As the Winter Meetings start to pick up, this week's subscriber mailbag gets into MacKenzie Gore trade proposals, more trade ideas involving this year's Cy Young winners, the trade value of Nick Pivetta and Anthony Santander, and much more.
Steve asks:
Assuming that MacKenzie Gore has not been traded as I write this, would either of these two deals be likely to work for the teams involved?
1. Gore and Luis Garcia, Jr. to the Giants for Bryce Eldridge and Carson Whisenhunt? or
2. Gore to the Red Sox for Triston Casas and Connelly Early?
Your thoughts?
Gustav asks:
Who’d say no in a Gore & Abrams for Sheehan, Freeland, Ferris & Hope?
Gore, 27 in February, has two more years of team control remaining. He's had a couple of 3-WAR type seasons in 2024 and '25, but they came with extreme volatility.
The lefty made 32 starts in 2024. He had a 14-start stretch in the middle where he posted a 6.18 ERA, 19.8 K%, and 11.4 BB%. That 8.3 K-BB% was the fourth-worst in baseball among qualified starters during that June 3rd-August 17th period. Before and after that, Gore pitched like an ace. His velocity was up early in the season, spiking to 96.6 miles per hour from the beginning of the year through July 1st. It was a full mile per hour slower from that point on.
Similarly, Gore entered a July 20th start against the Padres this year with a 3.02 ERA, 30.5 K%, and 7.7 BB%. His was back in ace form, and earned his first All-Star nod. From that point forward, though, Gore posted a 6.75 ERA, 20.7 K%, and 12.8 BB% over his final 11 starts. This stretch was a bit more concentrated into three or four blow-ups. Gore's velocity was back down to 95.3 this year, but was relatively consistent game-to-game.
A run through Gore's injury history:
- 2018: IL time with blisters and fingernail issues
- August 2019: rested for 26 days to manage workload
- 2020: no minor league season; pitched at Padres' alternate site
- 2021: Started year at Triple-A; moved to Padres' alternate site in June after struggling with blisters; remained there to work on his delivery. Finished the year with two Double-A starts.
- 2022: Made MLB debut in April when Blake Snell got injured. July 26th: landed on IL with elbow soreness. August 2nd: traded to Nationals. Made four minor league rehab starts for the Nats.
- 2023: Exited July start with a blister; made the following one. Removed from August 16th start due to a blister; returned a week later. September 9th: season ended due to blisters.
- 2024: Avoided IL and known blister issues.
- 2025: Exited May start due to leg tightness; made his next one. August 30th: went on IL for shoulder inflammation; ended up going 16 days between starts.
The blister issues didn't seem to pop up after 2023. Gore has never undergone Tommy John surgery. His 2022 elbow soreness and his 2025 shoulder inflammation seemed minor.
So Gore's injury history is not bad, but he's been a pitcher of extremes the last two years. It's difficult to value that, but I'm sure just about every organization would like to bring him in and try to smooth things out.
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Am I the only one who thinks the Phillies had a golden opportunity to not run it back? Unless some trades happen they’ll have the same lineup as last two seasons.
Pretty darn good lineup, no?
They won 96 games and lost 3 coin flip games to the Dodgers. Running it back isn’t the worst thing in the world. Plus, they just signed Schwarber, arguably the best bat on the market. They can still make creative changes/signings.
Other than a rh hitting outfielder to replace Nick C, the line up should be set.
bbhistory,
Replacing Nick C should be pretty easy, and an upgrade is likely. Eating $20M is the toughest part.
They didn’t just ‘run it back’—they bought a ticket to the same exact roller coaster. Spending that kind of money on a DH/clubhouse guy when you could have leveraged it for a defensive and low-whiff upgrade is organizational malpractice.
Dieno, who would this “defensive and low-whiff upgrade” be the Phillies could have gotten for similar money?
The money for Schwarber ($30M AAV) could have solved three major leaks instead of padding their one strength.
The perfect defensive and low-whiff solution was to acquire a package of players, still available are:
Cody Bellinger (4.9 WAR, CF): The headliner. A true Center Fielder who fixes their worst defensive hole and provides a low-whiff, high-OBP bat.
PLUS Luis Arraez (2.0 WAR, 1B/2B): The ultimate contact hitter. Signing him would have fundamentally changed the lineup’s DNA, guaranteeing situational hitting they desperately lack in October.
PLUS Harrison Bader (4.4 WAR, CF/OF): A cheaper, elite defensive option in the outfield (CF/LF)
Bellinger will get $22M-$25M per year over 4-6 years.
Arraez will get $10M-$12M per year over about two years.
Bader will get $8M-$10M per year over probably two years.
That $40M-$47M per year, or 33%-57% more than Schwarber, and you have to go shopping again in two years to replace two of those three hitters.
Nacho Alvarez could be a fit in a Pivetta trade. Maybe combined with Didier Fuentes who has an unusual combination of interesting pitch metrics but is already burning through options. Neither player seems irreplaceable for the Braves, but would give the Padres some ways to save money.
It’s not the sexiest idea, but it is the direction I’d go as Preller if I’m talking to AA.
