Entering 2025, no addition to the Dodgers was more hyped than young right-hander Roki Sasaki, who signed with the club in international free agency after a protracted recruitment process that involved nearly every team in baseball making an effort to land the talented righty after he was posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines.
If you had told baseball fans ahead of the 2025 campaign that the Dodgers would win the World Series, nearly all of them would’ve thought Sasaki would play a much bigger role in that success than he ended up with in reality. That’s not to say Sasaki didn’t contribute, of course. He was a key piece of the Dodgers bullpen during the postseason and pitched to a lights-out 0.84 ERA while collecting three saves in nine appearances during October. Before that, though, he had spent most of the season on the injured list after struggling badly early in the year with a 4.72 ERA and a 6.19 FIP across eight starts where he walked (22) nearly as many batters as he struck out (24).
Given Sasaki’s deep struggles in the rotation last year and his success when pitching out of the bullpen, it would’ve been understandable for fans to expect Sasaki to stay in the bullpen for 2026 while leaving the work in the rotation to more proven starters. That’s not the route the Dodgers ended up going, however, and Sasaki has been installed in the L.A. rotation even after a brutal Spring Training where he was tagged for 15 runs in four starts while walking 28.8% of his opponents and striking out just 23.1%. Spring Training results must be taken with a grain of salt, of course, but results that disastrous brought on by severe control issues can’t be ignored entirely.
It would’ve been easy to expect Sasaki’s rough stint in the rotation last year and his struggles during Spring Training to leave him floundering at the start of the season, but he only added to the enigma surrounding himself when he turned in a strong outing against the Guardians. Sasaki’s first MLB start this year saw him throw four innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts against two walks. An 11.1% walk rate and just four innings of work isn’t exactly what one would hope for from an arm as talented as Sasaki, but it’s undoubtedly a big step in the right direction. If he can keep the walks to a minimum and pitch a bit deeper into games, it’s not hard to imagine the right-hander proving to be a valuable asset to the Dodgers’ rotation mix this year.
Of course, this has all been under the assumption that he’ll stay healthy. That’s never been a safe bet for Sasaki. Prior to spending most of his rookie season in the majors on the injured list, he threw more than 100 innings just twice and topped out at just 129 1/3 frames during his time in Japan. That lack of durability raises some questions about Sasaki’s ability to make 25 to 30 starts at the big league level, even with lower pitch counts than is typically expected for MLB starters. On the other hand, one need look no further than Red Sox lefty Garrett Crochet for an example of a pitcher who struggled to stay on the field in his early years but now is coming off a season where he led the AL in innings pitched.
Even if he can stay healthy, a crowded Dodgers rotation could force him out of the starting group if he doesn’t perform. Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Blake Snell are all locked into rotation spots when healthy. That leaves just two spots in a six-man rotation for a group of young starting-capable arms that includes Emmet Sheehan, Landon Knack, Gavin Stone, Ben Casparius, Justin Wrobleski, River Ryan, and Kyle Hurt in addition to Sasaki. Not all of these players are healthy now and there figure to be injuries on the Dodgers’ pitching staff all throughout the year, but if Sasaki’s results wind up in a similar range as 2025, it might be hard for the front office to view him as one of their six best starters without a significant rash of injuries.
What are MLBTR readers expecting the Dodgers will get out of Roki Sasaki this year? Will he be able to provide 100 innings or more to the pitching staff? And how effective will the innings he does provide wind up being? Have your say in the polls below:
Over under 1.25 Miles Straw’s?
He’s the new Maeda
Probably ~120 innings of unspectacular pitching. He just needs to keep them in the game. No one is asking for an ace.
I’m really high on Sasaki so I’m going to say he posts a very good season this year.
Hey, I’m trying to eat lunch here
Trey Yesagage, Cam Schlittler, Cade Horton, Jacob Misiorowski say hi
This analysis is a classic case of missing the forest for the trees. First, Sasaki is only 24 years old. Most pitchers aren’t even out of the minor leagues by this age, so there is no “enigma” to him having ups and downs, as pitchers at this age are nearly always works in progress.
Second, his major challenge isn’t staying healthy (any more than it is for every other player), it’s developing a third quality pitch. He’s already got the hot four-seamer and the Bugs Bunny fork ball (or whatever that pitch is called), but two pitches aren’t enough to be a major league starter. He will stick in the majors and get in a lot of innings if that third pitch comes along. If not, he’ll go back to the minors for more instruction.
Finally, “hype” means exaggeration. What about Sasaki was exaggerated? When he was shopping for a major league team, everyone understood that his talent was young and raw. Even the player knew it and chose the Dodgers at least in part because of their advanced development tools.
So the real answer to the question isn’t in the poll because the real question isn’t in it.
honestly, in reading this it seems like Deeds is confusing expectations of Sasaki with those most had for Yamamoto. Very different expectations.
Sasaki, no matter the team he would have gone to, was always going to be slow-walked into MLB. He’s the very opposite of a guy with expectations of making a big immediate splash.
Do you happen to know if he’s developed a 3rd pitch into his repertoire for 2026?
And one more point: last year’s numbers for Sasaki hardly tell the story of his contributions to the team. Do the Dodgers win the World Series without him? Probably not. Another forest for trees issue.
@BlueSkies I wonder if they would have even made the WS without him. He pitched well in the LCS and was a beast in the LDS, zero runs allowed in three games with two saves and three key frames in the 11-inning game clincher against the Phils.
We all knew Sasaki would take time to develop. That was the plan. He’d prob get more starter reps if he signed elsewhere but he’ll be alright. Kim on the other hand definitely should’ve signed elsewhere