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Pete Crow-Armstrong

Gold Glove Winners Announced

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Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by managers, coaches, and statistical analysis.  Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team.  The utility Gold Glove was determined in a separate fashion, via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.

National League winners

American League winners

Extension Candidate: Pete Crow-Armstrong

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Few players captured more attention throughout the 2025 season than Pete Crow-Armstrong. The young center fielder seemed to launch himself into superstardom in the first half this year, with 20 doubles, 21 homers, and 25 steals through the end of June. That worked out to a .263/.299/.537 slash line, good for a 128 wRC+ with elite defense in center field that made him an early rival for Shohei Ohtani in this year’s MVP race. He followed up that brilliant performance with a far less exciting second half, as he slashed just .228/.274/.412 (86 wRC+) with 17 doubles, ten home runs, and ten steals from July 1 onward.

Crow-Armstrong’s second-half slump was enough to knock him far out of the MVP conversation, but his season-long numbers remain impressive. In 157 games, the 23-year-old hit .247/.287/.481 (109 wRC+) with 35 steals in 43 attempts and an MLB-best +24 Outs Above Average for his work in center field. All of that combined to be worth 6.0 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR, good for 11th and 15th respectively among qualified hitters this year. A five- or six-win season from a 23-year-old who entered the year with less than 150 games of big league experience is hard to view as anything other than an exciting success, and that’s how Jed Hoyer characterized it in his end-of-season press conference shortly after the Cubs’ season came to a close in Game 5 of the NLDS.

“In totality, he had a great year,” Hoyer said of Crow-Armstrong, as relayed by Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Hoyer went on to describe Crow-Armstrong as “the best defensive player in baseball” and noted that “when he’s hitting, he’s a superstar.”

All of that rings true based on his performance this season, and as the Cubs head into an offseason where Hoyer acknowledged they hope to have extension conversations with several players, Mooney writes that locking up the team’s star center fielder “figures to be the top priority.”

It won’t be the first time the Cubs and Crow-Armstrong talk about extending his stay in Chicago beyond his years of team control. The sides discussed an extension towards the beginning of the year, before his standout first half, and Crow-Armstrong passed on a deal that reportedly would’ve maxed out around $75MM with a guarantee in the $60MM-$70MM range. Crow-Armstrong, of course, rejected that offer, and while Hoyer expressed an openness to discussing an extension with the youngster’s camp during the season no further progress on the topic was reported throughout the year. Perhaps that’s not surprising, given the unusual year Crow-Armstrong just had.

If the Cubs do intend to reopen extension talks with their budding star, what could a sensible contract look like? After entering 2025 just barely short of a full year of MLB service time, Crow-Armstrong currently remains under control through the end of the 2030 season. At that point, he figures to be ticketed for free agency ahead of his age-29 campaign. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker offers a wide range of comparable players in recent years. Players like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Lawrence Butler, and Ezequiel Tovar had less than two years of MLB service when they signed their deals, like Crow-Armstrong. They all landed extensions in the $60MM to $70MM range that the Cubs reportedly offered prior to this season, but those deals were blown out of the water by the $134.2MM guarantee Jackson Merrill landed in his eight-year extension with the Padres back in April.

Merrill is a year younger than Crow-Armstrong, meaning he signed his deal at the start of his age-22 season while Crow-Armstrong would be signing ahead of his age-24 season this offseason. Both players had five seasons left under club control before free agency, however, and were coming off similarly elite platform seasons; Merril’s 130 wRC+ outshone Crow-Armstrong, but his lesser defense and baserunning left him with a roughly comparable 5.3 fWAR. They also play the same position, making Merrill’s recent deal a logical point of reference for Crow-Armstrong overall.

It’s the second-highest guarantee an outfielder with less than two seasons of MLB service time has received in MLB history, behind the $210MM guarantee the Mariners offered Julio Rodriguez that can max out at $470MM over 17 years if all incentives are reached and options are exercised. Given that Rodriguez was in the midst of posting a 148 wRC+ with 5.7 fWAR and 6.2 bWAR in just 132 games as a 21-year-old rookie when he signed his extension, it’s safe to expect that a deal for Crow-Armstrong would come in closer to Merrill’s contract.

A contract similar to the one signed by Merrill could make some sense, and an eight-year, $140MM contract would beat Merrill’s contract in terms of both guarantee and average annual value. However, the Cubs may not be interested in such a large guarantee for only three additional seasons of team control, while Crow-Armstrong may not want to head into free agency at the tail end of his physical prime as a player who derives as much value from speed and defense.

Then, perhaps, the sides could get together on a longer contract that would buy out more free agent years. An 11-year deal that runs through the 2036 season would keep Crow-Armstrong in town for the rest of his prime and buy out six free agent years. An 11-year, $187MM guarantee would narrowly eclipse Merrill by both guarantee and AAV, while also narrowly beating out the eight-year, $184MM contract the Cubs gave Jason Heyward during the 2015-16 offseason for the largest deal in franchise history.

