The Cubs and star center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong are finalizing an extension, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Once the deal is complete, the Cubs will have one of the sport’s best defensive players signed for the long haul. Crow-Armstrong is a CAA client.
Chicago tried to get a deal done with Crow-Armstrong during last year’s Spring Training. He was coming off a modest .237/.286/.384 season as a rookie, but the Cubs clearly felt he had another gear offensively. There has never been any doubt regarding his elite center field defense.
The sides couldn’t reach an agreement last spring. Crow-Armstrong’s asking price has certainly jumped 12 months later. He took a huge step forward from a power perspective, connecting on 31 home runs with 72 extra-base hits. He stole 35 bases, making him one of seven players to go 30-30 last year. He also led all outfielders with 24 Outs Above Average, while tying for second among center fielders (behind Ceddanne Rafaela) with 15 Defensive Runs Saved.
For a good portion of the season, Crow-Armstrong looked to be on track for a top three MVP finish. He was on an offensive tear for four months, hitting 27 homers with a .272/.309/.559 slash line through the end of July. His bat went ice cold to close the season, as he stumbled to a .188/.237/.295 mark over his final 200 trips to the plate.
The tough finish “dropped” Crow-Armstrong to ninth in NL MVP balloting. He deservedly earned his first All-Star selection and Gold Glove. He finished the season as a slightly above-average hitter, posting a .247/.287/.481 line across 647 plate appearances. Crow-Armstrong had a tough postseason (batting .185 without an extra-base hit in eight games) but was much better this spring while playing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.
Crow-Armstrong’s late-season slump highlights the remaining concerns about his offensive consistency. He’s one of the most aggressive hitters in the league, swinging at nearly 60% of the pitches he has seen in his career. No other player who took 500 plate appearances last year swung more often.
Only Yainer Diaz and Michael Harris II more frequently chased pitches outside the strike zone. As a result, Crow-Armstrong has walked in fewer than 5% of his career plate appearances. He has gone down on strikes at a slightly elevated 24% rate. The approach leaves him with a low floor from an OBP perspective that’ll probably continue leading to a streaky offensive game.
At the same time, Crow-Armstrong clearly has a ceiling that few players in the league can match. The glove isn’t going to slump. He’s an elite runner and athlete with a fantastic arm and an excellent first step. The defense alone would give him a high floor even if he had minimal offensive upside. Crow-Armstrong can carry a lineup when he’s going well, as he showed for the first two-thirds of last season. He has above-average bat speed and plus power, particularly against right-handed pitching.
The lefty hitter posted a .271/.315/.523 mark with 24 homers when holding the platoon advantage. He struggled against southpaws, batting .188/.217/.376 with seven longballs in 188 plate appearances. The defense is so good that the Cubs won’t use him as a platoon player, but they’re surely hoping to see more competitive at-bats against lefties.
It’s possible that’ll come with experience. Crow-Armstrong is entering his age-24 season. It’s unlikely he’s ever going to become a patient hitter, but it’s fair to project him some improvements to his selectivity as he gets into his mid 20s. If he plateaus at 10-15 percent better than average offensively, he’d remain one of the better all-around players in the National League. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued him around 5-6 wins above replacement a year ago. Crow-Armstrong’s all-out playing style has also made him a favorite of the fanbase and arguably the face of the franchise.
Crow-Armstrong is two days shy of having two full years of service time. He would have qualified for early arbitration as a Super Two player next offseason. He was five years away from reaching free agency, when he would have hit the market at age 29.
Jackson Merrill’s nine-year, $135MM extension with the Padres last spring is the top guarantee for a player with between one and two years of MLB service. Merrill and Crow-Armstrong have similar profiles as star center fielders with power but some on-base concerns. Crow-Armstrong is the superior defender, though Merrill is a very good outfielder in his own right. The latter probably has a slightly higher offensive floor because he makes more contact.
Merrill was a year younger than Crow-Armstrong is now. He was not on track to qualify as a Super Two player, but he was trending towards hitting free agency by age 27. Merrill probably left some money on the table, though his deal is the most obvious comparison point for talks between the Cubs and Crow-Armstrong’s camp. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Cubs’ 2025 offer was for $66MM. If he matches or exceeds the Merrill contract, he’d more than double that sum.
The Cubs have two nine-figure contracts on the books with the Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman deals. RosterResource projects them right around the $244MM base luxury tax threshold. Assuming the extension goes into effect this season, their CBT number would jump significantly even if it’s a backloaded contract. The deal’s average annual value is the relevant number for tax purposes, and that’ll obviously be much higher than the pre-arbitration salary which Crow-Armstrong had been set to make. The Cubs would pay a 20% tax on overages between $244MM and $264MM, then a 32% charge between $264MM and $284MM.
Chicago’s long-term outfield is wide open. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are on track to hit free agency next offseason. Nico Hoerner, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are also slated to hit the market, and the Cubs surely aren’t bringing everybody back. They traded Owen Caissie to the Marlins as a centerpiece of the Edward Cabrera return. Prospect Kevin Alcántara has power but concerning strikeout rates. Crow-Armstrong would have been in center field either way, but there could be a fair amount of turnover around him in the Wrigley outfield a year from now.
Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images.
