This week's mailbag gets into how the Cubs' recent big contracts will age, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s future at second base, the left side of the Brewers' infield, the Yankees' bullpen, and more.
Alex asks:
How overdramatic of a take is this? Within 2 years, all three of Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will be upside down on the value of their deals. I've thought the Bregman deal would age like milk from the jump. Hoerner is solid but it's a lot of money to pay a Luis Arraez that can play a good 2b. And PCA's bat has always been suspect. There will a lot of good defense and PCA will steal some bases, but not a ton else.
I agree with your broader point: the Cubs recently committed to a $431MM to a fairly risky trio.
Back in January, I felt Davy Andrews of FanGraphs did a nice job articulating the downside risk of signing Bregman through the age of 36. The key passage: "He’s not starting out with much margin for error, so things could get ugly when his bat speed or his contact skills start to go. And Bregman is already slow and a below-average baserunner. He already has a weak arm. When the first-step quickness goes, the defense could crater pretty quickly too."
Baseball player aging does not happen in a nice, linear, predictable fashion. At some point during this contract, Bregman is going to be pretty bad. The Cubs are betting it'll be the last year or two. It would not be crazy to bet major decline and/or increased missed time due to injury sets in earlier than that.
Bregman had 42.9 Baseball-Reference WAR through the age of 31. That ranks 17th in baseball history for those who played at least 90% of their games at third. Let's make a list of those near Bregman on that list, excluding Harlond Clift and Bill Bradley for playing too long ago. Here's their WAR from age 32-36:
- David Wright: 0.5 WAR age 32-36
- Sal Bando: 15.1 WAR
- Robin Ventura: 9.9 WAR
- Ken Boyer: 17.4 WAR
- Graig Nettles: 18.0 WAR
- Matt Williams: 8.8 WAR
- Troy Glaus: 0.0 WAR
Williams and Glaus were linked to PED use, so we might set them aside. If we do that and assume Bregman will not enter a Wright-level injury spiral, these comps suggests there's actually a decent chance Bregman puts together a 15-WAR Cubs career. That might put him in "Hall of Very Good" Evan Longoria territory. More germane to this question, the Cubs would feel they got their money's worth.
Longoria is actually another cautionary tale, as a third baseman who had a better career than Bregman by age 32 but managed only 6.8 WAR from 32-36. It's also worth considering that Bregman had a 125 wRC+ at age 31; Longo was a league average hitter by that point. It was his early Rays career that had Longoria on a Hall of Fame track through age 30.
If Bregman can manage something around 5.5 WAR for 2026-27, then I probably wouldn't call his contract upside-down at that point. You can read up on some good dollars-per-WAR stuff from Ben Clemens at FanGraphs here, but I'll ballpark the market at $12MM per WAR (per year) for a regular-caliber player based on that. And that's putting aside the insane amount of money big market teams occasionally pay per star player WAR, like the Dodgers with Kyle Tucker.
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But Bregman is shiny and expensive. That’s all that counts right?
Baa… baa..
We both know that the Bregman signing has relegated Matt Shaw to the Cubs bench or the OF. With that in mind, perhaps the Cubs can acquire something “shiny” and less “expensive” peddling Shaw this summer or next offseason. Maybe even a real outfielder to replace Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki come 2027.
Starting to think Mike Trout finally gets traded at the deadline. Definitely thinking Phillies or Mets. Probably Philly. He looks back finally! He’s on fire! 🔥 🔥 🔥
Cubs would have been better off with Shaw at 3rd and spent that money on pitching
I agree, Shaw is probably better defender at 3B now, and almost certainly would be in the next couple years of playing there everyday.
Also, his bat was much better than Bregman’s the entire 2nd half of last season. And he’s out-hitting him so far in ‘26 also. Shaw is just a better ballplayer. This is the Cubs MO to overpay for “intangibles” …bc that worked out so well w Heyward.
“It would not be crazy to bet major decline and/or increased missed time due to injury sets in earlier than that.”
Nor would it be crazy to bet “the over”.
Assuming the Cubs have more information than anyone who’s writing (articles or comments) on MLBTR, we should assume that they are somewhere around the breakeven point.
You’re giving the Cubs and Jed Hoyer more credit than they deserve. Since being promoted to the POBO, Hoyer has outspent his division rivals by hundreds of millions of dollars and managed to engineer a string of unimpressive second place finishes.
With Hoyer in charge, the Cubs are MLB’s version of the Dallas Cowboys. They have immense popularity, lofty expectations, and nothing to show for it. The Ricketts get a lot of criticism, but their biggest failure is employing a below average front office and allowing them to spend their way to average results.
DO
“You’re giving the Cubs and Jed Hoyer more credit than they deserve”
“Assuming the Cubs have more information than anyone who’s writing (articles or comments) on MLBTR, we should assume that they are somewhere around the breakeven point.”
No
I have a bit more optimism in Pete Crow-Armstrong than what’s being discussed here. I believe PCA’s floor is Kevin Kiermaier.
If healthy, PCA should match Kiermaier’s glove in CF. He also figures to be more prolific on the bases and hit for more power. 🙂
PCA’s future upside will all depend on his ability to learn the strike zone. Some people can, Some can’t. Typical example would be the guy they traded to get him. Baez to this day hasn’t figured out how to swing at just strikes and never will. That ship sailed and is in Greenland. They just got a younger Baez. There’s still hope, He just needs to calm down and learn the strike zone.
Baez is an apt comparison. As long as Baez possessed elite athleticism, his results were solid. But that athleticism only had to regress a little for the results to crater. The same will likely be true for PCA. His game is so reliant on his elite athletic traits, I think it will be difficult for him to remain productive over the course of the extension.
It’s way too soon to doom and gloom the PCA deal. I think there’s just as good a chance he figures it out as there is he doesn’t. And I would add that I think the Hoerner deal was very smart. He’s certainly earning his check right now. I’m not a huge Hoyer fan but they’re elite up the middle and that’s something real to build on.
As a cubs fan im not worried about Nico at all. Like literally at all. Maybe a slight overpay? But he’d most likely get more in FA.
PCA is a fan favorite star with incredible defense. I like to think that as he matures, his bat will find more consistency. He can be a true 5 tool player if his discipline improves. Im cool with extending and taking that chance.
Bregman is a win-now type signing. Cubs know he can regress, but hes been remarkably consistent up to this point. He still plays great third, and his bat was pretty great for most of last year.
Cubs fans usually complain about lack of money spent. Should be grateful now
Torkelson is definitely the Tigers best first base option. His bat will come around, and his defense has been very good. Dan Dickerson recently quoted some lifelong baseball player-turned-coach saying Torkelson is the best in the game right now at scooping balls in the dirt. He is a much better defender than Keith, but Keith has a much higher upside with the back, which we are already seeing: .831 OPS this year… I think they both deserve to be playing, and I like Keith as a DH toward the top of the lineup…
Sal Bando: 15.1 WAR
Robin Ventura: 9.9 WAR
Ken Boyer: 17.4 WAR
Graig Nettles: 18.0 WAR
That is an average of 3 WAR per season from age 32-36. In 2025 dollars that is $30 million in on the field value for a $28 million cost. I would think that if the Cubs got that they would be very happy.