“Major League Baseball teams are not allowed to trade draft picks due to a rule established in 1965.”
This rule was established before free agency and needs to be reversed. Rebuilding teams could improve much more quickly if they would be allowed to trade their draft picks for established major league talent.
As someone who’s run a lot of fantasy leagues, draft pick trading is where the sharks in the room truly fleece the sheep.
And you might be thinking “Well, that’s fantasy. The professionals are better.”
They aren’t.
If widespread pick trading was allowed, the consequences would be…incredibly obnoxious. More value flowing to the Dodgers. Teams like the Angelos-era Orioles and the Angels handing their picks away because they don’t want to spend real money on prospects. The Rockies doing Rockies things and the Pirates doing Pirates things. Your least-favorite rival festooned with gifts.
Trading draft picks has worked so well in the NFL, NHL and NBA that nobody has ever suggested abandoning the system to follow the archaic MLB model.
Talent in those leagues is cheap and game-ready. In baseball you draft top guys, pay them their slotted bonus, spend to develop, and then wait and see for three years. The money is all up front.
Every team would draft Skenes because he’s so clearly worth more than his slot bonus. But how far down the list do you have to go before teams like Pittsburgh are trading away their future to save a few bucks on draft day?
Those sports aren’t baseball. There is less range in the outcome of given draft picks. And, I’d argue the schmucks in those leagues remain schmuckish in large part due to their inability to value draft picks.
Take Charlie Condon. The Rox took him third overall, at the time believing they got an incredible talent. Currently, he’s not ranked among the Top 100 prospects. Harry Ford was…and he was traded (with another decent prospect) for an interesting-but-unexceptional LHRP, implying that Condon is worth less than that.
“Talent in those leagues is cheap and game-ready.”
Only the NFL because they use college football as their minor league system (different problem for another day). Conveniently, you use Skenes as the example, when in reality, he would be the exception to the rule. The vast majority of MLB first round picks do not become all-stars.
Rebuilding teams would actually be spending more money because they would be trading draft picks for MLB ready/proven talent, who would be looking for long term extensions.
You don’t think they’d be trading for high-minors lotto tickets who aren’t yet Rule 5 eligible? I do.
So what? The White Sox just learned that they will be picking first in the draft. They have Colson Montgomery playing SS now with Billy Carlson probably coming up in two years.
The best player is projected to be Roch Cholowsky… guess what position he plays? 5 of the top 7 prospects appear to be short stops as well. If the Sox could package their first pick with other talent and make a trade with Pittsburgh for Konnor Griffin, it would help the Sox rebuild much more quickly.
You should give it a little thought before providing a knee-jerk reaction.
NoNeck,
The best amateurs often play SS or CF, but many of them move to less demanding defensive spots because they’re not good enough to play those positions at the top professional levels.
Good point, but I think everyone knows that.
Your model sounds way off. It won’t be large ripping off small, it will be smart outmaneuvering dumb.
Analysis seems to say that trading down is the smart play in the NFL. Small markets may well fleece the big ones by doing so. Give them more chances to compete. The FA talent all goes to big markets, the international track record is that all the best players do also. Let the little guys make the most of their picks instead of boxing them in.
“Your model sounds way off. It won’t be large ripping off small, it will be smart outmaneuvering dumb.”
1. You are just assuming, you don’t know this.
2. In the real world, the smart always beat the dumb.
3. We have many decades of sample size in the NFL, NHL and NBA… and NOBODY has ever suggested that having the freedom to trade draft picks is a problem.
Hypothetical: The Sox need an OF and the Pirates need several position players. If the Sox could trade their 1st round pick and Edgar Quero for Konnor Griffin, how do the White Sox lose that trade?
Roch is already considered better than or comparable to Griffin. So that’s one answer to your question. Such frameworks would also be uncommon. Finances would motivate most draft pick trades, as they already do with the picks that can be traded.
Um, I agree that it won’t be a problem. It will be a major + for small markets, who already lose big on FAs and international (stars all are on big market teams!).
‘model way off’ was answering the guy who said the Dodgers will fleece the Pirates when they give away their picks for low value.
“Roch is already considered better than or comparable to Griffin.”
Show your work.
Sorry about that.
I’m tempted to lmgtfy, but here ya go:
x.com/JoeDoyleMiLB/status/1967040560637898773
x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1996754352019509631
x.com/jnorris427/status/1940971212248957185
x.com/jnorris427/status/1998617825418817700
x.com/BaseballAmerica/status/1988806534055313422
x.com/RossJensen12/status/1963949779635040371
Wow, that’s really embarrassing. All of your links claim that Cholowsky is a really good prospect… yet none of them said that he was better than Griffin.
Here’s a professional saying that Griffin is like Batman and Cholowsky is like Robin.
facebook.com/watch/?v=855965296976533
Pretty easy to imagine a deal involving Santander.
Toronto gives Santander and the money remaining on his contract.
Toronto gets nothing.
Other than that, they’re stuck with him.
Nah, he has neg value now but not that much.
Pay down half and get an okay, #25 in system, high A pitcher.