Latest On MacKenzie Gore Trade Talks

Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore is one of the biggest names to watch as the Winter Meetings approach. The All-Star southpaw is Washington’s biggest trade chip, and they’re unsurprisingly getting plenty of calls.

Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic write that the Nationals have heard from upwards of 15 teams with interest. Buster Olney of ESPN relays that executives from multiple front offices expect a Gore trade to come together within the coming days. ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel wrote earlier this week that the Nats had a high asking price — as one would expect for a mid-rotation starter who comes with two affordable seasons of club control.

Gore, who turns 27 in February, took the ball 30 times this year and posted a 4.17 earned run average. That’s not all that impressive in aggregate, but he flashed the talent that once made him a third overall pick. Gore’s first half was excellent: 110 1/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball with a 30.4% strikeout rate. Things unraveled down the stretch. He was tagged for a 6.75 ERA in 11 starts after the All-Star Break. His strikeout percentage plummeted by 10 points as the whiff rates on his curveball and slider dropped. Gore struggled to throw strikes and twice landed on the injured list. He missed the first couple weeks of September with shoulder inflammation, then was scratched from his final start because of an ankle impingement.

The ankle is unlikely to be a concern moving forward. The shoulder could raise a little more alarm, but his velocity wasn’t much affected when he returned. His fastball averaged 94.8 MPH in September, only marginally below its 95.3 MPH mark for the season. Gore’s scattershot command and start-to-start inconsistency are the bigger questions. There’s nevertheless going to be ample interest in a lefty with plus stuff who pitched like a #2 starter for the first three months of the season.

Gore ranked as MLBTR’s top trade candidate entering the offseason. That reflected both his value and the likelihood that he’d be on the move. The Nationals don’t appear close to coming out of their rebuild. They fired GM Mike Rizzo midseason and are starting fresh with president of baseball operations Paul Toboni. Gore is two seasons away from free agency. The Nats almost certainly won’t be competitive next season and face an uphill battle to making the playoffs in 2027, making it difficult to envision Gore remaining in D.C. beyond next year’s deadline at the latest.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Gore for a $4.7MM salary in his penultimate arbitration year. That’s unlikely to climb beyond $8-10MM in 2027. An acquiring team would be getting two years of a mid-rotation arm for a total around $12-15MM. That’s a bargain even if Gore never reaches another level, but there are surely clubs that believe they can coax a better full season than he has shown so far.

The Padres reportedly made the strongest push to bring Gore back at last summer’s deadline. They still need controllable starting pitching, though a deal could be difficult to manage after they moved top prospect Leo De Vries to the A’s for Mason Miller instead. The Cubs were also linked to Gore at the deadline and remain on the hunt for a high-end starter.

The Giants, Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox and Rangers could all pursue a top arm in trade. The rotation isn’t necessarily a need for the Mariners, but they’re in win-now mode and have the kind of farm system that could allow them to jump in on any available trade candidate. The Orioles and Mets are also chasing rotation upside, but a huge trade with the Nationals could be complicated. The O’s and Nats have long had a contentious relationship related to their decade-plus long dispute over TV rights, while the Mets face the challenge of pulling off a trade within the division.