MLBTR Chat Transcript

• The Weekend Chat has returned! We’ll take a minute to get some questions build up, and then get into it…

Guards ball

• Do you think the guardians have a legit shot to still when the Al central considering the hot start we are on since the all star break?

Mark P

• Detroit’s lead is down to six games over Cleveland, which is still pretty substantial.  It would take a combo of the Guards both staying hot, and the Tigers continuing their so-so play over the last month for the Guardians to have a legitimate chance.

  It would be pretty ironic if, a year after their big late-season surge, the Tigers were caught by another team going on a surprise late run

Rangers Fan

• I’ve seen conflicting reports on the Rangers CBT situation after the trade deadline additions. The local beat writers are acting as if the Rangers will definitively end the season over the CBT threshold. But other sources, like Spotrac and Cot’s, make it seem like the Rangers can and will end up below the CBT threshold. Obviously, bonuses and incentives complicate things, but if you take the incentives that are “very likely” to hit, it appears the Rangers will stay under with a little room for additional bonuses. Do you have any clarity on this?

Mark P

• A team’s final luxury tax number isn’t officially known until the league releases numbers in December.  Sites like Cot’s, Spotrac, RosterResource, etc. do a great job in providing projections and estimates, but they’re the first to tell you that they’re working with incomplete information.  Many other factors like roster bonuses or other expenses are known sometimes only to the teams themselves, and those the x-factor numbers audited by the league at year’s end
• My guess right now would be that Texas is just barely under the line, given how Cot’s/RR/Spotrac all have them slightly under the $241MM tax line.

Jeff

• Who wins the AL West, Astros or Mariners?

Mark P

• Who wins the AL West?

  ---

  Astros (43.2% | 272 votes)

  Mariners (51.6% | 325 votes)

  Rangers (5.0% | 32 votes)

  ---

  Total Votes: 629
• I expanded your question to add the Rangers, since they’re certainly still in the picture at this juncture.

Armchair GM

• With the addition of Catlos Correa, where does Isaac Paredes play if he were to come back before the playoffs?  Is Paredes trade bait in the offseason?

Mark P

• Paredes would be used at 1B or DH, depending on Alvarez’s status.  You could maybe see him at 2B if Altuve then plays left field.  Needless to say, Houston would find a way to get Paredes in there.

Guest

• Is Boston legit, or is this another fluke start to the 2nd half?

Mark P

• They’re definitely legit. Now that the pitching has started to come around, the Sox don’t have many weaknesses

Don

• Watching every Tiger game it’s easy to see how and why they’ve been inconsistent lately. Mark I’m wondering how a non fan sees it from the outside looking in. Thanks

Mark P

• Not to press the panic button too much for Detroit fans, but there are some similarities right now between the 2024 Orioles and the 2025 Tigers — a team that had basically everything go right for three months, and then reality started to sink in.

  There’s still plenty of time for the Tigers to stabilize things.  As mentioned earlier, their six-game lead is still substantial.  (If you asked Tigers fans before the season if they would’ve been happy with a six-game division lead on August 9, that would’ve been a unanimous yes.)

• I find it hard to believe, for one, that Riley Greene’s slump will last the rest of the year

Chris

• I know The Athletic mentioned it, do you think its possible the Yanks cut their losses with Williams once some relief guys come off the IL?

Yankeeman

• Is Devin Williams really a September release candidate

Mark P

• Like I said in that Yankees notes post, the fact that this is even floated as semi-realistic possibility is wild, considering Williams’ reputation.  I’d say it’s still unlikely given that it was just a few weeks ago that Williams seemed like his old self heading into the All-Star break.

Brewer Fan

• Not anquestiin but I just want to say, the team with the best record right now has a starting outfield of Issac Collins, Blake Perkins, and Sal Frelick.. this team is absolutely wild.

Mark P

• Credit to those outfielders for all playing well, and to the Brewers organization in general for (once again) figuring out a way to remain contenders.

Redsfan

• Are we chasing rainbows?

Mark P

• The Reds have an opening here with the Mets struggling and the Cubs to some extent just treading water over the last few weeks.  Cincinnati’s trade deadline moves were pretty interesting, and I think the team still had it in them to make a run down the stretch

Guest

• should Luis Robert Jr. keep his bags packed in the off season? If not, do the Sox sign a big bat to pair with Robert and who might that bat be?

Mark P

• Chicago’s certainly not going to make a big signing since they’re still in the depths of the rebuild.  It will be fascinating to watch the Robert trade talks this winter and see what kind of deal (if any) can get finalized.  Even picking up that club option is an interesting risk for the Sox, since it they end up having to eat money to complete a deal, it’ll look pretty strange.

Al Pacino

• Bees?

Mark P

• Beads?!

