The Mariners finished the 2025 season with a payroll within the range of around $165.2MM (as per calculations from Cot’s Baseball Contracts) to $166.2MM (according to RosterResource). Either of these projections stand as the largest payroll figure in franchise history, topping the roughly $161.8MM that Cot’s estimated as Seattle’s season-ending budget for its 40-man roster.
It looks like the club will keep spending at at least this higher level in 2026, as president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told the Seattle Times’ Adam Jude and other reporters at the season wrap-up press conference on Thursday. When asked what the Mariners’ payroll for next season, Dipoto said “I would say similar to where we ended the year, as a starting point,” with the potential to boost spending during the season for trade deadline additions.
This is exactly what the M’s did at this past deadline, landing Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez in separate trades with the Diamondbacks and also bringing in left-hander Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates. These swaps added roughly $9.5MM to Seattle’s payroll but the money was clearly worth it. Naylor went nuclear during the remainder of the regular season and through the playoffs, Ferguson pitched well in the regular season, and Suarez was a little more inconsistent but had some big postseason moments (like his two homers in Game 5 of the ALCS).
The deadline spending was a notable step forward for a team that has largely kept its spending in check for the last two offseasons, owing largely to uncertainty over TV broadcasting rights. Dipoto has long maintained that ownership would increase payroll as the team got deeper into regular contention, and while this wasn’t exactly the case following the Mariners’ playoff appearance in 2022, upper management did indeed step forward to approve a larger budget this summer.
“This was always the goal, to methodically build toward what we were doing,” Dipoto said. “And I’m comfortable that the resources that we’re given, we’re going to have every ability to go out and put together a championship-quality team. And like we have in recent years, when we get into the right position, I’m certain that we will be aggressive in doing the next thing.”
In terms of money on the Mariners’ books for 2026, RosterResource projects the team at slightly under $132MM in payroll, and Cot’s with a slightly higher total of roughly $132.4MM. This would seemingly leave about $34MM in payroll capacity for Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander to work with this winter, and of course some more money could be freed up by non-tenders or trades.
Dipoto has stated multiple times that the M’s would love to re-sign Naylor in free agency, so assuming that happens, Naylor alone will take up a significant portion of available payroll space. With Naylor as the stated top priority, the perception is that Suarez likely won’t be retained, while Jorge Polanco (who is expected to reject his player option and re-enter free agency) is a bit more of a 50-50 proposition. Chances are that Seattle will focus its energies on Naylor first and then turn to Polanco, or potentially to other first base options should Naylor sign elsewhere.
As always, expect plenty of trade speculation about the possibility of the Mariners trading from their rotation depth. The cost of keeping the starting five together is on the rise, as Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are due significant arbitration raises and Bryce Miller is now arb-eligible for the first time. Dipoto wasn’t as adamant about not trading starting pitching as he was last winter, but it is fair to assume that it would take a huge offer to get the M’s to even consider moving any of their top five starters.
If Polanco and Suarez leave, Naylor is retained, and virtually everyone else is brought back (10 arb. eligible players is a lot), the M’s will probably be at 152-5 or thereabouts. It doesn’t leave room for a major signing, beyond a reliever.
2b,3b, rf would be filled internally (3B: Williamson or Emerson, 2b: Young, Bliss, or Emerson, RF: some combo of Canzone, Robles, Raley) DH would be Ford, Cal, Canzone/Raley, or leg rest days for Randy and Julio.
It leaves the team just a touch short, unless the youngster emerge in dramatic fashion.
Do you really think they’re going to rely on mostly internal options to get better? I certainly don’t.
Ford would be wasted as a DH and he doesn’t have the power for that role, anyway.
Surely they’ll get creative.
Naylor would be the major signing it’s like you are somehow discounting the fact that he’s a free agent. The mariners traded away talent to essentially rent his services for the second half of the season. That was the compensation for his 6 months with the team. In order to bring him back to the team he needs to be paid as a free agent, that is the major signing.
Naylor would be a retained player. He wouldn’t be an addition.
