We’re still in the nascent stages of the MLB offseason, with only a handful of notable free-agent signings and trades thus far. Still, with the GM Meetings now in the rearview mirror, teams have laid a fair bit of groundwork for the weeks and months ahead, both on the free agent and trade markets. Kyle Tucker stands as the offseason’s top free agent, and while there’s no indication he’s close to signing, there are also some hints falling into place about his potential market.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this week that some rival teams feel the Blue Jays are the likeliest landing spot for the four-time All-Star. They’ve been a popular speculative pick early on after a deep World Series run and with only one other major long-term commitment (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) on the books. Of course, Bo Bichette could be the priority, and it’s rare for any team to sign two free agents of that magnitude in a single offseason.
Tucker is a prominent enough star that some unexpected suitors figure to jump into the fray. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that while the Orioles are prioritizing pitching this winter, they haven’t ruled out a run at Tucker. Having already acquired Taylor Ward from the Angels, the addition of Tucker would free Baltimore to dangle young outfielders Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers on the trade market in hopes of securing some controllable arms. There are quite a few pitchers of note who could be on the block this winter, and both Cowser and Beavers would intrigue clubs looking to move arms. Both are former first-round picks. Cowser has four more seasons of club control, while Beavers only debuted late in 2025 and thus has a full slate of six years of club control remaining.
Baltimore stands as a fascinating fit. President of baseball operations Mike Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when Tucker was selected with the No. 5 overall pick. The O’s don’t have anything on the books long-term, other than Samuel Basallo’s eight-year, $67MM extension. That $8.375MM annual value isn’t going to be stand in the way of any other long-term deals. Beyond Basallo, Tyler O’Neill is the only other player signed to a guaranteed deal beyond the 2026 season. His three-year, $49.5MM contract runs through 2027.
The Orioles’ long-term financial outlook is so clean that there’s no true impediment to them signing Tucker and a notable a free agent starter. That’s not to say such a scenario is likely, of course, but Baltimore’s 2026 payroll currently projects for about $105MM, per RosterResource, and that’s before potential non-tenders or trades of Ryan Mountcastle ($7.8MM projected salary), Keegan Akin ($3MM projection), Yennier Cano ($1.8MM projection) and/or Alex Jackson ($1.8MM projection) prior to tomorrow’s 5pm ET non-tender deadline.
Depending on what happens with the Orioles’ arbitration class, they could realistically see next year’s projected payroll drop into the $93-100MM range by tomorrow evening. The opened the 2025 season with a payroll around $164.5MM. We’re certainly not accustomed to seeing Baltimore spend like this, but this is also only the second offseason under new owner David Rubenstein. Elias has already publicly stated that he is “fully prepared” to sacrifice draft picks by signing free agents who rejected qualifying offers, and for all the focus on pitching, it was reported more than a month ago that the O’s also covet an impact bat — likely in the outfield.
None of this is intended to frame the Orioles as any sort of favorite to sign Tucker, to be clear. Far from it. However, the fit and logic behind it are probably more sensible than one might think at first glance.
Other clubs will still loom in the market. Passan cites the Phillies as a possible landing spot, should Kyle Schwarber sign elsewhere. The Yankees have been linked to both Tucker and a Cody Bellinger reunion. GM Brian Cashman indicated this week that Trent Grisham’s decision to accept his qualifying offer will not impact the team’s pursuit of Bellinger. Presumably, then, that thinking extends to Tucker as well. The Dodgers have also been linked to Tucker, though Passan doubles down on his prior reporting that their interest would “likely” be on a shorter-term but high-AAV deal — the type we rarely see taken by the consensus top free agent in a given offseason.
Tucker hasn’t preformed at an elite level since 2023. I wouldn’t think of anything above 6 years or $30+ million. Beli should be cheaper.
He performed at an elite level in 2024 until a fluke injury derailed that season. He probably would’ve finished top 2 in MVP voting had he played the entire season.
I stand corrected. Figures I’d “Ewing” my first comment that made it to the top. Should have do double checked. That being said, last year was good but not $400 elite.
Yeah and the Windy city ain’t great for LH bats. Still put up about 10 WAR combined
Two fluke injuries in back to back years. 2024 he was out 3 months with a shin bone bruise. Wondering if it was actually broken to be out that long for a bruise.