Detroit

• I’m talking building a dynastic team, not trying to eek in by selling the top prospects.
• First place caused the GM to drop the team building plan? They were a rebuilding team and had pending Free Agents, an opt out player and blocked prospects not likely to make the Detroit roster.

Mark P

• These were two different comments by the same poster, for the record.

  Scott Harris made statements something along these lines post-deadline, saying that other teams were making such big asks for Detroit’s top prospects that Harris didn’t want to blow up the future just to make a run in 2025.  That’s all logical and, as I’ve noted in the past, having a deep farm system can sometimes made trade talks difficult, since every other club will naturally aim high at first for just the top minor leaguers.

  I do think digging a bit deeper into the prospect pile, however, might’ve been a shot in the arm for a flagging Tigers team.  Obtaining a player with multiple years of control, for instance, might’ve been worth the cost of giving away someone in the top 10 prospects (if obviously not Clark, McGonigle, etc.)

Prellers Death Wish

• What was your favorite deadline move?

Mark P

• I really liked the Phillies getting Duran.  They paid a big cost, but having a star closer immediately solves a big roster problem.

Blue Jays

• If the jays make the playoffs, what’s their starting rotation look like?

Mark P

• Easiest call is probably just Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, with Scherzer as the fourth. Lauer probably deserves a start but he can also be more easily shifted down into bullpen duty.  Bieber (and Manoah) are x-factors as well, but we’ll cross that bridge once we see either in action.

Braves Fan

• Great job with the deadline coverage!

Mark P

• Thanks!  As you might expect, deadline day is easily MLBTR’s busiest day of the year, so the whole staff was on call to cover the tons of breaking stories all day long.

JN

• What does the Dodgers playoff rotation look like with everyone healthy? Would Kershaw potentially be left out? Have a hard time trusting Sasaki with no postseason experience

Mark P

• Big if, but IF everyone is healthy, Kershaw will still get starts.  It is possible you could see a Kershaw/Ohtani hybrid “starter” in a piggyback capacity depending on where Ohtani is at health-wise come October.

Ranger Danger

• Mistake by the phils not trading me?

Mark P

• Nope.

Paint(er) by numbers

• I get that I’m good, but I have already had tj. Shouldn’t the phils have traded an unproven quantity in me for a known quantity in Kwan? Would have solved immediate and long term OF questions.

Mark P

• Two questions kind of fold into one here, as Painter will probably be stepping right into the rotation spot left open when Suarez (likely) departs in free agency.  The Phillies instead opted to move Abel to address another need in bringing Duran in to close.

marlins

• Cody B would look good for us in RF, low strike outs good d some pop, all we need is offense

Mark P

• I’m going out on a limb by saying that the Marlins won’t be signing Cody Bellinger this winter.  Or anyone to any kind of pricey, longer-term contract.  Miami’s rebuild has shown some really good progress but it’ll be a long time (if ever) that the organization moves into that kind of a player acquisition phase.

Brett

• Are the Braves closer to contending or a rebuild?

Mark P

• There’s still so much talent on the roster that I feel 2025 might just be a Murphy’s Law season.  Having basically the entire rotation get hurt is enough to crush any team, but the bigger long-term issue might be that so many of the hitters didn’t produce.

  With healthier pitching, Acuna, Olson, the Baldwin/Murphy combo, and Riley, that’s a good core right there.  At least one of Harris/Profar/Albies needs to rebound, and I feel it’s possible Atlanta could trade Albies this winter to upgrade at 2B.

Cashman

• I know Devin Williams has been awful, especially recently. He does have a great track record, any chance he gets a qualifying offer in the offseason? Does he accept it?

Mark P

• Williams would absolutely accept a qualifying offer, but the Yankees just as absolutely aren’t going to offer one given his struggles

Fat Guy

• For Duran, i personally would have preferred Ford and Sloan or Cijntje over Tait and Abel, simply because the Twins would have a more near ready catcher and could trade Jeffers in the off-season. What say you?

Mark P

• That also would’ve been a pretty good trade package, except we don’t know if the Mariners actually had that offer on the table.

Lars

• Are the Cardinals a better team without Arenado?

Mark P

• Since Arenado isn’t offering much at this point beyond good defense, probably yes.

Is it Football Season?

• What will it take for the Reds to truly acquire a player that helps them offensively this winter/offseason?  And when will the media begin calling out their ownership/front office?

Mark P

• In my view, the Cincinnati beat writers have been plenty critical of the team’s moves, or lack thereof.

  The Reds have a lot of money coming off the books this winter, so even with arb raises cutting into that figure to some extent, there’s room for the team to make at least one pricey addition.  If such a move is made, it simply has to be for a productive player (i.e. not the Jeimer Candelario signing), given the team’s budget limitations.  Adding one proper full-time outfielder rather than relying on the platoons would also be a good way to solidify matters.

