Duran has pitched 130 innings of 2.15 ERA ball with 35 saves, 19 holds, a 33.2% strikeout rate, a 7.9% walk rate and a massive 63.4% ground-ball rate. He averaged a ludicrous 101.8 mph on his heater last season and 98.4 mph with his splitter/sinker hybrid (“splinker”). The good news for the Twins is that a moderate strain shouldn’t result in excessively lengthy absence, but even Grade 1 strains have been known to sideline players for upwards of a month. The team hasn’t formally announced a timetable for Duran’s expected return just yet.

Wit Duran sidelined, it’ll likely fall to Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart to handle save situations early in the season. Jax has become one of Duran’s top setup men in recent years and offers an above-average strikeout rate and strong command of a slider-heavy arsenal. Stewart returned from a yearslong MLB absence and multiple arm surgeries brandishing an upper-90s cutter that helped him punch out nearly 36% of his opponents while pitching to a 0.65 ERA in 27 2/3 innings for the Twins last saeson.

The 37-year-old Thielbar has flown under the radar since returning to affiliated ball following a five-year absence in 2020, but he’s quietly been one of the team’s most important relievers in that time. Over the past four seasons, the Minnesota native has given his hometown club 174 innings of 3.21 ERA ball, piling up 45 holds while punching out 30.2% of his opponents against a 7.4% walk rate. He struggled against right-handers last season, yielding a .258/.319/.621 batting line, but Thielbar didn’t have glaring struggles against righties from 2020-22. As with Duran, they’ll hope for a relatively brief absence, but the team hasn’t given any specifics on how long he’s expected to miss just yet.

Word of DeSclafani’s injury is the most concerning of the three. Acquired from the Mariners (who’d picked him up from the Giants previously) as part of the trade sending Jorge Polanco to Seattle, DeSclafani had been in the running to open the season as the Twins’ fifth starter. He was slowed early in camp by some discomfort and is now headed for evaluation with one of the sport’s more notable surgeons.

DeSclafani has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. He missed the entire 2017 season with a UCL sprain that never required surgery, pitched a mostly healthy year in 2018 and enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career with the Reds in 2019. A teres major strain hobbled him in 2020 and limited him to 33 2/3 innings of 7.22 ERA ball, however. DeSclafani bounced back with a bit 2021 season in San Francisco, working 167 2/3 frames of 3.17 ERA ball over a mostly full slate of 31 starts.

DeSclafani re-signed in San Francisco on a three-year, $36MM deal that hasn’t at all gone according to plan. An ankle injury that eventually required surgery limited him to 19 frames in 2022. Shoulder fatigue and a pair of flexor strains capped him at 99 2/3 frames in 2023. He’ll now be slowed to begin the 2024 season, though a timeline won’t be known until that appointment with Dr. Meister has taken place.

The Twins are only the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s $12MM salary. The Giants sent $6MM to the Mariners in their original trade involving DeSclafani, and the M’s sent that plus another $2MM to Minnesota in the Polanco swap. With DeSclafani headed to the injured list, right-hander Louie Varland should have the fifth spot in the rotation all but locked up. He’ll follow Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober in what should be a solid Twins staff if everyone can remain healthy. However, the Twins will undoubtedly feel the losses of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, particularly now with their top depth option shelved. In the event of additional pitching injuries, Minnesota would likely turn to one of Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick or yet-to-debut top prospect David Festa.

As for the others, Canterino is still working his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Injuries have regularly slowed him since being selected in the second round of the 2019 draft. Between shaky health and the scrapped 2020 minor league season, he’s still pitched only 85 professional innings. They’ve been excellent — 1.48 ERA, 39.2% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate — but his persistent injury troubles have undercut his considerable upside. As for Weiss, he’s pitched just 27 1/3 MLB frames but has a history of strong strikeout totals in the minors. He could be a bullpen option for the Twins at some point, but for now he’ll collect MLB service and pay while rehabbing. For a 32-year-old with just 91 days of big league service to this point in his career, that’s not insignificant.

It seems unlikely that the Twins will go outside the organization to boost their depth — at least in term of significant salary additions. Owner Joe Pohlad all but declared his team out on top names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery earlier in camp when stating that his team was not going to “go out and spend $30MM on a player right now.” The Twins shocked baseball with a pair of Carlos Correa signings that came together under similar circumstances, but it doesn’t seem there’s another splash of that magnitude up their sleeves. Minnesota was reportedly interested in Michael Lorenzen earlier in the offseason, so it’s possible they could still circle back on that front. More likely is that they’ll just ride things out with internal options, perhaps adding a veteran on a minor league deal. A particularly lengthy absence for DeSclafani could create some extra urgency, so the results of his evaluation are worth tracking with a close eye for Twins fans.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, No. 4: Twins Get Baseball’s Hardest-Throwing Reliever

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6 and No. 5. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 4…

The 2018 season marked the end of an era in Minnesota. Former No. 1 overall pick, six-time All-Star, three-time batting champion and American League MVP Joe Mauer was playing out the final season of his contract and of his career. That $184MM deal didn’t go at all as hoped, as a series of concussions forced Mauer from behind the plate to first base and surely contributed to a decline at the plate as well. The Twins hoped to bolster the roster with a series of what looked to be solid veteran pickups in the 2017-18 offseason, adding veterans Addison Reed, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Zach Duke, Logan Morrison and Fernando Rodney via free agency and trade.

