MLBTR Chat Transcript

Mark P

• Almost seven and a half months after the Dodgers and Cubs squared off in Tokyo, the 2025 MLB season will officially end today.*  But, almost as importantly as Game 7, it’s also time for the final Weekend Chat of the 2025 season!

  *= I guess it could technically end on November 2 if Game 7 goes past midnight, but what are the chances the Dodgers and Blue Jays play some crazy extra-inn…..oh wait

World Series Prediction

• Who you got?  Blue Jays win 4-3 or Dodgers steal the show?

Mark P

• Who wins Game 7?

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  Blue Jays (65.3% | 548 votes)

  Dodgers (34.6% | 290 votes)

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  Total Votes: 838

AA

• Do I sign cease or king this offseason?

Mark P

• Leaning towards no, since the Braves under Anthopoulos haven’t pursued longer-term pitching contracts.  Cease is also a Boras client, and AA generally doesn’t do business with Boras on a free agent level.

  King is an interesting option for a somewhat shorter-term contract with opt-outs involved.  It depends on how his market shapes up since there’s still a very good chance he lands a big multi-year deal anyway, but if he doesn’t want to fully commit himself after a shortened 2025 season, he and his reps might be open to more creative contracts.  This might open the door to a team like Atlanta to get involved.

Hang over

• So will the first day of free agency be crazy after the World Series is completed?  Which teams do you see making the most waves?

Mark P

• Free agency doesn’t begin until five days after the final game of the WS.  The offseason in general starts immediately, however, so I’d expect a lot of news on options being exercised/declined, maybe a couple of trades, maybe the Padres/Rockies/Braves announce their new manager or GM, etc.

Dean

• Who’s the splashiest surprise (ala Eflin, HSK) FA signing you could see the Rays making?  Realmuto?

Mark P

• It’s hard to see the Rays outbidding Philly for Realmuto.  I can also assume that Realmuto probably feels the Phillies are closer to winning in 2026 than the Rays are, so that’s not likely to be an option for him.

  Projecting free agent moves for Tampa is difficult since when they do strike, it tends to be somewhat out of nowhere.  Nobody saw them as suitors for Kim, for instance.  Bringing in an Eflin type of innings-eater might be a good move this winter due to the injury uncertainties in their rotation.

BrianM

• Does Pete resign with the Mets?

Mark P

• Leaning towards no.  I think it took a particular set of circumstances to reunite Alonso and the Mets last winter, and it feels like the Mets only have a certain price point for Alonso in mind.  Coming off a much better platform season, Alonso likely isn’t in the mood to take any kind of shorter-term pact this time around.

Nido

• Could Nido have earned a one year MLB contract rather than sign with the Tigers for triple A?  Seems like a good player

Mark P

• Nido is a career backup at best.  He clearly seems ok with his situation in Detroit even if it’s being the third man on the depth chart.  Taking an early contract now and giving himself peace of mind over the offseason might also be preferable to having to grind out months of waiting and seeing before finally landing another minors deal months later

IMissHelton

• Do the Rockies keep dragging their feet through the offseason? Most other teams have hired their GM/manager tandem for the future while the Rox are still “mulling their options”

Mark P

• Remember, this is seemingly the first time Dick Monfort has ever had a real GM search, after just promoting from within for the other two hires of his ownership tenure.  Makes sense that it might take a bit longer than usual, though given how much the new GM will have to do with overhauling the Rockies, every offseason day is critical.

Wisconsin O’s

• Any chance the O’s sign a big rh bat > Bo B? Please please say yes.

Mark P

• Bichette isn’t a fit on a team already loaded in the infield, and I don’t expect the Orioles to spend at the highest ends of the free agent market.  But, they should be adding some kind of righty balance to the lineup.

Mike B

• Since the trade deadline, I have had this idea of the Phillies trading Nick Castellanos (plus a mid-level prospect) to the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds (the advanced metrics seem to suggest Reynolds down season was just some bad luck, as he was still in line with his career numbers for Barrel Rate, XBA, XSLG, and XWOBA – among others). Essentially, I am banking on Pittsburgh wanting to be as cheap as possible (not a bad bet with that ownership group) and saving them $50ish million in the long term. Can you please just tell me I’m crazy so I can stop considering this as a possibility?

