The Phillies are now in offseason mode after getting dropped by the Dodgers in the NLDS. The outfield is going to be a key focus this winter but there are other details to be ironed out. On left-hander José Alvarado, the Phils will have to decide between a $9MM club option or a $500K buyout, a net $8.5MM decision. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said yesterday, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, that he would be surprised if Alvarado is not back on the roster next year.
That’s not a firm commitment but it certainly seems like the most likely outcome is Alvarado’s option being picked up. That always seemed likely, as the option price is fair for a pitcher of Alvarado’s quality. On the other hand, it was reasonable to wonder if Alvarado’s 80-game PED suspension annoyed the club enough that they would let him walk. But it seems they will move past that and bring the lefty back for another year.
Dating back to the start of 2022, Alvarado has given the Phils 180 innings with a 3.25 earned run average. His 10.2% walk rate in that span was high but he struck out 31.7% of batters faced and got grounders at a strong 50.1% clip. He earned 32 saves and 48 holds in that time. As seen on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, 15 relief pitchers got $9MM or more last winter. Even Jordan Romano, who was a big question mark after an injury-marred 2024, got $8.5MM. Given those market conditions, picking up Alvarado’s option makes plenty of sense.
Elsewhere on the roster, infielder/outfielder Otto Kemp is slated for multiple surgeries, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Gelb notes that Kemp fractured his kneecap when he fouled a ball off himself on June 17th, though he never went on the injured list. He will now be undergoing surgery to repair it, in addition to a minor surgery to clean out some damage in his left shoulder. It’s unclear what sort of recovery timeline he is facing.
Kemp made his major league debut this year and stepped to the plate 218 times. His 5.5% walk rate and 30.7% strikeout rate were both bad but he launched eight home runs. His .234/.298/.411 slash translated to a 95 wRC+, indicating he was 5% worse than league average.
In the minors, Kemp’s walk and strikeout rates have been far better, so perhaps better results can be expected going forward. It’s also possible the knee injury knocked his numbers down somewhat. He played the non-shortstop infield positions and left field, so he could be a useful utility player for the Phils.
There are also some noteworthy developments related to the Philadelphia coaching staff. Charlotte Varnes of The Athletic was among those to cover those. The Phils are planning to hire a new bench coach to work under manager Rob Thomson this winter. Current bench coach Mike Calitri will stay on the staff but with a new title of major league field coordinator.
Back in 2022, Calitri was working for the Phils as a quality assurance coach. That summer, manager Joe Girardi was fired. Thomson, then the bench coach, was promoted to the skipper’s chair. Calitri then replaced Thomson as the bench coach.
Dombrowski also mentioned that Thomson will likely get an extension at some point. The skipper is only signed through 2026 and it was reported earlier this week that he would be back next year but clubs generally don’t like to have managers in a lame duck situation. “(Thomson) was already signed for this coming year, so it really was just a matter of moving forward and having conversations in regards to a lot of different topics with him,” Dombrowski said, per Varnes. “I do think, at some point, we talked that I would look at adding a year into his contract (this winter).”
Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images
Extend Thomson. Dumb Alvarado. Don’t depend on Kemp. Keep Alec Bohm. Stop listening to idiot fans who’re frothing at the mouth wanting wholesale changes to a team that won 96 games.
Yep, maybe Wheeler would have helped in playoffs?
The starting pitchers were not the problem. Thomson struggled in Game 1, putting Robertson in a difficult position, and Kerkering struggled in Games 2 and 4. The offence was poor, scoring only one run in Games 2 and 4 — you won’t win many playoff games with one run!
The “Starting Pitching was not the problem” crowd is not looking at the full picture.
If Wheeler is healthy, that pushes Ranger or Jesus to bullpen, which means they probably use them instead of Strahm and Robertson, which probably accounts for another win or 2….which could have been the series.
The wheeler and Bader injuries were truly catastrophic for Phillies. Not saying they 100% would’ve won, but they probably get to a game 5 with them.
But the starting pitching wasn’t the problem. The bigger picture was poor decisions and not being able to hit in big spots. Dave Roberts handed them game 2 on a silver platter and they couldn’t get it done. Same old story now and it’s getting old.
The Phillies will never win a W S with Thomson as the manager. He isn’t smart enough and there is no antidote to that!!
Ranger could have and should have been used game 1 for 1-2 innings as he didn’t go until game 4 in extended relief.
Accurate… plenty of blame but he gets out managed every post season. Bad decision on the pen game 1 and then playing for the tie in game 2 was horribly wrong. And he sabotaged 2023 postseason in a big way.
Pitching wasn’t the issue with this past seasons playoff failures especially the starting pitching. It was about the worst in game manager in baseball and a lineup that couldn’t produce once again when it mattered. Now they are saddled with bad contracts and big holes to fill
Stay warm and cozy with regular season accomplishments. Means zero when the lights are the brightest.
Fair to say Harper was called out/challenged as well?
Non-Phillies fan here. What are you alluding to with regards to Harper? Thanks.
