Shane Baz

Could The Rays Still Move A Starting Pitcher?

By Steve Adams | March 11, 2025 at 12:05pm CDT

The Rays entered the offseason with at least seven rotation-caliber arms on the roster. Each of Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, Zack Littell, Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Ryan Pepiot has had success in a big league rotation, though injuries have hobbled several of that group in recent years. Tampa Bay already thinned out that stock of arms (and, naturally, trimmed payroll) by shipping Springs and lefty Jacob Lopez to the A’s in a deal netting them righty Joe Boyle, minor leaguers Will Simpson and Jacob Watters, and a Competitive Balance (Round A) draft pick in 2025.

The Rays now have “only” six starters with proven (to varying levels) track records in the majors. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that they’re still planning on a five-man rotation, however, adding that trading a starter in the late stages of spring training is “not out of the question.” At best, that very lightly leaves the door for a trade propped open. There’s nothing to strongly suggest the Rays are planning to deal from the rotation. Still, it’s nonetheless worth examining the team’s options if it comes to that point.

The veteran Littell would be the most obvious candidate to change hands. Tampa Bay moved the now-29-year-old righty from the bullpen to the rotation midway through the 2023 season, and the results have been better than anyone could’ve reasonably predicted. Littell solidified the staff in the second half of ’23 and pitched a career-high 156 1/3 innings with a 3.63 ERA over 29 starts last season. Since moving to a starting role after the Rays claimed him from the Red Sox, Littell has started 40 games and logged a combined 3.65 ERA with a lower-than-average 20.4% strikeout rate but a sensational 4.1% walk rate.

Each of the Rays’ other starting pitchers is signed or controlled via arbitration through at least the 2027 season. Littell is a free agent following the 2025 campaign. He’s being paid a reasonable $5.72MM. He’s not an ace by any stretch of the imagination, but based on how he’s fared since July 2023, the right-hander could step into the third, fourth or fifth spot in most big league rotations.

Trading anyone from the rest of the group is tougher to envision. McClanahan has pitched at a Cy Young level when healthy but missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s controlled through 2027. Moving him right now would mean moving their most talented starter at a time when they’d be selling low. Rasmussen signed a two-year deal with a club option earlier this offseason. That bought out his remaining arbitration seasons and gave Tampa Bay control over his first free-agent year by way of that 2027 club option. Flipping him so soon after signing him to that deal is extremely difficult to envision; MLB teams simply don’t sign a player to extension and then trade him prior to ever appearing in their jersey under the terms of that new contract.

Baz and Pepiot are under club control through 2028. The former is earning $1.45MM in 2025, while the latter has yet to reach arbitration. (Baz did so as a Super Two player.) Bradley can’t become a free agent until the 2029-30 offseason. We’re talking about the Rays, so the “never say never” caveat always applies to some extent, but acquiring four or five seasons of anyone from that bucket would very likely come at a steep price and require a team to part with MLB-ready bats that are both high-upside and controllable for a similar or even lengthier window.

Any team even contemplating a trade from the rotation at this stage of the calendar will be wary, of course. As we’ve seen throughout the league — most prominently up in the Bronx — perceived starting pitching “surpluses” can turn into deficits quickly this time of year. The Rays won’t move someone just to trim payroll, but they have depth even beyond the six arms mentioned here.

The previously mentioned Boyle, for instance, is having a nice spring and has experience in a big league rotation already. Following his acquisition in the Springs trade, president of baseball operations Erik Neander called the 6’7″ righty someone who has “the physicality and the stuff to fit at the front of the rotation.” Boyle averages nearly 98 mph on his heater but has severe command issues that need to be ironed out. Righty Jacob Waguespack might be Triple-A bound but has 105 2/3 big league innings under his belt. Prospects Joe Rock and Ian Seymour both had some success in Triple-A last year (the latter in particular). There’s no such thing as “too much” rotation depth, but that group could further embolden the Rays to listen on Littell or another big league starter if a team makes a compelling offer.

Shane Baz To Join Rays’ Rotation

By Darragh McDonald | July 3, 2024 at 1:31pm CDT

The Rays opened a rotation spot this morning by trading Aaron Civale to the Brewers. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on X that Shane Baz will take that rotation spot, likely taking over Civale’s scheduled start on Friday. For now, the Rays have recalled reliever Justin Sterner to give the bullpen an extra arm, as Topkin suggested they would.