Mark

• Do you think Trevor Story will opt out at the end of the season given his performance this season?

Mark P

• Story is entering his age-33 season, and would be leaving a guaranteed $55MM on the table by opting out of the last two seasons on his deal.  I find it hard to believe he’d pass on that money coming off a season in which he’d stayed healthy, but still only has slightly above-average offense
• It seems far likelier that Story remains in his contract and sticks around to play for a Red Sox team that looks like they’re entering a promising era

A’s tanked 2025 trading Erceg

• Why don’t the Oakland A’s leave a good bullpen in place without tinkering with it? Do you think the A’s would have gone 1–20 this year, if they had not traded Lucas Erceg to the Royals? (Will Klein is already gone, like Joe Boyle; in recent trades, it seems that the A’s have acquired a lot of players who are soon gone from the franchise: out of options, etc.? I don’t know the right term for it, but this seems to be a recent phenomenon.) Trade Mason Miller and JP Sears to the Padres for four this year; you’re gambling that Leo de Vries turns out to be something more than Yoan Moncada, and you’re gambling that you can trade one reliever after one or two good years for another minor league prospect or two who throws 100mph. What is your school of thought on trading relievers having good years with years of team control for minor league starters? It seems like the A’s haven’t brought up starters like Hudson Mulder Zito in a long time…

Mark P

• Relief pitching is inherently unreliable.  I don’t blame the A’s for selling high on Miller or even Erceg, especially when another team is willing to offer a blue-chipper like DeVries

Skenes

• As a diehard Pirates fan (I will take your pity please), is it wrong for me to want to trade Skenes now? I want him in Pittsburgh forever but the reality is that isn’t going to happen and I don’t want to see his career ruined by the inept organization. Plus the haul back is the best bet to land 3 future major league bats in the lineup.

Mark P

• It’s an unfortunate state of affairs that fans are so resigned to having a generational talent on their team seem like an inevitable departure.  I wonder how many Pirates fans share this poster’s view, in the sense that the Bucs might as well sell high on him now rather than delaying the inevitable.

Armchair GM

• What type of  extensions ($ and years) would  the Astros have to offer Hunter Brown and Jeremy Pena in the offseason, to keep them in Houston beyond their arbitration years?

Mark P

• Both are represented by Scott Boras, so extensions may be unlikely barring a drastic overpay.  Pena has two arb years left and Brown is arb-eligible for the first time this coming winter, so the Astros may stick with this limited cost control in order to manage the rest of their payroll, if the CBA remains a concern.

  Even with the Twins kicking in some money on Carlos Correa, the addition of that contract adds another significant boost to Houston’s long-term expenditures.

Rippin dingers

• Why isn’t Lawlar playing everyday in the bigs?

Mark P

• He’s been recovering from a hamstring strain.  Once healthy, he’ll certainly get called back to the Diamondbacks.

Baseball fan

• Jays look like contenders but Brendon Little has been bad recently and Fluharty/Bruihl aren’t leverage guys. Do you think Little bounces back and how will jays pen fare going forward?

Mark P

• Dominguez and Varland were good additions, but I would’ve liked to have seen Toronto get one more reliever into the mix.  You mentioned a few of the inexperienced or unproven names the Blue Jays have been relying on for much of the year, and the doors may already be coming off a couple of these relievers.
• Depending on the state of the rotation, it seems possible the Jays could do something like move Manoah or even Lauer into the bullpen in September to add depth and quality.

Charlesco

• When will Skubal be a free agent? Should they have gone all in?

Mark P

• He is set to hit free agency following the 2026 season.
• Skubal is another Boras client, so with an extension unlikely, I would’ve viewed this situation as another reason the Tigers could’ve or should’ve pushed harder to win now

who’s on 1st

• Altho Altuve has been a team player by moving off 2b, give the guy some respect by leaving him at 2b- with all his accomplishments over the years.

Mark P

• The other factor behind the position change was that Altuve has been a subpar defender (in the view of most metrics) at second base for some time now.  He hasn’t done much better as a left fielder either, leaving the Astros in a bit of a quandary about where exactly to play him going forward.

Ken

• What would a Nick Kurtz extension look like?

Mark P

• Since Kurtz is limited to first base, he probably couldn’t command something quite in the Anthony/Carroll tier of extensions for players with less than a year of service time.  But, asking for at least a $10MM average annual value seems like the absolute floor.

Barney Coolio

• Will anyone ever steal 500 bases again?

Mark P

• At this rate, Josh Naylor will be there before the season is out.

