Michael King will make his return from the injured list on Saturday, the Padres informed reporters (including Dennis Lin of The Athletic). San Diego will activate him from the 60-day IL to go opposite Lucas Giolito in the second game of their weekend series against Boston. The Friars already have an opening on the 40-man roster, so unless they make another move tomorrow, they’ll only need to make an active roster move involving a pitcher.
King’s return was expected when the Padres optioned JP Sears on Tuesday. That allowed San Diego to play with a nine-man bullpen for a few days. They’ll drop back to eight when King rejoins Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish and Nestor Cortes in the rotation. The righty reached 61 pitches across 3 1/3 innings in his only Triple-A rehab start. It’s likely manager Mike Shildt will keep him around 75 pitches in his first MLB appearance in almost three months.
The injury began innocuously enough. King was scratched from a scheduled start on May 24 after telling the coaching staff that he felt he slept uncomfortably on his shoulder. He went on the 15-day IL a day later with what the team called inflammation. They later announced that he was battling an issue with his thoracic nerve that was sapping the strength in his shoulder. It ended up costing him two and a half months, though the team stressed that there weren’t any structural concerns.
King’s fastball averaged 92.7 MPH during his Triple-A start. That’s a tick below his MLB season average. That’s probably to be expected after an extended layoff. If King gets back to his pre-injury form, he’ll arguably be San Diego’s best starter. The 30-year-old had turned in a 2.59 earned run average through his first 10 starts. He struck out 28.4% of opposing hitters against a 7.6% walk rate. It was an even better performance than last year’s excellent first season in San Diego: 173 2/3 innings of 2.93 ERA ball with a 27.7% strikeout percentage.
The Padres welcome King back at a time when they occupy the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re one game above the Mets and 4.5 clear of the Reds, the top team that is not in playoff position. San Diego trails the Dodgers by just two games in the NL West.
King’s performance down the stretch will also have a significant impact on the upcoming free agent market. He’ll decline his end of a $15MM mutual option, reject a qualifying offer, and hit free agency for the first time. There’s an argument that he’s the second-best starter in the class behind Framber Valdez. That’s dependent on him showing no ill effects from the injury down the stretch and into the postseason.
Go Pads! Sweep the Sox! (We need help!)
YBC – This weekend is a perfect example of luck evening out. The Sox have fortunately missed a lot of really good starting pitchers, but this weekend they are getting SD’s 3 best. It will be a good test for my team.
And you’re already getting help from the Dodgers, as they are sending Snell and Yama against the Jays this weekend!
Starting Snell and Yamamoto doesn’t matter when the Dodgers’ garbage bullpen will lose the game anyway….
FPG
Another tough stretch for the Sox coming up with the Padres, Astros and even the Marlins who have been surprisingly decent recently. Pivetta has been great , especially at home. Kings 1st start since May 18th,so who knows what to expect there. Cease has been very inconsistent this year. Vegas has the Padres as big favorites tonight,slight favorite on Saturday,and the Sox are slight favorite on Sunday. I wish I could switch broadcasts so as to listen to Don Orsillo.
FPG
Kyle Harrison pitched well again last night for the Woo Sox. He is an interesting arm who has had some success in MLB, He may be in line to get a shot at some point.
cdc – You don’t have MLB.TV? I will definitely be watching the Padres broadcast because of Don.
The other day it was so great to hear Joe Castig back in the radio booth, I do miss him so much.
Miami is a much improved team, they won’t be easy to beat.
cdc – Yes it would be nice if the Sox could salvage something from the trade, so far they haven’t gotten much of a return.
Harrison needed 99 pitches to get through 5 innings last night. He is improving, but I think he has some work to do.
FPG
No I don’t have the full package, I get some of the product , I like IT with Millar and ??? can’t remember his name. I did enjoy Joe Castig ( can you believe it). I do like Merloni on the broadcast. I know you don’t like Fleming(?) ,I don’t mind him so much.
Maybe Buehler in this pitchers park can give us some quality length.
cdc – If you can switch to T-Mobile, you get every team every game totally free. And my plan is only $35/mth including everything.
I like Millar too, I was hoping he’d do more Sox games this year but really has done only what …. 2 or 3 series?
I really like Loumer, and I listen to the radio guys very seldom.
Buehler’s control has been the big issue, wouldn’t you say? It always amazes me when opponents do stupid things while they have Sox pitchers on the ropes. Like the other day bunting with 2 strikes? They should never, ever bunt with 2 strikes. Or trying to steal 2B when the batter has a 3-0 or 3-1 count, it’s never a good idea to run on Narvaez.
The dumbest is running on Abreu ….. they need to respect the arm!!
FPG
Millar probably does very well financially doing IT on MLB TV. It would not surprise me if he was offered the main role on NESN. Very charismatic and has great stories. Him shutting up Shaughnessy(?) is the best of all time.
“Don’t let us win tonight”. IMO.