The recall of Baz is a fairly logical next step, as it lines up with reporting from last week. Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that the Rays could make some starting pitching available, not necessarily as deadline “sellers” but simply because of being in a position where they had a relative surplus in the rotation.

At the time of that report, the Rays had a big league rotation of Civale, Zach Eflin, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot, with Baz and Jeffrey Springs both nearing returns from Tommy John surgeries. The reporting indicated that the Rays could trade one of their veteran starters to bolster their system and/or upgrade another area of their roster, then backfilling the rotation with Baz or Springs while also saving some money. All that is now coming to pass this week. Civale and his $4.9MM salary were traded to the Brewers, with the Rays adding infield prospect Gregory Barrios to their system.

The club is currently 43-42 and only three games out of a playoff spot, but the hope is that subtracting Civale while adding Baz will leave the club’s competitive chances in 2024 relatively unchanged or perhaps even improved.

Baz was acquired as part of the lopsided deal that sent Chris Archer to the Pirates for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and a player to be named later, which eventually turned out to be Baz. The young righty was already a notable prospect at that time, as the Bucs drafted him 12th overall in 2017.

His first full season in the Rays’ system was very strong, as he made 17 Single-A starts with a 2.99 earned run average. His 10.8% walk rate was a bit high but he struck out 25.4% of batters faced. After the minor league were canceled in 2020, Baz was even more impressive in 2021. He had a 2.06 ERA over 78 2/3 innings pitched between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 37.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 4.4% rate. He also made his major league debut with three starts and a 2.03 ERA.

Going into 2022, Baz was considered the eighth best prospect in the entire league by Baseball America, with other outlets similarly bullish. The Rays were surely hoping for him to establish himself at the big league level that year but his health got in the way. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove loose bodies from his pitching elbow in March and began the season on the injured list. He was reinstated in June and made six starts before being shut down with an elbow sprain which eventually led to Tommy John surgery in September.

He missed all of 2023 while rehabbing and began this year on the injured list as well. He was reinstated from the injured list in May but optioned to Triple-A to continue building up his workload there. He seemed to show a bit of rust early on, with a 7.71 ERA through his first five minor league starts this year. But he’s been quite dominant in his most recent five, with a 1.57 ERA in those outings.

Since Civale had a 5.07 ERA with the Rays prior to being dealt, it’s entirely possible that Baz will be able to upgrade the current rotation, based on the way he was pitching in 2021 and how he has looked in the past month or so. In total, the moves showcase how a club can walk a tightrope of both buying and selling, as the Rays saved some cash and netted a prospect that could help them down the line while simultaneously keeping their competitive hopes alive here in 2024.

For Baz, by spending more than a month in the minors before being recalled, his path to free agency is going to be pushed back. He came into this season with two years and 14 days of service time, thanks to his call-up late in 2021 and then two years largely spent on the injured list. But by the time he’s recalled to take the ball on Friday, it will have been more than six weeks since he was optioned on May 23, meaning he won’t be able to get to the three-year mark here in 2024.

He’ll be a lock for Super Two status at the end of this year and will therefore get four trips through arbitration instead of three, assuming he stays up with the big league club the rest of the way, but the earliest he can qualify for free agency at this point is after the 2028 campaign.

For the Rays, they could perhaps make another series of moves like this, with Springs nearing a return from his surgery as well. The lefty got up to three innings pitched in his most recent rehab start and could be ready for reinstatement shortly. Even if they trade Eflin or Littell, who can each be controlled through 2025, the long-term rotation picture looks good. Shane McClanahan should be back from his own Tommy John surgery next year and is under club control through 2027. Pepiot is under control through 2028 and Bradley one year beyond that. The Springs extension goes through 2026 with a club option for 2027. Drew Rasmussen, who is currently on the IL after last year’s internal brace surgery, can be controlled via arbitration through 2026. Tyler Alexander is on optional assignment and pitching decently in the minors, with the potential to be retained via arbitration beyond this year as well.

Rays Could Make Multiple Starters Available On Trade Market

By Steve Adams | June 28, 2024 at 11:57pm CDT

The 40-41 Rays are one of many key teams to keep an eye on as the trade deadline draws near. While they’re buried in the American League East and unlikely to close their current 10.5-game deficit, they’re also only four games out of the final American League Wild Card spot. At the same time, Tampa Bay could soon find itself with a growing number of big league starters — more than it has room to plug into its rotation.

Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Tampa Bay is anticipating righty Shane Baz and left-hander Jeffrey Springs will be ready to rejoin the rotation before long; both pitchers are on the mend from Tommy John surgery — Baz’s performed in late 2022 and Springs’ performed early last season. Baz already completed a minor league rehab assignment and has continued building up in Triple-A.

Once regarded as perhaps the top pitching prospect in the game, the 25-year-old Baz got out to a rough start during his rehab stint but has now rattled off five starts with a 1.57 ERA and 35-to-10 K/BB ratio in 23 innings. Springs has been on rehab for several weeks as well but has yet to pitch more than 2 1/3 innings in an outing. Prior to his Tommy John procedure, the now-31-year-old Springs had emerged as the latest in a long line of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds for the Rays.

Tampa Bay acquired Springs and righty Chris Mazza in a trade that sent catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez to Boston. At the time, Springs was a journeyman lefty who’d posted a 5.42 ERA over three partial big league seasons. With the Rays, he broke out to the tune of a 2.53 ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate in 196 innings. Tampa Bay rewarded that breakout with a four-year, $31MM extension — but Springs unfortunately went under the knife just three starts into the 2023 campaign.

With that pair of arms on the mend — to say nothing of righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an internal brace procedure just under one year ago — the Rays indeed have a mounting stock of arms. The Athletic trio notes in their report that of the team’s current starters — Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot — Civale and Littell are the likeliest to be available in trades. Both pitchers are in their second year of arbitration eligibility and controlled through the 2025 season. Civale, whom the Rays acquired last summer in a trade sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to the Guardians, is earning $4.9MM this year. Littell, yet another product of the Rays’ almost comical hidden-gem factory (he was claimed off waivers from Boston), is earning just $1.8MM.

Of the two, Littell is enjoying the stronger season but also has the shorter track record. He’s pitched 86 1/3 innings of 4.17 ERA ball with a roughly average 22% strikeout rate against an exceptional 4.3% walk rate. Since the Rays took the former starter-turned-reliever and plugged him back into a rotation role last July, he’s given them 27 starts with a 3.98 earned run average, 20.2% strikeout rate and even more impressive 3.6% walk rate. (I profiled Littell’s breakout in depth earlier this season in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers.)

Civale’s time with the Rays hasn’t gone as the team had hoped when acquiring him last year. He’s posted strong strikeout and walk rates alike, but his sharp K-BB profile has been undercut by a penchant for serving up home runs. The 29-year-old righty has started 26 games for Tampa Bay dating to last summer’s trade but logged a disappointing 5.26 ERA. Despite upping his strikeout rate from 21.1% with the Guards to 25.4% with the Rays and maintaining his terrific command (6.1% walk rate in Cleveland; 6.2% with Tampa Bay), Civale’s ERA has spiked from 3.77 with his former club to 5.26 with his current one. After yielding 1.19 homers per nine frames in five seasons with Cleveland, Civale has been tagged for a troubling 1.56 big flies per nine since heading to St. Petersburg.

There hasn’t been a major change in Civale’s repertoire that’s clearly prompted that flaw. He’s throwing more sliders this year at the expensive of his cutter, but it’s not an overwhelming change in usage rates and the righty is still using the same blend of six pitches (four-seam, cutter, sinker, slider, curveball and the very occasional splitter) that he used late in his Guardians tenure. His velocity has held up as well.

Despite Civale’s struggles this season, there’d be no shortage of teams interested in adding him and/or Littell to their staff for the next season and a half. Both arms are affordable — particularly for teams with CBT concerns — and there established rotation arms in general will be in short supply. That’s all the more true given recent injuries to trade candiates Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Patrick Sandoval. The leaguewide arm shortage could position the Rays to deal from their current rotation and then replace whichever starter is traded with an in-house arm that’s returning from injury.

Darragh McDonald and I discussed this possibility with the Rays on this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast, also touching on the possibility of the Rays drawing interest in right-hander Zach Eflin. He’s arguably more important to the team’s staff than either Civale or Littell, but he’s also the most expensive starter on the roster. Eflin inked a three-year, $40MM deal in free agency prior to the 2023 season. It’s a heavily backloaded pact that will pay Eflin $18MM in 2025 — a hefty number by the Rays’ typically thrifty standards. With Springs, Baz and Rasmussen all on the mend and able to join young arms like Baz, Bradley and Pepiot in next year’s rotation, the always cost-conscious Rays will presumably be open to listen on Eflin while pondering a similar gamut to the Littell/Civale scenario laid out in The Athletic’s report.

