For the second straight season, the Phillies won the NL East and earned a bye to the NLDS, only to lose in four games. The Phils again face some big decisions about retaining or replacing members of their core, and the bigger-picture question might be if this core group needs a larger shakeup to get the team over the top.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Trea Turner, SS: $218.19MM through 2033
- Bryce Harper, 1B: $144MM through 2031
- Aaron Nola, SP: $122.86MM through 2030
- Zack Wheeler, SP: $84MM through 2027
- Nick Castellanos, OF: $20MM through 2026
- Cristopher Sanchez, SP: $19MM through 2028 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2029; Phillies also have $15MM club option for 2030 with $1MM buyout)
- Taijuan Walker, SP: $18MM through 2026
- Matt Strahm, RP: $7.5MM through 2026
Option Decisions
- Harrison Bader, OF: $10MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
- Jose Alvarado, RP: $9MM club option for 2026 ($500K buyout)
2026 financial commitments (assuming Alvarado's option is exercised):$177.34MM
Total future commitments (assuming Alvarado's option is exercised): $642.54M
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jesus Luzardo (5.165): $10.4MM
- Edmundo Sosa (5.140): $3.9MM
- Alec Bohm (5.106): $10.3MM
- Garrett Stubbs (4.148): $925K
- Brandon Marsh (4.078): $4.5MM
- Jhoan Duran (4.000): $7.6MM
- Bryson Stott (4.000): $5.8MM
- Tanner Banks (3.092): $1.2MM
- Rafael Marchan (3.006): $1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Bohm, Stubbs, Marchan
Free Agents
- Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez, J.T. Realmuto, Max Kepler, Jordan Romano, Walker Buehler, David Robertson, Tim Mayza, Lou Trivino, Bader (assuming mutual option is declined)
Coming off a 56-homer season, Kyle Schwarber is understandably looking to cash in, and could aim for a five-year free agent deal that would cover his age 33-37 seasons. That would be a hefty commitment to a player who is basically a DH-only bat at this point in his career, though it is possible that in exchange for a longer term, Schwarber and his reps at Excel might be willing to bend a little on the contract's average annual value.
Speculating on the tenor of negotiations could be a moot point, however, since there is a sense that the Phillies are dead set on bringing Schwarber back. There has been public interest in a reunion from Schwarber himself, from president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, and (most importantly) from owner John Middleton. The Phils have been more than willing to pay top dollar to retain most of their top talents during the Middleton era, ranging from Zack Wheeler's extension to new contracts with Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto after first letting them test free agency.
Realmuto is back on the market again now that his five-year, $115.5MM deal is up. It was money well spent, as Cal Raleigh is the only catcher in baseball to post a higher fWAR than Realmuto's 17.8 number over the 2021-25 span. On the flip side, Realmuto's production at the plate dropped in his age-34 season, as he hit .257/.315/.384 with 12 homers (for a 94 wRC+) over 550 plate appearances in 2025.
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Two thoughts:
Bohm as a non-tender candidate is confusing.
JT needs to return. His value to that pitching staff cannot be overstated
Yeah, I tend to agree on both counts. I can’t see the Phillies just letting Bohm go for nothing other than to save money. Think that’s all industry speculation that someone posted and others have run with.
There’s a decent chance Miller would outplay Bohm immediately when you consider fielding and baserunning. Bohm can be a clutch hitter but his ceiling is modest.
That’s placing a lot of expectation on a guy who’s never faced major league pitching. Bohm is a successful MLB player; he’s a regular, has been consistent. He is better than 98% of Aidan Miller’s peers.
I hope Miller succeeds, turned into an all-star and even more…but until he is actually successful at the MLB level, there’s no realistic way predict he’ll outplay someone who has already been successful.
