Shane Baz

Orioles Notes: Baz, Mayo, Rotation Additions

By Charlie Wright | December 20, 2025 at 6:51pm CDT

After spending four prospects and a draft pick to acquire him, the Orioles have high hopes for right-hander Shane Baz. “He hasn’t fully tapped into his ceiling yet, so we see him as a front end of the rotation starter,” president of baseball operations Mike Elias told reporters this week, including Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun.

Baltimore landed Baz with a package headlined by recent first-round picks Slater de Brun and Caden Bodine. He’ll likely slot in behind Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers as the club’s No. 3 starter. Baz posted an ERA up near 5.00 in his final season with the Rays. Elias cited Tampa Bay’s home venue as the potential culprit. “We see a lot of underlying information in his statistics and his performance this year suggests that he had bad luck. A lot of it was driven by the ballpark that the Rays were playing in.” Tampa Bay played its home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field this past season due to hurricane damage at Tropicana Field.

Baz did have significant home/road splits in 2025. He posted a 5.90 ERA in 16 home starts, compared to a 3.86 mark in 15 appearances on the road. Baz allowed 10 more home runs at George M. Steinbrenner Field than he did away from the venue. Interestingly, Camden Yards graded out as a slightly better hitter’s park than George M. Steinbrenner Field this past season, per Statcast’s Park Factors.

The big key for Baz could be righty/lefty splits at his new home. George M. Steinbrenner Field ranked third in Park Factor for right-handed hitters this past season, while Camden Yards was 19th. The Orioles recently moved the left field fences in after having pushed them back, and they also lowered the enormous “Walltimore,” though that side of the field has still been tough on righty bats. Baz has reverse splits, allowing much more damage to same-handed hitters this past season. Righties slugged 55 points higher against Baz than lefties, while striking out far less often and walking slightly more frequently. Baz struck out lefties at a solid 28.2% rate, but punched out righties at a middling 21.7% clip.

The swing for Baz helps solidify Baltimore’s rotation, though that doesn’t mean he’ll be the last addition. Elias said the front office will “stay hard at work” to continue improving the unit. Dean Kremer is locked into a starting spot, but the depth chart gets murky from there. Tyler Wells made it back after an extended injury absence to make four starts in September. Injuries have limited him to 37 innings over the past two seasons. Young arms Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, and Brandon Young had opportunities in 2025, but none of them delivered notable results. Swingman Albert Suarez is back with the club on a minor league deal.

Baltimore’s busy offseason has mostly focused on the hitting side, but the club was linked to Michael King before he returned to San Diego, along with current free agents Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Tatsuya Imai. The Orioles have also been connected to Freddy Peralta, Edward Cabrera, and MacKenzie Gore in the trade market. Free agents like Valdez and Suarez are now a bit more intriguing for the Orioles following the Baz trade. Both pitchers rejected qualifying offers, so teams will have to forfeit their third-highest draft pick to sign them. As Jake Rill of MLB.com points out, Baltimore would’ve ceded the No. 46 overall selection prior to the Baz deal. Now that the team has sent their Competitive Balance Round A pick (33rd overall) to Tampa Bay, the penalty for signing a Valdez or a Suarez would be the 83rd pick, softening the blow of losing draft compensation.

The Orioles made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason when they brought in Pete Alonso on a massive five-year deal. The move could potentially block Coby Mayo, though Elias expressed optimism about finding at-bats for the former top prospect. “There is still a lot of playing time available for [Mayo] on a team that has Pete Alonso now,” Elias said. “We have first base reps, we have designated hitter reps, and the exploration of other positions — whether it’s third or something in the corner outfield.”

Mayo was originally drafted as a third baseman. He spent ample time at both corner infield spots in the minors, though the majority of his big-league experience has come at first base. Mayo appeared in 70 games at first base this past season, compared to just three games at the hot corner. The 24-year-old hasn’t played the outfield as a professional.

After being overmatched in his brief 2024 debut, Mayo continued to struggle for the first few months of this past season. He turned it on in September, slashing .301/.393/.548 across 24 games to close the season. Nearly half of Mayo’s 11 home runs came over the final month of the campaign. The young slugger continued to strike out at a near-30% rate, but showed flashes of the power potential that helped move him up Baltimore’s system. The Orioles have Jordan Westburg penciled in at third base and several young options in the outfield. The club could find part-time work for Mayo if they’re determined to get him at-bats, but it would likely need to come at multiple positions.

Photo courtesy of Sergio Estrada, Imagn Images

Rays Trade Shane Baz To Orioles

By Steve Adams | December 19, 2025 at 11:58pm CDT

The Orioles bolstered their rotation with an intradivision swap netting them right-hander Shane Baz from Tampa Bay, the teams announced Friday. In return, the Rays receive outfielder Slater de Brun, catcher Caden Bodine, right-hander Michael Forret, outfielder Austin Overn and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick. Baltimore designated lefty Josh Walker for assignment to open a roster spot for Baz (more on that move here).

Baz, 26, will step right into Baltimore’s rotation. As is the case with the recently traded Grayson Rodriguez, Baz once ranked as one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. In fact, a look back at Baseball America’s top 100 prospects of the 2022 season shows Rodriguez at No. 6 and Baz right behind him at No. 8.