Mark P

• While I don’t doubt that the Pirates might deal Reynolds under the right circumstance, this particular move doesn’t make any sense for them.  Pittsburgh should be trying to add hitting, not take on a limited player like Castellanos who seems to be on the downswing.

Chaim Bloom

• Where do you see me trading donovan to?

Mark P

• I covered all things Donovan in a “looking for a trade match” post earlier this week.  Long story short, he is a reasonable fit on at least half the league, so it’s hard to pick a particular top suitor out of a very large field at this point

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/looking-for-a-match-in-a-brenda…

Padres

• If they hire Puljols will Niebla leave?

Mark P

• Only Niebla would know the answer to this question, though he is under contract for 2026.  I doubt that the Padres would want to lose him as pitching coach, and one would imagine Pujols/Hundley/whoever would also want to keep Niebla in the fold.

  I noted this in a post the other day, but it kind of works against Niebla’s candidacy that the Padres might just prefer him as the pitching coach.  Since if he’s elevated to manager, then the team suddenly has another big hole to fill on the coaching staff.

• Now, being manager obviously doesn’t mean that Niebla can’t still speak with the pitchers or give advice.  But the Padres might prefer the “if it ain’t broke…” approach

B Han

• Seems like one of the most logical trades this offseason will be Castellanos for Arenado, with maybe a few minor prospects switching teams. Your thoughts?

Mark P

• While Arenado would be more helpful to the Phillies than Castellanos, the 2026 version of Nolan Arenado doesn’t seem to be too likely of a boost for a team with World Series aspirations.

Natitude

• What are your thoughts on the Nationals going so young in their hires for the front office and head coach?

Mark P

• It made me feel old, haha

  Washington’s clearly looking for some fresh perspectives, perhaps with the idea that Rizzo/Martinez were too old-school in their approaches.  Time will tell if the changes work out, since Toboni has a lot to do to get the Nats on track.

Mike Maddux

• Do you know any extra details on why he chose an organization like the Angels? This team is in total dysfunction so I’m curious why he would leave a situation like Texas that doesn’t seem to have any dysfunction.

Mark P

• Your guess is as good as mine.  It’s strange to think that Maddux might immediately have more job security than Kurt Suzuki in Anaheim, given Suzuki’s unusual one-year contract.

deGrom

• Do the Rangers try to move deGrom this winter? How much of the contract would they have to eat? Who might bite?

Mark P

• DeGrom is owed $38MM in 2026 and $37MM in 2027, plus there’s a club option for 2028 on a value TBD.  That works out to a $37.5MM tax number for DeGrom, since remember that a traded contract has a tax value based on the AAV remaining on the deal (not the original total value of the deal).
• That’s a high enough tax figure to scare some teams off, to say nothing of DeGrom’s injury history and age.  The counter, of course, is that DeGrom is still a frontline ace if healthy, so it’ll be interesting to see how negotiations could work out or if Texas would be willing to eat anything of the contract.

  There’s also deGrom’s no-trade clause, so this might be a moot point entirely if he doesn’t want to leave Arlington.  The Rangers are trying to both balance the budget and still win in 2026, so while there’s some payroll logic in trading deGrom and selling high, it does leave another hole in their rotation

Im a Werewolf Baby

• Progressive field benefits lefties, but Cleveland’s system is ALL lefties. How have they not balanced out their system? Delauter, Bazzana, Ralphy, Manzardo, Bo, Kwan, Valera, Ingle, etc. Half your games are away and you can’t beat elite lefties in the playoffs with a lineup of all lefties. Has this been a systemic failure of hitting development/approach?

Mark P

• Teams draft for best talent available, without much or any regard to handedness.  In theory, the Guardians can always trade from this list or obtain a RHH elsewhere to get more balance in the big league lineup

Masataka

• Where am I opening day ‘26?