It would be a risky investment given Crow-Armstrong’s lackluster plate discipline, which left him with the third-highest swinging-strike rate in the majors this year. Given that risk and the fact that Crow-Armstrong is not set to even reach arbitration until next winter, it would be understandable if the Cubs decided to wait and see how the 2026 season played out before committing that sort of money to their center fielder.

On the other hand, the upside in Crow-Armstrong’s profile is obvious and Chicago’s reluctance to spend at the top of the market on free agents in recent years could mean that waiting another year could put Crow-Armstrong out of Chicago’s price range entirely. Rolling the dice on an extension for Crow-Armstrong could be the team’s best bet of securing a long-term, star-caliber talent. Meanwhile, it would be understandable if Crow-Armstrong was motivated to lock in long-term financial security ahead of a 2026-27 offseason where a contentious round of collective bargaining over the sport’s economic future is widely expected.

Cubs Place Daniel Palencia On Injured List

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September 8: Palencia has been placed on the 15-day injured list, according to multiple media personnel (including Marquee’s Taylor McGregor). Ethan Roberts has been recalled from Triple-A Iowa to take the open bullpen spot. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggests that Keller is likely to step into the ninth inning while Palencia is on the shelf.

September 7: The Cubs may be looking at going into the postseason without their closer. Daniel Palencia entered the ninth inning of Chicago’s game against the Nationals earlier today, but surrendered five runs and was pulled without recording an out. The team termed Palencia’s ailment “shoulder tightness” at the time of his removal, but manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Bruce Levine of 670 The Score) following the game that, more specifically, Palencia was suffering from a posterior capsule strain in his right shoulder.

While specifics beyond that diagnosis were few and far between in Counsell’s description of the situation, it seems all but certain that Palencia will require a trip to the injured list and be out for quite a while. Strains can naturally vary in severity substantially, but one relatively recent example of a pitcher dealing with a posterior capsule strain is Mets right-hander Kodai Senga, who was shut down due to a moderate strain in February of 2024. That kicked off what was more or less a lost season for Senga due to multiple injuries, but the initial diagnosis for that strain was expected to shut him down from throwing for three weeks.

A similar timeline would knock Palencia out for, at minimum, the remainder of the regular season and would likely result in him returning this year only if the Cubs make a relatively deep run into the postseason. Of course, it’s possible that Palencia’s capsule strain proves to be a relatively mild one that requires less time off, and it’s not impossible to imagine that he could be back on the big league mound for in time for the tail end of the regular season; a 15-day stint on the injured list, at this point, would allow Palencia to return to action during the club’s final two series of the regular season against the Mets and Cardinals.

However long Palencia ultimately ends up being sidelined, the news is a brutal blow to Chicago. Acquired from the A’s in exchange for Andrew Chafin at the 2021 trade deadline, Palencia made his big league debut in 2023 but has rounded into form as a dominant closer this year. Entering play today, the 25-year-old had posted a 2.12 ERA with a 2.59 FIP and 28.8% strikeout rate in 51 innings of work for the Cubs this year. He’s walked just 7.8% of his opponents faced and picked up 22 saves in 24 opportunities this year to go with six holds. That dominant production convinced the Cubs to back off the from the high leverage relief market. They targeted Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers to bolster their bullpen rather than landing a more surefire closer like David Bednar or Jhoan Duran.

With Palencia seemingly out of commission for the time being, manager Craig Counsell will now have to reconfigure his bullpen for the stretch run. Rogers has struggled since joining the Cubs, but Kittredge figures to be part of the late-inning mix for the Cubs alongside Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, and perhaps Drew Pomeranz. Keller and Thielbar in particular appear likely to be in the conversation for save opportunities given their dominant seasons with the Cubs this year. Keller has a 2.20 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 59 appearances, while Thielbar sports a 2.15 ERA and 2.68 FIP in 58 outings.

Palencia’s injury is the latest frustrating development for a Cubs team that already had both Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker miss todays game due to injuries. Fortunately, Counsell provided a positive update to reporters (including Levine) regarding the status of both hitters. Counsell indicated that Crow-Armstrong, who exited yesterday’s game after fouling a ball off of his shin, could be back in the lineup as soon as tomorrow for the start of the club’s series in Atlanta. As for Tucker, the All-Star hasn’t played since exiting Tuesday’s game against the Braves and Levine notes that he’s unlikely to be back in the lineup tomorrow. Even so, Counsell suggested that his running improved today and that he’s trending in the right direction towards a return to action in the near future.