Interesting. I wonder if they’re paying him based on his unrepeatable first half or his true to form second half?
his defensive talent and consistency makes up for his offensive inconsistencies, he could hit .230 with 20 bombs and still be the cubs most valuable player
No disagreement there.
That’s not even remotely close to accurate. Finding athletes that can catch is not that difficult. The hard part is hitting.
This. There are elite defensive CFers around who can’t even get starting gigs.
Well if it’s on the first half we should suspect a contract in the $65M a year range. I’m guessing it’s going to be short of that.
Much shorter
Shot in the dark would be 16-17 a year low end—high end low 20s. 7/150.. 8/170 (incentives and escalators written in)
I’d have to think it’s higher than your high end guess
Tough take on the kid. But also fair to wonder which is who you’re gonna get for 7-8 years
The kid’s gonna be good, but he seems a bit cocky at times and he needs to lose the 90’s-esque hoop earring in only his left ear.
That second half was an atrocity for both PCA and Tucker. I think Bregman can help him learn how to be a pro as opposed to the nonchalance that Tucker exuded.
That hoop earring is the reason he fell apart. No one in the history of Chicago sports has ever been great and won wearing something so ridiculous
😆
Literally the dumbest comment on this already ridiculous comment section.
Michael Jordan wore hoop earrings. I think I saw them on 80’s quarterback Jim McMahon too. Are you going to tell Jim he can’t wear them ?
Obviously hyped but just curious about the $$$. Going to be more than they offered last year but how much more? Nevertheless stoked to see PCA locked up
Smart
Maybe, maybe not. Defense obviously elite, but the offense is a huge question mark.
At 24 was Pete Rose’s or Rickey Henderson’s game honed to perfection? I’m not saying PCA is gonna end up in the same ZIP code as them, but I’ve seen enough to know he’s capable. He’s not a one trick pony
The obsession with underlying metrics clouds perspective: the kid is 23, one of the best defensive players in baseball, and hit 30/30! Jiminy Christmas not everybody who gets locked up is going to be Miguel Cabrera. I have this same conversation about Julio all the time.
So FA in 2031. So at least 5 year deal. Would a 8/100 work?
I think it’s gonna cost more than that – add another 50MM?
Way more than that
I’d guess a little less. 6 yrs/$90m.
Pretty sure that’s less than what they offered him last year…it’s going to be higher than that
Im going with 220-240MM
I agree. Was thinking 250.
I’m not a big PCA fan. Dude was great, and then straight up awful. Looks like a streaky hitter that keeps the glove intact at all times. I hope this won’t be an overpay for the Cubs fans sake
He’s a kid. His defense is outstanding, has great speed and the talent is certainly there. Playing the way he did and then getting the attention is going to play mind games. Hopefully someone will mentor his approach and try not to get overwhelmed (or cocky) and play it day by day. He’s certainly got the ability to be great.
Great news
Elite power & speed, 1 of the best gloves in mlb. Only 23 y old . Slam sunk no brainer to extend him
It’s great as a Mets fan to see how the kids shine elsewhere. For Baez. F’ing Baez.
Silver lining is the Mets aren’t paying $140 million for like 5 war
The Dodgers traded Yordan Alvarez to Houston for Josh Fields
Mets can get him back later if he follows the Baez performance arc. Pretty similar players in a lot of ways.
good investment because his floor is so high. He can never finish below 3 WAR.
but the ceiling remains mysterious
But he has great hair
Michael Harris just finished below 2 WAR
Luckily he isn’t Michael Harris
Similar profile, and not so long ago people wouldnt have believed Harris could put up a line like he just did
Guys with terrible plate discipline are volatile. Id bet hell be a star, but we dont have to look too far to see how that type of player can put up a sub 3 WAR season.
Harris is crazy talented athlete. It’s a good comp.
Inferior defender, less power and speed version, sure. Harris definitely didn’t have the upside PCA has at 23 years old. Wouldn’t say it’s the best comp
PCA could be like a Daulton Varsho / Kevin Kiermeier type player at least ???
I think he’ll be great, and the speed/defense should give him a solid floor, but to me its crazy to say anyone “cant put up a sub 3 WAR season”
They said the same thing about Heyward…
And Heyward even had good plate discipline to boot. There really is no sure thing in baseball.
Now extend Nico and then Seiya
His D is worth a decent sized extension but I think his bat is closer to the end of 2025 than the beginning. Just everything he squared up was leaving the yard for a while there.
17 years/$527M to $646M or something like that, I’d imagine.
Even if it’s half of that. He’s gonna get paid two days before he turns 24.
As a Brewer fan I hope you are right
I’m late to notice his huge offensive jump from 2024 to 2025. I thought he was a glove first, light hitter before looking closer at his stats from 2025.
He’s going to be the next Julio Rodriguez or Jose Siri no in-betweens.
Diaz, Harris, PCA more homeruns than walks (Diaz had 20/20). Makes sense they were the top three of expanding the strike zone. All three have many at bats that are painful to watch.
If he has a career like JBJ had with the Red Sox, any extension now will be a bargain. But holy cow, he needs to learn to take a pitch occasionally.
I would find a new team if he were the face of franchise I followed lol
You must be really fun
Stay classy, Philly