Looks like Dombrowski has some serious decisions to make this offseason – (1) does he keep core group together, (2) does he swing for the fences & go after Tucker & top of rotation SP, (3) does he find a way to get Skubal, (4) re-sign Realmuto & Suarez, (5) rebuild the roster & while acquiring new talent outside Phillies
Phillies can’t just settle for playoffs & continue getting knocked out. They have to reach World Series
If the Cardinals took Castellanos in return for Arenado and you subtract the 5 million the Rockies are kicking in, Arenado would be a cheaper option for 2025 than Alec Bohm. The question for the Phillies would be, is an aging Arenado a better option even at a lower price point?
The Cardinals also might not be interested in a malcontent like Castellanos, but they could always release him at basically the same cost as money they would have to eat to facilitate any other Arenado trade. If the reports that Nootbaar’s heel problems are serious, they might at least have playing time to offer.
Do you not remember the bad blood that is Castellanos and the Cardinals? No thanks.
I do. I don’t want him either, but it’s one year and it accomplishes a larger goal. Like I said, they could always release him if there’s a problem.
The way Arenado has looked, and how his career has gone, Castellanos might be the better player right now. I want the Phillies to have nothing to do with Arenado. No thank you.
Tom, I agree with you. I would also add that moving on from Bohm (who I like) frees up for 3B time for Kemp and Sosa. I’ll take those 2 over Arenado. Sosa needs to be in the lineup more often, that’s a way to achieve it. This is before even considering Miller’s future presence.
Agree with you except for moving on from Bohm. I don’t get that. Why? He’s been a regular player, successful, and doesn’t require a long-term commitment right now.
Sosa is a quality player but when he gets too much playing time, he gets exposed.
Professor Osbourne,
In reference to your assertion, ” Arenado would be a cheaper option for 2025 than Alec Bohm.
At what prestigious university did you matriculate and study mathematics?
1) We’re now talking about the 2026 season. As you may recall, 2025 went down in flames.
2) In 2026, Arenado is contracted to earn $27 million, of which $5 million will be paid by Colorado. That leaves $22 million to be paid by the team he plays for. In 2025, Bohm was paid $7.7 million. With arbitration, he is expected to make $10 – $11 million in 2026. Using first-grade subtraction, $22 million -$11 million = $11 million – the amount Arenado will be making more than Bohm in 2026. So, Arenado will be making twice what Bohm will. How does that make Arenado a cheaper option than Bohm?
3) Perhaps the most important math is the 2025 batting averages of the two. Arenado – .237. Bohm – .287. Arenado’s career in declining. Bohm’s career is just starting. Forget Bregman and Arenado. The Phils are lucky to have Bohm, especially since his best days are still ahead.
If they are considering moving on from Bryce Harper I really believe a trade with the Yankees can work if they take back a contract. Example would be and most Yankee fans would say I’m insane but to trade Ben Rice and Stanton last two years even if he refuses a trade they can release him and Philly can eat the difference from Harper contract. Now Yankee fans will say why the hell trade a young upcoming first base/catcher under team control who put up similar offensive numbers to Harper and I do agree with that especially since Joel Sherman reports Harper contract is under water with 6 years left at 33yo. This is why taking back a contract like Stanton’s has to be involved.
Phils are not trading Bryce. Period. NTC; straw that stirs the drink; Don’t let the internet rumors take hold of your brain.
How is Harper’s contract underwater? He missed 30 games and still put up a 3.5 WAR season with a 131 wRC+. His year was below his norms and he’s on the wrong side of 30 so as is expected everything is going to trend backwards, but underwater is an extreme overstatement, especially since his contract isn’t exactly a hindership.
Zero chance they trade Harper. Dombrowski simply said he didn’t put up elite, MVP caliber numbers, and Harper didn’t. Very few players return to that peak after injuries and down years. I remember arguing with someone on this site in the spring about Trout and how they believed he was going to be an MVP, 10+ WAR player again. Nope, not happening, and it likely won’t with Harper either. But he’s still a very good player, one of the best in the league, and—at this point in his career—a bargain at what he’s owed)..
Why would they trade Harper? His contract is a bargain!
ballz, The Phils will be trading Harper, but not until he says so. He has a full no-trade codicile in his contract.