It bears emphasizing that even if the Rays end up selling — or, as they often have in the past, operating on both the “buy” and “sell” side of the market — Sammon, Woo and Mooney report that the front office is not interested in a large-scale rebuild. Even if the Rays fall out of the 2024 race, the plan will be to reload and take aim and contending again in 2025. Given the wealth of young and/or cost-controlled pitching and a perennially deep farm system that keeps churning out interesting young hitters, the Rays likely feel they have the foundation of a contending club largely in place.

As is so often the case this time of year, the Rays appear positioned as one of the teams who will in many ways dictate a fair bit of the deadline’s dealings. Whether they rattle off several wins and thrust themselves into Wild Card position, maintain the status quo as a bubble team or drop further down the standings, their slate of rehabbing quality arms gives them the flexibility to shop current big league arms — be it for other big leaguers in areas of need or near-MLB prospects who can help in 2025.

Rays Reinstate, Option Shane Baz

By Darragh McDonald | May 23, 2024 at 2:35pm CDT

The Rays announced that right-hander Shane Baz has been reinstated from the injured list and optioned to Triple-A Durham.

Baz, 25 next month, underwent Tommy John surgery in September of 2022 and missed the entire 2023 season. The club planned to bring him along slowly here in 2024 after that missed season and he also injured his oblique in March.

He started the season on the IL but has been rehabbing in recent weeks. He’s made four starts for Triple-A Durham this month, logging 12 innings. His most recent outing was yesterday, when he threw 76 pitches over four innings, striking out four, walking three while allowing three hits and one earned run.

The Rays could arguably use him in the majors, given the number of injuries they are dealing with in their rotation. Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan all underwent elbow surgery last year and are on the shelf. They have recently been joined by Zach Eflin and Jacob Waguespack.

The current rotation consists of Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot and Tyler Alexander. Both Civale and Alexander are struggling this year, with each having an earned run average over 5.00.

Prior to his surgery, Baz was trending towards making a significant impact for the Rays. He had a 4.02 ERA in his first nine major league starts, striking out 28.9% of batters faced while giving out walks just 7.2% of the time. His work in the minors was even more impressive, as he had a 1.68 ERA at Triple-A in 2021 and 2022, part of the reason why he’s been considered one of the top pitching prospects in the league in recent years.

Given his obvious talent, there’s a case to be made for plugging him into the rotation now. Each of Civale and Alexander have more experience, but they also have options and could be moved to Triple-A, or to a long relief role in the bullpen.

Instead, the Rays have optioned Baz to Triple-A for more work at that level. Perhaps that is a way of monitoring his workload in an environment where wins and losses don’t matter as much, which is a fair consideration. Baz hardly pitched in 2022 either due to elbow issues prior to his Tommy John surgery, so he’s several years removed from a significant innings tally. His career high is the 92 frames he tossed in 2021, which isn’t even that high for a starter and is now a few years in the rear-view mirror. He also hasn’t looked to be in good form on his rehab, with 11 walks to just eight strikeouts and an ERA of 6.00.

Though there’s some logic to keeping him in Durham and monitoring him, it will nonetheless have consequences for Baz. The righty came into this season with two years and 14 days of major league service time. Had he stayed on the active roster or injured list all season, he would have finished this year at 3.014, just enough to automatically qualify for arbitration and to be on track for free agency after 2027. If he ends up spending significant time on optional assignment, he could alter both of those trajectories, though he could still get to arb as a Super Two guy even if he’s shy of the three-year mark.

For now, he’ll continue with whatever plan the Rays have for building him up over the remainder of the season. Perhaps his return to the big leagues will be motivated by an injury to one of his teammates or it could just be based on some sort of workload checklist that Baz has to hit.

Rays Notes: Baz, Walls, Caminero

By Mark Polishuk | April 2, 2024 at 11:09pm CDT

The Rays got back into the win column with tonight’s 5-2 win over the Rangers. Tampa Bay broke things open with a four-run fifth inning, highlighted by a three-run home run from Isaac Paredes. On the pitching end, Zach Eflin limited the World Series champs to one earned run on five hits and a walk over 6 1/3 innings while striking out five.