Two fluke injuries should give a team reason to think twice. I love Tucker and while the Red Sox might be the only team that doesn’t presently need him, I could have seen them trading both Duran and Abreu if they got Tucker. I just wouldn’t consider a deal worth more than six years unless either the AAV was much less than expected or there was injury protection built in. Since neither will happen, I’m hoping whomever signs him uses up their budget to make it easier for Boston to improve the team elsewhere. He’s just not the one I’d bet most of my cash chips on.
And it might have still been bothering him in 2025.
Would being injury prone be a good thing?
It was later revealed that he had a shin fracture. The Astros are not transparent with player injuries, same thing happened with Yordan Alvarez, misses alot of time with a seemingly minor hand injury. It turns out there was a broken bone that they didn’t discover until months later…sometimes I hate my team lol.
They misdiagnose people. That’s their obvious problem. But I feel hopeful with new medical staff coming in. A new assistant GM means medicine is transported differently, and the Astros fired their athletic trainer and they should fire a doctor on the doctor team or maybe 2.
I’m sure they’re grateful for your advice. What’s your specialty?
He had more homers than both Aaron Judge and Shohei at one moment.
Since 2022 he ranks 5th in wRC+ among players with at least 2000 PA’s
CASEY, except injuries have derailed his last two years. Everyone talks about not betting on Casas and yes they’re different players with different on-field and injury histories but the point is both had key injuries the last two years. Story also. Yet everyone is worried about Casas. Story also saw the risk of opting out yet Tucker is seeking one of the largest deals ever.
And Tucker will get it.
Two fluke injuries, and despite that ranked in the top 20 in fWAR for the last 4 seasons. Pull up his baseball savant page. Tucker should secure a massive deal
Stop looking at metrics. They don’t tell the whole story. If you want to look at Metrics though, look at his playoff stats that are not great. Either he’s been hurt in October or just hasn’t delivered due to the pressure or facing better pitching.
I guess game 1 of the 2022 world series doesn’t exist? and his performance in the 2025 playoffs doesn’t exist either? I watched the guy play for 5 years in Houston. Metrics are not an end all be all, I will give you that. But your entire argument that he isn’t elite is mind numbingly ignorant. I mean are you going to say that Mike Trout isn’t elite?
I’ll say it. Mike Trout is no longer elite. Good when healthy but not elite. And injuries matter.
Hopefully it won’t be the Yanks. His physical exams have to be sparkling.
One’s a fluke, two’s a trend.
Wait, hold on now, he’s not? Well knock me over with a feather!
How can breaking your leg one year and breaking your hand the next be a trend? Unless you’re ignorant enough to consider the word “break” a trend? Like he’s just got weak bones or something?
Tucker hit .259 in the ’25 playoffs with 1 extra base hit. Career playoff OPS of .692
Now provide the stats Tucker accumulated on the IL. Go….
Andrew, if your bones keep breaking it could be a trend which shows your bones are prone to breaking. That would be a trend.
Brittle and oft injured is a thing in sports.
Tucker was not good in the 2025 playoffs
Yes – injury prone. If he breaks, I’ll just have my middle reliever go out and belt him on the arm or leg and take advantage if in the same division.
@KnicksFanCavsFan Splendid performance (he was only elite in 2024), but can’t stay on the field.
Nor are these injuries of the “fluke” variety, given how they afflict athletes in their late 20s far more often than they do athletes in their early 20s or late teens. They also suggest Tucker is fragile in ways that players who do not suffer these injuries, are not fragile.
Tucker has never breached the 5.0 fWAR line, even in his mid 20s when he was playing 447 out of 486 games, and he declined to 4.2 and 4.3 fWAR in 2024-2025.
Not a promising trajectory, and that’s simply not an elite player. He’s a very good player, of course, who once was capable of playing at an elite level for half a year, but if you’re going into your age 29 season, you’ve played only 214 of the last 324 games, and you’ve never passed 4.9 fWAR, the odds are high that you never will.
The salary guesses thrown out for him are absurd. $400m? More than $400m–for a 4-win player? These are obviously ridiculous, but of course they’re typically offered by casual fans who think a player’s peak on average lasts into his 30s. It doesn’t.
