Last week, MLBTR took our first look at the top 10 players (based on predicted earning power) in the 2026-27 free agent class. There's always a lot of volatility this early in players' walk years. That's especially true of next year's group, which has a clear headliner in Tarik Skubal but is otherwise light in high-end talent.
MLBTR's free agent rankings are an attempt at consensus between Steve Adams, Darragh McDonald, Tim Dierkes and myself. There's usually overlap within the top handful of spots, but our individual lists typically start to differ within the back half of the top 10. The second and third tiers of free agents become more muddled and personal preferences come more into play. Skubal was a consensus pick at #1, and we each had Freddy Peralta and Bo Bichette in some order at #2 and #3. It diverged from there.
For example, Steve Adams had Trevor Rogers as his #4 free agent, while I had Rogers outside my personal top 10. (The Baltimore lefty ended up at #5 in the consensus ranking.) There's not much separation between players at the back of the top 10 and the best of the honorable mentions. With that in mind, let's take a look at five players who landed just outside the top 10. Most of these players had some support from at least one MLBTR writer for making the list, and any of them could plausibly jump into future iterations based on their performance over the next few months.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays
If we were ranking players by the projected annual value of their next contract, Gausman would probably have landed in the top five. The two-time All-Star should do very well on a per year basis. It's nevertheless difficult to see him getting to a nine-figure deal when he'll turn 36 next January. There hasn't been a four-year deal for a 36-year-old free agent pitcher in almost 20 years.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Trevor Rogers outside the Top 10???
He was #5
That seems low for Happ. I’ll allow it’s about what I expect teams to be willing to commit to *before* the lockout. However, I’d expect Happ’s camp to look more in the direction of 3/80 or 4/100. Hell, Castellanos got 5/100 a half decade ago coming off a career year similar to Happ’s typical performance. Castellanos only projected for ~2.5 WAR in his first year as a Phillie, albeit as a 30-year-old. Between salary inflation and his superior play to comps, Happ should crush a $20MM AAV.
Some of Happ’s value os derived from defense which is most often something teams do not pay a premium for. Castellanos was coming off a 34 HR season and had a history of being a more consistent hitter. Teams pay a premium for offense.
That’s not strictly true. He was coming off a 140 wRC+ which is a little better than recent Happ (barely), but he also only projected for a ~120 wRC+ whereas Happ still projects in the 125-130 range next year. That could change, but until it does, I’d bet on Happ finding a healthier AAV than $20MM.
Apologies, Happ also projects for a 120 wRC+. I pulled the wrong table. Doesn’t change the conclusion.
Hes Harrison Bader that walks slightly more and hits a handful more HRs per season. Happ has played 200 more games and over 10 yrs has accumulated 5 WAR more than Bader.
I personally like Happ, Im just stating reality. MLB teams pay a premium for offense as it generates revenue.
Bader has produced one season with offense anywhere similar to Happ. And it was quite obviously babip-fueled. Happ is one of the steadiest above average hitters in the league.
You keep saying teams pay for offense (which I’m not disputing, it’s more entertaining than defense, hence it’s the preferred way to build a good team). However, Happ provides plenty of offense.
I would agree but unless the team is getting elite offense on the IF, most teams won’t pay 100 million for a glove man w a solid bat in LF as he ages
Ok, I think y’all are overlooking quite a few market characteristics that improve Happ’s outlook. But I’m not going to belabor the point any further when he might just invalidate the whole debate with his performance or an injury.