With good news on the field today, the injury updates were a little more mixed, as you’ll see in this selection of Rays notes…

Shane Baz will be re-evaluated Thursday after manager Kevin Cash said the right-hander “felt his oblique again a little bit” after throwing a live batting practice. Cash told MLB.com and other media that it doesn’t seem to be a major concern, though the Rays are being cautious since Baz also had a minor oblique issue in early March. Selected 12th overall by the Pirates in the 2017 draft, Baz came to the Rays organization as part of the (infamous for Bucs fans) Chris Archer trade at the 2018 deadline, and quickly became one of baseball’s most highly-touted pitching prospects. Baz had a 4.02 ERA over 40 1/3 innings in 2021-22 before being sidelined by arthroscopic elbow surgery and then an elbow sprain, which ultimately resulted in a Tommy John surgery in September 2022. Since the Rays plan to ease him back into action with a limited innings count, Baz’s offseason prep has been moving at a different pace, with his oblique problems also acting some bumps in the road. If all goes well, Baz might be able to make his return to the majors in the middle or back half of May.
Taylor Walls is also recovering from a significant surgery, as the shortstop had a hip procedure last October that has kept him on the injured list to begin the season. However, Cash said the Rays’ plan to start Walls in extended Spring Training by mid-April looks to be on track after Walls got a “very good report” after a recent doctor visit. Depending on how much time Walls needs to get ready, late May or early June looks like a reasonable start date for his 2024 debut. The fact that Tampa Bay put him on the 10-day IL and not the 60-day IL at the start of the season indicates some hopefulness on the club’s part that Walls can indeed return before May is over. The defensive specialist has only hit .189/.289/.304 in 991 career Major League plate appearances, though it is certainly possible the long-lingering nature of Walls’ hip problems impacted his offensive production.
The Rays’ Triple-A affiliate placed Junior Caminero on the seven-day injured list today (retroactive to April 1) due to a left quad strain. The concern level was high after Caminero was forced out of Sunday’s game and had to be helped off the field, yet Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link) indicates that the injury might not be overly serious. Caminero is widely considered one of baseball’s best prospects, and after debuting with seven MLB games and two postseason games in 2023, the infielder is expected to contribute more to the 26-man roster after he gets some more minor league seasoning. Caminero’s three games with Durham this season represent his only experience at the Triple-A level, and he only has 226 games of pro experience altogether.

AL East Notes: Means, Adam, Margot, Baz, Bowman, Misiewicz

By Mark Polishuk | September 10, 2023 at 1:36pm CDT

John Means’ long recovery from Tommy John surgery is nearing an end, as the Orioles southpaw threw a bullpen session yesterday and is tentatively expected to start Tuesday’s game against the Cardinals, though the O’s haven’t yet announced most of their upcoming rotation alignment. “I’ve been waiting a while for this, so just looking forward to whenever that opportunity is, I take advantage of it,” Means told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters today.

The de facto ace of Baltimore’s pitching staff during the club’s rebuild, Means posted a 3.72 ERA over 353 1/3 innings for the O’s from 2019-2022, though TJ surgery ended his 2022 season after only two starts and eight innings. Between that procedure and then a back strain that delayed his rehab earlier this year, Means hasn’t much contributed to the Orioles resurgence that included a winning record in 2022 and now the American League’s best record in 2023. Naturally, Means is both “really excited to compete again” in general, and especially for a team that suddenly looks like a World Series contender. It remains to be seen how exactly he’ll fit into the Orioles’ pitching plans, and Means said that he hasn’t talked to the club yet about starting or relieving, though he is open to either.

Rays Select Braden Bristo, Option Taj Bradley

By Steve Adams | April 13, 2023 at 9:24am CDT

The Rays announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Braden Bristo from Triple-A Durham and optioned top pitching prospect Taj Bradley, who made his MLB debut against the Red Sox, back to Durham in his place. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, Tampa Bay transferred righty Shane Baz from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Baz is recovering from September’s Tommy John surgery and could miss the entire season, so his move to the 60-day IL was a formality.

If the 28-year-old Bristo makes it into a game with the Rays, it’ll mark his big league debut after an eight-year minor league journey. The longtime Yankees farmhand was New York’s 23rd-round selection back in 2016, and he spent the next seven years climbing the ranks in their system. Bristo topped out at Triple-A in 2021-22 and never made it to the Majors with the Yanks, however. He elected minor league free agency at the end of the 2022 campaign.