Phillies

• The Phillies have managed to make it through another year with just one major pitching injury, and that wasn’t even an arm injury!  How have they managed to stay so (relatively) healthy while the rest of the league seemingly has to cycle through 10 starters just to get through a season?

Mark P

• Feels like you’re tempting fate just by asking this question!  Part of it is just pure luck, part can be owed to the Phillies investing in the right pitchers, and credit should be given to the team’s medical and training staff for their part in keeping these guys healthy.

taylor ward

• would the reds trade hector rodriguez for ward this offseason?

Mark P

• Ward is the kind of everyday player that would be a nice fit in Cincy, except I’m not sure Rodriguez would be the ideal trade piece.  H-Rod himself could be part of the answer in the Reds’ outfield as early as next season.

Barney Coolio

• Seriously, will anyone ever steal 500 bases again?

Mark P

• That was a serious answer!  Who are you to doubt the Mississauga Speed Demon?!

  Actual response: only 39 players in MLB history have ever reached the 500-steal plateau, so it’s not like it’s a common milestone.  I’d say that yes, someone will get there again eventually, but it’ll take a special kind of player.  Maybe a Chandler Simpson if he keeps consistently hitting.

• Sorry for the delay there, had a brief internet outage but it seems like everything’s up and running again

IM

• What do you make of the O’s quantity over quality approach to the deadline?

Mark P

• There was only so much the Orioles were going to get for rental players, so in that sense, the club did well in amassing a lot of lottery tickets and more for their various trade chips.

CardinalRed

• Would it make any sense for the Cards to sign DJ? Yankees are paying him through next year and he could help JJ at 2B, plus the Arenado friendship. Arenado needs to stay in the StL and enter the HoF with a Cards cap

Mark P

• For a Cardinals team that’s prioritizing playing time for younger talent, signing LeMahieu wouldn’t make any sense

Starryl Drawberry

• Agree or disagree: Buying at the trade deadline is a trap for most teams. Deadline trades usually don’t move the needle much and are more likely to harm than hurt; for every Yoenis Cespedes that comes in and saves a season, there are five Pete Crow-Armstrongs.

Mark P

• Pretty much every World Series champion of the last umpteen years has been helped by a deadline acquisition.  Would some of these teams have won a ring without that deadline pickup?  Maybe, but we’ll never know, and flags fly forever.

  It’s a “trap” in the sense that only one team wins every year, but I don’t view anything short of a championship as making a deadline push “not worth it” in most cases.

Curt Blefary

• The Scherzer/Kershaw match up, last night, was only the third time in the the last 35 years that two pitchers with 3,000+ strikeouts faced one another.  It happened 20 times in the ’80’s!  i find this amazing!  The fact that starting pitchers don’t go as deep in games seems to be the biggest reason for this phenomena.  What, in your opinion, are some others?

Mark P

• The reason it happened so relatively often in the 80’s is because Nolan Ryan was around to face everyone, but you’re right, it’s a pretty cool feat.  It’s fun that the Jays and Dodgers seemed to go a bit out of their way to make sure things lined up for Scherzer and Kershaw to face each other one (last?) time

Kelly Leak

• Are the O’s a cautionary tale for all the good young Teams out there? This time last year the O’s were expected to dominate for the next 10 seasons.

Mark P

• This is perhaps another reason why the Tigers could’ve or should’ve been more aggressive at the deadline….

  ….and yet, the Kyle Stowers trade is perhaps a counter-example of why trading prospects doesn’t always work out.  In fairness, Rogers has looked very good for Baltimore this year, so that trade no longer seems as inexplicable as it did at the time.

Friar Faithful

• What’s your opinion on the idea that the Padres may try to turn Mason Miller into a starter next year?

Mark P

• I guess there’s no harm in stretching him out for a look in Spring Training, though Miller’s injury history makes me think he’s just better off as a reliever

Jays Fan

• Is it wrong that I refuse to give Aikins any credit for this 1st place Team. It just seems that my uncle Joe could have stumbled into a quality Team after 10 years and a $240 millions payroll.

Mark P

• If your uncle Joe can develop four (going on five?) playoff teams in 10 years, the Nationals might want his contact info.

Oz

• What is Alex Anthopoulos’ approach this off-season?

Mark P

• I wonder if the Braves might not be a relatively quiet team, if they’re chalking 2025 up to extremely bad injury luck.  AA will always make some moves, but in terms of true blockbusters, I’m not sure if any are on the horizon other than perhaps a reorg in the middle infield.

Royals

• Do they make the postseason or miss out?

Mark P

• I think they’ll fall short. Just too many AL teams that seem to be playing well, and the Royals dug themselves into too big a hole.
• Time to wrap up the chat.  Thanks so much for all the questions, and the Weekend Chat can hopefully be back on more or less a regular schedule now that the July madness is past.
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