There’s no way around leaning on some of the young infielders, and we got a good hint in the ALCS who’s likely the favorite for second base, but they can’t seriously expect to retain Naylor, sign a reliever, and hope internal options can address the rest of the needs to get them to the next level.
And I don’t think they will.
You retain a player when you extend his contract. Once they are a free agent, you acquire them. Naylor is a free agent, he isn’t a part of the team anymore. The moment the season ended, if the team didn’t extend him to retain his services, he is removed from the roster and is a free agent, period. What you are saying about “retaining him” is not correct from a transactional position.
Was he on the team in the 25 season? Has he played for another team yet?
You’re missing the point. He wouldn’t be an addition.
Have a nice night.
Dude, the point you are trying to make doesn’t matter. It doesn’t make sense transactionally, doesn’t make sense in how contracts are negotiated and worded and it doesn’t make sense considering the rules of the game. End of discussion. You can certainly have the opinion, but it isn’t how the rules are written or how businesses is done.
Retained players are ones that the team doesn’t let reach free agency. You cannot retain a player who is no longer yours to retain.
I would say that we are just arguing semantics but the rules of the game don’t define the term in the way you describe it. If he winds up on Seattle next season, the transaction record will state Josh Naylor acquired by Seattle. It will not say Naylor retained by Seattle. Had he signed before the season was over, it would likely reflect something about Naylor being retained by Seattle on an X year y dollar extension.
It’s a fundamental misinterpretation of the type of agreement between player and club. He would be agreeing to be acquired by Seattle as a free agent or he would be agreeing to be retained by Seattle on an extension.
Polanco just seems to fit there. Be nice for both sides if they could stick together.
He was overshadowed by Raleigh, but Polanco was huge for Seattle. Great story. He should be the comeback player of the year.
The comeback player of the year usually, but not always, goes to a guy who was hurt the prior year and missed most/all of that season. Polanco was playing hurt last year, but did actually play most of the year, leading to a down year.
George Springer had a similar season last year. He didn’t have a single bigger injury like Jorge, but a series of smaller nagging things and had a really bad year. His rebound year dwarfs Polanco’s.
Both players will likely be up for the award. As you say, though, Polanco was overshadowed on his own team while Springer was the single biggest reason his team even made the playoffs.
Depends what the voters choose to value most. Either guy would be deserving.
Using the lower Cots payroll number of $165.2MM and starting there, then figuring in the added income from six 2025 sold out home playoff games should add significantly to next year’s payroll.
Roughly figuring 45,000 paid attendance each game at an average of $100 per fan (parking, concessions, soveniors and tickets) for six games comes to $27MM. If you figure a 30-30-40 split, i.e., expenses, owner profit, allocation to 2026 payroll, that would add $10.8MM to the established estimate of $165.2 raising it to a total of $176MM.
That can buy a World Series caliber team.
Bb, I agree that it will take $18-$20 million a year to sign Naylor to a 3-4 year deal. If they have $16-$18 million left to spend (which some years recently that was all they had to spend or even less) that better be some shut down/high leverage reliever and they do need one more. They cannot get Polanco for Two years $24 million? If not, they will need another quality bat. My dream is to trade for Steven Kwan and i believe that the Mariners have the farm system an the arms (Logan Evans) to pull off a trade for a quality bat. I believe they need another player like Kwan or a Brendan Donovan type that puts the ball in play….What would Luis Arraez cost? 181 hits last year. Though he does not walk much….
He been about league average for the past 3-4 years. No thanks, not for what he’d cost for whatever reason.
@Bookbook, Williamson, sure. Young, probably. Beyond that, they need b-a-t-s. Not necessarily home run hitters, but guys other pitchers want to pitch around. If you’re giving up outs with Williamson, Young, and Crawford. Then you’d better have a RF and DH that make guys nervous. Polo would help solve DH, but there aren’t good internal options. Go get Steven Kwan to bat leadoff and piss off starting pitchers with 11-pitch at bats that end with a hit. But until 2027 when Montes is ready, the answer is not Canzone, Robles, Raley, Rhylan Thomas, or Samad Taylor. And either let Ford back up Cal or trade him to a catcher-needy team like the Padres (say, Laureano and a reliever?) or the Guardians (Kwan and Josh’s brother?).
