MLBTR's annual Top 50 Free Agents list comes out Thursday evening! We'll also be launching our free agent prediction contest at that time.
This week's subscriber mailbag covers possible Freddy Peralta and Sonny Gray trades, how the 2026-27 lockout might affect free agency this winter, where Bo Bichette will sign if not Toronto, the chances the Dodgers land Kyle Tucker, and how the Cubs will approach the loss of Tucker as well as a rotation upgrade.
Morris asks:
What would a realistic trade with Milwaukee for Freddy Peralta look like for the Braves? While I would love to see Cease in a Braves' uni, I think he may get a much better deal elsewhere with Atlanta's seeming insistence on being "logical" with every free agent (cue Friedman's famous quote). Milwaukee has a penchant for really getting something extra out of pitchers, and Peralta is a finished product who will be too expensive for them to keep much longer. Would something like Bryce Elder (Milwaukee could absolutely figure out how to make him better), a top-15 pitching prospect, and a top-30 position-player-prospect get the deal done?
At one point in our free agent deliberations, we had Dylan Cease signing a three-year, $93MM deal with two opt-outs. We were having a bit of a hard time giving Cease the long-term contract he's likely seeking, mostly because of his 4.55 ERA. For the most part, we've gotten past those reservations and expect Cease to sign for perhaps seven years, as Aaron Nola did coming off a 4.46 regular season mark.
It should be noted that the Braves were competitive in the bidding for Nola, so we can't completely rule out Alex Anthopoulos going long for the Georgia-native Cease. But it's also true that in eight years atop the Braves' front office, Anthopoulos' biggest free agent deal in both years and dollars was Marcell Ozuna's four-year, $65MM pact in February 2021. I agree that Cease feels unlikely in Atlanta.
On September 30th, Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote, "The Braves could use another reliable veteran — someone in the mold of Charlie Morton as a pitcher who can provide steadiness, leadership and consistent innings." The thinking is that with Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Spencer Strider locked in, the Braves need reliability more than they need a front of the rotation guy. In my Top 50 picks, I've got the Braves signing Chris Bassitt. I also find the idea of a paid-down Sonny Gray acquisition to be plausible.
But there's nothing that precludes Anthopoulos from thinking bigger and renting Peralta for a year, regardless of whether they can eventually extend him.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
What you don’t seem to understand is that the owner isn’t losing money, some corporation/partnership is losing money (assuming any team actually loses money which is highly doubtful). With tax write offs and other tax moves, the value goes up and the corp/partnership makes more money by losing money on one part of its operations.
That’s an inaccurate or incomplete characterization of mlb ownership structures. While some teams are owned by corporations, others are owned by individuals. For example, the Phillies principle owner, John Middleton, is said to pay out of pocket for overages.
In most cases, when it’s reported that the team lost money, what that really means is they took on debt. And, often, servicing that debt becomes the reason a team posts accounting losses.
Even if Middleton pays out of pocket, he is likely using those payments to offset his personal tax liabilities.
even if that were the case, that means you are losing all of your income/proceeds to cover the team’s overage/loss.
In Middleton’s case, what are his personal tax liabilities? Where is he making money outside of the Phillies? He sold his company 20 years ago, so my understanding is that he personally makes or loses money based on the team financials.
Seems like the Red Sox would be well advised to say bye bye Bregman and take Bichette in his place at your projected $, which would be a lower AAV than what is being projected for Bregman, who is four years older.
I don’t think the Dodgers are going to offer a $350m contract to Tucker as assumed in the 25% probability. It will probably be like Harper, with the Dodgers offering a very high AAV 3-4 year deal and some other team stretching out the long end to add total $ while lowering AAV. Won’t be an apples-to-apples bidding war. Dodgers chances to sign him would be based on his (unknown to us) preferences to maximize near-term earnings vs putting up a bigger one-time $ figure (like Harper).
I dunno, the 2019 Dodgers were under the CBT and it’s generally assumed the 2026 team will pay a 110% tax. 40 mil for Tucker in 2026 could mean paying out 84 mil.
Whether there’s enough money for Bo after Buster sets his sights on two rotation arms, I don’t know. But Bo would be a perfect fit in the Giants lineup.
On Stearns FA pitchers, Id bet the farm hes in on Woodruff. Hes well acquainted with him from Milwaukee, high character guy that you would feel comfortable throwing out there in an elimination game, and won’t require a lengthy commitment.
Dont know how many more these 3 guys our fan base doesn’t care about/actively dislikes, for Freddy Peralta proposals I can handle. The Brewers wouldnt take McNeil and his contract for free, thats around 15% of their budget, the hell thats a reasonable framework
I did ignore McNeil. I didn’t consider that a notable or necessary part of that person’s proposal.
Sure, put everything behind a paywall. Great way to increase your subscription.
It’s a mailbag. It’s literally the first thing you put behind a paywall if you use a tiered system for revenue.
You can pretty much categorize how an MLBTR piece is filed based on how much it relies on opinion. The folks who sub are likelier to be interested in opinions. The folks who free ride probably just want the facts (rumors).
Brad – Exactly! It makes perfect sense that opinion-based content would be behind the paywall, because it’s above and beyond the reporting of actual news and rumors.
Like you said, some people come here just for the facts. They aren’t interested in the opinions, therefore putting the opinions behind paywalls is not going to deter anyone from becoming a subscriber.
Nobody tell him about the lounge and open bar.
So their labor should just be free? Mlbtr has supplied a ton of free content over the years. The business model needed to evolve.
Putting this mailbag behind the paywall, which is the only place it’s ever been since launching five years ago, actually is a great way to increase subscriptions!
Our Top 50 free agents list, which takes a full month worth of work, is free for all and comes out tomorrow!
And it’s worth every penny.
Also it was locking the offseason reviews that pushed me over the edge if we’re being honest haha. Those are just the best in my opinion.
Dejota – Pennies are no longer being made.
Now it’s worth every bitcoin ;o)
Just a friendly reminded your owner isn’t losing money. No billionaire is going to spend a massive chunk of their worth to lose millions. Take the Twins – they chose to finance all that debt. Their debt and inability to sell was self-inflicted. When your favorite owner is crying poor or that they’re losing money they’re almost always pointing to liquidity issues not realized losses. They never deserve any benefit of the doubt because you can’t make a billion dollars, you have to take some of them from somebody else. I hate that we can’t be honest about that.
Bichette has been in the Jays organization for his entire career, he’s close with Vlad Jr., he had a great season and showed dedication coming back so soon after an injury. Nevertheless, a long term deal at +/- $200 million does not seem a good place for the Jays to be. They are locked into the Gimenez deal through 2029. And while they are in the lower minors now, the Jays’ two best position prospects are middle infielders. Ernie Clement had a terrific year and can fill in just fine until the youngsters come around while Barger plays 3B. Unfortunately, I think the Jays have to let Bichette go.
No way can the Jays let Bichette go! Otherwise this 2025 run is all for naught. Bieber elected to stay at less money and so will Bassitt and maybe even Scherzer.
With Springers deal up in 2027 that will free up some considerable chunk of $$$ as well.