Brad Keller Drawing Interest As Starting Pitcher

Teams have shown interest in free agent right-hander Brad Keller as both a starter and reliever, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. It’s not clear which teams are involved, though Sherman writes that the Yankees have not emerged as a serious suitor to this point.

Keller is coming off a breakout year working out of the Cubs bullpen. The 30-year-old righty fired 69 2/3 innings of 2.07 ERA ball. He emerged as Craig Counsell’s most trusted leverage arm by the end of the season. Keller recorded 25 holds and a trio of saves while relinquishing just three leads all year. He was fantastic in the second half, allowing one run while striking out 35 hitters across 27 2/3 frames. He picked up two more saves and a hold while tossing 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs.

While the underlying metrics weren’t quite so dominant, Keller posted solid peripherals across the board. He punched out 27.2% of opponents against a manageable 8% walk rate. Keller got ground-balls at a 56.5% clip, the 10th-highest rate among relievers with 50+ innings. The only slight area of concern was a modest 10.8% swinging strike rate that checked in a little below the 11.5% league average.

Keller’s performance was obviously going to have plenty of teams interested in him as a reliever. As we noted on our writeup of the Top 50 Free Agents, it made sense that some clubs would view him as a rotation conversion candidate. Keller has plenty of starting experience. He was a starter for most of his six seasons as a member of the Royals. The 6’5″ righty found some early-career success as a grounder specialist at the back of the K.C. rotation.

His numbers tanked between 2021-23, and he underwent surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome before the ’24 campaign. Keller didn’t find much success in limited MLB looks with the White Sox and Red Sox that year. He was forced to settle for a minor league contract with the Cubs last winter. Keller looked rejuvenated in a relief role, earning a roster spot out of camp and pitching his way to the top of the bullpen hierarchy before long.

While the thoracic outlet surgery could give some clubs trepidation, there’s reason for optimism if he does return to starting. He has continued to use a five-pitch mix out of the bullpen. He had no issues handling left-handed hitters this year, holding them to a .223/.293/.277 slash with a 26% strikeout rate over 123 plate appearances. Keller doesn’t have pristine command but has shown good enough control to work into the middle innings as a starter. While he obviously wouldn’t maintain this past season’s 97.2 MPH average fastball velocity in longer stints, it’s not unreasonable to imagine him sitting 94-95 over five-plus innings.

MLBTR predicted Keller for a three-year, $36MM contract. That baked in the possibility that he could sign somewhere as a starter. That kind of move has become commonplace in recent seasons. Garrett Crochet, Seth Lugo, Michael King, Clay Holmes, Reynaldo López and Jordan Hicks are a few of the pitchers who built back to starting after years of pitching in relief.

The Braves were reportedly set to offer Jeff Hoffman the same opportunity until a flagged physical led them to walk away from a $45-48MM agreement altogether. Luke Weaver said in September that he’d be open to offers as a starter. It’s not without risk — Hicks and A.J. Puk are among the pitchers who simply couldn’t cut it because of command or injury issues — but even an outcome like the López or Holmes conversions would be a solid return on investment for a three-year contract in the $12-14MM range annually.