Cubs Notes: Tucker, Crow-Armstrong, Caissie

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The Cubs have been without Kyle Tucker since he exited Tuesday’s game against the Braves due to a calf issue, and it’s unclear when he’ll be returning to the lineup. Yesterday, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (as relayed by Marquee Sports Network on social media) that Tucker “didn’t really make progress” during Thursday’s day off, and would be out of the lineup for another day before adding that today would be a “big day” in terms of deciding how to proceed.

That language seemed to suggest that an injured list stint was in the cards for Tucker if he wasn’t healthy enough to return to the lineup today, and Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that outfield prospect Owen Caissie was scratched from Triple-A Iowa’s lineup and brought to Chicago in case a roster move was necessary. Ultimately, however, Tucker remains day-to-day and out of the lineup without a roster move. Counsell told reporters (as noted by Marquee) today that the club thinks that they “have time to let this heal” without an IL stint, seemingly indicating that he’ll be back in the lineup within the next few days.

Injured list stints can be backdated a maximum of three days, meaning that if Tucker had gone on the shelf today he’d be eligible to return for next weekend’s series against the Rays. In that time, Caissie could have joined with fellow top prospect Kevin Alcantara to form a platoon in right field, with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and Ian Happ in right while utility man Willi Castro and DH Seiya Suzuki serve as backup options in the outfield. Instead, the Cubs have opted to keep Tucker on the roster, with Suzuki and Castro splitting time in right field while Carlos Santana fills in at DH on days where Suzuki is in the outfield.

A roster move to bolster the outfield mix may yet be necessary, however. Crow-Armstrong exited today’s loss against the Nationals due to a knee contusion after fouling a ball off of his knee. As he told reporters (including Bruce Levine of 670 The Score) after the game, the incident has caused “a whole different kind of pain” than he’s used to. Crow-Armstrong went on to indicate that a decision on his status going forward won’t be made clear until tomorrow, but it seems feasible he might be ticketed for either an injured list stint or at least a few days off due to the injury. Having both Tucker and Crow-Armstrong unavailable on the bench would stretch the Cubs rather thin, given that both Justin Turner and Carlos Santana are limited to first base and DH duties only. Those two could handle DH while Suzuki, Castro, and Alcantara mix and match between right and center field, but that’s a less than ideal solution and simply placing one of their two ailing outfielders on the shelf to make room for Caissie may wind up being preferable.

The Cubs have the good fortune of having relatively little to play for over the final few weeks of the regular season. Fangraphs gives the club a 99.8% chance to secure a playoff spot this season, while their odds of surpassing the surging Brewers in the NL Central sit at a paltry 3.1%. With a Wild Card berth more or less guaranteed, Chicago could surely afford to place either Tucker or Crow-Armstrong (or, perhaps, both) on the injured list and fill out their roster with prospects at Triple-A already on the 40-man roster like Caissie and Moises Ballesteros if they think resting their stars could put them in a better position to win in October. Of course, with Crow-Armstrong slumping badly in recent weeks (.178/.225/.243 since August 1) and Tucker having recently broken out of his own slump, it’s also possible that they would benefit from getting as many reps as possible in order to get back on track before the playoffs.

Poll: NL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Who are the frontrunners to claim the MVP Award this offseason? MLBTR’s look at the American League saw Aaron Judge come away with 55% of the vote, and today we’ll be checking out the National League:

Shohei Ohtani

The reigning NL MVP hasn’t slowed down much after his 50-50 2024 campaign. Ohtani is slashing an incredible .289/.388/.627 (174 wRC+) through 78 games this year, with 27 home runs and 11 steals during that time. His status as a DH holds him back somewhat in terms of WAR, but he’s still second in the NL among hitters according to Fangraphs. He leads the league in homers and slugging percentage and clocks in within the top five in terms of on-base percentage. Ohtani’s expected numbers are quite good as well, as his .435 xwOBA is actually better than his wOBA and trails only Juan Soto among NL hitters. Of course, the real ace in the hole for Ohtani is the fact that he’s returning to pitching this year. He’s only thrown two innings so far, but his stuff has looked good in those abbreviated outings and he figures to only ramp up the volume as the season progresses.

Ohtani’s unicorn status as the only true two-way player in the sport will likely make him a frontrunner for the MVP Award every season until he either starts facing significant decline or retires from pitching. That said, he does not currently hold sole possession of the NL lead for fWAR even when combining his pitching and hitting numbers this year. His offensive numbers have not been quite as robust as they were last year, and he notably is not stealing bases anywhere near as frequently as he did when he was the second most valuable baserunner in the NL last season. For a player who’s won an MVP award in three of the last four seasons, voter fatigue can be a consideration as well; just ask Ohtani’s former teammate Mike Trout about the 2015 season. Will those potential weak spots be enough to let another player overcome him?