Baltimore, of course, traded Rodriguez and his remaining four years of club control to the Angels in exchange for the final year of club control over slugging corner outfielder Taylor Ward. Rodriguez hasn’t pitched in a big league game in nearly 18 months due to injuries. Baz has his own lengthy injury history but pitched a career-high 166 1/3 innings across 31 starts for Tampa Bay last season. The two are different pitchers with different skill sets and different levels of risk, and both are projects (to varying extents). But it’s nevertheless notable that the O’s shipped out one former top-10 pitching prospect and just weeks later effectively replaced him by acquiring another.

In 2025, Baz worked to a 4.87 earned run average but drew more favorable reviews from metrics like SIERA (3.95) and FIP (4.37). He fanned 24.8% of his opponents, issued walks at a 9% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a better-than-average 46.7% rate. Home runs were the biggest problem for Baz, who saw 15.6% of the fly-balls against him clear the outfield fence and allowed an overall average of 1.41 homers per nine innings pitched.

Specifically, Baz was homer-prone in right-on-right matchups. The Rays played last year’s “home” games at Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field (the Class-A affiliate for the Yankees) while Tropicana Field was undergoing repairs after significant damage at the hands of Hurricane Milton. Steinbrenner Field played as the second most homer-friendly venue in MLB for right-handed hitters, per Statcast’s Park Factors; Baltimore’s Camden Yards was still homer-friendly to righties, but not nearly to the same extent.

If Baz can rein in the home run woes and continue to stay healthy, he has the makings of a mid-rotation starter. Those aren’t trivial caveats, however — particularly the health one. Baz had arthroscopic elbow surgery prior to the 2022 season, returned to pitch 27 innings that summer, and then went back on the injured list due to an elbow sprain. He underwent Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of the 2023 season and the first half of the 2024 campaign.

Injury concerns notwithstanding, Baz sat 97 mph with his four-seamer this past season and got strong results on a new knuckle curveball that he hadn’t previously used in the majors. Opponents hit just .214 and slugged .321 against that newly implemented breaking pitch. Baz also works off a changeup and a cutter (getting better results with the former in 2025), rounding out a four-pitch arsenal.

The Orioles will control Baz for another three seasons. He’s a Super Two player who’s eligible for the second of his four arbitration raises this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected an eminently affordable $3.1MM salary for the right-hander. That bumps the Orioles’ projected payroll, per RosterResource, north of $140MM and gives them more than $178MM of luxury tax considerations. They’re still nearly $70MM from the first tax threshold.

Baltimore entered the offseason in clear need of rotation help. Baz adds a capable arm with some yet-untapped upside but isn’t the clear playoff-caliber starter Baltimore has sought (though he has the potential to become that). He joins Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer as rotation locks. Tyler Wells, Cade Povich, Brandon Young and Chayce McDermott are all candidates for the fifth spot who are already on the 40-man roster.

That’s solid depth, but the Orioles’ rotation still feels like it’s one veteran arm short. The team’s aggressive signing of Pete Alonso (plus acquisitions of Ward and Baz) are clear signals of a win-now mindset as they look to put an ugly 2025 season behind them. Adding a proven starter would go a long way toward realizing that goal. Baltimore has been linked to prominent free agents like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez and Tatsuya Imai — all of whom remain unsigned. Even after adding Alonso, Baz, Ward and free agent closer Ryan Helsley, their projected payroll is more than $20MM shy of last season’s Opening Day mark. There should be room to make another splash on the starting pitching front.

In exchange for the final three years of control over Baz, Tampa Bay is getting several of the Orioles’ top-30 prospects and a well-placed pick in the 2026 draft. Baseball America recently re-ranked the top-10 prospects in Baltimore’s system, placing Forret eighth among the bunch and calling him a potential No. 3 or 4 starter. The 21-year-old righty has strong command and a deep repertoire of six pitches, highlighted by a pair of above-average to plus breaking balls (curveball, sweeper). He split the 2025 season between High-A and Double-A, logging a combined 74 innings with a pristine 1.58 ERA, a huge 32.3% strikeout rate and a tidy 7.4% walk rate.

Forret is the only of the four prospects ranked inside BA’s top 10, though both de Brun and Bodine were top-10 names in the system on MLB.com’s midseason re-ranking of the bunch. The 18-year-old de Brun, in particular, is a big addition. He was selected with the No. 37 overall draft pick — coincidentally enough, a Competitive Balance Round A selection — just this past summer. De Brun didn’t play professionally following that lofty selection. He’ll head to the low minors in Tampa Bay’s system and make his professional debut there in 2026.

Baseball America called de Brun the top high school outfielder in last year’s draft class, lauding his plus-plus speed, above-average hit tool, strong throwing arm and good instincts in center field. He’s listed at just 5’9″ and has below-average power. He’ll be a yearslong development project, but if all goes well, the end result could be a table-setting center fielder with plus base-stealing ability and plus defense.

Bodine, 22, was selected seven picks ahead of de Brun in last summer’s draft. The former Coastal Carolina University standout got his feet wet with 11 games for the Orioles’ Class-A affiliate following the draft and hit well in that small sample. He’s a 5’10”, 200-pound, switch-hitting catcher who draws praise for a plus hit tool and good defensive skills. Like de Brun, he has below-average power. And, as one might expect for a catcher, his speed gets below-average ratings as well. Bodine hit .337/.440/.528 with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts during his three NCAA seasons and began his pro career with a 14-for-43 showing (13 singles, one double), five walks and eight strikeouts in 49 A-ball appearances.

