Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito has declined his end of a $19MM mutual option, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. He’ll be paid a $1.5MM buyout and return to the open market in search of a new opportunity. The Red Sox will have the right to make him a $22.025MM qualifying offer, as Giolito has not previously received a QO in his career.
Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox on the heels of a disappointing platform with the White Sox. He’d posted excellent results from 2019-21 and cemented himself as one of the sport’s most durable starters before logging back-to-back ERAs near 5.00 in 2022-23. Giolito, 32 next July, had hoped to bounce back in Boston and take an opt-out in his contract last offseason.
Instead, the clock struck midnight on the durable right-hander’s arm. He tore the UCL in his pitching elbow during spring training 2024 and didn’t pitch a single inning inning that year. Giolito naturally forwent the opt-out in his contract and returned to Boston for the 2025 season. He stumbled out of the gate, struggling so badly that for a few starts it looked like his entire two-year contract would go down as a bust. By early June, he had an ERA north of 6.00 through seven starts.
Giolito rebounded in terrific fashion, however. Beginning with six shutout innings against the Rays on June 10, he took off on an extended hot streak. From June 10 through season’s end, Giolito posted a 2.51 ERA in 111 1/3 innings. His 20.3% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate in that stretch were both worse than average, and his .244 average on balls in play showed plenty of good fortune. Even with some expected regression in his ERA, Giolito looked like a solid mid-rotation starter who’d take a place in Boston’s postseason rotation — at least until the next roadblock arose.
On Sept. 29, manager Alex Cora announced that Giolito was dealing with an elbow issue and would not be on the team’s roster in the Wild Card round of postseason play. The next day, the team indicated that Giolito was unlikely to return at all in 2025, regardless of how deep the Sox advanced in the postseason field. While his surgically repaired UCL was intact, the veteran righty was hobbled by flexor irritation and a bone issue in his elbow.
The Sox had a $14MM club option on Giolito for the 2026 season that they might still have exercised even after the elbow troubles, but when he completed his 140th frame of the season — Giolito totaled 145 innings overall — that option vested instead as a $19MM mutual option. Players tend to make the first call with regard to mutual options, and Giolito is seemingly confident enough in his health that he’ll turn down a net $17.5MM to once again test free agency.
His decision to decline the mutual option also forces the Red Sox into a decision on whether to issue a qualifying offer. They exceeded the luxury tax line in 2025, so they’d only net a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the 2026 draft if Giolito declined and signed elsewhere. That minimal compensation, coupled with more elbow troubles for Giolito, might be enough for the Sox to forgo extending a QO in the first place. If they do, however, Giolito will again have a decision to make — this time on a sum that clocks in a bit over $3MM north of his prior option price. Add in the buyout he’s owed for declining, and a QO could at least net him $4.525MM over the value of the option he declined today.
With Giolito headed toward the market — or at least somewhat up in the air — the Sox project for a rotation including Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and a handful of question marks. Top prospects Payton Tolle and Connelly Early impressed late in the season but only have a handful of MLB starts between them. Kutter Crawford missed the entire season due to knee and wrist injuries (the latter of which required surgery). Patrick Sandoval didn’t pitch in 2025 after signing a two-year deal on the heels of his 2024 UCL procedure, but he’ll be in the mix next year. Tanner Houck had Tommy John surgery in August and is likely a nonfactor in 2026.
Given all the uncertainty in the ’pen, the Sox are expected to pursue rotation help this winter. That could include a reunion with Giolito, but there are plenty of options for them to peruse on both the free agent and trade markets.
Have to imagine a QO is coming, since he probably declines it. And if he doesn’t, one more year at a slightly elevated price point isn’t bad if he pitches similarly to how he did this year.
Meow, if he does accept it, the total is in line with the cost of a replacement for him if he had walked. Beyond that, if he is healthy and productive, had can be flipped at the deadline.
This really is a no loss situation for the Sox as the worst case would have him not opting out anyway.
If he’s healthy and predictive the Sox would likely be in contention so they would have no interest in him being “flipped at the deadline” in that scenario.
I was thinking the same thing. If they are in contention they can never have too much pitching.
I agree with both of you. Naturally, you don’t move him at the deadline if the Old Gio is back. Even if the young bucks step up they’ll be inning controlled the first year.
Very up-and-down stint in Boston. Interesting to see what’s next
I really don’t think a team should sign him for more than that or the QO, but that doesn’t mean they wont.
Like with Jack Flaherty, there’s a bit of a gamble at work. The QO doesn’t seem like much of a commitment for either team, but what would Flaherty or Giolito get on the open market with a QO attached to them?
Agree w this. Having that draft pick attached to either player seems like it would diminish some teams interest. Those draft picks are highly coveted. Of course, I thought the same thing about Pivetta last year and he ended up ok.