Any hopes of contending were dashed with a catastrophic start to the season, however. Minnesota started out with a solid 8-5 showing to begin the year but dropped 11 of the next 12 games, falling all the way to 9-16 on just May 1. By the time July rolled around, Minnesota was 10 games under .500 and nine games out of first place in the division.

Unsurprisingly, as the deadline approached, the Twins took the general position of sellers. Veterans Lynn, Brian Dozier and Ryan Pressly were traded away. Both Lynn and Dozier were rental players, but the returns on those deals proved negligible before long, and they were never under consideration for this series. There was one more veteran on an expiring contract that the Twins traded away, however: utilityman Eduardo Escobar.

The affable switch-hitter, then 29 years old, was in the midst of a career-best season at the plate. The D-backs, needing an upgrade in the infield and eyeing Escobar’s .274/.338/.514 batting line and 15 homers, put together a package of three players that won the bidding for Escobar: 19-year-old outfielder Gabriel Maciel, 22-year-old outfielder Ernie De La Trinidad … and a 20-year-old righty named Jhoan Duran. Given the ages of the players acquired, the Twins knew this was a long-term play at best. Only De La Trinidad, the “third” piece in the deal, was anywhere close to contributing in the Majors, and even he was just in A-ball at the time of the trade.

The D-backs got what they were hoping for out of Escobar — and then some. He slashed a solid .268/.327/.444 in Arizona following the trade but also enjoyed his time there to the point that he opted to forgo a trip to the open market in favor of a three-year, $21MM extension just days before he was slated to officially become a free agent.

Escobar was again quite good with the Diamondbacks in 2019, popping a career-high 35 home runs, 29 doubles and an MLB-best 10 triples in what’s now commonly referenced as the juiced-ball season. He struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign but rebounded nicely in 2021 — earning the lone All-Star appearance of his career to date. The D-backs were out of contention themselves in ’21 and traded Escobar to the Brewers for catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel and infielder/outfielder Alberto Ciprian. Hummel has since been flipped to the Mariners in exchange for oft-injured former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.

Looking at the Twins’ side of the deal — just as with No. 7 entry Alex Lange and the Tigers, it’s taken a few years for the results to manifest. However, the Twins have to be thrilled with Duran’s emergence as a premium reliever. The flamethrowing righty is a human highlight reel thanks to a heater that can run up to 104 mph and a splitter/sinker hybrid (“splinker”) that averages 99.1 mph and regularly crosses the plate at triple-digit velocities. Unlike many of his flamethrowing counterparts, Duran has also shown strong command. This year’s walk rate is higher than his stellar rookie campaign, but overall Duran has walked a better-than-average 7.7% of his big league opponents.

Since making his debut with the Twins early last season, Duran owns a superlative 1.75 ERA with a 33.8% strikeout rate, that 7.7% walk rate and a massive 62.6% ground-ball rate. He’s baseball’s hardest-throwing reliever and ranks at or near the top of leaderboards in opponents’ chase rate, swinging-strike rate and “expected” batting average and wOBA (per Statcast). He’s tallied 18 holds and moved into the primary closer role for Minnesota, adding 16 saves since being given the lion’s share of opportunities.

Rather quickly, Duran has thrust himself into the conversation for baseball’s best reliever. He ranks sixth among all qualified MLB relievers in ERA dating back to the beginning of the 2022 season. His strikeout rate sits ninth in that same group, and his K-BB% is 13th. Only Clay Holmes and Andre Pallante have induced ground-balls at a higher rate. Only Edwin Diaz, Andres Munoz and the previously mentioned Lange induce swinging strikes at a higher rate than Duran’s 18.2%, and only six relievers have induced chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a higher clip than Duran’s 40.3%.

Duran is the only one of the three prospects acquired for Escobar who’s panned out, but he’s panned out in a massive way and is under club control all the way through the 2027 season. Neither Maciel nor De La Trinidad is in the Twins organization anymore — and neither even climbed as high as the Triple-A level in Minnesota’s system. Had either amounted to even a fourth outfielder at the big league level, the Escobar trade could well rank even higher in this series.