Pete Crow-Armstrong

The dynamic 23-year-old’s breakout has been one of the biggest stories in the entire sport this year. Despite entering the 2025 season as a career 82 wRC+ hitter across parts of two seasons in the majors, Crow-Armstrong has slashed .273/.310/.563 (140 wRC+) across 78 games. That’s a very low on-base percentage for an MVP candidate, but Crow-Armstrong makes up for that flaw by being elite in every other regard. He’s fifth in the NL with 21 home runs, his 24 stolen bases are second only to Oneil Cruz, and he’s one of the most valuable defenders in the entire sport with +10 Outs Above Average. Taken together, it’s enough to give Crow-Armstrong a 4.0 fWAR figure that leads the league among hitters, and is tied with Ohtani when the latter’s work on the mound is factored in.

For those less statistically inclined, the fact that his breakout has been key to the Cubs’ ascent from mediocrity to become one of the league’s heavyweights could hold value with voters who differentiate between the “most valuable” player in the league and the “best” player in the league. Even with all of that going for him, it’s hard to consider Crow-Armstrong the favorite. Ohtani’s star power and uniqueness as a two-way player is difficult to match, and if he’s able to pitch effectively throughout the second half, it will be very difficult for Crow-Armstrong to not fall behind on the WAR leaderboard. What’s more, advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical of his offensive performance this year, as his .356 xwOBA is 16 points lower than his actual wOBA of .372. Crow-Armstrong’s plate discipline issues go beyond his anemic walk rate; he swings more often than any qualified hitter in baseball but has a below-average contact rate both overall and more specifically on pitches within the strike zone.

James Wood

He’s lagging behind both Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong at this point, but Wood has been every bit the phenom the Nationals hoped he would be when acquiring him as part of the Juan Soto trade back in 2022. He’s hitting .281/.377/.561 (158 wRC+) in 80 games to go along with nine steals and solid defense in left field. His underlying offensive metrics are also immaculate, with top of the scale expected numbers, elite bat speed, and a 99th percentile barrel rate. It’s an exciting offensive performance, particularly from a player who’s just 22 years old. Some MVP voters could also hold the fact that Wood and his Nationals are not contenders against the budding young star.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis is a familiar face in the NL MVP race, as he finished fourth for the award in 2020 before coming in third the following year. Injuries, a PED suspension, and a move from shortstop to right field have all changed the way Tatis is viewed around the league in the years since. That hasn’t stopped him from remaining a force within the Padres lineup, and this year he’s been one of the better all-around players in the NL. He’s slashing .264/.352/.459 (129 wRC+) with 15 homers and 15 steals, and his defensive value is second only to Crow-Armstrong among NL outfielders. Tatis also benefits from strong underlying numbers; his .390 xwOBA is 37 points higher than his .353 wOBA, and if he can play closer to those expected numbers in the second half, he could push his way up to the top of some ballots.

Other Options

While Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong appear to be the clear frontrunners at this point, Wood and Tatis aren’t the only potential challengers. Corbin Carroll is in the midst of a sensational season and was right there in the mix with the top two until news a wrist fracture yesterday left it uncertain when he’ll take the field next. Trea Turner and Kyle Tucker have both been excellent and could find themselves more firmly in this conversation if things break right in the second half. Will Smith is one of the league’s top hitters this year with a 170 wRC+ made all the more impressive by his status as a regular catcher, but he’s only played in 63 games so far.

Juan Soto’s first half has been somewhat disappointing by his standards (147 wRC+), but he’s on an absolute tear right now and his .458 xwOBA is right in line with last year’s monster performance. Elly De La Cruz is flirting with pace for a 40-40 season but hasn’t been nearly as rangy at shortstop this season in the eyes of defensive metrics, which has weighed him down a bit. He could still easily emerge as a candidate with a big second half. Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler are all in the midst of dominant seasons on the mound, but it’s somewhat rare for a pitcher to win the MVP award.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in NL MVP voting? Will Ohtani reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Crow-Armstrong step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Who Will Be The NL MVP In 2025?
Shohei Ohtani 57.18% (3,211 votes)
Pete Crow-Armstrong 25.94% (1,457 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 7.23% (406 votes)
Fernando Tatis Jr. 4.97% (279 votes)
James Wood 4.68% (263 votes)
Total Votes: 5,616

Jed Hoyer: Cubs Planning To Look For Pitching At Deadline

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Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer joined the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman for an interview on the latest edition of The Show podcast (YouTube link), and discussed a number of topics about both his team and baseball at large.  Though we’re still several weeks away from the July 31 trade deadline, Hoyer did address his first-place team’s likeliest need.

“I think we’re going to be looking for pitching, both rotation and in the bullpen,” Hoyer said.  “I don’t think that’s a secret.  That’s not a knock on the guys we have.  But I think in today’s game, you’ve got to keep building depth.”