As with both Bodine and de Brun, Overn is another recent, lofty draft pick for the Orioles. Selected out of USC with the No. 97 pick in 2024, he’s a blistering runner with good defensive skills but fringe power and strikeout concerns. Overn hit .249/.355/.399 between Baltimore’s Class-A and Double-A affiliates in 2025, connecting on 13 homers, 13 doubles and four triples. He also went 64-for-72 in stolen base attempts over just 114 minor league games. MLB.com ranked him 30th in Baltimore’s system following this year’s trade deadline, tabbing him as a potential fourth outfielder or, in a best-case scenario, a speed- and defense-oriented regular. He’ll likely need to improve his hit tool and/or add some more power to get to that ceiling.

The Rays also add a notable draft pick. Baltimore won the fifth pick in Competitive Balance Round A during this month’s lottery. The exact draft order isn’t set yet — draft compensation surrounding free agents who rejected qualifying offers could still impact it — but in 2025 that was the No. 37 overall selection. Coincidentally, that’s the very pick that the Rays traded to the O’s in exchange for reliever Bryan Baker. Baltimore used that pick to select de Brun. It now trades de Brun back to Tampa Bay alongside what could very well end up being the No. 37 pick in the subsequent season’s draft. Last year’s No. 37 pick had a $2.63MM slot value, though de Brun signed for an over-slot $4MM. The Rays are likely adding around $2.7MM in pool space to next year’s draft budget with the acquisition of this pick.

Subtracting Baz depletes a Rays rotation that already looked like it might be one arm short. At the moment, Tampa Bay’s rotation figures to include Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan and Steven Matz. Joe Boyle, Joe Rock, Ian Seymour and top prospect Brody Hopkins are among the internal candidates to step into the five spot. The first three are already on the 40-man roster.

However, the Rays will also surely have McClanahan on an innings limit after he missed the past two full seasons due to UCL and nerve surgeries. They’ll need to add some more innings to this group one way or another. By shipping out Baz and second baseman Brandon Lowe in separate trades this morning, the Rays trimmed more than $14MM off their projected payroll for the upcoming season. Per RosterResource, they now sit at about $78MM. That’s right in line with last year’s Opening Day mark.

Coming off a season in which they missed the playoffs and played their home games in a minor league park, the Rays may not be anxious to add a starter making $10MM+ per year. But Tampa Bay ran an Opening Day payroll of $98MM as recently as 2024 and is now under new ownership. It stands to reason that there could be some room to add a modestly priced starter in free agency. Alternatively, the trades of Baz and Lowe have only revitalized a perennially solid Tampa Bay farm system. The Rays could turn to the trade market to bring in some more help in the weeks ahead.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported that the Orioles were nearing a deal to acquire Baz. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and the Rays’ return.

Rays Have Discussed Pepiot, Baz In Ketel Marte Trade Conversations

By Anthony Franco | December 11, 2025 at 10:05pm CDT

The Rays are among a number of teams that have been tied to Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte. Arizona general manager Mike Hazen has consistently downplayed the chance of a deal coming together on their MVP-caliber second baseman, but he hasn’t slammed the door shut given the team’s need for starting pitching.

Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports that conversations with the Rays have kicked around a framework that would send both Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz to the desert. Piecoro writes that nothing is believed to be close on that front and the Rays are not necessarily any kind of frontrunner. Indeed, he adds that the Diamondbacks have had conversations with another team interested in Marte that would be built around a bigger-name starting pitcher.

Whether or not talks with Tampa Bay progress, the mention of multiple controllable starters hammers home the high asking price which the Diamondbacks have set. Pepiot landed in Tampa Bay as the centerpiece of the Tyler Glasnow return two offseasons ago. He’s the team leader with 297 2/3 innings pitched since the start of 2024.

The former third-round pick owns a 3.75 earned run average while striking out a little more than a quarter of opposing hitters. He’s a decent strike-thrower who sits around 95 MPH with his heater and has a plus changeup. Pepiot’s slider is a distant third offering, and the changeup has made him a reverse splits pitcher. He has held left-handed hitters to a .192/.287/.354 batting line with a near-28% strikeout rate over the past two seasons. Righties have hit .243/.303/.420 while punching out at a 23% clip.

Pepiot is unlikely to develop into an ace, but he’s an established mid-rotation starter who turned 28 in August. He has a little over three years of service time, so he’s under arbitration control through 2028. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.7MM salary. Teams place a premium on an affordable #3-type starter. The Rays presumably aren’t shopping Pepiot, but it’s a testament to Marte’s offensive impact that the righty would be on the table in those conversations.

Baz, 26, has also come up in trade talks with the Astros. The 6’3″ righty is a former top prospect who has yet to reach his upper mid-rotation ceiling. That’s partially due to some early-career injuries, including Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2023 season. He posted a 3.06 ERA across 14 starts when he returned in ’24. That earned him a spot in Kevin Cash’s rotation this year, but Baz had an up-and-down performance. He concluded with a 4.87 ERA across 166 1/3 innings. That’s despite a solid 24.8% strikeout percentage and 11.6% swinging strike rate.

The pure upside might be higher with Baz than it is with Pepiot. He sits 97 MPH and gets above-average movement on an 85 MPH knuckle-curve and 90 MPH cutter. Baz has plus stuff and is a decent enough strike thrower. He has been held back by a lack of start-to-start consistency. He allowed one run or fewer 10 times (including seven scoreless appearances) but also had 10 outings in which he gave up five or more runs.