You must not have paid attention to contracts issued in the last 16 years.
Latest?
Is that code for…..
dead?
Deadest
Media is trying to make a market for Tucker. BlueJays aren’t signing Bichette AND Tucker.
Two predictions:
1. Tucker will sign extremely late in the offseason, possibly right before spring training.
2. Tucker will get at least 9y/$360m
I agree on the figure, but if he gets 9 you might as well go 11 if it helps get it done. What are the chances he retests free agency as a 37 year old. Slightly more money and spread it out over 11. Lowers the AAV. Won’t be too bad the way inflation is rising!
Simon, your prediction better have a lot of deferred money otherwise if that’s his floor, he could be out much longer.
$40M/year?????
Lol….ruining America.
Drugs? Or the media?
Answer: The media.
If he’s not signed until right before spring training it’s probably because no one wanted to give him anything near 9/$360m. In which case he’d probably sign a short term high AAV deal with opt outs similar to the one Bregman got last offseason.
And mentioning Baltimore as a destination
But who will play corner OF in Baltimore if they don’t sign Tucker? It’s not like they have 7 other choices on the roster!
@ElGuapo77 Both will be very risky at the dollars and years being thrown around. If both deals turn sour, it could hamstring the Jays for six or seven years, never mind that the pair will be growing old at the same time as Jr.
That figures to be more than $100m a year for guys who won’t be giving you much.
There is a small chance they would if both of them are actually willing to sign (that’s probably the biggest obstacle). They have a lot of money coming off the books after the 2026 season and they could use their playoff revenue to stretch their budget for this season.
The media doesn’t have to make a market for Tucker; he already has a market.
Personally I’d rather my O’s keep Beavers around over cowser not that I dislike cowser at all. I just like Beavers on base ability even if it is a small sample size at the big league level.
Cowser has a career OBP of 40 points higher in the minors and walked a lot more than Beavers. 94 one year compared to Beavers’ 70. I love what I saw from Beavers as a rookie, but I see way too much faith being put into him by the fan base. He was playing under zero pressure in non competitive games. Only 110 ABs. Isn’t a great defender by any means (Cowser is better for example). Batted .227 and honestly a lot of his walks were more based on the pitcher not being anywhere near the zone. Still credit him for being patient though. Just insane to me to say he should automatically be a starter. Oneil if healthy can give you an OPS north of .1000 against LHP but people want to eat $32m.. why? If he’s not healthy, then he’s on the IL and who cares. If he is, then that should be your platoon with Beavers. If you can actually sign Tucker, then you sell high on Beavers or stash him in AAA. He wasn’t a bonafide star in the minors.. just had a good year in 2025
I’m hoping the offensive regression was just a sophomore slump for cowser maybe with a little blame to being banged up. But to your point Beavers is far less proven, I do like how he stepped in immediately and was productive. Admittedly it’s just hope that he continues what he did in the little time he was up here lol.
I hope people don’t take that as me advocating for Cowser over Beavers per se. Injuries or not, that K rate is unacceptable. But he’s our only CF right now. Like both guys a lot generally speaking. Taveras and bradfield are both AAA guys to start the year. They should try Jackson out there some as a backup. He’s not going to sign an extension here and isn’t good at 2B, so why cater to him
The problem with trading Cowser is that we would then have no one to play CF everyday.
Yes, I acknowledged that
I was replying to scruff there.
The O’s angle is interesting having them move young controllable fielders for arms. What arms would they get for Cowser and Beavers?
Obviously neither Skubal or Skenes, but someone like Sandy Alcantara or Pablo Lopez would probably be realistic for a solid overall trade package headlined by 1 of the 2 OFs.
We’re not really going to be in on Tucker though, which I have no problem with.
Actually maybe 1 year of skubal if they add a guy like mayo to that
The tigers might want westburg in a trade to replace Gleyber Torres
Honestly, I wouldn’t do a deal like that for 1 year of Skubal.
It might be “fair,” but I still wouldn’t do it. Ortiz, Hall, and the competitive balance pick for Burnes was probably about my upper limit for any 1 year rental pitcher in today’s game.
And the writer thinks the Yanks will carry Judge, Belli, Grisham, and Tucker? Not happening, but Tucker’s agent is leaking that all the big spenders are after him. They may be checking in but that’s not “after him”.