Justin Steele pitched in just four games before his season was prematurely ended by a UCL revision surgery, thus robbing Wrigleyville of one of its top arms for almost the entirety of the 2025 campaign.  Javier Assad hasn’t pitched at all this season due to a pair of oblique injuries, and since he only started playing catch a couple of weeks ago, it would seem that a return prior to the All-Star break might not be in the cards.  Shota Imanaga hasn’t pitched since May 4 due to a hamstring strain, and Hoyer said “the hope is” Imanaga will be able to return to the rotation before the end of June.

Without their two top pitchers and another hurler in Assad that expected to at least compete for a back-end rotation job, Chicago has done well to hold its own on the rotation front even with such a depleted set of starters.  Hoyer made a point of praising his in-house starters and his team’s defense for helping the run-prevention efforts, yet bringing at least one starting pitcher into the fold seems like a logical way to reinforce the roster heading into the pennant drive.

As one might expect, Hoyer didn’t share any hints about how big of a splash the Cubs are looking to make at the deadline, and still couched his comments within the framework of “if” the front office chose to make any additions by July 31.  It could be that Hoyer may not know the answer to such questions himself at the moment, as the Cubs’ trade pursuits may hinge on Imanaga’s assumed healthy status by July 31, Assad’s progress, or any other injuries or pitchers who are under- or overachieving in the coming weeks.

Hoyer also said that Porter Hodge is expected to return from his own oblique injury before June is out, which will bring another high-leverage candidate back to help the relief corps.  As Hoyer put it, however, bullpens are “always a work in progress…I don’t think you ever get to a point of feeling comfortable or feeling like it’s a set thing.”  With this in mind, the pen will be a focus both on July 31, and “we’ll keep on making small transactions [before the deadline] as well to get marginally better.”

On the flip side of the equation, Hoyer doesn’t see the Cubs doing much to alter its impressive core of position players on the trade front.  The Cubs have been one of baseball’s best hitting teams, with the powerful offense helping make up for any of the pitching staff’s shortcomings.

“Barring injury, there are probably some small things [we’ll consider] on the offensive side, but really I think that our position-playing group has been really good….The depth we have, top to bottom, I think we’re getting production both offensively and defensively from all our spots.  That’s made a huge difference.  As I think about it, pitching is the likely direction we would take if we were adding [at the deadline],” Hoyer said.

In terms of other topics, Hoyer said he wouldn’t comment publicly on either the existence of any extensions talks between the Cubs and Kyle Tucker, or even any talks between himself and the team on a new deal, as Hoyer’s current contract is up after the 2025 season.  Hoyer repeated past comments about how he hoped Tucker would stay in Chicago over the long term, and how much he has enjoyed his own 14-season tenure in the organization as first a general manager and then the head of the baseball operations department.

Hoyer did go into a little more detail about what might now be the most impactful trade of his five-year run as PBO — the July 2021 deadline deal that brought Pete Crow-Armstrong to the then-rebuilding Cubs from the Mets for Javier Baez, Trevor Williams, and some cash considerations.  New York took Crow-Armstrong 19th overall in the 2020 draft so it wasn’t as if PCA was an unknown quantity, yet a shoulder surgery limited the outfielder to only six games in his first pro season.

The Mets weren’t willing to discuss moving more highly-touted prospects at the time, as Hoyer said such players as Francisco Alvarez, Matt Allan, and Brett Baty were “off the table” in trade talks.  Mark Vientos “was a guy that was kind of discussed a little bit but it was clear they didn’t want to part with him,” Hoyer noted, so discussions turned towards elsewhere on New York’s minor league depth chart.

Crow-Armstrong “was sort of out of sight, out of mind, I believe,” Hoyer said.  “Looking back, I think his injury didn’t allow him to perform, and therefore I think he became a guy [the Mets] were willing to trade in that deal.  So I think it was good fortune for us that they did take some really good players off the table, and most of those guys are helping the Mets right now, but Pete’s injury allowed that to happen and it worked out really well for us.”

While Hoyer felt Crow-Armstrong was going to improve as a hitter during his second full Major League season, even the executive admitted to being a little surprised at the extent of the breakout.  PCA has been one of the very best all-around players in the sport, delivering 17 homers, 21 stolen bases, and a .277/.313/.559 slash line over 275 plate appearances while also playing Gold Glove-level defense in center field.

Cubs Remain Open To In-Season Extension Talks With Pete Crow-Armstrong

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The Cubs made an effort to lock up center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong during Spring Training. At the time, an MLB.com report indicated that Chicago made an offer that could have maxed out around $75MM had all the option years been exercised — though the actual guarantee would have checked in lower than that.

