This week's mailbag covers Kyle Schwarber's impending free agency, what the Braves should do in the offseason, whether Trevor Story could opt out, why MLB killed August waiver trades, how Josh Naylor will fare in free agency, the potentially weak 2026-27 free agent class, the chances the Dodgers sign Kyle Tucker, the Rockies' young bats, and more.
Fred asks:
I can't believe that John Middleton will let Kyle Schwarber play anywhere else but Philly next year, especially with the overall drop in the Phillies' non-Schwarber power output this year. Does a 4/125 extension keep him away from free agency?
Schwarber turns 33 in March. He's mashing this year like never before. Schwarber has already reached his first 4 WAR season, should fly past 5 WAR, and won't be far off 6 WAR. His previous career-high was 3.3 last year. The bar is very high for offense when you have no defensive value.
Regarding the term, only two DHs age 33 and up have achieved four years in free agency: Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez within a month of each other in December 2014. They were actually age 34 and 36, respectively, so I guess that's a (weak) case to actually go to five years on Schwarber.
To Fred's question, yes - four years at $31.25MM per year should definitely keep Schwarber away from free agency. The Phillies have a $185MM CBT payroll for next year at the moment, given Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, Jordan Romano, and others coming off the books. There would be room to give Schwarber a contract with a $30MM AAV, and it was Dave Dombrowski who did that ill-fated V-Mart deal with the Tigers. But would this type of contract with Schwarber be a good idea?
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The Phillies will match any offer for Schwarber.
This isn’t Hockey. Even if the Phillies match any offer he can still go wherever he wants. He can go anywhere.
mike – Looking at some of the catcher’s masks, I can understand why some people would think they are watching hockey instead ;O)
peak modern baseball: instead of showing Schwarber’s actual stats–the ones that are absolute and not subject to interpretation–the focus is on war. This doesn’t help the Phils win, rather it’s the runs he accounts for via HR, RBI, and runs scored. But why use actual quantifiable information when our own biases, feelings, and subjectivities can define things?
A problem bigger than baseball to be sure.
The hall of fame is going to have a crisis because schwarber could hit 500 homers on top of other accolades but have less than 30 WAR
What is the complaint? He has an incredible WAR for someone who doesn’t play defense.
It’s not that RBI are subject to interpretation. It’s that they are much more context-dependent than what I used.
wRC+ is an easy-to-understand stat that takes the player’s singles, walks, doubles, triples, and home runs and weighs them properly. It also adjusts for the player’s ballpark and era.
RBI depends a ton on Schwarber’s teammates and tells us less about how good of a hitter he is, in my opinion.
Is it possible for a bad or mediocre hitter to have a good RBI total? Absolutely. Can a bad hitter be 66% better than league average as a hitter, as Schwarber is? By definition, no.
And then to evaluate Schwarber solely on offense with no consideration for the value of defense is a mistake on your part, in my opinion.
There are no front offices in MLB that value players and decide what to pay free agents based on RBI and runs scored. Whether that’s wrong or a big problem is debatable, but I’d be doing a disservice to subscribers if I attempted to evaluate Schwarber using 1990s methods.
We’re both introducing our own biases by virtue of the stats we’re using to evaluate baseball players. Choosing RBI over WAR is not unbiased at all.
Not sure what you saw in my answer that involves feelings. Even though feelings-wise I love Schwarber and think he’s a super fun player to watch.
Three reasons why Schwarber should outstrip his historical comps:
1) Salary inflation
2) His consistent ability to draw walks, elevating his OPS
3) His growing popularity among Philly fans leading to increased income from merchandising. A ring during his tenure could easily create ongoing income for many years, like Schmidt, Rollins, Carlton, Roberts, and others.
Bottom line–I agree with Darkside.
I agree that we’d need to add inflation to the V-Mart/Cruz deals to get 2026 dollars, but those comps were much more about the years than the AAV. Teams have long had an aversion to giving four years to 33-year-old DHs.
AAV-wise for Schwarber to get into the 25-30 mil range seems plausible enough.
The revenue from licensed merchandise is split equally among the 30 teams, except at the Phillies’ team store I think. I wouldn’t expect much of a dent from selling Schwarber jerseys. How is Jimmy Rollins currently creating income for the Phillies?
As for popularity being a good reason to go the extra mile to re-sign a player, definitely. That can lead to ticket sales and other goodwill.
Thank you for taking the time to respond and enlighten me. I was unaware of the merchandise revenue sharing. I can see how that undermines my last point.
Always with the “cheap shots” on Dave Dombrowski and taking things completely out of context!?
The driver of /instigator of those excessive extensions for many veteran players in Detroit was former Owner/Pizza magnate Mike Illitch.
Mike Illitch had a reputation for being “overly generous” with his veteran star players. In Mike Illitch’s own words “he treated his players like family” and would even over pay to sign veteran players and keep them on his Tigers teams.
Mike Illitch made the decisions to sign/extend/overpay veteran players like: Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Prince Fielder. It was his “MO.” And, it was one of the reasons that Mike Ilitch and the Tigers had a reputation around MLB for paying beyond top dollar for veteran players contract extensions and signings in free agency.
Mike Illitch was dying and was determined to pay whatever it took to try to win a World Series Championship before he passed on.
You can’t take your millions and billions with you when you go.
Unfortunately, a Tigers’ World Series Championship eluded Mike Ilitch and the Tigers at that time.
I agree that mentioning Illitch would’ve added more context to the V-Mart signing, but I also don’t think Dombrowski should be absolved of that contract.
I think he could’ve talked Illitch out of spending that money if he wanted to. Max Scherzer was an ace pitcher at the peak of his powers that same offseason and had been with the Tigers longer. The Tigers set a limit on what they were willing to pay Scherzer and then let him walk as a free agent that same winter.
We all know the heart of a lion has value what are you willing to pay for it?
What else does he bring to the table others won’t ever have to offer. You are right. There are no comps. Look around the league and your team and tell me what you think a Kyle Schwarber is actually worth. If you are the Red Sox. If you are the Cubs. If you are the Blue Jays. If you are one man away from the playoffs. Who would you want and what is he worth?