Mark P

• Boston.  More seemingly “untradable” contracts than Yoshida’s have been moved over the years, but barring a total salary dump, why would a team make a move to acquire him?

Chris

• Do the Dbacks sign one or two starters this offseason.  Thoughts on who?

Mark P

• Arizona’s got enough invested in its rotation that someone like Merrill Kelly might be about as high as they’re willing to go in rotation spending.  Acquiring another SP via trade is also a possibility.

Cactusflair

• Do you see the Cardinals potentially non-tendering Lars Nootbaar after his recent double heel surgery

Mark P

• Nope.  Nootbaar is a trade asset either this winter or at the 2026 deadline once he gets healthy, so the Cards won’t cut him loose for nothing.

The Hamm’s Bear

• Do you think the Giants will try to move Jung-Hoo Lee for Pitching? Say of the Joe Ryan variety?

Mark P

• Obtaining Lee doesn’t seem to fit with what the Twins are trying to do (i.e. cut payroll and rebuild).  But, if the Giants are willing to dig deep into their prospect depth chart, Ryan is a possibility, except clubs with better farm systems will have an edge in bidding wars

Cool Names Matter

• I don’t understand Boston signing Schwarber. You’d be paying his and Yoshida’s contract for him to DH. I think they need to be pot-committed to Yoshida at this point – for better or worse.

Mark P

• $36MM remains on Yoshida’s contract.  That’s not a ton of money for a wealthy team like the Red Sox to just eat in releasing him, since it’s very clear he’s the odd man out of the roster mix.

  The questions about how Schwarber ideally fits into Boston’s roster are mitigated by the fact that a) it’s Kyle Schwarber, and b) his power absolutely makes the Sox a better team

Jason

• Who makes more sense at 3B than Suarez for the  Red Sox if Bregman leaves?

Mark P

• Marcelo Mayer, assuming Story remains as the SS and the Sox don’t go with Mayer at 2B
• This isn’t to say that the Sox might not consider someone like Suarez, but finding a regular lineup spot for Mayer is a priority

paul engle

• although the dodgers may win the world series bats like mookie betts max muncy and soeewhat tommie edmond do the dodgers make a run for a really good quality outfielder

Mark P

• OF definitely seems like an offseason priority in Los Angeles.  Can’t rule out a pursuit of a big fish like Tucker, or maybe even something bold like exploring Teoscar Hernandez trades

Mariners

• What percentage chance do you see us resigning naylor?

Mark P

• In a nod to Jerry Dipoto, about 54%
• (While that answer was tongue in cheek, it might actually be true.  Seattle loves Naylor and wants to keep him, but he’ll get lots of attention from other teams around the league, so it could be about a coin flip.)

Addition not subtraction

• The Tigers should be looking to add a #2 SP not trade away an Ace SP for the ‘26 & ‘27 seasons.

Mark P

• Skubal is only controlled through 2026 but I agree with you.  Having a first-rate ace is such a rarity that the Tigers should be viewing 2026 as an all-in type of season.  Trading Skubal would ruin a lot of the momentum this team has built over the last two seasons.

Cubs fan

• the Cubs should have some payroll flexibility.  Do you see them making a big move.  If so, pitching or hitting?

Guest

• Just asking about general activity for the Cubs, what players/type of players do you think they will target this offseason?

Mark P

• I see Chicago spending relatively big on a starting pitcher or a notable position player, and then swinging a trade to obtain whichever of the SP/notable position player they don’t sign.

  The Cubs seem to be working under self-imposed payroll restrictions that keep them from shopping in the upper tier of free agency. But, the team has been willing to open the wallet to a certain extent on particular player.  Given their past deals with Suzuki and Imanaga, I wonder if any of Imai/Okamoto/Murakami would be on Chicago’s radar, and if so, does that make Shaw an expendable trade chip.

Tim

• What’s your thoughts on teams hiring managers with little to no coaching experience? Seems like a trend the past couple of seasons.