Can’t stand the curly haired boyfriend . Carl Everett. That and breaking up Mussina’s perfect game .. best things he ever did.
cdc – Very cool how much you know and going back that far, so refreshing!
Even if you had typed CHB I’d know who you meant, just like G38 ;O)
I was at that Mussina game, Sunday Night Baseball, right behind home plate. One of the rare times when a loss was memorable in a good way.
FPG
Why did Mussina retire after his 1st 20 win campaign in 08??? He had a phenomenal season. Truly one of the best pitchers of his generation. I remember the sox allegedly trying to sign him , ultimately signing with the Yankees.
cdc – He retired because he’s from Stanford, so very smart. He wanted to spend time with family, and already accomplished everything he wanted except a ring which wasn’t as important to him.
You know about the Curse of Mattingly, right?
Well there was also the Curse of Moose. He joined the Yanks the year after they won their 4th title in 5 years, then in his 8 years with the Yanks they never won a title, then the year after he retired they won the title.
Yes the Sox tried hard to get Moose, when he signed with the Yankees the original DD (Duquette) then set his sights on Manny Ramirez. They did a behind the scenes documentary about it all.
Well the Sox swept the first place astros and beat 2 of there best SP’s
Quinn – That was their best series of the season!
San Diego is no place for a King.
Never thought I’d be agreeing with a real first place team
I don’t foresee King leaving SD. A deal will get done.
You probably didn’t foresee Soto leaving either.
There’s a large gap between Soto’s lead up to free agency and King’s. I think it’s possible if the Padres have a deep postseason run.
King goes back to the Yankees after 2025. Watch it happen.
Too early to predict.
Keep an eye on the Red Sox, Mets, and the Phillies also though.
I knew they couldn’t afford Soto for the long term. Glad they got a good return on the trade – which included King.
Can’t afford King either.
They couldn’t afford Pivetta either… and yet here he is
Totally depends on health the rest of the year, but I don’t foresee the Pads being able to compete for him on the open market with their budget constraints.
@16
That’s my read as well, unfortunately. King is only sticking around in SD if he wants to settle for less than what his market will bear.
It will be interesting to see what that market is based on 1 full season as a starter and being injured for most of his walk year.
@Moff_Nick
My favorite example of the crazy prices for pitching remains how Mike Clevinger, coming off getting lit up in the 2022 NLCS after a mediocre season coming off Tommy John surgery, still somehow managed to get $12 million from the White Sox with a second mutual option year. If there was ever a time a pitcher should have not been able to score an eight-figure contract, it was then.
Nick – Any time I see the word “thoracic” I cringe, it usually means the end of a pitcher’s effectiveness.
And oh yeah, the whole Tyler Thornburg thing …. I’m still not over that one.
I keep reading about budget constraints and then they keep spending. They are just a couple million under the third CBT tier now and I have read that they have anywhere between $55 and $70 million coming off the books at the end of the season depending on options. Can you explain what budget constraints you mean?
The only budget constraint was a desire to get under the luxury tax and reset the penalties. But then ownership decided to give preller the green light to take another swing this year.
Yes the reset was last year, not this year. When the big media market big spenders in baseball do a reset it’s called smart budget management, when the small media market Pads do it, folks assume they’re broke for some reason.
Steve Phillips agrees with you. Dan O’Dowd said that he was gone at the end of the season.
Would love for King to stay in San Diego.
(What is not to like about the team, the stadium the city, the climate?).
But, I wouldn’t be surprised if he signed elsewhere. Some pitching needy team will over pay for him.
outinleftfield is the same guy as Pads Fans, websoulsurfer, PLTuna, BaseballisLife and Baseballisthebest.
Yes, as everything there will be a price. Hearing he misses his family and friends in the Northeast.
Padres – Blue Jays world series tilt is looking better each day…
Blue Jays fans come out of hiding only twice as often as cicadas
FanGraphs has the Jays with the third highest WS win probability at 8.9% and the Padres 9th at 5.9%.
So, how likely is it that they meet?
If we assume a 50% chance of winning if they reach, the Jays’ chances of getting there are 18% and the Padres 12%.
The probability of those two events both happening is (.18 * .12) 2%.
Highest likelihood WS, Dodgers (19.9% to win) vs Jays (9% to win), is (.4 * .12) 5%.
How likely is it that Fangraphs is correct?
oilf
I don’t know. I’ve not seen any study of that.
Almost certainly more correct then guessing.
You can do that study if you’d like.
Already did. It’s not very likely.
If you want accurate predictions, look to the largest betting houses.
oilf
“Already did. ”
I don’t believe you. Not at all.
Please share your results and methodology.
You won’t. You don’t have any.
I will take a swing at that. According to their published odds, Fangraphs has been within plus or minus 10% on their mid-season playoff predictions 42% of the time over the last 10 years.. I allowed for a big margin for error to give them the benefit of the doubt. You or I can guess that well by mid-July.