@NYY
Why would that be an issue? Grisham is only on a 1 year deal?. And although I wouldn’t think they would do it, they could trade Rice, Dominguez or Wells for a need and move Beli to first, Rice to C or have a slightly crowded roster until the inevitable Stanton injury. Or they could move Grish at the trade deadline.
Rice isn’t a full-time catcher. He can also use Wells showing him the ropes when Wells rests. No chance they sign both Belli and Tucker.
@Yanks
I doubt they will buy it had nothing to do with Grisham blocking them from doing so. And although I wish they just left Rice at 1b, catching is his natural position so why would he not be able to do so all the time?
Jays fan and I’m making a gross face at tuckers expected contract.
Bichette for basically half as much at second please!
Tucker for 350 – 400 million is a TRAP
Dont pay that!
Weak free agent hitting market — both these guys are going to get overpaid
@Grr arg grr With Giminez at 2B for the next 5 years, are the Jays really going to commit to Bichette at SS for 7 years?
By OAA Bichette is already the worst SS in MLB, and he’s already maxed out at around 135 games in a season. .
Their plan should include players other than Tucker and Bichette. Both are going to be absurdly overpaid.
They would be playing Gimenez at SS and Bichette at second base like they did during the World series. Gimenez is actually really good at shortstop.
Tucker’s projected contract all goes back to Soto’s contract, which is kind of insane based on the rest of the market. He’s at around $765M, and projected to go over $800M+. Until Guerrero signed his deal, Ohtani was next on the list with a present-day value of $465M, or thereabouts. Soto is guaranteed over $300M more than Ohtani’s present-day value, and likely eventually $350M more. We could almost fit Aaron Judge’s entire contract extension of $360M into the gap between Soto and Ohtani. Vlad now has a $500M deal, which I believe the Jays felt compelled to sign so they didn’t lose him knowing that Cohen was lurking wanting to add Guerrero. They didn’t want to get into a bidding war they’d lose.
I don’t see a Cohen-Yankees battle driving up Tucker’s deal similar to what happened with Soto.. I don’t see a Vlad situation either with a home town team desperate to keep him off the free agent market The market dynamics driving Tucker up into the $400M+ range doesn’t seem in play here, especially in front of a CBA negotiation and a potential lock out. History says teams are a little cautious with their money heading into a new CBA awaiting clarity.
Cautious? recent history certainly does not look that way. In 2021-2022, there was a 100 day lock out ending on March 11, 2022 Guys signed that off-season before the CBA was signed include: Corey Seager 10/325 , Kris Bryant 7/182,, Marcus Semien 7/175, Javier Baez 6/140 … not very cautious, at all. Of course, we have a full season to play before the current CBA expires. Last time (before the 2021 season), Springer got 6/150, Realmuto got 5/115, Bauer got 3/102, LeMahieu got 6/90 …
Hopefully he goes to the Dodgers since at least they have owners who don’t cry wolf when MLB is taking in billions.
I’m excited for the Dodgers to not sign him.
If we can get even decent play from a one year outfielder, it eliminates the black hole we had there last year. And last year turned it ok for them with a black hole at the plate.
On a selfish note, if some other team signs him it’ll give Dodgers fans something to point to when the “The Dodgers are signing everyone and ruining baseball” crowd wants to complain.
Because it hasn’t stopped even with Soto signing for $765m and Guerrero for $500m…
I love it how there’s still people that say that the pirates and marlins have the ability to spend as much as the dodgers and that they are crying wolf
They are still cheap franchises but they don’t bring in the same revenue, the owners don’t have the same net worth, they don’t have a massive tv deal like Los Angeles
I would never say the Marlins and Pirates have the revenue the Dodgers do.
I’m saying they are cheap and are screwing their fans from enjoying their product. They could easily do more. Not as much as some teams, but definitely more.
If a team is willing to try I respect it, regardless of spending levels. For those that don’t try? Those owners should be forced to sell. Happened with the Dodgers at one point. Why not the Pirates?
O’Neill’s contract runs through 2027, not ’28.
Yeah I don’t see Tucker signing with the Yankees at all. My guess is the Blue Jays, Dodgers, and maybe the Phillies if they trade Bryce Harper.
Won’t happen.