Last week, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Cubs offered a guarantee in the $60-70MM range before the season started. Crow-Armstrong obviously wasn’t persuaded by that, and his asking price has surely only increased after a monster start to the year. Most extensions are concentrated during Spring Training or within the opening two to three weeks of the regular season. Players often prefer to table discussions to avoid potential distractions during the summer months.

Heyman nevertheless wrote last week that the Cubs were making “in-season overtures” to Crow-Armstrong’s camp. He indicated the team was willing to up its offer from the spring. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer predictably didn’t comment on the team’s new price range but told Patrick Mooney of The Athletic on Tuesday that the front office is willing to keep negotiations going. “Not talking during the season, to me, that’s a player-focused thing,” Hoyer told Mooney. “I’m not playing. I’ve got time to negotiate if they want.”

While Hoyer didn’t go into detail about the current state of conversations, he spoke about the reporting from April. Hoyer stated that the sides “hadn’t talked in a couple weeks when (word of the offer) leaked out” and added that “the number that came out about that wasn’t right.” MLB.com had initially reported that the offer was in the $75MM range before correcting that that number represented the approximate maximum value, including what was presumably at least one club option year.

Crow-Armstrong is playing at a level that’d put him in the MVP conversation if he keeps it up all year. He took a .280/.310/.565 slash line across 229 plate appearances into tonight’s game. He has swiped 14 bases in 17 attempts while already establishing a new career high with 14 home runs. He’s added 13 doubles and three triples and is tied for fourth in MLB (behind Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and teammate Seiya Suzuki) with 30 extra-base hits.

That would play at any position. It’s particularly remarkable from a player whose primary asset is his glove. Crow-Armstrong has been viewed as an elite defensive center fielder throughout his professional career. His early MLB results have supported that evaluation. The 23-year-old leads all outfielders with nine Outs Above Average, according to Statcast. He tied for sixth by that metric during his 2024 rookie campaign.

There’s probably still some trepidation about Crow-Armstrong’s offensive approach. He’s among the most aggressive hitters in MLB. He has walked in fewer than 4% of his plate appearances. This season’s success has come despite a middling .310 on-base percentage. The approach was certainly an issue during his debut campaign, as he hit .237/.286/.384 last year.

Crow-Armstrong entered this season with 170 days of major league service, putting him two days shy of one full service year. He’s a lock to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player at the end of the ’26 season. He will not reach free agency for another five years after this one, however. If the sides were to negotiate a deal that goes into effect next year, he’d be in the 1-2 year service class.

As Front Office subscribers can see with MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Jackson Merrill established a new standard for players in that bracket with this spring’s $135MM deal. Merrill probably took something of a hometown discount, but he also had a higher established offensive baseline than Crow-Armstrong does. Merrill hit 24 homers with a .292/.326/.500 slash over a full season as a 21-year-old rookie. He’s also a plus center fielder, albeit not quite the caliber of defender that Crow-Armstrong is. Merrill is an aggressive hitter in his own right, but he’s had sustained offensive success essentially from the moment he reached the big leagues.

Though Crow-Armstrong may have a comparable or even slightly higher ceiling, he’s not as established. During Spring Training, the Cubs seemingly valued him in the next tier of young hitters. An offer in the $60-70MM range would have aligned with recent deals for Lawrence Butler and Ezequiel Tovar. Crow-Armstrong has clearly played himself above that group within the past couple months, but there’s a broad range between them and Merrill.

Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong Discussed Contract Extension

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TODAY: The Cubs and Crow-Armstrong have ceased negotiations for now, the Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes. As per Mooney’s framing, the talks seemed somewhat exploratory in nature, and perhaps more to “lay some groundwork for the future” rather than to complete an extension immediately. There was also some conflict with Feinsand’s report in terms of the $75MM ceiling of the possible extension, as Mooney writes that “team and league sources characterized the outline of that report…as inaccurate.”

APRIL 12: The Cubs recently reached out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong’s camp with an extension offer, according to a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Feinsand relays that the deal would’ve maxed out in the $75MM range if all option years involved in the deal had been exercised, though it would not have reached that figure in terms of total guarantee. The exact structure of the offer is not known and, while Feinsand writes that the sides did not work out a deal, it’s unclear whether talks between the two sides have ended for the time being or could continue going forward.

That Chicago would have interest in extending Crow-Armstrong’s stay in Chicago beyond his years of control is hardly surprising. The longtime top prospect came over from the Mets in the Javier Baez trade at the 2021 trade deadline, and he flew through the minor leagues after arriving in Chicago to make his big league debut late in the 2023 season. Crow-Armstrong’s offense has not been anything special during his time in the majors so far, with a 79 wRC+ overall and an 87 wRC+ in 123 games last year, but he’s more than made up for that lackluster performance at the plate with phenomenal work in the field and on the bases. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths last year, including 22 straight steals without being caught.