Fret not, though. Harper will be requesting a trade a few years from now when the Athletics finally have their stadium in Las Vegas, Harper’s hometown.
Just a hunch.
They will certainly not perform a rebuild – only fantasy saberdudes go there for whatever reason. Silly as heck to even bring it up in a serious manner.
They are transitioning some youth into the mix, which will hopefully become a yearly occurrence. They spent big in the interim to give us a competitive team while they rebuilt the farm and now they have to make the prospect production filter in to bring youth, energy and performance while it give the payroll some relief over time.
They almost have to resign JTR; Schwarber is a close 2nd only due to potential term and cost on the open market. Love the guy but a 33 year old DH for 5 years at $30M is kinda’ crazy. Ranger is gone unless his price point comes down as they simply don’t have the payroll room.
I think that DD surprises us with a move or two over the winter; no doubt that they want to shake up the mix a bit with the supporting players.
carver,
You’re right that the Phils have to resign Realmuto. He is too important to this team, especially since replacing him will be very hard to do. Schwarber and Suarez are history.
Painter, Rincones, McGarry, and Bohm to the Jays for Barger and Yesavage. Add complementary pieces as necessary.
lol why would the Jays do this?
dunsel, Yesavage in not going anywhere. Remember the name. You’ll be hearing about it a lot for the next decade or so. You’ll probably even hear it used in the same sentence with Cy Young a few times.
If there’s a world where they can trade Nola, Casty, and Bohm… and Schwarber won’t budge on 5 years….
Crawford is your CF. Harper goes back to RF. Marsh/Kemp/Rojas/Sosa are your LF unless they get another vet. But sink or swim with these 4 guys figure out who might be at least somewhat capable.
Sign Pete Alonso at 1B, sign Bregman at 3B, trade for Brent Rooker as your DH. Play him in the OF to give other guys DH days.
Resign JT.
Bring up Miller to platoon with Stott mid season if he still sucks.
Resign Ranger. Keep Alvarado if the reliever market isn’t looking favorable.
Sounds a lot like the Eagles’ “Dream Team”…so many moving parts, bringing in different talent, and it all implodes. No thanks.
A’s have interest in Bohm, we apparently asked for Mason Miller lol. Rooker should be get-able, over 30 DH with 78M/5 years left and it’s the A’s. Attach a decent prospect if need-be. All three of these guys are known quantities and they fix the RH power issue.
Bregman is just money. Alonso is just money. Same with Ranger and JT.
I have no idea if they can trade Nola but he makes what just 24M a year for a 1-3 starter on pretty much every team? Casty, they have to eat money to ship away that’s a given.
This reply simply states HOW they could accomplish all that. I never suggested they couldn’t. What I said was that there are so many moving pieces, I doubt it would work out the way you imply. Doing all that, I’d see the Phillies falling apart like the 2012 Eagles did, the so-called “Dream Team ” (credit Vince Young).
However, I do disagree with some of your rationale. The A’s are unlikely to trade Rooker, especially not for salary relief. (They need to be at a certain threshold, a revenue-sharing recipient, to avoid penalties from MLB.)
Also, don’t want Alonso. I think he’d be an awesome signing for a year, and he’d put up great numbers but then fall apart and his contract would be an albatross.
The Phillies need work this offseason but not a complete overhaul that likely would make them a worse team.
Well ya, that’s why I started my OP off with “if there was a world” it’s an undertaking. I don’t think you’d have a fall-a-part like the Eagles. They still have Bryce, Trea, Wheeler, Sanchez, Luzardo, and Spyder. The core is MVP, CY Young, Batting Champ, and Best Closer in Baseball type of a core. But a lot of change doesn’t always work, but I would take WS champ 3B, and two RH power bat AS players on any roster and expect it to workout.
Dombrowski will probably in all honesty do Jack.
Move Harper back to the OF? He hasn’t played more than a handful of games out there since 2022 for a reason.