Google Dombrowski’s answer to a press question about whether he thinks Harper can ever be an elite player again..
Harper & Castellanos for Yoshida, Hicks, & Casas. Win-win?
Maybe those 3 for Castellanos and Walker.
Harper at 1st base (he will address one of the Red Sox’s poorest performing positions in 2025) and Castellanos at DH (another poor performing position in 2025, but not as bad as 1st base).
Sounds like the Philly’s want to move on without Harper. The Red Sox need a 1st baseman and have some extra cash since they traded Devers. Could be a win-win.
@BF2222 – You must be trolling. Phils do not “want to move on from Harper” at all. He is a Phillies cornerstone.
Plus, Bryce is the only player of high value in that group, while the rest are either contractual rubbish or a huge question mark. Repeating the same dumb trade idea does not make it any better.
Carver – Don’t be foolish. The Philly’s front office leaked the story about not being happy with Harper to see if there is trade interest.
Casas is an intriguing young player that has yet to live up to his potential and is controllable for 3 more years. It could be a huge win for the Philly’s if he turns out to be a 30/100 guy even if he plays marginal defense at 1st base.
And they move on from Harper’s and Castellanos’ salaries.
Carver – Turner is the cornerstone of the Philly’s and Schwarber should also be considered another cornerstone. They must resign him.
@BS2222 – So, the Red Sox would like to move on from Casas and Yoshida to address their biggest weaknesses, but we want to trade Bryce for them according to your own special trade recipe, and you call me foolish? Go away.
Phils have no desire to unload Bryce for an underwater deal for an underperforming unqualified DH, an underwater deal for a relief arm that fell apart and a who the heck knows failing prospect that his own team has already moved on from.
I guess we will find out this offseason.
Carver – I’m not a Philly’s or Ref Sox fan. I’m a baseball fan.
Harper’s stats over the past 4 year:
22: 63 Rs, 18 HRs, 65 RBIs
23: 84 Rs, 21 HRs, 72 RBIs
24: 85 Rs, 30 HRs, 87 RBIs
25: 72 Rs, 27 HRs, 75 RBIs
Schwarber’s stats over the past 4 year:
22: 100 Rs, 46 HRs, 94 RBIs
23: 108 Rs, 47 HRs, 104 RBIs
24: 110 Rs, 38 HRs, 104 RBIs
25: 111 Rs, 56 HRs, 132 RBIs
Trade Harper and sign Schwarber
Harper or Turner needs to go IMO
Dombrowski clearly is trying to light a fire under Harper for 2026. Implying that he is much better than he has shown the past two years. Which is true. Almost seems like from the time he asked for an extension and did not get it. He has not been the same person.
I just think it was an honest answer, not really a callout.. He said he was very good. He expected him to be very good next year. He was just not sure if he he will or will not return to MVP Form circa 2021 in 2026. I’m a Huge Harper Fan…I love his passion. I love how he has embraced the city. I think he has great value add in many ways beyond what he puts on the field. I suspect Dombrowski agrees and thinks his $27m contract will be a steal if he continues on as he did last year….even if he is not MVP form.
I suspect when the 2026 NL MVP Odds are released…Harper is likely not Top 5…..Do I hope he returns to MVP Form? Yes! Do I think he Can? Yes! Do I “100% Know”? Of course not….Neither does the GM.
Harper’s stats over the past 4 year:
22: 63 Rs, 18 HRs, 65 RBIs
23: 84 Rs, 21 HRs, 72 RBIs
24: 85 Rs, 30 HRs, 87 RBIs
25: 72 Rs, 27 HRs, 75 RBIs
Schwarber’s stats over the past 4 year:
22: 100 Rs, 46 HRs, 94 RBIs
23: 108 Rs, 47 HRs, 104 RBIs
24: 110 Rs, 38 HRs, 104 RBIs
25: 111 Rs, 56 HRs, 132 RBIs
Trade Harper and sign Schwarber.
They are resigning Schwarb. Harper has full no trade.
I don’t see Philly winning with an overpriced and underperforming primadonna like Harper. Dombrowski Knows that too.
People have to stop with regular season stats. Those are great for the Pirates and the White Sox. Once you become a perennial playoff team, you can only look at playoff stats. Kyle has been terrible in the playoffs. The Phillies need to add 2–3 players who have proven to be solid in the playoffs.
I agree with your opinion. I think his wrist bothered him all year. Losing Wheeler was a huge difference in 2022 they got the breaks before the series.
Alvardo stays – a one year deal for a back of the pen lefty at that price is just fine.
They kinda’ like Kemp, but more as a potential corner ute whose bat can make an impact if he gets the chance to develop and not as a starter.
They are in transition mode while still contending in a big way. They knew that they had to hit the point where they would filter in youth and not solve roster issues with the long term FA deals as the primary measure. Fans are going to be fans however and get bent out of shape.
It will be an interesting winter to watch them work, even if we are not adding big shot FA deals. I am a fan of DD who does not agree with the simplistic narrative of the armchair GM’s around here. I expect him to surprise us with something in the spirit of a trade that won’t be readily obvious.
