Heyman On Teixeira
With the trading deadline a mere two months away, we have to drum up some big names on which to speculate. The advent of no-trade clauses and the valuation of young pitching seems to have resulted in fewer blockbusters. Mark Teixeira seems to be this summer’s big name.
We last speculated about Teixeira two weeks ago. The Orioles and Nick Markakis were discussed, as well as the fit for the Angels. The Nationals were seen as a long shot. Jon Heyman has talked to some baseball execs on this topic, and he’s got more ideas. Heyman adds the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers to the mix as well.
The Yanks seemingly wouldn’t mind adding a major slugger at first base, and Heyman’s source doesn’t think they want Todd Helton. But unless the Yanks revert to their old ways and trade The Franchise – Phil Hughes – a Teixeira acquisition seems unlikely. The Yankees don’t have other elite pitching prospects. They would have to go to more established players. The Rangers don’t have a fit for Robinson Cano, though Chien-Ming Wang and his groundballing nature could work.
There’s no real reason for the Red Sox to give up the farm for Teixeira, unless they just want to keep him from the Yankees. I don’t see it.
The Dodgers I see as a strong player. James Loney plus one of their top-rated starting pitching prospects and it’s a done deal. I’m not sure Nomar can handle third base these days, but I don’t see that problem preventing a trade.
Back to the Orioles – as much as Teixeira is dying to play for them, he’s not going to take a big discount and the price in young players will be high. Then again, if the O’s could work something out involving Daniel Cabrera but not Markakis, that gamble could work for both clubs.
The Angels are a fantastic fit, but when has Bill Stoneman ever made a trade like this? I guess there’s a first time for everything.
Let’s not count out the Mets, Braves, or Tigers, either.
Hunter A Fit With Rangers
The Rangers need a long-term center fielder, and they play 45 minutes from Torii Hunter’s hometown. Seems like a perfect fit, right?
Maybe. But according to Hunter yesterday, his heart still lies in Minnesota. It seems that if the Twins can muster even a fairly competitive long-term offer for him, he’ll stay. Hunter’s next deal will cover his age 32-35 seasons, at the least. $13MM annually might be considered a discount. Will the Twins at least offer Hunter a Johnny Damon contract? Even if they did, he would have to turn a blind eye to more lucrative offers. I think some team would give him a fifth year, and $15MM a year seems plenty possible following a career season.
The Rangers could certainly use Hunter in the lineup, especially if they trade Mark Teixeira for pitching (as has been speculated). The team entered the season with a $71MM payroll, down from a high of $105MM in 2002. Money coming off the books in ’08: Gagne ($6MM+), Lofton ($6MM), Wilkerson ($4.35MM), Sosa (about $2.4MM), and Mahay ($1.2MM). That’s about $20MM, plus a random Jerry Hairston here and there. On the other hand, some players have escalating salaries for ’08: Millwood ($1MM), Padilla ($2MM), Teixeira ($2.6MM), Blalock ($1.2MM), plus various other minor increases and arb-eligible guys. Still, the Rangers should clear about $13MM even if they keep Teixeira, meaning there is definitely room for Hunter in the payroll.
I should add that if Alex Rodriguez becomes a free agent, that’s $27MM saved for Texas.
Will Gagne Become Trade Bait?
Rangers closer Eric Gagne has quietly tossed 7.1 scoreless innings this season. He hasn’t pitched back-to-back days since returning from a hip injury, but the Rangers haven’t been winning much either. At 17-27, the Rangers are battling with the Royals for the worst record in the American League.
T.R. Sullivan writes in today’s mailbag that beyond Mark Teixeira, Gagne is the obvious candidate to be traded this July. Gagne is on a low-risk one year deal for $6MM, plus many tiers of incentives based on games finished and awards. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Gagne also has "no-trade protection." I’ll have to do some digging to try to determine exactly what that means.
Stark’s Latest
Jayson Stark posted a new Rumblings and Grumblings column over at ESPN; it’s definitely worth a read. A summary of his trade rumors:
- GMs calling the Marlins have noticed that the team seems a little more open to trading Dontrelle Willis this year. Miguel Cabrera doesn’t appear to be under discussion. If the Marlins are out of the race in mid-July and a team ponies up with three legimate young regulars, they might be able to pry him away. The D’Backs or Dodgers could probably pull this off without damaging their current group too much.
- Stark says the D-Rays are considering promoting both Evan Longoria and Reid Brignac before the trading deadline, filling out the left side of their infield. Someone would have to be pushed out; maybe B.J. Upton to center, Akinori Iwamura to second, and Rocco Baldelli to another team. Stark reminds us of past interest by the Red Sox. And don’t forget all the interest from Atlanta in December.
- The Rich Harden trade rumors may just reflect frustration on Billy Beane’s part, and not actual availability.
- Stark also debates whether the Rangers would still be on the hook for $21MM if Alex Rodriguez opts out and then the Yankees re-sign him. Right now it’s an open question.
Perrotto’s Latest
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has quickly become another fine source for trade rumors. Some highlights from his latest column:
- The Twins would surrender a solid arm – maybe Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, or Scott Baker – in return for a right-handed hitter. My own speculation: perhaps Wayne Krivsky, looking to stabilize his bullpen, would trade Edwin Encarnacion for Rincon. Rincon has been one of the best setup men in baseball for the past four years. On the other hand, Baker could really flourish in the National League and Kyle Lohse may leave via free agency after the season. Terry Ryan might want a more proven, reliable bat though. Buster Olney throws out Morgan Ensberg‘s name in his blog today.