I hope it didn’t sound like I was attacking Bookbook. He’s right about the remaining room after arbitration raises (and a potential Naylor contract).
I just don’t expect them to being back a number of players, such as Santos and Raley.
I would guess that they’re hopeful Williamson can handle third relatively quickly, but they’ll need another option, regardless.
It’s easy to look at the prospects and younger players and think that they’ll have answers nearly everywhere. But they can’t rely on too much inexperience.
And the bullpen is every bit as much of a concern.
There’s another issue that nobody has talked about, but I’m waiting to see if anyone figures it out.
I don’t feel attacked, but thanks for making it clear.
If it were my money, I’d go get Kyle Tucker because he is the perfect fit for what this team needs, especially with his OBP. Alas, it is not my dime.
Dumping Santos and Raley only saves about $1 million over league minimum by arbitration estimates, so doesn’t create much payroll space.
I meant to say that Ford would be backup catcher, as well as a substantial portion of the DH mix. He had a very good year in Tacoma, so deserves a shot somewhere..
I agree that bringing back Polanco would be good, but the combination of cost, and his need to play DH 3/4 of the time makes that difficult if they want Cal and Ford to DH a bunch.. (And Canzone is easier to take if we don’t have to watch him “field” every time.) I don’t think Polanco will have to settle for 2/$24, even with his recent history. I think 3/$50 may be in the offing, which is not easy for our miserly owners to afford.
A creative trade for Kwan, or someone of that ilk, would be great. Most of what I’ve heard for available infielders (Bohm, Hoerner, etc.) is so unexciting I might prefer rolling the dice with the rookies., at least until the trade deadline.
This should be a fun offseason for us
I’m just happy it sounds like we are staying at our current payroll
If we keep naylor for 2026 that would be huge and we would still be Al west divison frontrunners
As a Mariners’ fan, I’d see a flat payroll for 2026 as less than comforting. In order to sign Naylor they’ll have to make a multi-year offer and 2027 will require a lot more arb increases for their key 4 young starters. Three more years of Castillo at $24-25m is too much and keeping Arozarena beyond 2026 looks impossible.
To keep all of the starters until FA means surrounding Julio and Raleigh with 7 position players that are likely to be league average or worse as a whole. I’d either trade a starter for a semiproven but affordable position player (maybe a Jordan Westburg or even a Jeremy Pena) or hope that DiPoto has wiggle room to go up 10% annually.
I was agreeing with this comment until I heard Jeremy Peña
Seems like Seattle and Atlanta should be able to match somewhere with a pitching for hitting swap. Unfortunately Atlanta probably isn’t moving any of their controlled hitters
I don’t think Atlanta will make any major trades either.
However, I would like to see if Acuna is really interested in staying in Atlanta for his career and what that contract looks like. If it is unattainable for Atlanta I really like Seattle’s farm system and would love to see that possible trade.
Acuna for Emerson, Montes, and either Anderson or Miller. I prefer Anderson over Miller but it depends on what Atlanta wants and Seattle is willing to give up.
Arozarena, Rodriguez, Acuna would be a lethal outfield for Seattle. Then the “Big Dumper” and resign Naylor. Solid chance to make another playoff run. By trading Anderson they still keep their rotation intact.
Atlanta gets their SS of the future and a replacement in Montes, and then Anderson to step into the rotation in a couple years.
That would be reasonable return for acuna but the braves probably want him to stay in Atlanta for life
Luis Castillo and the braves would be an ok fit to get salary off Seattle
I’m looking forward to the Mariners being the 2026 World Series Champions!
Whatever happens I hope the Mariners can make it to the World Series next year!
Naylor signs in San Diego, mariners pivot and trade Kirby to orioles for wells and mayo…