Baz also has between three and four service years and is eligible for arbitration through 2028. He’s projected for a $3.1MM salary. Teams are probably divided as to whether they’d prefer Pepiot’s stability or Baz’s raw stuff, but both pitchers have significant trade value. They’re two of the three returning Tampa Bay pitchers (alongside Drew Rasmussen) who topped 100 innings. The Rays are likely to give Steven Matz a starting opportunity, but they’d certainly need to backfill the rotation if they traded two starters. Shane McClanahan hasn’t pitched since 2023. Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour have limited track records.

The Diamondbacks would require a monster return built around MLB starting pitching to move Marte. He’s coming off a .283/.376/.517 showing with 28 home runs. Marte is the best second baseman in the league and is signed for a bargain $102.5MM over the next six seasons (the final of which is a player option year).

“I think it’s a risky deal when you’re talking about trading really, really good players at all,” Hazen told Piecoro. “It’s something that we have to at least listen to in our job. It’s not something that you really look forward to, necessarily, when you have the players that we do. But it’s also the reality of our team and where we are that I have to consider some things.”

Arizona agreed to terms with Michael Soroka on a one-year deal this week. He’ll be in the rotation alongside Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt. (They’re unlikely to get Corbin Burnes back from Tommy John surgery before August.) Nelson was the only one of that trio who found much success this year. The D-Backs need to add another two starters and don’t have a ton of payroll space to address that via free agency. They’re also looking for bullpen help and could upgrade at third base or in the outfield.

While Marte is the best second baseman at least loosely available on the trade market, the Rays ironically have the second-best such option. Brandon Lowe is coming off a 31-homer season in which he hit .256/.307/.477 over 553 plate appearances. Lowe is entering the final season of his contract and is set to make $11.5MM. The Rays have reportedly gotten hits from the Pirates and Reds (surely among others) about his availability.

President of baseball operations Erik Neander touched on Lowe’s trade candidacy from the Winter Meetings (link via Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times). He called the two-time All-Star an “important, impactful player who provides power at a position that is hard to find.” Neander acknowledged the Rays’ history of shopping players whose control windows were closing but praised both Lowe and Yandy Díaz as longtime contributors.

“Our history is our history. We’ve made (trades) with players that are established, that are impactful contributors that as they get their way closer to free agency, we’ve made plenty of those decisions. But we’ve also made decisions the last few years to kind of continue to roll forward with these guys. We greatly appreciate them and are more than happy to ride in the next year and see what this team can do.”

Both clubs could go in a few different directions over the coming weeks. There’s no guarantee either will end up moving their star second baseman, but the trade market has yet to really pick up as most of the top free agent hitters continue weighing their options.

Astros, Rays Have Discussed Shane Baz

By Anthony Franco | December 8, 2025 at 7:34pm CDT

The Astros and Rays have had conversations involving Tampa Bay starter Shane Baz, report Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. There’s no indication that a deal is close to fruition, nor is it a lock that the Rays trade him at all. Baz is presumably one of a number of targets for a Houston team that is trying to add a starter — ideally via trade, given their payroll constraints.

Baz, 26, would fit the bill from an affordability perspective. He’s in his second of four trips through the arbitration process, but early-career injuries kept him from accruing significant earnings in year one. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $3.1MM sum next season, and he’s under club control through 2028.

A first-round pick out of high school by the Pirates in 2017, Baz was traded to Tampa Bay in the lopsided Chris Archer deal a year later. The 6’3″ righty developed into one of the sport’s top pitching prospects but has yet to reach the mid-rotation or better ceiling for which he was lauded. He dealt with multiple elbow issues over the early part of his MLB career. Those culminated in September 2022 Tommy John surgery. He missed the following season and spent some time in Triple-A in ’24, so he didn’t return to Kevin Cash’s rotation until around the All-Star Break that year.

Baz turned in a 3.06 earned run average across 14 starts down the stretch. That was aided by a .229 average on balls in play that papered over league average strikeout and walk numbers. The results swung in the opposite direction this year. Baz held a rotation spot all season and made 31 starts, but he surrendered 4.87 earned runs per nine. His strikeout rate actually climbed three percentage points to a solid 24.8% clip, but a spike in the BABIP and an uptick in home runs led to much worse overall results.

Despite the uneven year, Baz would have a lot of trade value. Controllable starting pitching is very difficult to acquire. That’s especially true when it’s a former top prospect who averages 97 MPH on his fastball. Baz has a four-pitch mix and did a solid job handling left-handed hitters. His command isn’t elite but close enough to league average to stick as a starter. He has so far been held back by a lack of start-to-start consistency. Baz allowed one run or fewer 10 times (including seven scoreless appearances) but also had 10 outings in which he gave up five or more runs.

Tampa Bay is under no pressure to trade Baz, but they tend to be open to conversations on almost anyone on the roster. There’d be some parallels to last summer’s deadline deal in which they shipped Taj Bradley to Minnesota (though he’d fallen far enough in their view that they’d optioned him to Triple-A shortly before trading him). They swapped Bradley for a controllable high-leverage reliever in Griffin Jax and would presumably want to build a Baz return mostly around MLB pieces as well.

The Astros have one of the weakest farm systems in the game. Speaking broadly about the team’s trade conversations, general manager Dana Brown acknowledged to The Athletic that opposing clubs have focused more on their big league roster. Center fielder Jake Meyers is reportedly available in talks for a starter.

While there’s no firm indication that Meyers is a target for the Rays specifically, he’d make sense given their outfield questions. Tampa Bay did sign Cedric Mullins to a one-year deal last week, but he could factor into an uncertain corner outfield mix if the Rays acquired a superior defender in Meyers. It’s unlikely that Tampa Bay would agree to a one-for-one swap given the scarcity of starting pitching, however. Rome and Rosenthal report that the Rays like High-A pitching prospect Anderson Brito, who could be a secondary piece in a larger deal.