He moved to 1B because of an injury. I’m not the only person saying move him to RF again.
The Phillies are apparently committed to Harper as their baseman. Fans who say move him back to right field don’t have a say.
Harper moved to 1B, and took hold of the job. He has become a really good defensive 1B in very short order. He was already moving from average plus to average in RF, and the elbow surgery moved that timeline up, along with the Rhys injury. Even his presence out there is bigger being closer to the action.
Now, at age 33 there is no reason to move him back unless it is in a pinch. They love him there, and he is less prone to injury there as well. Gotta’ protect the franchise player entering the latter phase of his career and he is most useful at first to almost any real baseball person.
Just because people are voicing a bad idea doesn’t mean you should parriot it.
Harper was starting to grade poorly in the OF last few years he played there, whereas he grades well at 1st, better than Pete Alonso. This is to say nothing of the fact that he hasn’t played more than 8 game in the OF since 2022. You put Harper in the OF you also than need to open up the DH spot for him to play at least 30% of his games there.
As for your other comment.
No one is taking Nola w/o the Phillies eating a lot of money. Dude is owned 122m over 5 years (age 33-37) and just put up a -0.3 bWAR/0.9 fWAR season. If you go to baseball savant you’ll see that ALL of his advanced stats have been trending backwards since he peaked 2022, and bottomed out pretty badly in 2025. For someone to take that contract the Phillies would probably have to eat around 70-75 mil of it and receive an underwhelming return, so why not just hold onto him and see if he can bounce back some.
I agree with you on the “its just money”, sign JT, sign Alonso (DH), sign Bregman, sign Ranger.
The injury was the excuse. Only Nick had been a worse OF.
No way Harper at his age moves back to right. He’s a very good first baseman.
He is a good 1B. But look at who is available. They aren’t getting Bellinger or Tucker in all likelihood and they are trying to trade Casty. Bader will opt out. And every OF available is like a Kepler level guy. Unless you wanna buy a out of no where career year on a guy like Grisham. Best bang for your buck would be Alonso or Bregman.
Folks in the media have been discussing Bryce moving back to RF since the end of the season. So “fans” are talking about it, but if you analyze their options it’s in the realm of possibilities. It’s not a 0% chance.
geebs, Harper has become a better than expected defensive first baseman. There is no way he is ever going back to the outfield. The only place he may go would be DH if the Phils are able to acquire an slugging first baseman with good defensive skills, and if the Phils decide not to go with a rotating DH by committee to give their older players a rest from defense one day a week.
Nobody wants Harper back in rf. Just stop
If the Phillies truly believe Harper has declined from elite to merely great, there’s less reason to worry about the small difference in health outcomes between 1B and RF. If they re-sign Schwarber, they still need to find a cleanup-caliber RHH. That’s much easier in this 1B market than the OF. Even a reunion with Hoskins would be a two-win upgrade on Castellanos.
I also wonder if it makes sense to burn the future on one throw. In theory, Painter for Skubal should exceed the Tigers hopes in a trade, and adding secondary pieces could be a way for both clubs to address other problems. Few if any clubs would be willing to put a prospect of Painter’s caliber on the table. Fwiw, I can’t imagine the Tigers trading Skubal even if they’re getting good expected value.
It’s tempting to look at Painter, Miller, and Crawford as the bridge to the future, but that’s an awfully narrow path to tread with all their payroll commitments. The rest of the farm system is close to barren aside from possibly positionless hitter Aroon Escobar. They have the resources to continue to develop interesting guys like Otto Kemp and Jean Cabrera, but those are better deployed as complimentary pieces rather than regulars.
Painter for Skubal may be a theory, but its lacking sound reasoning. Trading Skubal will not be Detroit’s first choice, and trading a back to back Cy Young Award winner for a single prospect, no matter how good, is never going to happen. There will be several suitors, and many of those prospects may not have missed ’24 due to injury.