Bally’s has been 70% accurate with their line predicting playoff teams on the day after the All Star break since 2000. I didn’t have to look that up. I chart it on a spreadsheet every year because I lay 8-12 bets on that line every season.
oilf
1) I’ll give an immediate mea culpa since you actually appear to have tracked what you said you tracked
2) I think I understand, but I would like to make sure, what exactly you mean by this.
“Fangraphs has been within plus or minus 10% on their mid-season playoff predictions 42% of the time over the last 10 years.”
Could you give your data or at least an example?
3) this one as well
“Bally’s has been 70% accurate with their line predicting playoff teams on the day after the All Star break since 2000”
They have been 70% accurate predicting playoff teams? In that they get 7 of 10 correct? Or something else. I don’t bet, so I don’t know much about betting lines
I sincerely hope Milwaukee emerges from the NL. Nothing would be more gratifying than having them top off a season sweep of the Dodgers with a playoff run that finally rewards years of nearly flawless player development.
dY
As a Dodger fan, they would be my number 2 pick in the NL
Since I’m here waiting for breakfast, I’ll rank my preferences (with more than minimal, but less than maximum thought).
First tier: Dodgers
Second tier: Brewers, Tigers, Mariners, Reds, Padres
Third tier: Jays, Rangers, Phillies, Mets
Fourth tier: Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Cubs
Reds, eh?
AND Padres!
Since this is merely a personal preference ranking, and not subject to objective analysis, I’d drop the Reds to the 4th tier, elevate the Brewers and Phillies to the top tier, move the Cubs to the 2nd tier, and drop the Dodgers altogether
York – As much as I’d like to see old friends Xander and Nick in the WS, it’s hard not to root for Priester and the Brew Crew.
King and pivetta can carry the padres pretty far if king can stay healthy.
King is coming back at just the right time to get the Padres into a playoff spot.
Out of all the people the Padres added at the deadline, King returning is more important for them winning I would have to think.
Can Perry convince Arte Moreno to go 5 years so we at least have a shot at signing a starting pitcher as good as King?
Money is nice and all, but I would take less money to not sign with the Angels if I were King.
“Say what? You already got three years, Perry! Go get Marcus Stroman and get out of my office!” – Arte
YBC, sadly for all Angels fans that is probably a direct quote.
Not that you would know about that PF
YBC-Doubting Stro wants to go all the way out west. I was thinking the Red Sox, Phillies or even the Mutts again.
This arguably a bigger upgrade than any of their deadline acquisitions. Just going to give a general ‘good luck’ because the NL playoffs are going to be an absolute dogfight.
I hope he’s moved past this issue and can be effective the rest of this season. It’d be a huge boost to have King at the top of the rotation.
A playoff rotation of King, Pivetta, Cease, and Darvish. With Cortes, Sears, and Vasquez waiting in the wings if needed.
I like it.
Playoff Cease makes me vom.
Small sample sizes are what they are. See Yu Darvish.
Didn’t do well in the 2021 ALDS with Chicago either.
regular season he’s only good 1 out of 3 starts it seems. I’d let him go 4 innings then bring on the pen
Preller has never paid the top of the market for pitching. Which is hard to blame him for not doing so because of the injury risk.
If king will sign for around 20m per I think he will be a padre. The issue is if he pitches well down the stretch he could get 30+m from a team in free agency.
This is his one chance at a big pay day so I doubt he signs for under market value. If he pitches so so down the stretch perhaps the padres will be able to bring him back.
The padres will need to add another starter this offseason and preferably one that can pitch as a 1-3.
Next year they currently have Pivetta, Musgrove (wants to pitch this year still), darvish, Sears and Vasquez. They may stretch out one or both of morejon and Miller. That would hurt the pen especially if Suarez opts out. Though they would still have Adam, Estrada and Morgan for the back end (pending morejon/miller).
Padres do have around a net if 50m (if Suarez opts out) coming off the books next year with very few spots needed to be filled. Basically one bat, bench and a starter.
Returning next season
Tatis
Manny
Merrill
Xander
Laureano
Sheets
Cronenworth
Fermin
Hole at DH/1b depending on where sheets plays
Preller will probably wait out the pitching market like last year and try and sign a guy desperate come February. Almost always one lingering out there.
Yeah, this off-season will be quiet for SD… for hitters, they just need a 1B/dh, they can wait out the market for just the best hitter you can get for a couple Mil (unless Arraez takes a bargain deal) & a RH hitting platoon bat to pair with Sheets, also should just be 1 or 2 M.
For the rotation…3 spots are set ( pivetta, darvish, musgrove). You have sears/vasquez/waldron as back end depth. If they can’t extend King, I think they’ll just wait out the market looking for a deal like happened w pivetta/ sign some minor league contract for come back guys to compete for a roster spot..
Preller is a like a Rockstar GM.
Of course right before they play the Sox lol