In five innings with the Rays’ top affiliate in Durham thus far, Bristo has yielded three runs on six hits with an appealing 7-to-1 K/BB ratio. He’s had little problem missing bats in parts of three Triple-A seasons overall, fanning a strong 27.3% of his opponents. His 12.8% walk rate in Triple-A, however, is far more concerning. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen has previously noted Bristo’s high-spin curveball and a heater that can reach the mid-90s in short stints, but command has been an issue for Bristo in the upper minors — at least until this season. It’s a tiny sample, of course, but Bristo has walked just one of his 22 opponents so far.

For now, Bristo will give the Rays an extra arm in the ’pen. Tampa Bay used Jalen Beeks as an opener in a bullpen game on Monday, and their ’pen has covered a combined eight innings in the two games since.

Bradley won’t be able to return to the Majors for at least 10 days unless he’s recalled in place of someone who’s being placed on the injured list. Barring that scenario, yesterday’s MLB debut will go down as a spot start for Bradley, who ranks among the sport’s top 50 overall prospects. He tossed five innings against Boston and allowed three runs on five hits and a walk with eight strikeouts.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

By Darragh McDonald | February 7, 2023 at 9:40pm CDT

Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

By Darragh McDonald | January 17, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022 season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Shane Baz To Undergo Tommy John Surgery, Brandon Lowe Won’t Return In 2022

By Darragh McDonald | September 24, 2022 at 2:32pm CDT

The Rays got two pieces of bad news today, with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relaying both (Twitter links). Right-hander Shane Baz will undergo Tommy John surgery which will keep him out of action through the end of the 2023 campaign. Furthermore, Brandon Lowe won’t return here in 2022 due to an ongoing back issue.

Baz will end his 2022 season with only 27 innings pitched over six starts, as arthroscopic elbow surgery and then an elbow sprain (which has kept him on the injured list since July) limited his ability to get onto the mound. Unfortunately, those elbow problems have now resulted in the worst-case scenario of TJ surgery, and Baz now faces another completely lost season in 2023.

It was just over a year ago that Baz made his MLB debut, making three starts for the Rays at the end of the 2021 season and then getting another start in their playoff rotation during the ALDS. While entrusting an inexperienced pitcher with a big postseason start didn’t work out well for Tampa Bay, it was a sign of just how much faith the Rays have in Baz as one of the key arms of their future. The righty had become one of baseball’s top pitching prospects during his excellent 2021 minor league season, and thus entered 2022 as a favorite for AL Rookie Of The Year honors.

Instead, Baz will now be out of action until Opening Day 2024. It is a testament to the Rays’ pitching depth that they are still in prime position to return to the playoffs even without Baz or several other notable injured hurlers (such as another Tommy John patient in Tyler Glasnow, who has missed all of 2022 but might be close to returning for some bullpen work late in the regular season or in the postseason). Still, losing Baz to TJ surgery is naturally a blow to the Rays’ present and future plans, given how young and controllable pitching is such a key plank of Tampa Bay’s strategies.

Between 2022 and 2023, Baz will bank two full seasons of Major League service time while on the injured list, though he still isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2024 season. Assuming he is able to return from rehab in good form, he can use 2024 as a platform for a decent arb payday, but obviously Baz’s first priority is just getting healthy.

In regards to 2022 alone, having Lowe for only 65 games was an even bigger short-term problem for the Rays than losing Baz, given how Lowe is an established big league talent. After top-10 finishes in AL MVP voting in each of the last two seasons, Lowe hit only .221/.308/.383 over 266 plate appearances, as he was limited by three separate stints on the IL. One of those absences was a minimal 10-day stint due to a biceps contusion, but Lowe was mostly hampered by his lower-back problem.

It remains to be seen if Lowe might require a surgical fix to fully solve his back problems, and if so, such a procedure might impact his readiness for the start of the 2023 campaign. Arbitration isn’t a factor for Lowe, who had two guaranteed seasons remaining on a six-year, $24MM extension he signed back in March 2019, and he is owed at least $15MM more on that deal (which includes two club options). Given how the Rays are always open to dealing veteran players, it would seem like Lowe’s injury and down year would certainly lessen the chance of a trade, but a move cannot be entirely ruled out.

Such a decision would hinge on how comfortable the Rays are with their other options at second base. Isaac Paredes, Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, and Vidal Brujan have handled most of the workload with Lowe out, with varying degrees of success. Walls is a premium defender who hasn’t hit much, while Paredes has shown some pop in his first season with the Rays, and Aranda has gotten off to a solid start in his first month in the big leagues. Tampa will now be counting on this mix to help them in the postseason, with Lowe no longer a possibility.

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