The Astros are expected to lose Framber Valdez, leaving them with plenty of questions behind ace Hunter Brown. They’ll slot Cristian Javier in the mix and have the likes of Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Jason Alexander, Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson and Lance McCullers Jr. competing for spots. It’s not nearly deep enough for a team that intends to compete for the AL West title.

Houston has been linked to some free agent possibilities (Ranger Suárez, most notably). They’re reportedly reluctant to surpass the $244MM luxury tax line, though, and RosterResource has them less than $25MM from the threshold. They could also use a left-handed hitting utility infielder and a backup catcher, and they’ll want to keep some payroll space aside for midseason additions. That might inhibit their ability to add a mid-rotation arm in free agency. Relatedly, Brown told reporters (including Rome) this evening that the club would prefer not to sign a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer and would cost them draft compensation. That lists includes Suárez, Michael King and Zac Gallen.

Could The Rays Still Move A Starting Pitcher?

By Steve Adams | March 11, 2025 at 12:05pm CDT

The Rays entered the offseason with at least seven rotation-caliber arms on the roster. Each of Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, Zack Littell, Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Ryan Pepiot has had success in a big league rotation, though injuries have hobbled several of that group in recent years. Tampa Bay already thinned out that stock of arms (and, naturally, trimmed payroll) by shipping Springs and lefty Jacob Lopez to the A’s in a deal netting them righty Joe Boyle, minor leaguers Will Simpson and Jacob Watters, and a Competitive Balance (Round A) draft pick in 2025.

The Rays now have “only” six starters with proven (to varying levels) track records in the majors. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that they’re still planning on a five-man rotation, however, adding that trading a starter in the late stages of spring training is “not out of the question.” At best, that very lightly leaves the door for a trade propped open. There’s nothing to strongly suggest the Rays are planning to deal from the rotation. Still, it’s nonetheless worth examining the team’s options if it comes to that point.

The veteran Littell would be the most obvious candidate to change hands. Tampa Bay moved the now-29-year-old righty from the bullpen to the rotation midway through the 2023 season, and the results have been better than anyone could’ve reasonably predicted. Littell solidified the staff in the second half of ’23 and pitched a career-high 156 1/3 innings with a 3.63 ERA over 29 starts last season. Since moving to a starting role after the Rays claimed him from the Red Sox, Littell has started 40 games and logged a combined 3.65 ERA with a lower-than-average 20.4% strikeout rate but a sensational 4.1% walk rate.

Each of the Rays’ other starting pitchers is signed or controlled via arbitration through at least the 2027 season. Littell is a free agent following the 2025 campaign. He’s being paid a reasonable $5.72MM. He’s not an ace by any stretch of the imagination, but based on how he’s fared since July 2023, the right-hander could step into the third, fourth or fifth spot in most big league rotations.

Trading anyone from the rest of the group is tougher to envision. McClanahan has pitched at a Cy Young level when healthy but missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s controlled through 2027. Moving him right now would mean moving their most talented starter at a time when they’d be selling low. Rasmussen signed a two-year deal with a club option earlier this offseason. That bought out his remaining arbitration seasons and gave Tampa Bay control over his first free-agent year by way of that 2027 club option. Flipping him so soon after signing him to that deal is extremely difficult to envision; MLB teams simply don’t sign a player to extension and then trade him prior to ever appearing in their jersey under the terms of that new contract.

Baz and Pepiot are under club control through 2028. The former is earning $1.45MM in 2025, while the latter has yet to reach arbitration. (Baz did so as a Super Two player.) Bradley can’t become a free agent until the 2029-30 offseason. We’re talking about the Rays, so the “never say never” caveat always applies to some extent, but acquiring four or five seasons of anyone from that bucket would very likely come at a steep price and require a team to part with MLB-ready bats that are both high-upside and controllable for a similar or even lengthier window.

Any team even contemplating a trade from the rotation at this stage of the calendar will be wary, of course. As we’ve seen throughout the league — most prominently up in the Bronx — perceived starting pitching “surpluses” can turn into deficits quickly this time of year. The Rays won’t move someone just to trim payroll, but they have depth even beyond the six arms mentioned here.

The previously mentioned Boyle, for instance, is having a nice spring and has experience in a big league rotation already. Following his acquisition in the Springs trade, president of baseball operations Erik Neander called the 6’7″ righty someone who has “the physicality and the stuff to fit at the front of the rotation.” Boyle averages nearly 98 mph on his heater but has severe command issues that need to be ironed out. Righty Jacob Waguespack might be Triple-A bound but has 105 2/3 big league innings under his belt. Prospects Joe Rock and Ian Seymour both had some success in Triple-A last year (the latter in particular). There’s no such thing as “too much” rotation depth, but that group could further embolden the Rays to listen on Littell or another big league starter if a team makes a compelling offer.

Shane Baz To Join Rays’ Rotation

By Darragh McDonald | July 3, 2024 at 1:31pm CDT

The Rays opened a rotation spot this morning by trading Aaron Civale to the Brewers. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on X that Shane Baz will take that rotation spot, likely taking over Civale’s scheduled start on Friday. For now, the Rays have recalled reliever Justin Sterner to give the bullpen an extra arm, as Topkin suggested they would.

The recall of Baz is a fairly logical next step, as it lines up with reporting from last week. Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that the Rays could make some starting pitching available, not necessarily as deadline “sellers” but simply because of being in a position where they had a relative surplus in the rotation.