Instead, it can largely be viewed as a win for both clubs, even if the Snakes would surely love to have Duran in their bullpen at present. The D-backs got a productive couple months from Escobar, extended him for three more years at a reasonable rate, got some good production from him and eventually traded him for more minor league talent. The Twins keyed in on a series of high-upside but high-risk prospects rather than lower-upside players who might’ve been closer to the big leagues. We regularly see teams acquire low-level position players with loud tools or low-level pitchers with huge arms in rental trades. The success rate on players who are that far from the Majors is understandably quite a bit lower — but the Twins’ acquisition of Duran is the exact type of jackpot all teams are trying to hit in these scenarios.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Falvey: Bullpen Upgrades “Not A Priority”

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The Twins have been active this offseason, re-signing Carlos Correa while bringing in new faces such as Pablo López, Joey Gallo, Christian Vázquez, Michael A. Taylor and Kyle Farmer. Things have been relatively quiet in terms of the bullpen, however, and it doesn’t seem as though that’s going to change in the near future. The club’s president of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that a significant bullpen addition it isn’t a pressing concern right now. “If we were to do anything at this point, it would likely be to add depth in the middle [innings],” Falvey said. “We’ll keep an open mind, but [relief pitching is] not a priority.”

Last year, the club’s relief corps was firmly in the middle of the pack. Their collective 3.84 ERA was tied for 15th among the 30 teams in the league, while their 3.85 FIP was 14th, their 3.79 xFIP 10th and their 3.50 SIERA ninth. That group also took a hit when deadline acquisition Michael Fulmer reached free agency, though he remains unsigned.

It seems Falvey and the other decision makers in Minnesota have a lot of faith in their internal options. Jorge López was acquired from the Orioles at the deadline last year but still has two remaining years of club control. “We did our bullpen shopping at the [trade] deadline last year by adding some depth, adding Jorge [López],” Falvey said. After many years of mediocre performance as a starter, López converted to a bullpen role full-time in 2022 to great results. In 44 appearances for the O’s, he posted a 1.68 ERA while getting grounders at a 60% clip, striking out 27.6% of batters faced and walking 8.7%. Unfortunately, he didn’t maintain that pace after the trade, with a 4.37 ERA, 53.7% grounder rate, 17.6% strikeout rate and 13.7% walk rate as a Twin.

López will be looking for a bounceback after that frustrating finish to his 2022 campaign, though the club also has other intriguing names in the mix that could step up. Jhoan Durán was primarily a starter in the minors but cracked the majors last year in a relief role and utterly dominated. He tossed 67 2/3 innings over 57 appearances with a 1.86 ERA, getting grounders at a 61% clip while striking out 33.5% of opponents and walking just 6% of them. “He adapted to a new role, at the highest level, faster than we could have hoped,” Falvey said.

As for others in the mix that they’re encouraged by, Falvey had this to say: “We watched Griffin Jax develop into someone we can rely on. What Jovani Moran did the last month of the season, it’s something he can really build upon.” Jax also moved from a starter to a reliever in 2022, and while he didn’t match Durán’s results, he still did well. With 65 appearances last year, he finished the year with a 3.36 ERA, 47.3% ground ball rate, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. Moran, meanwhile, put up a 2.21 ERA in 40 2/3 innings, keeping the ball on the ground at a 48.9% pace, while striking out 32.9% of batters faced, though he did walk 11% of them.

Though Falvey admits they might still make a small addition, it seems they feel they already have the high-leverage arms they need. “We feel like we have the eighth and ninth innings covered,” he says. Other relievers likely to be in the club’s bullpen include Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Alcalá and Trevor Megill.

Roster Notes: Twins, Marlins, Pirates, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies

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With the season just a few days away, roster decisions around the game continue to trickle in. We’ll round up some notable non 40-man roster decisions here.

    • Twins pitching prospect Jhoan Duran has made the Opening Day roster, per a club announcement. He’ll initially work out of the bullpen. Ranked the #9 prospect in the Minnesota organization by Baseball America, Duran draws praise for an upper-90s fastball and a power splitter that have helped him run plus strikeout rates throughout his minor league career.
    • The Marlins have informed outfielder Roman Quinn he will not make the Opening Day roster, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (Twitter link). It comes as a bit of a surprise, as Quinn had seemed the favorite for a fourth outfield role after the Fish released Delino DeShields Jr. over the weekend. Presumably, that job will fall to utilityman Jon Berti early on.
    • Infield prospect Diego Castillo has made the Pirates’ Opening Day roster, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Castillo, acquired in the trade that sent righty Clay Holmes to the Yankees, will make his big league debut the first time he gets into a game.
    • The Yankees announced they’ve reassigned outfielder Ender Inciarte and left-hander Manny Bañuelos to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Inciarte has an opt-out clause in his minor league deal and tells ESPN’s Marly Rivera he hasn’t yet decided whether he’ll accept the assignment to Triple-A.
    • The Cubs informed pitching prospect Ethan Roberts he’ll be on the Opening Day roster, he informed reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). A fourth-round pick in 2018 out of Tennessee Tech, the right-hander is the #33 prospect in the organization according to Baseball America. The reliever posted an even 3.00 ERA over 54 innings between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa last season. The Cubs reassigned non-roster invitees Jonathan Holder, Robert Gsellman, Steven Brault, Stephen Gonsalves and Ildemaro Vargas to Iowa, tweets Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
    • The Phillies reassigned non-roster invitees Ronald Torreyes, Yairo Muñoz and Dillon Maples to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, tweets Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Torreyes and Muñoz were competing for utility spots, while the hard-throwing Maples had been seeking a spot in the Philly bullpen.

 

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