Dylan Beavers from Baltimore would be a nice fot for the A’s when they relocate to Las Vegas.
Jays dont need Tucker
Jays need to sign Bichette or trade for a SS
Get a true Closer and get a better, deeper bench
A guy like Polanco and or Bader and a few others
Them signing Santander was dumb!
410 Over/Under ?
Under, definitely.
This is a very strange article that I think needed another lookover and maybe a second set of eyes and possibly a recommendation to table this one for now.
There are some typos and a mention of O’Neill’s 3-year-deal running through 2028, as if he just signed it yesterday and has not played for them yet. The logic just feels off more like some other articles I stumble across. Usually stuff here is closer to news and has a stronger angle. And part of it is reporting Ken Rosenthal said the Os have not ruled it out. But think that hamburger is just a bun with nothing inside. The Os may win 162 games. Not an article.
Maybe the Os sign an expensive OF because they traded for an OF. Who by the way is about as useful as a bag of old tennis balls that had been sitting out in the rain. You got a maybe 32, 33-year old OF who strikes out 175 times and hits under .250 and seems eligible to hit a brick wall and be a player you cant play any second. For one year.
And this shifts the landscape somehow so that now the Os can make a run at a huge free agent. Cause you have acquired an aging strikeout king who cant hit on a one-year-deal. That means trade a promising young guy with 6 years of control and then ??? hey there is a space in the OF to fill because we traded a very promising young player with tons of control. The Oriole way of recent times, lets get rid of cheaper affordable good value players to sign ridiculously expensive players that could potentially be huge financial mistakes (sarcasm). Dont see it and cant connect the dots on this story.
I’m certainly no fan of the Ward/Grayson deal, but this is just a completely histrionic assessment of it.
Ward’s no worldbeater, but he’s a firmly above average hitter and he has been in every single season since the COVID-shortened season.
The key word “promising.” How many times have we heard that and the player did not amount to much. One in the hand…..
Actually played well in the majors may be a better way to describe Beavers than “promising”. At the end of the day no hitter on the Os actually played incredibly well this year so that principle of trade the promising but not sure thing guy could be applied to all of them. You could make the case to trade every single hitter that is #1 on the depth chart. I could be at peace with that with a lot of guys. But the guys I would most want to keep are Holliday Westburg Basallo Beavers. Everyone else, sure, see what you can get. But also, you dont need to trade a guy like Beavers to get a pitcher when there are so many quality FA pitchers out there. Keep the guys who look good and buy pitching instead of swap players for one.
Man I would love the Braves to sign Tucker
The over/under is like 250. I have been laughing all summer into now about $400 million projections. The only thing that would make me laugh louder is if someone actually did it
Better get your laughing shoes on then.
I’d put the O/U at $300 million myself, but I agree that many people are wildy overestimating his impending free agent deal.
I’ll be pretty surprised if he actually cracks $400 million.
Tucker floor for long term $340-360MM/10 years
short term $82-86MM/2 years
Don’t see the one year because the QO
I doubt the Orioles would outbid anyone for Tucker. I’m equally skeptical he would want to play in Baltimore. He’s accustomed to playing on contending teams.
Which the Orioles will likely be in 2026 if they are not beset by an absolutely insane number of injuries to major players in the first few weeks of the season again like they were in 2025.
I agree about them not outbidding the field for Tucker though, and I also agree with that course of action, or rather inaction.
He and Bregman will be Cubs on 4/126 with opt outs after 2 on both sides. As long as Tucker holds out that long and the Cubs can secure Bregman.
Nah….. Not gonna happen. They need to sign a starter and about five bullpen arms. Cassie in RF Shaw at third. Alcantara will be moved. A utility infielder will be signed as well. Suzuki your fourth OF and DH. Their big spends will be a closer and a starter.
I dont know if the histrionic is me or the writer of this article. But my point is just okay, I’ll meet someone halfway and say its possible Ward could have some positive value. I struggle with it cause as very special talented guys get older they drop off and I cant put him in that class. But lets just say he does .232 and 25 HRs and 170 Ks. Maybe someone thinks that is great. Lets say it is great. But its not franchise-transforming for a single year. You dont dont go out and trade a guy who is now a top 100 prospect who showed great flashes in his first experience at the major league level with 6 years of control because you have one year of Ward.