At the time of that report, the Rays had a big league rotation of Civale, Zach Eflin, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot, with Baz and Jeffrey Springs both nearing returns from Tommy John surgeries. The reporting indicated that the Rays could trade one of their veteran starters to bolster their system and/or upgrade another area of their roster, then backfilling the rotation with Baz or Springs while also saving some money. All that is now coming to pass this week. Civale and his $4.9MM salary were traded to the Brewers, with the Rays adding infield prospect Gregory Barrios to their system.

The club is currently 43-42 and only three games out of a playoff spot, but the hope is that subtracting Civale while adding Baz will leave the club’s competitive chances in 2024 relatively unchanged or perhaps even improved.

Baz was acquired as part of the lopsided deal that sent Chris Archer to the Pirates for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and a player to be named later, which eventually turned out to be Baz. The young righty was already a notable prospect at that time, as the Bucs drafted him 12th overall in 2017.

His first full season in the Rays’ system was very strong, as he made 17 Single-A starts with a 2.99 earned run average. His 10.8% walk rate was a bit high but he struck out 25.4% of batters faced. After the minor league were canceled in 2020, Baz was even more impressive in 2021. He had a 2.06 ERA over 78 2/3 innings pitched between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 37.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 4.4% rate. He also made his major league debut with three starts and a 2.03 ERA.

Going into 2022, Baz was considered the eighth best prospect in the entire league by Baseball America, with other outlets similarly bullish. The Rays were surely hoping for him to establish himself at the big league level that year but his health got in the way. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove loose bodies from his pitching elbow in March and began the season on the injured list. He was reinstated in June and made six starts before being shut down with an elbow sprain which eventually led to Tommy John surgery in September.

He missed all of 2023 while rehabbing and began this year on the injured list as well. He was reinstated from the injured list in May but optioned to Triple-A to continue building up his workload there. He seemed to show a bit of rust early on, with a 7.71 ERA through his first five minor league starts this year. But he’s been quite dominant in his most recent five, with a 1.57 ERA in those outings.

Since Civale had a 5.07 ERA with the Rays prior to being dealt, it’s entirely possible that Baz will be able to upgrade the current rotation, based on the way he was pitching in 2021 and how he has looked in the past month or so. In total, the moves showcase how a club can walk a tightrope of both buying and selling, as the Rays saved some cash and netted a prospect that could help them down the line while simultaneously keeping their competitive hopes alive here in 2024.

For Baz, by spending more than a month in the minors before being recalled, his path to free agency is going to be pushed back. He came into this season with two years and 14 days of service time, thanks to his call-up late in 2021 and then two years largely spent on the injured list. But by the time he’s recalled to take the ball on Friday, it will have been more than six weeks since he was optioned on May 23, meaning he won’t be able to get to the three-year mark here in 2024.

He’ll be a lock for Super Two status at the end of this year and will therefore get four trips through arbitration instead of three, assuming he stays up with the big league club the rest of the way, but the earliest he can qualify for free agency at this point is after the 2028 campaign.

For the Rays, they could perhaps make another series of moves like this, with Springs nearing a return from his surgery as well. The lefty got up to three innings pitched in his most recent rehab start and could be ready for reinstatement shortly. Even if they trade Eflin or Littell, who can each be controlled through 2025, the long-term rotation picture looks good. Shane McClanahan should be back from his own Tommy John surgery next year and is under club control through 2027. Pepiot is under control through 2028 and Bradley one year beyond that. The Springs extension goes through 2026 with a club option for 2027. Drew Rasmussen, who is currently on the IL after last year’s internal brace surgery, can be controlled via arbitration through 2026. Tyler Alexander is on optional assignment and pitching decently in the minors, with the potential to be retained via arbitration beyond this year as well.

Rays Could Make Multiple Starters Available On Trade Market

By Steve Adams | June 28, 2024 at 11:57pm CDT

The 40-41 Rays are one of many key teams to keep an eye on as the trade deadline draws near. While they’re buried in the American League East and unlikely to close their current 10.5-game deficit, they’re also only four games out of the final American League Wild Card spot. At the same time, Tampa Bay could soon find itself with a growing number of big league starters — more than it has room to plug into its rotation.

Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Tampa Bay is anticipating righty Shane Baz and left-hander Jeffrey Springs will be ready to rejoin the rotation before long; both pitchers are on the mend from Tommy John surgery — Baz’s performed in late 2022 and Springs’ performed early last season. Baz already completed a minor league rehab assignment and has continued building up in Triple-A.

Once regarded as perhaps the top pitching prospect in the game, the 25-year-old Baz got out to a rough start during his rehab stint but has now rattled off five starts with a 1.57 ERA and 35-to-10 K/BB ratio in 23 innings. Springs has been on rehab for several weeks as well but has yet to pitch more than 2 1/3 innings in an outing. Prior to his Tommy John procedure, the now-31-year-old Springs had emerged as the latest in a long line of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds for the Rays.

Tampa Bay acquired Springs and righty Chris Mazza in a trade that sent catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez to Boston. At the time, Springs was a journeyman lefty who’d posted a 5.42 ERA over three partial big league seasons. With the Rays, he broke out to the tune of a 2.53 ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate in 196 innings. Tampa Bay rewarded that breakout with a four-year, $31MM extension — but Springs unfortunately went under the knife just three starts into the 2023 campaign.

