MLBTR's annual Top 50 Free Agents list comes out Thursday evening! We'll also be launching our free agent prediction contest at that time.
This week's subscriber mailbag covers possible Freddy Peralta and Sonny Gray trades, how the 2026-27 lockout might affect free agency this winter, where Bo Bichette will sign if not Toronto, the chances the Dodgers land Kyle Tucker, and how the Cubs will approach the loss of Tucker as well as a rotation upgrade.
Morris asks:
What would a realistic trade with Milwaukee for Freddy Peralta look like for the Braves? While I would love to see Cease in a Braves' uni, I think he may get a much better deal elsewhere with Atlanta's seeming insistence on being "logical" with every free agent (cue Friedman's famous quote). Milwaukee has a penchant for really getting something extra out of pitchers, and Peralta is a finished product who will be too expensive for them to keep much longer. Would something like Bryce Elder (Milwaukee could absolutely figure out how to make him better), a top-15 pitching prospect, and a top-30 position-player-prospect get the deal done?
At one point in our free agent deliberations, we had Dylan Cease signing a three-year, $93MM deal with two opt-outs. We were having a bit of a hard time giving Cease the long-term contract he's likely seeking, mostly because of his 4.55 ERA. For the most part, we've gotten past those reservations and expect Cease to sign for perhaps seven years, as Aaron Nola did coming off a 4.46 regular season mark.
It should be noted that the Braves were competitive in the bidding for Nola, so we can't completely rule out Alex Anthopoulos going long for the Georgia-native Cease. But it's also true that in eight years atop the Braves' front office, Anthopoulos' biggest free agent deal in both years and dollars was Marcell Ozuna's four-year, $65MM pact in February 2021. I agree that Cease feels unlikely in Atlanta.
On September 30th, Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote, "The Braves could use another reliable veteran — someone in the mold of Charlie Morton as a pitcher who can provide steadiness, leadership and consistent innings." The thinking is that with Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Spencer Strider locked in, the Braves need reliability more than they need a front of the rotation guy. In my Top 50 picks, I've got the Braves signing Chris Bassitt. I also find the idea of a paid-down Sonny Gray acquisition to be plausible.
But there's nothing that precludes Anthopoulos from thinking bigger and renting Peralta for a year, regardless of whether they can eventually extend him.
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