Mark P

• Track records as a manager/coach aren’t absolutely necessities to being a manager.  Frankly, getting some fresh faces and fresh ideas into the dugout is a better idea in some cases than hiring some retread skipper.

  To use someone like Vogt as an example, he was already a player who was “a coach on the field” for most of his career anyway, so it made for an easy transition.  That’s the gold standard teams are trying to achieve with these less-experienced hires.  Whereas the Giants and hiring Vitello is a step beyond that, since Vitello (as accomplished as he is in college) has never been involved in an MLB clubhouse before

Marlin fan

• What do you see is doing this offseason? Are we going to actually add or still subtract

Mark P

• The Marlins will be looking to build on what they have, though I’d be surprised if they were particularly aggressive on the trade front (and shocked if they spent notable money in free agency).

  Bendix and ownership are more apt to look at the -89 run differential than they are at the 79 wins.

JDB

• Would a trade centered around W Abreu for Issac Paredes work? Play Paredes at 1B and resign Bregman?

Mark P

• Not a true 1-for-1 deal, but yeah, Abreu-for-Paredes in some kind of package makes some sense for both teams.

Foxy

• Yankee fans seem down on Volpe, but he played through a torn labrum, which seems to be an obvious culprit for his down year.   Do you see him having a bounce back year?  Do you think he will be traded?  I don’t get why many teams insist on playing their injured players instead of just putting them on the DL.

Mark P

• The problem with viewing Volpe as a bounce-back candidate is that what exactly is he bouncing back towards?  His 2025 hitting numbers were about the same as his previous career numbers when healthy.  Obviously it’s fair to assume better health will get his defense back on track, but Volpe has yet to show much of anything at the plate over three years in the majors.

  As I’ve written before, I don’t see the Yankees cutting bait on Volpe entirely.  But, his absence at the start of 2026 opens the door for the team to start thinking about alternatives, whether that’s seeing what Caballero can do or just keeping Volpe/Caballero as pure placeholders until George Lombard is ready

Brian

• Do you really believe Schwarber can get 5yrs on FA market?

Mark P

• His numbers were so good this year and he is such a beloved figure around the game that five years seems plausible.  The Phillies will go above and beyond to try and keep him, so if the rest of the market is only willing to go as high as four years, the Phils will likely stretch to five

Twinkies & choclate milk

• What’s for lunch?

Mark P

• I made the rookie mistake of starting this chat before getting lunch made, so my stomach is rumbling.

Giants Fan

• As a Giants fan I understand starting and relief pitching is a high priority. Do you think the Giants would go after a Bo Bichetter or Kyle Tucker to improve the lineup? Thanks!

Mark P

• Sure, I totally expect SF to at least check in on those two, as they’ve explored so many other big-name free agents in recent years.  Whether they can seal the deal with either remains to be seen — in Bichette’s case in particular, the Giants would only be offering him the 2B job.

Ms fan

• Will there be any payroll flexibility or is this going to just be another cheap offseason?

Mark P

• Dipoto recently said that the starting payoll for 2026 will be around $166MM, so that gives Seattle around $34MM to spend this winter, plus potentially more at the deadline if the M’s are contending as expected.

  Now, to be clear, Dipoto didn’t mention any specific numbers — I’m extrapolating based on his broad comments about spending at the same level as in 2025.  Given how ownership gave Dipoto less than expected in offseason payroll space a couple of years ago, we shouldn’t be assuming that $34MM-ish in spending capacity is in any ways a done deal.  But, you would think that after a successful season and a long playoff run that brought some extra revenues in, ownership is more open to spending to keep the gravy train rolling.

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/mariners-aiming-for-roughly-166…

Jim

• Anything you can say about the A’s?

Mark P

• They’ve done a nice job of rebuilding their lineup, but a lot of work needs to be done on the pitching side.  Those efforts will be trickier given their ballpark situation for the next two years.

Astros fan

• Chances the astros sign cease?

Mark P

• Doubt this happens

Bravos

• What should the Braves be looking at to upgrade and get back to contention?