- Some clubs already have center fielder Torii Hunter on the radar: the Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, and Rangers. I think there is no doubt the Rangers go in for one of the "name" center fielders this winter. I can see the Red Sox testing the waters but it would seem odd to block Jacoby Ellsbury for four or five years. Hunter is making the contract year argument, hitting .324/.358/.618 in 35 games. His previous career high in slugging was .524 in ’02.
- Perrotto confirms the finding of Michael Gluskin – Odalis Perez and Chan Ho Park are two names on the Orioles’ target list of starting pitchers. The O’s might have found some relief in the shrewd Jeremy Guthrie pickup – his last two starts against the Devil Rays and Red Sox were excellent.
Mark Teixeira Trade Speculation
Interesting trade speculation from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News in Wednesday’s Q&A. If the Rangers – currently 14-20 – slide further out of contention, they could consider trading 27 year-old first baseman Mark Teixeira this summer. According to Grant, the bounty would have to include pitching and a Major League-ready first baseman or outfielder.
We know Baltimore covets Teixeira, so Grant’s idea of Nick Markakis and a pitcher for Teixeira could make sense on the surface. The first baseman becomes a free agent after the 2008 season, but I don’t see the Orioles sitting down with Scott Boras and working out an eight-year extension. I’m surprised we haven’t seen Teixeira’s name connected to the Angels yet; they’ve got the talent, the need, and the history of tolerating Scott Boras.
You may recall a Ken Rosenthal article from mid-March, where he paints Baltimore as quite anxious to acquire Teixeira. Rosenthal also throws the Nats into the mix since he’s a Maryland native and the team’s new ballpark will be opening. As I noted a while back, Teixeira won’t be a free agent this offseason but he won’t come cheap in ’08. His salary could jump from $9MM this year to $15MM or so through arbitration.
Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More
Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.
- Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending. The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter. I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations. Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
- Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka. In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too. The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past. I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
- The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available. Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described. And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today.
- Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins. Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.
Rockies Trade Rumors
The Rockies have several rumors cooking on the hot stove as we approach the season.
First there’s infielder Clint Barmes, recently demoted to Triple A. Patrick Saunders writes that the Rangers are still interested, but the Rockies are asking for too much given his performance last year. A few days ago Ken Rosenthal linked the Twins, Cubs, Marlins, and Royals to Barmes. I imagine the Royals are no longer interested.
Saunders also reports that the Rangers are out on Byung-Hyun Kim. The unhappy pitcher could still end up in Oakland or Pittsburgh.
Also, as reported a week ago, the Rockies have liked Mark Hendrickson for some time and could swing a deal with the Dodgers.
Lieber, Kim Rumors
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post has some trade rumor tidbits from around baseball this morning. To summarize:
- Renck does not think the Phils truly want to use Jon Lieber as a reliever, and mentions two scenarios floating around. Lieber could be paired with Aaron Rowand and sent to the White Sox, which I would think would require at least Mike MacDougal. Would be interesting to see Liebs back in Chicago if old pals KW and "Stand Pat" Gillick can work it out. Or, he could go to Milwaukee for Kevin Mench. Such a trade would have to push Claudio Vargas to the bullpen.
- Renck says the Rockies like Mark Hendrickson despite his mediocrity and their stable of starters. The Dodgers would like to include Hendrickson as part of a bigger deal for a slugger.
- Byung-Hyun Kim to Florida is a long shot unless the Rox eat most of his $2.5MM salary. The Rocky Mountain News reiterates that the interested parties are Florida, Oakland, and Texas. You can add the Pirates to that list as well. The Bucs could also trade for Armando Benitez.
- John Thomson seems likely to be released. The A’s have been rumored.
Ken Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has been hard at work with his sources, and he has a new article at FOX Sports. Some highlights:
- The Marlins and Dodgers are interested in Byung-Hyun Kim as a reliever, and the A’s could add him as the fifth starter instead of Joe Kennedy. Kim, a 28 year-old sidearmer, hasn’t closed since ’03 with Boston. A trade to Florida would make him the ninth inning favorite though. He’ll earn $2.5MM this year.
- The Rockies like Mark Hendrickson of L.A., and they may release Josh Fogg this spring. I wouldn’t discard Kim while acquiring Hendrickson; Kim projects as a slightly better pitcher. Advantages to acquiring Hendrickson from Dan O’Dowd’s point of view: a slightly better groundball rate and two years remaining until free agency.
- The Blue Jays want to give Josh Towers a rotation spot. Towers has nine Ks in nine innings this spring while allowing two runs. Does spring training really have that kind of influence on a team’s decision-makers? Towers will make $2.9MM this season, but he’s still pretty far from free agency. The Jays would like to trade John Thomson; otherwise they may release him. As a newly signed free agent Thomson can veto any deal. He’d be wise to take a trade to the NL, in my opinion.
- Rosenthal thinks the Orioles and Nationals will be competing for Mark Teixeira, who will become a free agent after the 2008 season. Tex is a Maryland native, which usually doesn’t matter for a Boras client. But Boras might actually be able to use this to get the two clubs bidding against each other.