This week's mailbag gets into the Mets' offseason thus far, Craig Breslow's tenure atop Boston's front office, the Munetaka Murakami situation, how an expansion draft works, the Cubs' anti-deferral policy, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s trade value, and much more.
Ed asks:
I'm finding it hard to understand the Mets thinking. I'm scratching my head about the Marcus Semien/ Brandon Nimmo trade. I asked my friend who's a big Mets fan (his last name is Metz) what he thought and he responded that it depends on what outfielder they replace Nimmo with. I told him that unless they break the bank on Kyle Tucker its not going to be a clear upgrade. I'd say Cody Bellinger is an slight upgrade but after looking at their numbers its amazing how similar Bellinger and Nimmo are offensively and I don't see Cody putting up as good numbers in Citi Field.
Then I heard they are shopping Senga, instead of signing Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez to compliment Senga they are looking to move on all together. Again I think both Framber and Ranger are probably a little better than Senga but if you sign one of them and keep Senga he becomes your # 2 which he is much better suited for.
I believe last year was more of a fluke for Devin Williams than the new norm, but would rather have Diaz, especially since William's problem might have been that he just can't handle the New York limelight. The Mets are now going with Williams as closer unless they resign Diaz and yes it probably closes the door on Diaz unless they want to invest over $100 million on two back end of the bullpen guys.
Just curious what you think of these moves. Do you feel the Mets will be stronger in the OF, Starting and Relief pitching in 2026?
Abner asks:
As a NY Mets fan I would love to see a late innings duo of Edwin Díaz & Devin Williams. But knowing how does David Stearns operate, how realistic is the Mets signing Díaz with Williams already in the fold? Will they look for cheaper options getting a guy like Tyler Rogers and/or Emilio Pagán to be the setup man while Williams is the closer? If they decide to invest heavily in Williams and Díaz, does that mean that they will not invest in an ace for the starting rotation this offseason? Thanks in advance.
On the Nimmo/Semien trade, I agree with Ed's friend. So far, we've seen a portion of the Mets' offseason puzzle. It's not close to being complete.
At age 33, Nimmo projects as roughly a 2.5 WAR player next year. It's true that the free agent market is light on outfielders who are capable of that, beyond Tucker and Bellinger. But it's also true that 34 MLB outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR this year, including several few saw coming. And that doesn't account for platoons that combined for 2.5 WAR-type value.
There's also collapse risk with the 33-year-old Nimmo, who is under contract through 2030. Let's take a quick look at the last five years and see how many 33-year-old outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR:
- 2025: 2 (Aaron Judge at 33, George Springer at 35)
- 2024: 0
- 2023: 1 (Kevin Kiermaier at 33)
- 2022: 2 (Starling Marte and Mark Canha at 33 - both Mets!)
- 2021: 2 (AJ Pollock at 33, Darin Ruf at 34)
Nimmo's track record is very good, and a projection system is not going to project him to fall off a cliff after a 3-WAR season. But outfield is a young man's game, and you can see how rare good seasons are at 33+. With Nimmo, this could be a case of the old adage about trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late. So I don't mind subtracting a player who probably won't age well, saving some money long-term and bringing in a second baseman with strong defense. That's not to say Semien doesn't have his own collapse risk at 35, but his speed and defense are holding strong.
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Tim, I disagree with your analysis of the Red Sox/Breslow trade involving Devers. Yes, the players coming over, save Harrison, are light, but you have to include the salary dump and what Breslow chooses to spend it on. You also underestimate how important it was to remake the clubhouse, and get Devers’ pouting stench out of there, and allow the young players to develop under Bregman’s increased influence and a healthier vibe. Bottom line, Devers showed up to 2024 out of shape and did not rehab his shoulder. He didn’t take an ounce of responsibility for his failure to fulfill his professional obligations. He is NOT the guy you want leading a wave of talented young players. Cora tried to meet with Devers in the offseason to discuss the possibility of moving positions and signing Bregman …Devers blew him off and then showed up fat and out of shape, and not ready to play in the field, yet felt entitled to play 3b base. Your analysis is light on these factors, and blaming Breslow for Rafi’s lack of maturity is kinda dubious. The Red Sox failed to develop the professionalism and commitment of Devers well before Breslow showed up.
I love the inclusion of Darin Ruf in the outfielder with 2.5+ WAR discussion. No doubt aided by his elite baserunning skills.
“RUF IS ON THE MOVE”