Mark P

• The middle infield, bullpen, and at least one more starting pitcher.  It would also help immensely if Riley and/or Harris started hitting more consistently again.

DC Fan

• Why do people keep arguing for the Nationals to trade Gore and Abrams?  Do they want to rebuild perpetually?

Mark P

• Gore is controlled through 2027, and Abrams through 2028.  The logic is that since it doesn’t seem like the Nationals will be in contention within the next 2-3 years, the club is better served in the long run by trading one or both of these players now in order to restock the system.

Fans

• What percentage of fans rooting for Blue Jays? Not counting Dodger or Blue Jay fans.

Mark P

• My perception is that baseball fans in general are rooting for Toronto, whether due to the novelty or just because they’re tired of the Dodgers

Guest

• Are the Dodgers likely to seriously pursue Kyle Tucker or are they going to be wary of the potential financial consequences of what may come from the probable 2027 lockout?

Mark P

• The Dodgers will cross that bridge when they come to it, in terms of what a new CBA may or may not change about baseball’s business.

Scott in Mongolia

• Lots of teams are “prioritizing pitching”, but who honestly do you think might sign one of the top FA starters?

Mark P

• The Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mets all come to mind immediately.

Mariners

• What chance is Randy, Luis and JP all back this year?

Mark P

• While one can never rule out a bold Mariners trade, my guess is that all three are still in Seattle on Opening Day.  My perception is that the M’s feel they’re already really close, and want to reinforce their core group rather than trade someone away from it to address another need.

Okamoto

• So I am replacing Pete Alonzo on the Mets most likely then?

Mark P

• “Most likely” is a reach.  But, the Mets have a history of pursuing and landing top Japanese players, and as noted earlier, I think Alonso won’t be back in 2026

Sean D

• Do you believe the Twins will trade both Ryan and Lopez this offseason?

Mark P

• More inclined to say one is dealt, but not both.

Mets

• The Mets need a lot of pieces. Is next year realistic or too many holes to fill in one offseason?

Mark P

• As we’ve seen with the Blue Jays and countless other examples, teams can turn things around in pretty quick fashion as long as they have some real talent already in place.  The Mets certainly have their share of starpower, so a return to contention in 2026 is absolutely possible (or even plausible)
• lol, I meant to write the word “likely” there, not “plausible.”

A Coors on the Rox

• will Colorado hire a GM before free agency begins? Seems like their GM will be at another disadvantage by not being in place but I guess they’ll be rebuilding no matter what

Mark P

• The new GM/PBO will first be focused on hiring a new manager, but you’re right….I don’t think courting free agents is going to be high on Colorado’s list of offseason plans

RaymondReddington

• Verlander reuniting with the tigers, good idea?

Mark P

• Sure!

Dana Brown

• Could you see the Astros trading Christian Walker for a SP…then turning around & signing Pete Alonso for 1B? Heyman has linked Houston to Polar Pete.

Mark P

• The problem is, Walker is owed $40MM over the next two seasons and is coming off a rough year at both the plate and in the field. He’s not the easiest player in the world to trade.

  In this scenario where the Astros trade Walker and then sign Alonso, there’s a complication in that you’d need to find a 1B-needy team that is also not willing to go for Alonso, or Naylor, or Okamoto, or Murakami, etc.

That Baseball Fan

• Please tell us who you think will win tonight and why.

Mark P

• As a Blue Jays fan, I’m in a weird Schrodinger’s Cat scenario at the moment — today will either be the greatest or worst-ever day of my baseball fandom, with no in-between.  This month of playoff baseball has left me watching tonight’s games with frayed nerves….but I think the Jays will pull it off.
• And on that note, it’s time to wrap the chat.  Hope everyone enjoys Game 7, and there’s a lot to look forward to in a very busy upcoming week on MLBTR as the offseason gets underway.
• If you’re interested in more baseball Q&A, one of the many benefits of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription is the exclusive weekly live chats. The more limited field means you’re about 10 times more likely to get a question answered, as opposed to battling for space with hundreds of other questions in today’s chat. For more on our memberships, check out this link:

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-11-01-25