I’m just trying to say I have trouble getting from point A to point B with the logic. Trade for Ward and therefore Tucker makes sense. I think anybody who has been a serious Orioles fan under the Mike Elias era struggles with this assessment of what he may do. Because he says they have not ruled it out does not mean a lot to me and probably to many others. He can knock on a door like with Fried but low probability his type of door-knocking with players the whole league wants is going to amount to anything. Hey do you want to come play for us real cheap for a short period of time? Okay nice talking to you. Let the record show we spoke to him.
I believe the point they were making was that if, in addition to Ward, Tucker is also acquired, Cowser or Beavers could then be used as trade bait for a significant rotation upgrade (with Beavers making more sense since Cowser is currently needed to play CF everyday).
I don’t think we will actually sign Tucker, nor do I think we should, but there is some logic to the suggestion if Rubenstein wants to go full Peter Seidler Mode in pursuit of a championship before he shuffles off this mortal coil.
I think Rube is tired of reading the social media posts of all the arm chair managers saying the Os aren’t doing anything. I think he signs a big name for stupid money. Just my theory
Rumor has it…
A’s will sign him to get over the expected Min tax threshold after the CBA and get fans into the new Las Vegas Stadium
Orioles angle is interesting, but I don’t think they go after Tucker. I think the Yankees sign Bellinger. Tucker would then be either Dodgers, Phillies if they don’t sign Schwarber, or Blue Jays if they don’t sign Bichette. I really doubt the Cubs even make an offer the way things are looking.
The Orioles prospects don’t have the same luster that they did before they were mismanaged and exposed. They could get something for them but nothing like they could’ve gotten before.
I know where he’s NOT signing.
That list of absolutely NOT teams is more that 25 teams long
The Dodgers will sign him – one last transgression before the 2027 lockout!
Could see the Phillies and Orioles lining up on an Adley Rutschman trade. For fun, Topper is Canadian. Phillies take Tyler O’Niell and the 3/$49.5M owed to him, Rutschman & Akin. Orioles take back Taijuan Walker and his $18M expiring contract – plus CF Johan Rojas, 3B Otto Kemp and a pitching prospect. O’s get veteran SP, a RH bat that is much more versatile than O’Niell, cheap reliable CF to replace Mullins and free up $10M in ‘26 (triple that amount in ‘27) and sign whoever they want (Kyle Tucker and Ranger Suarez?) Phillies get their long term Catcher, a position they covet, plus RH bat to replace Schwarber and/or compliment Marsh, plus a LHRP.
Kemp would have to be changed to Crawford for that trade to make sense for Baltimore. And I’m a Phillies fan. I do think Rutschmann is falling off but that trade has no upside value to them.
You must be a Phillie fan! it would be the only explanation for dumping your junk (Walker, Rojas, and Kemp) on another team., none of whom can be relied upon.
Your swapping bad contracts in O’Neill and Walker, which means you want the O’s to take Kemp and Rojas for Rutschman(LOL). Unless the pitching prospect is Andrew Painter, the O’s wouldn’t even listen to that offer!
Oh, and BTW, Keegan Akin is a very solid left-handed reliever who can pitch anywhere from innings 5-9.
The Orioles need a lot of help. Tucker could go a long way in that, although I’m not sure what you would do with Tyler O’Neil. They also need a starter (or two) and their bullpen needs a near complete overhaul.
O’s have to be able to afford Tucker.
They have the money. Now whether or not they’ll spend it remains to be seen.
How come they gain money in the revenue sharing? The O’s have money, but for Tucker? I don’t think so.
Only the Cubs, Phillies, Giants, Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers I would say have enough money.
Don’t forget the Mets. Package Nimmo and prospects for pitching and sign Tucker. Major improvement for them. I think they might score a few runs with a Lindor, Soto, Alonso, Tucker lineup.
An above average player. Good plate discipline. Good BA and decent power.
$400M?
An insult to the American public.
rays
“GM Brian Cashman indicated this week that Trent Grisham’s decision to accept his qualifying offer will not impact the team’s pursuit of Bellinger. Presumably, then, that thinking extends to Tucker as well.”
“Then” adds nothing to this line of reasoning and only interrupts syntax, so it should be removed.