With that pair of arms on the mend — to say nothing of righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an internal brace procedure just under one year ago — the Rays indeed have a mounting stock of arms. The Athletic trio notes in their report that of the team’s current starters — Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot — Civale and Littell are the likeliest to be available in trades. Both pitchers are in their second year of arbitration eligibility and controlled through the 2025 season. Civale, whom the Rays acquired last summer in a trade sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to the Guardians, is earning $4.9MM this year. Littell, yet another product of the Rays’ almost comical hidden-gem factory (he was claimed off waivers from Boston), is earning just $1.8MM.

Of the two, Littell is enjoying the stronger season but also has the shorter track record. He’s pitched 86 1/3 innings of 4.17 ERA ball with a roughly average 22% strikeout rate against an exceptional 4.3% walk rate. Since the Rays took the former starter-turned-reliever and plugged him back into a rotation role last July, he’s given them 27 starts with a 3.98 earned run average, 20.2% strikeout rate and even more impressive 3.6% walk rate. (I profiled Littell’s breakout in depth earlier this season in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers.)

Civale’s time with the Rays hasn’t gone as the team had hoped when acquiring him last year. He’s posted strong strikeout and walk rates alike, but his sharp K-BB profile has been undercut by a penchant for serving up home runs. The 29-year-old righty has started 26 games for Tampa Bay dating to last summer’s trade but logged a disappointing 5.26 ERA. Despite upping his strikeout rate from 21.1% with the Guards to 25.4% with the Rays and maintaining his terrific command (6.1% walk rate in Cleveland; 6.2% with Tampa Bay), Civale’s ERA has spiked from 3.77 with his former club to 5.26 with his current one. After yielding 1.19 homers per nine frames in five seasons with Cleveland, Civale has been tagged for a troubling 1.56 big flies per nine since heading to St. Petersburg.

There hasn’t been a major change in Civale’s repertoire that’s clearly prompted that flaw. He’s throwing more sliders this year at the expensive of his cutter, but it’s not an overwhelming change in usage rates and the righty is still using the same blend of six pitches (four-seam, cutter, sinker, slider, curveball and the very occasional splitter) that he used late in his Guardians tenure. His velocity has held up as well.

Despite Civale’s struggles this season, there’d be no shortage of teams interested in adding him and/or Littell to their staff for the next season and a half. Both arms are affordable — particularly for teams with CBT concerns — and there established rotation arms in general will be in short supply. That’s all the more true given recent injuries to trade candiates Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Patrick Sandoval. The leaguewide arm shortage could position the Rays to deal from their current rotation and then replace whichever starter is traded with an in-house arm that’s returning from injury.

Darragh McDonald and I discussed this possibility with the Rays on this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast, also touching on the possibility of the Rays drawing interest in right-hander Zach Eflin. He’s arguably more important to the team’s staff than either Civale or Littell, but he’s also the most expensive starter on the roster. Eflin inked a three-year, $40MM deal in free agency prior to the 2023 season. It’s a heavily backloaded pact that will pay Eflin $18MM in 2025 — a hefty number by the Rays’ typically thrifty standards. With Springs, Baz and Rasmussen all on the mend and able to join young arms like Baz, Bradley and Pepiot in next year’s rotation, the always cost-conscious Rays will presumably be open to listen on Eflin while pondering a similar gamut to the Littell/Civale scenario laid out in The Athletic’s report.

It bears emphasizing that even if the Rays end up selling — or, as they often have in the past, operating on both the “buy” and “sell” side of the market — Sammon, Woo and Mooney report that the front office is not interested in a large-scale rebuild. Even if the Rays fall out of the 2024 race, the plan will be to reload and take aim and contending again in 2025. Given the wealth of young and/or cost-controlled pitching and a perennially deep farm system that keeps churning out interesting young hitters, the Rays likely feel they have the foundation of a contending club largely in place.

As is so often the case this time of year, the Rays appear positioned as one of the teams who will in many ways dictate a fair bit of the deadline’s dealings. Whether they rattle off several wins and thrust themselves into Wild Card position, maintain the status quo as a bubble team or drop further down the standings, their slate of rehabbing quality arms gives them the flexibility to shop current big league arms — be it for other big leaguers in areas of need or near-MLB prospects who can help in 2025.

Rays Reinstate, Option Shane Baz

By Darragh McDonald | May 23, 2024 at 2:35pm CDT

The Rays announced that right-hander Shane Baz has been reinstated from the injured list and optioned to Triple-A Durham.

Baz, 25 next month, underwent Tommy John surgery in September of 2022 and missed the entire 2023 season. The club planned to bring him along slowly here in 2024 after that missed season and he also injured his oblique in March.

He started the season on the IL but has been rehabbing in recent weeks. He’s made four starts for Triple-A Durham this month, logging 12 innings. His most recent outing was yesterday, when he threw 76 pitches over four innings, striking out four, walking three while allowing three hits and one earned run.

The Rays could arguably use him in the majors, given the number of injuries they are dealing with in their rotation. Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan all underwent elbow surgery last year and are on the shelf. They have recently been joined by Zach Eflin and Jacob Waguespack.

The current rotation consists of Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot and Tyler Alexander. Both Civale and Alexander are struggling this year, with each having an earned run average over 5.00.

Prior to his surgery, Baz was trending towards making a significant impact for the Rays. He had a 4.02 ERA in his first nine major league starts, striking out 28.9% of batters faced while giving out walks just 7.2% of the time. His work in the minors was even more impressive, as he had a 1.68 ERA at Triple-A in 2021 and 2022, part of the reason why he’s been considered one of the top pitching prospects in the league in recent years.