At this point, “Marsh is the only returning OFer. Bader and Kepler are FAs. NickC will be traded for a bag of balls or cut….He is less useful than a random AAAA player. Rojas is not a ML Starter….perhaps a 5th OFer for Defenss, Base Running but not a starter on a Team with Aspirations.
I think there is definitely room for Kemp in the OF at this point, but I suspect the plan is more for him to be a 4th OFer. I suspect they hope to resign Bader. Bring Up Crawford. Marsh/Bader/Crawford will not be a Murder’s Row, but could be acceptable at the plate and give outstanding defense with 3 guts with CF range at all 3 spots. Kemp can then fill in at LF or RF as need be for injury, rest, matchup reasons . If Bader goes elsewhere, they will need to find a quality OFer somewhere. Hopefully Bader liked it enough to want to stay….It will just come down to hoping the bidding does not get crazy….you never know when folks hit the market what will happen.
The Phillies need big changes to their roster. Their high priced players, for the most part, have shown over the past 4 years that they have problems hitting elite pitching in the playoffs and the World Series.
They need to fix that and move some of those guys out in trades getting back players better suited to hit in the playoffs and that are solid defenders.
Phillies Defense needs some upgrades along with their offense.
Their power lineup is a “‘boom and bust” offense that is very streaky and slump prone.
Those issues must be addressed and corrected if the Phillies goal is a World Series Championship durng this run of contention or if they are just satisfied with Division Titles and Wild Card berths.
Cody Bellinger would look good in their OF along with Harrison Bader and top prospect Justin Crawford.
Aiden Miller should be starting somewhere in their Infield.
Andrew Painter should be in their rotation.
Phillies need to make changes and bring in some younger players also.
And, it might be time to transition to a younger, up and coming starting catcher.
Good idea, but do you know where to find one?
They had one in O’Hoppe and traded him away. Free agency is full of 30+ year olds so unless they can pull of a trade for an Adley Rutschman or one of Quero/Teel “younger, up and coming starting catchers” are in short supply
Phillies won the O’Hoppe trade.
Yup….Marchan is their “Young” backup catcher, but was hoffific offensively and a step down defensively. They do have a catcher in AA who is 25 and was a college player…so while he could get promoted this year, I believe his expected ceiling is backup catcher at best.. They have a young 20yr old catcher, but prospect sites list 2028 as his ETA….so not an option to start next year. I suspect they resign Realmuto but at a lower rate than currently because he no longer has the same value but figure out a mutually acceptable deal.
The extending of Thomson another sign Dombrowski has lost his mind. Glad to be rid of Calitri but only helps if get a bench coach who isn’t as stupid and unaware as Thomson.
I think the Phillies should target Adolis Garcia of the Rangers for RF. Garcia would help the outfield defense a ton, but he did struggle offensively this year (mainly due to injury). Could that help drive the price tag down low enough to fit into the Phillies budget? Not to mention he has had great success in big post season moments with the stick.
Harper & Castellanos for Yoshida, Hicks, & Casas. Win-win?
Harper at 1st base (he will address one of the Red Sox’s poorest performing positions in 2025) and Castellanos at DH (another poor performing position in 2025, but not as bad as 1st base).
Trying to figure out what the Phils will do to fix their roster…
spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/_/year/2026/team/phi
Suarez $11.3m will be lost va FA.
Keper $10m won’t be wanted back.
Romano $8.5 won’t be wanted back.
—
That gives them about $30m to play with.
If JT Resigns for their estimated Market Value of $13m, that actually gives them now $40m to play with.
I think $25m for Schwarber is way low….Let’s say $30m.
They now have $30m to play with.
They said Alvarado likely back…at a $9m option
So now abouT $29m
Everything I read is Bader will opt out…So I will estimate $15m for him.
Thats $9m more so leaving $20m.
Phils did not owe Robertson much…so i won’t count that as savings
Assuming various other salary bumps….Let’s say they now have $10-$15m to spend….
Not likely enough to sign any New big Name players…Unless the Owner SIgnificantly raises the GMs budget or they get real lucky and find someone to eat a significant amount of NICKs salary.
The biggest elephant in the room is Kyle Schwarber. How do you replace the monster numbers Schwarber has put up over the past 4 seasons if he leaves? Keeping him should be priority one and then worry about the rest. $30 million may not be enough to lock him up after the season he just had
Yes it is priority one and agree 30m may not be enough.
Respect to Kemp for playing through a fractured kneecap. That had to hurt like hell
The biggest problem the Phillies have Is the poor managerial decisions by Thomson.
I disagree 100%. I hope Thompson stays for years.
How many managers can have a team that chokes three years in a row and remain the manager? I’m not blaming everything on him, but he is the leader. He shows no emotion. From all accounts, he does not hold players accountable and he himself actually said he doesn’t force these guys to practice bunting or have fielding practice during the season. He basically sits back and waits for the three run home run. That’s regular season thinking, but in the playoffs, you have to manufacture. If I’m the GM, he would’ve been gone two years ago.