In the field, meanwhile, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among all outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field, meaning he put up those huge numbers despite getting less than three-quarters of a full season’s worth of reps. Overall, that defensive and baserunning ability was good for 2.7 fWAR last year despite him being 13% below league average as a hitter.

The fact that Crow-Armstrong has flashed a three-win floor when prorated out over a full season has to be enticing to the Cubs even before considering his solid work on offense in the second half last year, when he slashed .260/.309/.442 with a 108 wRC+ and nine homers over the season’s final three months. If the 23-year-old were ever able to reach that sort of offensive production on a consistent basis, he’d likely blossom into the sort of perennial All-Star Chicago is surely hoping for. That all makes trying to extend Crow-Armstrong, as many other clubs have done with youngsters like Lawrence Butler and Ezequiel Tovar, a sensible goal for the organization.

With that being said, offering Crow-Armstrong a hefty contract under the expectation that he will fulfill that offensive ceiling would be very risky. He certainly wouldn’t be the first extremely talented hitter with five-tool potential to fail to reach that ceiling in the big leagues, and Billy Hamilton’s career serves as a reminder of the fact that a player can’t expect to find success purely off elite defensive and baserunning even if they play a position as defensively important as center field. That surely contributed to a recent poll of MLBTR readers winding up split nearly down the middle on whether or not the Cubs should pursue an extension with the youngster, with just under 52% of respondents voting no.

Chicago’s solution for the wide gap between Crow-Armstrong’s current offensive abilities and his demonstrated potential seems to have been to err on the side of caution. An extension that guarantees Crow-Armstrong significantly less than $75MM would fall below the standard set by many other recent early-career extensions including the aforementioned Butler and Tovar deals as well as deals signed by players like Jackson Chourio and Kristian Campbell just after or before their big league debuts. It’s hard to properly evaluate the deal the Cubs offered Crow-Armstrong without knowing more about the structure; after all, even the deal between Detroit and infielder Colt Keith maxes out in a similar range ($82MM) as the one reported for Crow-Armstrong despite guaranteeing him just $28.6425MM.

Given that even mediocre hitters with the sort of elite defense that Crow-Armstrong possesses like Harrison Bader and Kevin Kiermaier have been paid handsomely in free agency with one-year deals that often fall into the $10MM range, it makes sense that Crow-Armstrong would likely require a healthier guarantee than the one Keith received from the Tigers in order to sign on the dotted line. Evidently, the offer the Cubs presented his camp with did not pass muster, though with the youngster not presently set to hit free agency until after the 2030 season there’s still plenty of time for the two sides to work out a deal that extends his stay in Chicago past those initial years of team control.

Poll: Should The Cubs Extend Pete Crow-Armstrong?

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The Cubs’ teardown of their last core that saw them part ways with Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Craig Kimbrel over the course of nine months. That slate of moves, to this point, has offered little in terms of major league production. There are some promising prospects from trades in that teardown, such as Owen Caissie (Darvish) and Kevin Alcantara (Rizzo) knocking on the door of the big leagues, but some of the pieces acquired in the trades of Darvish, Rizzo, Bryant, and Kimbrel have already departed the organization (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Alexander Canario).

So far, the primary exception is the trade that sent Baez (and right-hander Trevor Williams) to the Mets for center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. The former first-round pick’s premium defense and speed gave him a high floor, and he continued to elevate his stock en route to billing as a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport.

In a league that’s seen an increasing number of young talents locked up long-term before reaching arbitration, Crow-Armstrong’s pedigree has long led Cubs fans to wonder if Chicago could follow in the footsteps of Arizona, Atlanta, and their brethren on the south side and lock up their young center fielder early in his career. It seems as though both the club’s front office and Crow-Armstrong himself could consider such an arrangement. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma wrote last week that the front office “would be open” to bringing an offer to Crow-Armstrong. For his part, the youngster told Sharma he’s “always open to that conversation” as well.

Both the highs and the lows of Crow-Armstrong’s profile were on full display in 2024. He hit just .237/.286/.384 (87 wRC+) in 410 trips to the plate across 123 games… and his 2.7 fWAR in center field was still tied with Jacob Young of the Nationals for the eighth-highest figure of any player at the position last year thanks to his top-flight defensive and baserunning abilities. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths, including 22 straight steals without being caught. In the field, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field.

Impressive as his rookie season was in many ways, it’s undeniable that Crow-Armstrong’s bat left something to be desired. Among 31 center fielders to get at least 400 plate appearances last year, his aforementioned 87 wRC+ ranks just 20th and puts him well behind the production of similarly gifted center fielders like Daulton Varsho, Michael Harris II, and Brenton Doyle. If the Cubs believe Crow-Armstrong will remain a below-average hitter, it’d be difficult to justify extending him when he’s already under team control through his age-28 season.