Given his obvious talent, there’s a case to be made for plugging him into the rotation now. Each of Civale and Alexander have more experience, but they also have options and could be moved to Triple-A, or to a long relief role in the bullpen.

Instead, the Rays have optioned Baz to Triple-A for more work at that level. Perhaps that is a way of monitoring his workload in an environment where wins and losses don’t matter as much, which is a fair consideration. Baz hardly pitched in 2022 either due to elbow issues prior to his Tommy John surgery, so he’s several years removed from a significant innings tally. His career high is the 92 frames he tossed in 2021, which isn’t even that high for a starter and is now a few years in the rear-view mirror. He also hasn’t looked to be in good form on his rehab, with 11 walks to just eight strikeouts and an ERA of 6.00.

Though there’s some logic to keeping him in Durham and monitoring him, it will nonetheless have consequences for Baz. The righty came into this season with two years and 14 days of major league service time. Had he stayed on the active roster or injured list all season, he would have finished this year at 3.014, just enough to automatically qualify for arbitration and to be on track for free agency after 2027. If he ends up spending significant time on optional assignment, he could alter both of those trajectories, though he could still get to arb as a Super Two guy even if he’s shy of the three-year mark.

For now, he’ll continue with whatever plan the Rays have for building him up over the remainder of the season. Perhaps his return to the big leagues will be motivated by an injury to one of his teammates or it could just be based on some sort of workload checklist that Baz has to hit.

Rays Notes: Baz, Walls, Caminero

By Mark Polishuk | April 2, 2024 at 11:09pm CDT

The Rays got back into the win column with tonight’s 5-2 win over the Rangers. Tampa Bay broke things open with a four-run fifth inning, highlighted by a three-run home run from Isaac Paredes. On the pitching end, Zach Eflin limited the World Series champs to one earned run on five hits and a walk over 6 1/3 innings while striking out five.

With good news on the field today, the injury updates were a little more mixed, as you’ll see in this selection of Rays notes…

Shane Baz will be re-evaluated Thursday after manager Kevin Cash said the right-hander “felt his oblique again a little bit” after throwing a live batting practice. Cash told MLB.com and other media that it doesn’t seem to be a major concern, though the Rays are being cautious since Baz also had a minor oblique issue in early March. Selected 12th overall by the Pirates in the 2017 draft, Baz came to the Rays organization as part of the (infamous for Bucs fans) Chris Archer trade at the 2018 deadline, and quickly became one of baseball’s most highly-touted pitching prospects. Baz had a 4.02 ERA over 40 1/3 innings in 2021-22 before being sidelined by arthroscopic elbow surgery and then an elbow sprain, which ultimately resulted in a Tommy John surgery in September 2022. Since the Rays plan to ease him back into action with a limited innings count, Baz’s offseason prep has been moving at a different pace, with his oblique problems also acting some bumps in the road. If all goes well, Baz might be able to make his return to the majors in the middle or back half of May.
Taylor Walls is also recovering from a significant surgery, as the shortstop had a hip procedure last October that has kept him on the injured list to begin the season. However, Cash said the Rays’ plan to start Walls in extended Spring Training by mid-April looks to be on track after Walls got a “very good report” after a recent doctor visit. Depending on how much time Walls needs to get ready, late May or early June looks like a reasonable start date for his 2024 debut. The fact that Tampa Bay put him on the 10-day IL and not the 60-day IL at the start of the season indicates some hopefulness on the club’s part that Walls can indeed return before May is over. The defensive specialist has only hit .189/.289/.304 in 991 career Major League plate appearances, though it is certainly possible the long-lingering nature of Walls’ hip problems impacted his offensive production.
The Rays’ Triple-A affiliate placed Junior Caminero on the seven-day injured list today (retroactive to April 1) due to a left quad strain. The concern level was high after Caminero was forced out of Sunday’s game and had to be helped off the field, yet Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link) indicates that the injury might not be overly serious. Caminero is widely considered one of baseball’s best prospects, and after debuting with seven MLB games and two postseason games in 2023, the infielder is expected to contribute more to the 26-man roster after he gets some more minor league seasoning. Caminero’s three games with Durham this season represent his only experience at the Triple-A level, and he only has 226 games of pro experience altogether.

AL East Notes: Means, Adam, Margot, Baz, Bowman, Misiewicz

By Mark Polishuk | September 10, 2023 at 1:36pm CDT

John Means’ long recovery from Tommy John surgery is nearing an end, as the Orioles southpaw threw a bullpen session yesterday and is tentatively expected to start Tuesday’s game against the Cardinals, though the O’s haven’t yet announced most of their upcoming rotation alignment. “I’ve been waiting a while for this, so just looking forward to whenever that opportunity is, I take advantage of it,” Means told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters today.

The de facto ace of Baltimore’s pitching staff during the club’s rebuild, Means posted a 3.72 ERA over 353 1/3 innings for the O’s from 2019-2022, though TJ surgery ended his 2022 season after only two starts and eight innings. Between that procedure and then a back strain that delayed his rehab earlier this year, Means hasn’t much contributed to the Orioles resurgence that included a winning record in 2022 and now the American League’s best record in 2023. Naturally, Means is both “really excited to compete again” in general, and especially for a team that suddenly looks like a World Series contender. It remains to be seen how exactly he’ll fit into the Orioles’ pitching plans, and Means said that he hasn’t talked to the club yet about starting or relieving, though he is open to either.

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