That might depend on Skubal’s willingness to accept an extension. The best comps are Crochet, Burnes, and Sale. Crochet and Sale cost more because they were willing to sign extensions. In the case of Sale, Kopech was a similar prospect to Painter, and Moncada was better yet. For Crochet, the Red Sox didn’t part with any prospects of that ilk, but they did still pay a handsome fee.
Comparatively, the Orioles only traded a solid middle-infield prospect and a damaged pitching prospect for Corbin Burnes.
In a recent mailbag, Dierkes indicated lesser prospects than Painter as a plausible centerpiece for Skubal.
I think you overestimate the number of teams that align on a Skubal trade. The team has to be comfortable trading future for present value at a bad return. They have to be comfortable dealing MLB-ready pieces with excess club control. Those pieces have to play positions the Tigers need. I see this Painter concept, maybe something like Rushing/Sheehan, maybe something involving Rutschman, Baty/McLean maybe?
That’s just about the end of the list, and I’d be passing on two of those ideas from the Tigers perspective. I wouldn’t want to be buying high on McLean, and Rutschman doesn’t feel like enough club control coming off a weak season. Not to mention the pieces the O’s could spare with him don’t really help in 2026.
Another thing I haven’t seen discussed—Miller is a passable shortstop. Why not deploy him at second base with Stott sliding into a frequently-used utility role? At least for 2026. Then Bohm walks and you reset plans.
With the age of their roster, maximizing for Miller’s long term success might not maximize for the Phillies championship aspirations.
brad, the Phils must bring up Miller and Crawford this season. Fortunately, they can construct a formidable and affordable outfield around Crawford and Bader, and have the flexibility to play Miller somewhere in the infield. The Phils can either trade Stott or use him as a utility player, or move Turner to the outfield which was his original position. Turner, Crawford, and Bader in the outfield, and Bohm, Miller, Stott, and Harper in the infield would work.
The OF was not Turner’s original position. He was a shortstop his entire life and then the Nationals had a need in CF so they approached Turner and gave him a choice…play SS in the minors or CF in the majors. He could handle it, but it was not his first position.
I disagree with the premise of your first sentence. They would *like* for Miller and Crawford to be ready, but neither is a ‘can’t miss’ prospect. They’ll be ready when they’re ready, and wishing won’t change that.
You’ll find plenty of scouts who think Crawford is a 5th OFer. It’s pretty clear (to me, at least) that the club should either hand him a role or trade him, but the point is there’s no guarantee he can outperform replacement level. A backup plan needs to be in place (I happen to think a Rojas/Marsh/Kemp platoon in LF/CF is adequate backup).
Miller might be ready. He might need another year. We have to see how he looks in Spring Training. He flashes issues with passivity–a trait that tends to be associated with difficulty adjusting to the Majors. He’s struggled to hit for much power despite his scouting report reading as power-over-hit. His Triple-A exit velocities (in a very small sample) were terrible. I want to see him early next year, but he might simply be overmatched. He’ll only be 21 at the start of next season.
One last note, I’d be surprised if Bader is back. His Phillies tenure was fantastic, but it sure looks fluky. I imagine he’ll be looking around Jurickson Profar’s contract(3/$42MM)–after all, Profar also had a successful, ~4-win age-31 season after around a half decade spent mostly struggling or injured. While Bader gets bonus points for his center field defense, Profar had the advantage of his batting stats reading as believable. Bader’s barrel rate doubled, but the rest of his profile barely budged.
All the comments about how much the Phillies need to change don’t seem to realize just how good the Phillies were this year. They were literally a bone-headed move by Thomson—sending Robertson back out there in game 1 after getting out of the 6th inning—from playing game 1 at CBP tomorrow night—and that’s without their best pitcher. They don’t need a major overhaul.
The team is an interesting situation, because the continued postseason failure should dictate that it is foolish to just keep running the same players (and coaches) back and hoping that something different happens. The outfield is so bad, and the drop off in catcher is so dramatic, that I think signing JT should be the priority and that they should move on from Schwarber and address that outfield mess.