There were some signs of positive growth throughout the year, however. From July onward, Crow-Armstrong slashed .260/.309/.442 with a wRC+ of 108. His strikeout (21.6%) and walk (5.6%) rates were both slightly improved in that time, but most of that offensive boost came from a power outburst. Crow-Armstrong entered July with just one home run but crushed nine more over his final 72 games. While Crow-Armstrong’s .085 ISO through the end of June would put him in line with Andres Gimenez and Luis Arraez, his .185 ISO from July onward was more in line with hitters like Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. The increased power is reflected in more advanced metrics, as well. Crow-Armstrong’s barrel rate (4.3%) and hard-hit rate (29.8%) were both lackluster early in the season but from July onward increased to 8.9% and 40.3%, respectively.

Perhaps Harris, who signed an eight-year, $72MM extension with the Braves back in 2022, could be the most useful comp for Crow-Armstrong given his strong work in center field and up-and-down offensive production throughout his career to this point. Harris was in the midst of a dominant rookie season where he slashed .297/.339/.514 (137 wRC+) at the time of his deal with Atlanta and was also a year younger than Crow-Armstrong is now, but lacked his pedigree as a former first-round pick and top-20 prospect while also providing far less defensive value than Crow-Armstrong does.

Lawrence Butler just signed a seven-year, $65.5MM extension but did so with more than a year of service. Glove-first position players with some offensive ceiling who signed long-term deals in recent years include Ke’Bryan Hayes (eight years, $70MM) and Ezequiel Tovar (seven years, $63.5MM). Most of those deals were signed when the player had five remaining years of club control, however. Crow-Armstrong has six.

If you were in the Cubs’ shoes, would you try to lock up Crow-Armstrong long-term despite his lack of consistent offensive track record? Or would you wait to see how he develops in 2025 and beyond, even at the risk that he substantially boosts his earning power with a breakout campaign? Have your say in the poll below:

Should the Cubs extend Pete Crow-Armstrong?
No, wait to see how he develops and risk a breakout raising his asking price. 51.86% (2,634 votes)
Yes, offer him an extension despite questions about his bat. 48.14% (2,445 votes)
Total Votes: 5,079

Cubs Promote Luis Vazquez

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May 21: The Cubs have now officially promoted Vazquez, with Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times among those to relay the full slate of moves on X. Swanson was also activated off the injured list while Mastrobuoni and Pete Crow-Armstrong were optioned in corresponding moves.

May 19: The Cubs are promoting infield prospect Luis Vazquez to the majors, according to ESPN’s Jorge Castillo (who also happens to be Vazquez’s cousin).  The 24-year-old Vazquez will be making his MLB debut whenever he appears in his first game.

Since the Cubs’ next game isn’t until Tuesday, Vazquez’s call-up seems tied to Nico Hoerner’s health status.  Hoerner hasn’t played since last Monday due to a balky hamstring, and while the Cubs were hopeful Hoerner would be able to play Tuesday, it could be that the team decided that an official injured list stint was necessary to get Hoerner fully recovered.  Dansby Swanson is also already on the IL recovering from a knee sprain and was expected to be activated on Tuesday, so it is possible Vazquez could be joining the Cubs if there has been some unknown setback in Swanson’s recovery.

Whatever the case, the door has been opened for Vazquez to get his first shot at the big leagues.  A 14th-round pick for the Cubs in the 2017 draft, Vazquez didn’t do much at the plate until last season, when he batted a combined .271/.361/.456 with 20 home runs over 528 plate appearances almost evenly split between Double-A and Triple-A.  The hot hitting has continued into this season, as Vazquez has slashed .270/.369/.409 with three homers across his 164 PA with Triple-A Iowa.

This breakout year led the Cubs to put Vazquez on their 40-man roster last November in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and for some extra attention from the pundits — MLB Pipeline has Vazquez ranked as the 13th-best prospect in Chicago’s farm system, while Baseball America has him 14th.  As per Pipeline’s scouting report, Vazquez was able to straighten out his swing and make better contact after learning to lower his hands at the plate, thus unlocking some extra power potential.  Between these improvements and Vazquez’s highly-touted defense, both Pipeline and BA think Vazquez now has a path to a Major League role as a versatile bench player.

Vazquez’s glovework and throwing arm each merit 60s on the 20-80 scouting scale, and as Pipeline puts it, “he’s so good at short that Chicago rarely has deployed him at other positions.”  Vazquez does have some experience at second and third base and shouldn’t have much trouble at either position given his shortstop capability, making him an interesting utility option for the Cubs on at least a temporary basis.  Miles Mastrobuoni and Nick Madrigal have been filling the middle infield roles with Swanson and Hoerner out, and if both players are indeed back on Tuesday, Mastrobuoni could find himself relegated back to Triple-A to create room for Vazquez’s promotion.

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