Flaherty’s advanced stats are all in line with his career norms including FIP. Same for Cease. They’re both going to get paid well.
And as a likely CBT payor this year the draft pick the Sox would get if he declines the QO will be significantly lower in the draft than the one the Sox got for Pivetta last year. That has to be weighed in the factor too. The potential reward may not be worth the chance of him accepting and that limiting what other moves the team can make to bolster the rotation for next year.
Doubt that the Red Sox will offer him the QO. They’re afraid he might accept. $22 million is a high price for an injury-prone pitcher who looks well past his prime.
Didn’t they just pay that in 25 for a former Dodger? A big market club can afford it and his turning down the option suggests he believes he’s healthy. I’d offer it
If anything, the Buehler disaster might scare the Sox even more about a QO. My guess is that the team thinks they can patch the rotation for less than $22 million.
Wouldn’t that $20m be better spent on Sandy Alcantara’s contract for 2026?
As of today, I dont think anyone is off the table to trade for him either, that includes Early or Tolle…..
I don’t think Alcantara is their top choice to take the #2 spot and they will be holding onto the trade pieces for that pitcher. Gio is more of a #3 or 4 pitcher which they will need if Gio leaves anyway.
Pedro – i agree, I think theyre gonna go for Ryan. But, if it were me, based on a one year sprint to the lock out, id rather have Alcantara
Not sure if Ryan is the best choice either. He seemed to fade to end the year, so not sure if it was fatigue or the pressure to perform. If he struggles under the pressure, he will not succeed in Boston. If we could be confident Alcantara would return to form, I agree he is the better option.
$20-25M is the going rate for middle-of-the-rotation starters these days. Aces are making north of $30-35M.
They paid Buehler $21 million and he was basically the same situation as Giolito. Giving Giolito the QO is not terrible, either he takes it or leaves it either way the Sox need pitching. I do wonder if they will re-engage the Twins about Joe Ryan but there is definitely room for both
I don’t understand all of the hype about ryan.I think hunter green would be a better option.
One year at a medium AAC for a starter is *exactly* what the Sox FO covets. The only reason they wouldn’t extend a QO is if they feel confident his injury is going to be a problem in 2026.
Pass. Don’t attach the QO either, let him leave.
The Sox have Crochet as #1 and Bello as #3. with the other SP’s listed above to fill the 4 and 5. The Sox need a bona fide righty #2 SP. Giolito isnt that anymore,
If Giolito is declining the option he probably thinks or is healthy enough. might as well attack the QO and get a draft pick. Even if he does accept it 22 million for one year isn’t bad.
If he accepted the option then that would be a signal to other teams that he doesn’t feel healthy. Then if the Red Sox declined their side of the option he would be looking for a one year pillow deal.
Gio is the number 4 pitcher. They still need a #2 even if they keep him.
No QO. Let him walk. Put the $20+mil elsewhere.
Cannot imagine extending a QO to him… unless of course they expect him to decline.
Giolito to Balt on a 3yr deal may suit both. Not sure anyone will or should trust him on a longer deal….and team can avoid a massive guarantee other SPs can get while quieting that they didn’t do enough last 2 offseasons for rotation.
This is good for the Red Sox. Focus on resigning Bregman for 6 years / 150+ million and signing Alonso for 6 years / 170+ million. Trade for MacKenzie Gore and Mitch Keller because they’d both excel in Boston.
2222 – I dont want Bregman back at all, nevermind for 6 years. But, I dont think that $25m per year is gonna get it done either.
The Sox missed the boat on Alonso, should’ve signed him last year. But, if they could get him at higher aav for less years, i’m in.
If we could get Alcantara as the #2, I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on Gore, but, not sure the Natuonals are really gonna move him.
While I would like to see them make a run at Alcantara, I am not convinced he is going to get back to his pre-injury form. His numbers were mixed, so he is far from a guarantee that he is going to provide you with #2 starter results.
Pedro – im sure that Ryan and his low cost are making Breslows analytics guys do cartwheels. But honestly, hes less than a year younger than Alcantara and has never gotten anywhere close to the domination level that Alcantara has.
Im thinking that Alcantara was getting right through the first half of last year and is poised to take a new team to the next level.
I would not sign bregman 4 for 6 years. i’d rather invest in schwaber as a DH 4 years $120 MIL. Alonso at 1st and mayer on 3rd.
I don’t think there is any way they sign both Bregman and Alonso. I also don’t see them signing either to a 6 year deal. Maximum 4 years for either of them.
QO should be a no trainer if his elbow is OK. if the socks are aggressive with starting pitching, he could be the number four or five statter. at worst, he could be flipped in a trade
So…this is the “dither” box!. Found it!